African Swine Fever Re-Emerging in Estonia: The Role of Seropositive Wild Boar from an Epidemiological Perspective.

African swine fever (ASF) emerged in Estonia in 2014. From February 2019 to August 2020, no pigs or wild boar tested positive for ASF virus (ASFV), only ASFV-specific antibodies could be detected in shot wild boar. However, ASF recently re-emerged in wild boar. We tested three hypotheses that might explain the current situation: (i) ASFV may have been present throughout, but at a prevalence below the detection limit; (ii) seropositive wild boar may have remained infectious (i.e., virus-carriers) and kept the epidemic going; or (iii) ASF was gone for 1.5 years, but was recently re-introduced. Using Estonian surveillance data, the sensitivity of the surveillance system and the confidence in freedom from ASF were estimated. Furthermore, the detection probability was determined and cluster analyses were performed to investigate the role of serological positive wild boar. The results suggest that the surveillance system was not able to detect virus circulation at a design prevalence below 1%. With respect to the confidence in freedom from ASF, the results indicate that circulating virus should have been detected over time, if the prevalence was ≥2%. However, the decreasing wild boar population density and ongoing surveillance activities made ASFV circulation at a low prevalence unlikely. Cluster analyses provided no evidence for a significant accumulation of serologically positive wild boar in temporal connection to the re-emergence of ASFV. Further targeted research, such as long-term experimental studies and molecular epidemiology, is necessary to improve our knowledge on the epidemiology of ASF and to control the disease more effectively.

The Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 within the Dog Population in Croatia: Host Factors and Clinical Outcome.

Over a year into the COVID-19 pandemic, there is growing evidence that SARS-CoV-2 infections among dogs are more common than previously thought. In this study, the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was investigated in two dog populations. The first group was comprised of 1069 dogs admitted to the Veterinary Teaching Hospital for any given reason. The second group included dogs that shared households with confirmed COVID-19 cases in humans. This study group numbered 78 dogs. In COVID-19 infected households, 43.9% tested ELISA positive, and neutralising antibodies were detected in 25.64% of dogs. Those data are comparable with the secondary attack rate in the human population. With 14.69% of dogs in the general population testing ELISA positive, there was a surge of SARS-CoV-2 infections within the dog population amid the second wave of the pandemic. Noticeably seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the dog and the human population did not differ at the end of the study period. Male sex, breed and age were identified as significant risk factors. This study gives strong evidence that while acute dog infections are mostly asymptomatic, they can pose a significant risk to dog health. Due to the retrospective nature of this study, samples for viral isolation and PCR were unavailable. Still, seropositive dogs had a 1.97 times greater risk for developing central nervous symptoms.

No Evidence of O'nyong-nyong Viremia among Children with Febrile Illness in Kenya (2015-2018).

O'nyong-nyong virus (ONNV) is a little-known arbovirus causing intermittent, yet explosive, outbreaks in Africa. It is closely related to chikungunya virus, an emerging infectious disease. O'nyong-nyong virus causes a self-limited illness characterized by bilateral polyarthritis, rash, low-grade fever, and lymphadenopathy. In 1959, an extensive outbreak of ONNV occurred in East Africa, and decades later, another large outbreak was documented in Uganda in 1996. Limited evidence for interepidemic transmission is available, although serologic studies indicate a high prevalence of exposure. 1,045 febrile child participants in western and coastal Kenya were tested for the presence of ONNV using a multiplexed real-time reverse transcriptase-PCR assay. More than half of the participants had malaria parasitemia, and there was no evidence of active ONNV viremia in these participants. Further work is required to better understand the interepidemic circulation of ONNV and to reconcile evidence of high serologic exposure to ONNV among individuals in East Africa.

Use of a rapid electronic survey methodology to estimate blood donors' potential exposure to emerging infectious diseases: Application of a statistically representative sampling methodology to assess risk in US blood centers.

Risk assessments of transfusion-transmitted emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are complicated by the fact that blood donors' demographics and behaviors can be different from the general population. Therefore, when assessing potential blood donor exposure to EIDs, the use of general population characteristics, such as U.S. travel statistics, may invoke uncertainties that result in inaccurate estimates of blood donor exposure. This may, in turn, lead to the creation of donor deferral policies that do not match actual risk. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This article reports on the development of a system to rapidly assess EID risks for a nationally representative portion of the U.S. blood donor population. To assess the effectiveness of this system, a test survey was developed and deployed to a statistically representative sample frame of blood donors from five blood collecting organizations. Donors were directed to an online survey to ascertain their recent travel and potential exposure to Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). RESULTS: A total of 7128 responses were received from 54 256 invitations. The age-adjusted estimated total number of blood donors potentially exposed to MERS-CoV was approximately 15 640 blood donors compared to a lower U.S. general population-based estimate of 9610 blood donors. CONCLUSION: The structured donor demographic sample-based data provided an assessment of blood donors' potential exposure to an emerging pathogen that was 63% larger than the U.S. population-based estimate. This illustrates the need for tailored blood donor-based EID risk assessments that provide more specific demographic risk intelligence and can inform appropriate regulatory decision making.

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome: a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiology, clinical signs, routine laboratory diagnosis, risk factors, and outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease with the high case-fatality rate, and lack of vaccines. We aimed to systematically analysed the epidemiological characteristics, clinical signs, routine laboratory diagnosis, risk factors, and outcomes. METHODS: Documents on SFTS were collected by searching the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wan Fang Data, PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases from 2011 to 2018. Meta-analysis was performed by using Review Manager and Stata software. RESULTS: Twenty-five articles involving 4143 cases were included. Diarrhea (odds ratio (OR) =1.60, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06 to 2.42, P = 0.02), and vomiting (OR = 1.56, 95% CI: 1.01 to 2.39, P = 0.04) on admission were associated with the fatal outcomes of SFTS. Compared to patients with mild symptoms, patients with severe symptoms had significantly elevated levels of lactic acid dehydrogenase (standard mean difference (SMD) =1.27, 95% CI: 0.59 to 1.94), alanine aminotransferase (SMD = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.24 to 0.85), aspirate aminotransferase (SMD = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.69 to 1.32), and creatine kinase (SMD = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.74 to 1.33) but had reduced platelet counts (SMD = -0.87, 95% CI: - 1.16 to - 0.58) and albumin levels (SMD = -1.00, 95% CI: - 1.32 to - 0.68). The risk factors for poor prognosis included age (mean difference (MD) =6.88, 95% CI: 5.41 to 8.35) and farming (OR = 2.01, 95% CI: 1.06 to 3.80). For the risk factors of contracting SFTS, the incidence of SFTS related to tick bites was 24% [95% CI: 0.18 to 0.31]. The pooled case-fatality rate of SFTS patients was 18% [95% CI: 0.16 to 0.21]. CONCLUSIONS: China is the country with the highest incidence of SFTS. May to July was the peak of the epidemic, and farmers were a high-risk group. The risk factor for SFTS included age (poor prognosis) and tick bites (contracting SFTS). Patients with severe diarrhea and vomiting symptoms on admission should be noted. Clinicians could use routine laboratory parameters and clinical symptoms as references for clinically suspected cases, classification of SFTS, and timely treatment, especially in basic hospitals.

Prediction Rule for Scrub Typhus Meningoencephalitis in Children: Emerging Disease in North India.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the proportion of scrub typhus meningoencephalitis among children with acute encephalitis syndrome and to outline its differentiating features. To develop a prediction rule for scrub typhus meningoencephalitis. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted at a tertiary care public hospital in Northern India. Consecutive patients of acute encephalitis syndrome who met our inclusion criteria were enrolled over 2 years. Standardized workup including serum IgM against Orientia tsutsugamushi was performed. Clinical and laboratory features were compared between IgM-positive and IgM-negative patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the score derived from "independent predictors" was measured. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratios were calculated at different cut-offs of the score. RESULTS: Scrub typhus IgM enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was positive in 66/352 patients (18.8%). Longer duration of fever and prodromal stage along with eschar, hepatomegaly, lymphadenopathy, and pneumonia were significantly more prevalent in scrub typhus meningoencephalitis. However, petechiae were frequent in non-scrub typhus patients. Leucocytosis, lymphocytosis, thrombocytopenia, hypoalbuminemia, and elevated levels of serum bilirubin, serum transaminases, and cerebrospinal fluid protein were associated with scrub typhus meningoencephalitis. Logistic regression revealed fever for >8 days, pneumonia, absence of petechiae, cerebrospinal fluid protein >1000 mg/L, and serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase >100 IU/L as independent "predictors" of scrub typhus meningoencephalitis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% confidence interval) of the prediction score was 0.832 (0.78-0.89). Score at cutoff ≥1 had 91% sensitivity, 96.1% negative predictive value, and at cutoff ≥4 had 99.7% specificity, 88.9% positive predictive value, 83.1% negative predictive value, 40.3 positive likelihood ratio, 0.88 negative likelihood ratio for identifying scrub typhus meningoencephalitis. CONCLUSION: Prediction score may help physicians in peripheral areas to identify and treat scrub typhus meningoencephalitis, an emerging cause of acute encephalitis syndrome in India.

Reconstructing Mayaro virus circulation in French Guiana shows frequent spillovers.

Characterizing the circulation of Mayaro virus (MAYV), an emerging arbovirus threat, is essential for risk assessment but challenging due to cross-reactivity with other alphaviruses such as chikungunya virus (CHIKV). Here, we develop an analytical framework to jointly assess MAYV epidemiology and the extent of cross-reactivity with CHIKV from serological data collected throughout French Guiana (N = 2697). We find strong evidence of an important sylvatic cycle for MAYV with most infections occurring near the natural reservoir in rural areas and in individuals more likely to go to the forest (i.e., adult males) and with seroprevalences of up to 18% in some areas. These findings highlight the need to strengthen MAYV surveillance in the region and showcase how modeling can improve interpretation of cross-reacting assays.

Emerging tick-borne diseases and blood safety: summary of a public workshop.

Tick-borne agents of disease continue to emerge and subsequently expand their geographic distribution. The threat to blood safety by tick-borne agents is ever increasing and requires constant surveillance concomitant with implementation of appropriate intervention methods. In April 2017, the Food and Drug Administration organized a public workshop on emerging tick-borne pathogens (excluding Babesia microti and Lyme disease) designed to provide updates on the current understanding of emerging tick-borne diseases, thereby allowing for extended discussions to determine if decisions regarding mitigation strategies need to be made proactively. Subject matter experts and other stakeholders participated in this workshop to discuss issues of biology, epidemiology, and clinical burden of tick-borne agents, risk of transfusion-transmission, surveillance, and considerations for decision making in implementing safety interventions. Herein, we summarize the scientific presentations, panel discussions, and considerations going forward.

Genomic and Phylogenetic Analysis of Zika Virus Isolates from Asymptomatic Blood Donors in the United States and Puerto Rico, 2016.

Zika virus (ZIKV) caused a public health threat in the United States in 2016, leading to rapid development and implementation of blood screening assays for ZIKV RNA. Several ZIKV sequences from clinical cases have been reported, but none from asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic infections. We isolated and sequenced ZIKV from asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic blood donor (ABD-ZIKV) samples and compared with reported clinical sequences. Twelve ABD-ZIKV isolates were produced from 67 cultivated samples, and isolates were genetically similar among themselves. Most isolates shared mutations with the clinical isolate PRVABC59 2015, whereas two ABD-ZIKV isolates shared specific mutations with U.S. clinical isolates from 2016. The ABD-ZIKV strains clustered into two distinct subclades: one comprised mostly ABD-ZIKV from Puerto Rico, and another one comprised ABD-ZIKV from Florida and QTX-02 isolate (Puerto Rico). In this study, we showed the circulation of two slightly distinct virus strains among Puerto Rico blood donors, one of which was also reported in Florida.

Rapid Evolution of H7N9 Highly Pathogenic Viruses that Emerged in China in 2017.

H7N9 low pathogenic influenza viruses emerged in China in 2013 and mutated to highly pathogenic strains in 2017, resulting in human infections and disease in chickens. To control spread, a bivalent H5/H7 inactivated vaccine was introduced in poultry in September 2017. To monitor virus evolution and vaccine efficacy, we collected 53,884 poultry samples across China from February 2017 to January 2018. We isolated 252 H7N9 low pathogenic viruses, 69 H7N9 highly pathogenic viruses, and one H7N2 highly pathogenic virus, of which two low pathogenic and 14 highly pathogenic strains were collected after vaccine introduction. Genetic analysis of highly pathogenic strains revealed nine genotypes, one of which is predominant and widespread and contains strains exhibiting high virulence in mice. Additionally, some H7N9 and H7N2 viruses carrying duck virus genes are lethal in ducks. Thus, although vaccination reduced H7N9 infections, the increased virulence and expanded host range to ducks pose new challenges.