Spatio-temporal characterization of earthquake sequence parameters and forecasting of strong aftershocks in Xinjiang based on the ETAS model.

In this paper, the Integrated Nested Laplace Algorithm (INLA) is applied to the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, and the parameters of the ETAS model are obtained for the earthquake sequences active in different regions of Xinjiang. By analyzing the characteristics of the model parameters over time, the changes in each earthquake sequence are studied in more detail. The estimated values of the ETAS model parameters are used as inputs to forecast strong aftershocks in the next period. We find that there are significant differences in the aftershock triggering capacity and aftershock attenuation capacity of earthquake sequences in different seismic regions of Xinjiang. With different cutoff dates set, we observe the characteristics of the earthquake sequence parameters changing with time after the mainshock occurs, and the model parameters of the Ms7.3 earthquake sequence in Hotan region change significantly with time within 15 days after the earthquake. Compared with the MCMC algorithm, the ETAS model fitted with the INLA algorithm can forecast the number of earthquakes in the early period after the occurrence of strong aftershocks more effectively and can forecast the sudden occurrence time of earthquakes more accurately.

Experimental study on the effect of different cement content on the improvement of dynamic characteristics of seismic-prone poor soil.

The improvement of sandy soils with poor seismic properties to modify their dynamic characteristics is of great importance in seismic design for engineering sites. In this study, a series of dynamic tests on sandy soils sandy soils with poor seismic conditions were conducted using the GCTS resonant column system to investigate the improvements effects of different cement contents on dynamic characteristic parameters. The research findings are as follows: The cement content has certain influences on the dynamic shear modulus, dynamic shear modulus ratio, the maximum dynamic shear modulus, and the damping ratio of sandy soils with poor seismic properties. Among them, the influence on dynamic shear modulus is limited, while the damping ratio is significantly affected. The addition of cement to seismic-poor sandy soils significantly enhances their dynamic characteristics. The most noticeable improvement is observed when the cement content is 8%. Through curve fitting analysis, a relationship equation is established between the maximum dynamic shear modulus and the cement content, and the relevant parameters are provided. A comparative test between the improved soils and the remolded soils reveals that the addition of cement significantly improves the seismic performance of the poor soils. The recommended values for the range of variation of the dynamic shear modulus ratio and damping ratio are provided, considering the effect of improvement. These research findings provide reference guidelines for seismic design and engineering sites.

Primary care clinic visits in formerly evacuated areas due to radiation disaster following the Great East Japan Earthquake: A retrospective descriptive study.

Radiation disasters pose distinctive medical challenges, requiring diverse care approaches. Beyond radiation exposure assessment, addressing health impacts due to lifestyle changes, especially among vulnerable populations, is vital. Evacuation orders issued in radiation-affected areas introduce unique healthcare dynamics, with their duration significantly influencing the recovery process. Understanding evolving patient demographics and medical needs after lifting evacuation orders is crucial for post-disaster care planning. Minamisoma Municipal Odaka Hospital, located 13 to 20 km from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear power plant in a post-evacuation zone, was greatly affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent radiation disaster. Data were retrospectively collected from patient records, including age, gender, visit date, diagnoses, and addresses. Patient records from April 2014 to March 2020 were analyzed, comparing data before and after the July 2016 evacuation order lift. Data was categorized into pre and post-evacuation order lifting periods, using International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Edition codes, to identify the top diseases. Statistical analyses, including χ-square tests, assessed changes in disease distributions. Population data for Odaka Ward and Minamisoma City fluctuated after lifting evacuation orders. As of March 11, 2011, Odaka Ward had 12,842 residents (27.8% aged 65+ years), dropping to 8406 registered residents and 2732 actual residents by April 30, 2018 (49.7%). Minamisoma City also saw declines, with registered residents decreasing from 71,561 (25.9%) to 61,049 (34.1%). The study analyzed 11,100 patients, mostly older patients (75.1%), between 2014 and 2020. Post-lifting, monthly patient numbers surged from an average of 55.2 to 213.5, with female patients increasing from 33.8% to 51.7%. Disease patterns shifted, with musculoskeletal cases declining from 23.8% to 13.0%, psychiatric disorders increasing from 9.3% to 15.4%, and trauma-related cases decreasing from 14.3% to 3.9%. Hypertension (57.1%) and dyslipidemia (29.2%) prevailed post-lifting. Urgent cases decreased from 1.3% to 0.1%. This study emphasizes the importance of primary care in post-evacuation zones, addressing diverse medical needs, including trauma, noncommunicable diseases, and psychiatric disorders. Changing patient demographics require adaptable healthcare strategies and resource allocation to meet growing demands. Establishing a comprehensive health maintenance system tailored to these areas' unique challenges is crucial for future disaster recovery efforts.

Comprehensive analysis of air pollution and the influence of meteorological factors: a case study of adiyaman province.

Adiyaman, a city recently affected by an earthquake, is facing significant air pollution challenges due to both anthropogenic activities and natural events. The sources of air pollution have been investigated using meteorological variables. Elevated southerly winds, especially prominent in spring and autumn, significantly contribute to dust transport, leading to a decline in local air quality as detected by the HYSPLIT model. Furthermore, using Suomi-NPP Thermal Anomaly satellite product, it is detected and analyzed for crop burning activities. Agricultural practices, including stubble burning, contribute to the exacerbation of PM10 pollution during the summer months, particularly when coupled with winds from all directions except the north. In fall and winter months, heating is identified as the primary cause of pollution. The city center located north of the station is the dominant source of pollution throughout all seasons. The study established the connection between air pollutants and meteorological variables. Furthermore, the Spearman correlation coefficients reveal associations between PM10 and SO2, indicating moderate positive correlations under pressure conditions (r = 0.35, 0.52). Conversely, a negative correlation is observed with windspeed (r = -0.35, -0.50), and temperature also exhibits a negative correlation (r = -0.39, -0.54). During atmospheric conditions with high pressure, PM10 and SO2 concentrations are respectively 41.2% and 117.2% higher. Furthermore, pollutant concentration levels are 29.2% and 53.3% higher on days with low winds. Last, practical strategies for mitigating air pollution have been thoroughly discussed and proposed. It is imperative that decision-makers engaged in city planning and renovation give careful consideration to the profound impact of air pollution on both public health and the environment, particularly in the aftermath of a recent major earthquake.

Aftermath Türkiye's double earthquake: detailed analysis of fracture characteristics and acute management from a level I trauma center.

BACKGROUND: This research investigated surgical interventions for the treatment of extremity and pelvic fractures and aimed to provide an analysis of management challenges under crisis conditions in a Level I Trauma Center after Türkiye's February 6, 2023, earthquakes. METHODS: The study was a retrospective examination of the medical records of 243 fracture cases associated with the earthquakes. The age, gender, time of admission, types of extremity and pelvic fractures, anatomical localizations, and surgical treatment methods for fractures were recorded. The results of these parameters were evaluated in detail, together with the results of other surgical treatments performed in the hospital in the first week after the disaster, such as fasciotomy, amputation, and wound debridement. RESULTS: Most of the 243 (119 males and 124 females) patients with extremity fractures and pelvic fractures receiving surgical treatment were adults (n = 182, 74.9%). The most common lower extremity fractures among all fracture cases were tibial shaft (30.8%) and femoral shaft (20.6%) fractures. A total of 33 patients had surgical procedures for the treatment of two or more significant bone fractures involving either the extremity or the pelvic ring. The analysis showed that the median age of patients who underwent surgery due to extremity and pelvic fractures was 36 years, with a range of 1 to 91 years, which was statistically increased compared to patients who received surgery for other musculoskeletal injuries such as fasciotomy, amputation and debridement (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Fractures were one of the most common musculoskeletal injuries in the first days after earthquakes, and the management of fractures differs significantly from soft tissue injuries and amputation surgeries as they require implants, special instruments, and imaging devices. The delivery of healthcare is often critically impaired after a severe earthquake. Shortages of consumables such as orthopedic implants, power drills, fluoroscopy equipment, and the need for additional staff should be addressed immediately after the earthquake, ideally by the end of the first day.

Relationship Between Disaster Response Self-Efficacy and Disaster Preparedness in Nursing Students: After-Earthquake Study.

OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted to reveal the relationship between nursing students' disaster response self-efficacy and their disaster preparedness perceptions. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted on nursing students after a major earthquake that occurred in Turkey on February 6, 2023 (n = 302). Data collection took place from June 2023 to October 2023, using the Disaster Response Self-Efficacy Scale (DRSES) and Disaster Preparedness Perception Scale (DPPS). Descriptive statistics, independent samples t-test, correlation, and multiple linear regression analysis were used to analyze the data. RESULTS: Nursing students' DRSES mean score was 63.35 ± 10.83 (moderate level) and DPPS mean score was 3.41 ± 0.50 (high level). A positive and moderate correlation was found between nursing students' DRSES and DPPS scores (r = 0.515; P = 0.000). Predictors affecting nursing students' disaster preparedness are disaster response self-efficacy score, being male, and making a family disaster plan. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study highlight the importance of increasing the disaster response self-efficacy needed by nursing students to successfully assist patients in disaster situations.

Seismic performance of soft soil foundation with a new type of assembled wall tuned mass damper.

The design of tuned mass damper (TMD) parameters is influenced by the soil-structure-TMD coupling system; thus, it is important to consider the soil-structure interaction (SSI) for the vibration control effect of the TMD. Recently, the acquisition of TMD parameters considering soil-structure interactions has only remained at the theoretical stage, lacking relevant experimental verification. Traditional TMD face the problems of occupying a large building space, increasing construction costs, and non-replaceable components. In this study, an assembled wall-type damping TMD was designed. By comparing the dynamic response of the uncontrolled and controlled structures equipped with the newly assembled wall-type damping TMD in the shaking table test on a soft soil foundation, we analyzed whether the SSI effect was considered in the TMD design parameters on the damping effect of the newly assembled wall-type tuned mass damper. The TMD parameters optimized using the artificial intelligence algorithm were verified experimentally. The results indicated that the traditional TMD design parameters were discordant because the SSI effect was not considered. The SSI effect in the soil effectively reduces the dynamic response of the superstructure. By considering the SSI effect and improving the multi-population genetic algorithm, a wall-type damping TMD with optimized parameters can achieve a good damping effect.

Placing engineering in the earthquake response and the survival chain.

Earthquakes injure millions and simultaneously disrupt the infrastructure to protect them. This perspective argues that the current post-disaster investigation paradigm is insufficient to protect communities' health effectively. We propose the Earthquake Survival Chain as a framework to change the current engineering focus on infrastructure to health. This framework highlights four converging research opportunities to advance understanding of earthquake injuries, search and rescue, patient mobilizations, and medical treatment. We offer an interdisciplinary research agenda in engineering and health sciences, including artificial intelligence and virtual reality, to protect health and life from earthquakes.

Dreaming of a Bright Future: Statistics, Disaster, and the Birth of Energopolitics in 1930s Chile.

In 1939, directly after the worst earthquake in the country's history, the Chilean state began implementing an electrification program. This plan shaped energy goals for years to come and defined the interconnected grid that dominates the country's energy infrastructure today. Based on extensive archival work, this article describes the birth of energopolitics in the country, using technology sociologist Michel Callon's notion of "interessement" to describe the strategies of a group of engineers who acted as system builders. Their four main strategies were embracing technological futurisms, forging heterogeneous networks, articulating and mobilizing knowledge, and using crises as windows of opportunity for change. The article shows not only the historical impact of past energy choices on today's world but also that current challenges to energy transitions are not without precedent. Using a sociological framework to tell this story allows us to highlight the mechanisms through which energy systems can change.

Sociopolitical Factors and Mental Health Following the Turkey-Syria Earthquake.

This survey study evaluates the association between sociopolitical factors and mental health following the 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquake.

Rapid determination of seismic influence field based on mobile communication big data-A case study of the Luding Ms 6.8 earthquake in Sichuan, China.

Smartphone location data provide the most direct field disaster distribution data with low cost and high coverage. The large-scale continuous sampling of mobile device location data provides a new way to estimate the distribution of disasters with high temporal-spatial resolution. On September 5, 2022, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck Luding County, Sichuan Province, China. We quantitatively analyzed the Ms 6.8 earthquake from both temporal and geographic dimensions by combining 1,806,100 smartphone location records and 4,856 spatial grid locations collected through communication big data with the smartphone data under 24-hour continuous positioning. In this study, the deviation of multidimensional mobile terminal location data is estimated, and a methodology to estimate the distribution of out-of-service communication base stations in the disaster area by excluding micro error data users is explored. Finally, the mathematical relationship between the seismic intensity and the corresponding out-of-service rate of communication base stations is established, which provides a new technical concept and means for the rapid assessment of post-earthquake disaster distribution.

The relationship between earthquake-induced post-traumatic stress disorder and breastfeeding attitude and behavior.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the prevalence and severity of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and analyze the relationship between PTSD and breastfeeding attitudes and behaviors among breastfeeding mothers and women with children aged 0-24 months, all of whom had experienced the earthquake. METHODS: In this cross-sectional survey, a face-to-face questionnaire was administered to 173 earthquake survivors in Adiyaman, Turkey, during June and July 2023. The PTSD Checklist-Civilian scale was used to assess the presence of PTSD, while the Breastfeeding Attitudes of the Evaluation Scale (BAES) was employed to evaluate breastfeeding behaviors in mothers. RESULTS: Significantly higher PTSD scores (47.6 ± 17.4) were found among women staying in tents, while lower scores (37.0 ± 16.4) were observed in those who continued breastfeeding. 78.6% of women reported decreased breast milk because of the earthquake. Mothers with reduced milk supply had higher PTSD scores (46.1 ± 17.3). Breastfeeding training was associated with higher BAES scores (106.8 ± 56.8) and lower PTSD scores (32.5 ± 11.0). A significant negative correlation was observed between the PTSD score and BAES (r = -0.742; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrated that breastfeeding may protect mothers against PTSD in the aftermath of earthquakes, emphasizing the importance of breastfeeding education. The higher frequency and severity of PTSD observed among earthquake survivor mothers residing in tents underscores the importance of promptly transitioning to permanent housing after the earthquake.

Gratitude practice helps undergraduates who experienced an earthquake in China find meaning in life.

This study was conducted following a magnitude 6.8 earthquake that occurred in early September 2022, coinciding with the commencement of a positive psychology course for the affected students. A sample of 479 Chinese undergraduates was recruited for an intervention focused on weekly gratitude practice. Data were collected through an online questionnaire package at 3 time points: the first week of the course (Time 1), the fifth week (Time 2), and the ninth week (Time 3), assessing gratitude, learning engagement, and the meaning of life. Findings revealed that gratitude significantly predicted meaning in life through learning engagement over time. This highlights the significant mediating role of learning engagement in the context of earthquakes and provides insights for positive interventions aimed at facilitating personal growth among emerging adults in higher educational settings, particularly those who have experienced traumatic events such as earthquakes.

After an Earthquake: The Comparison of Psychological Status of Resident and Earthquake Survivor Cancer Patients.

OBJECTIVE: Natural disasters such as earthquakes can have a significant impact on cancer treatment and care. The objective of the study was to evaluate the psychological effect of the earthquake on survivor cancer patients compared to regular cancer patients. METHODS: Cancer patients who were evacuated from earthquake sites and referred for the continuation of their treatment, as well as regular resident patients were included in the study. The resident cancer patients were compared with the study population as a control group. DASS-21 forms were filled based on patients' declarations. RESULTS: Forty-six patients were earthquake survivors and 55 were resident cancer patients. Stress scores were significantly higher in earthquake survivors (P = 0.021). In contrast, there was no difference in stratified groups due to DASS-21 categorization in stress scores while depression and anxiety subgroups had significant differences (P = 0.012; P < 0.001). Also, women significantly had a worse outcome in the depression and anxiety categories (P = 0.028; P = 0.021) while no difference was observed in men. CONCLUSION: Recent earthquakes in Turkey had psychological negative effects on oncology patients. The increased stress, depression, and anxiety levels were observed in earthquake survivors who were evacuated from the disaster zone and compared to the control group.

Evaluation of Incoming Messages to WhatsApp Communication Network Created by Volunteers in Major Disasters: The Case of Turkey Earthquake.

OBJECTIVE: This research was conducted in order to assess the 1-week aid needs determined by the health professional who voluntarily served in the WhatsApp communication network during the earthquakes in Kahramanmaras, Turkey. METHODS: This descriptive retrospective epidemiological study focuses on the 1-week messaging activities of the WhatsApp group created by volunteers after the earthquake in Turkey. During the 7-day period included in the research, a total of 5813 messages were sent. 3472 of these messages were not included in the research for various reasons, and a total of 2341 messages were used for the research. RESULTS: In all 7 days, it was seen that most of the messages were sent via text message and that voice messages were very few. When the distribution of the needs demanded by the earthquake victims for 7 days was examined, it was seen that there was a significant increase in the needs on the fourth day after the earthquake, and that the highest increase was the need for tents. CONCLUSION: While the demands for rescue services increased in the first 2 days, it was determined that the demands for water especially, dry food, and tents increased from the third day onwards. It is suggested that a professional online infrastructure system should be created to enable the transfer of instant scene and need information that can be activated in such disasters.

Digital Response to Physical Crises: The Role of an E-Health Platform in the 2023 Southern Turkey Earthquakes.

The catastrophic earthquakes that struck Southern Turkey in 2023 highlighted the pressing need for effective disaster management strategies. The unprecedented scale of the crisis tested the robustness of traditional healthcare responses and highlighted the potential of e-health solutions. Despite the deployment of Emergency Medical Teams, initial responders - primarily survivors of the earthquakes - faced an enormous challenge due to their lack of training in mass-casualty situations. An e-health platform was introduced to support these first responders, offering tools for drug calculations, case management guidelines, and a deep learning model for pediatric X-ray analysis. This commentary presents an analysis of the platform's use and contributes to the growing discourse on integrating digital health technologies in disaster response and management.

Exploring Volunteer Pharmacists' Experiences in Responding to 2023 Türkiye Earthquakes: A Qualitative Phenomenological Study.

OBJECTIVE: Pharmacists are vital in disaster response efforts, dispensing essential medications, managing pharmacy services, consulting, and educating survivors regarding their medications. Their contributions, however, are often underrepresented in scientific literature. This study aimed to explore the experiences of pharmacists who provided pharmacy services to meet the pharmaceutical needs of the survivors after 2 major earthquakes in Türkiye in 2023. METHODS: This study adopted a phenomenological approach. Data were collected using semi-structured interviews. Purposive sampling was used to invite pharmacists who provided pharmacy services to survivors. Interview transcripts were analyzed following an inductive, reflexive thematic analysis. RESULTS: In total, 15 pharmacists were interviewed. Four main overarching themes "response to the earthquake," "preparedness for the earthquake," "experiences during service delivery," and "mental and physical experiences" were developed. CONCLUSIONS: From participants' experiences, it is essential to expand the clinical responsibilities of pharmacists and train them in providing wound care, administering immunization, and prescribing. Pharmacists should be integrated as essential members of disaster health teams. International health organizations, nongovernmental organizations, and governments are encouraged to work collaboratively and develop disaster management plans including pharmacists in early responders. This might help mitigate the deficiencies and overcome challenges in health-care systems to provide effective patient-centered care by health professionals and respond effectively to disasters.

Understanding paleo-earthquakes in the Kuril Trench based on Late-Holocene tsunami deposits in the distal region from wave sources, northern Hidaka, Hokkaido, Japan.

Geological evidence, such as tsunami deposits, is crucial for studying the largest rupture zone of the Kuril Trench in Hokkaido, Japan, due to its poor historical record. Although 17th-century tsunami deposits are widely distributed across Hokkaido, the presence of multiple wave sources during that period, including the collapse of Mt. Komagatake, complicates the correlation with their wave sources. Understanding the regional distribution of these tsunami deposits can provide valuable data to estimate the magnitude of megathrust earthquakes in the Kuril Trench. The northern part of Hidaka, Hokkaido, where tsunamis from multiple wave sources are expected to overlap, is distant from the Kuril Trench. To clarify the depositional history of tsunami deposits in such distal areas, evaluating the influence of the depositional environments on the event layer preservation becomes even more critical. We conducted field surveys in Kabari, located in the northern Hidaka region, identifying three sand layers from the 10th to the 17th century and two layers dating beyond 2.3 thousand years ago. The depositional ages of most sand layers potentially correlate with tsunami deposits resulting from the Kuril Trench earthquakes. Utilizing reconstructed paleo-sea level data, we estimated that most sand layers reached approximately 2 m in height. However, it is noteworthy that the latest sand layer from the 17th century exhibited an unusual distribution, more than 3 m in height. This suggests a different wave source as the Mt. Komagatake collapse. The discovery of multiple sand layers and their distributions is crucial to constraining the maximum magnitude of giant earthquakes in the Kuril Trench and understanding the volcanic tsunami events related to Mt. Komagatake.

Recovering a lost seismic disaster. The destruction of El Castillejo and the discovery of the earliest historic earthquake affecting the Granada region (Spain).

This paper discusses recent archaeological fieldwork conducted at El Castillejo, a medieval Islamic settlement in Los Guájares, Granada, southern Spain. Results from combined archaeological excavation and archaeoseismological assessment of standing structures suggest that the site was affected by a destructive earthquake during its occupation. Radiocarbon samples and OSL analysis point to a seismic event in the period CE 1224-1266. The earthquake occurred within an area marked by a 'seismological gap' in terms of historic seismicity and the causative fault has been tentatively identified in the Nigüelas-Padul Fault System which lies north of the settlement. This event is not recorded by national or European seismic catalogues and represents the oldest historic earthquake in the Granada area. Our work stresses the significant impact that targeted archaeological investigations can generate in our understanding of the local historic seismicity, thus providing clear implications for seismic disaster prevention and reduction.