Seismic hazard analysis and financial impact assessment of railway infrastructure in the US West Coast: A machine learning approach.

This research examines the seismic hazard impact on railway infrastructure along the U.S. West Coast (Washington, Oregon and California), using machine learning to explore how measures of seismic hazard such as fault density, earthquake frequency, and ground shaking relate to railway infrastructure accidents. By comparing linear and non-linear models, it finds non-linear approaches superior, particularly noting that higher fault densities and stronger peak ground shaking correlate with increased infrastructure accident rates. Shallow earthquakes with magnitudes of 3.5 or greater and hypocentral depths <20 km also exhibit a pronounced correlation with the incidence of railway infrastructure accidents The study extends to financial impact analysis through Net Present Value and Monte Carlo Simulation, and evaluates damage costs from 2000-2023 to guide financial planning and risk management strategies. It highlights the crucial role of advanced financial tools in optimizing maintenance and long-term planning that could result in better preparedness in high seismic hazard regions and emphasizes the need for robust risk management strategies in enhancing railway operational safety that considers the local and regional tectonic and seismic activity and local ground shaking intensity.

The impact of Tsunamis on land appraisals: Evidence from Western Japan.

This paper estimates the impact of the tsunami caused by the Great East Japan earthquake on land appraisals of various locations outside of directly damaged areas. The focus is on locations that are expected to be extensively damaged by a tsunami if the Nankai Trough earthquake occurs. We use the DID and DDD approaches and show that locations with low elevation and close to the sea experienced decreases in appraised land prices compared to locations with high elevation and far from the sea. Especially, locations with less than 3.6m elevation and within 1.46km of the coastline experienced significant decreases in appraised land prices. This result implies that people have changed their location preferences regarding elevation and distance from the sea.

The continued operation of businesses after an earthquake: a case study from Lushan County, China.

This study performed a comparative analysis of changes in the operating status of initial surviving disaster-stricken businesses and non-disaster-stricken businesses in Lushan County, China, after a devastating earthquake on 20 April 2013. It used a logistic regression model to explore the key factors associated with 'post-disaster continued business operation' in the long term. Field data were collected from 1,078 businesses and questionnaire data from 263 small businesses between 2013 and 2017. The results indicate that a higher proportion of initial surviving disaster-stricken businesses than non-disaster-stricken businesses managed to remain operational in each observation period. The continued operation of disaster-stricken businesses after the earthquake was positively associated with the owner's age, previous disaster experience, pre-disaster financial conditions, closure duration, and borrowing money from family or friends. A negative association was found with the size of the business. The findings serve as a vital reference for strategies to promote post-disaster continued business operation.

On Modeling the Earthquake Insurance Data via a New Member of the T-X Family.

Heavy-tailed distributions play an important role in modeling data in actuarial and financial sciences. In this article, a new method is suggested to define new distributions suitable for modeling data with a heavy right tail. The proposed method may be named as the Z-family of distributions. For illustrative purposes, a special submodel of the proposed family, called the Z-Weibull distribution, is considered in detail to model data with a heavy right tail. The method of maximum likelihood estimation is adopted to estimate the model parameters. A brief Monte Carlo simulation study for evaluating the maximum likelihood estimators is done. Furthermore, some actuarial measures such as value at risk and tail value at risk are calculated. A simulation study based on these actuarial measures is also done. An application of the Z-Weibull model to the earthquake insurance data is presented. Based on the analyses, we observed that the proposed distribution can be used quite effectively in modeling heavy-tailed data in insurance sciences and other related fields. Finally, Bayesian analysis and performance of Gibbs sampling for the earthquake data have also been carried out.

A model of the indirect losses from negative shocks in production and finance.

Economies are frequently affected by natural disasters and both domestic and overseas financial crises. These events disrupt production and cause multiple other types of economic losses, including negative impacts on the banking system. Understanding the transmission mechanism that causes various negative second-order post-catastrophe effects is crucial if policymakers are to develop more efficient recovery strategies. In this work, we introduce a credit-based adaptive regional input-output (ARIO) model to analyse the effects of disasters and crises on the supply chain and bank-firm credit networks. Using real Japanese networks and the exogenous shocks of the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and the Great East Japan Earthquake (March 11, 2011), this paper aims to depict how these negative shocks propagate through the supply chain and affect the banking system. The credit-based ARIO model is calibrated using Latin hypercube sampling and the design of experiments procedure to reproduce the short-term (one-year) dynamics of the Japanese industrial production index after the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. Then, through simulation experiments, we identify the chemical and petroleum manufacturing and transport sectors as the most vulnerable Japanese industrial sectors. Finally, the case of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake is simulated for Japanese prefectures to understand differences among regions in terms of globally engendered indirect economic losses. Tokyo and Osaka prefectures are the most vulnerable locations because they hold greater concentrations of the above-mentioned vulnerable industrial sectors.

Financial Preparation, Disaster Experience, and Disaster Risk Perception of Rural Households in Earthquake-Stricken Areas: Evidence From the Wenchuan and Lushan Earthquakes in China's Sichuan Province.

Sichuan is a province in Southwest China that is famous worldwide for its earthquakes. However, few quantitative studies in China have probed the correlations between rural households' financial preparation, disaster experience, and disaster-risk perception. Using survey data of 327 rural households from four areas stricken by the Wenchuan Earthquake and Lushan Earthquake in Sichuan, the ordinary least square (OLS) method was used to quantitatively explore the correlations between these three factors. The results show that rural households' total family cash income, asset diversity, and whether rural households can borrow money from relatives and friends whenever there is a catastrophe such as an earthquake are significantly negatively correlated with the probability of disaster occurrence. Asset diversity and whether rural households can borrow money from banks whenever there is a catastrophe such as an earthquake are significantly positively related to the severity of disaster occurrence. The severity of residents' disaster experience is not significantly correlated with the probability of disaster occurrence, but is significantly positively related to the severity of the disaster. The research results can provide useful enlightenment for the improvement of financial preparedness and disaster risk management for rural households in earthquake-stricken areas.

Historical Earthquakes and Their Socioeconomic Consequences in China: 1950⁻2017.

Understanding the spatiotemporal pattern of historical earthquake disasters and resultant socioeconomic consequences is essential for designing effective disaster risk reduction measures. Based on historical earthquake disaster records, this study compiles a Chinese earthquake disaster catalog (CH-CAT) that includes records of 722 earthquake disasters that occurred during 1950⁻2017 in the mainland of China. This catalog includes more complete data records than other existing global earthquake databases for China as a whole. Statistical results demonstrate that the number of earthquake disasters and the resultant direct economic losses (DELs) exhibit significant increasing trends (p < 0.01) over the studied 68-year period. Earthquake-induced deaths vary greatly between individual years and exhibit no significant trend. The Qinghai-Tibet seismic zone is the area with the highest frequency of earthquake disasters and the largest accumulated DELs, whereas the North China seismic zone is associated with the highest number of deaths. Among the 722 earthquake disasters, nearly 99.0% of deaths and 95.0% of DELs are attributable to 1.8% and 3.9% of the earthquake disasters, respectively. Approximately 54.2% of recorded earthquake disasters have earthquake magnitude (Ms) values between 5.0 and 5.9, while earthquake disasters with Ms greater than or equal to 7.0 account for 88.5% of DELs and 98.8% of deaths. On average, earthquake-induced DELs and deaths increase nonlinearly with increasing Ms per earthquake. DELs have a positive correlation with deaths and casualties on a logarithmic scale. This study further discusses that during different stages of socioeconomic development, changes in both exposure and vulnerability may be the major factors leading to change differences in earthquake-induced socioeconomic consequences. This study is a beneficial supplement to the global earthquake database and is useful for calibrating global or regional empirical loss models.

Rural Households' Livelihood Capital, Risk Perception, and Willingness to Purchase Earthquake Disaster Insurance: Evidence from Southwestern China.

Earthquake disaster insurance can effectively reduce the impact of earthquake disasters on rural households. Exploring rural households’ willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance in earthquake disaster areas provides an understanding of the motivations underlying the implementation of an insurance policy. However, few studies have examined the perspectives of rural households, in order to explore the correlations between the rural households’ livelihood capital, their disaster risk perception, and their willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance. A cross-sectional survey data including 241 rural households from the most severe disaster counties (cities) during the 5 • 12 Wenchuan earthquake was examined with regard to rural households’ livelihood and disaster risk perception, and ordinal logistic regression models were constructed to explore rural households’ willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance, as well as the driving mechanism behind this willingness. The results showed that 34.44% of rural households were very willing to purchase earthquake disaster insurance, and 7.05% of rural households were very reluctant to purchase earthquake insurance. Rural households’ livelihood capital and risk perceptions were the most important factors affecting their willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance. Rural households with higher scores on natural capital, physical capital, possibility, and worry were more likely to purchase earthquake disaster insurance. Specifically, keeping all other variables constant, every one unit increase in nature capital and physical capital corresponded to an increase in the odds of willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance by a factor of 0.14 and 0.06, respectively; every one unit increase in possibility and worry corresponded to an increase in the odds of willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance by a factor of 0.03 and 0.04, respectively. This study contributes to the current literature by increasing the understanding of the relationships between Chinese rural households’ livelihood capital and risk perceptions, and their willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance.

Association between health risks and frailty in relation to the degree of housing damage among elderly survivors of the great East Japan earthquake.

BACKGROUND: Many survivors of the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred in 2011 were at risk of deteriorating health, especially elderly people living in disaster-stricken areas. The objectives of this prospective study were: a) to clarify the different lifestyle and psychosocial factors associated with frailty by sex among the non-disabled elderly survivors, and b) to describe the differences in characteristics stratified by the degree of disaster-related housing damage. METHODS: We followed 2261 Japanese survivors aged ≥65 years (45.3% male; mean age, 71.7 years) without disability or frailty who completed a self-administered questionnaire at baseline. All participants completed a baseline questionnaire in 2011 and at least one identical follow-up questionnaire between 2012 and 2015 regarding lifestyle (smoking status, alcohol intake, physical activity, sedentary lifestyle, and dietary intake) and psychosocial factors (self-rated health, standard of living, psychological distress, and social networks). Frailty was defined as a score of ≥5 on the Kihon Checklist, which is used by the Japanese government to certify the need for long-term care insurance. Adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals with frailty as the dichotomous dependent variable and health factors as the independent variables were calculated using a multilevel model for repeated measures by sex, followed by stratification analyses by the degree of housing damage. RESULTS: Over the 4-year study period, 510 participants (22.6%) developed frailty. In the post-disaster setting, many of the psychosocial factors remained more prevalent 4 years later among survivors with extensive housing damage. The presence of risk factors regarding the development of frailty differed by the degree of housing damage. Among men, psychological distress, in parallel with a poor social network, was related to frailty among only the participants with extensive housing damage and those living in temporary housing, whereas among women, worsening psychological distress was associated only with no damage and no displaced survivors. Among women with extensive damage and displacement, health outcomes such as overweight and diabetes and poor social networks were strongly related to frailty. CONCLUSIONS: Lifestyle and psychosocial factors associated with the risk of frailty differ by sex and the degree of housing damage.

Perception of recovery of households affected by 2008 Wenchuan earthquake: A structural equation model.

Much of the literature on recovery focuses on the economy, the physical environment and infrastructure at a macro level, which may ignore the personal experiences of affected individuals during recovery. This paper combines internal factors at a micro level and external factors at a macro level to model for understanding perception of recovery (PoR). This study focuses on areas devastated by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. With respect to three recovery-related aspects (house recovery condition (HRC), family recovery power (FRP) and reconstruction investment (RI)), structural equation modeling (SEM) was applied. It was found that the three aspects (FRP, HRC and RI) effectively explain how earthquake affected households perceive recovery. Internal factors associated with FRP contributed the most to favourable PoR, followed by external factors associated with HRC. Findings identified that for PoR the importance of active recovery within households outweighed an advantageous house recovery condition. At the same time, households trapped in unfavourable external conditions would invest more in housing recovery, which result in wealth accumulation and improved quality of life leading to a high level of PoR. In addition, schooling in households showed a negative effect on improving PoR. This research contributes to current debates around post-disaster permanent housing policy. It is implied that a one-size-fits-all policy in disaster recovery may not be effective and more specific assistance should be provided to those people in need.

Natural disasters and indicators of social cohesion.

Do adversarial environmental conditions create social cohesion? We provide new answers to this question by exploiting spatial and temporal variation in exposure to earthquakes across Chile. Using a variety of methods and controlling for a number of socio-economic variables, we find that exposure to earthquakes has a positive effect on several indicators of social cohesion. Social cohesion increases after a big earthquake and slowly erodes in periods where environmental conditions are less adverse. Our results contribute to the current debate on whether and how environmental conditions shape formal and informal institutions.

Human Trafficking in Nepal: Post-Earthquake Risk and Response.

As Nepal mourns the 1-year commemoration of the April 2015 earthquake and its aftershocks that killed more than 8500 people and left thousands injured and displaced, other more hidden repercussions of the resultant chaotic environment need attention: the increased risk of human trafficking. Considering that natural disasters provide a milieu for this illicit trade, there is a need for a robust response from stakeholders such as donors, civil society organizations, and government organizations against human trafficking following disasters such as the Nepal earthquake. Responsibility to prevent and fight trafficking should be explicitly included in the mandate of relief and rehabilitation mechanisms set up at the national level to coordinate the disaster relief response, serving to support populations in both rural and urban areas. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:153-154).

Economic Effects of 1978 Tabas Earthquake (Iran).

BACKGROUND: Natural disasters are one of the most important adverse health events. The earthquake that happened in the city of Tabas in 1978 was ranked third in terms of number of deaths caused by natural disasters over the past 100 years in Iran. This study was aimed to evaluate the economic and human capital consequences of earthquake in Tabas district. METHODS: We used a two percent random sample of Iran Census Dataset from 2006 to run a difference-in-difference study. The difference-in-difference methodology was used to evaluate (1) the mean changes in variables including years of schooling and wealth; (2) the odds changes in primary school completion and literacy of people born (5 or 10 years) post-event versus (5 or 10 years) pre-event in Tabas compared with the same values for those born in the same period of time in the control districts. RESULTS: Differential increase in years of schooling for being born 10 years after the earthquake versus in 10 years before earthquake in Tabas was one-third of a school year less than in the control districts. There were 89.5% and 65.4% decrease in odds that an individual is literate, and 0.26 and 0.104 average decrease in the SES index for those born in Tabas in periods of 5 and 10 years, respectively, compared with control districts. CONCLUSION: Tabas earthquake had negative long-term effects on human capital and wealth. This study can help official authorities to promote educational and economic plans and to implement comprehensive reforms in earthquake-stricken areas.

'My body is mine': Qualitatively exploring agency among internally displaced women participants in a small-group intervention in Leogane, Haiti.

The 2010 earthquake resulted in the breakdown of Haiti's social, economic and health infrastructure. Over one-quarter of a million people remain internally displaced (ID). ID women experience heightened vulnerability to intimate partner violence (IPV) due to increased poverty and reduced community networks. Scant research has examined experiences of IPV among ID women in post-earthquake Haiti. We conducted a qualitative study to explore the impact of participating in Famn an Aksyon Pou Santé Yo (FASY), a small-group HIV prevention intervention, on ID women's agency in Leogane, Haiti. We conducted four focus groups with ID women, FASY participants (n = 40) and in-depth individual interviews with peer health workers (n = 7). Our study was guided by critical ethnography and paid particular attention to power relations. Findings highlighted multiple forms of IPV (e.g., physical, sexual). Participants discussed processes of intrapersonal (confidence), interpersonal (communication), relational (support) and collective (women's rights) agency. Yet structural factors, including patriarchal gender norms and poverty, silenced IPV discussions and constrained women's agency. Findings suggest that agency among ID women is a multi-level, non-linear and incremental process. To effectively address IPV among ID women in Haiti, interventions should address structural contexts of gender inequity and poverty and concurrently facilitate multi-level processes of agency.

The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe.

We quantify the 'permanent' socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades. In order to estimate the counterfactual--i.e., the Kobe economy without the earthquake--we use the synthetic control method. Three important empirical patterns emerge: First, the population size and especially the average income level in Kobe have been lower than the counterfactual level without the earthquake for over fifteen years, indicating a permanent negative effect of the earthquake. Such a negative impact can be found especially in the central areas which are closer to the epicenter. Second, the surrounding areas experienced some positive permanent impacts in spite of short-run negative effects of the earthquake. Much of this is associated with movement of people to East Kobe, and consequent movement of jobs to the metropolitan center of Osaka, that is located immediately to the East of Kobe. Third, the furthest areas in the vicinity of Kobe seem to have been insulated from the large direct and indirect impacts of the earthquake.