Encouraging Mammograms Using Behavioral Economics: A Randomized Controlled Trial in Chile.

OBJECTIVES: This article illustrates the effect of a direct mail campaign that used insights from behavioral economics and psychology to increase the number of free mammograms in Chilean women aged 50 years or older. METHODS: We hypothesized 4 barriers in obtaining a mammogram based on previous literature and focus group analysis. A behavioral economic approach providing incentives was used to help overcome these barriers. We accessed a unique data set, which comprised 12 000 women 50 years old or older, with private health insurance who have not had a mammogram for 24 or more months. We conducted a randomized controlled trial with 8 treatments, each involving a specific combination of messages. RESULTS: The intervention overall led to a 167% increase in the use of free mammograms, a 1.13% to 3.03% average increase from the control to treatment groups, respectively. Regarding barriers, we found that all messages were effective, with a slightly larger and persistent effect for the less complex ones in terms of information. This finding illustrates the benefits of keeping the message simple. CONCLUSIONS: Finally, these results suggest a successful public policy for increasing use of free mammography programs. Moreover, they are potentially transferable because the study considered decision-making heuristics that are not specific to one culture or social context.

Care Ethics versus the CARES Act.

One of the biggest policy interventions during the last year of the COVID-19 pandemic was the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Securities Act, instituting a novel form of economic relief similar to a universal basic income. The economic impact payments, colloquially known as "stimulus checks," were distributed based on the socioeconomic status of American citizens and legal residents and provided much-needed financial aid. However, the distribution of these payments paid little attention to other important factors that might determine the economic security of said individuals, such as race and gender. This article calls for policy-makers to pay particular attention to how structural inequity and discrimination based on identity could affect the efficacy of proposed policies and demonstrate an ethic of care informed by an understanding of intersectionality.

Acute stress does not affect economic behavior in the experimental laboratory.

We report statistical results from a laboratory experiment in which participants were required to make decisions with monetary consequences in several solitary and interactive situations under acute stress. Our study follows the tradition of behavioral and experimental economics in selecting the experimental situations and incorporates elements from medical and psychological research in the way stress is induced and measured. It relies on a larger sample, with 192 volunteers, than previous studies to achieve higher statistical power. The main conclusion, drawn from binary comparisons between the treatment and reference groups, is that acute stress does not have a significant impact on cognitive skills, strategic sophistication, risk attitudes, altruism, cooperativeness, or nastiness. Regression analysis, controlling for psycho-social characteristics, corroborates these findings, while also suggesting that acute stress significantly decreases men's risk aversion (as measured by a lottery-choice risk-elicitation task).

Initial development of a brief assessment of cocaine demand.

Cocaine demand is a behavioral economic measure assessing drug reward value and motivation to use drug. The purpose of the current study was to develop a brief assessment of cocaine demand (BACD). Results from the BACD were compared with self-report measures of cocaine use. Participants consisted of treatment-seeking individuals with cocaine use disorder (N = 22). Results revealed that indices of brief demand were significantly associated with various self-report measures of cocaine use. Overall, these results support the utility of a BACD for assessing cocaine demand.

Quantifying the Impact of Public Perceptions on Vaccine Acceptance Using Behavioral Economics.

This study was conducted to evaluate the impact of public perceptions of vaccine safety and efficacy on intent to seek COVID-19 vaccination using hypothetical vaccine acceptance scenarios. The behavioral economic methodology could be used to inform future public health vaccination campaigns designed to influence public perceptions and improve public acceptance of the vaccine. In June 2020, 534 respondents completed online validated behavioral economic procedures adapted to evaluate COVID-19 vaccine demand in relation to a hypothetical development process and efficacy. An exponential demand function was used to describe the proportion of participants accepting the vaccine at each efficacy. Linear mixed effect models evaluated development process and individual characteristic effects on minimum required vaccine efficacy required for vaccine acceptance. The rapid development process scenario increased the rate of decline in acceptance with reductions in efficacy. At 50% efficacy, 68.8% of respondents would seek the standard vaccine, and 58.8% would seek the rapid developed vaccine. Rapid vaccine development increased the minimum required efficacy for vaccine acceptance by over 9 percentage points, γ = 9.36, p < 0.001. Past-3-year flu vaccination, γ = -23.00, p < 0.001, and male respondents, γ = -4.98, p = 0.037, accepted lower efficacy. Respondents reporting greater conspiracy beliefs, γ = 0.39, p < 0.001, and political conservatism, γ = 0.32, p < 0.001, required higher efficacy. Male, γ = -4.43, p = 0.013, and more conservative, γ = -0.09, p = 0.039, respondents showed smaller changes in minimum required efficacy by development process. Information on the vaccine development process, vaccine efficacy, and individual differences impact the proportion of respondents reporting COVID-19 vaccination intentions. Behavioral economics provides an empirical method to estimate vaccine demand to target subpopulations resistant to vaccination.

Using Insights from Behavioral Economics to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19.

The outbreak of 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has become a public health emergency of international concern. The number of COVID-infected individuals and related deaths continues to rise rapidly. Encouraging people to adopt and sustain preventive behaviors is a central focus of public health policies that seek to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Public health policy needs improved methods to encourage people to adhere to COVID-19-preventive behaviors. In this paper, we introduce a number of insights from behavioral economics that help explain why people may behave irrationally during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, present bias, status quo bias, framing effect, optimism bias, affect heuristic, and herding behavior are discussed. We hope this paper will shed light on how insights from behavioral economics can enrich public health policies and interventions in the fight against COVID-19.

Examining effects of unit price on preference for reduced nicotine content cigarettes and smoking rate.

Cigarette preference increases as a function of greater nicotine content, but manipulating cost can shift preference. The aims of the present study are to model whether (1) the behavioral-economic metric unit price (cost/reinforcer magnitude) accounts for preference shifts and (2) whether preference shifts toward reduced nicotine content are associated with smoking reductions. In a multisite study between 2015 and 2016, 169 daily smokers from vulnerable populations completed two concurrent-choice conditions examining preference for smoking normal (15.8 mg/g) and reduced (0.4 mg/g) nicotine content cigarettes. In Condition 1, both products were available at 10 responses/choice. In Condition 2, availability of the 0.4 mg/g dose remained at 10 responses/choice while the 15.8 mg/g dose was available on a progressive-ratio (PR) schedule wherein response cost increased following each choice. Unit prices were calculated by dividing dose by response requirement. Results were analyzed using ANOVA and binomial tests (p < .05). Participants preferred the 15.8 over 0.4 mg/g dose in Condition 1, but shifted preference to the 0.4 mg/g dose in Condition 2 (p < .001) immediately before the point in the PR progression where unit price for 15.8 dose exceeded unit price for the 0.4 dose (p < .001). This shift was associated with a reduction in smoking (p < .001). The unit price of nicotine appears to underpin cigarette product preference and may provide a metric for predicting preference and potentially impacting it through tobacco regulations. These results also demonstrate that reduced compared to normal nicotine content cigarettes sustain lower smoking rates discernible even under acute laboratory conditions and in vulnerable populations.

Alcohol demand moderates brief motivational intervention outcomes in underage young adult drinkers.

INTRODUCTION: The Alcohol Purchase Task (APT), a behavioral economic measure of alcohol's reinforcing value (demand), has been used to predict the effects of Brief Motivational Intervention (BMI) on alcohol use outcomes. However, it is not known whether BMI may be more or less efficacious, relative to control, among those with different levels of alcohol demand prior to treatment. METHODS: Non college-attending young adults (N = 150) reporting past-month heavy drinking were randomized to a single in-person session of BMI or a relaxation training control (REL). The BMI included delivery of personalized feedback and focused on developing discrepancy between the young adults' goals and their current pattern of alcohol use. At baseline, participants completed assessments of alcohol use and the APT. Drinking levels were re-assessed at 6 weeks and 3 months post-intervention. Demand indices derived from the APT were examined as moderators of treatment effects on follow-up drinking after covarying for baseline alcohol use. RESULTS: Two of four APT demand indices - intensity and Omax - moderated treatment outcomes. Relative to REL, BMI led to greater reductions in total number of drinks consumed and drinks per drinking day among participants with higher baseline alcohol demand. This association was not observed among participants with lower levels of alcohol demand. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that BMI may be particularly beneficial for those with a high reinforcing value of alcohol. The mechanism for this effect is unclear, and determining the process by which BMI confers increased benefit for these individuals is a fruitful area for future work.

Threat appeals reduce impulsive decision making associated with texting while driving: A behavioral economic approach.

The primary purpose of the present study was to examine the effectiveness of threat appeals in influencing impulsive decision making associated with texting while driving. The participants in the treatment group were exposed to a threatening message about the danger of texting while driving, whereas those in the control group were exposed to a non-threatening message. Following the exposure to either message, the participants completed a delay-discounting task that assessed the degree of impulsive decision making in a hypothetical texting-while-driving scenario. A comparison between the groups revealed that the threat appeals reduced the degree of impulsive decision making associated with texting while driving. In addition, the threat appeals led to greater anticipated regret from texting while driving, less favorable attitudes toward texting while driving, and decreased intentions to text while driving in the future in the treatment group. These results suggest that video-based threat appeals are promising intervention strategies for the public health challenge of texting while driving. Implications from the behavioral economic perspective are discussed.

Effect of Financial Bonus Size, Loss Aversion, and Increased Social Pressure on Physician Pay-for-Performance: A Randomized Clinical Trial and Cohort Study.

Importance: Despite limited effectiveness of pay-for-performance (P4P), payers continue to expand P4P nationally. Objective: To test whether increasing bonus size or adding the behavioral economic principles of increased social pressure (ISP) or loss aversion (LA) improves the effectiveness of P4P. Design, Setting, and Participants: Parallel studies conducted from January 1 to December 31, 2016, consisted of a randomized clinical trial with patients cluster-randomized by practice site to an active control group (larger bonus size [LBS] only) or to groups with 1 of 2 behavioral economic interventions added and a cohort study comparing changes in outcomes among patients of physicians receiving an LBS with outcomes in propensity-matched physicians not receiving an LBS. A total of 8118 patients attributed to 66 physicians with 1 of 5 chronic conditions were treated at Advocate HealthCare, an integrated health system in Illinois. Data were analyzed using intention to treat and multiple imputation from February 1, 2017, through May 31, 2018. Interventions: Physician participants received an LBS increased by a mean of $3355 per physician (LBS-only group); prefunded incentives to elicit LA and an LBS; or increasing proportion of a P4P bonus determined by group performance from 30% to 50% (ISP) and an LBS. Main Outcomes and Measures: The proportion of 20 evidence-based quality measures achieved at the patient level. Results: A total of 86 physicians were eligible for the randomized trial. Of these, 32 were excluded because they did not have unique attributed patients. Fifty-four physicians were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 groups, and 33 physicians (54.5% male; mean [SD] age, 57 [10] years) and 3747 patients (63.6% female; mean [SD] age, 64 [18] years) were included in the final analysis. Nine physicians and 864 patients were randomized to the LBS-only group, 13 physicians and 1496 patients to the LBS plus ISP group, and 11 physicians and 1387 patients to the LBS plus LA group. Physician characteristics did not differ significantly by arm, such as mean (SD) physician age ranging from 56 (9) to 59 (9) years, and sex (6 [46.2%] to 6 [66.7%] male). No differences were found between the LBS-only and the intervention groups (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] for LBS plus LA vs LBS-only, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.65-1.15; P = .31]; aOR for LBS plus ISP vs LBS-only, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.64-1.42; P = .81]; and aOR for LBS plus ISP vs LBS plus LA, 1.10 [95% CI, 0.75-1.61; P = .62]). Increased bonus size was associated with a greater increase in evidence-based care relative to the comparison group (risk-standardized absolute difference-in-differences, 3.2 percentage points; 95% CI, 1.9-4.5 percentage points; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: Increased bonus size was associated with significantly improved quality of care relative to a comparison group. Adding ISP and opportunities for LA did not improve quality. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02634879.

The impact of vaping and regulatory environment on cigarette demand: behavioral economic perspective across four countries.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Government regulations of nicotine vaping products (NVP) have evolved rapidly during the past decade. The impact of NVP regulatory environment and vaping on cigarette demand is unknown. The current study aims to investigate whether or not respondents' reported cigarette demand, as measured by a hypothetical cigarette purchase task, varies with (1) smoking status, (2) vaping status or (3) NVP regulatory environment (country used as proxy). DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey data from wave 1 of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Smoking and Vaping (4CV) Survey (2016). SETTING: Australia, Canada, England and the United States. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 10 316 adult smokers. MEASUREMENTS: A hypothetical purchase task asked smokers to estimate how many cigarettes they would purchase for consumption in a single day across multiple cigarette prices. Responses were used to derive measures of cigarette demand. Overall sensitivity of cigarette consumption to price increases was quantified to index cigarette demand elasticity, whereas estimated consumption when cigarettes are free was used to index cigarette demand intensity. FINDINGS: A majority of the non-daily smokers had previously smoked daily (72.3%); daily vapers were more likely to be former daily smokers (89.9%) compared to non-daily vapers (70.1%) and non-vapers (69.2%) (P < 0.001). The smoking status × vaping status interaction was significant for cigarette demand intensity (F = 4.93; P = 0.007) and elasticity (F = 7.30; P = 0.001): among non-daily smokers, vapers reported greater intensity but lower elasticity (i.e. greater demand) relative to non-vapers (Ps < 0.05). Among daily smokers, daily vapers reported greater intensity relative to non-vapers (P = 0.005), but vaping status did not impact elasticity (Ps > 0.38). Intensity was higher in Australia compared with all other countries (Ps < 0.001), but elasticity did not vary by country (F = 2.15; P = 0.09). CONCLUSIONS: In a hypothetical purchase task, non-daily smokers showed lower price elasticity if they used e-cigarettes than if they did not, while there was no clear difference in elasticity between e-cigarette users and non-users among daily smokers or according to regulatory environment of their country with regard to e-cigarettes.

The Demand Curve Analyzer: Behavioral economic software for applied research.

Free and open-source software for applying models of operant demand called the Demand Curve Analyzer (DCA) was developed and systematically evaluated for use in research. The software was constructed to streamline the use of recommended screening measures, prepare suitable scaling parameters, fit one of several models of operant demand, and provide publication-quality figures. The DCA allows users to easily import price and consumption data into spreadsheet-based controls and to perform statistical modeling with the aid of a graphical user interface. The results from computer simulations and reanalyses of published study data indicated that the DCA provides results consistent with commercially available software that has been traditionally used to apply these analyses (i.e., GraphPadTM Prism). Further, the DCA provides additional functionality that other statistical packages do not include. Practical issues and future directions related to the determination of scaling parameter k, screening for nonsystematic data, and the incorporation of more advanced behavioral economic methods are also discussed.

Happy hour drink specials in the Alcohol Purchase Task.

There is strong evidence to suggest that happy hour drink specials are associated with undesirable outcomes such as increased amount of drinking, increased likelihood of being highly intoxicated, and increased likelihood of experiencing negative outcomes related to drinking (e.g., getting into fights). Public policy efforts have been made to ban or at least restrict alcohol drink specials. Research in behavioral economics-primarily demand curve analyses-has yielded valuable insights into the role of environmental effects on reinforcer consumption, especially within the context of alcohol reinforcement. The use of the Alcohol Purchase Task (APT), which asks respondents to report how many alcoholic drinks they would be willing to purchase at various prices, has contributed greatly to these efforts. The purpose of the current experiment was to determine whether self-reported consumption of alcohol on an APT changes when participants imagine a hypothetical "happy hour" scenario, akin to drink specials encountered in the real world. Results from the current experiment extend previous literature on APT vignette manipulations and provide implications for efforts to reduce problematic drinking. (PsycINFO Database Record

Behavioral responses to surveys about nicotine dependence.

Behavioral responses to surveys can significantly affect inferences about population prevalence unless correctly modeled statistically. An important case study is the prevalence of nicotine dependence, a formal psychiatric disorder satisfying clinical criteria. Data from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions in the United States are used, along with a flexible semi-nonparametric sample selection model. Corrections for sample selection responses to "gateway" survey questions lead to significantly higher estimates of the prevalence of nicotine dependence among current daily smokers. These corrections also imply even higher levels of the decades-long and lifetime-long persistence of nicotine dependence after the onset of smoking.

Exposure to Poverty and Productivity.

We study whether exposure to poverty can induce affective states that decrease productivity. In a controlled laboratory setting, we find that subjects randomly assigned to a treatment, in which they view a video featuring individuals that live in extreme poverty, exhibit lower subsequent productivity compared to subjects assigned to a control treatment. Questionnaire responses, as well as facial recognition software, provide quantitative measures of the affective state evoked by the two treatments. Subjects exposed to images of poverty experience a more negative affective state than those in the control treatment. Further analysis shows that individuals in a more positive emotional state exhibit less of a treatment effect. Also, those who exhibit greater attentiveness upon viewing the poverty video are less productive. The results are consistent with the notion that exposure to poverty can induce a psychological state in individuals that adversely affects productivity.

Statistical issues in pragmatic trials of behavioral economic interventions.

BACKGROUND: Randomized clinical trials provide gold-standard evidence for the efficacy of interventions, but have limitations, including highly selected populations that make inference on effectiveness difficult and a lack of ability to adapt and change midstream. METHODS: We propose two innovations for pragmatic trial design. RESULTS: Evidence-based evolutionary testing, a framework that allows adaptation of interventions and rapid-cycle innovation, preserves the power of randomization while acknowledging the need for adaptation and learning. An opt-out consent framework increases the fraction of the target population who participate in trials, but may lead to dampening of effect sizes. CONCLUSION: Pragmatic trials offer numerous advantages in the evaluation of behavioral interventions in health. Statistical innovations, including evidence-based evolutionary testing and opt-out framing of consent and enrollment processes, can enhance the power of pragmatic trials and lead to more rapid progress.

Human Factors in Financial Trading: An Analysis of Trading Incidents.

OBJECTIVE: This study tests the reliability of a system (FINANS) to collect and analyze incident reports in the financial trading domain and is guided by a human factors taxonomy used to describe error in the trading domain. BACKGROUND: Research indicates the utility of applying human factors theory to understand error in finance, yet empirical research is lacking. We report on the development of the first system for capturing and analyzing human factors-related issues in operational trading incidents. METHOD: In the first study, 20 incidents are analyzed by an expert user group against a referent standard to establish the reliability of FINANS. In the second study, 750 incidents are analyzed using distribution, mean, pathway, and associative analysis to describe the data. RESULTS: Kappa scores indicate that categories within FINANS can be reliably used to identify and extract data on human factors-related problems underlying trading incidents. Approximately 1% of trades (n = 750) lead to an incident. Slip/lapse (61%), situation awareness (51%), and teamwork (40%) were found to be the most common problems underlying incidents. For the most serious incidents, problems in situation awareness and teamwork were most common. CONCLUSION: We show that (a) experts in the trading domain can reliably and accurately code human factors in incidents, (b) 1% of trades incur error, and (c) poor teamwork skills and situation awareness underpin the most critical incidents. APPLICATION: This research provides data crucial for ameliorating risk within financial trading organizations, with implications for regulation and policy.

Generalised Sandpile Dynamics on Artificial and Real-World Directed Networks.

The main finding of this paper is a novel avalanche-size exponent τ ≈ 1.87 when the generalised sandpile dynamics evolves on the real-world Japanese inter-firm network. The topology of this network is non-layered and directed, displaying the typical bow tie structure found in real-world directed networks, with cycles and triangles. We show that one can move from a strictly layered regular lattice to a more fluid structure of the inter-firm network in a few simple steps. Relaxing the regular lattice structure by introducing an interlayer distribution for the interactions, forces the scaling exponent of the avalanche-size probability density function τ out of the two-dimensional directed sandpile universality class τ = 4/3, into the mean field universality class τ = 3/2. Numerical investigation shows that these two classes are the only that exist on the directed sandpile, regardless of the underlying topology, as long as it is strictly layered. Randomly adding a small proportion of links connecting non adjacent layers in an otherwise layered network takes the system out of the mean field regime to produce non-trivial avalanche-size probability density function. Although these do not display proper scaling, they closely reproduce the behaviour observed on the Japanese inter-firm network.