Indian Ocean temperature anomalies predict long-term global dengue trends.

Despite identifying El Niño events as a factor in dengue dynamics, predicting the oscillation of global dengue epidemics remains challenging. Here, we investigate climate indicators and worldwide dengue incidence from 1990 to 2019 using climate-driven mechanistic models. We identify a distinct indicator, the Indian Ocean basin-wide (IOBW) index, as representing the regional average of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean. IOBW is closely associated with dengue epidemics for both the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The ability of IOBW to predict dengue incidence likely arises as a result of its effect on local temperature anomalies through teleconnections. These findings indicate that the IOBW index can potentially enhance the lead time for dengue forecasts, leading to better-planned and more impactful outbreak responses.

Investigation of the Correlation between Enterovirus Infection and the Climate Factor Complex Including the Ping-Year Factor and El Niño-Southern Oscillation in Taiwan.

Enterovirus infection and enterovirus infection with severe complications (EVSC) are critical issues in several aspects. However, there is no suitable predictive tool for these infections. A climate factor complex (CFC) containing several climate factors could provide more effective predictions. The ping-year factor (PYF) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are possible CFCs. This study aimed to determine the relationship between these two CFCs and the incidence of enterovirus infection. Children aged 15 years and younger with enterovirus infection and/or EVSC were enrolled between 2007 and 2022. Each year was categorized into a ping-year or non-ping-year according to the PYF. Poisson regression was used to evaluate the associations between the PYF, ENSO, and the incidence of enterovirus infection. Compared to the ping-year group, the incidence rate of enterovirus infection, the incidence rate of EVSC, and the ratio of EVSC in the non-ping-year group were 1.24, 3.38, and 2.73 times higher, respectively (p < 0.001). For every one-unit increase in La Niña, the incidence rate of enterovirus infection decreased to 0.96 times (p < 0.001). Our study indicated that CFCs could be potential predictors for enterovirus infection, and the PYF was more suitable than ENSO. Further research is needed to improve the predictive model.

ENSO effects on the relationship between aerosols and evapotranspiration in the south of the Amazon biome.

The effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have local, regional, and global consequences for water regimes, causing floods or extreme drought events. Tropical forests are strongly affected by ENSO, and in the case of the Amazon, its territorial extension allows for a wide variation of these effects. The prolongation of drought events in the Amazon basin contributes to an increase in gas and aerosol particle emissions mainly caused by biomass burning, which in turn alter radiative fluxes and evapotranspiration rates, cyclically interfering with the hydrological regime. The ENSO effects on the interactions between aerosol particles and evapotranspiration is a critical aspect to be systematically investigated. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the ENSO effect on a site located on the southern portion of the Amazonian region. In addition to quantifying and testing possible differences between aerosols and evapotranspiration under different ENSO classes (El Niño, La Niña and Neutrality), this study also evaluated possible variations in evapotranspiration as a function of the aerosol load. A highly significant difference was found for air temperature, relative humidity and aerosol load between the El Niño and La Niña classes. For evapotranspiration, significant differences were found for the El Niño and La Niña classes and for El Niño and Neutrality classes. Under the Neutrality class, the aerosol load correlated significantly with evapotranspiration, explaining 20% of the phenomenon. Under the El Niño and La Niña classes, no significant linear correlation was found between aerosol load and evapotranspiration. However, the results showed that for the total data set, there is a positive and significant correlation between aerosol and evapotranspiration. It increases with a quadratic fit, i.e., the aerosol favors evapotranspiration rates up to a certain concentration threshold. The results obtained in this study can help to understand the effects of ENSO events on atmospheric conditions in the southern Amazon basin, in addition to elucidating the role of aerosols in feedback to the water cycle in the region.

Unveiling the role of climate in spatially synchronized locust outbreak risks.

Desert locusts threaten crop production and food security. Spatially synchronized locust outbreaks further exacerbate these crises. Continental-scale understanding of such compound locust risks and underlying climatic drivers is crucial to designing coordinated and predictive control strategies but remains elusive. Here, we develop a data-driven framework to assess the compound risk of locust outbreaks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and elucidate the role of climate in locust dynamics. We find that more than one-fifth of high-risk country pairs faced spatially synchronized locust risks from 1985 to 2020, dominated by concurrent winds or inundations. Individual locusts are more prone to infest arid areas punched by extreme rainfall. The spatial prevalence of locusts is strongly modulated by climate variability such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation. A warming climate will lead to widespread increases in locust outbreaks with emerging hotspots in west central Asia, posing additional challenges to the global coordination of locust control.

Tropical decadal variability in nutrient supply and phytoplankton community in the Central Equatorial Pacific during the late Holocene.

We have reconstructed baseline δ15N and δ13C of export production at Kingman Reef in the Central Equatorial Pacific (CEP) at sub-decadal resolution, nearly continuously over the last 2000 years. The changes in δ15N reflects the strength of the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) relative to the South Equatorial Current (SEC), and to a lesser extent, the North Equatorial Current (NEC). Seasonal to multi-decadal variation in the strength of these currents, through the redistribution of heat, have global climate impacts and influence marine and terrestrial ecosystems. We use modern El Niño-La Nina dynamics and the Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability (TPDV) pattern, which is defined in the CEP, as a framework for analyzing the isotopic data. The CEP δ15N and δ13C records exhibit multi-decadal (50-60 year) variability consistent with TPDV. A large multi-centennial feature in the CEP δ15N data, within age-model uncertainties, is consistent with one of the prolonged dry-pluvial sequences in the American west at the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, where low TPDV is correlated with drier conditions. This unique record shows that the strength of the NECC, as reflected in baseline δ15N and δ13C, has at quasi-predictable intervals throughout the late Holocene, toggled the phytoplankton community between prokaryotes and picoplankton versus eukaryotes.

Augmented human thermal discomfort in urban centers of the Arabian Peninsula.

Anthropogenic climate change has amplified human thermal discomfort in urban environments. Despite the considerable risks posed to public health, there is a lack of comprehensive research, evaluating the spatiotemporal changes in human thermal discomfort and its characteristics in hot-hyper arid regions, such as the Arabian Peninsula (AP). The current study analyzes spatiotemporal changes in human thermal discomfort categories and their characteristics in AP, using the newly developed high-resolution gridded ERA5-HEAT (Human thErmAl comforT) dataset for the period 1979-2022. In addition, the study assesses the interplay between the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices for the study period. The results reveal a significant increase in human thermal discomfort and its characteristics, with higher spatial variability in the AP region. The major urban centers in the southwestern, central, and southeastern parts of AP have experienced significant increases in human thermal discomfort (0.4-0.8 °C), with higher frequency and intensity of thermal stress during the study period. The temporal distribution demonstrates a linear increase in UTCI indices and their frequencies and intensities, particularly from 1998 onward, signifying a transition towards a hotter climate characterized by frequent, intense, and prolonged heat stress conditions. Moreover, the UTCI and ENSO indices exhibit a dipole pattern of correlation with a positive (negative) pattern in the southwestern (eastern parts) of AP. The study's findings suggest that policymakers and urban planners need to prioritize public health and well-being in AP's urban areas, especially for vulnerable groups, by implementing climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, and carefully designing future cities to mitigate the effects of heat stress.

Distribution of the N2 -fixing cyanobacterium Candidatus Atelocyanobacterium thalassa in the Mexican Pacific upwelling system under two contrasting El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions.

The unicellular cyanobacterium Candidatus Atelocyanobacterium thalassa (UCYN-A) is a key diazotroph in the global ocean owing to its high N2 fixation rates and wide distribution in marine environments. Nevertheless, little is known about UCYN-A in oxygen-deficient zones (ODZs), which may be optimal environments for marine diazotrophy. Therefore, the distribution and diversity of UCYN-A were studied in two consecutive years under contrasting phases (La Niña vs. El Niño) of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) along a transect in the ODZ of the Mexican Pacific upwelling system. Of the three UCYN-A sublineages found, UCYN-A1 and UCYN-A3 were barely detected, whereas UCYN-A2 was dominant in all the stations and showed a wide distribution in both ENSO phases. The presence of UCYN-A was associated with well-oxygenated waters, but it was also found for the first time under suboxic conditions (<20 µM) at the bottom of a shallow coastal station, within the oxygen-poor and nutrient-rich Subsurface Subtropical water mass. This study contributes to the understanding of UCYN-A distribution under different oceanographic conditions associated with ENSO phases in upwelling systems, especially because of the current climate change and increasing deoxygenation in many areas of the world's oceans.

Bioenergetic status of swordfish (Xiphias gladius) during the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Southeast Pacific Ocean: An interannual scale.

The bioenergetic status of fishes has been used to study their physiological responses to temporal changes at interannual scales. We evaluated the physiological responses of swordfish at an interannual scale from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): warm phase "El Niño" in 2015 to the cold phase "La Niña" in 2017 and under neutral conditions as well in 2019. Herein, muscle samples from females and males were analyzed to evaluate the bioenergetic status from their biochemical constituents (L: lipids, P: proteins and G: glucose, E: total energy, and FAs: fatty acid profile), elemental composition (C: carbon, N: nitrogen, H: hydrogen), and nutritional indices (L:P, C:N, DHA/C18:1n-3, DHA/C16:0 and ω3/ω6 FAs). The physiological response of swordfish showed an interaction between the year and sex. Herein, the L and E showed similar trends, with the lowest female values found in 2015 and the highest in 2019. Contrary, males showed their highest values in 2015 and lowest in 2019. FA profile differed among years and highlighted significant differences between females and males in 2019. Although the female L:P and C:N ratios were lower in 2015 than in 2017, a decreasing trend in these ratios was found from 2017 to 2019. Moreover, DHA/C18:1n-3, DHA/C16:0 and ω3/ω6 showed higher ratios in females than males in 2019. Our results coincide with the beginning of the ENSO phases; it is therefore likely that the swordfish diet changed in response to the disturbances in environmental conditions. Furthermore, the degree of individual dietary specialization found under the neutral conditions could indicate differences in the feeding behaviors of males vs. females, which may be an adaptive strategy in this species. These findings will aid in understanding the bioenergetic status of swordfish under different climatic scenarios and the current global warming, providing relevant information for the management of this resource.

The coral chronicles.

On a remote Pacific island, clues to El Niño's future are preserved in ancient reefs.

Effect of environmental variables on the incidence of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Brazil and Colombia.

Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is the most severe of the three forms of Leishmaniasis. In the Americas, Brazil and Colombia present more than 90 % of the cases in the region. Our aim in this research was to estimate the association of the incidence rate of Visceral Leishmaniasis with the following environmental variables: the percentage of area suitable for the vector Lutzomyia longipalpis, the episodes of La Niña and El Niño, the Brazilian and Colombian biomes. Epidemiological data were obtained from the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System and the Colombian National Public Health Surveillance System. Environmental data were downloaded from the NASA Giovanni web app, the Modis Sensor database, and the meteorological agencies of Australia, Japan, and the United States of America. Records of the presence of Lu. longipalpis were obtained from public databases and previous studies. As a result, the incidence per 10,000 inhabitants with LEBS for each El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode showed the largest values during El Niño 2015-2016, mainly in Brazil's Northeast and Central regions and the Northeast region of Colombia. Compared with the Neutral 2012-2014 episode, the episodes of El Niño 2015-2016 and La Niña 2010-2011 showed an average increase in the monthly incidence rate of VL, and the average increase was higher during El Niño 2015-2016 (aIRR = 2.304 vs.1.453) We found a positive association between the incidence rate of VL and the El Niño 2015-2016 episode and an impressive% of area suitable for the vector Lu. longipalpis in the Amazon region.An increase of 1 % in the area suitable for the vector Lu. longipalpis leads to an average rise of 0.8 % in the monthly incidence rate of VL. Our study shows a possible association between VL incidence and ENSO, with the most considerable incidence rates observed during El Niño 2015-2016 in Brazil's Northeast and Central regions and the Northeast region of Colombia. The present study is very important to better understand the Visceral Leishmaniasis transmission dynamics.

The effect of El Niño and La Niña episodes on the existing niche and potential distribution of vector and host species of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis.

Leishmaniasis is a zoonotic disease transmitted to humans by a protozoan parasite through sandfly vectors and multiple vertebrate hosts. The Pan American Health Organization reported a declining trend in cases, with Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Nicaragua, and Bolivia having the most cases in 2020. There are still knowledge gaps in transmission and the parasite-host relationship. Ecological niche modeling has been used to study host-vector relationships, disease dynamics, and the impact of climate change. Understanding these aspects can aid in early surveillance and vector control strategies. The potential distribution of five host species associated with the transmission of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) was modeled. Occurrence data were collected for each host species, and environmental variables were used to build the models. Climatic data from El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral episodes were used to compare the predicted distributions. Additionally, the potential distributions of four vector species were compared to identify overlaps with host species. Niche analysis was conducted to evaluate changes in vector niches across episodes and to identify host-vector pairs based on niche overlap in geographic and environmental spaces. After spatial thinning, 467 records were obtained, and 1,190 candidate models were evaluated for each species. Results showed the distribution of occurrences in the environmental space, highlighting a high risk of extrapolation beyond the calibration areas. Movement-Oriented Parity analysis revealed distinct distribution patterns under different climate conditions, with areas of environmental similarity identified. Bradypus variegatus exhibited a broad potential distribution, while Dasypus novemcinctus and Didelphis marsupialis had more restricted ranges. Sylvilagus braziliensis covered most of the Neotropics. Our study provides valuable insights into ecological niches and geographic ranges of these species, contributing to the understanding of cutaneous leishmaniasis transmission dynamics.

Does the 11-year solar cycle affect lake and river ice phenology?

Records of ice-on and ice-off dates are available for lakes and rivers across the Northern Hemisphere spanning decades and in some cases centuries. This data provides an opportunity to investigate the climatic processes that may control ice phenology. Previous studies have reported a trend toward shorter ice-covered seasons with global warming, as well as links between ice phenology and several modes of natural climate variability such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific-North American Pattern, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The 11-year sunspot cycle has also been proposed as a driver of ice phenology, which is somewhat surprising given that this cycle's strongest impacts are in the stratosphere. In this study, we use a large data set of lakes and rivers across the Northern Hemisphere to test this potential link. We find little or no connection between the sunspot cycle and either ice-on or ice-off dates. We conclude that while many well-known climate cycles do impact ice phenology, we are able to rule out any strong impact of the solar cycle.

Microbial shifts associated to ENSO-derived thermal anomalies reveal coral acclimation at holobiont level.

The coral microbiome conforms a proxy to study effects of changing environmental conditions. However, scarce information exists regarding microbiome dynamics and host acclimation in response to environmental changes associated to global-scale disturbances. We assessed El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-derived thermal anomalies shifts in the bacterial microbiome of Pacifigorgia cairnsi (Gorgoniidae: Octocorallia) from the remote island of Malpelo in the Tropical Eastern Pacific. Malpelo is a hot spot of biodiversity and lacks direct coastal anthropogenic impacts. We evaluated the community composition and predicted functional profiles of the microbiome during 2015, 2017 and 2018, including different phases of ENSO cycle. The bacterial community diversity and composition between the warming and cooling phase were similar, but differed from the neutral phase. Relative abundances of different microbiome core members such as Endozoicomonas and Mycoplasma mainly drove these differences. An acclimated coral holobiont is suggested not just to warm but also to cold stress by embracing similar microbiome shifts and functional redundancy that allow maintaining coral's viability under thermal stress. Responses of the microbiome of unperturbed sea fans such as P. cairnsi in Malpelo could be acting as an extended phenotype facilitating the acclimation at the holobiont level.

Effects of ENSO events on the intensity, seasonality, and diversity of reproductive phenology of Miconia (Melastomataceae) species in tropical rainforest.

We evaluated the phenology and reproductive phenological diversity of three sympatric species of Miconia in a gallery forest in the Chapada Diamantina mountains, Bahia, Brazil. The reproductive phenophases (bud, flower, immature fruit, and mature fruit) of M. alborufescens (N=38), M. holosericea (N=46), and M. prasina (N=44) were evaluated monthly, between June/2008 and June/2015. The Fournier index was used to assess the intensities of the reproductive phenophases; synchrony and seasonality were analyzed using circular statistics and the Rayleigh (Z) test. The Frideman and Wilcoxon tests were used to verify interannual variations in phenological patterns. Reproductive phenological diversity was measured by calculating the Shannon-Wiener index; ANOVA tested possible differences in the means of diversity among the different years. The reproductive phenophases of the studied Miconia species occurred sequentially (M. alborufescens, then M. holoserica, followed by M. prasina), in the transition between the dry and rainy seasons, with little overlap between them. In general, the species showed seasonal and synchronic phenological patterns, with some variations that coincided with El Niño and/or La Niña events, e.g., demonstrating changes in the periodicity, synchrony, and intensity of their phenophases. The intensity of fruiting, for example, showed increases during La Niña years. Reproductive phenological diversity appears to respond to climate changes resulting from El Niño events and periods of prolonged drought, with high Shannon-Wiener index values. The results also suggest that the effects of global climatic phenomena (El Niño and La Niña) that alter regional climatic seasonality can also cause variations in the reproductive phenological rhythms of the Miconia species studied.

Paradoxical behaviour of rainfall and temperature over ecologically sensitive areas along the Western Ghats.

Initial reports signify some specific isolated locations in different latitudes, revealing a paradoxical increase in both heavy and very heavy rainfall events and also an increment in total, i.e., in both rainfall and temperature, over ecologically sensitive areas along the Western Ghats (WG). This paper presents a coherent study of the full-scale of daily rainfall and temperature over 27 well-spaced stations in the study area to determine its extent and investigate whether or not this contradictory behaviour is real. Also, an attempt has been made to assess the differential behaviour of rainfall, temperature, and heavy rainfall events in association with land use and land cover change (LULC). The analysis revealed that rainfall and temperature over the study area are increasing, whereas heavy rainfall events have increased during 1981-2020 with strong peaks after 2000 around 18-19°N (Mumbai metropolitan region), 14-16°N (mining and quarrying regions in Goa), and 9-12°N (a narrow strip of land spanning across the coastal towns of Karnataka and Kerala) latitudes. The majority of the rainfall excess years coincided with El Nino years, indicating that El Nino does not affect rainfall negatively. However, rainfall over the WG is influenced by local relief and cascading topography. The spatial pattern of average annual rainfall shows a decreasing trend from south to north because the elevation and span of rainfall occurrence are higher in the southern part of WG. The findings of the current research will help in building a strategy to address trends and patterns of climatic variables in association with LULC.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation forcing on carbon and water cycling in a Bornean tropical rainforest.

Carbon dioxide and water vapor exchanges between tropical forest canopies and the atmosphere through photosynthesis, respiration, and evapotranspiration (ET) influence carbon and water cycling at the regional and global scales. Their inter- and intra-annual variations are sensitive to seasonal rhythms and longer-timescale tropical climatic events. In the present study, we assessed the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on ET and on the net ecosystem exchange (NEE), using eddy-covariance flux observations in a Bornean rainforest over a 10-y period (2010-2019) that included several El Niño and La Niña events. From flux model inversions, we inferred ecophysiological properties, notably the canopy stomatal conductance and "big-leaf" maximum carboxylation rate (Vcmax25_BL). Mean ET values were similar between ENSO phases (El Niño, La Niña, and neutral conditions). Conversely, the mean net ecosystem productivity was highest during La Niña events and lowest during El Niño events. Combining Shapley additive explanation calculations for nine controlling factors with a machine-learning algorithm, we determined that the primary factors for ET and NEE in the La Niña and neutral phases were incoming shortwave solar radiation and Vcmax25_BL, respectively, but that canopy stomatal conductance was the most significant factor for both ET and NEE in the El Niño phase. A combined stomatal-photosynthesis model approach further indicated that Vcmax25_BL differences between ENSO phases were the most significant controlling factor for canopy photosynthesis, emphasizing the strong need to account for ENSO-induced ecophysiological factor variations in model projections of the long-term carbon balance in Southeast Asian tropical rainforests.

Disentangling local and global climate drivers in the population dynamics of mosquito-borne infections.

Identifying climate drivers is essential to understand and predict epidemics of mosquito-borne infections whose population dynamics typically exhibit seasonality and multiannual cycles. Which climate covariates to consider varies across studies, from local factors such as temperature to remote drivers such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. With partial wavelet coherence, we present a systematic investigation of nonstationary associations between mosquito-borne disease incidence and a given climate factor while controlling for another. Analysis of almost 200 time series of dengue and malaria around the globe at different geographical scales shows a systematic effect of global climate drivers on interannual variability and of local ones on seasonality. This clear separation of time scales of action enhances detection of climate drivers and indicates those best suited for building early-warning systems.

Reflections on the impact and response to the Peruvian 2017 Coastal El Niño event: Looking to the past to prepare for the future.

Climate-related phenomena in Peru have been slowly but continuously changing in recent years beyond historical variability. These include sea surface temperature increases, irregular precipitation patterns and reduction of glacier-covered areas. In addition, climate scenarios show amplification in rainfall variability related to the warmer conditions associated with El Niño events. Extreme weather can affect human health, increase shocks and stresses to the health systems, and cause large economic losses. In this article, we study the characteristics of El Niño events in Peru, its health and economic impacts and we discuss government preparedness for this kind of event, identify gaps in response, and provide evidence to inform adequate planning for future events and mitigating impacts on highly vulnerable regions and populations. This is the first case study to review the impact of a Coastal El Niño event on Peru's economy, public health, and governance. The 2017 event was the third strongest El Niño event according to literature, in terms of precipitation and river flooding and caused important economic losses and health impacts. At a national level, these findings expose a need for careful consideration of the potential limitations of policies linked to disaster prevention and preparedness when dealing with El Niño events. El Niño-related policies should be based on local-level risk analysis and efficient preparedness measures in the face of emergencies.

Marine Heatwave Caused Differentiated Dysbiosis in Photosymbiont Assemblages of Corals and Hydrocorals During El Niño 2015/2016.

Reef corals have been threatened by climate change, with more frequent and intense bleaching events leading to extensive coral mortality and loss of coral cover worldwide. In the face of this, the corals' photosymbiont assemblages have received special attention as a key to better understand the bleaching process and its recovery. To assess the effects of thermal anomalies, the coral Mussismilia harttii and the hydrocoral Millepora alcicornis were monitored through the El Niño 2015/2016 at a Southwestern Atlantic (SWA) coral reef. A severe bleaching event (57% of colonies bleached) was documented, triggered by a < 3 °C-week heatwave, but no mortality was detected. The hydrocoral was more susceptible than the scleractinian, displaying bleaching symptoms earlier and experiencing a longer and more intense bleaching event. The composition of photosymbionts in the M. alcicornis population was affected only at the rare biosphere level (< 5% relative abundance), with the emergence of new symbionts after bleaching. Conversely, a temporary dysbiosis was observed in the M. harttii population, with one of the dominant symbiodiniaceans decreasing in relative abundance at the peak of the bleaching, which negatively affected the total ß-diversity. After colonies' complete recovery, symbiodiniaceans' dominances returned to normal levels in both hosts. These results highlight critical differences in how the two coral species cope with bleaching and contribute to the understanding of the role of photosymbionts throughout the bleaching-recovery process.