Interactive effects of drought and deforestation on multitrophic communities and aquatic ecosystem functions in the Neotropics-a test using tank bromeliads.

Background: Together with the intensification of dry seasons in Neotropical regions, increasing deforestation is expected to exacerbate species extinctions, something that could lead to dramatic shifts in multitrophic communities and ecosystem functions. Recent studies suggest that the effects of habitat loss are greater where precipitation has decreased. Yet, experimental studies of the pure and interactive effects of drought and deforestation at ecosystem level remain scarce. Methods: Here, we used rainshelters and transplantation from rainforest to open areas of natural microcosms (the aquatic ecosystem and microbial-faunal food web found within the rainwater-filled leaves of tank bromeliads) to emulate drought and deforestation in a full factorial experimental design. We analysed the pure and interactive effects of our treatments on functional community structure (including microorganisms, detritivore and predatory invertebrates), and on leaf litter decomposition in tank bromeliad ecosystems. Results: Drought or deforestation alone had a moderate impact on biomass at the various trophic level, but did not eliminate species. However, their interaction synergistically reduced the biomass of all invertebrate functional groups and bacteria. Predators were the most impacted trophic group as they were totally eliminated, while detritivore biomass was reduced by about 95%. Fungal biomass was either unaffected or boosted by our treatments. Decomposition was essentially driven by microbial activity, and did not change across treatments involving deforestation and/or drought. Conclusions: Our results suggest that highly resistant microorganisms such as fungi (plus a few detritivores) maintain key ecosystem functions in the face of drought and habitat change. We conclude that habitat destruction compounds the problems of climate change, that the impacts of the two phenomena on food webs are mutually reinforcing, and that the stability of ecosystem functions depends on the resistance of a core group of organisms. Assuming that taking global action is more challenging than taking local-regional actions, policy-makers should be encouraged to implement environmental action plans that will halt habitat destruction, to dampen any detrimental interactive effect with the impacts of global climate change.

Comparing trophic position estimates using bulk and compound specific stable isotope analyses: applying new approaches to mackerel icefish Champsocephalus gunnari.

Quantifying the tropic position (TP) of an animal species is key to understanding its ecosystem function. While both bulk and compound-specific analyses of stable isotopes are widely used for this purpose, few studies have assessed the consistency between and within such approaches. Champsocephalus gunnari is a specialist teleost that predates almost exclusively on Antarctic krill Euphausia superba. This well-known and nearly constant trophic relationship makes C. gunnari particularly suitable for assessing consistency between TP methods under field conditions. In the present work, we produced and compared TP estimates for C. gunnari and its main prey using a standard bulk and two amino acid-specific stable isotope approaches (CSI-AA). One based on the difference between glutamate and phenylalanine (TPGlx-Phe), and the other on the proline-phenylalanine difference (TPPro-Phe). To do that, samples from C. gunnari, E. superba and four other pelagic invertebrate and fish species, all potential prey for C.gunnari, were collected off the South Orkney Islands between January and March 2019, analyzed using standard isotopic ratio mass spectrometry methods and interpreted following a Bayesian approach. Median estimates (CI95%) for C. gunnari were similar between TPbulk (3.6; CI95%: 3.0-4.8) and TPGlx-Phe(3.4; CI95%:3.2-3.6), and lower for TPPro-Phe (3.1; CI95%:3.0-3.3). TP differences between C. gunnari and E. superba were 1.4, 1.1 and 1.2, all compatible with expectations from the monospecific diet of this predator (ΔTP=1). While these results suggest greater accuracy for Glx-Phe and Pro-Phe, differences observed between both CSI-AA approaches suggests these methods may require further validation before becoming a standard tool for trophic ecology.

Trophic interactions in microbiomes influence plant host population size and ecosystem function.

Plant microbiomes that comprise diverse microorganisms, including prokaryotes, eukaryotes and viruses, are the key determinants of plant population dynamics and ecosystem function. Despite their importance, little is known about how species interactions (especially trophic interactions) between microbes from different domains modify the importance of microbiomes for plant hosts and ecosystems. Using the common duckweed Lemna minor, we experimentally examined the effects of predation (by bacterivorous protists) and parasitism (by bacteriophages) within microbiomes on plant population size and ecosystem phosphorus removal. Our results revealed that the addition of predators increased plant population size and phosphorus removal, whereas the addition of parasites showed the opposite pattern. The structural equation modelling further pointed out that predation and parasitism affected plant population size and ecosystem function via distinct mechanisms that were both mediated by microbiomes. Our results highlight the importance of understanding microbial trophic interactions for predicting the outcomes and ecosystem impacts of plant-microbiome symbiosis.

Local and landscape factors shape alpha and beta trophic interaction diversity in urban gardens.

Promoting urban green spaces is an effective strategy to increase biodiversity in cities. However, our understanding of how local and landscape factors influence trophic interactions in these urban contexts remains limited. Here, we sampled cavity-nesting bees and wasps and their natural enemies within 85 urban gardens in Zurich (Switzerland) to identify factors associated with the diversity and dissimilarity of antagonistic interactions in these communities. The proportions of built-up area and urban green area at small landscape scales (50 m radius), as well as the management intensity, sun exposure, plant richness and proportion of agricultural land at the landscape scale (250 m radius), were key drivers of interaction diversity. This increased interaction diversity resulted not only from the higher richness of host and natural enemy species, but also from species participating in more interactions. Furthermore, dissimilarity in community structure and interactions across gardens (beta-diversity) were primarily influenced by differences in built-up areas and urban green areas at the landscape scale, as well as by management intensity. Our study offers crucial insights for urban planning and conservation strategies, supporting sustainability goals by helping to understand the factors that shape insect communities and their trophic interactions in urban gardens.

Temperature alters the predator-prey size relationships and size-selectivity of Southern Ocean fish.

A primary response of many marine ectotherms to warming is a reduction in body size, to lower the metabolic costs associated with higher temperatures. The impact of such changes on ecosystem dynamics and stability will depend on the resulting changes to community size-structure, but few studies have investigated how temperature affects the relative size of predators and their prey in natural systems. We utilise >3700 prey size measurements from ten Southern Ocean lanternfish species sampled across >10° of latitude to investigate how temperature influences predator-prey size relationships and size-selective feeding. As temperature increased, we show that predators became closer in size to their prey, which was primarily associated with a decline in predator size and an increase in the relative abundance of intermediate-sized prey. The potential implications of these changes include reduced top-down control of prey populations and a reduction in the diversity of predator-prey interactions. Both of these factors could reduce the stability of community dynamics and ecosystem resistance to perturbations under ocean warming.

Comparison of δ13C and δ15N of ecologically relevant amino acids among beluga whale tissues.

Ecological applications of compound-specific stable isotope analysis (CSIA) of amino acids (AAs) include 1) tracking carbon pathways in food webs using essential AA (AAESS) δ13C values, and 2) estimating consumer trophic position (TP) by comparing relative differences of 'trophic' and 'source' AA δ15N values. Despite the significance of these applications, few studies have examined AA-specific SI patterns among tissues with different AA compositions and metabolism/turnover rates, which could cause differential drawdown of body AA pools and impart tissue-specific isotopic fractionation. To address this knowledge gap, especially in the absence of controlled diet studies examining this issue in captive marine mammals, we used a paired-sample design to compare δ13C and δ15N values of 11 AAs in commonly sampled tissues (skin, muscle, and dentine) from wild beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas). δ13C of two AAs, glutamic acid/glutamine (Glx, a non-essential AA) and, notably, threonine (an essential AA), differed between skin and muscle. Furthermore, δ15N of three AAs (alanine, glycine, and proline) differed significantly among the three tissues, with glycine δ15N differences of approximately 10 ‰ among tissues supporting recent findings it is unsuitable as a source AA. Significant δ15N differences in AAs such as proline, a trophic AA used as an alternative to Glx in TP estimation, highlight tissue selection as a potential source of error in ecological applications of CSIA-AA. Amino acids that differed among tissues play key roles in metabolic pathways (e.g., ketogenic and gluconeogenic AAs), pointing to potential physiological applications of CSIA-AA in studies of free-ranging animals. These findings underscore the complexity of isotopic dynamics within tissues and emphasize the need for a nuanced approach when applying CSIA-AA in ecological research.

Sources and fate of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids in a highly eutrophic lake.

Omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (ω3-PUFA) are central to the growth and reproduction of aquatic consumers. Dissolved nutrients in aquatic ecosystems strongly affect algal taxonomic composition and thus the production and transfer of specific ω3-PUFA to consumers at higher trophic levels. However, most studies were conducted in nutrient-poor, oligotrophic lakes, leading to an insufficient understanding of how water nutrients affect algal ω3-PUFA and their trophic transfer in consumers in highly eutrophic lakes. We conducted a field investigation in a highly eutrophic lake and collected basal food sources (phytoplankton, periphyton and macrophytes) and aquatic consumers (invertebrates, zooplankton and fish), and measured their fatty acid (FA) composition. Our results showed that periphyton and phytoplankton were both important sources of ω3-PUFA supporting the highly eutrophic lake food web. High water nutrient levels led to low ω3-PUFA levels in phytoplankton and periphyton, resulting in decreased nutritional quality. Consequently, ω3-PUFA of invertebrates and zooplankton reflected variations in ω3-PUFA of phytoplankton and periphyton, respectively. The ω3-PUFA levels of fish decreased as phytoplankton and periphyton ω3-PUFA decreased. Among fish, the Redfin Culter (Cultrichthys erythropterus) and Bar Cheek Goby (Rhinogobius giurinus) exhibited significantly higher levels of EPA and DHA compared to the Pond Loach (Misgurnus anguillicaudatus), which may have been caused by their different feeding modes. Decreases in the ω3-PUFA levels of basal food sources may be one of the causes leading to the reduction of trophic links in aquatic food webs. Our study elucidated the sources and fate of ω3-PUFA in highly eutrophic lakes, complemented previous studies in oligo- and mesotrophic lakes, and emphasized the role of high-quality food sources. Our results offer new perspectives for the conservation and management of highly eutrophic lake ecosystems.

Tree diversity enhances predation by birds but not by arthropods across climate gradients.

Tree diversity can promote both predator abundance and diversity. However, whether this translates into increased predation and top-down control of herbivores across predator taxonomic groups and contrasting environmental conditions remains unresolved. We used a global network of tree diversity experiments (TreeDivNet) spread across three continents and three biomes to test the effects of tree species richness on predation across varying climatic conditions of temperature and precipitation. We recorded bird and arthropod predation attempts on plasticine caterpillars in monocultures and tree species mixtures. Both tree species richness and temperature increased predation by birds but not by arthropods. Furthermore, the effects of tree species richness on predation were consistent across the studied climatic gradient. Our findings provide evidence that tree diversity strengthens top-down control of insect herbivores by birds, underscoring the need to implement conservation strategies that safeguard tree diversity to sustain ecosystem services provided by natural enemies in forests.

Seabirds reveal mercury distribution across the North Atlantic.

Mercury (Hg) is a heterogeneously distributed toxicant affecting wildlife and human health. Yet, the spatial distribution of Hg remains poorly documented, especially in food webs, even though this knowledge is essential to assess large-scale risk of toxicity for the biota and human populations. Here, we used seabirds to assess, at an unprecedented population and geographic magnitude and high resolution, the spatial distribution of Hg in North Atlantic marine food webs. To this end, we combined tracking data of 837 seabirds from seven different species and 27 breeding colonies located across the North Atlantic and Atlantic Arctic together with Hg analyses in feathers representing individual seabird contamination based on their winter distribution. Our results highlight an east-west gradient in Hg concentrations with hot spots around southern Greenland and the east coast of Canada and a cold spot in the Barents and Kara Seas. We hypothesize that those gradients are influenced by eastern (Norwegian Atlantic Current and West Spitsbergen Current) and western (East Greenland Current) oceanic currents and melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. By tracking spatial Hg contamination in marine ecosystems and through the identification of areas at risk of Hg toxicity, this study provides essential knowledge for international decisions about where the regulation of pollutants should be prioritized.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of unimodal and multimodal predation risk assessment in birds.

Despite a wealth of studies documenting prey responses to perceived predation risk, researchers have only recently begun to consider how prey integrate information from multiple cues in their assessment of risk. We conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that experimentally manipulated perceived predation risk in birds and evaluate support for three alternative models of cue integration: redundancy/equivalence, enhancement, and antagonism. One key insight from our analysis is that the current theory, generally applied to study cue integration in animals, is incomplete. These theories specify the effects of increasing information level on mean, but not variance, in responses. In contrast, we show that providing multiple complementary cues of predation risk simultaneously does not affect mean response. Instead, as information richness increases, populations appear to assess risk more accurately, resulting in lower among-population variance in response to manipulations of perceived predation risk. We show that this may arise via a statistical process called maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) integration. Our meta-analysis illustrates how explicit consideration of variance in responses can yield important biological insights.

Exploring the spatial variation of mercury in the Gulf of St. Lawrence using northern gannets as fish samplers.

Mercury (Hg) is a ubiquitous and pervasive environmental contaminant with detrimental effects on wildlife, which originates from both natural and anthropogenic sources. Its distribution within ecosystems is influenced by various biogeochemical processes, making it crucial to elucidate the factors driving this variability. To explore these factors, we employed an innovative method to use northern gannets (Morus bassanus) as biological samplers of regurgitated fish in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. We assessed fish total Hg (THg) concentrations in relation to their geographical catch location as well as to pertinent biotic and anthropogenic factors. In small fish species, trophic position, calculated from compound-specific stable nitrogen isotopes in amino acids, emerged as the most influential predictor of THg concentrations. For large fish species, THg concentrations were best explained by δ13C, indicating higher concentrations in inshore habitats. No anthropogenic factors, such as pollution, shipping traffic, or coastal development, were significantly related to THg concentrations in fish. Moreover, previously published THg data in mussels sampled nearby were positively linked with THg concentrations in gannet prey, suggesting consistent mercury distribution across trophic levels in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Our findings point to habitat-dependent variability in THg concentrations across multiple trophic levels. Our study could have many potential uses in the future, including the identification of vulnerability hotspots for fish populations and their predators, or assessing risk factors for seabirds themselves by using biologically relevant prey.

Bioaccumulation and trophic transfer of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances in a subtropical mangrove estuary food web.

Mangrove estuaries are an important land-sea transitional ecosystem that is currently under various pollution pressures, while there is a lack of research on per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in the organisms of mangrove estuaries. In this study, we investigated the distribution and seasonal variation of PFAS in the tissues of organisms from a mangrove estuary. The PFAS concentrations in fish tissues varied from 0.45 ng/g ww to 17.67 ng/g ww and followed the order of viscera > head > carcass > muscle, with the highest tissue burden found in the fish carcass (39.59 ng). The log BAF values of PFDoDA, PFUnDA, and PFDA in the whole fish exceeded 3.70, indicating significant bioaccumulation. The trophic transfer of PFAS in the mangrove estuary food web showed a dilution effect, which was mainly influenced by the spatial heterogeneity of PFAS distribution in the estuarine environment, and demonstrated that the gradient dilution of PFAS in the estuary habitat environment can disguise the PFAS bio-magnification in estuarine organisms, and the larger the swimming ranges of organisms, the more pronounced the bio-dilution effect. The PFOA-equivalent HRs of category A and B fish were 3.48-5.17 and 2.59-4.01, respectively, indicating that mangrove estuarine residents had a high PFAS exposure risk through the intake of estuarine fish.

Influence of trophic overlaps and trophic niche amplitude on microplastic intake of fish species in shallow areas of a neotropical coastal lagoon.

Plastic pollution is a global challenge that affects all marine ecosystems, and reflects all types of uses and activities of human society in these environments. In marine ecosystems, microplastics and mesoplastics interact with invertebrates and become available to higher predators, such as fish, which can ingest these contaminants. This study aimed to analyze how ecological food interactions (diet overlap and trophic niche amplitude) among fish species contribute to the ingestion of plastic particles. The gastrointestinal contents of six fish species (Atherinella brasiliensis, Eucinostomus melanopterus, Eucinostomus argenteus, Genidens genidens, Coptodon rendalli, and Geophagus brasiliensis) were analyzed to identify prey items and plastic ingestion. Based on the ontogenetic classification, A. brasiliensis, E. melanopterus, and G. genidens were divided into juveniles and adults, and the six fish species analyzed were divided into nine predator groups. Most of the plastics ingested by the fish species were blue microplastic (MP) fibers (< 0.05 mm) classified as polyester terephthalate, polyethylene, and polybutadiene. Considering all the analyzed predators, the average number and weight of plastics ingested per individual were 2.01 and 0.0005 g, respectively. We observed that predators with a high trophic overlap could present a relationship with the intake of MP fibers owing to predation on the same resources. In addition, we observed the general pattern that when a species expands its trophic diversity and niche, it can become more susceptible to plastic ingestion. For example, the species with the highest Levin niche amplitude, E. argenteus juveniles, had the highest mean number (2.9) of ingested MP fibers. Understanding the feeding ecology and interactions among species, considering how each predator uses habitats and food resources, can provide a better understanding of how plastic particle contamination occurs and which habitats are contaminated with these polluting substances.

The masking phenomenon of microplastics additives on oxidative stress responses in freshwater food chains.

The variability and intrinsic mechanisms of oxidative stress induced by microplastics at different trophic levels in freshwater food chains are not well understood. To comprehensively assess the oxidative stress induced by polystyrene microplastics (PS-MPs) in freshwater food chains, the present study first quantified the oxidative stress induced by PS-MPs in organisms at different trophic levels using factorial experimental design and molecular dynamics methods. Then focuses on analyzing the variability of these responses across different trophic levels using mathematical statistical analysis. Notably, higher trophic level organisms exhibit diminished responses under PS-MPs exposure. Furthermore, the coexistence of multiple additives was found to mask these responses, with antioxidant plastic additives significantly influencing oxidative stress responses. Mechanism analysis using computational chemistry simulation determines that protein structure and amino acid characteristics are key factors driving PS-MPs induced oxidative stress variation in freshwater organisms at different nutrient levels. Increased hydrophobic additives induce protein helicalization and amino acid residue aggregation. This study systematically reveals the variability of biological oxidative stress response under different nutrient levels, emphasizing the pivotal role of chemical additives. Overall, this study offers crucial insights into PS-MPs' impact on oxidative stress responses in freshwater ecosystems, informing future environmental risk assessment.

Distribution, migration patterns, and food chain human health risks of endocrine-disrupting chemicals in water, sediments, and fish in the Xiangjiang River.

Exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in freshwater systems has garnered increasing attention. A comprehensive analysis of the migration patterns, bioaccumulation, and consumer health risk of EDCs along the Xiangjiang River due to fish consumption from the river ecosystem was provided. Twenty natural and synthetic target EDCs were detected and analyzed from the water, sediments, and fish samples collected along the Xiangjiang River. There were significant correlations between the EDC concentrations in fish and the sediments. This revealed that EDCs in sediments play a dominant role in the uptake of EDCs by fish. The bioaccumulation factor and biota-sediment accumulation factor were calculated, with the highest values observed for nonylphenol. Pearson's correlation analysis showed that bisphenol A is the most reliable biological indicator of EDC contamination in fish. Furthermore, based on the threshold of toxicological concerns and the health risk with dietary intake, crucian carp and catfish from the Xiangjiang River pose a certain risk for children and pregnant women compared to grass carp. The Monte Carlo simulation results indicated a certain risk of cumulative ∑EDC exposure for local residents due to fish consumption.

Crown-of-thorns seastar (Acanthaster spp.) feeding ecology across species and regions.

The coral predators, crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS, Acanthaster spp.) remain a major cause of extensive and widespread coral loss in Indo-Pacific coral reefs. With increased phylogenetic understanding of these seastars, at least five species appear to be present across different regions. We compare the feeding ecology of these species. Where acroporid corals are prevalent, Acanthaster spp. often exhibit a preference for these corals, with Porites being least preferred, as seen in most species including Acanthaster planci in the northern Indian Ocean and Acanthaster cf. solaris in the west Pacific. In the eastern Pacific, where Acropora is largely absent, Acanthaster cf. ellisii prey on a range of coral species, including Porites. Coral predation by COTS is influenced by several factors including food availability, coral nutritional value, protective crustaceans and coral defenses, with differences in feeding ecology and behaviour emerging across the different COTS species. Feeding behaviour of COTS can act to increase coral species richness by reducing the dominance of fast-growing species. In outbreaking populations, COTS impacts reef systems by reducing live coral cover, eroding reef complexity and causing shifts in reef trophic structure. Where data are available, we synthesise and contrast the feeding preferences and foraging behaviour of Acanthaster species, and their impact on coral assemblages across the different species and regions. For areas where focal predation on Acropora occurs, also the fastest growing coral with the greatest recovery potential following mass mortality events, the combination of climate change and COTS outbreaks presents an imminent threat to coral reefs. This is exacerbated by the dietary flexibility of Acanthaster species. The impacts of heatwaves, COTS and other stressors are creating a negative feedback loop accelerating coral reef decline.

Biodiversity loss impacts top-down regulation of insect herbivores across ecosystem boundaries.

Biodiversity loss, as driven by anthropogenic global change, imperils biosphere intactness and integrity. Ecosystem services such as top-down regulation (or biological control; BC) are susceptible to loss of extinction-prone taxa at upper trophic levels and secondary 'support' species e.g., herbivores. Here, drawing upon curated open-access interaction data, we structurally analyze trophic networks centered on the fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and assess their robustness to species loss. Tri-partite networks link 80 BC organisms (invertebrate or microbial), 512 lepidopteran hosts and 1194 plants (including 147 cultivated crops) in the Neotropics. These comprise threatened herbaceous or woody plants and conservation flagships such as saturniid moths. Treating all interaction partners functionally equivalent, random herbivore loss exerts a respective 26 % or 108 % higher impact on top-down regulation in crop and non-crop settings than that of BC organisms (at 50 % loss). Equally, random loss of BC organisms affects herbivore regulation to a greater extent (13.8 % at 50 % loss) than herbivore loss mediates their preservation (11.4 %). Yet, under moderate biodiversity loss, (non-pest) herbivores prove highly susceptible to loss of BC organisms. Our topological approach spotlights how agriculturally-subsidized BC agents benefit vegetation restoration, while non-pest herbivores uphold biological control in on- and off-farm settings alike. Our work underlines how the on-farm usage of endemic biological control organisms can advance conservation, restoration, and agricultural sustainability imperatives. We discuss how integrative approaches and close interdisciplinary cooperation can spawn desirable outcomes for science, policy and practice.

Small microplastic ingestion by the calanoid Centropages furcatus in the Gulf of Thailand.

Microplastics could be ingested by many organisms, including zooplankton, involving bioaccumulation and biomagnification mechanisms a cross food webs. The information about microplastic ingestion by zooplankton keeps increasing worldwide. However, it is still limited for particle sizes under 300 µm (small microplastics, SMPs) and in areas such as Southeast Asia, which is considered one of the hotspots for plastic debris. This study aimed to characterize the size, shape, and polymer types of the SMPs ingested by the copepod Centropages furcatus in Si Chang Island (upper Gulf of Thailand). The study spans offshore and coastal waters, with data collected across wet, intermediate, and dry seasons. Using a semi-automated technique for micro-FTIR (Fourier-transform infrared) scanning spectroscopy for particle analysis, we found ingested SMPs in all samples. A total of 750 individuals of the calanoid Centropages furcatus were analyzed, finding 309 plastic particles and an average ingestion value of 0.41 ± 0.13 particles ind-1, one of the highest recorded values. All the particles were fragments, with a predominant size under 50 µm, and polymer types as Polypropylene (PP, 71 %), followed by Ethylene-Propylene-Diene-Monomer (EPDM, 16 %) and Polyethylene (PE, 7 %). Up to 470.2 particles m-3 were estimated to be retained by this calanoid species and potentially available for trophic transfer. The effect of rainfall on SMPs ingestion was inconclusive, with a non-significant observed tendency to higher ingestion values near the coastal area than offshore area, suggesting a decrease in particle exposure due to the runoff effect. Nevertheless, future studies should increase the frequency of surveys to arrive at better conclusions.

Analysis of long transients and detection of early warning signals of extinction in a class of predator-prey models exhibiting bistable behavior.

In this paper, we develop a method of analyzing long transient dynamics in a class of predator-prey models with two species of predators competing explicitly for their common prey, where the prey evolves on a faster timescale than the predators. In a parameter regime near a singular zero-Hopf bifurcation of the coexistence equilibrium state, we assume that the system under study exhibits bistability between a periodic attractor that bifurcates from the singular Hopf point and another attractor, which could be a periodic attractor or a point attractor, such that the invariant manifolds of the coexistence equilibrium point play central roles in organizing the dynamics. To find whether a solution that starts in a vicinity of the coexistence equilibrium approaches the periodic attractor or the other attractor, we reduce the equations to a suitable normal form, and examine the basin boundary near the singular Hopf point. A key component of our study includes an analysis of the long transient dynamics, characterized by their rapid oscillations with a slow variation in amplitude, by applying a moving average technique. We obtain a set of necessary and sufficient conditions on the initial values of a solution near the coexistence equilibrium to determine whether it lies in the basin of attraction of the periodic attractor. As a result of our analysis, we devise a method of identifying early warning signals, significantly in advance, of a future crisis that could lead to extinction of one of the predators. The analysis is applied to the predator-prey model considered in Sadhu (Discrete Contin Dyn Syst B 26:5251-5279, 2021) and we find that our theory is in good agreement with the numerical simulations carried out for this model.

Informing the Exposure Landscape: The Fate of Microplastics in a Large Pelagic In-Lake Mesocosm Experiment.

Understanding microplastic exposure and effects is critical to understanding risk. Here, we used large, in-lake closed-bottom mesocosms to investigate exposure and effects on pelagic freshwater ecosystems. This article provides details about the experimental design and results on the transport of microplastics and exposure to pelagic organisms. Our experiment included three polymers of microplastics (PE, PS, and PET) ranging in density and size. Nominal concentrations ranged from 0 to 29,240 microplastics per liter on a log scale. Mesocosms enclosed natural microbial, phytoplankton, and zooplankton communities and yellow perch (Perca flavescens). We quantified and characterized microplastics in the water column and in components of the food web (biofilm on the walls, zooplankton, and fish). The microplastics in the water stratified vertically according to size and density. After 10 weeks, about 1% of the microplastics added were in the water column, 0.4% attached to biofilm on the walls, 0.01% within zooplankton, and 0.0001% in fish. Visual observations suggest the remaining >98% were in a surface slick and on the bottom. Our study suggests organisms that feed at the surface and in the benthos are likely most at risk, and demonstrates the value of measuring exposure and transport to inform experimental designs and achieve target concentrations in different matrices within toxicity tests.