Evolution and genetic characterization of Seoul virus in wild rats Rattus norvegicus from an urban park in Lyon, France 2020-2022.

BACKGROUND: Seoul virus (SEOV) is an orthohantavirus primarily carried by rats. In humans, it may cause hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). Its incidence is likely underestimated and given the expansion of urban areas, a better knowledge of SEOV circulation in rat populations is called for. Beyond the need to improve human case detection, we need to deepen our comprehension of the ecological, epidemiological, and evolutionary processes involved in the transmission of SEOV. METHODOLOGY / PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We performed a comprehensive serological and molecular characterization of SEOV in Rattus norvegicus in a popular urban park within a large city (Lyon, France) to provide essential information to design surveillance strategies regarding SEOV. We sampled rats within the urban park of 'La Tête d'Or' in Lyon city from 2020 to 2022. We combined rat population genetics, immunofluorescence assays, SEOV high-throughput sequencing (S, M, and L segments), and phylogenetic analyses. We found low structuring of wild rat populations within Lyon city. Only one sampling site within the park (building created in 2021) showed high genetic differentiation and deserves further attention. We confirmed the circulation of SEOV in rats from the park with high seroprevalence (17.2%) and high genetic similarity with the strain previously described in 2011 in Lyon city. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This study confirms the continuous circulation of SEOV in a popular urban park where the risk for SEOV transmission to humans is present. Implementing a surveillance of this virus could provide an efficient early warning system and help prepare risk-based interventions. As we reveal high gene flow between rat populations from the park and the rest of the city, we advocate for SEOV surveillance to be conducted at the scale of the entire city.

Nephropathia Epidemica Caused by Puumala Virus in Bank Voles, Scania, Southern Sweden.

In 2018, a local case of nephropathia epidemica was reported in Scania, southern Sweden, more than 500 km south of the previously known presence of human hantavirus infections in Sweden. Another case emerged in the same area in 2020. To investigate the zoonotic origin of those cases, we trapped rodents in Ballingslöv, Norra Sandby, and Sörby in southern Sweden during 2020‒2021. We found Puumala virus (PUUV) in lung tissues from 9 of 74 Myodes glareolus bank voles by screening tissues using a hantavirus pan-large segment reverse transcription PCR. Genetic analysis revealed that the PUUV strains were distinct from those found in northern Sweden and Denmark and belonged to the Finnish PUUV lineage. Our findings suggest an introduction of PUUV from Finland or Karelia, causing the human PUUV infections in Scania. This discovery emphasizes the need to understand the evolution, cross-species transmission, and disease outcomes of this newly found PUUV variant.

Orthohantavirus infections in humans and rodents in the Yichun region, China, from 2016 to 2021.

BACKGROUND: Rodents are the predominant natural hosts of orthohantavirus and the source of human infection, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) caused by orthohantavirus is a severe public health problem in the Yichun region, Jiangxi Province, China. However, little information is known about the infection of orthohantavirus in humans and rodents, and the genetic characteristics of the epidemic orthohantavirus in the region. METHODS: The clinical data of HFRS cases in 2016-2021 was analyzed. Virus infection in rodents was analyzed by orthohantavirus antigen detection using immunofluorescent assay, and the species of orthohantaviruses in rodents and patients were identified by real-time RT-PCR and gene sequencing. The S and M segments of orthohantaviruses from rodents and patients were recovered and analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 1,573 HFRS cases were reported in the Yichun region from 2016 to 2021, including 11 death cases. HFRS cases peaked twice each year: in winter from November to January and early summer from May to June. Farmers constituted the predominant population suffering from HFRS. The orthohantavirus antigen was identified in five species of rodents: Apodemus agrarius (A. agrarius), Rattus norvegicus (R. norvegicus), Sorex araneus, Rattus losea (R. losea), and Niviventer confucianus (N. confucianus). The real-time RT-PCR test and genetic analysis results showed that Hantaan orthohantavirus (HTNV), Seoul orthohantavirus (SEOV), and Dabieshan orthohantavirus (DBSV) were circulated in the rodents. HTNV, SEOV, and DBSV from the rodents were distantly related to other known orthohantaviruses and belonged to novel genetic lineages. SEOV and HTNV were found in HFRS patients, but 97.8% (90/92) of the infections were caused by HTNV. Winter and early summer peaks were both caused by HTNV. The HTNV sequences recovered from HFRS cases were closely related to those from A. agrarius. CONCLUSIONS: In the Yichun region, the orthohantaviruses transmitted in rodents include HTNV, SEOV, and DBSV, which have obvious genetic characteristics and high genetic diversity. At the same time, this region is an HFRS mixed epidemic area dominated by HTNV, with two peaks every year, which deserves our high attention.

Incidence of Orthohantavirus infection in humans follows observed changes in rodent reservoirs, Hubei Province, China (1984-2010).

OBJECTIVE: Orthohantaviruses (genus Orthohantavirus, family Hantaviridae of order Bunyavirales) are rodent-borne viruses causing 2 human diseases: hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS), which are mainly prevalent in Eurasia and the Americas, respectively. We initiated this study to investigate and analyze the Orthohantaviruses infection in rodent reservoirs and humans in the Hubei Province of China from 1984 to 2010. SAMPLE: The study included 10,314 mouse and 43,753 human serum samples. PROCEDURES: In this study, we analyzed the incidence of Orthohantavirus infection in humans and observed changes in rodent reservoirs in Hubei Province. RESULTS: The results indicated that although the incidence of HFRS declined from the 1990s, the human inapparent infection did not decrease dramatically. Although elements of the disease ecology have changed over the study period, Apodemus agrarius and Rattus norvegicus remain the major species and a constituent ratio of Rattus norvegicus increased. Rodent population density fluctuated between 16.65% and 2.14%, and decreased quinquennially, showing an obvious downward trend in recent years. The average orthohantaviruses-carrying rate was 6.36%, of which the lowest rate was 2.92% from 2006 to 2010. The analysis of rodent species composition showed that Rattus norvegicus and Apodemus agrarius were the dominant species over time (68.6% [1984 to 1987] and 90.4% [2000 to 2011]), while the composition and variety of other species decreased. The density of rodents was closely related to the incidence of HFRS (r = 0.910, P = .032). CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Our long-term investigation demonstrated that the occurrence of HFRS is closely related to rodent demographic patterns. Therefore, rodent monitoring and rodent control measures for prevention against HFRS in Hubei are warranted.

Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling analysis of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome outbreaks in China using R-INLA.

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a category B infectious disease caused by Hantavirus infection, which can cause acute kidney injury and has a high mortality rate. At present, China is the country most severely afflicted by HFRS in the world, and it is critical to carry out efficient HFRS prevention and management in a scientific and accurate manner. The study used data on the incidence of HFRS in mainland China from 2015 to 2018, built a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal distribution model, and applied the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation algorithm to analyse the factors influencing the development of HFRS, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics, and the threshold exceedance locations. The results revealed that the woodland and grassland area (RR = 1.357, 95% CI: 1.005-1.791), economic level (RR = 1.299, 95% CI: 1.007-1.649), and traffic level (RR = 2.442, 95% CI: 1.825-3.199) were all significantly and positively associated with the development of HFRS, with traffic level having the strongest promoting effect. The seasonal cycle was obvious in time, with peaks in May-June and October-December each year, most notably in November. Spatially, there was a south-heavy north-light trend, with a high risk of incidence largely in places rich in mountain and forest vegetation, of which Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong, and Jiangxi provinces continuing to have a high incidence in recent years, and the evolution of the epidemic in Hubei and Hunan was becoming more serious. When the early warning threshold was set at 0.2, the detection impact was best, and Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hainan, and Tianjin were positioned near the critical point of the exceedance threshold with the highest risk of incidence. It is recommended that the relevant managers call for active vaccination of outdoor workers, such as those working in agriculture and construction sites, implement rat prevention and extermination before winter arrives, and warn high-risk and medium-high-risk areas to conduct early outbreak surveillance. Move the prevention and control gates forward based on the exceedance threshold for doing preventive and control detection and epidemic research and judgement work.

Emerging hantavirus infection in wild rodents captured in suburbs of Gwangju Metropolitan City, South Korea.

BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) caused by hantaviruses is a frequently reported acute hemorrhagic fever in South Korea. These viruses are transmitted by various rodent species such as Apodemus agrarius. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To investigate hantavirus infection and seroprevalence in rodents, wild rodents were captured from two districts in the suburbs of Gwangju Metropolitan City from January 2016 to December 2018. Nested reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) targeting the hantavirus-specific L segment and indirect immunofluorescence antibody (IFA) assay using Hantaan virus antigen slides were performed. A total of 585 wild rodents were captured-512 A. agrarius, 49 Crocidura lasiura, and 24 Myodes regulus. Nested RT-PCR was performed to examine the rate of hantavirus infection in wild rodents, and 1.88% (11/585) of all rodents, 1.17% (6/512) of A. agrarius, 6.12% (3/49) of C. lasiura, and 8.33% (2/24) of M. regulus tested positive. The nucleotide sequence analysis of the eleven PCR-positive products revealed that six PCR products showed over 85% sequence similarity with the Jeju virus, four showed over 99.7% similarity with the Hantaan virus, and one showed over 95.3% homology with the Imjin virus. Moreover, IgG antibodies against the Hantaan virus were detected in 6.15% (36/585) of all rodents, 6.8% (35/512) of A. agrarius, and 4.17% (1/24) of M. regulus. IgG antibodies were not detected in C. lasiura. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Hantaviruses were detected in all three wild rodent species of A. agrarius, C. lasiura, and M. regulus captured in the suburbs of Gwangju Metropolitan City, South Korea, and it was demonstrated that they were various strains of hantaviruses such as the Hantaan, Jeju, and Imjin viruses.

Puumala Orthohantavirus Infection Does Not Affect the Trapping Success of Its Reservoir Host.

Pathogens might affect behavior of infected reservoir hosts and hence their trappability, which could bias population estimates of pathogen prevalence. In this study, we used snap-trapping data on Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV)-infected (n = 1619) and noninfected (n = 6940) bank voles (Myodes glareolus) from five vole cycles, normally representing increase, peak, and decline phase, to evaluate if infection status affected trapping success. If PUUV infection, as previously suggested, increases activity and/or mobility, we would expect a higher proportion of infected than noninfected specimens in the first trapping night. However, the proportion of PUUV-infected voles did not differ across the three trapping nights. We conclude that PUUV infection did not affect trapping success, confirming snap trapping as an appropriate trapping method for studies on PUUV prevalence and likely other orthohantaviruses.

Cluster of human Puumala orthohantavirus infections due to indoor exposure?-An interdisciplinary outbreak investigation.

Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV) is the most important hantavirus species in Europe, causing the majority of human hantavirus disease cases. In central and western Europe, the occurrence of human infections is mainly driven by bank vole population dynamics influenced by beech mast. In Germany, hantavirus epidemic years are observed in 2- to 5-year intervals. Many of the human infections are recorded in summer and early autumn, coinciding with peaks in bank vole populations. Here, we describe a molecular epidemiological investigation in a small company with eight employees of whom five contracted hantavirus infections in late 2017. Standardized interviews with employees were conducted to assess the circumstances under which the disease cluster occurred, how the employees were exposed and which counteractive measures were taken. Initially, two employees were admitted to hospital and serologically diagnosed with hantavirus infection. Subsequently, further investigations were conducted. By means of a self-administered questionnaire, three additional symptomatic cases could be identified. The hospital patients' sera were investigated and revealed in one patient a partial PUUV L segment sequence, which was identical to PUUV sequences from several bank voles collected in close proximity to company buildings. This investigation highlights the importance of a One Health approach that combines efforts from human and veterinary medicine, ecology and public health to reveal the origin of hantavirus disease clusters.

Epidemiological study on the incidence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in five Western Balkan countries for a 10-year period: 2006-2015.

BACKGROUND: Large-scale epidemics of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) have been reported mostly in Asia and Europe, with around 100,000 people affected each year. In the Southeast Europe, Balkan region, HFRS is endemic disease with approximately 100 cases per year. Our aim was to describe epidemiological characteristics of HFRS in five Western Balkan (WB) countries and to describe correlation between HFRS incidence and major meteorological event that hit the area in May 2014. METHODS: National surveillance data of HFRS from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia obtained from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2015 were collected and analysed. RESULTS: In a 10-year period, a total of 1,065 HFRS patients were reported in five WB countries. Cumulative incidence rate ranged from 0.05 to 15.80 per 100.000 inhabitants (in North Macedonia and Montenegro respectively). Increasing number of HFRS cases was reported with a peak incidence in three specific years (2008, 2012, and 2014). Average incidence for the entire area was higher in males than females (5.63 and 1.90 per 100.000 inhabitants respectively). Summer was the season with the highest number of cases and an average incidence rate of 1.74/100.000 inhabitants across 10-year period. Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence was significantly increased (7.91/100.000 inhabitants) in 2014, when a few months earlier, severe floods affected several WB countries. A strong significant negative correlation (r = -.84, p < .01) between the monthly incidence of HFRS and the number of months after May's floods was demonstrated for the total area of WB. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate that the HFRS incidence had similar distribution (general, age, sex and seasonality) across majority of the included countries. Summer was the season with the highest recorded incidence. Common epidemic years were detected in all observed countries as well as a negative correlation between the monthly incidence of HFRS and the number of months after May's cyclone.

Orthohantaviruses infections in humans and rodents in Baoji, China.

In recent years, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) incidence has been becoming a severe public health problem again due to its significant increase in Shaanxi Province, China. Baoji, located in the Guanzhong Plain in the central part of Shaanxi Province, has been severely affected by HFRS since its first emergence in 1955. To better understand the epidemiology of orthohantaviruses infection in humans and the causative agents carried by the rodents, the long-term incidence patterns were analyzed and a molecular epidemiological investigation of orthohantaviruses infection in humans and rodents was performed. During 1984-2019, 13,042 HFRS cases were registered in Baoji, including 275 death cases. Except the first high prevalence of HFRS in 1988-1993, another two epidemic peaks were observed in 1998-2003 and 2012, respectively, although vaccination project was started since 1996. During the same period, HFRS cases in Baoji mainly were recorded in winter suggesting they may be caused by Hantaan orthohantavirus (HTNV), while a small peak of HFRS was also found in summer with unknown reason. Nucleotide identity and phylogenetic analyses demonstrated that a novel clade of HTNV sequences recovered from HFRS cases were closely related to those from rodents, including species close contact with humans, suggesting a direct viral transmission from rodents to humans and the important role in the HTNV transmission the nontraditional rodent hosts may play. Moreover, two distant related Dabieshan orthohantavirus (DBSV) lineages were also identified in Niviventer niviventer in this area demonstrating its considerable genetic diversity. Our data indicated that continual spillover of HTNV from rodents to humans, contributing to the high prevalence of HFRS in humans in Baoji.

Seoul Orthohantavirus in Wild Black Rats, Senegal, 2012-2013.

Hantaviruses cause hemorrhagic fever in humans worldwide. However, few hantavirus surveillance campaigns occur in Africa. We detected Seoul orthohantavirus in black rats in Senegal, although we did not find serologic evidence of this disease in humans. These findings highlight the need for increased surveillance of hantaviruses in this region.

Phylogeography of Puumala orthohantavirus in Europe.

Puumala virus is an RNA virus hosted by the bank vole (Myodes glareolus) and is today present in most European countries. Whilst it is generally accepted that hantaviruses have been tightly co-evolving with their hosts, Puumala virus (PUUV) evolutionary history is still controversial and so far has not been studied at the whole European level. This study attempts to reconstruct the phylogeographical spread of modern PUUV throughout Europe during the last postglacial period in the light of an upgraded dataset of complete PUUV small (S) segment sequences and by using most recent computational approaches. Taking advantage of the knowledge on the past migrations of its host, we identified at least three potential independent dispersal routes of PUUV during postglacial recolonization of Europe by the bank vole. From the Alpe-Adrian region (Balkan, Austria, and Hungary) to Western European countries (Germany, France, Belgium, and Netherland), and South Scandinavia. From the vicinity of Carpathian Mountains to the Baltic countries and to Poland, Russia, and Finland. The dissemination towards Denmark and North Scandinavia is more hypothetical and probably involved several independent streams from south and north Fennoscandia.

Analysis of the integrin ß3 receptor for pathogenic orthohantaviruses in rodent host species.

Host reservoir specificity of pathogens is complex and may depend on receptor variability. For pathogenic orthohantaviruses, integrin ß3 had been previously identified as entry receptor and the presence of aspartic acid residue at position 39 (D39) in human integrin ß3 was described to be a prerequisite for infection of primate cells with Hantaan virus (HTNV). However, the role of integrin ß3 in orthohantavirus infection of host animals is not completely understood. Therefore, we analyzed the nucleotide sequence of the integrin ß3 gene of Myodes glareolus and Apodemus agrarius, the hosts of Puumala virus (PUUV) and HTNV, respectively. Sequence analysis in tissue samples demonstrated that the amino acid residue D39 is not present in integrin ß3 of these natural orthohantavirus hosts. Furthermore, we analyzed the transcription and protein expression levels of integrin ß3 in the renal cell line BVK168 generated from the PUUV host, bank vole. Transcription level of integrin ß3 was 100-fold lower in BVK168 cells than in Vero E6 cells and integrin ß3 expression was not detectable in BVK168 cells. However, despite the absence of amino acid residue D39 and no detectable integrin ß3 expression, BVK168 cells are susceptible to infection with both PUUV and HTNV. These results indicate that the mechanism of orthohantaviral entry in rodent species does not correspond to the requirements that were described for the entry in primate cells in vitro.

Detection of Seoul virus in wild brown rats (Rattus norvegicus) from pig farms in Northern England.

INTRODUCTION: Hantaviruses are maintained by mammalian hosts, such as rodents, and are shed in their excretions. Clinical disease can occur in humans from spillover infection. Brown rats (Rattus norvegicus) are the globally distributed reservoir host of Seoul virus (SEOV). Human cases of SEOV-associated haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (SEOV-HFRS)have been reported in Great Britain (GB) since 1977. METHODS: Brown rats (n=68) were trapped from a variety of peridomestic locations, with a focus on pig farms. Kidney and lung tissues were tested for viral RNA using a pan-hantavirus RT-PCR assay followed by Sanger sequencing and analysis. RESULTS: SEOV RNA was detected in 19 per cent (13/68, 95% CI 11 to 30) of rats and all sequences fell within SEOV lineage 9. Twelve sequences were highly similar to each other and to the previously reported GB Humber strain of SEOV (98 per cent). One rat SEOV sequence was more distant. The SEOV prevalence in rats from pig farms was significantly greater (p=0.047) than other sites sampled. No significant sex or age differences were observed among positive and negative rats. DISCUSSION: The results from this study suggest that SEOV could be widespread in wild rats in GB and therefore pose a potential risk to public health.

Spatial dynamics of a zoonotic orthohantavirus disease through heterogenous data on rodents, rodent infections, and human disease.

Zoonotic diseases are challenging to study from the ecological point of view as, broadly speaking, datasets tend to be either detailed on a small spatial extent, or coarse on a large spatial extent. Also, there are many ways to assess zoonotic disease transmission systems, from pathogens to hosts to humans. We explore the complementarity of datasets considering the pathogen in its host, the host and human cases in the context of Puumala orthohantavirus infection in Germany. We selected relevant environmental predictors using a conceptual framework based on resource-based habitats. This framework assesses the functions, and associated environmental resources of the pathogen and associated host. A resource-based habitat framework supports variable selection and result interpretation. Multiplying 'keyholes' to view a zoonotic disease transmission system is valuable, but requires a strong conceptual framework to select and interpret environmental explanatory variables. This study highlights the usefulness of a structured, ecology-based approach to study drivers of zoonotic diseases at the level of virus, host, and human - not only for PUUV but also for other zoonotic pathogens. Our results show that human disease cases are best explained by a combination of variables related to zoonotic pathogen circulation and human exposure.

First insights into Puumala orthohantavirus circulation in a rodent population in Alsace, France.

In-depth knowledge on the mechanisms that maintain infection by a zoonotic pathogen in an animal reservoir is the key to predicting and preventing transmission to humans. The Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV), the most prevalent orthohantavirus in Western Europe, causes a mild form of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in humans. In France, this endemic illness affects the north-eastern part of the country. We conducted a 4-year capture-mark-recapture study in a bank vole population, combined with molecular analyses, to explore the epidemiological situation of PUUV in Alsace, a French region where human cases have occurred, but for which no studies have been conducted on this reservoir host. PUUV-infected bank voles were detected in the 2 years that showed high bank vole density with a prevalence of 4%. The individual PUUV sequences identified in this study were similar from year to year and similar to other French sequences. On a very small spatial scale, the distribution of seropositive bank voles was very heterogeneous in time and space. The short distances travelled on average by bank voles resulted in spatial clusters of seropositive rodents, which spread only very gradually throughout the year.

Outbreak of Seoul Virus Among Rats and Rat Owners - United States and Canada, 2017.

In December 2016, the Wisconsin Department of Health Services (WDHS) notified CDC of a patient hospitalized with fever, leukopenia, elevated transaminases, and proteinuria. The patient owned and operated an in-home rattery, or rat-breeding facility, with approximately 100 Norway rats, primarily bred as pets. A family member developed similar symptoms 4 weeks later, but was not hospitalized. Because both patients were known to have rodent contact, they were tested for hantavirus infections. In January 2017, CDC confirmed recent, acute Seoul virus infection in both patients. An investigation was conducted to identify additional human and rat infections and prevent further transmission. Ultimately, the investigation identified 31 facilities in 11 states with human and/or rat Seoul virus infections; six facilities also reported exchanging rats with Canadian ratteries. Testing of serum samples from 183 persons in the United States and Canada identified 24 (13.1%) with Seoul virus antibodies; three (12.5%) were hospitalized and no deaths occurred. This investigation, including cases described in a previously published report from Tennessee (1), identified the first known transmission of Seoul virus from pet rats to humans in the United States and Canada. Pet rat owners should practice safe rodent handling to prevent Seoul virus infection (2).

High prevalence of Seoul hantavirus in a breeding colony of pet rats.

As part of further investigations into three linked haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) cases in Wales and England, 21 rats from a breeding colony in Cherwell, and three rats from a household in Cheltenham were screened for hantavirus. Hantavirus RNA was detected in either the lungs and/or kidney of 17/21 (81%) of the Cherwell rats tested, higher than previously detected by blood testing alone (7/21, 33%), and in the kidneys of all three Cheltenham rats. The partial L gene sequences obtained from 10 of the Cherwell rats and the three Cheltenham rats were identical to each other and the previously reported UK Cherwell strain. Seoul hantavirus (SEOV) RNA was detected in the heart, kidney, lung, salivary gland and spleen (but not in the liver) of an individual rat from the Cherwell colony suspected of being the source of SEOV. Serum from 20/20 of the Cherwell rats and two associated HFRS cases had high levels of SEOV-specific antibodies (by virus neutralisation). The high prevalence of SEOV in both sites and the moderately severe disease in the pet rat owners suggest that SEOV in pet rats poses a greater public health risk than previously considered.

Spatial prediction and validation of zoonotic hazard through micro-habitat properties: where does Puumala hantavirus hole - up?

BACKGROUND: To predict the risk of infectious diseases originating in wildlife, it is important to identify habitats that allow the co-occurrence of pathogens and their hosts. Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is a directly-transmitted RNA virus that causes hemorrhagic fever in humans, and is carried and transmitted by the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). In northern Sweden, bank voles undergo 3-4 year population cycles, during which their spatial distribution varies greatly. METHODS: We used boosted regression trees; a technique inspired by machine learning, on a 10 - year time-series (fall 2003-2013) to develop a spatial predictive model assessing seasonal PUUV hazard using micro-habitat variables in a landscape heavily modified by forestry. We validated the models in an independent study area approx. 200 km away by predicting seasonal presence of infected bank voles in a five-year-period (2007-2010 and 2015). RESULTS: The distribution of PUUV-infected voles varied seasonally and inter-annually. In spring, micro-habitat variables related to cover and food availability in forests predicted both bank vole and infected bank vole presence. In fall, the presence of PUUV-infected voles was generally restricted to spruce forests where cover was abundant, despite the broad landscape distribution of bank voles in general. We hypothesize that the discrepancy in distribution between infected and uninfected hosts in fall, was related to higher survival of PUUV and/or PUUV-infected voles in the environment, especially where cover is plentiful. CONCLUSIONS: Moist and mesic old spruce forests, with abundant cover such as large holes and bilberry shrubs, also providing food, were most likely to harbor infected bank voles. The models developed using long-term and spatially extensive data can be extrapolated to other areas in northern Fennoscandia. To predict the hazard of directly transmitted zoonoses in areas with unknown risk status, models based on micro-habitat variables and developed through machine learning techniques in well-studied systems, could be used.