Understanding racial disparities in severe maternal morbidity using Bayesian network analysis.

Previous studies have evaluated the marginal effect of various factors on the risk of severe maternal morbidity (SMM) using regression approaches. We add to this literature by utilizing a Bayesian network (BN) approach to understand the joint effects of clinical, demographic, and area-level factors. We conducted a retrospective observational study using linked birth certificate and insurance claims data from the Arkansas All-Payer Claims Database (APCD), for the years 2013 through 2017. We used various learning algorithms and measures of arc strength to choose the most robust network structure. We then performed various conditional probabilistic queries using Monte Carlo simulation to understand disparities in SMM. We found that anemia and hypertensive disorder of pregnancy may be important clinical comorbidities to target in order to reduce SMM overall as well as racial disparities in SMM.

Changes in Direct Medical Cost and Medications for Managing Diabetes in Beijing, China, 2016 to 2018: Electronic Insurance Data Analysis.

PURPOSE: Although the cost and complexity of managing diabetes is increasing around the world, placing greater burden on patients and their families, the cost of drug regimens prescribed to Chinese patients has not been evaluated. This study was conducted to evaluate the temporal changes in the costs and drugs used for people with diabetes. METHODS: Patients enrolled in Beijing Medical Insurance with outpatient medical records from 2016 through 2018 were included in this study. The outcomes of interest were: (1) the number of outpatient medications, (2) the number of comorbidities diagnosed, (3) the estimated annual cost of the outpatient drug regimen, (4) the drug therapy strategies used for diabetic patients, and (5) the most commonly prescribed classes of drugs. RESULTS: Over the 3-year period, there was a significant decrease (9.0%, P <.001) in the average number of diabetes medications used. Both antiglycemic and non-antiglycemic drug use decreased by 3.6% and 12.9%, respectively. Similarly, for estimated annual costs of medication, an 18.4% (P <.05) decrease was observed, with a gradual decreased from ¥6,868 ($1,059) in 2016 to ¥5,605 ($865) in 2018. CONCLUSION: This is the first large-scale cost analysis of the medical management of diabetes since the implementation of medical insurance in China. Despite the increasing availability of newer, more expensive diabetes drugs, there was a significant reduction in the number of diabetes medications used, that may be due to a more rational approach to optimizing metabolic targets.

Medication Use in the Management of Comorbidities Among Individuals With Autism Spectrum Disorder From a Large Nationwide Insurance Database.

Importance: Although there is no pharmacological treatment for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) itself, behavioral and pharmacological therapies have been used to address its symptoms and common comorbidities. A better understanding of the medications used to manage comorbid conditions in this growing population is critical; however, most previous efforts have been limited in size, duration, and lack of broad representation. Objective: To use a nationally representative database to uncover trends in the prevalence of co-occurring conditions and medication use in the management of symptoms and comorbidities over time among US individuals with ASD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective, population-based cohort study mined a nationwide, managed health plan claims database containing more than 86 million unique members. Data from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2019, were used to analyze prescription frequency and diagnoses of comorbidities. A total of 26 722 individuals with ASD who had been prescribed at least 1 of 24 medications most commonly prescribed to treat ASD symptoms or comorbidities during the 6-year study period were included in the analysis. Exposures: Diagnosis codes for ASD based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, and International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision. Main Outcomes and Measures: Quantitative estimates of prescription frequency for the 24 most commonly prescribed medications among the study cohort and the most common comorbidities associated with each medication in this population. Results: Among the 26 722 individuals with ASD included in the analysis (77.7% male; mean [SD] age, 14.45 [9.40] years), polypharmacy was common, ranging from 28.6% to 31.5%. Individuals' prescription regimens changed frequently within medication classes, rather than between classes. The prescription frequency of a specific medication varied considerably, depending on the coexisting diagnosis of a given comorbidity. Of the 24 medications assessed, 15 were associated with at least a 15% prevalence of a mood disorder, and 11 were associated with at least a 15% prevalence of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. For patients taking antipsychotics, the 2 most common comorbidities were combined type attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (11.6%-17.8%) and anxiety disorder (13.1%-30.1%). Conclusions and Relevance: This study demonstrated considerable variability and transiency in the use of prescription medications by US clinicians to manage symptoms and comorbidities associated with ASD. These findings support the importance of early and ongoing surveillance of patients with ASD and co-occurring conditions and offer clinicians insight on the targeted therapies most commonly used to manage co-occurring conditions. Future research and policy efforts are critical to assess the extent to which pharmacological management of comorbidities affects quality of life and functioning in patients with ASD while continuing to optimize clinical guidelines, to ensure effective care for this growing population.

Unemployment Insurance and Mortality Among the Long-Term Unemployed: A Population-Based Matched-Cohort Study.

Unemployment insurance is hypothesized to play an important role in mitigating the adverse health consequences of job loss. In this prospective cohort study, we examined whether receiving unemployment benefits is associated with lower mortality among the long-term unemployed. Census records from the 2006 Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort (n = 2,105,595) were linked to mortality data from 2006-2016. Flexible parametric survival analysis and propensity score matching were used to model time-varying relationships between long-term unemployment (≥20 weeks), unemployment-benefit recipiency, and all-cause mortality. Mortality was consistently lower among unemployed individuals who reported receiving unemployment benefits, relative to matched nonrecipients. For example, mortality at 2 years of follow-up was 18% lower (95% confidence interval (CI): 9, 26) among men receiving benefits and 30% lower (95% CI: 18, 40) among women receiving benefits. After 10 years of follow-up, unemployment-benefit recipiency was associated with 890 (95% CI: 560, 1,230) fewer deaths per 100,000 men and 1,070 (95% CI: 810, 1,320) fewer deaths per 100,000 women. Our findings indicate that receiving unemployment benefits is associated with lower mortality among the long-term unemployed. Expanding access to unemployment insurance may improve population health and reduce health inequalities associated with job loss.

Strong and sustainable primary healthcare is associated with a lower risk of hospitalization in high risk patients.

In 2004, Germany introduced a program based on voluntary contracting to strengthen the role of general practice care in the healthcare system. Key components include structured management of chronic diseases, coordinated access to secondary care, data-driven quality improvement, computerized clinical decision-support, and capitation-based reimbursement. Our aim was to determine the long-term effects of this program on the risk of hospitalization of specific categories of high-risk patients. Based on insurance claims data, we conducted a longitudinal observational study from 2011 to 2018 in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany. Patients were assigned to one or more of four open cohorts (in 2011, elderly, n = 575,363; diabetes mellitus, n = 163,709; chronic heart failure, n = 82,513; coronary heart disease, n = 125,758). Adjusted for key patient characteristics, logistic regression models were used to compare the hospitalization risk of the enrolled patients (intervention group) with patients receiving usual primary care (control group). At the start of the study and throughout long-term follow-up, enrolled patients in the four cohorts had a lower risk of all-cause hospitalization and ambulatory, care-sensitive hospitalization. Among patients with chronic heart failure and coronary heart disease, the program was associated with significantly reduced risk of cardiovascular-related hospitalizations across the eight observed years. The effect of the program also increased over time. Over the longer term, the results indicate that strengthening primary care could be associated with a substantial reduction in hospital utilization among high-risk patients.

The Relationship Between Fall Risk and Hospital-Based Therapy Utilization Is Moderated by Demographic Characteristics and Insurance Type.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether indicators of patient need (comorbidity burden, fall risk) predict acute care rehabilitation utilization, and whether this relation varies across patient characteristics (ie, demographic characteristics, insurance type). DESIGN: Secondary analysis of electronic health records data. SETTING: Five acute care hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Adults (N=110,209) admitted to 5 regional hospitals between 2014 and 2018. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Occupational therapy (OT) and physical therapy (PT) utilization. Logistic regression models determined whether indicators of patient need predicted OT and PT utilization. Interactions between indicators of need and both demographic factors (eg, minority status, presence of significant other) and insurance type were included to investigate whether the relation between patient need and therapy access varied across patient characteristics. RESULTS: Greater comorbidity burden was associated with a higher likelihood of receiving OT and PT. Relative to those with low fall risk, those with moderate and high fall risk were more likely to receive OT and PT. The relation between fall risk and therapy utilization differed across patient characteristics. Among patients with higher levels of fall risk, those with a significant other were less likely to receive OT and PT; significant other status did not explain therapy utilization among patients with low fall risk. Among those with high fall risk, patients with VA insurance and minority patients were more likely to receive PT than those with private insurance and nonminority patients, respectively. Insurance type and minority status did not appear to explain PT utilization among those with lower fall risk. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with greater comorbidity burden and fall risk were more likely to receive acute care rehabilitation. However, the relation between fall risk and utilization was moderated by insurance type, having a significant other, and race/ethnicity. Understanding the implications of these utilization patterns requires further research.

On Modeling the Earthquake Insurance Data via a New Member of the T-X Family.

Heavy-tailed distributions play an important role in modeling data in actuarial and financial sciences. In this article, a new method is suggested to define new distributions suitable for modeling data with a heavy right tail. The proposed method may be named as the Z-family of distributions. For illustrative purposes, a special submodel of the proposed family, called the Z-Weibull distribution, is considered in detail to model data with a heavy right tail. The method of maximum likelihood estimation is adopted to estimate the model parameters. A brief Monte Carlo simulation study for evaluating the maximum likelihood estimators is done. Furthermore, some actuarial measures such as value at risk and tail value at risk are calculated. A simulation study based on these actuarial measures is also done. An application of the Z-Weibull model to the earthquake insurance data is presented. Based on the analyses, we observed that the proposed distribution can be used quite effectively in modeling heavy-tailed data in insurance sciences and other related fields. Finally, Bayesian analysis and performance of Gibbs sampling for the earthquake data have also been carried out.

Behavioral weather insurance: Applying cumulative prospect theory to agricultural insurance design under narrow framing.

Experience across many countries shows that, without large premium subsidies, crop insurance uptake rates are generally low. In this article, we propose to use the cumulative prospect theory to design weather insurance products for situations in which farmers frame insurance narrowly as a stand-alone investment. To this end, we introduce what we call "behavioral weather insurance" whereby insurance contract parameters are adjusted to correspond more closely with farmers' preferences. Depending on farmers' preferences, we find that a stochastic multiyear premium increases the prospect value of weather insurance, while a zero deductible design does not. We suggest that insurance contracts should be tailored precisely to serve farmers' needs. This offers potential benefits for both the insurer and the insured.

Will an incentive-compatible indemnity policy please stand up? Livestock producer willingness to self-protect.

This study evaluates the role of private market signals and conditional indemnity policies in livestock producer willingness to self-protect against disease and invest more in biosecurity. Our focus on Tier 1 swine diseases and U.S. hog producer decision-making is timely and informative for a multitude of current disease discussions. We find biosecurity effort adjusts to economic incentives in private, livestock markets and public, indemnity policies.

The Rise in Pediatric Obesity-Related Conditions and Costs in Public Insurance Programs: Evidence from Alabama.

Background: The increase in pediatric obesity rates is well documented. The extent of corresponding increases in diagnoses of obesity-related conditions (Ob-Cs) and associated medical costs for children in public insurance programs is unknown. Methods: Retrospective claims data linked to enrollees' demographic data for Alabama's Children's Health Insurance Program (ALL Kids) 1999-2015 were used. Multivariate linear probability models were used to estimate the likelihood of having any Ob-C diagnoses. Two-part models for inpatient, outpatient, emergency department (ED), and overall costs were estimated. Results: The proportion of enrollees with Ob-C diagnoses almost doubled from 1.3% to 2.5%. The likelihood of diagnoses increased over time (0.0994 percentage points per year, p < 0.001). Statistically higher rates of increase were seen for minority and lowest-income enrollees and for those getting preventive well visits. Costs for those with Ob-Cs increased relative to those without over time, particularly inpatient and outpatient costs. Conclusions: Prevalence of Ob-C diagnoses and costs have increased substantially. This may partly be because of underdiagnoses/underreporting in the past. However, evidence suggests that underdiagnoses are still a major issue.

TeamMate: a longitudinal study of New Zealand working farm dogs. I. Methods, population characteristics and health on enrolment.

BACKGROUND: Working farm dogs are invaluable on New Zealand sheep and beef farms. To date no study describing farm dog population and health has included information about incidence of illness and injury, or risk factors affecting health and career duration. This paper describes the methodology and initial results from TeamMate, a longitudinal study that was designed to address this gap. We describe the study population, husbandry practices, and prevalence of clinical abnormalities on enrolment. METHODS: Data about the farms, owners, husbandry practices and dogs were collected on farm at approximately 6-month intervals. All dogs over 18 months old and in full work were enrolled. Dogs were given physical examinations by veterinarians. On examination all abnormalities were noted, regardless of clinical significance. RESULTS: Six hundred forty-one working farm dogs and 126 owners were enrolled from the South Island of New Zealand. Forty-nine percent of dogs were Heading dogs (314 of 641) and 48% Huntaways (308 of 641). Median age of dogs was 4 years (range 1.5-14) and median body condition score (BCS) was four on a 9-point scale (interquartile range (IQR) 3-5). Fifty-four percent of dogs were male (345 of 641), and 6% (41 of 641) were neutered. Eighty-one percent of owners (102 of 126) fed dogs commercial biscuits and meat sourced on farm. Forty-four percent of dogs (279 of 641) had bedding in their kennel, 14% (55 of 393) had insulated kennels, 69% (442 of 641) had been vaccinated and 33% (213 of 641) were insured. Clinical abnormalities were found in 74% of dogs (475 of 641). Common abnormalities involved the musculoskeletal system (43%, 273 of 641), skin (including scars and callouses; 42%, 272 of 641), and oral cavity (including worn and broken teeth; 35%, 227 of 641). CONCLUSIONS: Our results expand on those from previous surveys and indicate that musculoskeletal illness and injury, and skin trauma are the most commonly seen clinical abnormalities in working farm dogs. These results will provide a baseline for investigation of incidence and risk factors for illness, injury, retirement and death in New Zealand working farm dogs.

Why Do Informal Sector Workers Not Pay the Premium Regularly? Evidence from the National Health Insurance System in Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: The challenges of universal health coverage (UHC) in developing countries with a significant proportion of the labor force that works in the informal sector include administrative difficulties in recruiting, registering and collecting regular contributions in a cost-effective way. As most developing countries have a limited fiscal space to support the program in the long run, the fiscal sustainability of UHC, such as that in Indonesia, relies heavily on the contributions of its members. The failure of a large proportion of voluntary enrollees/self-enrolled members/informal sector workers (Peserta Mandiri/Pekerja Bukan Penerima Upah [PBPU] members) to pay their premiums may lead to the National Health Insurance System (NHIS) in Indonesia being unable to effectively deliver its services. OBJECTIVE: This study aims at exploring the important factors that affect the compliance behavior of informal sector workers (PBPU members) in regularly paying their insurance premium. This analysis may be a basis for designing effective measures to encourage payment sustainability in informal sector workers in the NHIS. METHOD: This study utilizes the survey data collected from three regional offices of the Indonesian Social Security Agency for Health (SSAH), which cover approximately 1210 PBPU members, to understand the relationship between members' characteristics and their compliance behavior regarding the premium payment. We applied an econometric analysis of a logit regression to statistically estimate which factors most affect their compliance behavior in paying the insurance premium. RESULTS: This study reveals that almost 28% of PBPU members do not pay their insurance premiums in a sustainable way. Our logistic regression statistically confirms that the number of household members, financial hardship, membership in other social protection arrangements, and the utilization of health services are negatively correlated with the compliance rate of informal sector workers in paying their insurance premium. For instance, people who experience financial hardship tend to have a 7.7 percentage point lower probability of routinely paying the premium. In contrast, households that work in agricultural sectors and have income stability, the cost of inpatient care incurred before joining the NHIS, a comprehensive knowledge of the SSAH's services, and the availability of health professionals are all positively correlated with regular premium payment. CONCLUSION: Although there is no single policy that can ensure that informal sector workers (PBPU members) regularly pay their premiums, this study recommends some policy interventions, including (1) flexibility in applying for a government subsidy for premiums (Penerima Bantuan Iuran [PBI]), especially for people who have financial hardship; (2) an intensive promotion of insurance literacy; (3) expanding the quantity and quality of healthcare services; and (4) tailor-made policies for ensuring the sustainability of premium payments for each regional division.

Individual vs household: How do different calculation patterns of catastrophic health expenditure matter? New evidence from China's critical illness insurance programme.

Reducing the incidence and severity of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) has been considered to be one of the most fundamental goals of the global health care financing system. China, the second largest economy and the most populous country in the world, established a critical illness insurance (CII) programme in 2012 in an effort to protect Chinese residents from CHE shocks. This paper attempts to address whether the different calculation patterns (namely, individuals vs household) of CHE matter under China's CII programme. We compare two CII models built with the World Health Organization's (WHO's) standard and the Chinese standard. Exploiting the latest China family panel studies (CFPS) dataset, we demonstrate that using household as the calculation pattern is more effective in alleviating CHE under a tight premium budget, which is consistent with the international view. This finding raises concerns about the appropriate calculation pattern of CHE in policy making.

Unexplained periods of higher deaths contribute to marginal changes in health care demand and health insurance costs: International perspectives.

Sudden and unexplained increases in hospital medical admissions and population total deaths have been characterized in the United Kingdom. These sudden increases appear to endure for around 1 to 3 years before they abate. This study demonstrates that the sudden increases in deaths also occur in 125 countries and occur at subnational geographies. The magnitude of the sudden increase diminishes as a power law function up to around 10 000 deaths. Above 10 000 deaths, there is only a small decline with increasing size (deaths). At around 10 000 deaths, a 10% maximum sudden increase applies across many countries or subnational regions. The nearness to death effect, where around half of a person's lifetime hospital admissions occurs in the last 6 months of life, results in higher associated increases in medical admissions. This paper confirms that the use of calendar year data can be misleading. Periods of unexplained higher deaths appear to occur in bursts across multiple countries and appear to show spatial spread within the neighbourhoods which constitute the whole country.

Post-Adversities Recovery and Profitability: The Case of Italian Farmers.

Insurance represents one of the main instruments, together with other risk management mechanisms, to face the adverse effects produced by natural calamity that, despite their growing intensity and the enormous costs, are still perceived as "exceptional". Risk management is an important part of farming, and it is a concern for those governments which aim at achieving their agricultural policy targets. In this context, crop insurance can also represent a financial mitigation tool for farmers to face climate change consequences. This study is focused on the Italian case analyzing the evolution of public support and its effect on risk management policy in agriculture. Our research, based on panel data regressions, provides two different levels of analysis. The first one evaluates how the reimbursed value issued by insurance companies in favor of agricultural firms, as recovery from natural adversities, affects farmers' profitability. The second one evaluates how the reimbursed value is used in farm management. The results of the analysis demonstrating the significance of insurance variables and their positive effect on the profitability of the farms, represent a strong advance in the farm risk management field.

Helmet use among motorcycle accident victims in the north-east region of Jamaica.

Currently in Jamaica, motorcyclists account for the largest group of fatalities among all road users. Between 2016 and 2018, a cross sectional study was conducted at the Saint Ann's Bay Regional Hospital involving 155 participants. There were 98.7% males, ages ranged from 14-64 years and more than two thirds of the motorcyclists were under 40 years. Only 29.4% wore helmets, and of those motorcyclists, 52.8% indicated they were only riding for a short distance. Increasing age correlated with increased helmet compliance. Persons with motorcycles greater than 150 cubic centimetres were also more likely to wear a helmet. Interventions to promote increased helmet compliance should take these factors into account in conjunction with enhancing law enforcement.

How the network properties of shareholders vary with investor type and country.

We construct two examples of shareholder networks in which shareholders are connected if they have shares in the same company. We do this for the shareholders in Turkish companies and we compare this against the network formed from the shareholdings in Dutch companies. We analyse the properties of these two networks in terms of the different types of shareholder. We create a suitable randomised version of these networks to enable us to find significant features in our networks. For that we find the roles played by different types of shareholder in these networks, and also show how these roles differ in the two countries we study.

Competition and health plan quality in the Medicare Advantage market.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between insurer market structure, health plan quality, and health insurance premiums in the Medicare Advantage (MA) program. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Administrative data files from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, along with other secondary data sources. STUDY DESIGN: Trends in MA market concentration from 2008 to 2017 are presented, alongside logistic and linear regression models examining MA plan quality and premiums as a function of insurer market structure for 2011. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Data are publicly available. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: MA plans that tend to operate in more concentrated MA markets have a higher predicted probability of receiving a high-quality health plan rating. Operating in more concentrated MA markets was also found to be associated with higher premiums. Among plans that tend to operate in very concentrated MA markets, high-quality MA plans were associated with premiums as much as two times higher than premiums associated with lower-quality plans. CONCLUSIONS: Any policies directed at enhancing insurer competition should consider implications for health plan quality, which may be very different than the implications for enrollee premiums.

Impacts of shifting responsibility for high-cost individuals on Health Insurance Exchange plan premiums and cost-sharing provisions.

Insurance companies can respond to increases in expected per-capita healthcare expenditures by adjusting premiums, cost-sharing requirements, and/or plan generosity. We use a Difference-in-Difference model with Plan-level Fixed Effects to estimate the impacts of increases in expected expenditures generated by closure of state-operated High Risk Pools (HRPs). For Silver plans, we find that issuers responded to HRP closures by increasing both premiums and deductibles, and by increasing the ratios of premiums to deductibles. This adjustment to the structure of plan prices is consistent with the hypothesis that issuers will be reluctant to adjust deductibles, because consumers tend to overweight changes in deductibles over changes in premiums. The increase in the ratio of premiums to deductibles indicates that the increase in expected expenditures triggered an increase in the share of total risk-pool healthcare expenditures paid by low healthcare utilizers, and a decrease in the share paid by high utilizers.