RESUMEN
CONTEXT: Health plan disenrollment may disrupt chronic or preventive care for patients prescribed long-term opioid therapy (LTOT). PURPOSE: To assess whether overdose events in patients prescribed LTOT are associated with subsequent health plan disenrollment. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING AND DATASET: Data from the Optum Labs Data Warehouse which includes de-identified medical and pharmacy claims and enrollment records for commercial and Medicare Advantage enrollees. The database contains longitudinal health information on patients, representing a mixture of ages and geographical regions across the United States. PATIENTS: Adults prescribed stable opioid therapy (≥10 morphine milligram equivalents/day) for a 6-month baseline period prior to an index opioid prescription from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2018. MAIN MEASURES: Health plan disenrollment during follow-up. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 404,151 patients who were followed up after 800,250 baseline periods of stable opioid dosing. During a mean follow-up of 9.1 months, unadjusted disenrollment rates among primary commercial beneficiaries and Medicare Advantage enrollees were 37.2 and 13.9 per 100 person-years, respectively. Incident overdoses were associated with subsequent health plan disenrollment with a statistically significantly stronger association among primary commercial insurance beneficiaries [adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) 1.48 (95% CI: 1.33-1.64)] as compared to Medicare Advantage enrollees [aIRR 1.15 (95% CI: 1.07-1.23)]. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients prescribed long-term opioids, overdose events were strongly associated with subsequent health plan disenrollment, especially among primary commercial insurance beneficiaries. These findings raise concerns about the social consequences of overdose, including potential health insurance loss, which may limit patient access to care at a time of heightened vulnerability.
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Analgésicos Opioides , Sobredosis de Droga , Humanos , Masculino , Estudios Retrospectivos , Femenino , Analgésicos Opioides/uso terapéutico , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Anciano , Sobredosis de Droga/epidemiología , Adulto , Estudios de Cohortes , Seguro de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Medicare Part C/tendencias , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
This Viewpoint discusses the proliferation of Medicare Advantage plans targeting specific groups of individuals and whether these plans will improve quality of care for beneficiaries.
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Beneficios del Seguro , Medicare Part C , Calidad de la Atención de Salud , Planes de Aranceles por Servicios , Medicare Part C/economía , Medicare Part C/estadística & datos numéricos , Medicare Part C/tendencias , Indicadores de Calidad de la Atención de Salud , Calidad de la Atención de Salud/economía , Calidad de la Atención de Salud/normas , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Cobertura del Seguro/economía , Cobertura del Seguro/estadística & datos numéricos , Cobertura del Seguro/tendencias , Beneficios del Seguro/economía , Beneficios del Seguro/estadística & datos numéricos , Beneficios del Seguro/tendenciasRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: While overall Medicare Part C (Medicare Advantage) enrollment has grown more rapidly than fee-for-service Medicare enrollment, changes in the growth and characteristics of different enrollee populations have not been examined. OBJECTIVES: For 2011-2019, to compare changes in the growth and characteristics of younger (age younger than 65) and older (age 65 and older) Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in Medicare Part A only, Medicare Parts A & B, and Medicare Part C. RESEARCH DESIGN: This was a retrospective, observational study. SUBJECTS: Medicare beneficiaries who were alive and enrolled in Medicare Part A only, Medicare Parts A & B, or Medicare Part C on June 30 of each year and in no other plan that year. MEASURES: For each plan type and age group the numbers and mean ages of enrollees and the proportion of enrollees who were: black, female, concurrently enrolled in Medicaid, and (for older enrollees), whose initial reason for eligibility was old age and survivors' benefits. RESULTS: Between 2011 and 2019, Medicare Part C experienced rapid expansions of 85.0% among older and 109.5% among younger enrollees. Part C enrollees were increasingly likely to be dually enrolled in Medicaid, Black and, among younger enrollees, female. CONCLUSIONS: Trends in demographic characteristics and changes in policy and growth in employer group plan offerings will likely continue to impact health care service utilization and costs in the Medicare population. Particularly as Medicare expansion to younger age groups is considered, future research should explore disparities in risk scores and care equity, quality, and costs across different Medicare enrollment options.
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Planes de Aranceles por Servicios/tendencias , Medicare Part C/tendencias , Medicare/tendencias , Aceptación de la Atención de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Anciano , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Retrospectivos , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Benzodiazepines (BZDs) are widely prescribed to older adults. Although prescribing has declined in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), Medicare introduced BZD coverage in 2013. It is unknown whether declines in the VA have been widespread among older adults in the United States. DESIGN: Observational study in traditional fee-for-service Medicare, commercial insurance, and the VA. SETTING: United States, 2013-2017. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged 55 and older in traditional Medicare (234,290,693 person-months), commercial insurance (337,827,125 person-months), and the VA (256,590,369 person-months). MEASUREMENTS: (1) Change in BZD and BZD-opioid co-prescribing modeled by Poisson regression over time; and (2) standardized ratios of BZD and BZD-opioid co-prescribing, using Medicare as the reference. RESULTS: From April 2013 to December 2017, the monthly percentage of adults aged 55 and older who received BZDs fell from 10.4% to 9.3% in Medicare, 6.6% to 6.5% in commercial insurance, and 5.7% to 3.0% in the VA. Monthly BZD-opioid co-prescribing over the same time fell from 4.0% to 3.0% in Medicare, 2.3% to 2.0% in commercial, and 2.2% to .6% for the VA. Age- and sex-adjusted rates of decline for BZD and BZD-opioid co-prescribing were statistically significant for all systems. Annual BZD rate reductions were .98 (Medicare), .99 (commercial), and .87 (VA; P < .001 for all); co-prescribing rate reductions were .95, .99, and .75 (P < .001 for all). Using standardized ratios accounting for demographic and clinical characteristics, both prescribing and co-prescribing were lowest for the VA relative to Medicare (standardized BZD ratio = .40; 95% confidence interval [CI] = .39-.40; standardized BZD-opioid co-prescribing ratio = .35; 95% CI = .35-.35). Prescribing in commercial insurance was also lower (BZD = .65; 95% CI = .65-.65; BZD-opioid co-prescribing = .65; 95% CI = .65-.65). CONCLUSION: BZD prescribing has declined much more to older adults receiving care through the VA than Medicare or commercial insurance. Other systems may learn from strategies implemented in the VA.
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Benzodiazepinas/uso terapéutico , Planes de Aranceles por Servicios , Medicare Part C , Pautas de la Práctica en Medicina , United States Department of Veterans Affairs , Veteranos , Anciano , Planes de Aranceles por Servicios/estadística & datos numéricos , Planes de Aranceles por Servicios/tendencias , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Medicare , Medicare Part C/estadística & datos numéricos , Medicare Part C/tendencias , Persona de Mediana Edad , Pautas de la Práctica en Medicina/estadística & datos numéricos , Pautas de la Práctica en Medicina/tendencias , Estudios Retrospectivos , Estados Unidos , United States Department of Veterans Affairs/estadística & datos numéricos , United States Department of Veterans Affairs/tendenciasRESUMEN
This paper estimates the magnitude of switching costs in the Medicare Advantage program. Consumers are generally assumed to pick plans that provide the combination of benefits and premiums that maximize their individual utility. However, the plan choice literature has generally omitted prior choices from choice models. The analysis is based on five years of the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, a nationally representative longitudinal dataset. The MCBS data were combined with data on Medicare Advantage Part C plan benefits and premiums. Individual choices are modeled as a function of individual characteristics, plan characteristics and prior year plan choices using a mixed logit model. We found relatively high rates of switching between plans within insurer (20%), although less switching between insurers. Prior year plan choices were highly significant at both the contract and plan level. Premium was negative and significant. Loyalty (contract and plan), premium and plan structure were found to be heterogeneous in preferences. We found a statistically significant willingness to pay for a lower prescription drug deductible and lower copays. Switching costs were higher for sicker individuals. Switching costs between plans offered by the same insurer are far lower than switching costs between insurers; beneficiaries will switch plans if an alternative is perceived as $233 a month better than the current choice and switch insurers if the alternative is perceived as $944 better than the current plan/contract, on average. Premium elasticities would be 34% greater in magnitude if prior choices were irrelevant. We provide evidence that the state dependence is structural rather than spurious.
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Costos de la Atención en Salud/clasificación , Medicare Part C/economía , Conducta de Elección , Costos de la Atención en Salud/tendencias , Humanos , Medicare Part C/tendencias , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
Comparative quality information on health plan and provider performance is increasingly available in the form of quality report cards, but consumers rarely make use of these passively provided decision support tools. In 2012-2013, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) initiated quality-based nudges designed to encourage beneficiaries to move into higher quality Medicare Advantage (MA) plans. We assess the impacts of CMS' targeted quality-based nudges with longitudinal analysis of 2009-2014 MA plan enrollment trends. Nudges are associated with 17% reductions in enrollment in the lowest-performing plans and 3% increases in enrollment in the highest performing plans (annually, p < .01 for both), occurring at the time of nudge implementation and relative to trends for plans with moderate performance that were not targeted by nudges. These findings suggest that quality-based nudges can successfully steer consumers into higher quality plans and provide opportunities for purchasers and payers to increase consumers' use of quality information.
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Conducta de Elección , Comportamiento del Consumidor , Toma de Decisiones , Seguro de Salud , Medicare Part C/estadística & datos numéricos , Calidad de la Atención de Salud , Anciano , Humanos , Medicare Part C/tendencias , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: To explore whether the Affordable Care Act (ACA)'s Medicare Advantage (MA) payment cuts were associated with changes in enrollees' access to and affordability of healthcare relative to traditional Medicare (TM). STUDY DESIGN: Descriptive analyses of changes in access and affordability in MA relative to TM between 2009 and 2017 and between 2011 and 2017. METHODS: Respondents who reported Medicare coverage on the National Health Interview Survey were divided into MA and TM enrollees. Using multivariate regression to adjust for demographic, economic, and health status changes over time, we compared changes in healthcare access and affordability for the 2 groups between 2009 and 2017, as the ACA payment cuts were implemented. For some measures, the analysis covers 2011 to 2017. RESULTS: Between 2009 and 2017, MA respondents did not report statistically significant changes in healthcare access or affordability after adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic, and health status changes in the MA population. There were no statistically significant differences between changes in access and affordability for beneficiaries in MA relative to those in TM over this period. CONCLUSIONS: Although MA payment cuts were expected to reduce the attractiveness of the MA program to both plans and enrollees, the program's enrollment grew steadily from 2009 to 2017. Over this period, plans reduced their costs for providing Part A and Part B benefits to their enrollees, thereby preserving room for rebates. Our findings show that plans made such cost reductions without significantly affecting enrollees' access to or affordability of care compared with TM beneficiaries.
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Costos y Análisis de Costo/economía , Costos y Análisis de Costo/estadística & datos numéricos , Accesibilidad a los Servicios de Salud/economía , Medicare Part C/economía , Medicare Part C/estadística & datos numéricos , Medicare/economía , Medicare/estadística & datos numéricos , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Costos y Análisis de Costo/tendencias , Femenino , Predicción , Accesibilidad a los Servicios de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Accesibilidad a los Servicios de Salud/tendencias , Humanos , Masculino , Medicare/tendencias , Medicare Part C/tendencias , Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act/economía , Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act/estadística & datos numéricos , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
The Medicare program is quietly becoming privatized through increasing enrollment in Medicare Advantage (MA) plans, even though MA has not lived up to its promise of delivering better care at lower cost. Policymakers must reverse this trend and ensure parity between traditional Medicare and MA rather than encourage it through legislation that only benefits MA. Furthermore, as discussions of expanding health insurance coverage through Medicare intensify, policymakers should explore what version of Medicare they wish to expand.
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Medicare Part C/tendencias , Medicare/tendencias , Privatización/tendencias , Humanos , Medicare/economía , Medicare/organización & administración , Medicare Part C/economía , Medicare Part C/organización & administración , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
Disenrollment rates are one way that policy makers assess the performance of Medicare Advantage (MA) health plans. We use 3 years of data published by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) to examine the characteristics of MA contracts with high disenrollment rates from 2015 to 2017 and the relationship between disenrollment rates in MA contracts and 6 patient experiences of care performance measures. We find that MA contracts with high disenrollment rates were significantly more likely to be for-profit, small, and enroll a greater proportion of low-income and disabled individuals. After adjusting for plan characteristics, contracts with the highest levels of disenrollment were statistically significantly more likely to perform poorly on all 6 patient experience measures. CMS should consider additional oversight of MA contracts with high levels of disenrollment and consider publishing disenrollment rates at the plan level instead of at the contract level.
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Programas Controlados de Atención en Salud/economía , Medicare Part C/economía , Medicare Part C/tendencias , Indicadores de Calidad de la Atención de Salud , Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, U.S./economía , Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, U.S./normas , Humanos , Programas Controlados de Atención en Salud/normas , Pobreza , Sector Privado , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
Issue: Medicare Advantage (MA), the private option to traditional Medicare, now serves roughly 37 percent of beneficiaries. Congress intended MA plans to achieve efficiencies in the provision of health care that lead to savings for Medicare through managed competition among private health plans. Goal: Two elements are needed for savings to accrue: a sound payment policy and effective competition among the private plans. This brief examines the latter. Methods: We use data from 200917 to describe market structure in MA, including the insurers offering plans and enrollment in each U.S. county. We measure both actual and potential competitors for each county for each year. Key Findings and Conclusions: MA markets are highly concentrated and have become more concentrated since 2009. From 200917, 70 percent or more of enrollees were in highly concentrated markets, dominated by two or three insurers. Since the payment system used to reimburse insurers selling in the MA market relies on competition to spur efficiency and premiums that more closely reflect insurers' actual costs, these developments suggest that taxpayers and beneficiaries will overpay. We also find an average of six potential entrants into MA markets, which points to a source of competition that may be activated in MA. To tap into potential competition, further research is needed to understand the factors affecting entry into MA markets.
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Competencia Económica/economía , Sector de Atención de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Medicare Part C/estadística & datos numéricos , Predicción , Sector de Atención de Salud/tendencias , Humanos , Medicare Part C/tendencias , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
PURPOSE: To compare patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) initiating direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) versus warfarin on clinical outcomes including stroke, systemic embolism (SE), bleeding events, and cost of care. METHODS: This retrospective observational study used Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug and fully insured commercial claims from the Humana Research Database. Patients with AF who initiated a DOAC or warfarin from January 1, 2012, through September 30, 2015, were included. Date of the first prescription of DOAC or warfarin was the index date. Patients in the DOAC and warfarin groups were matched on propensity scores. Patients were censored at end of enrollment or study period, discontinuation, or switch of index medication. Clinical outcomes were compared in the matched groups using Cox proportional hazards models. Annualized costs and costs adjusted for censoring using Lin's interval method were also compared between the two cohorts. RESULTS: Patients on DOACs had a significantly lower risk of ischemic stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.79-0.98), hemorrhagic stroke (HR, 0.65; CI, 0.46-0.92), SE (HR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.43-0.65), and composite outcome of stroke or SE (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.71-0.86) compared with patients on warfarin. Bleeding risk was not statistically significant (HR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.71-1.01). While annualized pharmacy costs were higher, annualized medical and total costs were lower in the DOAC group compared with the warfarin group. CONCLUSION: The results of the study indicated that patients on DOACs had lower rates of ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, SE, and composite outcome of stroke or SE compared with patients on warfarin. No significant differences in bleeding rates between the DOAC and warfarin groups were observed, while total cost of care was lower in the DOAC group.
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Anticoagulantes/administración & dosificación , Fibrilación Atrial/tratamiento farmacológico , Fibrilación Atrial/epidemiología , Medicare Part C , Warfarina/administración & dosificación , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Anticoagulantes/efectos adversos , Fibrilación Atrial/diagnóstico , Femenino , Hemorragia/inducido químicamente , Hemorragia/diagnóstico , Hemorragia/epidemiología , Humanos , Estudios Longitudinales , Masculino , Medicare Part C/tendencias , Estudios Retrospectivos , Accidente Cerebrovascular/diagnóstico , Accidente Cerebrovascular/epidemiología , Accidente Cerebrovascular/prevención & control , Resultado del Tratamiento , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Warfarina/efectos adversosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Developing a definition of what constitutes high need among Medicare beneficiaries using administrative data is an important prerequisite to evaluating value-based payment reforms. While various definitions of high need exist, their predictive validity for different patient outcomes in the following year has not been systematically assessed for both fee-for-service (FFS) and Medicare Advantage (MA) beneficiaries. OBJECTIVE: To develop a definition of high need using administrative data in 2014 and to examine its predictive validity for patient outcomes in 2015 as compared to alternative definitions for both FFS and MA beneficiaries. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of national Medicare claims and post-acute assessment data. PARTICIPANTS: All Medicare beneficiaries in 2014 who survived until the end of the year (n = 54,717,039). MAIN MEASURES: Two or more complex conditions, 6 or more chronic conditions, acute or post-acute health services utilization, indicators of frailty, complete dependency in mobility or in any activities of daily living in post-acute care assessments, hospitalization, mortality, days in community, Medicare expenditures. KEY RESULTS: Based on our definition of high-need patients, 13.17% of FFS and 8.85% of MA beneficiaries were identified as high need in 2014. High-need FFS patients had mortality rates 7.1 times higher (16.23% vs. 2.27%) and hospitalization rates 3.4 times higher (40.69 vs. 12.03) in 2015 compared to other beneficiaries. Competing high-need definitions all had good specificity (≥ 0.88). Having 3 or more Hierarchical Chronic Conditions yielded a good positive predictive value for hospitalization, at 0.50, but only identified 19.71% of FFS beneficiaries hospitalized and 28.46% of FFS decedents that year as high need, as opposed to 33.92% and 51.98% for the new definition. Results were similar for MA beneficiaries. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed high-need definition has better sensitivity and yields a sample of almost 5 million FFS and 1.5 million MA beneficiaries, facilitating outcome performance comparisons across health systems.
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Interpretación Estadística de Datos , Necesidades y Demandas de Servicios de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Beneficios del Seguro/estadística & datos numéricos , Medicare Part C/estadística & datos numéricos , Mortalidad , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Bases de Datos Factuales/estadística & datos numéricos , Bases de Datos Factuales/tendencias , Femenino , Necesidades y Demandas de Servicios de Salud/tendencias , Hospitalización/tendencias , Humanos , Beneficios del Seguro/tendencias , Masculino , Medicare Part C/tendencias , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mortalidad/tendencias , Estudios Retrospectivos , Factores de Riesgo , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Efforts to improve the value of care for high-cost patients may benefit from care management strategies targeted at clinically distinct subgroups of patients. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of three different machine learning algorithms for identifying subgroups of high-cost patients. DESIGN: We applied three different clustering algorithms-connectivity-based clustering using agglomerative hierarchical clustering, centroid-based clustering with the k-medoids algorithm, and density-based clustering with the OPTICS algorithm-to a clinical and administrative dataset. We then examined the extent to which each algorithm identified subgroups of patients that were (1) clinically distinct and (2) associated with meaningful differences in relevant utilization metrics. PARTICIPANTS: Patients enrolled in a national Medicare Advantage plan, categorized in the top decile of spending (n = 6154). MAIN MEASURES: Post hoc discriminative models comparing the importance of variables for distinguishing observations in one cluster from the rest. Variance in utilization and spending measures. KEY RESULTS: Connectivity-based, centroid-based, and density-based clustering identified eight, five, and ten subgroups of high-cost patients, respectively. Post hoc discriminative models indicated that density-based clustering subgroups were the most clinically distinct. The variance of utilization and spending measures was the greatest among the subgroups identified through density-based clustering. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning algorithms can be used to segment a high-cost patient population into subgroups of patients that are clinically distinct and associated with meaningful differences in utilization and spending measures. For these purposes, density-based clustering with the OPTICS algorithm outperformed connectivity-based and centroid-based clustering algorithms.
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Algoritmos , Costos de la Atención en Salud , Aprendizaje Automático/economía , Medicare Part C/economía , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Análisis por Conglomerados , Femenino , Costos de la Atención en Salud/tendencias , Humanos , Aprendizaje Automático/tendencias , Masculino , Medicare Part C/tendencias , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Policy and financial pressures have driven up use of observation stays for patients in traditional Medicare and the Veterans' Affairs Healthcare System. Using claims data (2004-2014) from OptumLabs™ Data Warehouse, we examined whether people in private Medicare Advantage (MA) and commercial plans experienced similar changes. We found that use of observation increased rapidly for patients in MA plans-even though MA plans were not subject to the same pressures as government-run programs. In contrast, use of observation remained constant for people in commercial plans-except for enrollees 65 and older, for whom it increased somewhat. Privately insured patients returning to the hospital after an inpatient stay were increasingly likely to be placed under observation. Our results suggest that observation is rapidly replacing inpatient admissions and readmissions for many older patients in MA and commercial plans, while younger patients continue to be admitted as inpatients at relatively constant rates.
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Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Pacientes Internos/estadística & datos numéricos , Medicare Part C/tendencias , Readmisión del Paciente/tendencias , Adulto , Factores de Edad , Anciano , Bases de Datos Factuales , Femenino , Hospitalización/tendencias , Hospitales , Humanos , Cobertura del Seguro/estadística & datos numéricos , Cobertura del Seguro/tendencias , Seguro de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Seguro de Salud/tendencias , Masculino , Medicare Part C/economía , Medicare Part C/estadística & datos numéricos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Readmisión del Paciente/estadística & datos numéricos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
This study examines whether the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP), which penalizes hospitals with excess readmissions for certain conditions, has reduced hospital readmissions and led to unintended consequences. Our analyses of Florida hospital administrative data between 2008 and 2014 find that the HRRP resulted in a reduction in the likelihood of readmissions by 1% to 2% for traditional Medicare (TM) beneficiaries with heart failure, pneumonia, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Readmission rates for Medicare Advantage (MA) beneficiaries and privately insured patients with heart attack and heart failure decreased even more than TM patients with the same target condition (e.g., for heart attack, the likelihood for TM beneficiaries to be remitted is 2.2% higher than MA beneficiaries and 2.3% higher than privately insured patients). We do not find any evidence of cost-shifting, delayed readmission, or selection on discharge disposition or patient income. However, the HRRP reduced the likelihood of Hispanic patients with target conditions being admitted by 2% to 4%.
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Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Hospitalización/tendencias , Medicare Part C/tendencias , Medicare/tendencias , Readmisión del Paciente/estadística & datos numéricos , Readmisión del Paciente/tendencias , Anciano , Etnicidad/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Florida , Insuficiencia Cardíaca , Hospitales , Humanos , Masculino , Medicare/estadística & datos numéricos , Medicare Part C/estadística & datos numéricos , Neumonía , Enfermedad Pulmonar Obstructiva Crónica , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: There is a growing focus on improving the quality and value of health care delivery for high-cost patients. Compared to fee-for-service Medicare, less is known about the clinical composition of high-cost Medicare Advantage populations. OBJECTIVE: To describe a high-cost Medicare Advantage population and identify clinically and operationally significant subgroups of patients. DESIGN: We used a density-based clustering algorithm to group high-cost patients (top 10% of spending) according to 161 distinct demographic, clinical, and claims-based variables. We then examined rates of utilization, spending, and mortality among subgroups. PARTICIPANTS: Sixty-one thousand five hundred forty-six Medicare Advantage beneficiaries. MAIN MEASURES: Spending, utilization, and mortality. KEY RESULTS: High-cost patients (n = 6154) accounted for 55% of total spending. High-cost patients were more likely to be younger, male, and have higher rates of comorbid illnesses. We identified ten subgroups of high-cost patients: acute exacerbations of chronic disease (mixed); end-stage renal disease (ESRD); recurrent gastrointestinal bleed (GIB); orthopedic trauma (trauma); vascular disease (vascular); surgical infections and other complications (complications); cirrhosis with hepatitis C (liver); ESRD with increased medical and behavioral comorbidity (ESRD+); cancer with high-cost imaging and radiation therapy (oncology); and neurologic disorders (neurologic). The average number of inpatient days ranged from 3.25 (oncology) to 26.09 (trauma). Preventable spending (as a percentage of total spending) ranged from 0.8% (oncology) to 9.5% (complications) and the percentage of spending attributable to prescription medications ranged from 7.9% (trauma and oncology) to 77.0% (liver). The percentage of patients who were persistently high-cost ranged from 11.8% (trauma) to 100.0% (ESRD+). One-year mortality ranged from 0.0% (liver) to 25.8% (ESRD+). CONCLUSIONS: We identified clinically distinct subgroups of patients within a heterogeneous high-cost Medicare Advantage population using cluster analysis. These subgroups, defined by condition-specific profiles and illness trajectories, had markedly different patterns of utilization, spending, and mortality, holding important implications for clinical strategy.
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Enfermedad Crónica/economía , Enfermedad Crónica/epidemiología , Costos de la Atención en Salud , Medicare Part C/economía , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Enfermedad Crónica/tendencias , Femenino , Costos de la Atención en Salud/tendencias , Humanos , Masculino , Medicare Part C/tendencias , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: To describe trends in the rate and daily dose of opioids used among commercial and Medicare Advantage beneficiaries from 2007 to 2016. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of administrative claims data. SETTING: National database of medical and pharmacy claims for commercially insured and Medicare Advantage beneficiaries in the United States. PARTICIPANTS: 48 million individuals with any period of insurance coverage between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2016, including commercial beneficiaries, Medicare Advantage beneficiaries aged 65 years and over, and Medicare Advantage beneficiaries under age 65 years (eligible owing to permanent disability). MAIN ENDPOINTS: Proportion of beneficiaries with any opioid prescription per quarter, average daily dose in milligram morphine equivalents (MME), and proportion of opioid use episodes that represented long term use. RESULTS: Across all years of the study, annual opioid use prevalence was 14% for commercial beneficiaries, 26% for aged Medicare beneficiaries, and 52% for disabled Medicare beneficiaries. In the commercial beneficiary group, quarterly prevalence of opioid use changed little, starting and ending the study period at 6%; the average daily dose of 17 MME remained unchanged since 2011. For aged Medicare beneficiaries, quarterly use prevalence was also relatively stable, ranging from 11% at the beginning of the study period to 14% at the end. Disabled Medicare beneficiaries had the highest rates of opioid use, the highest rate of long term use, and the largest average daily doses. In this group, both quarterly use rates (39%) and average daily dose (56 MME) were higher at the end of 2016 than the low points observed in 2007 for each endpoint (26% prevalence and 53 MME). CONCLUSIONS: Opioid use rates were high during the study period of 2007-16, with the highest rates in disabled Medicare beneficiaries versus aged Medicare beneficiaries and commercial beneficiaries. Opioid use and average daily dose have not substantially declined from their peaks, despite increased attention to opioid abuse and awareness of their risks.
Asunto(s)
Analgésicos Opioides/uso terapéutico , Planes de Seguro con Fines de Lucro/tendencias , Medicare Part C/tendencias , Adolescente , Adulto , Factores de Edad , Anciano , Niño , Preescolar , Personas con Discapacidad , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Prevalencia , Estudios Retrospectivos , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The Medicare STAR program for Medicare Advantage Plans that include drug benefits provides monetary incentives for health plans to achieve good adherence to oral antihyperglycemic (OAH) agents but does not account for differential case mix that could affect the ability of health plans to achieve the required quality metrics. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether OAH adherence varies by age and comorbidities among patients aged 65 years or older and the extent to which adherence affects glycemic control across age and comorbidity strata. METHODS: We studied 54,480 patients with diabetes aged > 65 years from the Colorado, Northwest, and Northern California regions of Kaiser Permanente who received OAH agents but not insulin in 2010. We calculated adherence using the proportion of days covered (PDC) method. Per the STAR program, hemoglobin A1c < 8% defined good glycemic control. We also defined poor control as A1c > 9%. We used modified Poisson regression to identify predictors of adherence and to determine its effects on A1c across age and comorbidity strata, adjusting for sociodemographics and medication-related variables. RESULTS: The risk of being adherent to OAH declined moderately with an increasing number of comorbidities (risk ratio [RR] = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.98-1.00 for 1 comorbidity and RR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.88-0.91 for 4 or more comorbidities). Adherence to OAH agents was associated with a 0%-3% increased risk of A1c < 8% across age and comorbidity categories, as well as a large decreased risk (RR = 0.55-0.73) of A1c > 9% for patients aged < 80 years or with < 3 comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with diabetes aged > 65 years, having multiple comorbidities affects adherence. Adherence reduces the risk of poor A1c control among patients aged 65-79 years or with 2 or fewer comorbidities. Our results suggest that health plan case mix minimally influenced the Medicare STAR OAH adherence metric, but it may affect glycemic control quality measures, especially if a HEDIS-like measure of poor control were adopted. DISCLOSURES: This study was supported by grant number 1R21DK103146-01A1 from the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Disorders. Nichols currently receives grant funding from Boehringer-Ingelheim, Sanofi, Amarin Pharma, and Janssen Pharmaceuticals for other unrelated research projects. The other authors declare no conflicts of interest. This study was presented at the American Diabetes Association's 77th Scientific Sessions; June 9-13, 2017; San Diego, CA.