A simplified pneumonia severity index (PSI) for clinical outcome prediction in COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The Pneumonia Score Index (PSI) was developed to estimate the risk of dying within 30 days of presentation for community-acquired pneumonia patients and is a strong predictor of 30-day mortality after COVID-19. However, three of its required 20 variables (skilled nursing home, altered mental status and pleural effusion) are not discreetly available in the electronic medical record (EMR), resulting in manual chart review for these 3 factors. The goal of this study is to compare a simplified 17-factor version (PSI-17) to the original (denoted PSI-20) in terms of prediction of 30-day mortality in COVID-19. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, the hospitalized patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between 2/28/20-5/28/20 were identified to compare the predictive performance between PSI-17 and PSI-20. Correlation was assessed between PSI-17 and PSI-20, and logistic regressions were performed for 30-day mortality. The predictive abilities were compared by discrimination, calibration, and overall performance. RESULTS: Based on 1,138 COVID-19 patients, the correlation between PSI-17 and PSI-20 was 0.95. Univariate logistic regression showed that PSI-17 had performance similar to PSI-20, based on AUC, ICI and Brier Score. After adjusting for confounding variables by multivariable logistic regression, PSI-17 and PSI-20 had AUCs (95% CI) of 0.85 (0.83-0.88) and 0.86 (0.84-0.89), respectively, indicating no significant difference in AUC at significance level of 0.05. CONCLUSION: PSI-17 and PSI-20 are equally effective predictors of 30-day mortality in terms of several performance metrics. PSI-17 can be obtained without the manual chart review, which allows for automated risk calculations within an EMR. PSI-17 can be easily obtained and may be a comparable alternative to PSI-20.

Characteristics of children readmitted with severe pneumonia in Kenyan hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality. Hospital re-admission may signify missed opportunities for care or undiagnosed comorbidities. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study including children aged ≥ 2 months-14 years hospitalised with severe pneumonia between 2013 and 2021 in a network of 20 primary referral hospitals in Kenya. Severe pneumonia was defined using the 2013 World Health Organization criteria, and re-admission was based on clinical documentation from individual patient case notes. We estimated the prevalence of re-admission, described clinical management practices, and modelled risk factors for re-admission and inpatient mortality. RESULTS: Among 20,603 children diagnosed with severe pneumonia, 2,274 (11.0%, 95% CI 10.6-11.5) were readmitted. Re-admission was independently associated with age (12-59 months vs. 2-11 months: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.70, 1.54-1.87; >5 years vs. 2-11 months: aOR 1.85, 1.55-2.22), malnutrition (weight-for-age-z-score (WAZ) <-3SD vs. WAZ> -2SD: aOR 2.05, 1.84-2.29); WAZ - 2 to -3 SD vs. WAZ> -2SD: aOR 1.37, 1.20-1.57), wheeze (aOR 1.17, 1.03-1.33) and presence of a concurrent neurological disorder (aOR 4.42, 1.70-11.48). Chest radiography was ordered more frequently among those readmitted (540/2,274 [23.7%] vs. 3,102/18,329 [16.9%], p < 0.001). Readmitted patients more frequently received second-line antibiotics (808/2,256 [35.8%] vs. 5,538/18,173 [30.5%], p < 0.001), TB medication (69/2,256 [3.1%] vs. 298/18,173 [1.6%], p < 0.001), salbutamol (530/2,256 [23.5%] vs. 3,707/18,173 [20.4%], p = 0.003), and prednisolone (157/2,256 [7.0%] vs. 764/18,173 [4.2%], p < 0.001). Inpatient mortality was 2,354/18,329 (12.8%) among children admitted with a first episode of severe pneumonia and 269/2,274 (11.8%) among those who were readmitted (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.93, 95% CI 0.82-1.07). Age (12-59 months vs. 2-11 months: aHR 0.62, 0.57-0.67), male sex (aHR 0.81, 0.75-0.88), malnutrition (WAZ <-3SD vs. WAZ >-2SD: aHR 1.87, 1.71-2.05); WAZ - 2 to -3 SD vs. WAZ >-2SD: aHR 1.46, 1.31-1.63), complete vaccination (aHR 0.74, 0.60-0.91), wheeze (aHR 0.87, 0.78-0.98) and anaemia (aHR 2.14, 1.89-2.43) were independently associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Children readmitted with severe pneumonia account for a substantial proportion of pneumonia hospitalisations and deaths. Further research is required to develop evidence-based approaches to screening, case management, and follow-up of children with severe pneumonia, prioritising those with underlying risk factors for readmission and mortality.

The dose-response relationship between physical activity and the risk of death from pneumonia in middle-aged and older adults: A meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Deaths from COVID-19 are concentrated in older adults, and studies have reported that physical activity (PA) can reduce the risk of death from pneumonia. METHODS: Eight cohort studies and 2 case-control studies were included according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria established in this meta-analysis study followed the PRISMA guideline, 8 cohort studies and 2 case-control studies were finally included. Then, the research objects in these studies were classified to further study the dose-response relationship and non-dose-response relationship. RESULTS: The highest dose of PA reduced the risk of death by 59% (risk ratio = 0.41; 95% confidence interval: 0.23-0.58) compared with the lowest dose of PA in middle-aged and elderly people. Furthermore, when the PA level was <10 m/wk, the risk of death from pneumonia was reduced by 6% every 4.5 MET-h/wk increase. At a PA level > 10 m/wk, the risk of death from pneumonia increased by 5% every 4.5 MET-h/wk increase. At a PA level > 30 m/wk, PA is a risk factor for pneumonia-related death in middle-aged and elderly people. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis showed that PA was associated with a reduced risk of dying from pneumonia in middle-aged and older adults, and that there was a significant nonlinear negative dose-response relationship between PA levels and the risk of dying from pneumonia. Therefore, moderate exercise was recommended.

Adverse outcomes in patients hospitalized with pneumonia at age 60 or more: A prospective multi-centric hospital-based study in India.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exists regarding risk factors for adverse outcomes in older adults hospitalized with Community-Acquired Pneumonia (CAP) in low- and middle-income countries such as India. This multisite study aimed to assess outcomes and associated risk factors among adults aged ≥60 years hospitalized with pneumonia. METHODS: Between December 2018 and March 2020, we enrolled ≥60-year-old adults admitted within 48 hours for CAP treatment across 16 public and private facilities in four sites. Clinical data and nasal/oropharyngeal specimens were collected by trained nurses and tested for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and other respiratory viruses (ORV) using the qPCR. Participants were evaluated regularly until discharge, as well as on the 7th and 30th days post-discharge. Outcomes included ICU admission and in-hospital or 30-day post-discharge mortality. A hierarchical framework for multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models identified risk factors (e.g., demographics, clinical features, etiologic agents) associated with critical care or death. FINDINGS: Of 1,090 CAP patients, the median age was 69 years; 38.4% were female. Influenza viruses were detected in 12.3%, RSV in 2.2%, and ORV in 6.3% of participants. Critical care was required for 39.4%, with 9.9% in-hospital mortality and 5% 30-day post-discharge mortality. Only 41% of influenza CAP patients received antiviral treatment. Admission factors independently associated with ICU admission included respiratory rate >30/min, blood urea nitrogen>19mg/dl, altered sensorium, anemia, oxygen saturation <90%, prior cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and private hospital admission. Diabetes, anemia, low oxygen saturation at admission, ICU admission, and mechanical ventilation were associated with 30-day mortality. CONCLUSION: High ICU admission and 30-day mortality rates were observed among older adults with pneumonia, with a significant proportion linked to influenza and RSV infections. Comprehensive guidelines for CAP prevention and management in older adults are needed, especially with the co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2.

Smoking is associated with higher risk of contracting bacterial infection and pneumonia, intensive care unit admission and death.

BACKGROUND: Smoking has been associated with a higher risk of contracting pneumonia, but contradictory results have shown that smoking may or may not decrease the risk of dying in pneumonia. The aim of this study is to investigate how smoking is associated with contracting any infection and pneumonia and death. METHOD AND FINDINGS: Participants were drawn from the population-based Cohort of Swedish Men and the Swedish Mammography Cohort, which are representative of the Swedish population. Participants have answered detailed lifestyle questionnaires and have been followed in national registers, such as the Patient Register, Cause of Death register and Swedish Intensive Care Registry. The risks of contracting infection and pneumonia or dying in infection and pneumonia were assessed using Cox regression. Of 62,902 cohort participants, 25,297 contracted an infection of which 4,505 died; and 10,471 contracted pneumonia of which 2,851 died. Compared to never smokers, former smokers at baseline had hazard ratio (HR) 1.08 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.12) of contracting and HR 1.19 (95% CI 1.11-1.28) of dying in infection and HR 1.17 (95% CI 1.12-1.23) of contracting and HR 1.16 (95% CI 1.06-1.27) of dying in pneumonia during follow-up. Compared to never smokers, current smokers at baseline had HR 1.17 (95% CI 1.13-1.21) of contracting infection and HR 1.64 (95% CI 1.52-1.77) dying in infection; HR 1.42 (95% CI 1.35-1.49) of contracting pneumonia and HR 1.70 (95% CI 1.55-1.87) of dying in pneumonia during follow-up. The risk of contracting and dying in infection and pneumonia increased in a dose-response manner with number of pack years smoked and decreased with years since smoking cessation. CONCLUSION: Smoking is associated with contracting and dying in any infection and pneumonia and the risk increases with pack years smoked, highlighting the importance of both primary prevention and smoking cessation.

No evidence of difference in mortality with amoxicillin versus co-amoxiclav for hospital treatment of community-acquired pneumonia.

OBJECTIVES: Current guidelines recommend broad-spectrum antibiotics for high-severity community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), potentially contributing to antimicrobial resistance (AMR). We aim to compare outcomes in CAP patients treated with amoxicillin (narrow-spectrum) versus co-amoxiclav (broad-spectrum), to understand if narrow-spectrum antibiotics could be used more widely. METHODS: We analysed electronic health records from adults (≥16 y) admitted to hospital with a primary diagnosis of pneumonia between 01-January-2016 and 30-September-2023 in Oxfordshire, United Kingdom. Patients receiving baseline ([-12 h,+24 h] from admission) amoxicillin or co-amoxiclav were included. The association between 30-day all-cause mortality and baseline antibiotic was examined using propensity score (PS) matching and inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) to address confounding by baseline characteristics and disease severity. Subgroup analyses by disease severity and sensitivity analyses with missing covariates imputed were also conducted. RESULTS: Among 16,072 admissions with a primary diagnosis of pneumonia, 9685 received either baseline amoxicillin or co-amoxiclav. There was no evidence of a difference in 30-day mortality between patients receiving initial co-amoxiclav vs. amoxicillin (PS matching: marginal odds ratio 0.97 [0.76-1.27], p = 0.61; IPTW: 1.02 [0.78-1.33], p = 0.87). Results remained similar across stratified analyses of mild, moderate, and severe pneumonia. Results were also similar with missing data imputed. There was also no evidence of an association between 30-day mortality and use of additional macrolides or additional doxycycline. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of co-amoxiclav being advantageous over amoxicillin for treatment of CAP in 30-day mortality at a population-level, regardless of disease severity. Wider use of narrow-spectrum empirical treatment of moderate/severe CAP should be considered to curb potential for AMR.

Clinical analysis of air-leak syndrome following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in pediatric patients.

BACKGROUND: Air-leak syndrome (ALS) is considered as an independent risk factor for poor prognosis in adult patients who had received hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), and the 5-year overall survival (OS) of ALS is less than 30%. However, the clinical features of ALS among post-transplant pediatric patients have rarely been explored. PROCEDURES: We retrospectively reviewed 2206 pediatric patients who had received an allo-HSCT between January 2013 and December 2019 at the Hebei Yanda Lu Daopei Hospital, and analyzed the role of ALS in prognosis following HSCT. RESULTS: In our research, ALS was divided into two categories: 15 cases of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) and 13 cases of idiopathic pneumonia syndrome (IPS). Following treatment of the ALS, 18 patients survived (18/28, 64.3%), and 10 patients died of respiratory failure or infection (10/28, 35.7%). CONCLUSIONS: The OS of ALS in Hebei Yanda Lu Daopei Hospital is significantly higher than others, and they were cited to be related to early diagnosis and timely FAM treatment in previous reports.

The clinical value of mNGS of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid versus traditional microbiological tests for pathogen identification and prognosis of severe pneumonia (NT-BALF):study protocol for a prospective multi-center randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Early, rapid, and accurate pathogen diagnosis can help clinicians select targeted treatment options, thus improving prognosis and reducing mortality rates of severe pneumonia. Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) has a higher sensitivity and broader pathogen spectrum than traditional microbiological tests. However, the effects of mNGS-based antimicrobial treatment procedures on clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness in patients with severe pneumonia have not been evaluated. METHODS: This is a regional, multi-center, open, prospective, randomized controlled trial to evaluate that whether the combination of mNGS and traditional testing methods could decrease 28-day call-cause mortality with moderate cost-effectiveness. A total of 192 patients with severe pneumonia will be recruited from four large tertiary hospitals in China. Bronchoalveolar lavage fluid will be obtained in all patients and randomly assigned to the study group (mNGS combined with traditional microbiological tests) or the control group (traditional microbiological tests only) in a 1:1 ratio. Individualized antimicrobial treatment and strategy will be selected according to the analysis results. The primary outcome is 28-day all-cause mortality. The secondary outcomes are ICU and hospital length of stay (LOS), ventilator-free days and ICU-free days, consistency between mNGS and traditional microbiological tests, detective rate of mNGS and traditional microbiological tests, turn-out time, time from group allocation to start of treatment, duration of vasopressor support, types and duration of anti-infective regimens, source of drug-resistant bacteria or fungi, and ICU cost. DISCUSSION: The clinical benefits of mNGS are potentially significant, but its limitations should also be considered. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ChineseClinicalTrialRegistry.org, ChiCTR2300076853. Registered on 22 October 2023.

Comparison of outcomes and characteristics of patients admitted to the ICU with COVID-19 and other community-acquired pneumonia based on propensity score matching.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the similarities and differences between patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and those with other community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), utilizing propensity score matching (PSM), regarding hospitalization expenses, treatment options, and prognostic outcomes, aiming to inform the diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19. METHODS: Patients admitted to the ICU of the Third People's Hospital of Datong City, diagnosed with COVID-19 from December 2022 to February 2023, constituted the observation group, while those with other CAP admitted from January to November 2022 formed the control group. Basic information, clinical data at admission, and time from symptom onset to admission were matched using PSM. RESULTS: A total of 70 patients were included in the COVID-19 group and 119 in the CAP group. The patients were matched by the propensity matching method, and 37 patients were included in each of the last two groups. After matching, COVID-19 had a higher failure rate than CAP, but the difference was not statistically significant (73% vs. 51%, p = 0.055). The utilization rate of antiviral drugs (40% vs. 11%, p = 0.003), γ-globulin (19% vs. 0%, p = 0.011) and prone position ventilation (PPV) (27% vs. 0%, p < 0.001) in patients with COVID-19 were higher than those in the CAP, and the differences were statistically significant. The total hospitalization cost of COVID-19 patients was lower than that of CAP patients, and the difference was statistically significant (27889.5 vs. 50175.9, p = 0.007). The hospital stay for COVID-19 patients was shorter than for CAP patients, but the difference was not statistically significant (10.9 vs. 16.6, p = 0.071). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that limited medical resources influenced patient outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Addressing substantial demands for ICU capacity and medications during this period could have potentially reduced the mortality rate among COVID-19 patients.

Clinical features and disease progression of elderly patients at the ICU setting.

OBJECTIVE: To describe and characterize a cohort of octogenarian patients admitted to the ICU of the University Central Hospital of Asturias (HUCA). DESIGN: Retrospective, observational and descriptive study of 14 months' duration. SETTING: Cardiac and Medical intensive care units (ICU) of the HUCA (Oviedo). PARTICIPANTS: Patients over 80 years old who were admitted to the ICU for more than 24 h. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST: Age, sex, comorbidity, functional dependence, treatment, complications, evolution, mortality. RESULTS: The most frequent reasons for admission were cardiac surgery and pneumonia. The average admission stay was significantly longer in patients under 85 years of age (p = 0,037). 84,3% of the latter benefited from invasive mechanical ventilation compared to 46,2% of older patients (p = <0,001). Patients over 85 years of age presented greater fragility. Admission for cardiac surgery was associated with a lower risk of mortality (HR = 0,18; 95% CI (0,062-0,527; p = 0,002). CONCLUSIONS: The results have shown an association between the reason for admission to the ICU and the risk of mortality in octogenarian patients. Cardiac surgery was associated with a better prognosis compared to medical pathology, where pneumonia was associated with a higher risk of mortality. Furthermore, a significant positive association was observed between age and frailty.

Identifying the Best Initial Oral Antibiotics for Adults with Community-Acquired Pneumonia: A Network Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this network meta-analysis was to compare rates of clinical response and mortality for empiric oral antibiotic regimens in adults with mild-moderate community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). METHODS: We searched PubMed, Cochrane, and the reference lists of systematic reviews and clinical guidelines. We included randomized trials of adults with radiologically confirmed mild to moderate CAP initially treated orally and reporting clinical cure or mortality. Abstracts and studies were reviewed in parallel for inclusion in the analysis and for data abstraction. We performed separate analyses by antibiotic medications and antibiotic classes and present the results through network diagrams and forest plots sorted by p-scores. We assessed the quality of each study using the Cochrane Risk of Bias framework, as well as global and local inconsistency. RESULTS: We identified 24 studies with 9361 patients: six at low risk of bias, six at unclear risk, and 12 at high risk. Nemonoxacin, levofloxacin, and telithromycin were most likely to achieve clinical response (p-score 0.79, 0.71, and 0.69 respectively), while penicillin and amoxicillin were least likely to achieve clinical response. Levofloxacin, nemonoxacin, azithromycin, and amoxicillin-clavulanate were most likely to be associated with lower mortality (p-score 0.85, 0.75, 0.74, and 0.68 respectively). By antibiotic class, quinolones and macrolides were most effective for clinical response (0.71 and 0.70 respectively), with amoxicillin-clavulanate plus macrolides and beta-lactams being less effective (p-score 0.11 and 0.22). Quinolones were most likely to be associated with lower mortality (0.63). All confidence intervals were broad and partially overlapping. CONCLUSION: We observed trends toward a better clinical response and lower mortality for quinolones as empiric antibiotics for CAP, but found no conclusive evidence of any antibiotic being clearly more effective than another. More trials are needed to inform guideline recommendations on the most effective antibiotic regimens for outpatients with mild to moderate CAP.

Hydrocortisone plus fludrocortisone for community acquired pneumonia-related septic shock: a subgroup analysis of the APROCCHSS phase 3 randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Glucocorticoids probably improve outcomes in patients hospitalised for community acquired pneumonia (CAP). In this a priori planned exploratory subgroup analysis of the phase 3 randomised controlled Activated Protein C and Corticosteroids for Human Septic Shock (APROCCHSS) trial, we aimed to investigate responses to hydrocortisone plus fludrocortisone between CAP and non-CAP related septic shock. METHODS: APROCCHSS was a randomised controlled trial that investigated the effects of hydrocortisone plus fludrocortisone, drotrecogin-alfa (activated), or both on mortality in septic shock in a two-by-two factorial design; after drotrecogin-alfa was withdrawn on October 2011, from the market, the trial continued on two parallel groups. It was conducted in 34 centres in France. In this subgroup study, patients with CAP were a preselected subgroup for an exploratory secondary analysis of the APROCCHSS trial of hydrocortisone plus fludrocortisone in septic shock. Adults with septic shock were randomised 1:1 to receive, in a double-blind manner, a 7-day treatment with daily administration of intravenous hydrocortisone 50 mg bolus every 6h and a tablet of 50 µg of fludrocortisone via the nasogastric tube, or their placebos. The primary outcome was 90-day all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included all-cause mortality at intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital discharge, 28-day and 180-day mortality, the number of days alive and free of vasopressors, mechanical ventilation, or organ failure, and ICU and hospital free-days to 90-days. Analysis was done in the intention-to-treat population. The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00625209). FINDINGS: Of 1241 patients included in the APROCCHSS trial, CAP could not be ruled in or out in 31 patients, 562 had a diagnosis of CAP (279 in the placebo group and 283 in the corticosteroid group), and 648 patients did not have CAP (329 in the placebo group and 319 in the corticosteroid group). In patients with CAP, there were 109 (39%) deaths of 283 patients at day 90 with hydrocortisone plus fludrocortisone and 143 (51%) of 279 patients receiving placebo (odds ratio [OR] 0·60, 95% CI 0·43-0·83). In patients without CAP, there were 148 (46%) deaths of 319 patients at day 90 in the hydrocortisone and fludrocortisone group and 157 (48%) of 329 patients in the placebo group (OR 0·95, 95% CI 0·70-1·29). There was significant heterogeneity in corticosteroid effects on 90-day mortality across subgroups with CAP and without CAP (p=0·046 for both multiplicative and additive interaction tests; moderate credibility). Of 1241 patients included in the APROCCHSS trial, 648 (52%) had ARDS (328 in the placebo group and 320 in the corticosteroid group). There were 155 (48%) deaths of 320 patients at day 90 in the corticosteroid group and 186 (57%) of 328 patients in the placebo group. The OR for death at day 90 was 0·72 (95% CI 0·53-0·98) in patients with ARDS and 0·85 (0·61-1·20) in patients without ARDS (p=0·45 for multiplicative interaction and p=0·42 for additive interaction). The OR for observing at least one serious adverse event (corticosteroid group vs placebo) within 180 days post randomisation was 0·64 (95% CI 0·46-0·89) in the CAP subgroup and 1·02 (0·75-1·39) in the non-CAP subgroup (p=0·044 for multiplicative interaction and p=0·042 for additive interaction). INTERPRETATION: In a pre-specified subgroup analysis of the APROCCHSS trial of patients with CAP and septic shock, hydrocortisone plus fludrocortisone reduced mortality as compared with placebo. Although a large proportion of patients with CAP also met criteria for ARDS, the subgroup analysis was underpowered to fully discriminate between ARDS and CAP modifying effects on mortality reduction with corticosteroids. There was no evidence of a significant treatment effect of corticosteroids in the non-CAP subgroup. FUNDING: Programme Hospitalier de Recherche Clinique of the French Ministry of Health, by Programme d'Investissements d'Avenir, France 2030, and IAHU-ANR-0004.

Machine learning models to evaluate mortality in pediatric patients with pneumonia in the intensive care unit.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to predict mortality in children with pneumonia who were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) to aid decision-making. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study conducted at a single tertiary hospital. PATIENTS: This study included children who were admitted to the pediatric ICU at the National Taiwan University Hospital between 2010 and 2019 due to pneumonia. METHODOLOGY: Two prediction models were developed using tree-structured machine learning algorithms. The primary outcomes were ICU mortality and 24-h ICU mortality. A total of 33 features, including demographics, underlying diseases, vital signs, and laboratory data, were collected from the electronic health records. The machine learning models were constructed using the development data set, and performance matrices were computed using the holdout test data set. RESULTS: A total of 1231 ICU admissions of children with pneumonia were included in the final cohort. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of the ICU mortality model and 24-h ICU mortality models was 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.91) and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.86-0.92), respectively. Based on feature importance, the model developed in this study tended to predict increased mortality for the subsequent 24 h if a reduction in the blood pressure, peripheral capillary oxygen saturation (SpO2), or higher partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PCO2) were observed. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that the machine learning models for predicting ICU mortality and 24-h ICU mortality in children with pneumonia have the potential to support decision-making, especially in resource-limited settings.

Predictors of mechanical ventilation and mortality in critically ill patients with COVID-19 pneumonia / Predictores de ventilación mecánica y mortalidad en pacientes críticos con neumonía por COVID-19

Objective To determine if potential predictors for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) are also determinants for mortality in COVID-19-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome (C-ARDS). Design Single center highly detailed longitudinal observational study. Setting Tertiary hospital ICU: two first COVID-19 pandemic waves, Madrid, Spain. Patients or participants : 280 patients with C-ARDS, not requiring IMV on admission. Interventions None. Main variables of interest : Target: endotracheal intubation and IMV, mortality. Predictors: demographics, hourly evolution of oxygenation, clinical data, and laboratory results. Results The time between symptom onset and ICU admission, the APACHE II score, the ROX index, and procalcitonin levels in blood were potential predictors related to both IMV and mortality. The ROX index was the most significant predictor associated with IMV, while APACHE II, LDH, and DaysSympICU were the most with mortality. Conclusions According to the results of the analysis, there are significant predictors linked with IMV and mortality in C-ARDS patients, including the time between symptom onset and ICU admission, the severity of the COVID-19 waves, and several clinical and laboratory measures. These findings may help clinicians to better identify patients at risk for IMV and mortality and improve their management. (AU)

Objetivo Determinar si las variables clínicas independientes que condicionan el inicio de ventilación mecánica invasiva (VMI) son los mismos que condicionan la mortalidad en el síndrome de distrés respiratorio agudo asociado con COVID-19 (C-SDRA). Diseño Estudio observacional longitudinal en un solo centro. Ámbito UCI, hospital terciario: primeras dos olas de COVID-19 en Madrid, España. Pacientes o participantes 280 pacientes con C-SDRA que no requieren VMI al ingreso en UCI. Intervenciones Ninguna. Principales variables de interés Objetivo: VMI y Mortalidad. Predictores: demográficos, variables clínicas, resultados de laboratorio y evolución de la oxigenación. Resultados El tiempo entre el inicio de los síntomas y el ingreso en la UCI, la puntuación APACHE II, el índice ROX y los niveles de procalcitonina en sangre eran posibles predictores relacionados tanto con la IMV como con la mortalidad. El índice ROX fue el predictor más significativo asociada con la IMV, mientras que APACHE II, LDH y DaysSympICU fueron los más influyentes en la mortalidad. Conclusiones Según los resultados obtenidos se identifican predictores significativos vinculados con la VMI y mortalidad en pacientes con C-ARDS, incluido el tiempo entre el inicio de los síntomas y el ingreso en la UCI, la gravedad de las olas de COVID-19 y varias medidas clínicas y de laboratorio. Estos hallazgos pueden ayudar a los médicos a identificar mejor a los pacientes en riesgo de IMV y mortalidad y mejorar su manejo. (AU)

Serum Krebs von den Lungen-6 is associated with in-Hospital mortality of patients with severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Currently, no ideal biomarker can accurately stratify the risk of patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP). This study aimed to evaluate the role of serum Krebs von den Lungen-6 (sKL-6) in predicting in-hospital mortality in adults with SCAP. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, 249 severe pneumonia adult patients were recruited between 6 May 2021 to 30 April 2023 in Xiangya Hospital of Central South University. The sKL-6 level within 48 h of admission was measured, and the primary outcome assessed was in-hospital mortality. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to calculate adjusted odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Survival curves were plotted and subgroup analyses were conducted, stratified by relevant covariates. RESULTS: A total of 249 patients were included in the study,with 124 patients having normal sKL-6 levels, and 125 patients having abnormal sKL-6 levels. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 28.9% (72 out of 249 patients). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the patients with abnormal sKL-6 levels had a higher risk of in-hospital mortality compared to those with normal sKL-6 levels, both in the total SCAP patient population (OR: 5.38, 95%CI: 2.41-12.01, P < 0.001) and the non-COVID-19 SCAP patients subgroup (OR: 8.12, 95%CI: 3.16-20.84, P < 0.001). Subgroup and interaction analyses confirmed the stability of the relationship between sKL-6 levels and in-hospital mortality(P for interaction > 0.05). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that patients with abnormal sKL-6 levels had a higher in-hospital mortality rate than those with normal sKL-6 levels (P < 0.05). However, the results of restricted cubic spline plots(RCS) analysis demonstrated a nonlinear association between sKL-6 levels (as a continuous variable) and in-hospital mortality in patients with SCAP. Similar results were observed in non-COVID-19 SCAP patients. Furthermore, the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis revealed that sKL-6 had superior predictive performance compared to existing biomarkers (e.g., APACHE-II, SOFA, BUN/Cr, PCT, and D-dimer) for in-hospital mortality in non-COVID-19 SCAP patients. CONCLUSION: sKL-6 is a practical and useful biomarker for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with SCAP.

Impact of macrolide treatment on long-term mortality in patients admitted to the ICU due to CAP: a targeted maximum likelihood estimation and survival analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) have high mortality rates during the acute infection and up to ten years thereafter. Recommendations from international CAP guidelines include macrolide-based treatment. However, there is no data on the long-term outcomes of this recommendation. Therefore, we aimed to determine the impact of macrolide-based therapy on long-term mortality in this population. METHODS: Registered patients in the MIMIC-IV database 16 years or older and admitted to the ICU due to CAP were included. Multivariate analysis, targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) to simulate a randomised controlled trial, and survival analyses were conducted to test the effect of macrolide-based treatment on mortality six-month (6 m) and twelve-month (12 m) after hospital admission. A sensitivity analysis was performed excluding patients with Pseudomonas aeruginosa or MRSA pneumonia to control for Healthcare-Associated Pneumonia (HCAP). RESULTS: 3775 patients were included, and 1154 were treated with a macrolide-based treatment. The non-macrolide-based group had worse long-term clinical outcomes, represented by 6 m [31.5 (363/1154) vs 39.5 (1035/2621), p < 0.001] and 12 m mortality [39.0 (450/1154) vs 45.7 (1198/2621), p < 0.001]. The main risk factors associated with long-term mortality were Charlson comorbidity index, SAPS II, septic shock, and respiratory failure. Macrolide-based treatment reduced the risk of dying at 6 m [HR (95% CI) 0.69 (0.60, 0.78), p < 0.001] and 12 m [0.72 (0.64, 0.81), p < 0.001]. After TMLE, the protective effect continued with an additive effect estimate of - 0.069. CONCLUSION: Macrolide-based treatment reduced the hazard risk of long-term mortality by almost one-third. This effect remains after simulating an RCT with TMLE and the sensitivity analysis for the HCAP classification.

Association of body mass index and weight change with pneumonia mortality in a Japanese population: Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Accumulating evidence suggests that pneumonia mortality is lower for individuals with high body mass index (BMI) compared to normal BMI, but it remains unclear whether weight change during adulthood influences subsequent mortality due to pneumonia in Asian populations, who have a relatively lean body mass. This study aimed to examine the association of BMI and weight change over 5 years with the subsequent risk of pneumonia mortality in a Japanese population. METHODS: The present analysis included 79,564 Japan Public Health Center (JPHC)-based Prospective Study participants who completed a questionnaire between 1995 and 1998 were followed for death through 2016. BMI was categorized into four groups: underweight (<18.5 kg/m2), normal weight (BMI: 18.5-24.9 kg/m2), overweight (25.0-29.9 kg/m2), and obese (BMI: ≥30.0 kg/m2). Weight change was defined as the difference of body weight between questionnaire surveys with a 5-year interval. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios of baseline BMI and weight change for pneumonia mortality. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 18.9 y, we identified 994 deaths from pneumonia. Compared with participants with normal weight, an elevated risk was observed among those who were underweight (hazard ratio = 2.29, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.83-2.87), whereas a decreased risk was found among those who were overweight (hazard ratio = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.53-0.75). Regarding weight change, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) of pneumonia mortality for a weight loss of 5 kg or more versus a weight change of less than 2.5 kg was 1.75 (1.46-2.10), whereas that for a weight gain of 5 kg or more was 1.59 (1.27-2.00). CONCLUSION: Underweight and greater weight change was associated with an increase in the risk of pneumonia mortality in Japanese adults.

Hydrocortisone in Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Whether the antiinflammatory and immunomodulatory effects of glucocorticoids may decrease mortality among patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia is unclear. METHODS: In this phase 3, multicenter, double-blind, randomized, controlled trial, we assigned adults who had been admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) for severe community-acquired pneumonia to receive intravenous hydrocortisone (200 mg daily for either 4 or 7 days as determined by clinical improvement, followed by tapering for a total of 8 or 14 days) or to receive placebo. All the patients received standard therapy, including antibiotics and supportive care. The primary outcome was death at 28 days. RESULTS: A total of 800 patients had undergone randomization when the trial was stopped after the second planned interim analysis. Data from 795 patients were analyzed. By day 28, death had occurred in 25 of 400 patients (6.2%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.9 to 8.6) in the hydrocortisone group and in 47 of 395 patients (11.9%; 95% CI, 8.7 to 15.1) in the placebo group (absolute difference, -5.6 percentage points; 95% CI, -9.6 to -1.7; P = 0.006). Among the patients who were not undergoing mechanical ventilation at baseline, endotracheal intubation was performed in 40 of 222 (18.0%) in the hydrocortisone group and in 65 of 220 (29.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.40 to 0.86). Among the patients who were not receiving vasopressors at baseline, such therapy was initiated by day 28 in 55 of 359 (15.3%) of the hydrocortisone group and in 86 of 344 (25.0%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.82). The frequencies of hospital-acquired infections and gastrointestinal bleeding were similar in the two groups; patients in the hydrocortisone group received higher daily doses of insulin during the first week of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia being treated in the ICU, those who received hydrocortisone had a lower risk of death by day 28 than those who received placebo. (Funded by the French Ministry of Health; CAPE COD ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02517489.).

Predictores de muerte en pacientes hospitalizados por neumonía adquirida en la comunidad / Predictors of death in patients hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia

Fundamento: la neumonía adquirida en la comunidad constituye un importante problema de salud dada su elevada incidencia y relación con la mortalidad. Objetivo: Evaluar la asociación de factores seleccionados con la letalidad en pacientes hospitalizados por neumonía adquirida en la comunidad. Método: estudio descriptivo que incluyó 1.809 pacientes con neumonía hospitalizados entre los años 2012 y 2020. Fueron evaluados factores relacionados con el paciente, con la enfermedad y con la intervención terapéutica, como variables independientes; como variable dependiente fue considerado el estado al alta. En el análisis estadístico, que incluyó análisis bivariado y multivariado (regresión logística), se utilizó el odds ratio y su intervalo de confianza de 95%. Resultados: Se demostró asociación significativa entre varias condiciones evaluadas y la letalidad por neumonía; los factores que mostraron mayor fuerza de asociación fueron la edad de 60 años o más (OR 4,8[2,9;7,9]), el estado de gravedad al ingreso (OR 2,7[2;3,5]), el encamamiento durante la hospitalización (OR 2,5[1,9;3,3]), el encamamiento previo al ingreso (OR 2[1,5;2,7]), el no tratamiento adecuado de las comorbilidades (OR 1,8[1,07;3,3]) y la extensión radiológica del proceso neumónico más allá de un lóbulo (OR 1,7[1,3;2,2]). Conclusiones: Se reafirma el relevante papel que desempeñan una serie de factores relacionados con condicionantes del paciente, con la propia enfermedad y con la intervención médica, en las probabilidades de morir por esta afección. (AU)

Background: community-acquired pneumonia is an important health problem given its high incidence and relationship with mortality. Objective: to evaluate the association of selected factors with lethality in patients hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia. Method: descriptive study that included 1,809 patients with pneumonia hospitalized between 2012 and 2020. Factors related to the patient, the disease, and the therapeutic intervention were evaluated as independent variables; The state at discharge was considered as the dependent variable. In the statistical analysis, which included bivariate and multivariate analysis (logistic regression), the odds ratio and its 95% confidence interval were used. Results: a significant association was demonstrated between several conditions evaluated and the lethality due to pneumonia; the factors that showed the greatest strength of association were age 60 years or older (OR 4.8[2.9;7.9]), severity status at admission (OR 2.7[2;3.5] ), bedridden during hospitalization (OR 2.5[1.9;3.3]), bedridden prior to admission (OR 2[1.5;2.7]), failure to adequately treat comorbidities ( OR 1.8[1.07;3.3]) and radiological extension of the pneumonic process beyond one lobe (OR 1.7[1.3;2.2]). Conclusions: the relevant role played by a series of factors related to the patient's conditions, to the disease itself and to medical intervention, in the chances of dying from this condition is reaffirmed. (AU)