Development of a real-time fluorescent reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification assay with quenching primers for rapid detection of rubella virus.

Rubella virus infection during early pregnancy sometimes causes severe birth defects termed congenital rubella syndrome. Although there are safe and effective live-attenuated vaccines, rubella has only been certified as eliminated in the Americas within the six World Health Organization regions. Rubella remains an endemic disease in many regions, and outbreaks occur wherever population immunity is insufficient. There are two main methods for diagnosis of rubella: detection of anti-rubella IgM antibodies by enzyme immunoassay and detection of the viral genome by real-time RT-PCR. Both of these methods require substantial time and effort. In the present study, a rapid rubella detection assay using real-time fluorescent reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification with quenching primers was developed. The time required for the new assay was one-half that required for a real-time RT-PCR assay. The assay had 93.6% positive percent agreement and 100% negative percent agreement for clinical specimens compared with the real-time RT-PCR assay. The new assay is considered useful for diagnosis of rubella in areas where rubella is endemic.

Rubella vaccine-induced granulomas are a novel phenotype with incomplete penetrance of genetic defects in cytotoxicity.

BACKGROUND: Rubella virus-induced granulomas have been described in patients with various inborn errors of immunity. Most defects impair T-cell immunity, suggesting a critical role of T cells in rubella elimination. However, the molecular mechanism of virus control remains elusive. OBJECTIVE: This study sought to understand the defective effector mechanism allowing rubella vaccine virus persistence in granulomas. METHODS: Starting from an index case with Griscelli syndrome type 2 and rubella skin granulomas, this study combined an international survey with a literature search to identify patients with cytotoxicity defects and granuloma. The investigators performed rubella virus immunohistochemistry and PCR and T-cell migration assays. RESULTS: This study identified 21 patients with various genetically confirmed cytotoxicity defects, who presented with skin and visceral granulomas. Rubella virus was demonstrated in all 12 accessible biopsies. Granuloma onset was typically before 2 years of age and lesions persisted from months to years. Granulomas were particularly frequent in MUNC13-4 and RAB27A deficiency, where 50% of patients at risk were affected. Although these proteins have also been implicated in lymphocyte migration, 3-dimensional migration assays revealed no evidence of impaired migration of patient T cells. Notably, patients showed no evidence of reduced control of concomitantly given measles, mumps, or varicella live-attenuated vaccine or severe infections with other viruses. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified lymphocyte cytotoxicity as a key effector mechanism for control of rubella vaccine virus, without evidence for its need in control of live measles, mumps, or varicella vaccines. Rubella vaccine-induced granulomas are a novel phenotype with incomplete penetrance of genetic disorders of cytotoxicity.

Analysis of Morphological Changes in the CNS and Internal Organs of Macaca mulatta Monkeys after Intracerebral Injection of a Low-Attenuated Rubella Virus Strain.

We studied the localization and severity of morphological changes in CNS and internal organs of animals intacerebrally infected with a low-attenuated rubella virus strain "Orlov-14". The data obtained can be used as morphological criteria reflecting low level of attenuation of rubella virus strains to improve the control of the safety of attenuated strains of live rubella vaccines.

Study of the teratogenicity of the vaccine strain of the Rubella virus «Orlov-V¼ (Matonaviridae: Rubivirus: Rubella virus) in experience on rhesus macaques.

INTRODUCTION: Rubella virus has pronounced teratogenic properties that can cause generalized and persistent intrauterine infection of the fetus. As a result, the control of the loss of teratogenicity inherent in «wild-type¼ virus strains is a necessary stage of a preclinical study of the vaccine strain for a live attenuated rubella vaccine.The purpose of the study is to comprehensively study the teratogenic properties of the vaccine strain of rubella virus «Orlov-V¼ in the experiment on rhesus macaques. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Seronegative to rubella virus female rhesus macaques in early pregnancy at the age of 4-7 years (n = 13) were used in the experiment. Animals of the experimental group (n = 9) received single immunization intramuscularly with a preparation from the «Orlov-V¼ strain. The control group of the monkeys (n = 3) were immunized with a commercial vaccine containing Wistar RA27/3 strain. The female of the control group (n = 1) was injected with a solvent used in the rubella vaccine. Study of possible teratogenic properties of vaccine strains of rubella virus was carried out using a complex of clinical, immunological, pathomorphological and virological methods. Clinical observations were made within 3 months after the monkeys' birth. Determination of antibody titers in the blood serum of immunized monkeys was performed in HI test on the 28th-30th day after infection. The ELISA method was applied to determine IgM antibodies in the blood serum of newborns within the first month of life. Detection of rubella virus RNA was performed by PCR with electrophoretic detection of amplicons. RESULTS: No markers of congenital rubella infection were found in infants born from monkeys vaccinated during the pregnancy. It is shown that PCR can be an informative method to confirm the absence of teratogenic properties of vaccine strains of rubella virus. DISCUSSION: The obtained data demonstrated that vaccine strains of the «Orlov-V¼ rubella virus and Wistar RA27/3 have lost their teratogenic properties. The possibility of using an alternative strategy for preclinical assessment of specific safety of antiviral vaccines including a complex of clinical, immunological, pathologic and virological methods instead of the classical pathologic method is discussed. CONCLUSION: The results obtained in this study showed the absence of teratogenic properties and high immunogenic activity of the vaccine strain of rubella virus «Orlov-V¼.

Relatives of rubella virus in diverse mammals.

Since 1814, when rubella was first described, the origins of the disease and its causative agent, rubella virus (Matonaviridae: Rubivirus), have remained unclear1. Here we describe ruhugu virus and rustrela virus in Africa and Europe, respectively, which are, to our knowledge, the first known relatives of rubella virus. Ruhugu virus, which is the closest relative of rubella virus, was found in apparently healthy cyclops leaf-nosed bats (Hipposideros cyclops) in Uganda. Rustrela virus, which is an outgroup to the clade that comprises rubella and ruhugu viruses, was found in acutely encephalitic placental and marsupial animals at a zoo in Germany and in wild yellow-necked field mice (Apodemus flavicollis) at and near the zoo. Ruhugu and rustrela viruses share an identical genomic architecture with rubella virus2,3. The amino acid sequences of four putative B cell epitopes in the fusion (E1) protein of the rubella, ruhugu and rustrela viruses and two putative T cell epitopes in the capsid protein of the rubella and ruhugu viruses are moderately to highly conserved4-6. Modelling of E1 homotrimers in the post-fusion state predicts that ruhugu and rubella viruses have a similar capacity for fusion with the host-cell membrane5. Together, these findings show that some members of the family Matonaviridae can cross substantial barriers between host species and that rubella virus probably has a zoonotic origin. Our findings raise concerns about future zoonotic transmission of rubella-like viruses, but will facilitate comparative studies and animal models of rubella and congenital rubella syndrome.

Impact of vaccination on measles, mumps, and rubella antibody titers in Japanese healthcare workers: An observational study.

Given the complicated history of Japan's National Immunization Program, a significant proportion of Japanese people including healthcare workers (HCWs) still lack adequate immunity against measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR), resulting in occasional outbreaks. In 2014, the Japanese Society of Infection Prevention and Control (JSIPC) published vaccination guidelines for HCWs. We evaluated antibody titers before and after MMR vaccination in HCWs at the Nara Medical University Hospital, the attainment rate of the target antibody titers defined by the JSIPC guidelines, and the safety of vaccines. We measured MMR antibody titers in HCWs, followed by inoculation with the respective monovalent vaccines and/or trivalent MMR (tMMR) vaccine according to the JSIPC guidelines. Among 467 HCWs evaluated, antibody titers against measles and mumps measured using the IgG-enzyme immunoassay increased from 11.0 [interquartile range (IQR): 8.0-13.6] to 13.7 (IQR: 11.3-16.9; P < 0.001) and from 2.8 (IQR: 2.1-3.5) to 4.8 (IQR: 3.7-5.7; P < 0.001), respectively. By evaluating a logarithmic value of log2(X + 1) converted from an antibody titer X, antibody titers against rubella measured using the hemagglutination assay increased from 3.2 (IQR: 0-4.1) to 6.0 (IQR: 4.6-8.0; P < 0.001). Antibody titer elevated following tMMR vaccination was lower than that following monovalent vaccination in a single dose of the measles-containing, a single dose of the mumps-containing, and two doses of rubella-containing vaccine groups (P = 0.01, 0.01, and <0.001, respectively). After vaccination, 20.0%, 61.5%, and 46.2% of HCWs attained target antibody titers specified by the JSIPC guidelines for measles, rubella, and mumps, respectively. The systemic response in female HCWs who underwent monovalent mumps vaccination was statistically higher than that in others. Although the vaccination program for HCWs according to the JSIPC guidelines caused increased MMR antibody titers, the rates of attaining the target criteria were low.

Comparative studies of rubella virus immunity of immunized and non-immunized pregnant women visiting Kogi State University Teaching Hospital, Anyigba, North Central Nigeria.

Rubella is endemic worldwide and poses a serious threat to infants and pregnant women. Although the disease has been widely reported in parts of the country, there is currently no documented evidence of the disease in Anyigba. A comparative study of rubella immunity was conducted among immunized and non-immunized pregnant women visiting the Kogi State University Teaching Hospital, Anyigba. In a cross-sectional study, blood samples collected from 300 pregnant women (immunized = 127; non-immunized = 173) were tested for rubella antibodies using ELISA kit. Overall, anti-rubella-IgM and IgG seroprevalence rates of 38 (12.7%) and 83 (27.7%) were detected. Seventy (55.1%) of the immunized against 13 (7.5%) of non-immunized women had detectable IgG. The non-immunized women were significantly more seropositive for IgM than the immunized who recorded higher prevalence of IgG. Immunized and non-immunized women aged 23-32 years had higher IgG and IgM positivity rates. The difference in IgM and IgG seropositivity rates in relation to vaccination was statistically significant (P < 0.05) between the immunized (0.8%, 55.1%) and vaccine-naïve subjects (21.4%, 7.5%). Low level of awareness and high susceptibility to rubella virus infection especially among the non-immunized women was confirmed in study area, thus the need for government to strengthen education of masses and to make rubella vaccination freely available for women of childbearing age.

Comparison of virological and serological methods for laboratory confirmation of rubella.

BACKGROUND: Work toward rubella elimination has accelerated globally. A reliable laboratory confirmation of rubella-suspected cases is required for effective surveillance in the rubella-elimination phase. The use of adequate specimens is a key to improving the quality of this surveillance. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted rubella virus (RUBV) isolation and RUBV genome or anti-RUBV IgM detection on 1023 specimens from 372 rubella- or measles-suspected cases collected through the national surveillance program in Sakai city of Osaka prefecture, Japan between 2011 and 2013. The resulting data were analyzed by specimen type, collection date, and immunological status. RESULTS: Among the three specimen types (throat swab, serum or plasma, and urine) collected through 10 days post-rash onset, the highest success rates for RUBV genome detection and RUBV isolation were obtained using throat swabs. In agreement with previous work, RUBV-specific IgM were undetectable in 50% of the rubella-confirmed cases until 3 days after rash onset. The success rates of RUBV genome detection and RUBV isolation declined in association with the appearance of RUBV-specific antibodies in blood, especially in serum, plasma, or urine samples. CONCLUSION: Throat swabs are the most optimal specimen types for both RUBV genome detection and RUBV isolation; serum/plasma samples may be suboptimal, especially for RUBV isolation. The findings from this study will provide useful information for improving laboratory surveillance for rubella in the elimination phase.

Recent trends in seroprevalence of rubella in Korean women of childbearing age: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate the immunity against rubella using the serological status of rubella-specific IgG antibodies (antirubella IgG) in Korean women of childbearing age (15-49 years). DESIGN: Retrospective cross-sectional study. SETTING: Population-based cross-sectional study in South Korea. PARTICIPANTS: Between January 2010 and December 2017, test results from Korean women aged 15-49 years who had visited an obstetric private clinic (nationwide institutions) and had requested rubella-specific IgG antibody tests from Green Cross Laboratories were obtained from the laboratory information system. RESULTS: Between 2010 and 2017, antirubella IgG test results from 328 426 Korean women aged 15-49 years who had visited private obstetric clinics (1438 institutions nationwide) were retrospectively analysed by tested year, age, cohort and geographic regions. Over the 8-year study period, the rate of unimmunised women ranged from 7.8% to 9.7%. Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models showed that the odds of being immune to rubella (positive and equivocal results of antirubella IgG test) were lower in 2017 compared with 2010, in women in their 40s, in a pre-catch-up cohort and in women living in Incheon, Busan, South Gyeongsang, North and South Jeolla and Jeju provinces (p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: In consideration of the factors associated with prevalence of women unimmunised to rubella, future public health efforts should be focused on catch-up activities. The results of this study could be used to strengthen disease control and prevent rubella, including a nationwide immunisation programme.

Descriptive epidemiology of rubella disease and associated virus strains in Uganda.

Rubella virus causes a mild disease; however, infection during the first trimester of pregnancy may lead to congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in over 80% of affected pregnancies. Vaccination is recommended and has been shown to effectively reduce CRS incidence. Uganda plans to introduce routine rubella vaccination in 2019. The World Health Organization recommends assessing the disease burden and obtaining the baseline molecular virological data before vaccine introduction. Sera collected during case-based measles surveillance from January 2005 to July 2018 were tested for rubella immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies. Sera from confirmed rubella outbreaks from January 2012 to August 2017 were screened using real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR); for positive samples, a region within the E1 glycoprotein coding region was amplified and sequenced. Of the 23 196 suspected measles cases serologically tested in parallel for measles and rubella, 5334 (23%) were rubella IgM-positive of which 2710 (50.8%) cases were females with 2609 (96.3%) below 15 years of age. Rubella IgM-positive cases were distributed throughout the country and the highest number was detected in April, August, and November. Eighteen (18%) of the 100 sera screened were real-time RT-PCR-positive of which eight (44.4%) were successfully sequenced and genotypes 1G and 2B were identified. This study reports on the seroprevalence and molecular epidemiology of rubella. Increased knowledge of former and current rubella viruses circulating in Uganda will enhance efforts to monitor the impact of vaccination as Uganda moves toward control and elimination of rubella and CRS.

Long-term Immunogenicity of Measles Vaccine: An Italian Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Levels of antibodies induced by the measles virus-containing vaccine have been shown to decline over time, but there is no formal recommendation about testing immunized subjects (in particular, healthcare workers [HCWs]) to investigate the persistence of measles immunoglobulin G (IgG). METHODS: This study aims to evaluate the long-term immunogenicity of measles vaccine in a sample of medical students and residents of the University of Bari who attended the Hygiene Department for a biological risk assessment (April 2014-June 2018). RESULTS: Two thousand immunized (2 doses of measles-mumps-rubella [MMR] vaccine) students and residents were tested; 305 of these (15%) did not show protective anti-measles IgG. This proportion was higher among subjects who received vaccination at ≤15 months (20%) than in those who received vaccination at 16-23 months (17%) and at ≥24 months (10%) (P < .0001). After an MMR vaccine booster dose, we noted a seroconversion of 74% of seronegative HCWs. The overall seroconversion rate after a second dose (booster) was 93%. No serious adverse events were noted after the booster doses. CONCLUSIONS: An important proportion of subjects immunized for measles do not show a protective IgG titer in the 10 years after vaccination. Our management strategy seems consistent with the purpose of evidencing immunological memory.

Heat Shock Protein 90 Ensures the Integrity of Rubella Virus p150 Protein and Supports Viral Replication.

Two viral nonstructural proteins, p150 and p90, are expressed in rubella virus (RUBV)-infected cells and mediate viral genome replication, presumably using various host machineries. Molecular chaperones are critical host factors for the maintenance of cellular proteostasis, and certain viral proteins use this chaperone system. The RUBV p150 and p90 proteins are generated from a precursor polyprotein, p200, via processing by the protease activity of its p150 region. This processing is essential for RUBV genome replication. Here we show that heat shock protein 90 (HSP90), a molecular chaperone, is an important host factor for RUBV genome replication. The treatment of RUBV-infected cells with the HSP90 inhibitors 17-allylamino-17-desmethoxygeldanamycin (17-AAG) and ganetespib suppressed RUBV genome replication. HSP90α physically interacted with p150, but not p90. Further analyses into the mechanism of action of the HSP90 inhibitors revealed that HSP90 activity contributes to p150 functional integrity and promotes p200 processing. Collectively, our data demonstrate that RUBV p150 is a client of the HSP90 molecular chaperone and that HSP90 functions as a key host factor for RUBV replication.IMPORTANCE Accumulating evidence indicates that RNA viruses use numerous host factors during replication of their genomes. However, the host factors involved in rubella virus (RUBV) genome replication are largely unknown. In this study, we demonstrate that the HSP90 molecular chaperone is needed for the efficient replication of the RUBV genome. Further, we reveal that HSP90 interacts with RUBV nonstructural protein p150 and its precursor polyprotein, p200. HSP90 contributes to the stability of p150 and the processing of p200 via its protease domain in the p150 region. We conclude that the cellular molecular chaperone HSP90 is a key host factor for functional maturation of nonstructural proteins for RUBV genome replication. These findings provide novel insight into this host-virus interaction.

Molecular aspects of the teratogenesis of rubella virus.

Rubella or German measles is an infection caused by rubella virus (RV). Infection of children and adults is usually characterized by a mild exanthematous febrile illness. However, RV is a major cause of birth defects and fetal death following infection in pregnant women. RV is a teratogen and is a major cause of public health concern as there are more than 100,000 cases of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) estimated to occur every year. Several lines of evidence in the field of molecular biology of RV have provided deeper insights into the teratogenesis process. The damage to the growing fetus in infected mothers is multifactorial, arising from a combination of cellular damage, as well as its effect on the dividing cells. This review focuses on the findings in the molecular biology of RV, with special emphasis on the mitochondrial, cytoskeleton and the gene expression changes. Further, the review addresses in detail, the role of apoptosis in the teratogenesis process.

Simultaneous and rapid detection method for measles and rubella using single-tube multiplex real-time quantitative RT-PCR.

Patients with measles or rubella infections manifest acute onset fever accompanying systemic exanthema, which are clinically difficult to be distinguish. Rapid diagnosis and differentiation of such epidemic viral diseases is essential to prevent outbreaks. We developed a single-tube multiplex real-time PCR assay for these indistinguishable viruses. We used previously-reported primer settings, with a slight modification of reporter dye, and applied to multiplex Taqman real-time PCR by cobas z480 (Roche Molecular Systems, Inc.). Consequently, the assay could detect 10 copies/10 µl of measles and rubella with coefficient of variations of 11.2% and 21.8%, respectively. Strengths of our methodology include simplicity of operation, short measurement time (2 h), uses of internal control (confirming a run of PCR), and quantitative measurement with high sensitivity. Both measles and rubella currently cause social outbreaks in Japan. We hope that our single-tube multiplex assay contributes to an early diagnosis, leading to an appropriate infection control measure and prevention of epidemics.

Assessment of Economic Burden of Concurrent Measles and Rubella Outbreaks, Romania, 2011-2012.

We estimated the economic impact of concurrent measles and rubella outbreaks in Romania during 2011-2012. We collected costs from surveys of 428 case-patients and caretakers, government records, and health staff interviews. We then estimated financial and opportunity costs. During the study period, 12,427 measles cases and 24,627 rubella cases were recorded; 27 infants had congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). The cost of the outbreaks was US $9.9 million. Cost per case was US $439 for measles, US $132 for rubella, and US $44,051 for CRS. Up to 36% of households needed to borrow money to pay for illness treatment. Approximately 17% of patients continued to work while ill to pay their treatment expenses. Our key study findings were that households incurred a high economic burden compared with their incomes, the health sector bore most costs, and CRS costs were substantial and relevant to include in rubella outbreak cost studies.

Use of FTA Cards To Transport Throat Swabs and Oral Fluid Samples for Molecular Detection and Genotyping of Measles and Rubella Viruses.

The genetic characterization of measles viruses is an important tool for measles surveillance. Reverse cold chain requirements for the transportation of samples to reference laboratories are challenging in resource-limited settings. FTA cards facilitate the transport of virologic samples at ambient temperature as noninfectious material; however, the utility of FTA cards for the detection and genotyping of measles virus from clinical samples has not been evaluated. Throat swabs (TS) and oral fluid (OF) samples were collected from suspected measles cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Virus detection (reverse transcription-quantitative real-time PCR [RT-qPCR]) and genotyping (endpoint RT-PCR) were compared for samples from 238 suspected cases; these samples were either transported using the reverse cold chain or at ambient temperature on FTA cards. Virus detection showed excellent positive agreement for OF samples compared to TS (95.3%; confidence interval [CI], 91.6 to 97.4), in contrast to 79.4% (CI, 73.5 to 84.3) for TS on FTA, and 85.5% (CI, 80.2 to 89.6) for OF on FTA compared to OF samples. Genotyping results obtained for a subset of samples indicated that 77.3% of all TS and 71.0% of OF samples would produce genotype information compared to 41.6% of TS and 41.3% of OF on FTA cards. Similar results were found for 16 measles-negative samples that were confirmed as rubella cases. Measles genotype B3 and rubella genotype 2B were detected. FTA cards have limited utility for virologic surveillance of sporadic cases of measles; however, they can be a useful tool for the expansion of virologic surveillance in countries where the reverse cold chain is not available.

Immunogenicity and safety of measles-rubella vaccine co-administered with attenuated Japanese encephalitis SA 14-14-2 vaccine in infants aged 8 months in China: a non-inferiority randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: In China, measles-rubella vaccine and live attenuated SA 14-14-2 Japanese encephalitis vaccine (LJEV) are recommended for simultaneous administration at 8 months of age, which is the youngest recommended age for these vaccines worldwide. We aimed to assess the effect of the co-administration of these vaccines at 8 months of age on the immunogenicity of measles-rubella vaccine. METHODS: We did a multicentre, open-label, non-inferiority, two-group randomised controlled trial in eight counties or districts in China. We recruited healthy infants aged 8 months who had received all scheduled vaccinations according to the national immunisation recommendations and who lived in the county of the study site. Enrolled infants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either measles-rubella vaccine and LJEV simultaneously (measles-rubella plus LJEV group) or measles-rubella vaccine alone (measles-rubella group). The primary outcome was the proportion of infants with IgG antibody seroconversion for measles 6 weeks after vaccination, and a secondary outcome was the proportion of infants with IgG antibody seroconversion for rubella 6 weeks after vaccination. Analyses included all infants who completed the study. We used a 5% margin to establish non-inferiority. This trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02643433). FINDINGS: 1173 infants were assessed for eligibility between Aug 13, 2015, and June 10, 2016. Of 1093 (93%) enrolled infants, 545 were randomly assigned to the measles-rubella plus LJEV group and 548 to the measles-rubella group. Of the infants assigned to each group, 507 in the measles-rubella plus LJEV group and 506 in the measles-rubella group completed the study. Before vaccination, six (1%) of 507 infants in the measles-rubella plus LJEV group and one (<1%) of 506 in the measles-rubella group were seropositive for measles; eight (2%) infants in the measles-rubella plus LJEV group and two (<1%) in the measles-rubella group were seropositive for rubella. 6 weeks after vaccination, measles seroconversion in the measles-rubella plus LJEV group (496 [98%] of 507) was non-inferior to that in the measles-rubella group (499 [99%] of 506; difference -0·8% [90% CI -2·6 to 1·1]) and rubella seroconversion in the measles-rubella plus LJEV group (478 [94%] of 507) was non-inferior to that in the measles-rubella group (473 [94%] of 506 infants; difference 0·8% [90% CI -1·8 to 3·4]). There were no serious adverse events in either group and no evidence of a difference between the two groups in the prevalence of any local adverse event (redness, rashes, and pain) or systemic adverse event (fever, allergy, respiratory infections, diarrhoea, and vomiting). Fever was the most common adverse event (97 [19%] of 507 infants in the measles-rubella plus LJEV group; 108 [21%] of 506 infants in the measles-rubella group). INTERPRETATION: The evidence of similar seroconversion and safety with co-administered LJEV and measles-rubella vaccines supports the co-administration of these vaccines to infants aged 8 months. These results will be important for measles and rubella elimination and the expansion of Japanese encephalitis vaccination in countries where it is endemic. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, US Department of Health and Human Services; China-US Collaborative Program on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases.

Sample size calculation for estimating key epidemiological parameters using serological data and mathematical modelling.

BACKGROUND: Our work was motivated by the need to, given serum availability and/or financial resources, decide on which samples to test in a serum bank for different pathogens. Simulation-based sample size calculations were performed to determine the age-based sampling structures and optimal allocation of a given number of samples for testing across various age groups best suited to estimate key epidemiological parameters (e.g., seroprevalence or force of infection) with acceptable precision levels in a cross-sectional seroprevalence survey. METHODS: Statistical and mathematical models and three age-based sampling structures (survey-based structure, population-based structure, uniform structure) were used. Our calculations are based on Belgian serological survey data collected in 2001-2003 where testing was done, amongst others, for the presence of Immunoglobulin G antibodies against measles, mumps, and rubella, for which a national mass immunisation programme was introduced in 1985 in Belgium, and against varicella-zoster virus and parvovirus B19 for which the endemic equilibrium assumption is tenable in Belgium. RESULTS: The optimal age-based sampling structure to use in the sampling of a serological survey as well as the optimal allocation distribution varied depending on the epidemiological parameter of interest for a given infection and between infections. CONCLUSIONS: When estimating epidemiological parameters with acceptable levels of precision within the context of a single cross-sectional serological survey, attention should be given to the age-based sampling structure. Simulation-based sample size calculations in combination with mathematical modelling can be utilised for choosing the optimal allocation of a given number of samples over various age groups.