Medium-Sized Cities Facing the Demographic Challenge in Spain's Low-Density Regions through Citizen Participation Projects.

The roles of medium-sized cities in processes of demographic challenge have taken many different paths. New forms of urban sprawl, deconcentrating processes, and the emergence of the diffuse city have marked a change in the relations that Spanish medium-sized cities have traditionally had with their most directly influenced territories. In line with the theoretical framework of the European next generation urban regeneration programme, the main aim of this paper is to propose a methodology to develop a project that fosters resilience strategies and the revitalization of local environments. This will also benefit the institutions that are involved in promoting it. The innovative methodology employed has been denominated the "We Propose!" project and has received several national acknowledgments. This is a strategically designed civic participation urban renewal project and has been subject to geographical analysis through field trips and in situ research. A case study into urban renewal strategies was carried out in Ciudad Real, which is a medium-sized city in Spain's third largest region. It includes an evaluation of both the design and implementation of what could be considered a successful case of urban renewal carried out in the city. This urban development initiative was undertaken by the public administration, but it was designed and proposed by local citizens.

Does the construction of an integrated transport network promote urban innovation? A perspective based on the theory of flow space.

Transportation infrastructure, which has always been regarded as an important element to promote regional innovation, accelerates factor flows and productivity spillovers. In February 2021, the State Council of China issued the outline of national integrated multidimensional transportation network planning (2021-2050), which proposed that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the Yangtze River Delta would speed up the construction of an integrated transport network to serve the dual circulation development pattern in China. However, few studies have systematically investigated the development of integrated transport in the Yangtze River Delta, especially the relationship between transport operating efficiency and regional innovation based on the theory of flow space. This study aims to calculate the integrated transport efficiency of 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta and analyse the spillover effect of efficiency improvement on urban innovation. The results reveal that integrated transport efficiency is relatively stable at approximately 0.92. We find that the local innovation value would increase by 0.119% with every 1% increase in transport efficiency, and it would exceed 0.26% after introducing spatial factors. The spillover effect on the surrounding cities is significantly higher than that in the cities themselves, and the result is 0.292 under the economic spatial distance weight matrix. These findings will support the construction of the integrated transport network and provide useful references for government decision makers in the Yangtze River Delta.

Analysis and optimization of 15-minute community life circle based on supply and demand matching: A case study of Shanghai.

The 15-minute community life circle (15min-CLC) strategy is one of Shanghai's important methods for building a global city and facing a society with a more diverse population structure in the future. In the existing research, the balance between the construction of the life circle and the needs of the people in the life circle still needs to be further fulfilled. This paper is based on the city's multi-source large data set including 2018 AutoNavi POI (Point of Interests), OSM (OpenStreetMap) road network data and LandScan population data set, and evaluates the current status of Shanghai's 15min-CLC through the fusion of kernel density estimation, service area analysis and other statistical models and proposes relevant optimization suggestions. The results show that there are the following shortcomings: (1) From the perspective of different types of infrastructure service facilities, the spatial construction of Shanghai's overall life service facilities and shopping service facilities needs to be optimized. (2) From the perspective of comprehensive evaluation, the comprehensive service convenience of infrastructure service facilities in the downtown area is relatively high, while the comprehensive service convenience of urban infrastructure service facilities in the suburbs and outer suburbs is relatively low; The diversity of basic service facilities in the 15min-CLC in the downtown area is more consistent with the population distribution; However, in the peripheral areas of the urban area, too many infrastructure service facilities have been constructed. Based on the above shortcomings and the perspective of supply and demand matching, relevant optimization strategies are proposed in different regions and different types of infrastructure service facilities: (1) focus on the construction of basic service facilities in the urban fringe and urban-rural areas, improve the full coverage of the basic service facilities, and appropriately reduce the number of basic service facilities in the downtown area. (2) The development of community business models can be used to promote the development of new life service facilities and shopping service facilities. (3) Improve community medical institutions through facility function conversion, merger and reconstruction, etc. (4) Optimize the hierarchical basic service facility system and improve the population supporting facilities of basic service facilities in the 15min-CLC. This paper incorporates people's needs and concerns on the living environment into the 15min-CLC evaluation model, and uses Shanghai as an example to conduct research, summarizes the existing shortcomings, and proposes corresponding optimization strategies based on the matching of supply and demand. This article attempts to explore a replicable 15min-CLC planning model, so that it can be extended to the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, to provide reference for further research on the 15min-CLC, and to promote urban construction under the concept of sustainable development.

Modelling urban vibrancy with mobile phone and OpenStreetMap data.

The concept of urban vibrancy has become increasingly important in the study of cities. A vibrant urban environment is an area of a city with high levels of human activity and interactions. Traditionally, studying our cities and what makes them vibrant has been very difficult, due to challenges in data collection on urban environments and people's location and interactions. Here, we rely on novel sources of data to investigate how different features of our cities may relate to urban vibrancy. In particular, we explore whether there are any differences in which urban features make an environment vibrant for different age groups. We perform this quantitative analysis by extracting urban features from OpenStreetMap and the Italian census, and using them in spatial models to describe urban vibrancy. Our analysis shows a strong relationship between urban features and urban vibrancy, and particularly highlights the importance of third places, which are urban places offering opportunities for social interactions. Our findings provide evidence that a combination of mobile phone data with crowdsourced urban features can be used to better understand urban vibrancy.

The persistence of ancient settlements and urban sustainability.

We propose a dedicated research effort on the determinants of settlement persistence in the ancient world, with the potential to significantly advance the scientific understanding of urban sustainability today. Settlements (cities, towns, villages) are locations with two key attributes: They frame human interactions and activities in space, and they are where people dwell or live. Sustainability, in this case, focuses on the capacity of structures and functions of a settlement system (geography, demography, institutions) to provide for continuity of safe habitation. The 7,000-y-old experience of urbanism, as revealed by archaeology and history, includes many instances of settlements and settlement systems enduring, adapting to, or generating environmental, institutional, and technological changes. The field of urban sustainability lacks a firm scientific foundation for understanding the long durée, relying instead on narratives of collapse informed by limited case studies. We argue for the development of a new interdisciplinary research effort to establish scientific understanding of settlement and settlement system persistence. Such an effort would build upon the many fields that study human settlements to develop new theories and databases from the extensive documentation of ancient and premodern urban systems. A scientific foundation will generate novel insights to advance the field of urban sustainability.

Towards routine, city-scale accessibility metrics: Graph theoretic interpretations of pedestrian access using personalized pedestrian network analysis.

A wide range of analytical methods applied to urban systems address the modeling of pedestrian behavior. These include methods for multimodal trip service areas, access to businesses and public services, diverse metrics of "walkability", and the interpretation of location data. Infrastructure performance metrics in particular are an increasingly important means by which to understand and provide services to an urbanizing population. In contrast to traditional one-size-fits all analyses of street networks, as more detailed pedestrian-specific transportation network data becomes available, the opportunity arises to model the pedestrian network in terms of individual experiences. Here, we present a formalized and city-scale framework, personalized pedestrian network analysis (PPNA), for embedding and retrieving pedestrian experiences. PPNA enables evaluation of new, detailed, and open pedestrian transportation network data using a quantitative parameterization of a pedestrian's preferences and requirements, producing one or more weighted network(s) that provide a basis for posing varied urban pedestrian experience research questions, with four approaches provided as examples. We introduce normalized sidewalk reach (NSR), a walkshed-based metric of individual pedestrian access to the sidewalk network, and sidewalk reach quotient (SRQ), an estimate of inequity based on comparing the normalized sidewalk reach values for different pedestrian profiles at the same location. Next, we investigate a higher-order and combinatorial research question that enumerates pedestrian network-based amenity access between pedestrians. Finally, we present city-scale betweenness centrality calculations between unique pedestrian experiences, highlighting disagreement between pedestrians on the "importance" of various pedestrian network corridors. Taken together, this framework and examples represent a significant emerging opportunity to promote the embedding of more explicit and inclusive hypotheses of pedestrian experience into research on urban pedestrian accessibility, multimodal transportation modeling, urban network analysis, and a broader range of research questions.

Identification of urban land use efficiency by indicator-SDG 11.3.1.

Inefficiency in urban land use is one of the problems caused by rapid urbanization. The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) indicator 11.3.1 is designed to test urban land use efficiency. This study employed geospatial and statistical data to compute land use efficiencies from 1990 to 2015 with five 5-year and ten 15-year intervals in Wukang, center of Deqing County, China. A flowchart was designed to extract the built-up lands from multiple data sources. The produced built-up lands were demonstrated to provide good accuracy by constructing an error matrix between the extracted and manually interpreted built-up lands as classified and reference images, respectively. By using the model provided by UN metadata to calculate SDG 11.3.1, the land use efficiencies from 1990 to 2015 were identified in Wukang. Our results indicate that the land use efficiency in Deqing County center is lower than the average of cities around the world, primarily because our in-situ study focused on a county center with larger rural regions than urban areas. Over the long term, urban land use becomes denser as the population grows, which will have a positive impact on the sustainability of urban development. This work is helpful for the local government to balance urban land consumption and population growth.

Research on the relationship between Urban economic development level and urban spatial structure-A case study of two Chinese cities.

The characteristics of urban spatial structure and the objective evaluation of the development level of urban economy have always been the concern of urban researchers, However, the spatial relationship between urban spatial structure and urban economic development level is often deliberately ignored. Through the point of interest (POI), the identification framework is constructed, the spatial structure of the city is identified and evaluated, and the Geographically Weighted Regression analysis is carried out with the distribution of unit GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in this study. The research shows that Kunming and Guiyang are polycentric spatial structures and Kunming's structure is more significant. Kunming's economic level is generally higher than Guiyang, but the unit area cannot be compared. The city center will promote the development of the central area in this city, and the more urban centers are distributed within the geographical and spatial range, the greater contribution would have to economic development. In addition, the results of this study will have a positive impact on urban planning and construction, and will also provide a new perspective for the study of cities and related disciplines.

Using morphological attributes for the fast assessment of nutritional responses of Buddhist pine (Podocarpus macrophyllus [Thunb.] D. Don) seedlings to exponential fertilization.

Culturing slowly growing tree seedlings is a potential approach for managing the conflict between the increasing demand for ornamental stock and the decreasing area of farmlands due to urbanization. In this study, Buddhist pine (Podocarpus macrophyllus [Thunb.] D. Don) seedlings were raised in multishelves with light-emitting diode lighting in the spectrum of 17:75:8 (red:green:blue) at 190-320 µmol m-2 s-1 with controlled temperature and relative humidity at 19.5°C and 60%, respectively. Seedlings were fed by exponential fertilization (EF) (nitrogen [N]-phosphorus [P]2O5-K2O, 10-7-9) at eight rates of 0 (control), 20 (E20), 40 (E40), 60 (E60), 80 (E80), 100 (E100), 120 (E120), and 140 (E140) mg N seedling-1 for four months through 16 fertilizer applications. The nutritional responses of Buddhist pine seedlings can be identified and classified into various stages in response to increasing doses, up to and over 120 N seedling-1. Morphological traits, i.e., the green color index and leaf area (LA) obtained by digital analysis and the fine root growth, all remained constant in response to doses that induced steady nutrient loading. LA had a positive relationship with most of the nutritional parameters. A dose range between 60 and 120 mg N seedling-1 was recommended for the culture of Buddhist pine seedlings. At this range of fertilizer doses, measuring the leaf area through digital scanning can easily and rapidly indicate the inherent nutrient status of the seedlings.

Vegetation communities on commercial developments are heterogenous and determined by development and landscaping decisions, not socioeconomics.

In urban ecosystems, woody vegetation communities and the ecosystem functions and habitat they provide are largely controlled by humans. These communities are assembled during development, landscaping, and maintenance processes according to decisions made by human actors. While vegetation communities on residential land uses are increasingly well studied, these efforts generally have not extended to other land uses, including commercial property. To fill this gap, I surveyed tree and shrub communities on office developments located in Redmond and Bellevue, Washington, USA, and explored whether aggregated neighborhood and parcel scale socio-economic variables or variables describing the outcome of development and landscaping actions better explained variation in vegetation communities. I found that both tree and shrub communities on office developments are heterogenous, with sites characterized by native or ornamental vegetation. The heterogeneity I observed in vegetation communities within one land use suggests that different ecosystem functions, habitat quality, and habitat quantities are provided on office developments. Greater provision of e.g. native conifer habitat is possible using currently existing developments as models. Additionally, the outcome of development and landscaping decisions explained more variation in community composition than the socio-economic factors found significant on residential property. Together with previous research showing that residential property owner attitudes and actions are more important than socio-economic descriptors, my results suggest that individual motivators, including intended audience, may be the primary determinant of urban vegetation communities. Future urban ecology research should consider sampling the vegetation gradient within land uses, better understanding individual motivation for vegetation management, and creating models of the urban ecosystems that account for alternate decision pathways on different land uses.

Crowd-sourced cognitive mapping: A new way of displaying people's cognitive perception of urban space.

By utilizing cognitive mapping and leveraging georeferenced text data, this paper aims to suggest a new visualization method that combines the advantages of both conventional and state-of-the-art research techniques to depict the collective identity of place in a single image. The study addressed two research questions: (1) Can crowd-sourced text data be utilized in representing place identity? (2) Can collective place identity be expressed in the form of a cognitive map? By confirming that text data gathered from social media effectively demonstrate people's behaviors and perceptions related to places, we propose a novel method to create a visual representation of urban identity-a "crowd-sourced cognitive map". In particular, to improve the conventional cognitive mapping method to depict the collective identity of a city, we draw cognitive maps of Bundang and Ilsan developed in the 1990s, as well as Songdo and Dongtan developed in the 2000s, just outside of the administrative boundaries of Seoul in Korea, through a computational method based on crowd-sourced opinions collected from social media. We open the possibility for the use of social media text data to capture the identity of cities and suggest a graphical image through which people without prior information could also easily apprehend the overall image of a city. The work in this paper is expected to provide a methodological technique for appropriate decision-making and the evaluation of urban identity to shape a more unique and imageable city.

Using a theory-driven creative process to design a peri-urban on-site sanitation quality improvement intervention.

BACKGROUND: Behavior change interventions have been developed by drawing from many different theories using design processes of varying specificity. We describe the development of a behavior change intervention to improve on-site peri-urban sanitation quality in Lusaka, Zambia using the Behavior Centered Design (BCD) framework to explain the results of the process applied to improving the quality of shared peri-urban sanitation and compare them to similar interventions. METHODS: We used the BCD behavioral determinants model to synthesize the data from our literature review and formative research. Then, we partnered with creative professionals using a design process to develop a theory-driven on-site peri-urban sanitation intervention. Particular attention was paid to the implications of using BCD for intervention development on improving its effectiveness, increasing the contributions to knowledge for other behaviors and settings, and advancing the discipline of applied behavioral science. RESULTS: Based on findings from a literature review and formative research, we designed an intervention to encourage landlords to improve their toilets by making them more accessible, desirable, hygienic, and sustainable. The intervention involved landlords meeting in facilitated groups every 2 weeks with individual follow-up after each meeting. The meetings presented surprising "hidden camera"-style videos to reveal tenants' perspectives, used participatory activities to help landlords reevaluate the benefits they would derive from improving sanitation on their plots, and provided practical guidance and mechanisms to facilitate the performance of construction and cleaning behaviors. CONCLUSIONS: Using the BCD framework provided an easy-to-follow intervention design process. The resulting intervention is highly creative and multi-faceted, with each element having a theoretical role in an explicit theory of change. The development of this theory-driven intervention advances applied behavioral science by facilitating evaluation of each of the behavior change techniques and the overall delivery mechanism hypothesized to change the target behaviors. This informs the adaptation of these findings to improving on-site sanitation in other settings and the iterative development of the BCD model, which can be used to more effectively change other behaviors.

Making space for 'the social': connecting sociology and professional practices in urban lighting design.

Lighting is increasingly recognized as a significant social intervention by both lighting professionals and academic social scientists. However, what counts as 'the social' is diverse and contested, with consequences for what kind of 'social' is performed or invented. Based on a long-term research programme, we argue that collaboration between sociologists and lighting professionals requires negotiating discourses and practices of 'the social'. This paper explores the quality and kinds of spaces made for 'the social' in professional practices and academic collaborations, focusing on two case studies of urban lighting that demonstrate how the space of 'the social' is constrained and impoverished by an institutionalized division between technical and aesthetic lighting. We consider the potential role of sociologists in making more productive spaces for 'the social' in urban design, as part of the central sociological task of 'inventing the social' (Marres, Guggenheim and Wilkie 2018) in the process of studying it.

Health Benefits of Physical Activity Related to an Urban Riverside Regeneration.

The promotion of physical activity through better urban design is one pathway by which health and well-being improvements can be achieved. This study aimed to quantify health and health-related economic impacts associated with physical activity in an urban riverside park regeneration project in Barcelona, Spain. We used data from Barcelona local authorities and meta-analysis assessing physical activity and health outcomes to develop and apply the "Blue Active Tool". We estimated park user health impacts in terms of all-cause mortality, morbidity (ischemic heart disease; ischemic stroke; type 2 diabetes; cancers of the colon and breast; and dementia), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and health-related economic impacts. We estimated that 5753 adult users visited the riverside park daily and performed different types of physical activity (walking for leisure or to/from work, cycling, and running). Related to the physical activity conducted on the riverside park, we estimated an annual reduction of 7.3 deaths (95% CI: 5.4; 10.2), and 6.2 cases of diseases (95% CI: 2.0; 11.6). This corresponds to 11.9 DALYs (95% CI: 3.4; 20.5) and an annual health-economic impact of 23.4 million euros (95% CI: 17.2 million; 32.8 million). The urban regeneration intervention of this riverside park provides health and health-related economic benefits to the population using the infrastructure.

Mortality from Homicides in Slums in the City of Belo Horizonte, Brazil: An Evaluation of the Impact of a Re-Urbanization Project.

Background: Homicide rates in Brazil are among the highest worldwide. Although not exclusive to large Brazilian cities, homicides find their most important determinants in cities' slums. In the last decade, an urban renewal process has been initiated in the city of Belo Horizonte, in Brazil. Named Vila Viva project, it includes structuring urban interventions such as urban renewal, social development actions and land regularization in the slums of the city. This study evaluates the project's effect on homicide rates according to time and interventions. Methods: Homicide rates were analyzed comparing five slums with interventions (S1⁻S5) to five grouped non-intervened slums (S0), with similar socioeconomic characteristics from 2002 to 2012. Poisson regression model estimates the effect of time of observation and the effect of time of exposure (in years) to a completed intervention, besides the overall risk ratio (RR). Results: Using the time of observation in years, homicide rates decreased in the studied period and even more if considered cumulative time of exposure to a completed intervention for S1, S2, S3 and S4, but not for S5. Conclusions: Although the results of the effect of the interventions are not repeated in all slums, a downward trend in homicide rates has been found, which is connected to the interventions. New approaches could be necessary in order to verify the nexus between slum renewal projects and the reduction of homicide rates.

Improving the soundscape quality of urban areas exposed to aircraft noise by adding moving water and vegetation.

Research shows that the sight of trees and the sound of moving water improve the soundscape quality of outdoor spaces exposed to road traffic noise. Effects are attributed to non-energetic masking, visual attentional distortion, and congruence between sight and hearing. However, there is no literature on such effects for aircraft noise. Aircraft noise varies from other traffic sources, i.e., in terms temporal variability, duration, and spectral composition, complicating the application of findings without further research. In a virtual reality experiment reported in this article, participants were asked to rate scenarios with different sound levels of flyovers, urban typologies, vegetation, and/ or water features. The results showed a significant improvement of the soundscape quality when (1) vegetation and (2) moving water were present, and especially when (3) vegetation and moving water were presented simultaneously, especially for residential areas in terms of the relative change. Moving water also reduced the saliency of aircraft flyovers significantly, changing the constellation of fore- and background sounds. Moving water raised the perceived audibility of the most dominant sound source too, which could be attributed to non-energetic masking effects. The findings of this study indicate that soundscape strategies can complement noise abatement in areas prone to aircraft noise.

Busy Streets Theory: The Effects of Community-engaged Greening on Violence.

Lack of maintenance on vacant neighborhood lots is associated with higher levels of depression, anxiety, and stress for nearby residents. Overgrown grasses and dense brush provide hiding spots for criminals and space to conduct illicit activities. This study builds upon previous research by investigating greening programs that engage community members to conduct routine maintenance on vacant lots within their neighborhoods. The Clean & Green program is a community-based solution that facilitates resident-driven routine maintenance of vacant lots in a midsized, Midwestern city. We use mixed effects regression to compare assault and violent crime counts on streets where vacant lot(s) are maintained by community members (N = 216) versus streets where vacant lots were left alone (N = 446) over a 5-year timeframe (2009-2013). Street segments with vacant lots maintained through the Clean & Green program had nearly 40% fewer assaults and violent crimes than street segments with vacant, abandoned lots, which held across 4 years with a large sample and efforts to test counterfactual explanations. Community-engaged greening programs may not only provide a solution to vacant lot maintenance, but also work as a crime prevention or reduction strategy. Engaging the community to maintain vacant lots in their neighborhood reduces costs and may increase the sustainability of the program.

Urban green area provides refuge for native small mammal biodiversity in a rapidly expanding city in Ghana.

Urbanization is a key driver of global biodiversity loss. Although sub-Saharan African countries are experiencing unprecedented urbanization and urban expansion, very little is known about how this impacts tropical biodiversity. Here, we assessed the effects of urban expansion and urban green space on local small mammal species diversity in Accra, Ghana. We surveyed small mammals in the University of Ghana botanical garden, an urban green area (UGA) and adjoining built-up environment (BE) and compared the results with baseline data (BLD) collected when large areas of the current city still remained mostly undeveloped. The methodology involved live-trapping using Sherman collapsible live-traps. Our data showed higher small mammal abundance and diversity in the UGA than BE. Similarity of species composition was higher between UGA and BLD than between BE and BLD. The small mammal species captured in BE (the rodents Mastomys erythroleucus, Rattus rattus, and Arvicanthis rufinus, and the shrew Crocidura olivieri) are known to easily adapt to human-modified landscapes. Our results suggest that urbanization negatively influenced the abundance, diversity, and community composition of small mammals. Efforts should be directed towards the integration of urban green areas into urban land development planning in developing countries in order to conserve local wildlife and ecological services that enhance the quality of urban life.

Evaluating the impact of improvements in urban green space on older adults' physical activity and wellbeing: protocol for a natural experimental study.

BACKGROUND: Creating or improving urban green space has the potential to be an effective, sustainable and far-reaching way to increase physical activity and improve other aspects of wellbeing in the population. However, there is a dearth of well-conducted natural experimental studies examining the causal effect of changing urban green space on physical activity and wellbeing. This is especially true in older adults and in the United Kingdom. This paper describes a natural experimental study to evaluate the effect of four small-scale urban street greening interventions on older adults' physical activity and wellbeing over a 1-year period, relative to eight matched comparison sites. All sites are located in deprived urban neighbourhoods in Greater Manchester, United Kingdom. METHODS: Components of the interventions include tree and flower planting, and artificial tree decorations. Eight unimproved comparison sites were selected based on a systematic process of matching using several known objective and subjective environmental correlates of physical activity in older adults. The outcome measures are physical activity and two other behavioural indicators of wellbeing (Connect: connecting with other people; and Take Notice: taking notice of the environment), collected using a newly developed observation tool. The primary outcome is Take Notice behaviour due to largest effects on this behaviour being anticipated from improvements in the aesthetic quality of green space at the intervention sites. Baseline data collection occurred in September 2017 before the interventions were installed in November 2017. Follow-up data collection will be repeated in February/ March 2018 (6 months) and September 2018 (12 months). DISCUSSION: The present study permits a rare opportunity to evaluate the causal effects of small-scale changes in urban green space in an understudied population and setting. Although the interventions are expected to have small effects on the outcomes, the present study contributes to developing natural experiment methodology in this field by addressing key methodological weaknesses causing high risk of bias in previous natural experimental studies. Key improvements to reduce risk of bias in the present study are rigorous matching of multiple comparison sites and appropriate statistical control of key confounders. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Retrospectively registered with study ID NCT03575923 . Date of registration: 3 July 2018.

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics.

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel's Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species' available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to 'errors' (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario.