Is there a relationship between forest fires and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon?

The Brazilian Legal Amazon is an extensive territory in which different factors influence the dynamics of forest fires. Currently, the Brazilian government has two tools in the public domain and free of charge, PRODES and BDQueimadas, to monitor and make decisions to combat deforestation and forest fires. This work aimed to evaluate and correlate the forest fire alerts and deforestation in the Amazon Forest in the state of Pará. The analyses were based on carrying out a diagnosis of forest fires and deforestation; the behavior of forest fires and deforestation over the last twenty years; the statistical relationship between deforestation and forest fires and their spatialization. This work identified that Pará is the state in the Legal Amazon with the highest occurrence of forest fires and deforestation. Deforestation in the four-year period Jan/2003-Dec/2006 showed a higher rate compared to the four-year periods Jan/2011-Dec/2018. A high correlation was found between forest fire alerts and increases in deforestation. There is a spatial relationship between cities with greater increases in deforestation and high numbers of fire alerts. In relation to the occurrence of forest fires and deforestation, the south of the state was the most critical region and the north had lower rates.

Impact of the 2022 New Mexico, US wildfires on air quality and health.

The 2022 wildfires in New Mexico, United States, were unparalleled compared to past wildfires in the state in both their scale and intensity, resulting in poor air quality and a catastrophic loss of habitat and livelihood. Among all wildfires in New Mexico in 2022, six wildfires were selected for our study based on the size of the burn area and their proximity to populated areas. These fires accounted for approximately 90 % of the total burn area in New Mexico in 2022. We used a regional chemical transport model and data-fusion technique to quantify the contribution of these six wildfires (April 6 to August 22) on particulate matter (PM2.5: diameter ≤ 2.5 µm) and ozone (O3) concentrations, as well as the associated health impacts from short-term exposure. We estimated that these six wildfires emitted 152 thousand tons of PM2.5 and 287 thousand tons of volatile organic compounds to the atmosphere. We estimated that the average daily wildfire smoke PM2.5 across New Mexico was 0.3 µg/m3, though 1 h maximum exceeded 120 µg/m3 near Santa Fe. Average wildfire smoke maximum daily average 8-h O3 (MDA8-O3) contribution was 0.2 ppb during the study period over New Mexico. However, over the state 1 h maximum smoke O3 exceeded 60 ppb in some locations near Santa Fe. Estimated all-cause excess mortality attributable to short term exposure to wildfire PM2.5 and MDA8-O3 from these six wildfires were 18 (95 % Confidence Interval (CI), 15-21) and 4 (95 % CI: 3-6) deaths. Additionally, we estimate that wildfire PM2.5 was responsible for 171 (95 %: 124-217) excess cases of asthma emergency department visits. Our findings underscore the impact of wildfires on air quality and human health risks, which are anticipated to intensify with global warming, even as local anthropogenic emissions decline.

Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system.

The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern1-3. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system1. Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.

Increased Amazon carbon emissions mainly from decline in law enforcement.

The Amazon forest carbon sink is declining, mainly as a result of land-use and climate change1-4. Here we investigate how changes in law enforcement of environmental protection policies may have affected the Amazonian carbon balance between 2010 and 2018 compared with 2019 and 2020, based on atmospheric CO2 vertical profiles5,6, deforestation7 and fire data8, as well as infraction notices related to illegal deforestation9. We estimate that Amazonia carbon emissions increased from a mean of 0.24 ± 0.08 PgC year-1 in 2010-2018 to 0.44 ± 0.10 PgC year-1 in 2019 and 0.52 ± 0.10 PgC year-1 in 2020 (± uncertainty). The observed increases in deforestation were 82% and 77% (94% accuracy) and burned area were 14% and 42% in 2019 and 2020 compared with the 2010-2018 mean, respectively. We find that the numbers of notifications of infractions against flora decreased by 30% and 54% and fines paid by 74% and 89% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Carbon losses during 2019-2020 were comparable with those of the record warm El Niño (2015-2016) without an extreme drought event. Statistical tests show that the observed differences between the 2010-2018 mean and 2019-2020 are unlikely to have arisen by chance. The changes in the carbon budget of Amazonia during 2019-2020 were mainly because of western Amazonia becoming a carbon source. Our results indicate that a decline in law enforcement led to increases in deforestation, biomass burning and forest degradation, which increased carbon emissions and enhanced drying and warming of the Amazon forests.

How deregulation, drought and increasing fire impact Amazonian biodiversity.

Biodiversity contributes to the ecological and climatic stability of the Amazon Basin1,2, but is increasingly threatened by deforestation and fire3,4. Here we quantify these impacts over the past two decades using remote-sensing estimates of fire and deforestation and comprehensive range estimates of 11,514 plant species and 3,079 vertebrate species in the Amazon. Deforestation has led to large amounts of habitat loss, and fires further exacerbate this already substantial impact on Amazonian biodiversity. Since 2001, 103,079-189,755 km2 of Amazon rainforest has been impacted by fires, potentially impacting the ranges of 77.3-85.2% of species that are listed as threatened in this region5. The impacts of fire on the ranges of species in Amazonia could be as high as 64%, and greater impacts are typically associated with species that have restricted ranges. We find close associations between forest policy, fire-impacted forest area and their potential impacts on biodiversity. In Brazil, forest policies that were initiated in the mid-2000s corresponded to reduced rates of burning. However, relaxed enforcement of these policies in 2019 has seemingly begun to reverse this trend: approximately 4,253-10,343 km2 of forest has been impacted by fire, leading to some of the most severe potential impacts on biodiversity since 2009. These results highlight the critical role of policy enforcement in the preservation of biodiversity in the Amazon.

Autoritarismo e resistência indígena no Brasil / Authoritarianism and the indigenous resistance in Brazil / Autoritarismo y resistencia indígena en Brasil

Esta nota resulta de reflexões iniciais sobre a atual conjuntura brasileira no que tange aos desafios postos aos povos indígenas, diante de um governo declaradamente anti-indígena. Considerando a perspectiva histórica da política indigenista brasileira, observam-se elementos que nos instigam a analisar a relação do Estado com os povos originários e a capacidade que o movimento indígena brasileiro tem de articulação visando à resistência. São necessários saberes e práticas que exigem, cada vez mais, o rompimento com o pensamento autoritário e colonialista tão presente no contexto brasileiro.

This text is product of the initial attempts to think about the current Brazilian conjuncture regarding the challenges posed to indigenous peoples since they are confronted with a government who have declared to be anti-indigenous. From the historical perspective of Brazilian governmental policy towards indigenous, we observe elements that push us to analyze the relationship of the State with the indigenous peoples and the Brazilian indigenous movement' capacity for interacting to resist. Knowledge and practices that demand more and more a break with the authoritarian and colonialist thinking so present in the Brazilian context are indispensable.

Esta nota resulta de reflexiones iniciales a cerca de la coyuntura brasileña actual por lo que se refiere a los desafíos que los pueblos indígenas tienen que enfrentar frente a un Gobierno que expresa clara y determinadamente ser antiindígena. Observando la perspectiva histórica de la política indigenista brasileña, hay elementos que instigan el análisis de la relación del Estado con los pueblos indígenas y la capacidad que el movimiento indígena brasileño tiene de articularse para resistir. Son necesarios saberes y prácticas que exigen cada vez más el rompimiento con el pensamiento autoritario y colonialista tan presente en el contexto brasileño.

High-resolution inventory of mercury emissions from biomass burning in tropical continents during 2001-2017.

Mercury emissions from biomass burning contribute significantly to the atmospheric mercury budget and the interannual variation of mercury concentrations in the troposphere. This study developed a high-resolution (0.1°â€¯× 0.1°) monthly inventory of mercury emissions from biomass burning across five land types in the tropical continents (Central and South America, Africa, and South and Southeast Asia) during 2001-2017. The inventory estimates of mercury emissions from biomass burning are based on the newly released MCD64A1 Version 6 Burned Area data product, satellite and observational data of biomass density, and spatial and temporal variable combustion factors. Results from the inventory demonstrated that during 2001-2017, the average annual mercury emissions from biomass burning in tropical continents was 497 Mg and ranged from 289 Mg to 681 Mg. Forest fires were the largest contributor, accounting for 61% (300 Mg) of the total mercury emissions from biomass burning, followed by fires in woody savanna/shrubland (30%, 151 Mg), savanna/grassland (7%, 35 Mg), peatland (1%, 6 Mg), and cropland (1%, 5 Mg). However, these proportions varied between the continents; in the Americas and Asia, the largest biomass burning emissions came from forest fires, and in Africa the largest emissions were from fires woody savanna/shrubland. Between the three continents, Africa released 41% of the mercury emissions from biomass burning (202 Mg year-1), Asia released 31% (154 Mg year-1), and the Americas released 28% (141 Mg year-1). The total mercury emissions from biomass burning in these tropical continents exhibited strong interannual variations from 2001 to 2017, with peak emissions in March and August to September, and forest fires were the primary land type controlling the interannual variations.

Direct and indirect climate controls predict heterogeneous early-mid 21st century wildfire burned area across western and boreal North America.

Predicting wildfire under future conditions is complicated by complex interrelated drivers operating across large spatial scales. Annual area burned (AAB) is a useful index of global wildfire activity. Current and antecedent seasonal climatic conditions, and the timing of snowpack melt, have been suggested as important drivers of AAB. As climate warms, seasonal climate and snowpack co-vary in intricate ways, influencing fire at continental and sub-continental scales. We used independent records of seasonal climate and snow cover duration (last date of permanent snowpack, LDPS) and cell-based Structural Equation Models (SEM) to separate direct (climatic) and indirect (snow cover) effects on relative changes in AAB under future climatic scenarios across western and boreal North America. To isolate seasonal climate variables with the greatest effect on AAB, we ran multiple regression models of log-transformed AAB on seasonal climate variables and LDPS. We used the results of multiple regressions to project future AAB using GCM ensemble climate variables and LDPS, and validated model predictions with recent AAB trends. Direct influences of spring and winter temperatures on AAB are larger and more widespread than the indirect effect mediated by changes in LDPS in most areas. Despite significant warming trends and reductions in snow cover duration, projected responses of AAB to early-mid 21st century are heterogeneous across the continent. Changes in AAB range from strongly increasing (one order of magnitude increases in AAB) to moderately decreasing (more than halving of baseline AAB). Annual wildfire area burned in coming decades is likely to be highly geographically heterogeneous, reflecting interacting regional and seasonal climate drivers of fire occurrence and spread.