Australian Headache Epidemiology Data (AHEAD): a pilot study to assess sampling and engagement methodology for a nationwide population-based survey.

BACKGROUND: There are no robust population-based Australian data on prevalence and attributed burden of migraine and medication-overuse headache (MOH) data. In this pilot cross-sectional study, we aimed to capture the participation rate, preferred response method, and acceptability of self-report questionnaires to inform the conduct of a future nationwide migraine/MOH epidemiological study. METHODS: We developed a self-report questionnaire, available in hard-copy and online, including modules from the Headache-Attributed Restriction, Disability, Social Handicap and Impaired Participation (HARDSHIP) questionnaire, the Eq. 5D (quality of life), and enquiry into treatment gaps. Study invitations were mailed to 20,000 randomly selected households across Australia's two most populous states. The household member who most recently had a birthday and was aged ≥ 18 years was invited to participate, and could do so by returning a hard-copy questionnaire via reply-paid mail, or by entering responses directly into an online platform. RESULTS: The participation rate was 5.0% (N = 1,000). Participants' median age was 60 years (IQR 44-71 years), and 64.7% (n = 647) were female. Significantly more responses were received from areas with relatively older populations and middle-level socioeconomic status. Hard copy was the more commonly chosen response method (n = 736). Females and younger respondents were significantly more likely to respond online than via hard-copy. CONCLUSIONS: This pilot study indicates that alternative methodology is needed to achieve satisfactory engagement in a future nationwide migraine/MOH epidemiological study, for example through inclusion of migraine screening questions in well-resourced, interview-based national health surveys that are conducted regularly by government agencies. Meanwhile, additional future research directions include defining and addressing treatment gaps to improve migraine awareness, and minimise under-diagnosis and under-treatment.

Future Burden of Ischemic Stroke in Australia: Impact on Health Outcomes between 2019 and 2038.

BACKGROUND: Projections of the future burden of ischemic stroke (IS) has not been extensively reported for the Australian population; the availability of such data would assist in health policy planning, clinical guideline updates, and public health. METHODS: First, we estimated the lifetime risk of IS (from age 40 to 100 years) using a multistate life table model. Second, a dynamic multistate model was constructed to project the burden of IS for the whole Australian population aged between 40 and 100 years over a 20-year period (2019-2038). Data for the study were primarily sourced from a large, representative Victorian linked dataset based on the Victorian Admitted Episode Dataset and National Death Index. The model projected prevalent and incident cases of nonfatal IS, fatal IS, and years of life lived (YLL) with and without IS. The YLL outcome was discounted by 5% annually; we varied the discounting rate in scenario analyses. RESULTS: The lifetime risk of IS from age 40 years was estimated as 15.5% for males and 14.0% for females in 2018. From 2019 to 2038, 644,208 Australians were projected to develop incident IS (564,922 nonfatal and 79,287 fatal). By 2038, the model projected there would be 358,534 people with prevalent IS, 35,554 people with incident nonfatal IS and 5,338 people with fatal IS, a 14.2% (44,535), 72.9% (14,988), and 106.3% (2,751) increase compared to 2019 estimations, respectively. Projected YLL (with a 5% discount rate) accrued by the Australian population were 174,782,672 (84,251,360 in males and 90,531,312 in females), with 4,053,794 YLL among people with IS (2,320,513 in males, 1,733,281 in females). CONCLUSION: The burden of IS was projected to increase between 2019 and 2038 in Australia. The outcomes of the model provide important information for decision-makers to design strategies to reduce stroke burden.

Current and Future Cost Burden of Ischemic Stroke in Australia: Dynamic Model.

BACKGROUND: Stroke remains one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Australia. The objective of this study was to estimate the current and future cost burden of ischemic stroke (IS) in Australia. METHOD: First, chronic management costs following IS were derived for all people aged ≥ 30 years discharged from a public or private hospital in Victoria, Australia between July 2012 and June 2017 (n = 34 471). These costs were then used to project total costs following IS (combination of acute event and chronic management cost) over a 20-year period (2019-2038) for people aged between 30 and 99 years in Australia using a dynamic multistate lifetable model. Data for the dynamic model were sourced from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset (VAED) and supplemented with other published data. RESULT: The estimated annual total chronic management cost following IS was 13 525 Australian dollars (AUD) per person (95%CI: AUD 13 380, AUD 13 670) for cohorts in the VAED between July 2012 and June 2017. The annual chronic management cost was estimated to decline following IS. The highest cost was incurred in the first year of follow-up post-IS (AUD 14 309 per person) and declined to AUD 9 776 in the sixth year of follow-up post-IS. The total healthcare cost for people aged 30-99 years was projected to be AUD 47.7 billion (95% UI: AUD 44.6 billion, AUD 51.0 billion) over the 20-year period (2019-2038) Australia-wide, of which 91.3% (AUD 43.6 billion) was attributed to chronic management costs and the remaining 8.7% (AUD 4.2 billion) were due to acute IS events. CONCLUSION: IS has and will continue to have a considerable financial impact in the next two decades on the Australian healthcare system. Our estimated and projected cost burden following IS provides important information for decision making in relation to IS.

The cost associated with the development of the antimicrobial stewardship program in the adult general medicine setting in Qatar.

Objective: To estimate the economic impact of the developed antimicrobial stewardship program (ASP) versus the preliminary ASP use, in the adults' general medicine settings in Qatar. Methods: Patient records were retrospectively reviewed during two periods: preliminary ASP was defined as the 12 months following ASP implementation (i.e. May 2015-April 2016), and developed ASP was defined as the last 12 months of a 5-year ASP implementation in Hamad Medical Corporation (HMC) (i.e. February 2019-January 2020). The economic impact was the overall cost savings in resource use, including operational costs, plus the cost avoidance associated with ASP. Results: A total of 500 patients were included in the study. The operational costs decreased with the developed ASP. Whereas antimicrobial consumption and resource utilisation, and their associated costs, appear to have declined with the developed ASP, with a cost saving of QAR458 (US$125) per 100-patient beds, the avoided cost was negative, by QAR4,807 (US$1,317) per 100-patient beds, adding to a total QAR4,224 (US$1,160) increase in the 100-patient beds cost after ASP development. Conclusions: Despite that the developed ASP attained a total cost saving QAR458 (US$125) per 100-patient beds, the avoided cost was QAR-4,807 (US$-1,317) per 100-patient beds, which exceeded the cost savings achieved.

Ambient PM2.5 and productivity-adjusted life years lost in Brazil: a national population-based study.

Enormous health burden has been associated with air pollution and its effects continue to grow. However, the impact of air pollution on labour productivity at the population level is still unknown. This study assessed the association between premature death due to PM2.5 exposure and the loss of productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs), in Brazil. We applied a novel variant of the difference-in-difference (DID) approach to assess the association. Daily all-cause mortality data in Brazil were collected from 2000-2019. The PALYs lost increased by 5.11% (95% CI: 4.10-6.13%), for every 10 µg/m3 increase in the 2-day moving average of PM2.5. A total of 9,219,995 (95% CI: 7,491,634-10,921,141) PALYs lost and US$ 268.05 (95% CI: 217.82-317.50) billion economic costs were attributed to PM2.5 exposure, corresponding to 7.37% (95% CI: 5.99-8.73%) of the total PALYs lost due to premature death. This study also found that 5,005,306 PALYs could be avoided if the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guideline (AQG) level was met. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that ambient PM2.5 exposure is associated with a considerable labour productivity burden relating to premature death in Brazil, while over half of the burden could be prevented if the WHO AQG was met. The findings highlight the need to reduce ambient PM2.5 levels and provide strong evidence for the development of strategies to mitigate the economic impacts of air pollution.

Work productivity, quality of life, and care needs: An unfolding epilepsy burden revealed in the Australian Epilepsy Project pilot study.

OBJECTIVE: Epilepsy is a common and serious neurological disorder. This cross-sectional analysis addresses the burden of epilepsy at different stages of the disease. METHODS: This pilot study is embedded within the Australian Epilepsy Project (AEP), aiming to provide epilepsy support through a national network of dedicated sites. For this analysis, adults aged 18-65 years with first unprovoked seizure (FUS), newly diagnosed epilepsy (NDE), or drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) were recruited between February-August 2022. Baseline clinicodemographic data were collected from the participants who completed questionnaires to assess their quality of life (QOLIE-31, EQ-5D-5L), work productivity (Work Productivity and Activity Impairment [WPAI]), and care needs. Univariate analysis and multivariate regression was performed. RESULTS: 172 participants formed the study cohort (median age 34, interquartile range [IQR]: 26-45), comprising FUS (n = 44), NDE (n = 53), and DRE (n = 75). Mean QOLIE-31 score was 56 (standard deviation [SD] ± 18) and median EQ-5D-5L score was 0.77 (IQR: 0.56-0.92). QOLIE-31 but not EQ-5D-5L scores were significantly lower in the DRE group compared to FUS and NDE groups (p < 0.001). Overall, 64.5% of participants participated in paid work, with fewer DRE (52.0%) compared with FUS (76.7%) and NDE (72.5%) (p < 0.001). Compared to those not in paid employment, those in paid employment had significantly higher quality of life scores (p < 0.001). Almost 5.8% of participants required formal care (median 20 h/week, IQR: 12-55) and 17.7% required informal care (median 16 h/week, IQR: 7-101). SIGNIFICANCE: Epilepsy is associated with a large burden in terms of quality of life, productivity and care needs. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: This is a pilot study from the Australian Epilepsy Project (AEP). It reports health economic data for adults of working age who live with epilepsy. It found that people with focal drug-resistant epilepsy had lower quality of life scores and were less likely to participate in paid employment compared to people with new diagnosis epilepsy. This study provides important local data regarding the burden of epilepsy and will help researchers in the future to measure the impact of the AEP on important personal and societal health economic outcomes.

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Strategies for Familial Hypercholesterolaemia: An Updated Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to systematically synthesise the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies to detect heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (FH). METHODS: We searched seven databases from inception to 2 February , 2023, for eligible cost-effective analysis (CEA) that evaluated screening strategies for FH versus the standard care for FH detection. Independent reviewers performed the screening, data extraction and quality evaluation. Cost results were adapted to 2022 US dollars (US$) to facilitate comparisons between studies using the same screening strategies. Cost-effectiveness thresholds were based on the original study criteria. RESULTS: A total of 21 studies evaluating 62 strategies were included in this review, most of the studies (95%) adopted a healthcare perspective in the base case, and majority were set in high-income countries. Strategies analysed included cascade screening (23 strategies), opportunistic screening (13 strategies), systematic screening (11 strategies) and population-wide screening (15 strategies). Most of the strategies relied on genetic diagnosis for case ascertainment. The most common comparator was no screening, but some studies compared the proposed strategy versus current screening strategies or versus the best next alternative. Six studies evaluated screening in children while the remaining were targeted at adults. From a healthcare perspective, cascade screening was cost-effective in 78% of the studies [cost-adapted incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) ranged from dominant to 2022 US$ 104,877], opportunistic screening in 85% (ICERs from US$4959 to US$41,705), systematic screening in 80% (ICERs from US$2763 to US$69,969) and population-wide screening in 60% (ICERs from US$1484 to US$223,240). The most common driver of ICER identified in the sensitivity analysis was the long-term cost of lipid-lowering treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Based on reported willingness to pay thresholds for each setting, most CEA studies concluded that screening for FH compared with no screening was cost-effective, regardless of the screening strategy. Cascade screening resulted in the largest health benefits per person tested.

The Burden of Type 2 Diabetes on the Productivity and Economy in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Life Table Modelling Analysis from a South African Perspective.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is rapidly increasing in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). T2D increases the risk of premature death and reduces quality of life and work productivity. This population life table modelling analysis evaluated the impact of T2D in terms of productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) on the South African working-age population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Life table modelling was employed to simulate the follow-up of individuals aged 20-65 with T2D in South Africa (SA). Two life table models were developed to simulate health outcomes for a SA cohort with and without diabetes. The difference in the number of deaths, years of life lost (YLL), and PALYs lost between the two cohorts represented the burden of diabetes. Scenarios were simulated in which the proportions of gross domestic productivity (GDP), productivity indices, labour force dropout, and mortality risk trends were adjusted to lower and upper uncertainty bounds. Data were sourced from the International Diabetes Federation, Statistics SA, and both publicly available and published sources. We utilised the World Health Organization (WHO) standard annual discount rate of 3% for YLL and PALYs. RESULTS: In 2019, an estimated 9.5% (7.68% men and 11.37% women) or 3.2 million total working-age people had T2D in SA. Simulated follow-up until retirement predicted 669,427 excess mortality, a loss of 6.2 million years of life (9.3%) and 13 million PALYs (30.6%) in SA. On average, this resulted in 3.1 PALYs lost per person. Based on the GDP per full-time employee in 2019, the PALYs loss equated to US$223 billion, or US$69,875 per person. CONCLUSIONS: This study emphasises the significant impact of T2D on society and the economy. Relatively modest T2D prevention and treatment management enhancement could lead to substantial economic benefits in SA.

Lipid-Lowering Strategies for Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease in the UK: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

AIM: We aimed to assess the cost effectiveness of four different lipid-lowering strategies for primary prevention of coronary heart disease initiated at ages 30, 40, 50, and 60 years from the UK National Health Service perspective. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model comparing the initiation of a lipid-lowering strategy to current standard of care (control). We included 458,692 participants of the UK Biobank study. The four lipid-lowering strategies were: (1) low/moderate-intensity statins; (2) high-intensity statins; (3) low/moderate-intensity statins and ezetimibe; and (4) inclisiran. The main outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for each lipid-lowering strategy compared to the control, with 3.5% annual discounting using 2021 GBP (£); incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were compared to the UK willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000-£30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. RESULTS: The most effective intervention, low/moderate-intensity statins and ezetimibe, was projected to lead to a gain in quality-adjusted life-years of 0.067 per person initiated at 30 and 0.026 at age 60 years. Initiating therapy at 40 years of age was the most cost effective for all lipid-lowering strategies, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £2553 (95% uncertainty interval: 1270, 3969), £4511 (3138, 6401), £11,107 (8655, 14,508), and £1,406,296 (1,121,775, 1,796,281) per quality-adjusted life-year gained for strategies 1-4, respectively. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were lower for male individuals (vs female individuals) and for people with higher (vs lower) low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol. For example, low/moderate-intensity statin use initiated from age 40 years had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £5891 (3822, 9348), £2174 (772, 4216), and was dominant (i.e. cost saving; -2,760, 350) in female individuals with a low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol of ≥ 3.0, ≥ 4.0 and ≥ 5.0 mmol/L, respectively. Inclisiran was not cost effective in any sub-group at its current price. CONCLUSIONS: Low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol lowering from early ages is a more cost-effective strategy than late intervention and cost effectiveness increased with the increasing lifetime risk of coronary heart disease.

Use of secondary prevention medications in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas: an analysis of 41 925 myocardial infarctions in Australia.

AIMS: People in remote areas may have more difficulty accessing healthcare following myocardial infarction (MI) than people in metropolitan areas. We determined whether remoteness was associated with initial and 12-month use of secondary prevention medications following MI in Victoria, Australia. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included all people alive at least 90 days after discharge following MI between July 2012 and June 2017 in Victoria, Australia (n = 41 925). We investigated dispensing of P2Y12 inhibitors (P2Y12i), statins, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers (ACEIs/ARBs), and beta-blockers within 90 days after discharge. We estimated 12-month medication use using proportion of days covered (PDC). Remoteness was determined using the Accessibility/Remoteness Index of Australia (ARIA). Data were analysed using adjusted parametric regression models stratified by ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-STEMI (NSTEMI). There were 10 819 STEMI admissions and 31 106 NSTEMI admissions. Following adjustment across NSTEMI and STEMI, there were no medication classes dispensed in the 90-day post-discharge that differed in a clinically significant way from the least remote (ARIA = 0) to the most remote (ARIA = 4.8) areas. The largest difference for NSTEMI was ACEI/ARB, with 71% (95% confidence interval 70-72%) vs. 80% (76-83%). For STEMI, it was statins with 89% (88-90%) vs. 95% (91-97%). Predicted PDC for STEMI and NSTEMI was not clinically significant across remoteness, with the largest difference in NSTEMI being P2Y12i with 48% (47-50%) vs. 55% (51-59%), and in STEMI, it was ACEI/ARB with 68% (67-69%) vs. 76% (70-80%). CONCLUSION: Remoteness does not appear to be a clinically significant driver for medication use following MI. Possible differences in cardiovascular outcomes in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas are not likely to be explained by access to secondary prevention medications.

We investigated how where a person lives may affect the use of medications required following a heart attack. Our research used dispensing information and hospital admission information for a population of 41 925 heart attack admissions. Our main findings were as follows: There were no clinically significant differences in initial dispensing or 12-month use of secondary prevention medications with respect to how remote a person may live in Victoria, Australia.Our research suggests that there is equal access to medications with respect to remoteness, and any differences in quality of life or life expectancy following a heart attack are unlikely to be driven by differences in access to medications.

Health economics of detection and treatment of children with familial hypercholesterolemia: to screen or not to screen is no longer the question.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HeFH) is one of the most common monogenic disorders and is safely treatable with lipid-lowering medication. However, most individuals with HeFH remain untreated and undetected, especially in paediatric populations where the potential for long-term therapeutic benefit is higher. Here, we review the recent literature on health economic outcomes for the detection and management of FH in children. RECENT FINDINGS: A targeted literature review identified eight studies evaluating detection and management strategies for paediatric FH populations in the last 25 years. Most studies conducted modelled cost-effectiveness analyses to understand the long-term impact of these strategies on health outcomes and the financial impact on the healthcare system. All studies reported that detection and management of HeFH in paediatric populations was cost-effective, regardless of the age of the children. However, cost-effectiveness varied depending on the method of case ascertainment - targeted screening was generally cheaper overall, but less effective, than whole-of-population screening, although both methods were generally cost-effective. SUMMARY: Detection and management of HeFH in paediatric populations is a cost-effective way to significantly lower the burden of disease later in life for these individuals. These strategies should be implemented across healthcare systems.

No effect of remoteness on clinical outcomes following myocardial infarction: An analysis of 43,729 myocardial infarctions in Victoria, Australia.

BACKGROUND: Remoteness has been shown to predict poor clinical outcomes following myocardial infarction (MI). This study investigated 1-year clinical outcomes following MI by remoteness in Victoria, Australia. METHODS: We included all admissions for people discharged from hospital following MI between July 2012 and June 2017 (n = 43,729). Remoteness was determined using the Accessibility/Remoteness Index of Australia (ARIA). The relationship between remoteness and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality over 1-year was evaluated using adjusted Poisson regression, stratified by type STEMI and NSTEMI. RESULTS: For NSTEMI, adjusted rates of MACE were 77.5[95% confidence interval 65.1-92.1] for the most remote area versus 83.4[65.5-106.3] for the least remote area per 1000 person-years. For STEMI, rates of MACE were 28.5[18.3-44.6] for the most versus 33.5[18.9-59.4] for the least remote areas per 1000 person-years. With respect to all-cause mortality, NSTEMI mortality rates were 82.2[67.0-100.9] for the most versus 100.8[75.2-135.1] for the least remote areas per 1000 person-years. For STEMI, mortality rates were 24.7[13.7-44.7] for the most versus 22.3[9.8-50.8] for the least remote per 1000 person-years. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of MACE and all-cause mortality were similar in regardless of degree of remoteness, suggesting that initiatives to increase access to cardiology care in more remote areas succeeded in reducing previous disparities.

Societal health and economic burden of cardiovascular diseases in the population with type 2 diabetes in Qatar. A 10-year forecasting model.

AIMS: To predict the future health and economic burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Qatar. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A dynamic multistate model was designed to simulate the progression of fatal and non-fatal CVD events among people with T2D in Qatar aged 40-79 years. First CVD events [i.e. myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke] were calculated via the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equation, while recurrent CVD events were sourced from the REACH registry. Key model outcomes were fatal and non-fatal MI and stroke, years of life lived, quality-adjusted life years, total direct medical costs and total productivity loss costs. Utility and cost model inputs were drawn from published sources. The model adopted a Qatari societal perspective. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of estimates. RESULTS: Over 10 years among people with T2D, model estimates 108 195 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 104 249-112 172] non-fatal MIs, 62 366 (95% UI 60 283-65 520) non-fatal strokes and 14 612 (95% UI 14 472-14 744) CVD deaths. The T2D population accrued 4 786 605 (95% UI 4 743 454, 4 858 705) total years of life lived and 3 781 833 (95% UI 3 724 718-3 830 669) total quality-adjusted life years. Direct costs accounted for 57.85% of the total costs, with a projection of QAR41.60 billion (US$11.40 billion) [95% UI 7.53-147.40 billion (US$2.06-40.38 billion)], while the total indirect costs were expected to exceed QAR30.31 billion (US$8.30 billion) [95% UI 1.07-162.60 billion (US$292.05 million-44.55 billion)]. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest a significant economic and health burden of CVD among people with T2D in Qatar and highlight the need for more enhanced preventive strategies targeting this population group.

Estimating the Health Care Expenditure to Manage and Care for Type 2 Diabetes in Nepal: A Patient Perspective.

Background. This study aimed to estimate the health care expenditure for managing type 2 diabetes (T2D) in the community setting of Nepal. Methods. This is a baseline cross-sectional study of a heath behavior intervention that was conducted between September 2021 and February 2022 among patients with T2D (N = 481) in the Kavrepalanchok and Nuwakot districts of Nepal. Bottom-up and micro-costing approaches were used to estimate the health care costs and were stratified according to residential status and the presence of comorbid conditions. A generalized linear model with a log-link and gamma distribution was applied for modeling the continuous right-skewed costs, and 95% confidence intervals were obtained from 10,000 bootstrapping resampling techniques. Results. Over 6 months the mean health care resource cost to manage T2D was US $22.87 per patient: 61% included the direct medical cost (US $14.01), 15% included the direct nonmedical cost (US $3.43), and 24% was associated with productivity losses (US $5.44). The mean health care resource cost per patient living in an urban community (US $24.65) was about US $4.95 higher than patients living in the rural community (US $19.69). The health care costs per patient with comorbid conditions was US $22.93 and was US $22.81 for those without comorbidities. Patients living in rural areas had 16% lower health care expenses compared with their urban counterparts. Conclusion. T2D imposes a substantial financial burden on both the health care system and individuals. There is a need to establish high-value care treatment strategies for the management of T2D to reduce the high health care expenses. Highlights: More than 60% of health care expenses comprise the direct medical cost, 15% direct nonmedical cost, and 24% patient productivity losses. The costs of diagnosis, hospitalization, and recommended foods were the main drivers of health care costs for managing type 2 diabetes.Health care expenses among patients living in urban communities and patients with comorbid conditions was higher compared with those in rural communities and those with without comorbidities.The results of this study are expected to help integrate diabetes care within the existing primary health care systems, thereby reducing health care expenses and improving the quality of diabetes care in Nepal.

Stakeholder perspectives on short-stay joint replacement programs: results from a national cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The capacity to meet anticipated growth in joint replacement demand requires safe, efficient models of care. While short-stay joint replacement programs are being used internationally, they have not been widely implemented in many countries. Importantly, the critical challenges that need to be addressed ahead of large-scale program implementation remain unclear. This study aimed to investigate stakeholder perspectives on short-stay joint replacement programs, including perceived barriers and enablers to implementation and sustainability, and understand current practices in Australia. METHODS: Four key stakeholder groups were invited to participate in this national study: (1) health professionals who provide joint replacement care; (2) hospital administrators involved in joint replacement provision; (3) patients with recent joint replacement; and (4) carers of people with recent joint replacement. Data on perceived feasibility (0 (not at all feasible) - 10 (highly feasible), appeal (0 (not at all appealing) - 10 (highly appealing), current practices, and barriers and enablers were collected using visual analogue scales, multiple response option and open-ended questions, via an online platform. Descriptive analysis and free-text content analysis was undertaken. RESULTS: Data were available from 1,445 participants including 360 health professionals, 20 hospital administrators, 1,034 patients, and 31 carers. Short-stay program implementation was considered moderately feasible by health professionals (median 6, interquartile range (IQR) 3-8) and hospital administrators (median 5, IQR 5-6). Short-stay programs were moderately appealing to patients (median 7, IQR 2-9) but of little appeal to carers (median 3, IQR 1-7). Prominent implementation barriers included perceived limited appropriateness of short-stay programs, inadequate home supports, and issues around reimbursement models or program funding. Not having daily physiotherapy access and concerns about pain and mobility at home were common barriers for patients. Concern about patients' ability to manage daily activities was the most common barrier for carers. Access to post-discharge services, better funding models, improved staffing, and consistent protocols and national care standards were prominent enablers. CONCLUSIONS: This national study has uniquely captured multiple stakeholder perspectives on short-stay joint replacement programs. The findings can guide future quality improvement and implementation initiatives and the development of resources to best support patients, carers, clinicians, and hospitals.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of short-stay programmes for total hip and knee replacement, focusing on safety and optimal patient selection.

BACKGROUND: Short-stay joint replacement programmes are used in many countries but there has been little scrutiny of safety outcomes in the literature. We aimed to systematically review evidence on the safety of short-stay programmes versus usual care for total hip (THR) and knee replacement (KR), and optimal patient selection. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-experimental studies including a comparator group reporting on 14 safety outcomes (hospital readmissions, reoperations, blood loss, emergency department visits, infection, mortality, neurovascular injury, other complications, periprosthetic fractures, postoperative falls, venous thromboembolism, wound complications, dislocation, stiffness) within 90 days postoperatively in adults ≥ 18 years undergoing primary THR or KR were included. Secondary outcomes were associations between patient demographics or clinical characteristics and patient outcomes. Four databases were searched between January 2000 and May 2023. Risk of bias and certainty of the evidence were assessed. RESULTS: Forty-nine studies were included. Based upon low certainty RCT evidence, short-stay programmes may not reduce readmission (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.12-7.43); blood transfusion requirements (OR 1.75, 95% CI 0.27-11.36); neurovascular injury (OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.01-7.92); other complications (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.26-1.53); or stiffness (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.53-2.05). For registry studies, there was no difference in readmission, infection, neurovascular injury, other complications, venous thromboembolism, or wound complications but there were reductions in mortality and dislocations. For interrupted time series studies, there was no difference in readmissions, reoperations, blood loss volume, emergency department visits, infection, mortality, or neurovascular injury; reduced odds of blood transfusion and other complications, but increased odds of periprosthetic fracture. For other observational studies, there was an increased risk of readmission, no difference in blood loss volume, infection, other complications, or wound complications, reduced odds of requiring blood transfusion, reduced mortality, and reduced venous thromboembolism. One study examined an outcome relevant to optimal patient selection; it reported comparable blood loss for short-stay male and female participants (p = 0.814). CONCLUSIONS: There is low certainty evidence that short-stay programmes for THR and KR may have non-inferior 90-day safety outcomes. There is little evidence on factors informing optimal patient selection; this remains an important knowledge gap.

Future burden of myocardial infarction in Australia: impact on health outcomes between 2019 and 2038.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial infarction (MI) remains a major health burden in Australia. Yet the future burden of MI has not been extensively studied for the Australian population. METHODS: A multistate lifetable model was constructed to estimate the lifetime risk of MI and project the health burden of MI for the Australian population aged between 40 and 100 years over a 20-year period (2019-2028). Data for the model was primarily sourced from the Victorian linked dataset and supplemented with other national data. RESULTS: The lifetime risk of MI from age 40 years was estimated as 24.4% for males and 13.2% for females in 2018. From 2019-2038, 891 142 Australians were projected to develop incident MI. By 2038, the model estimated there would be 702 226 people with prevalent MI, 51 262 incident non-fatal MI and 3 717 incident fatal MI; these numbers represent a significant increase compared to the 2019 estimates, with a 27.0% (148 827), 62.0% (19 629), and 104.7% (1 901) rise, respectively. Projected years of life lived (YLL) (5% discount) accrued by the Australian population were 174 795 232 (84, 356 304 in males and 90 438 928 in females), with 7 657 423 YLL among people with MI (4 997 009 in males and 2 660 414 in females). CONCLUSION: The burden of MI was projected to increase between 2019 to 2038 in Australia. The outcomes of the model provide important information for decision-makers to prioritise population-wide prevention strategies to reduce the burden of MI.

Considering equity and cost-effectiveness in assessing a parenting intervention to promote early childhood development in rural Vietnam.

Considering equity in early childhood development (ECD) is important to ensure healthy development for every child. Equity-informative cost-effectiveness analysis can further guide decision makers to maximize outcomes with limited resources while promoting equity. This cost-effectiveness study aimed to examine the equity impacts of a multicomponent ECD intervention in rural Vietnam. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of the intervention with a 30-month time horizon from the service provider and household perspectives with equity considerations. Data were from a cluster-randomized controlled trial comparing the intervention with the local standard of care. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) per child cognitive development score gained were estimated by household wealth quintile and maternal education level, adjusted for cluster effects and baseline characteristics such as maternal parity and age. A 3% discount rate was applied to costs, and non-parametric cluster bootstrapping was used to examine uncertainty around ICERs. Children in the intervention had higher cognitive development scores than those in the control arm across all subgroups. Based on intervention recurrent cost, the ICER per cognitive development score gained was lower in children from the poorest quintile (-US$6) compared to those from the richest quintile (US$16). Similarly, the ICER per cognitive development score gained was lower in children whose mothers had the lowest education level (-US$0.02) than those with mothers who had the highest education level (US$7). Even though our findings should be interpreted with caution due to the insufficient study power, the findings suggest that the intervention could promote equity while improving child cognitive development with greater cost-effectiveness in disadvantaged groups.

Estimating Australian Hospitalization Ratios and Costs for Wildtype SARS-CoV-2 in 2020.

Utilizing a retrospective cohort study of SARS-CoV-2 wildtype (Wuhan) strain, we aimed to 1) utilize the unique Australian experience of temporarily eliminating SARS-CoV-2 to document and estimate the hospitalization demand; and 2) estimate the inpatient hospital costs associated with treatment. Case data was based on Victoria Australia from March 29 to December 31, 2020. Outcomes measures included hospitalization demand and case fatality ratio and inpatient hospitalization costs. Population adjusted results indicated that 10.2% (CI 9.9%-10.5%) required ward only admission, 1.0% (CI 0.9%-1.1%) required ICU admission plus 1.0% (CI 0.9%-1.1%) required ICU with mechanical ventilation. The overall case fatality ratio was 2.9% (CI 2.7%-3.1%). Mean ward only patient costs ranged from $22,714 to $57,100 per admission whilst ICU patient costs ranged from $37,228 to $140,455. With delayed, manageable outbreaks and public health measures leading to temporary elimination of community transmission, the Victorian COVID-19 data provides insight into initial pandemic severity and hospital costs.