Population modifiable risk factors associated with under-5 acute respiratory tract infections and diarrhoea in 25 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (2014-2021): an analysis of data from demographic and health surveys.

Background: Identifying the critical modifiable risk factors for acute respiratory tract infections (ARIs) and diarrhoea is crucial to reduce the burden of disease and mortality among children under 5 years of age in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and ultimately achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We investigated the modifiable risk factors of ARI and diarrhoea among children under five using nationally representative surveys. Methods: We used the most recent demographic and health survey (DHS) data (2014-2021) from 25 SSA countries, encompassing a total of 253,167 children. Countries were selected based on the availability of recent datasets (e.g., DHS-VII or DHS-VIII) that represent the current socioeconomic situations. Generalised linear latent mixed models were used to compute odds ratios (ORs). Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated using adjusted ORs and prevalence estimates for key modifiable risk factors among ARI and diarrhoeal cases. Findings: This study involved 253,167 children, with a mean age of 28.7 (±17.3) months, and 50.5% were male. The highest PAFs for ARI were attributed to unclean cooking fuel (PAF = 15.7%; 95% CI: 8.1, 23.1), poor maternal education (PAF = 13.4%; 95% CI: 8.7, 18.5), delayed initiation of breastfeeding (PAF = 12.4%; 95% CI: 9.0, 15.3), and poor toilets (PAF = 8.5%; 95% CI: 4.7, 11.9). These four modifiable risk factors contributed to 41.5% (95% CI: 27.2, 52.9) of ARI cases in SSA. The largest PAFs of diarrhoea were observed for unclean cooking fuel (PAF = 17.3%; 95% CI: 13.5, 22.3), delayed initiation of breastfeeding (PAF = 9.2%; 95% CI: 7.5, 10.5), household poverty (PAF = 7.0%; 95% CI: 5.0, 9.1) and poor maternal education (PAF = 5.6%; 95% CI: 2.9, 8.8). These four modifiable risk factors contributed to 34.0% (95% CI: 26.2, 42.3) of cases of diarrhoea in SSA. Interpretation: This cross-sectional study identified four modifiable risk factors for ARI and diarrhoea that should be a priority for policymakers in SSA. Enhancing home-based care and leveraging female community health workers is crucial for accelerating the reduction in under-5 mortality linked to ARI and diarrhoea in SSA. Funding: None.

Global burden of 34 cancers among women in 2020 and projections to 2040: Population-based data from 185 countries/territories.

Globally women face inequality in cancer outcomes; for example, smaller improvements in life expectancy due to decreased cancer-related deaths than men (0.5 vs 0.8 years, 1981-2010). However, comprehensive global evidence on the burden of cancer among women (including by reproductive age spectrum) as well as disparities by region, remains limited. This study aimed to address these evidence gaps by considering 34 cancer types in 2020 and their projections for 2040. The cancer burden among women in 2020 was estimated using population-based data from 185 countries/territories sourced from GLOBOCAN. Mortality to Incidence Ratios (MIR), a proxy for survival, were estimated by dividing the age-standardised mortality rates by the age-standardised incidence rates. Demographic projections were performed to 2040. In 2020, there were an estimated 9.3 million cancer cases and 4.4 million cancer deaths globally. Projections showed an increase to 13.3 million (↑44%) and 7.1 million (↑60%) in 2040, respectively, with larger proportional increases in low- and middle-income countries. MIR among women was higher (poorer survival) in rare cancers and with increasing age. Countries with low Human Development Indexes (HDIs) had higher MIRs (69%) than countries with very high HDIs (30%). There was inequality in cancer incidence and mortality worldwide among women in 2020, which will further widen by 2040. Implementing cancer prevention efforts and providing basic cancer treatments by expanding universal health coverage through a human rights approach, expanding early screening opportunities and strengthening medical infrastructure are key to improving and ensuring equity in cancer control and outcomes.

Unmet Supportive Care Needs Among Cancer Patients in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Mixed Method Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Supportive cancer care is vital to reducing the current disparities in cancer outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), including poor survival and low quality of life, and ultimately achieving equity in cancer care. This is the first review aimed to evaluate the extent of unmet supportive care needs and identify their contributing factors among patients with cancer in SSA. METHODS: Six electronic databases (CINAHL, Embase, Medline [Ovid], PsycINFO, PubMed, and Cochrane Library of Databases] were systematically searched. Studies that addressed one or more domains of unmet supportive cancer care needs were included. Findings were analyzed using narrative analysis and meta-analysis, as appropriate. RESULT: Eleven articles out of 2732 were retained in the review. The pooled prevalence of perceived unmet need for cancer care in SSA was 63% (95% CI: 45, 81) for physical, 59% (95% CI: 45, 72) for health information and system, 58% (95% CI: 42, 74) for psychological, 44% (95% CI: 29, 59) for patient care and support, and 43% (95% CI: 23, 63) for sexual. Older age, female sex, rural residence, advanced cancer stage, and low access to health information were related to high rates of multiple unmet needs within supportive care domains. CONCLUSION: In SSA, optimal cancer care provision was low, up to two-thirds of patients reported unmet needs for one or more domains. Strengthening efforts to develop comprehensive and integrated systems for supportive care services are keys to improving the clinical outcome, survival, and quality of life of cancer patients in SSA.

Birth asphyxia related mortality in Northwest Ethiopia: A multi-centre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Birth asphyxia is the second leading cause of neonatal death in Ethiopia, next to preterm-associated infections. Understanding the causes of death in asphyxiated newborns will help to design appropriate care. This study identifies predictors of neonatal mortality in asphyxiated newborns in selected hospitals in Northwest Ethiopia. METHODS: An institution-based prospective cohort study of 480 newborns with birth asphyxia was conducted at Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Shegaw Motta District Hospital, and Injibara General Hospital. All newborns with asphyxia admitted to the neonatal critical care unit from the first of November 2018 to the first of November 2019 were included. Data were obtained prospectively from mothers using an interviewer's administered questionnaire. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to estimate survival time, and Log rank test was used to compare the survival curves. Bivariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to identify the independent predictors of mortality in asphyxiated newborns. Adjusted hazard Ratios (AHRs) with 95% Cis (Confidence Intervals) were used to measure the strength of association and test statistical significance. RESULTS: The overall cumulative incidence of mortality among asphyxiated newborns was 42.29% (95% CI: 38%, 46). Asphyxiated neonates with other comorbidities (sepsis, neonatal anemia) (AHR = 2.63, 95% CI:1.69, 4.10), oxygen saturation of 50-69 (AHR = 4.62, 95% CI:2.55, 8.37), oxygen saturation of 70-89 (AHR = 2.82, 95% CI: 1.80, 4.42), severe Apgar score at one minute (AHR = 1.59, 95% CI:1.12, 2.25), neonates with Hypoxic Ischemic Encephalopathy (HIE) (AHR = 6.12, 95% CI:2.23, 16.75) were at higher risk of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The mortality rate among asphyxiated neonates remains high, and slightly higher than previous studies. Asphyxiated newborns with other comorbidities, severe Apgar score at one minute, who develop HIE, and low oxygen saturation were at higher risk of death. Therefore, designing appropriate interventions and prevention methods should be considered for identified variables.

Association Between Body Mass Index Variation and Early Mortality Among 834 Ethiopian Adults Living with HIV on ART: A Joint Modelling Approach.

INTRODUCTION: Body mass index (BMI) is a simple and cost-effective tool for monitoring the clinical responses of patients living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, especially in resource-limited settings where access to laboratory tests are limited. Current evidence on the association between longitudinal BMI variation and clinical outcomes among adults living with HIV receiving ART is essential to inform clinical guidelines. Therefore, this study examines the association between BMI variation and premature mortality in adults living with HIV on ART. METHODS: An institution-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 834 adults living with HIV receiving ART from June 2014 to June 2020 at Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital in Northwest Ethiopia. We first identified predictors of mortality and BMI variation using proportional hazards regression and linear mixed models, respectively. Then, the two models were combined to form an advanced joint model to examine the effect of longitudinal BMI variation on mortality. RESULTS: Of the 834 participants, 49 (5.9%) died, with a mortality rate of 4.1 (95% CI 3.1, 5.4) per 100 person-years. A unit increase in BMI after ART initiation corresponded to an 18% reduction in mortality risk. Patients taking tuberculosis preventive therapy (TPT), mild clinical disease stage, and changing ART regimens were at lower risk of death. However, patients with ambulatory/bedridden functional status were at higher risk of death. Regarding BMI variation over time, patients presenting with opportunistic infections (OIs), underweight patients, patients who started a Dolutegravir (DGT)-based ART regimen, and those with severe immunodeficiency had a higher BMI increase over time. However, patients from rural areas and overweight/obese patients experienced a lower BMI increase over time. CONCLUSION: BMI improvement after ART initiation was strongly associated with a lower mortality risk, regardless of BMI category. This finding implies that BMI may be used as a better predictor tool for death risk in adults living with HIV in Ethiopia. Additionally, patients who took a DGT-based ART regimen had a higher BMI increase rate over time, which aligns with possible positive effects, such as weight gain, of the DGT-based ART regimen in developing countries.

Undernutrition increased the risk of loss to follow-up among adults living with HIV on ART in Northwest Ethiopia: a retrospective cohort study.

This study aims to examine the effect of undernutrition on loss to follow-up (LTFU) in adults living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Ethiopia. We conducted an institution-based retrospective cohort study using medical records of 844 adults living with HIV receiving ART between June 2014 and June 2020 at Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital (Northwest Ethiopia). The effect of undernutrition on LTFU was examined using a proportional hazards regression model after adjusting potential confounders. The significance level was set at p < 0.05. At the end of the study period, 109 (12.9%) participants were considered LTFU, with an overall LTFU incidence of 5.3 per 100 person-years (95% CI 4.4, 6.4). The incidence of LTFU was higher in undernourished participants (8.2 per 100 person-years) compared to well-nourished participants (4.3 per 100 person-years). After adjusting for potential confounders, the adjusted risk of LTFU among undernourished participants was two times higher than in their well-nourished counterparts (AHR [adjusted hazard ratio]: 2.1, 95% CI 1.4, 3.2). This study found that undernutrition significantly increased the risk of LTFU among adults living with HIV on ART.

Loss to follow-up in "test and treat era" and its predictors among HIV-positive adults receiving ART in Northwest Ethiopia: Institution-based cohort study.

Background: People living with HIV/AIDS are enrolled in lifelong Anti-Retroviral Treatment (ART) irrespective of their clinical staging as well as CD4 cell count. Although this "Universal Test and Treat" strategy of ART was found to have numerous benefits, loss from follow-up and poor retention remained a long-term challenge for the achievement of ART program targets. Hence, this study is aimed at addressing the much-needed effect of the test and treat strategy on the incidence of loss to follow-up (LTFU) in Ethiopia. Method and materials: An institution-based follow-up study was conducted on 513 adults (age ≥15) who enrolled in ART at a public health institution in Bahir Dar City, Northwest Ethiopia. Data were extracted from the charts of selected patients and exported to Stata 14.2 software for analysis. Basic socio-demographic, epidemiological, and clinical characteristics were described. The Kaplan-Meier curve was used to estimate the loss to follow-up free (survival) probability of HIV-positive adults at 6, 12, 24, and 48 months of ART therapy. We fitted a multivariable Cox model to determine the statistically significant predictors of LTFU. Result: The incidence density of LTFU was 9.7 per 100 person-years of observation (95% CI: 7.9-11.9 per 100 PYO). Overall, LTFU is higher in the rapid ART initiation (24% in rapid initiated vs. 11.3% in lately initiated, AHR 2.08, P = 0.004), in males (23% males vs. 14.7% females, AHR1.96, P = 0.004), in singles (34% single vs. 11% married, with AHR1.83, P = 0.044), in non-disclosed HIV-status (33% non-disclosed 11% disclosed, AHR 2.00 p = 0.001). Patients with poor/fair ART adherence were also identified as another risk group of LTFU (37% in poor vs. 10.5% in good adherence group, AHR 4.35, P = 0.001). Conclusion: The incidence of LTFU in this universal test and treat era was high, and the highest figure was observed in the first 6 months. Immediate initiation of ART in a universal test and treat strategy shall be implemented cautiously to improve patient retention and due attention shall be given to those high-risk patients.

Effects of undernutrition on opportunistic infections among adults living with HIV on ART in Northwest Ethiopia: Using inverse-probability weighting.

BACKGROUND: Opportunistic infections (OIs) are the leading causes of hospitalization, morbidity, and mortality (accounting for 94.1% of all deaths) in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV). Despite evidence suggested that undernutrition significantly increases the risk of OIs in PLHIV, to our knowledge, no study has examined the actual effects of undernutrition on OIs in this population, particularly in low-income countries. Thus, this study examined the effects of undernutrition on OIs in adults living with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among 841adults living with HIV receiving ART between June 2014 and June 2020 at Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia. Study participants were selected using a simple random sampling technique. Data from participants' medical records were extracted using a project-specific data extraction checklist. The Kaplan Meier survival curve estimated the OIs free survival time. The effects of undernutrition on time to develop OIs was estimated using inverse-probability weighting. Finally, regression coefficients with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were reported, with a statistical significance of p < 0.05. RESULTS: Of 841 study participants, 262 (31.2%) developed OIs, and the overall incidence rate was 16.7 (95% CI: 14.8, 18.8) per 100 person-years. The incWidence of OIs in undernourished participants (21/100 person-years, 95% CI: 17.8, 27.4) was higher than well-nourished participants (15.0/100 person-years, 95% CI: 12.9, 17.4). When everyone in the population of interest is well-nourished, average time to develop OIs is estimated as 26.5 (coefficient: 26.5, 95% CI: 20.6, 32.4, p < 0.001) months. When everyone in the population of interest is undernourished, average time to develop OIs is estimated as 17.7 (95% CI: 12.8, 22.6) months. However, when everyone is undernourished, average time to develop OIs decreases by 8.8 (coefficient: -8.8, 95% CI: -16.6, -1.0, p = 0.026) months. Lastly, exposure to undernourishment (intervention) (ratio of average treatment effects to well-nourished potential outcome means in this study was a 32.5% reduction in OIs among adults living with HIV on ART. CONCLUSION: We found that undernutrition significantly shortened time to develop OIs in adults living with HIV. This implies that the occurrence of OIs in this vulnerable population can be improved through different cost-effective nutritional interventions, such as routine nutritional assessments and education.

Weight change after antiretroviral therapy initiation among adults living with HIV in Northwest Ethiopia: a longitudinal data analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The first objective was to explore weight change in the first 2 years after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in adults living with HIV. The second objective was to identify the predictors of weight change over time among adults living with HIV on ART. DESIGN: An institution-based retrospective longitudinal study was conducted. SETTING: The study was conducted at Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia. PARTICIPANTS: The study included 848 randomly selected medical charts of adults living with HIV receiving ART between June 2014 and June 2020. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: The primary outcome was weight change in the first 2 years after ART initiation. The secondary outcome was to identify predictors of weight change. Association between predictor variables and weight change was assessed using an LMM. Variables with p values <0.05 in the final model were considered as statistically significant predictors of weight change. RESULTS: Of 844 study participants, more than half (n=499; 58.8%) were female. Participants' mean weight increased from 54.2 kg (SD ±9.6 kg) at baseline to 59.5 kg (SD ±10.7 kg) at the end of follow-up. Duration of time on ART, sex, WHO clinical disease staging, functional status, nutritional status and presence of opportunistic infections were significant predictors of weight change at ART initiation. Significant interaction effects were observed between time and sex, WHO clinical disease staging, functional status, isoniazid preventive therapy and nutritional status. CONCLUSION: We found a linear increment of weight over 24 months of follow-up. Rate of weight gain over time was lower in patients with advanced disease stage and working functional status, whereas weight gain rate was higher in male and underweight patients.

Determinants of mortality among under-five children admitted with severe acute malnutrition in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Management of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) has been a program priority in Ethiopia, but it remains the leading cause of mortality in under-five children. Hence, this study aimed to identify the incidence density rate of mortality and determinants among under-five children with severe acute malnutrition in St. Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College, 2012 to 2019. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted and data were collected using a structured checklist from 673 charts, of which 610 charts were included in the final analysis. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve with Log-rank test was used to estimate the survival time. Bi-variable and multi-variable Cox proportional hazard regression models were fitted to identify determinants of death. Schoenfeld residuals test was used to check a proportional hazard assumption. Goodness of fit of the final model was checked using Nelson Aalen cumulative hazard function against Cox-Snell residual. RESULTS: In this study, 61 (10%) children died making the incidence density rate of death 5.6 (95% CI: 4.4, 7.2) per 1000 child-days. Shock (Adjusted Hazard Ratio) [AHR] =3.2; 95% CI: 1.6, 6.3)), IV fluid infusion (AHR = 5.2; 95% CI: 2.4, 10.4), supplementing F100 (AHR = 0.12; 95%CI: 0.06, 0.23) and zinc (AHR = 0.45; 95% CI: 0.22, 0.93) were determinants of death. CONCLUSION: The overall proportion of deaths was within the range put forth by the Sphere standard and the national SAM management protocol. Shock and IV fluid infusion increased the hazard of death, whereas F100 & zinc were found to decrease the likelihood death. Children with SAM presented with shock should be handled carefully and IV fluids should be given with precautions.

Does undernutrition increase the risk of lost to follow-up in adults living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa? Protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Undernutrition is considered a marker for poor prognosis among people living with HIV (PLHIV), particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where undernutrition and HIV are both highly prevalent. Evidence suggests that undernutrition (body mass index <18.5 kg/m2) is one of the main factors that significantly increases the risk of lost to follow-up (LTFU) in PLHIV. However, primary studies in SSA have reported inconsistent findings on the relationship between undernutrition and LTFU among adults living with HIV. To the best of our knowledge, no systematic review which aimed to summarise the available evidence. Hence, this review aims to determine the pooled effect of undernutrition on LTFU among adults living with HIV in SSA. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Scopus, and, for grey literature, Google Scholar will be systematically searched to include relevant articles published since 2005. Studies reporting the effect of undernutrition on LTFU in adults living with HIV in SSA will be included. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale will be used for quality assessment. Data from eligible studies will be extracted using a standardised data extraction tool. Heterogeneity between included studies will be assessed using Cochrane Q-test and I2 statistics. The Egger's and Begg's tests at a 5% significance level will be used to evaluate publication bias. As heterogeneity is anticipated, the pooled effect size will be estimated using a random-effects model. The final effect size will be reported using the adjusted HR with a 95% CI. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval is not required for a protocol for a systematic review. The results of this systematic review will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and will be publicly available. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021277741.

Predictors of recovery rate among undernourished HIV-positive adults treated with ready-to-use therapeutic food at Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Nutritional support is becoming more widely acknowledged as a crucial component of the key package of care for HIV/AIDS patients. This nutritional support is exceptionally important for patients in sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia, where HIV/AIDS is very prevalent. However, there is a lack of evidence on the recovery rate and predictors at the study site and at large in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study will give some insight into the recovery rate and its predictors among under-nourished HIV-positive adults treated with Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF) attending at Debre Markos referral hospital. Moreover, the findings of this study will be used by both governmental and non-governmental organizations to allocate more resources to mitigate the nutritional problems for people living with HIV. METHODS: An institution-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 453 under-nourished HIV positive adults treated with RUTF at Debre Markos referral Hospital from the 1st of July, 2015 to the 31st of December, 2017. The study participants were selected using a simple random sampling technique. Data were extracted from patient charts using a standardized data extraction checklist. Data were entered into Epi-Data Version 4.2 and analyzed using Stata Version 14. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to estimate the time to recovery. Log-rank test was used to compare the recovery time between different baseline categorical variables. The bivariable and multivariable Cox-proportional hazard regression models were fitted for potential predictors of recovery time. Adjusted hazard Ratios (AHRs) with 95% CIs were used to measure the strength of association and test statistical significance. RESULTS: A total of 453 undernourished HIV-positive adults were included in the final analysis. About 201, 44.4% (95%CI: 38.9, 49.0%) patients participating in the RUTF program were recovered based on predetermined exit criteria with incidence of 10.65 (95% CI: 9.28, 12.23) per 100 person-month observations. Being moderately undernourished (AHR: 11.0, 95% CI: 5.3, 23.1), WHO clinical stage (I or II) (AHR:1.8, 95% CI: 1.2, 2.6), and working functional status at baseline (AHR = 2.34, 95%CI: 1.01,5.45) were predictors of recovery time. CONCLUSION: This study concluded that the overall nutritional recovery rate was below the acceptable minimum requirement which at least 75% of patients should recovered. Mild to moderate undernutrition at baseline, WHO clinical stage I or II at enrolment, and working functional status were found to be predictors of recovery time in HIV/AIDS patients treated with the RUTF. As a result, special attention should be paid to severely malnourished patients, WHO clinical stages III or higher, and patients who are bedridden or ambulatory during treatment.

Predictors of mortality in patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Even though the lives of millions have been saved in the past decades, the mortality rate in patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis is still high. Different factors are associated with this mortality. However, there is no comprehensive global report addressing these risk factors. This study aimed to determine the predictors of mortality using data generated at the global level. METHODS: We systematically searched five electronic major databases (PubMed/Medline, CINAHL, EMBASE, Scopus, Web of Science), and other sources (Google Scholar, Google). We used the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal tools to assess the quality of included articles. Heterogeneity assessment was conducted using the forest plot and I2 heterogeneity test. Data were analyzed using STATA Version 15. The pooled hazard ratio, risk ratio, and odd's ratio were estimated along with their 95% CIs. RESULT: After reviewing 640 articles, 49 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the final analysis. The predictors of mortality were; being male (HR = 1.25,95%CI;1.08,1.41,I2;30.5%), older age (HR = 2.13, 95%CI;1.64,2.62,I2;59.0%,RR = 1.40,95%CI; 1.26, 1.53, I2; 48.4%) including a 1 year increase in age (HR = 1.01, 95%CI;1.00,1.03,I2;73.0%), undernutrition (HR = 1.62,95%CI;1.28,1.97,I2;87.2%, RR = 3.13, 95% CI; 2.17,4.09, I2;0.0%), presence of any type of co-morbidity (HR = 1.92,95%CI;1.50-2.33,I2;61.4%, RR = 1.61, 95%CI;1.29, 1.93,I2;0.0%), having diabetes (HR = 1.74, 95%CI; 1.24,2.24, I2;37.3%, RR = 1.60, 95%CI;1.13,2.07, I2;0.0%), HIV co-infection (HR = 2.15, 95%CI;1.69,2.61, I2; 48.2%, RR = 1.49, 95%CI;1.27,1.72, I2;19.5%), TB history (HR = 1.30,95%CI;1.06,1.54, I2;64.6%), previous second-line anti-TB treatment (HR = 2.52, 95% CI;2.15,2.88, I2;0.0%), being smear positive at the baseline (HR = 1.45, 95%CI;1.14,1.76, I2;49.2%, RR = 1.58,95%CI;1.46,1.69, I2;48.7%), having XDR-TB (HR = 2.01, 95%CI;1.50,2.52, I2;60.8%, RR = 2.44, 95%CI;2.16,2.73,I2;46.1%), and any type of clinical complication (HR = 2.98, 95%CI; 2.32, 3.64, I2; 69.9%). There are differences and overlaps of predictors of mortality across different drug-resistance categories. The common predictors of mortality among different drug-resistance categories include; older age, presence of any type of co-morbidity, and undernutrition. CONCLUSION: Different patient-related demographic (male sex, older age), and clinical factors (undernutrition, HIV co-infection, co-morbidity, diabetes, clinical complications, TB history, previous second-line anti-TB treatment, smear-positive TB, and XDR-TB) were the predictors of mortality in patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis. The findings would be an important input to the global community to take important measures.

Magnitude and associated factors of virological failure among children on ART in Bahir Dar Town public health facilities, Northwest Ethiopia: a facility based cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy, virologic failure has become global public health concern and challenge, especially in developing countries. Viral load monitoring is an important approach to identify treatment failure and develop public health interventions in children receiving antiretroviral therapy. Thus, this study aims to assess the magnitude and associated factors of virological failure among children on antiretroviral therapy. METHODS: A facility-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 399 HIV-positive children on antiretroviral therapy from 2016 to 2019 in Bahir Dar Town public health facilities. Data were extracted from children's charts using a standardized data extraction tool, adapted from ART intake and follow-up forms. Data were entered using Epi-Data Version 3.1, and analyzed using SPSS Version 25. Bivariable and multivariable binary logistic regression models were done to identify factors associated with virological failure. Variables with p-values < 0.25 were fitted into the multivariable analysis. Finally, variables with p-values <0.05 were considered as statistically significant factors. RESULTS: The period prevalence of virological failure was found to be 14.8% (95% CI: 11.5-19.3%). Opportunistic infections (AOR = 2.19, CI: 1.13-4.25), history of treatment interruption and restart (AOR = 2.21, CI: 1.09-4.54), younger age (AOR = 2.42, CI: 1.02-5.74), poor/fair ART adherence (AOR = 2.19, CI: 1.05-4.57), and advanced baseline WHO clinical staging (AOR = 2.32, CI: 1.14-4.74) were found to be factors significantly associated with virological failure. CONCLUSION: The magnitude of virological failure among HIV-infected children remained high. Children with poor/fair ART adherence, history of treatment interruption, advanced baseline WHO clinical staging, younger age, and opportunistic infections were significantly associated with virologic failure. Thus, special attention should be given to children who had poor/fair ART adherence and presenting with opportunistic infections.

Effects of undernutrition on mortality and morbidity among adults living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Undernutrition is one of the most common problems among people living with HIV, contributing to premature death and the development of comorbidities within this population. In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the impacts of these often inter-related conditions appear in a series of fragmented and inconclusive studies. Thus, this review examines the pooled effects of undernutrition on mortality and morbidities among adults living with HIV in SSA. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted from PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, and Scopus databases. All observational studies reporting the effects of undernutrition on mortality and morbidity among adults living with HIV in SSA were included. Heterogeneity between the included studies was assessed using the Cochrane Q-test and I2 statistics. Publication bias was assessed using Egger's and Begg's tests at a 5% significance level. Finally, a random-effects meta-analysis model was employed to estimate the overall adjusted hazard ratio. RESULTS: Of 4309 identified studies, 53 articles met the inclusion criteria and were included in this review. Of these, 40 studies were available for the meta-analysis. A meta-analysis of 23 cohort studies indicated that undernutrition significantly (AHR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.8, 2.4) increased the risk of mortality among adults living with HIV, while severely undernourished adults living with HIV were at higher risk of death (AHR: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.9, 2.8) as compared to mildly undernourished adults living with HIV. Furthermore, the pooled estimates of ten cohort studies revealed that undernutrition significantly increased the risk of developing tuberculosis (AHR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.6, 2.7) among adults living with HIV. CONCLUSION: This review found that undernutrition has significant effects on mortality and morbidity among adults living with HIV. As the degree of undernutrition became more severe, mortality rate also increased. Therefore, findings from this review may be used to update the nutritional guidelines used for the management of PLHIV by different stakeholders, especially in limited-resource settings.

Incidence and predictors of surgical site infection following cesarean section in North-west Ethiopia: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Following delivery by caesarean section, surgical site infection is the most common infectious complication. Despite a large number of caesarean sections performed at Debre Markos Referral Hospital, there was no study documenting the incidence of surgical site infection after caesarean section. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the incidence of surgical site infection following caesarean section at Debre-Markos Referral Hospital in Amhara region, North-west Ethiopia. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted among 520 pregnant women who had a caesarean section between March 28, 2019 and August 31, 2019. Preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative data were collected using a standardized questionnaire. Data was entered using EpiData™ Entry Version 4.1 software and analyzed using R Version 3.6.1 software. A descriptive analysis was conducted using tables, interquartile ranges and median. The time to development of surgical site infection was estimated using Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox regression model for bivariable and multivariable analyses was done. Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was reported to show the strength of association. RESULT: The mean age of the study cohort was 27.4 ± 4.8 years. The overall cumulative incidence of surgical site infection was 25.4% with an incidence of 11.7 (95% CI:9.8,13.9) per 1000 person/days. Not able to read and write (AHR = 1.30,95% CI:1.19,2.11), no antenatal care (AHR = 2.16, 95%CI:1.05,4.53), previous history of CS (AHR = 1.21, 95% CI:1.11,2.31), HIV positive (AHR = 1.39, 95% CI:1.21,2.57), emergency procedure (AHR = 1.13, 95% CI:1.11,2.43), vertical type of incision (AHR = 2.60, 95% CI:1.05,6.44), rupture of membrane (AHR = 1.50, 95% CI:1.31,1.64), multiple vaginal examination (AHR = 1.88, 95% CI: 1.71, 3.20) were significant predictors of surgical site infection in this study. CONCLUSION: This study concluded that the incidence of surgical site infection following caesarean section was relatively high compared to previous studies. Not able to read and write, have no ante natal care, previous history of caesarean section, HIV, emergency surgery, vertical type of incision, rupture of membranes before caesarean section, and multiple vaginal examinations were significant predictors of surgical site infection in this study. Therefore, intervention programs should focus on and address the identified factors to minimize and prevent the infection rate after caesarean section.

Incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up among HIV-positive adults in northwest Ethiopia: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the rapid expansion of antiretroviral therapy services, 'loss to follow-up' is a significant public health concern globally. Loss to follow-up of individuals from ART has a countless negative impact on the treatment outcomes. There is, however, limited information about the incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up in our study area. Thus, this study aimed to determine the incidence rate and predictors of loss to follow-up among adult HIV patients on ART. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was undertaken using 484 HIV patients between January 30, 2008, and January 26, 2018, at Debre Markos Referral Hospital. All eligible HIV patients who fulfilled the inclusion criteria were included in this study. Data were entered into Epi-data Version 4.2 and analyzed using STATATM Version 14.0 software. The Nelson-Aalen cumulative hazard estimator was used to estimate the hazard rate of loss to follow-up, and the log-rank test was used to compare the survival curve between different categorical variables. Both bivariable and multivariable Cox-proportional hazard regression models were fitted to identify predictors of LTFU. RESULTS: Among a cohort of 484 HIV patients at Debre Markos Referral Hospital, 84 (17.36%) were loss their ART follow-up. The overall incidence rate of loss to follow-up was 3.7 (95% CI 3.0, 5.0) per 100 adult-years. The total LTFU free time of the participants was 2294.8 person-years. In multivariable Cox-regression analysis, WHO stage IV (AHR 2.8; 95% CI 1.2, 6.2), having no cell phone (AHR 1.9; 95% CI 1.1, 3.4), and rural residence (AHR 0.6; 95% CI 0.37, 0.99) were significant predictors of loss to follow-up. CONCLUSION: The incidence of loss to ART follow-up in this study was low. Having no cell phone and WHO clinical stage IV were causative predictors, and rural residence was the only protective factor of loss to follow-up. Therefore, available intervention modalities should be strengthened to mitigate loss to follow-up by addressing the identified risk factors.

Nearly one in every six HIV-infected children lost from ART follow-up at Debre Markos Referral Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia: A 14-year retrospective follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Although antiretroviral therapy (ART) significantly improves the survival status and quality of life among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children, loss to follow-up (LTFU) from HIV-care profoundly affecting the treatment outcomes of this vulnerable population. For better interventions, up-to-date information concerning LTFU among HIV-infected children on ART is vital. However, only a few studies have been conducted in Ethiopia to address this concern. Thus, this study aims to identify the predictors of LTFU among HIV-infected children receiving ART at Debre Markos Referral Hospital. METHODS: An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was done among 408 HIV-infected children receiving ART at Debre Markos Referral Hospital between 2005 and March 15, 2019. Data were abstracted from the medical records of HIV-infected children using a standardized data abstracted checklist. We used Epi-Data Version 3.1 for data entry and Stata Version 14 for statistical analysis. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to estimate the survival time. A generalized log-rank test was used to compare the survival curves of different categorical variables. Finally, both bi-variable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to identify the predictors of LTFU. RESULTS: Of 408 HIV-infected children included in the final analysis, 70 (17.1%) children were LTFU at the end of the study. The overall incidence rate of LTFU among HIV-infected children was found to be 4.5 (95%CI: 3.5-5.7) per 100-child years of observation. HIV-infected children living in rural areas (AHR: 3.2, 95%CI: 2.0-5.3), having fair or poor ART drug adherence (AHR: 2.3, 95%CI: 1.4-3.7), children started ART through test and treat approach (AHR: 2.7, 95%CI: 1.4-5.5), and children started protease inhibiter (PI)-based ART regimens (AHR: 2.2, 95%CI: 1.1-4.4) were at higher risk of LTFU. CONCLUSION: This study found that one in every six HIV-infected children lost form ART follow-up. HIV-infected children living in rural areas, having fair or poor ART drug adherence, started ART based on test and treat approach, and taking PI-based ART regimens were at higher risk of LTFU.

Mortality rate among HIV-positive children on ART in Northwest Ethiopia: a historical cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Though highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has been available for more than a decade in Ethiopia, information regarding mortality rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive children after antiretroviral therapy antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is very scarce. Thus, this study intends to determine the predictors of mortality among HIV-positive children receiving ART in Amhara Region. METHODS: A multicenter facility-based historical cohort study was conducted in 538 HIV-positive children on ART from January 2012 to February 2017. We employed a standardized data extraction tool, adapted from ART entry and follow-up forms. Descriptive analyses were summarized using the Kaplan-Meier survival curve and log rank test. Then, the Cox-proportional hazard regression model was employed to estimate the hazard of death up to five-years after ART initiation. Variables with p-values ≤0.25 in bivariable analysis were candidates to the multivariable analysis. Finally, variables with p-values < 0.05 were considered as significant variables. RESULTS: The cohort contributed a total follow-up time of 14,600 child-months, with an overall mortality rate of 3.2 (95% CI: 2.3, 4.3) per 100 child-years. This study also indicated that HIV-infected children presenting with opportunistic infections (OIs) (AHR: 2.5, 95% CI: 1.04, 5.9), anemia (AHR: 3.1, 95% CI: 1.4, 6.7), severe immunodeficiency (AHR: 4.4, 95% CI: 1.7, 11.7), severe stunting (AHR: 3.3, 95% CI: 1.4, 8.0), severe wasting (AHR: 3.1, 95% CI: 1.3, 7.3), and advanced disease staging (III and IV) (AHR: 3.0, 95% CI: 1.2, 7.1) were at higher risk of mortality. CONCLUSION: A higher rate of mortality was observed in our study as compared to previous Ethiopian studies. HIV-positive children presenting with anemia, OIs, severe immunodeficiency, advanced disease staging (III and IV), severe stunting, and severe wasting were at higher risk of mortality.

Recovery rate and its predictors among children with severe acute malnutrition in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: A retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Malnutrition is a public health problem in under-five children in several parts of the world even after decades of the implementation of management protocols. An estimated 17 million children under the age of five years are living with severe acute malnutrition and the majorities are found in Asia and Africa, including Ethiopia. OBJECTIVE: The main objective of this study was to determine the recovery rate and its predictors among under-five children who were admitted to St. Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College from 2012 to 2019. METHODS: An institution based retrospective cohort study was employed at St. Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College from May 20, 2019 to June 28, 2019. Data were collected by reviewing children's' medical records using a structured checklist. A total of 534 charts were selected using a simple random sampling method and 515 of them were used for the final analysis. Ep-info version 7 software was used for data entry and STATA Version 15 for analysis. The Kaplan Meier failure estimate with Log-rank test was used to determine the survival estimates. Bi-variable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model were fitted to identify predictors of mortality. Finally, variables with p-values less than 0.05 in the multivariable Cox regression were considered as independent predictors. The proportional hazards assumption was checked using the Schoenfeld residuals test and the final model fitness was checked using the Cox-Snail residual test. RESULT: In this study, a total of 515 subjects were followed for 8672 child-days and 79% of the subjects recovered from SAM with the median time of 17 days. The incidence density rate of recovery was 46 per 1000 child-days. Tuberculosis (AHR(Adjusted Hazard Ratio) 0.44 & 95% CI: 0.32, 0.62), pale conjunctiva (AHR,0.67 & 95% CI: 0.52, 0.88), IV fluid infusion (AHR, 0.71 & 95 CI: 0.51, 0.98), feeding F100 (AHR, 1.63 & 95% CI:1.04,2.54), Vitamin A supplementation (AHR, 1.3 & 95% CI:1.07, 1.59) and bottle feeding (AHR, 0.79 & 95CI%: 0.64-0.98) were the independent predictors of time to recovery from SAM. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, the recovery rate was relatively higher than the Sphere standard and the national SAM management protocol. Co-morbidities and the treatments given were the main determinants of recovery of children. Co-morbidities must be managed as early as possible and the treatments given during the SAM management process need to be given with precaution.