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1.
Crit Care Med ; 52(4): e206-e207, 2024 04 01.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38483231
2.
Thorax ; 79(5): 472-475, 2024 Apr 15.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38514184

We conducted a prospective single-centre cohort study of 104 multi-ethnic severe COVID-19 survivors from the first wave of the pandemic 15 months after hospitalisation. Of those who were assessed at 4 and 15 months, improvement of ground glass opacities correlated with worsened fibrotic reticulations. Despite a high prevalence of fibrotic patterns (64%), pulmonary function, grip strength, 6 min walk distance and frailty normalised. Overall, dyspnoea, cough and exhaustion did not improve and were not correlated with pulmonary function or radiographic fibrosis at 15 months, suggesting non-respiratory aetiologies. Monitoring persistent, and often subclinical, fibrotic interstitial abnormalities will be needed to determine their potential for future progression.


COVID-19 , Pulmonary Fibrosis , Humans , Pulmonary Fibrosis/diagnostic imaging , Pulmonary Fibrosis/etiology , Exercise Tolerance , Prospective Studies , Cohort Studies
4.
Am J Respir Crit Care Med ; 208(6): 685-694, 2023 09 15.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37638735

Rationale: Patients with obesity are at increased risk for developing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Some centers consider obesity a relative contraindication to receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support, despite growing implementation of ECMO for ARDS in the general population. Objectives: To investigate the association between obesity and mortality in patients with ARDS receiving ECMO. Methods: In this large, international, multicenter, retrospective cohort study, we evaluated the association of obesity, defined as body mass index ⩾ 30 kg/m2, with ICU mortality in patients receiving ECMO for ARDS by performing adjusted multivariable logistic regression and propensity score matching. Measurements and Main Results: Of 790 patients with ARDS receiving ECMO in our study, 320 had obesity. Of those, 24.1% died in the ICU, compared with 35.3% of patients without obesity (P < 0.001). In adjusted models, obesity was associated with lower ICU mortality (odds ratio, 0.63 [95% confidence interval, 0.43-0.93]; P = 0.018). Examined as a continuous variable, higher body mass index was associated with decreased ICU mortality in multivariable regression (odds ratio, 0.97 [95% confidence interval, 0.95-1.00]; P = 0.023). In propensity score matching of 199 patients with obesity to 199 patients without, patients with obesity had a lower probability of ICU death than those without (22.6% vs. 35.2%; P = 0.007). Conclusions: Among patients receiving ECMO for ARDS, those with obesity had lower ICU mortality than patients without obesity in multivariable and propensity score matching analyses. Our findings support the notion that obesity should not be considered a general contraindication to ECMO.


Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation , Respiratory Distress Syndrome , Humans , Retrospective Studies , Obesity/complications , Obesity/therapy , Body Mass Index , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/therapy
5.
Crit Care Med ; 51(11): e209-e220, 2023 11 01.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37294143

OBJECTIVES: Pulmonary fibrosis is a feared complication of COVID-19. To characterize the risks and outcomes associated with fibrotic-like radiographic abnormalities in patients with COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and chronic critical illness. DESIGN: Single-center prospective cohort study. SETTING: We examined chest CT scans performed between ICU discharge and 30 days after hospital discharge using established methods to quantify nonfibrotic and fibrotic-like patterns. PATIENTS: Adults hospitalized with COVID-19-related ARDS and chronic critical illness (> 21 d of mechanical ventilation, tracheostomy, and survival to ICU discharge) between March 2020 and May 2020. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We tested associations of fibrotic-like patterns with clinical characteristics and biomarkers, and with time to mechanical ventilator liberation and 6-month survival, controlling for demographics, comorbidities, and COVID-19 therapies. A total of 141 of 616 adults (23%) with COVID-19-related ARDS developed chronic critical illness, and 64 of 141 (46%) had a chest CT a median (interquartile range) 66 days (42-82 d) after intubation. Fifty-five percent had fibrotic-like patterns characterized by reticulations and/or traction bronchiectasis. In adjusted analyses, interleukin-6 level on the day of intubation was associated with fibrotic-like patterns (odds ratio, 4.40 per quartile change; 95% CI, 1.90-10.1 per quartile change). Other inflammatory biomarkers, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, age, tidal volume, driving pressure, and ventilator days were not. Fibrotic-like patterns were not associated with longer time to mechanical ventilator liberation or worse 6-month survival. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately half of adults with COVID-19-associated chronic critical illness have fibrotic-like patterns that are associated with higher interleukin-6 levels at intubation. Fibrotic-like patterns are not associated with longer time to liberation from mechanical ventilation or worse 6-month survival.


COVID-19 , Respiratory Distress Syndrome , Adult , Humans , COVID-19/diagnostic imaging , COVID-19/complications , Critical Illness/therapy , Prospective Studies , Interleukin-6 , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/diagnostic imaging , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/etiology , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/therapy , Respiration, Artificial/adverse effects , Biomarkers
6.
J Pastoral Care Counsel ; 77(1): 19-26, 2023 Mar.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36448205

Hospitalized individuals in the United States with limited English proficiency (LEP) may experience complications when receiving hospital care. Grounded in the ethical principles of chaplaincy and motivated by the desire to address inequitable health service provision, we developed the Cross-Language Chaplaincy Introduction Guidebook. The Guidebook introduces chaplaincy in 20 different languages with the goal of improving chaplain accessibility. We report on the rigorous development of the Guidebook and how to integrate the resource clinically.


Limited English Proficiency , Pastoral Care , Spiritual Therapies , Humans , United States , Language , Clergy
7.
Crit Care Med ; 50(11): e779-e790, 2022 11 01.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35997501

OBJECTIVES: Evaluate the efficacy of interventions to improve symptoms for ICU surrogates at highest risk of developing psychologic distress: those facing end-of-life care decisions. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycInfo, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched through April 16, 2022. STUDY SELECTION: Following an a priori protocol, randomized trials of interventions delivered to surrogates of adult ICU patients who died or had high likelihood of mortality evaluating surrogate symptoms were identified. DATA EXTRACTION: Two reviewers performed screening and data extraction and assessed risk of bias (Cochrane Risk of Bias [RoB] 2 tool). Trials were eligible for meta-analysis if group mean symptom scores were provided at 3 or 6 months. Pooled effects were estimated using a random effects model. Heterogeneity was assessed (Cochrane Q, I2 ). Certainty of evidence was assessed (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation). DATA SYNTHESIS: Of 1,660 records, 10 trials met inclusion criteria representing 3,824 surrogates; eight were included in the meta-analysis. Overall RoB was rated Some Concerns. Most ( n = 8) interventions focused on improving communication and enhancing psychologic support in the ICU. All trials measured anxiety, depression, and posttraumatic stress. Significant improvement was seen at 3 months (depression, mean difference [MD], -0.68; 95% CI, -1.14 to -0.22, moderate certainty; posttraumatic stress, standardized MD, -0.25; 95% CI, -0.49 to -0.01, very low certainty) and 6 months (anxiety, MD, -0.70; 95% CI, -1.18 to -0.22, moderate certainty). Sensitivity analyses suggest significant findings may be unstable. Subgroup analyses demonstrated differences in effect by trial location, interventionist, and intervention dose. CONCLUSIONS: Communication and psychological support interventions in the ICU yielded small but significant improvement in psychological symptoms with moderate to very low certainty evidence in a prognostically-enriched sample of ICU surrogates facing end-of-life care decisions. A new approach to interventions that extend beyond the ICU may be needed.


Anxiety , Quality of Life , Adult , Anxiety/psychology , Anxiety/therapy , Anxiety Disorders , Death , Humans , Intensive Care Units
8.
JAMA Intern Med ; 182(6): 624-633, 2022 06 01.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35467698

Importance: The psychological symptoms associated with having a family member admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) during the COVID-19 pandemic are not well defined. Objective: To examine the prevalence of symptoms of stress-related disorders, primarily posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), in family members of patients admitted to the ICU with COVID-19 approximately 90 days after admission. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective, multisite, mixed-methods observational cohort study assessed 330 family members of patients admitted to the ICU (except in New York City, which had a random sample of 25% of all admitted patients per month) between February 1 and July 31, 2020, at 8 academic-affiliated and 4 community-based hospitals in 5 US states. Exposure: Having a family member in the ICU with COVID-19. Main Outcomes and Measures: Symptoms of PTSD at 3 months, as defined by a score of 10 or higher on the Impact of Events Scale 6 (IES-6). Results: A total of 330 participants (mean [SD] age, 51.2 [15.1] years; 228 [69.1%] women; 150 [52.8%] White; 92 [29.8%] Hispanic) were surveyed at the 3-month time point. Most individuals were the patients' child (129 [40.6%]) or spouse or partner (81 [25.5%]). The mean (SD) IES-6 score at 3 months was 11.9 (6.1), with 201 of 316 respondents (63.6%) having scores of 10 or higher, indicating significant symptoms of PTSD. Female participants had an adjusted mean IES-6 score of 2.6 points higher (95% CI, 1.4-3.8; P < .001) than male participants, whereas Hispanic participants scored a mean of 2.7 points higher compared with non-Hispanic participants (95% CI, 1.0-4.3; P = .002). Those with graduate school experience had an adjusted mean score of 3.3 points lower (95% CI, 1.5-5.1; P < .001) compared with those with up to a high school degree or equivalent. Qualitative analyses found no substantive differences in the emotional or communication-related experiences between those with high vs low PTSD scores, but those with higher scores exhibited more distrust of practitioners. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, symptoms of PTSD among family members of ICU patients with COVID-19 were high. Hispanic ethnicity and female gender were associated with higher symptoms. Those with higher scores reported more distrust of practitioners.


COVID-19 , Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic , COVID-19/epidemiology , Child , Cohort Studies , Family/psychology , Female , Humans , Intensive Care Units , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Prospective Studies , Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/psychology
9.
JCI Insight ; 7(11)2022 06 08.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35446789

Respiratory failure in COVID-19 is characterized by widespread disruption of the lung's alveolar gas exchange interface. To elucidate determinants of alveolar lung damage, we performed epithelial and immune cell profiling in lungs from 24 COVID-19 autopsies and 43 uninfected organ donors ages 18-92 years. We found marked loss of type 2 alveolar epithelial (T2AE) cells and increased perialveolar lymphocyte cytotoxicity in all fatal COVID-19 cases, even at early stages before typical patterns of acute lung injury are histologically apparent. In lungs from uninfected organ donors, there was also progressive loss of T2AE cells with increasing age, which may increase susceptibility to COVID-19-mediated lung damage in older individuals. In the fatal COVID-19 cases, macrophage infiltration differed according to the histopathological pattern of lung injury. In cases with acute lung injury, we found accumulation of CD4+ macrophages that expressed distinctly high levels of T cell activation and costimulation genes and strongly correlated with increased extent of alveolar epithelial cell depletion and CD8+ T cell cytotoxicity. Together, our results show that T2AE cell deficiency may underlie age-related COVID-19 risk and initiate alveolar dysfunction shortly after infection, and we define immune cell mediators that may contribute to alveolar injury in distinct pathological stages of fatal COVID-19.


Acute Lung Injury , COVID-19 , Acute Lung Injury/pathology , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Alveolar Epithelial Cells/pathology , Autopsy , Humans , Lung/pathology , Middle Aged , Young Adult
11.
JCI Insight ; 7(2)2022 01 25.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34905515

Acute cardiac injury is prevalent in critical COVID-19 and associated with increased mortality. Its etiology remains debated, as initially presumed causes - myocarditis and cardiac necrosis - have proved uncommon. To elucidate the pathophysiology of COVID-19-associated cardiac injury, we conducted a prospective study of the first 69 consecutive COVID-19 decedents at CUIMC in New York City. Of 6 acute cardiac histopathologic features, presence of microthrombi was the most commonly detected among our cohort. We tested associations of cardiac microthrombi with biomarkers of inflammation, cardiac injury, and fibrinolysis and with in-hospital antiplatelet therapy, therapeutic anticoagulation, and corticosteroid treatment, while adjusting for multiple clinical factors, including COVID-19 therapies. Higher peak erythrocyte sedimentation rate and C-reactive protein were independently associated with increased odds of microthrombi, supporting an immunothrombotic etiology. Using single-nuclei RNA-sequencing analysis on 3 patients with and 4 patients without cardiac microthrombi, we discovered an enrichment of prothrombotic/antifibrinolytic, extracellular matrix remodeling, and immune-potentiating signaling among cardiac fibroblasts in microthrombi-positive, relative to microthrombi-negative, COVID-19 hearts. Non-COVID-19, nonfailing hearts were used as reference controls. Our study identifies a specific transcriptomic signature in cardiac fibroblasts as a salient feature of microthrombi-positive COVID-19 hearts. Our findings warrant further mechanistic study as cardiac fibroblasts may represent a potential therapeutic target for COVID-19-associated cardiac microthrombi.


COVID-19 , Heart Injuries , RNA-Seq , SARS-CoV-2/metabolism , Thrombosis , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/genetics , COVID-19/metabolism , COVID-19/pathology , Female , Heart Injuries/genetics , Heart Injuries/metabolism , Heart Injuries/pathology , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Myocardium/metabolism , Myocardium/pathology , Prospective Studies , Thrombosis/genetics , Thrombosis/metabolism , Thrombosis/pathology
12.
Am J Respir Crit Care Med ; 204(11): 1274-1285, 2021 12 01.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34543591

Rationale: Two distinct subphenotypes have been identified in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), but the presence of subgroups in ARDS associated with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is unknown. Objectives: To identify clinically relevant, novel subgroups in COVID-19-related ARDS and compare them with previously described ARDS subphenotypes. Methods: Eligible participants were adults with COVID-19 and ARDS at Columbia University Irving Medical Center. Latent class analysis was used to identify subgroups with baseline clinical, respiratory, and laboratory data serving as partitioning variables. A previously developed machine learning model was used to classify patients as the hypoinflammatory and hyperinflammatory subphenotypes. Baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes were compared between subgroups. Heterogeneity of treatment effect for corticosteroid use in subgroups was tested. Measurements and Main Results: From March 2, 2020, to April 30, 2020, 483 patients with COVID-19-related ARDS met study criteria. A two-class latent class analysis model best fit the population (P = 0.0075). Class 2 (23%) had higher proinflammatory markers, troponin, creatinine, and lactate, lower bicarbonate, and lower blood pressure than class 1 (77%). Ninety-day mortality was higher in class 2 versus class 1 (75% vs. 48%; P < 0.0001). Considerable overlap was observed between these subgroups and ARDS subphenotypes. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RT-PCR cycle threshold was associated with mortality in the hypoinflammatory but not the hyperinflammatory phenotype. Heterogeneity of treatment effect to corticosteroids was observed (P = 0.0295), with improved mortality in the hyperinflammatory phenotype and worse mortality in the hypoinflammatory phenotype, with the caveat that corticosteroid treatment was not randomized. Conclusions: We identified two COVID-19-related ARDS subgroups with differential outcomes, similar to previously described ARDS subphenotypes. SARS-CoV-2 PCR cycle threshold had differential value for predicting mortality in the subphenotypes. The subphenotypes had differential treatment responses to corticosteroids.


Adrenal Cortex Hormones/therapeutic use , COVID-19 Drug Treatment , Latent Class Analysis , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/drug therapy , Aged , COVID-19/complications , Cohort Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/classification , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/etiology , Retrospective Studies
13.
bioRxiv ; 2021 Jul 27.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34341789

Cardiac injury is associated with critical COVID-19, yet its etiology remains debated. To elucidate the pathogenic mechanisms of COVID-19-associated cardiac injury, we conducted a single-center prospective cohort study of 69 COVID-19 decedents. Of six cardiac histopathologic features, microthrombi was the most commonly detected (n=48, 70%). We tested associations of cardiac microthrombi with biomarkers of inflammation, cardiac injury, and fibrinolysis and with in-hospital antiplatelet therapy, therapeutic anticoagulation, and corticosteroid treatment, while adjusting for multiple clinical factors, including COVID-19 therapies. Higher peak ESR and CRP during hospitalization were independently associated with higher odds of microthrombi. Using single nuclei RNA-sequence analysis, we discovered an enrichment of pro-thrombotic/anti-fibrinolytic, extracellular matrix remodeling, and immune-potentiating signaling amongst cardiac fibroblasts in microthrombi-positive COVID-19 hearts relative to microthrombi-negative COVID-19. Non-COVID-19 non-failing hearts were used as reference controls. Our cumulative findings identify the specific transcriptomic changes in cardiac fibroblasts as salient features of COVID-19-associated cardiac microthrombi.

14.
J Clin Med ; 10(16)2021 Aug 11.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34441819

BACKGROUND: The progression of clinical manifestations in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) highlights the need to account for symptom duration at the time of hospital presentation in decision-making algorithms. METHODS: We performed a nested case-control analysis of 4103 adult patients with COVID-19 and at least 28 days of follow-up who presented to a New York City medical center. Multivariable logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis were used to identify predictors of poor outcome. RESULTS: Patients presenting to the hospital earlier in their disease course were older, had more comorbidities, and a greater proportion decompensated (<4 days, 41%; 4-8 days, 31%; >8 days, 26%). The first recorded oxygen delivery method was the most important predictor of decompensation overall in CART analysis. In patients with symptoms for <4, 4-8, and >8 days, requiring at least non-rebreather, age ≥ 63 years, and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio ≥ 5.1; requiring at least non-rebreather, IL-6 ≥ 24.7 pg/mL, and D-dimer ≥ 2.4 µg/mL; and IL-6 ≥ 64.3 pg/mL, requiring non-rebreather, and CRP ≥ 152.5 mg/mL in predictive models were independently associated with poor outcome, respectively. CONCLUSION: Symptom duration in tandem with initial clinical and laboratory markers can be used to identify patients with COVID-19 at increased risk for poor outcomes.

15.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 105(2): 517-524, 2021 06 14.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34125696

The global burden of sepsis is concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, where extensive pathogen diversity and limited laboratory capacity challenge targeted antimicrobial management of life-threatening infections. In this context, established and emerging rapid pathogen diagnostics may stratify sepsis patients into subgroups with prognostic and therapeutic relevance. In a prospective cohort of adults (age ≥18 years) hospitalized with suspected sepsis in Uganda, we stratified patients using rapid diagnostics for HIV, tuberculosis (TB), malaria, and influenza, and compared clinical characteristics and 30-day outcomes across these pathogen-driven subgroups. From April 2017 to August 2019, 301 adults were enrolled (median age, 32 years [interquartile range, 26-42 years]; female, n = 178 [59%]). A total of 157 patients (53%) were HIV infected. Sixty-one patients (20%) tested positive for malaria, 52 (17%), for TB (including 49 of 157 [31%] HIV-infected patients), and 17 (6%), for influenza. Co-infection was identified in 33 (11%) patients. The frequency of multi-organ failure, including shock and acute respiratory failure, was greatest among patients with HIV-associated TB. Mortality at 30 days was 19% among patients with malaria, 40% among patients with HIV-associated TB, 32% among HIV-infected patients without microbiological evidence of TB, 6% among patients with influenza, and 11% among patients without a pathogen identified. Despite improvements in anti-retroviral delivery, the burden of sepsis in Uganda remains concentrated among young, HIV-infected adults, with a high incidence of severe HIV-associated TB. In parallel with improvements in acute-care capacity, use of rapid pathogen diagnostics may enhance triage and antimicrobial management during emergency care for sepsis in sub-Saharan Africa, and could be used to enrich study populations when trialing pathogen-specific treatment strategies in the region.


HIV Infections , Sepsis , Tuberculosis , Adult , Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , Coinfection/complications , Female , HIV Infections/complications , HIV Infections/diagnosis , Hospitalization , Humans , Influenza, Human/diagnosis , Malaria/diagnosis , Male , Prognosis , Prospective Studies , Risk Factors , Sepsis/epidemiology , Sepsis/etiology , Sepsis/microbiology , Sepsis/pathology , Tuberculosis/complications , Tuberculosis/diagnosis , Uganda/epidemiology
17.
Thorax ; 76(12): 1242-1245, 2021 12.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33927016

The risk factors for development of fibrotic-like radiographic abnormalities after severe COVID-19 are incompletely described and the extent to which CT findings correlate with symptoms and physical function after hospitalisation remains unclear. At 4 months after hospitalisation, fibrotic-like patterns were more common in those who underwent mechanical ventilation (72%) than in those who did not (20%). We demonstrate that severity of initial illness, duration of mechanical ventilation, lactate dehydrogenase on admission and leucocyte telomere length are independent risk factors for fibrotic-like radiographic abnormalities. These fibrotic-like changes correlate with lung function, cough and measures of frailty, but not with dyspnoea.


COVID-19 , Pulmonary Fibrosis , Telomere , COVID-19/complications , Dyspnea , Fibrosis , Humans , Pulmonary Fibrosis/diagnostic imaging , Pulmonary Fibrosis/genetics , Pulmonary Fibrosis/virology , Telomere/genetics , Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome
18.
Immunity ; 54(4): 797-814.e6, 2021 04 13.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33765436

Immune response dynamics in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and their severe manifestations have largely been studied in circulation. Here, we examined the relationship between immune processes in the respiratory tract and circulation through longitudinal phenotypic, transcriptomic, and cytokine profiling of paired airway and blood samples from patients with severe COVID-19 relative to heathy controls. In COVID-19 airways, T cells exhibited activated, tissue-resident, and protective profiles; higher T cell frequencies correlated with survival and younger age. Myeloid cells in COVID-19 airways featured hyperinflammatory signatures, and higher frequencies of these cells correlated with mortality and older age. In COVID-19 blood, aberrant CD163+ monocytes predominated over conventional monocytes, and were found in corresponding airway samples and in damaged alveoli. High levels of myeloid chemoattractants in airways suggest recruitment of these cells through a CCL2-CCR2 chemokine axis. Our findings provide insights into immune processes driving COVID-19 lung pathology with therapeutic implications for targeting inflammation in the respiratory tract.


COVID-19/immunology , Lung/immunology , Myeloid Cells/immunology , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/blood , COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/pathology , Cytokines/immunology , Cytokines/metabolism , Humans , Inflammation , Longitudinal Studies , Lung/pathology , Macrophages/immunology , Macrophages/pathology , Middle Aged , Monocytes/immunology , Monocytes/pathology , Myeloid Cells/pathology , SARS-CoV-2 , T-Lymphocytes/immunology , T-Lymphocytes/pathology , Transcriptome , Young Adult
20.
Lancet Respir Med ; 9(2): 207-216, 2021 02.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33227237

Recent Bayesian reanalyses of prominent trials in critical illness have generated controversy by contradicting the initial conclusions based on conventional frequentist analyses. Many clinicians might be sceptical that Bayesian analysis, a philosophical and statistical approach that combines prior beliefs with data to generate probabilities, provides more useful information about clinical trials than the frequentist approach. In this Personal View, we introduce clinicians to the rationale, process, and interpretation of Bayesian analysis through a systematic review and reanalysis of interventional trials in critical illness. In the majority of cases, Bayesian and frequentist analyses agreed. In the remainder, Bayesian analysis identified interventions where benefit was probable despite the absence of statistical significance, where interpretation depended substantially on choice of prior distribution, and where benefit was improbable despite statistical significance. Bayesian analysis in critical care medicine can help to distinguish harm from uncertainty and establish the probability of clinically important benefit for clinicians, policy makers, and patients.


Clinical Decision-Making/methods , Clinical Trials as Topic/methods , Critical Care/methods , Research Design , Bayes Theorem , Clinical Trials as Topic/statistics & numerical data , Critical Care/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Probability
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