Challenges and the Way Forward in Demand-Forecasting Practices within the Ethiopian Public Pharmaceutical Supply Chain.

This study delves into the challenges of pharmaceutical forecasting within the Ethiopian public pharmaceutical supply chain, which is vital for ensuring medicine availability and optimizing healthcare delivery. t It aims to identify and analyze key hindrances to pharmaceutical forecasting in Ethiopia, employing qualitative analysis through semi-structured interviews with stakeholders. Thematic analysis using NVIVO 14 software reveals challenges including finance-related constraints, workforce shortages, and data quality issues. Financial challenges arise from funding uncertainties, causing delayed procurement and stockouts. Workforce shortages hinder accurate forecasting, while data quality issues result from incomplete and untimely reporting. Recommendations include prioritizing healthcare financing, investing in workforce development, and improving data quality through technological advancements and enhanced coordination among stakeholders.

Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016.

Importance: Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions. Objective: To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths. Exposures: Firearm ownership and access. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year. Results: Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (-0.2% [95% UI, -0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.21) and homicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.35). Conclusions and Relevance: This study estimated between 195 000 and 276 000 firearm injury deaths globally in 2016, the majority of which were firearm homicides. Despite an overall decrease in rates of firearm injury death since 1990, there was variation among countries and across demographic subgroups.

Current status, challenges and the way forward for clinical pharmacy service in Ethiopian public hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Clinical pharmacy service has evolved steadily over the past few decades and is now contributing to the 'patient care journey' at all stages. It is improving the safety and effectiveness of medicines and has made a significant contribution to the avoidance of medication errors. In Ethiopia, clinical pharmacy service is in its initial phase, being started in July 2013. This study therefore aimed at assessing the status, challenges and way forward of clinical pharmacy service in the country. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in six regional states and one city- administration in September 2014. A total of 51 hospitals were included in the study. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were employed for data collection. RESULTS: A total of 160 pharmacy graduates, and 51 pharmacy heads participated in the study. Internal Medicine and Pediatric wards were the major wards where the graduates provide clinical pharmacy service. Almost 94% of the new graduates were found to be involved in clinical pharmacy service, but 47% of them rated their service as poor. The overall satisfaction of the graduates was close to 36%. Thirteen hospitals discontinued and two hospitals not even initiated the service largely due to shortage of pharmacists and lack of management support. About 44% of the surveyed hospitals documented the clinical pharmacy service provided using either developed or adopted formats. Lack of awareness by the medical fraternity, high attrition rate, lack of support from the management as well as from the health care team, readiness of the graduates to deliver the service, and shortage of pharmacists were identified by the key informants as the major stumbling block to deliver clinical pharmacy service. CONCLUSION: Clinical pharmacy service is initiated in most of the surveyed hospitals and a large proportion of the graduates were involved in the service. Although there is a great enthusiasm to promote clinical pharmacy service in the surveyed hospitals, efforts made to institutionalize the service is minimal. Thus, concerted efforts need to be exerted to promote the service through organizing awareness forums as well as revisiting the curriculum.

Attitude and satisfaction of health care providers towards clinical pharmacy services in Ethiopia: A post-deployment survey.

BACKGROUND: Clinical pharmacy service has evolved steadily over the past few decades and is contributing to the 'patient care journey' at all stages. The service improves safety and effectiveness of medicines, thereby avoiding medication errors. As part of this global shift in pharmacy education and practice, Ethiopian Universities revamped the undergraduate pharmacy curriculum and the first graduates came out in July 2013. These graduates were immediately deployed in public hospital settings, with the ultimate aim of providing clinical pharmacy services. As such an initiative is new to the Ethiopian pharmacy sector, there is a need to do assessment of the health care providers' perception and satisfaction towards the service. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey using self-administered questionnaire was conducted in six regions and one-city administration of the country. Physicians, Health officers and Nurses working along with the new pharmacy graduates formed the study population. A total of 650 healthcare professionals participated in the study. Data were entered, cleaned and analyzed using appropriate statistical tools. RESULTS: Majority of the health care providers agreed that clinical pharmacy service could have a significant contribution to the patient care. A large proportion of them (70-90 %) had a positive attitude, although there appeared to be some differences across professions. About 50 % of the professionals were of the opinion that patient care should be left to the health care providers and pharmacists should concentrate on drug products. In addition, the same proportion of respondents said that the setup in their respective hospital was appropriate for provision of clinical pharmacy service. Multivariable analysis indicated that attitude of the health care providers was significantly associated with year of experience. CONCLUSIONS: A large proportion of the health care providers had positive attitude towards the service, although the extent of the service was below their expectation. Hence, efforts should be in place to organize continuous professional training for pharmacists and awareness creation forums for other healthcare professionals.