HIV-TRACE (TRAnsmission Cluster Engine): a Tool for Large Scale Molecular Epidemiology of HIV-1 and Other Rapidly Evolving Pathogens.

In modern applications of molecular epidemiology, genetic sequence data are routinely used to identify clusters of transmission in rapidly evolving pathogens, most notably HIV-1. Traditional 'shoe-leather' epidemiology infers transmission clusters by tracing chains of partners sharing epidemiological connections (e.g., sexual contact). Here, we present a computational tool for identifying a molecular transmission analog of such clusters: HIV-TRACE (TRAnsmission Cluster Engine). HIV-TRACE implements an approach inspired by traditional epidemiology, by identifying chains of partners whose viral genetic relatedness imply direct or indirect epidemiological connections. Molecular transmission clusters are constructed using codon-aware pairwise alignment to a reference sequence followed by pairwise genetic distance estimation among all sequences. This approach is computationally tractable and is capable of identifying HIV-1 transmission clusters in large surveillance databases comprising tens or hundreds of thousands of sequences in near real time, that is, on the order of minutes to hours. HIV-TRACE is available at www.hivtrace.org and from www.github.com/veg/hivtrace, along with the accompanying result visualization module from www.github.com/veg/hivtrace-viz. Importantly, the approach underlying HIV-TRACE is not limited to the study of HIV-1 and can be applied to study outbreaks and epidemics of other rapidly evolving pathogens.

Determining the phylogenetic and phylogeographic origin of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H7N3) in Mexico.

Highly pathogenic (HP) avian influenza virus (AIV) H7N3 outbreaks occurred 3 times in the Americas in the past 10 years and caused severe economic loss in the affected regions. In June/July 2012, new HP H7N3 outbreaks occurred at commercial farms in Jalisco, Mexico. Outbreaks continued to be identified in neighbouring states in Mexico till August 2013. To explore the origin of this outbreak, time resolved phylogenetic trees were generated from the eight segments of full-length AIV sequences in North America using BEAST. Location, subtype, avian host species and pathogenicity were modelled as discrete traits upon the trees using continuous time Markov chains. A further joint analysis among segments was performed using a hierarchical phylogenetic model (HPM) which allowed trait rates (location, subtype, host species) to be jointly inferred across different segments. The complete spatial diffusion process was visualised through virtual globe software. Our result indicated the Mexico HP H7N3 originated from the large North America low pathogenicity AIV pool through complicated reassortment events. Different segments were contributed by wild waterfowl from different N. American flyways. Five of the eight segments (HA, NA, NP, M, NS) were introduced from wild birds migrating along the central North American flyway, and PB2, PB1 and PA were introduced via the western North American flyway. These results highlight a potential role for Mexico as a hotspot of virus reassortment as it is where wild birds from different migration routes mix during the winter.