Estimating human papillomavirus vaccine efficacy from a single-arm trial: proof-of-principle in the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends a 1- or 2-dose human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination schedule for females aged 9 to 20 years. Studies confirming the efficacy of a single dose and vaccine modifications are needed, but randomized controlled trials are costly and face logistical and ethical challenges. We propose a resource-efficient single-arm trial design that uses untargeted and unaffected HPV types as controls. METHODS: We estimated HPV vaccine efficacy (VE) from a single arm by comparing 2 ratios: the ratio of the rate of persistent incident infection with vaccine-targeted HPV 16 and 18 (HPV 16/18) and cross-protected types HPV 31, 33, and 45 (HPV 31/33/45) to vaccine-unaffected types HPV 35, 39, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59, and 66 (HPV 35/39/51/52/56/58/59/66) vs the ratio of prevalence of these types at the time of trial enrollment. We compare VE estimates using only data from the bivalent HPV 16/18 vaccine arm of the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial with published VE estimates that used both the vaccine and control arms. RESULTS: Our single-arm approach among 3727 women yielded VE estimates against persistent HPV 16/18 infections similar to published 2-arm estimates from the trial (according-to-protocol cohort: 91.0% , 95% CI = 82.9% to 95.3% [single-arm] vs 90.9% , 95% CI = 82.0% to 95.9% [2-arm]; intention-to-treat cohort: 41.7%, 95% CI = 32.4% to 49.8% [single-arm] vs 49.0% , 95% CI = 38.1% to 58.1% [2-arm]). VE estimates were also similar in analytic subgroups (number of doses received; baseline HPV serology status). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that a single-arm design yields valid VE estimates with similar precision to a randomized controlled trial. Single-arm studies can reduce the sample size and costs of future HPV vaccine trials while avoiding concerns related to unvaccinated control groups. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00128661.

Rationale and design of a double-blind randomized non-inferiority clinical trial to evaluate one or two doses of vaccine against human papillomavirus including an epidemiologic survey to estimate vaccine efficacy: The Costa Rica ESCUDDO trial.

HPV vaccination of adolescent girls is the most effective measure to prevent cervical cancer. The World Health Organization recommends that adolescent girls receive two doses of vaccine but only a small proportion of girls from regions with the highest disease burden are vaccinated because of cost and logistical considerations. Our Costa Rica HPV Vaccine trial suggested that one dose of the bivalent HPV vaccine provides robust and lasting protection against persistent HPV infections for over a decade. Data from a post-licensure trial of the quadrivalent vaccine in India also suggested that a single dose may be effective in reducing cervical cancer risk. To formally compare one versus two doses of the bivalent and nonavalent HPV vaccines, we implemented a large, randomized, double-blind trial to investigate the non-inferiority of one compared to two vaccine doses in the prevention of new HPV16/18 infections that persist 6 or more months. Bivalent and nonavalent vaccines will be evaluated separately. The trial enrolled and randomized (1:1:1:1 to 1- and 2-dose arms of the bivalent and nonavalent vaccines) 20,330 girls 12 to 16 years old residing in Costa Rica. Trial participants are followed every 6 months for up to 5 years. We also aim to estimate vaccine efficacy by comparing the rates of 6 month persistent infection in unvaccinated women with the rates in the follow-up visits of trial participants. We included one survey of unvaccinated women at the start of the study (N = 4452) and will include another survey concomitant with follow up visits of trial participants at year 4.5 (planned N = 3000). Survey participants attend two visits 6 months appart. Herein, we present the rationale, design, and enrolled study population of the ESCUDDO trial. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03180034.

The cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus self-collection among cervical cancer screening non-attenders in El Salvador.

Cervical cancer screening with human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing has been incorporated into El Salvador's national guidelines. The feasibility of home-based HPV self-collection among women who do not attend screening at the clinic (i.e., non-attenders) has been demonstrated, but cost-effectiveness has not been evaluated. Using cost and compliance data from El Salvador, we informed a mathematical microsimulation model of HPV infection and cervical carcinogenesis to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis from the societal perspective. We estimated the reduction in cervical cancer risk, lifetime cost per woman (2017 US$), life expectancy, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER, 2017 US$ per year of life saved [YLS]) of a program with home-based self-collection of HPV (facilitated by health promoters) for the 18% of women reluctant to screen at the clinic. The model was calibrated to epidemiologic data from El Salvador. We evaluated health and economic outcomes of the self-collection intervention for women aged 30 to 59 years, alone and in concert with clinic-based HPV provider-collection. Home-based self-collection of HPV was projected to reduce population cervical cancer risk by 14% and cost $1210 per YLS compared to no screening. An integrated program reaching 99% coverage with both provider- and home-based self-collection of HPV reduced cancer risk by 74% (compared to no screening), and cost $1210 per YLS compared to provider-collection alone. Self-collection facilitated by health promoters is a cost-effective strategy for increasing screening uptake in El Salvador.

The cost-effectiveness of implementing HPV testing for cervical cancer screening in El Salvador.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of HPV-based screening and management algorithms for HPV-positive women in phase 2 of the Cervical Cancer Prevention in El Salvador (CAPE) demonstration, relative to the status quo of Pap-based screening. METHODS: Data from phase 2 of the CAPE demonstration (n=8000 women) were used to inform a mathematical model of HPV infection and cervical cancer. The model was used to project the lifetime health and economic outcomes of HPV testing every 5 years (age 30-65 years), with referral to colposcopy for HPV-positive women; HPV testing every 5 years (age 30-65 years), with immediate cryotherapy for eligible HPV-positive women; and Pap testing every 2 years (age 20-65 years), with referral to colposcopy for Pap-positive women. RESULTS: Despite slight decreases in the proportion of HPV-positive women who received treatment relative to phase 1, the health impact of screening in phase 2 remained stable, reducing cancer risk by 58.5%. As in phase 1, HPV testing followed by cryotherapy for eligible HPV-positive women remained the least costly and most effective strategy (US$490 per year of life saved). CONCLUSION: HPV-based screening followed by immediate cryotherapy in all eligible women would be very cost-effective in El Salvador.

Cost-effectiveness of HPV-based cervical cancer screening in the public health system in Nicaragua.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing (versus Papanicolaou (Pap)-based screening) for cervical cancer screening in Nicaragua. DESIGN: A previously developed Monte Carlo simulation model of the natural history of HPV infection and cervical cancer was calibrated to epidemiological data from Nicaragua. Cost data inputs were derived using a micro-costing approach in Carazo, Chontales and Chinandega departments; test performance data were from a demonstration project in Masaya department. SETTING: Nicaragua's public health sector facilities. PARTICIPANTS: Women aged 30-59 years. INTERVENTIONS: Screening strategies included (1) Pap testing every 3 years, with referral to colposcopy for women with an atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or worse result ('Pap'); (2) HPV testing every 5 years, with referral to cryotherapy for HPV-positive eligible women (HPV cryotherapy or 'HPV-Cryo'); (3) HPV testing every 5 years, with referral to triage with visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) for HPV-positive women ('HPV-VIA'); and (4) HPV testing every 5 years, with referral to Pap testing for HPV-positive women ('HPV-Pap'). OUTCOME MEASURES: Reduction in lifetime risk of cancer and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER; 2015 US$ per year of life saved (YLS)). RESULTS: HPV-based screening strategies were more effective than Pap testing. HPV-Cryo was the least costly and most effective strategy, reducing lifetime cancer risk by 29.5% and outperforming HPV-VIA, HPV-Pap and Pap only, which reduced cancer risk by 19.4%, 12.2% and 10.8%, respectively. With an ICER of US$320/YLS, HPV-Cryo every 5 years would be very cost-effective using a threshold based on Nicaragua's per capita gross domestic product of US$2090. Findings were robust across sensitivity analyses on test performance, coverage, compliance and cost parameters. CONCLUSIONS: HPV testing is very cost-effective compared with Pap testing in Nicaragua, due to higher test sensitivity and the relatively lower number of visits required. Increasing compliance with recommended follow-up will further improve the health benefits and value for public health dollars.

The comparative and cost-effectiveness of HPV-based cervical cancer screening algorithms in El Salvador.

Cervical cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among women in El Salvador. Utilizing data from the Cervical Cancer Prevention in El Salvador (CAPE) demonstration project, we assessed the health and economic impact of HPV-based screening and two different algorithms for the management of women who test HPV-positive, relative to existing Pap-based screening. We calibrated a mathematical model of cervical cancer to epidemiologic data from El Salvador and compared three screening algorithms for women aged 30-65 years: (i) HPV screening every 5 years followed by referral to colposcopy for HPV-positive women (Colposcopy Management [CM]); (ii) HPV screening every 5 years followed by treatment with cryotherapy for eligible HPV-positive women (Screen and Treat [ST]); and (iii) Pap screening every 2 years followed by referral to colposcopy for Pap-positive women (Pap). Potential harms and complications associated with overtreatment were not assessed. Under base case assumptions of 65% screening coverage, HPV-based screening was more effective than Pap, reducing cancer risk by ∼ 60% (Pap: 50%). ST was the least costly strategy, and cost $2,040 per year of life saved. ST remained the most attractive strategy as visit compliance, costs, coverage, and test performance were varied. We conclude that a screen-and-treat algorithm within an HPV-based screening program is very cost-effective in El Salvador, with a cost-effectiveness ratio below per capita GDP.

Burden of Human Papillomavirus among Haitian Immigrants in Miami, Florida: Community-Based Participatory Research in Action.

Background. Haitian immigrant women residing in Little Haiti, a large ethnic enclave in Miami-Dade County, experience the highest cervical cancer incidence rates in South Florida. While this disparity primarily reflects lack of access to screening with cervical cytology, the burden of human papillomavirus (HPV) which causes virtually all cases of cervical cancer worldwide, varies by population and may contribute to excess rate of disease. Our study examined the prevalence of oncogenic and nononcogenic HPV types and risk factors for HPV infection in Little Haiti. Methods. As part of an ongoing community-based participatory research initiative, community health workers recruited study participants between 2007 and 2008, instructed women on self-collecting cervicovaginal specimens, and collected sociodemographic and healthcare access data. Results. Of the 242 women who contributed adequate specimens, the overall prevalence of HPV was 20.7%, with oncogenic HPV infections (13.2% of women) outnumbering nononcogenic infections (7.4%). Age-specific prevalence of oncogenic HPV was highest in women 18-30 years (38.9%) although the prevalence of oncogenic HPV does not appear to be elevated relative to the general U.S. population. The high prevalence of oncogenic types in women over 60 years may indicate a substantial number of persistent infections at high risk of progression to precancer.

Persistence of concurrent infections with multiple human papillomavirus types: a population-based cohort study.

The presence of more than one human papillomavirus (HPV) genotype may influence the duration of prevalently detected infections. This analysis included 1,646 infections detected at enrollment in 980 women from the Guanacaste, Costa Rica, cohort who were actively followed up every 6-12 months for up to 8 years. We categorized HPV infections as single or multiple types. Persistence of infections was estimated using discrete-time survival analysis. The difference between the duration of single and that of concurrent multiple type-specific prevalent HPV infections was not significant (P = .9; log-rank test). Concurrent, prevalent detection of additional HPV types did not change the likelihood of viral persistence.