Differential pulse oximetry readings between ethnic groups and delayed transfer to intensive care units.

BACKGROUND: Pulse oximeters are widely used to monitor blood oxygen saturations, although concerns exist that they are less accurate in individuals with pigmented skin. AIMS: This study aimed to determine if patients with pigmented skin were more severely unwell at the period of transfer to intensive care units (ICUs) than individuals with White skin. METHODS: Using data from a large teaching hospital, measures of clinical severity at the time of transfer of patients with COVID-19 infection to ICUs were assessed, and how this varied by ethnic group. RESULTS: Data were available on 748 adults. Median pulse oximetry demonstrated similar oxygen saturations at the time of transfer to ICUs (Kruskal-Wallis test, P = 0.51), although median oxygen saturation measurements from arterial blood gases at this time demonstrated lower oxygen saturations in patients classified as Indian/Pakistani ethnicity (91.6%) and Black/Mixed ethnicity (93.0%), compared to those classified as a White ethnicity (94.4%, Kruskal-Wallis test, P = 0.005). There were significant differences in mean respiratory rates in these patients (P < 0.0001), ranging from 26 breaths/min in individuals with White ethnicity to 30 breaths/min for those classified as Indian/Pakistani ethnicity and 31 for those who were classified as Black/Mixed ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: These data are consistent with the hypothesis that differential measurement error for pulse oximeter readings negatively impact on the escalation of clinical care in individuals from other than White ethnic groups. This has implications for healthcare in Africa and South-East Asia and may contribute to differences in health outcomes across ethnic groups globally.

Obesity and type 2 diabetes are important risk factors underlying previously undiagnosed cirrhosis in general practice: a cross-sectional study using transient elastography.

BACKGROUND: Rising cirrhosis incidence and mortality in the United Kingdom has been attributed predominantly to excess alcohol consumption. However, metabolic risk factors such as Type 2 diabetes and obesity may also be important. AIM: To screen at-risk individuals in general practice for undetected cirrhosis using transient elastography and study the risk factors underlying these cases. METHODS: The study was undertaken in 4 general practices (adult patient population 20 868) between February 2012 and September 2014. Patients with defined risk factors for chronic liver disease (hazardous alcohol use and/or Type 2 diabetes) were identified from the General Practice electronic records and invited for transient elastography. Elevated liver stiffness was defined as ≥8 kPa. Cirrhosis was confirmed by established histological, radiological and biochemical methods. RESULTS: Two thousand three hundred and sixty eight patients were invited for transient elastography and 899/919 who attended (97.8%) had valid measurements. Of these 230 patients had elevated liver stiffness (25.6%) and 27 had cirrhosis (2.9%). Risk factors for new cirrhosis diagnoses were obesity and/or Type 2 diabetes in 16 patients (59.3%), alcohol alone in 3 (11.1%) and both alcohol and obesity and/or diabetes in eight (29.6%). Presence of cirrhosis was significantly increased in obese patients with Type 2 diabetes or hazardous alcohol use compared to non-obese (odds ratio 9.4 [95% CI 2.2-40.9] and 5.6 [95% CI 1.6-19.7] respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The number of new cases of cirrhosis diagnosed clearly demonstrates that existing estimates of prevalence are likely to be gross underestimates. Obesity was an important risk factor for cirrhosis within both alcohol users and diabetics.

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma among individuals with different aetiologies of cirrhosis: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Among patients with cirrhosis, only those determined to be at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) should undergo surveillance. However, little is known about how different aetiologies of cirrhosis affect risk for HCC. AIM: To quantify the cumulative incidence of HCC among a representative population of people with cirrhosis of the liver of varying aetiology. METHODS: We identified subjects with hepatic cirrhosis from the UK's General Practice Research Database (1987-2006). Diagnoses of HCC were obtained from linked national cancer registries (1971-2006). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios. The predicted 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC for each aetiology of cirrhosis was estimated while accounting for competing risks of death from any cause and liver transplant. RESULTS: Among 3107 people with cirrhosis, the adjusted relative risk of HCC was increased twofold to threefold among people with viral and autoimmune/metabolic aetiologies, compared to those with alcohol-associated cirrhosis. The 10-year predicted cumulative incidence estimates of HCC for each aetiology were alcohol, 1.2%; chronic viral hepatitis, 4.0%; autoimmune or metabolic disease, 3.2%; and cryptogenic, 1.1%. CONCLUSIONS: In a population-based study in the UK, people with cirrhosis have an estimated cumulative 10-year incidence of HCC of 4% or lower. Cumulative incidence varies with aetiology such that individuals with alcohol or cryptogenic cirrhosis have the lowest risk for HCC. These findings provide important information for cost-effectiveness analyses of HCC surveillance.

A comparison of the recording of comorbidity in primary and secondary care by using the Charlson Index to predict short-term and long-term survival in a routine linked data cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Hospital admission records provide snapshots of clinical histories for a subset of the population admitted to hospital. In contrast, primary care records provide continuous clinical histories for complete populations, but might lack detail about inpatient stays. Therefore, combining primary and secondary care records should improve the ability of comorbidity scores to predict survival in population-based studies, and provide better adjustment for case-mix differences when assessing mortality outcomes. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: English primary and secondary care 1 January 2005 to 1 January 2010. PARTICIPANTS: All patients 20 years and older registered to a primary care practice contributing to the linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink from England. OUTCOME: The performance of the Charlson index with mortality was compared when derived from either primary or secondary care data or both. This was assessed in relation to short-term and long-term survival, age, consultation rate, and specific acute and chronic diseases. RESULTS: 657,264 people were followed up from 1 January 2005. Although primary care recorded more comorbidity than secondary care, the resulting C statistics for the Charlson index remained similar: 0.86 and 0.87, respectively. Higher consultation rates and restricted age bands reduced the performance of the Charlson index, but the index's excellent performance persisted over longer follow-up; the C statistic was 0.87 over 1 year, and 0.85 over all 5 years of follow-up. The Charlson index derived from secondary care comorbidity had a greater effect than primary care comorbidity in reducing the association of upper gastrointestinal bleeding with mortality. However, they had a similar effect in reducing the association of diabetes with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the use of the Charlson index from linked data and show that secondary care comorbidity coding performed at least as well as that derived from primary care in predicting survival.

Variation in the risk of venous thromboembolism in people with colorectal cancer: a population-based cohort study from England.

BACKGROUND: Patients with colorectal cancer are at high risk of developing venous thromboembolism(VTE), and recent international guidelines have advised extended prophylaxis for some of these patients following surgery or during chemotherapy. However, our understanding of which patients are at increased risk, and to what extent, is limited. OBJECTIVES: To determine absolute and relative rates of VTE among patients with colorectal cancer according to Dukes stage, surgical intervention,and chemotherapy. METHODS: We analyzed data from four linked databases from 1997 to 2006: the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, linked to Hospital Episode Statistics, Cancer Registry data, and Office for National Statistics cause of death data, all from England. Rates were compared by the use of Cox regression. RESULTS: There were 10 309 patients with colorectal cancer, and 555 developed VTE (5.4%). The incidence varied by Dukes stage, being three-fold higher among Dukes D patients than among Dukes A patients (hazard ratio [HR] 3.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.95­4.84), and 40% higher for those receiving chemotherapy than for those not receiving chemotherapy(HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.14­1.69). The risk following surgery varied by stage of disease and chemotherapy, with Dukes A patients having a low incidence of VTE (0.74%; 95% CI 0.28­1.95) at 6 months,with all events occurring within 28 days of surgery, as compared with Dukes B and Dukes C patients, whose risk at 6 months was ~ 2%. CONCLUSION: Twenty-eight days of prophylaxis following surgery for colorectal cancer is appropriate for Dukes A patients. However, Dukes B and Dukes C patients receiving postoperative chemotherapy have a longer duration of risk.

Aspirin and other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use and colorectal cancer survival: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Aspirin has been widely reported to reduce the incidence of colorectal cancer. Recently, a survival benefit after diagnosis has also been suggested. Data regarding such a benefit are to date contradictory. This study examines the effect of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use on mortality in colorectal cancer in a larger patient cohort than previously to further clarify this effect, especially in terms of exposure timing and dosing. METHODS: A study using the General Practice Research Database assessed whether aspirin or NSAID exposure in the year immediately following diagnosis affected all-cause mortality in a cohort of 13 994 colorectal cancer patients. Cox proportional hazards modelling adjusted for age, gender, smoking, body mass index and comorbidity. RESULTS: Overall mortality was slightly lower in patients treated with aspirin, (hazard ratio (HR)=0.91; 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.82-1.00). This effect was observed only in patients treated with prophylaxis-dose aspirin (HR=0.89, CI=0.80-0.98) and only in patients taking aspirin before diagnosis (HR=0.86, CI=0.76-0.98). Differential effects were observed depending on the time after diagnosis. Up to 5 years, a reduction in mortality was observed for aspirin users (HR=0.83, CI=0.75-0.92), whereas after 10 years there was an increase in mortality (HR=1.94, CI=1.26-2.99). For NSAID use, no significant effect was observed on overall mortality (HR=1.07, CI=0.98-1.15). High-dose NSAID use was associated with a slight increase in mortality (HR=1.41, CI=1.26-1.56). INTERPRETATION: These findings provide further indication that aspirin may be beneficial in reducing mortality in colorectal cancer during the first 5 years. The same cannot be said for other NSAIDs, where a small increase in mortality was observed.

The long-term risk of malignancy following a diagnosis of coeliac disease or dermatitis herpetiformis: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: People with coeliac disease are known to be at increased risk of malignancy; however, long-term risks of malignancy beyond 10-15 years are largely unstudied. AIM: To estimate how long an increased risk of malignancy among coeliac disease patients persists following diagnosis and treatment, using data from a cohort with an average follow-up of 25 years. METHODS: People with coeliac disease diagnosed in the Lothian region of Scotland, United Kingdom, were followed up from January 1970 or the date of coeliac disease diagnosis (whichever was later) until the first occurrence of death, emigration, cancer diagnosis or the end of 2004. Standardised incidence ratios were calculated to compare the cancer incidence rates among this group with those from the population of Scotland. RESULTS: Overall, the risk of any malignancy in coeliac disease patients compared with the general population was increased 40% [standardised incidence ratio (SIR) = 1.41; 95% CI 1.09-1.78]. An increased risk for cancer overall persisted for up to 15 years, beyond which no overall increase in malignancy risk was observed, although the risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma remained raised beyond 15 years (SIR = 5.15; 95% CI 1.40-13.2). In total, there were 14 non-Hodgkin's lymphomas in the cohort, providing an overall incidence of 1.3 per 1000 person-years. CONCLUSIONS: The overall risk of malignancy in coeliac patients declines with time after diagnosis and is not significantly increased after 15 years. Most of the increased risk can be attributed to the development of haematological malignancies, despite their very low absolute rate of occurrence.

The rate of decompensation and clinical progression of disease in people with cirrhosis: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We lack population-based estimates of the rate of decompensation in people with compensated cirrhosis as well as estimates of the manner in which the disease progresses once identified. AIM: To determine the rate of decompensation and clinical progression of disease in patients with cirrhosis based upon clinical symptoms recorded electronically in general practice data. METHODS: Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we modelled the rate of decompensation for patients from the UK General Practice Research Database with a diagnosis of cirrhosis between 1987 and 2002. We determined the clinical progression in the first year following diagnosis and subsequently categorizing patients through time according to a simple clinical staging system agreed at the Baveno IV consensus conference. RESULTS: The rate of decompensation in patients with compensated cirrhosis was found to be 11% overall. The rate of decompensation was higher in the first year (at 31% compared with 7.3% afterwards) and in patients with an alcoholic aetiology. Patients with compensated cirrhosis had a 1-year probability of proceeding directly to death of 7% compared with 20% in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. CONCLUSIONS: Using data recorded in general practice records, it is possible to determine the rate of decompensation and the clinical progression of disease in people with cirrhosis.

Outcomes following early red blood cell transfusion in acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

BACKGROUND: Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB) accounts for 14% of RBC units transfused in the UK. In exsanguinating AUGIB the value of RBC transfusion is self evident, but in less severe bleeding its value is less obvious. AIM: To examine the relationship between early RBC transfusion, re-bleeding and mortality following AUGIB, which is one of the most common indications for red blood cell (RBC) transfusion. METHOD: Data were collected on 4441 AUGIB patients presenting to UK hospitals. The relationship between early RBC transfusion, re-bleeding and death was examined using logistic regression. RESULTS: 44% were transfused RBCs within 12 hours of admission. In patients transfused with an initial haemoglobin of <8 g/dl, re-bleeding occurred in 23% and mortality was 13% compared with a re-bleeding rate of 15%, and mortality of 13% in those not transfused. In patients transfused with haemoglobin >8 g/dl, re-bleeding occurred in 24% and mortality was 11% compared with a re-bleeding rate of 6.7%, and mortality of 4.3% in those not transfused. After adjusting for Rockall score and initial haemoglobin, early transfusion was associated with a two-fold increased risk of re-bleeding (Odds ratio 2.26, 95% CI 1.76-2.90) and a 28% increase in mortality (Odds ratio 1.28, 95% CI 0.94-1.74). CONCLUSIONS: Early RBC transfusion in AUGIB was associated with a two-fold increased risk of re-bleeding and an increase in mortality, although the latter was not statistically significant. Although these findings could be due to residual confounding, they indicate that a randomized comparison of restrictive and liberal transfusion policies in AUGIB is urgently required.

The antecedents of biliary cancer: a primary care case-control study in the United Kingdom.

In a case-control study using a large UK primary care database, we found that non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs had no protective effect against biliary carcinomas (cholangiocarcinoma and gall bladder cancer). Increased risks were observed for cigarette smoking, diabetes, gallstone disease and obesity.

The epidemiology of haemochromatosis: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The discovery of the HFE genotype has revolutionized the diagnosis of haemochromatosis, changing the associated mortality and morbidity. AIM: To investigate the clinical significance of a diagnosis of haemochromatosis. METHODS: In a cohort study, we identified 501 people with haemochromatosis and 4950 age- and gender-matched controls from the UK General Practice Research Database between 1987 and 2002. RESULTS: The incidence of a diagnosis of haemochromatosis increased approximately 2-fold over the study period and was associated with a 2.2-fold increase in mortality [hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.6-3.0]. There was no increase in extra hepatic malignancy, but an absolute risk excess of liver cancer of 0.89% per year. Diabetes, impotence, osteoarthritis and crystal arthritis were associated with haemochromatosis with odds ratios of 5.4 (95% CI, 4.1-7.0), 2.7(95% CI, 1.8-4.0), 1.9(95% CI, 1.5-2.4) and 2.1(95% CI, 1.4-3.1) respectively. CONCLUSION: Increasing numbers of people are being diagnosed with haemochromatosis, and the mortality associated with this disease remains high. However, people are living with considerably lower levels of morbidity than previously reported. This encouragingly suggests earlier diagnoses are being made, prior to the development of complications.

Is an internal comparison better than using national data when estimating mortality in longitudinal studies?

BACKGROUND: Discrepancies between the results of different studies looking at mortality in similar disease cohorts led us to consider the impact of methodology upon outcome. METHODS: Cohort studies were carried out using age, sex, practice, and calendar time matched control groups in the general practice research database. Data were used on all subjects with inflammatory bowel disease, coeliac disease, or Barrett's oesophagus. Mortality data for the population of England and Wales were obtained from the UK Office for National Statistics. The study compared hazard ratios (HR) for mortality using the matched controls to those found when an indirect standardisation to the mortality experience of England and Wales was carried out. RESULTS: For all three conditions the mortality risk was slightly lower when the national population data were used compared with the internal comparison group (coeliac disease HR 1.33 v standardised mortality ratios (SMR) 1.25, Barrett's oesophagus HR 1.32 v SMR 1.32, inflammatory bowel disease HR 1.50 v SMR 1.34). CONCLUSIONS: A bias was found towards underestimating mortality risk when cohort studies use national population death rates as a comparator. Estimates obtained when an internal comparison group has been used are probably more appropriate.

Risk of schizophrenia in people with coeliac disease, ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease: a general population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Recently, interest has been revived in whether people with coeliac disease, in contrast to other inflammatory gastrointestinal diseases, have an increased risk of schizophrenia. AIM: To compare the risk of schizophrenia in people diagnosed with coeliac disease, ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease with the general population. METHODS: We used data from the UK General Practice Research Database. People with coeliac disease, Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis were matched individually with five age-, sex- and general practice-matched controls. The prevalence of schizophrenia was calculated and compared between disease groups and their respective controls. We calculated odds ratios for schizophrenia using conditional logistic regression adjusting for smoking status. RESULTS: In people with coeliac disease, Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis the prevalence of schizophrenia was 0.25%, 0.27% and 0.24%, respectively, compared with a general population prevalence of 0.37%. The adjusted odds ratios showed no association between schizophrenia and gastrointestinal disease (coeliac disease vs. controls 0.76, 95% CI: 0.41-1.4; Crohn's disease vs. controls 0.74, 95% CI: 0.44-1.3; ulcerative colitis 0.71, 95% CI: 0.44-1.1). CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to recent findings we found no evidence of an increased risk of schizophrenia in people with coeliac disease compared with the general population.

Does concurrent prescription of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs substantially increase the risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding?

BACKGROUND: A 15-fold increased risk of gastrointestinal bleeding has been reported with concurrent use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. Recent guidance cautions against concurrent prescription, particularly in older people. AIM: To quantify the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding associated with current exposure to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, and both drugs concurrently. METHODS: We conducted a case-control analysis of 11,261 cases with upper gastrointestinal bleeding and 53,156 controls matched by gender, age and general practice from computerized primary care data. We coupled this with self-controlled case series analysis. RESULTS: Both drugs were associated with a twofold increased risk of gastrointestinal bleeding (odds ratio =2.38, 95% confidence interval 2.08-2.72 for selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and odds ratio = 2.15, 95% confidence interval 2.02-2.28 for non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs). This increased risk was marginally higher for concurrent prescription (odds ratio = 2.93, 95% confidence interval 2.25-3.82). The self-controlled analysis showed a greater incidence rate ratio for gastrointestinal bleeding with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (2.71, 95% confidence interval 2.51-2.91) and lower incidence rate ratio with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (1.71, 95% confidence interval 1.48-1.98). The incidence rate ratio when both drugs were combined was 3.25, 95% confidence interval 1.95-5.42. Estimates were similar after restricting to people over 80 years of age. Increased risk of gastrointestinal bleeding was not specifically related to class of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and was similar when we looked at tricyclic anti-depressants. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding is not substantially increased when non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors are prescribed together, compared with their use alone.

Fertility and pregnancy-related events in women with celiac disease: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Previous studies have raised concern about reduced fertility and increased adverse pregnancy-related events in women with celiac disease, but none has estimated overall fertility compared with the general female population. METHODS: We compared computerized primary care data for 1521 women with celiac disease with data for 7732 age- and practice-matched women without celiac disease. We estimated population-based rates of fertility and adverse pregnancy outcomes. RESULTS: Crude fertility rates were 48.2 and 47.7 live births per 1000 person-years for women with and without celiac disease, respectively (rate ratio, 1.01; 95% confidence interval, 0.90-1.14). Age-specific fertility rates showed that women with celiac disease had lower fertility when younger but higher fertility when older compared with women without celiac disease. This increase in relative fertility with increasing age held whether women had treated or untreated celiac disease. Risks of cesarean section (odds ratio, 1.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.70) and miscarriage (rate ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.61) were moderately higher in women with celiac disease, but risks of assisted birth, breech birth, preeclampsia, postpartum hemorrhage, ectopic pregnancy, stillbirth, and termination were similar. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, women with celiac disease have fertility similar to that of the general female population, but they have their babies at an older age. Although our findings may reflect a disease effect, the age shift in fertility rates and the increase in cesarean section risk is consistent with socioeconomic or educational advantages of women with celiac disease.

Risk of malignancy in diagnosed coeliac disease: a 24-year prospective, population-based, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is recent evidence from studies of hospitalized and of undiagnosed patients that the risk of lymphoma for people with coeliac disease may be lower than previously thought. In addition, there have been no precise estimates of small bowel lymphoma risk due to a lack of population data. AIM: To examine these and other malignant risks in a cohort of patients more typical of those seen in routine clinical practice. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of incident malignancy rates in patients with coeliac disease in southern Derbyshire compared with general population figures. RESULTS: During 5684 person years of follow-up 31 malignancies (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) occurred in comparison with 30.30 expected [standardized incidence ratio (SIR) 1.02 (0.69-1.45)]. There were four non-Hodgkin's lymphomas (0.69 expected) SIR 5.81 (1.58-14.86), of which one originated in small bowel (0.02 expected) SIR 40.51 (1.03-225.68). GI malignancy occurred in nine (5.71 expected) SIR 1.58 (0.72-2.99), and breast cancer in three (5.08 expected) SIR 0.59 (0.12-1.73). CONCLUSIONS: There is no increase in the risk of incident malignancy in this population and the risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in general or of the small bowel is lower than previously found from UK coeliac cohorts.

Risk of vascular disease in adults with diagnosed coeliac disease: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that vascular disease mortality may be reduced in coeliac disease because of lower levels of blood pressure, cholesterol and body mass. AIM: To examine whether people with coeliac disease are at reduced risk of various vascular diseases. METHODS: We identified 3,790 adults with diagnosed coeliac disease and 17,925 age- and sex-matched controls in the General Practice Research Database. We estimated odds ratios for diagnosed hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia and atrial fibrillation and hazard ratios for myocardial infarction and stroke. RESULTS: Adults with coeliac disease, compared with controls, were less likely to have had a diagnosis of hypertension [11% vs. 15%, odds ratio 0.68 (95% confidence interval: 0.60-0.76)] or hypercholesterolaemia [3.0% vs. 4.8%, odds ration 0.58 (95% confidence interval: 0.47-0.72)] but slightly more likely to have had atrial fibrillation [2.1% vs. 1.7%, odds ratio 1.26 (95% confidence interval: 0.97-1.64)]. The hazard ratio for myocardial infarction was 0.85 (95% confidence interval: 0.63-1.13), while the hazard ratio for stroke was 1.29 (95% confidence interval: 0.98-1.70). CONCLUSIONS: Although rates of myocardial infarction and stroke were not substantially different, adults with coeliac disease do have a lower prevalence of hypertension and hypercholesterolaemia compared with the general population. The effect of a gluten-free diet on cardiovascular risk factors should be determined before any screening programmes for coeliac disease are instituted.