Influence of Seasonality and Public-Health Interventions on the COVID-19 Pandemic in Northern Europe.

BACKGROUND: Most government efforts to control the COVID-19 pandemic revolved around non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination. However, many respiratory diseases show distinctive seasonal trends. In this manuscript, we examined the contribution of these three factors to the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Pearson correlation coefficients and time-lagged analysis were used to examine the relationship between NPIs, vaccinations and seasonality (using the average incidence of endemic human beta-coronaviruses in Sweden over a 10-year period as a proxy) and the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic as tracked by deaths; cases; hospitalisations; intensive care unit occupancy and testing positivity rates in six Northern European countries (population 99.12 million) using a population-based, observational, ecological study method. FINDINGS: The waves of the pandemic correlated well with the seasonality of human beta-coronaviruses (HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1). In contrast, we could not find clear or consistent evidence that the stringency of NPIs or vaccination reduced the progression of the pandemic. However, these results are correlations and not causations. IMPLICATIONS: We hypothesise that the apparent influence of NPIs and vaccines might instead be an effect of coronavirus seasonality. We suggest that policymakers consider these results when assessing policy options for future pandemics. LIMITATIONS: The study is limited to six temperate Northern European countries with spatial and temporal variations in metrics used to track the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic. Caution should be exercised when extrapolating these findings.

Unintended Consequences of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) for Population Health and Health Inequalities.

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, governments around the world have adopted an array of measures intended to control the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, using both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). NPIs are public health interventions that do not rely on vaccines or medicines and include policies such as lockdowns, stay-at-home orders, school closures, and travel restrictions. Although the intention was to slow viral transmission, emerging research indicates that these NPIs have also had unintended consequences for other aspects of public health. Hence, we conducted a narrative review of studies investigating these unintended consequences of NPIs, with a particular emphasis on mental health and on lifestyle risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCD): physical activity (PA), overweight and obesity, alcohol consumption, and tobacco smoking. We reviewed the scientific literature using combinations of search terms such as 'COVID-19', 'pandemic', 'lockdowns', 'mental health', 'physical activity', and 'obesity'. NPIs were found to have considerable adverse consequences for mental health, physical activity, and overweight and obesity. The impacts on alcohol and tobacco consumption varied greatly within and between studies. The variability in consequences for different groups implies increased health inequalities by age, sex/gender, socioeconomic status, pre-existing lifestyle, and place of residence. In conclusion, a proper assessment of the use of NPIs in attempts to control the spread of the pandemic should be weighed against the potential adverse impacts on other aspects of public health. Our findings should also be of relevance for future pandemic preparedness and pandemic response teams.

Size and persistence length of molecular bottle-brushes by Monte Carlo simulations.

Single-chain simulations of densely branched comb polymers, or "molecular bottle-brushes" with side-chains attached to every (or every second) backbone monomer, were carried out by off-lattice Monte Carlo technique. A coarse-grained model, described by hard spheres connected by harmonic springs, was employed. Backbone lengths of up to 100 units were considered, and compared with the corresponding linear chains. The backbone molecular size was investigated as a function of its length at fixed arm size, and as a function of the arm size at fixed backbone length. The apparent swelling exponents obtained by a power-law fit were found to be larger than those for the corresponding linear polymers, indicative of stiffening of the comb backbone. The probability distribution function for the backbone end-to-end distance was also investigated for different backbone lengths and arm sizes. Analysis of this function yielded the critical exponents, which revealed an increase in the swelling exponent consistent with values found from the molecular size. The apparent persistence length of the backbone was also determined, and was found to increase with increasing branching density. Finally, the static structure factors of the whole bottle-brushes and of their backbones are discussed, which provides another consistent estimate of the swelling exponents.