What does good care look like to people living with congenital heart disease in the 21st century? Qualitative online, asynchronous discussion forums.

OBJECTIVES: As part of a wider study, our aim was to elicit perspectives of people with congenital heart disease (CHD) and/or their parents/carers about their experiences of healthcare and what is important to them when receiving care. DESIGN AND SETTING: A qualitative study involving a series of closed, asynchronous, online discussion forums underpinned by an interpretivist framework and set up and moderated by three patient charities via their Facebook pages. PARTICIPANTS: People with CHD and parents/carers of people with CHD from the UK. RESULTS: Five forums were run for 12-24 weeks across the three charities, and 343 participants signed up to the forums. Four linked themes related to processes of care were identified following thematic analysis of the transcripts: relationships and communication; access and coordination; experience of discrete episodes of care and psychological support. These impacted how care was experienced and, for some patients, outcomes of CHD and its treatment as well as broader health outcomes. In addition, context relating to stages of the patient journey was described, together with patient-related factors such as patients' knowledge and expertise in their own condition. CONCLUSIONS: People with CHD and their parents/carers want individualised, person-centred care delivered within an appropriately resourced, multidisciplinary service. Although examples of excellent care were provided it is evident that, from the perspective of patients and parents/carers, some National Health Service Standards for people with CHD were not being met.

Retrospective Cohort Study of Additional Procedures and Transplant-Free Survival for Patients With Functionally Single Ventricle Disease Undergoing Staged Palliation in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Reinterventions may influence the outcomes of children with functionally single-ventricle (f-SV) congenital heart disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: We undertook a retrospective cohort study of children starting treatment for f-SV between 2000 and 2018 in England, using the national procedure registry. Patients were categorized based on whether they survived free of transplant beyond 1 year of age. Among patients who had transplant-free survival beyond 1 year of age, we explored the relationship between reinterventions in infancy and the outcomes of survival and Fontan completion, adjusting for complexity. Of 3307 patients with f-SV, 909 (27.5%), had no follow-up beyond 1 year of age, among whom 323 (35.3%) had ≥1 reinterventions in infancy. A total of 2398 (72.5%) patients with f-SV had transplant-free survival beyond 1 year of age, among whom 756 (31.5%) had ≥1 reinterventions in infancy. The 5-year transplant-free survival and cumulative incidence of Fontan, among those who survived infancy, were 93.4% (95% CI, 92.4%-94.4%) and 79.3% (95% CI, 77.4%-81.2%), respectively. Both survival and Fontan completion were similar for those with a single reintervention and those who had no reinterventions. Patients who had >1 additional surgery (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.93 [95% CI, 1.87-8.27] P<0.001) had higher adjusted risk of mortality. Patients who had >1 additional interventional catheter (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.52-0.96] P=0.03) had a lower likelihood of achieving Fontan. CONCLUSIONS: Among children with f-SV, the occurrence of >1 reintervention in the first year of life, especially surgical reinterventions, was associated with poorer prognosis later in childhood.

Secundum atrial septal defect closure in adults in the UK.

AIMS: To examine determinants of access to treatment, outcomes and hospital utilization in patients undergoing secundum atrial septal defect (ASD) closure in adulthood in England and Wales. METHODS AND RESULTS: Large retrospective cohort study of all adult patients undergoing secundum ASD closures in England and Wales between 2000/01 and 2016/17. Data were from population-based official data sets covering congenital heart disease procedures, hospital episodes and death registries.Out of 6 541 index closures, 79.4% were transcatheter (median age 47 years, IQR 34-61) and 20.6% were surgical (40 years, 28-52). The study cohort was predominantly female (66%), with socio-ethnic profile similar to the general population.Mortality in hospital was 0.2% and at one year 1.0% (95%CI 0.8%-1.2%). Risk of death was lower for transcatheter repairs, adjusting for age, sex, year of procedure, comorbidities and cardiac risk factors (in-hospital adjusted-OR 0.09, 95%CI 0.02-0.46, one-year adjusted-HR 0.5, 0.3-0.9). There was excess mortality one year after ASD closure compared to matched population data.Median (IQR) peri-procedural length of stay was 1.8 (1.4-2.5) and 7.3 (6.2-9.2) days for transcatheter and surgical closures, respectively. Hospital resource use for cardiac reasons started the year before repair (median 2 inpatient and 2 outpatient-only days) and decreased post-repair (zero inpatient and one outpatient days during the first two years). CONCLUSION: This national study confirms that ASD closure in adults, by surgical or transcatheter methods, is provided independently of ethnic or socioeconomic differences, it is low (but not no) risk and appears to reduce future cardiac hospitalisation even in older ages.

Hospital resource utilization in a national cohort of functionally single ventricle patients undergoing surgical treatment.

Objective: The study objective was to provide a detailed overview of health resource use from birth to 18 years old for patients with functionally single ventricles and identify associated risk factors. Methods: All patients with functionally single ventricles treated between 2000 and 2017 in England and Wales were linked to hospital and outpatient records using data from the Linking AUdit and National datasets in Congenital HEart Services project. Hospital stay was described in yearly age intervals, and associated risk factors were explored using quantile regression. Results: A total of 3037 patients with functionally single ventricles were included, 1409 (46.3%) undergoing a Fontan procedure. During the first year of life, the median days spent in hospital was 60 (interquartile range, 37-102), mostly inpatient days, mirroring a mortality of 22.8%. This decreases to between 2 and 9 in-hospital days/year afterward. Between 2 and 18 years, most hospital days were outpatient, with a median of 1 to 5 days/year. Lower age at the first procedure, hypoplastic left heart syndrome/mitral atresia, unbalanced atrioventricular septal defect, preterm birth, congenital/acquired comorbidities, additional cardiac risk factors, and severity of illness markers were associated with fewer days at home and more intensive care unit days in the first year of life. Only markers of early severe illness were associated with fewer days at home in the first 6 months after the Fontan procedure. Conclusions: Hospital resource use in functionally single ventricle cases is not uniform, decreasing 10-fold during adolescence compared with the first year of life. There are subsets of patients with worse outcomes during their first year of life or with persistently high hospital use throughout their childhood, which could be the target of future research.

Long-term survival and center volume for functionally single-ventricle congenital heart disease in England and Wales.

OBJECTIVES: Long-term survival is an important metric for health care evaluation, especially in functionally single-ventricle (f-SV) congenital heart disease (CHD). This study's aim was to evaluate the relationship between center volume and long-term survival in f-SV CHD within the centralized health care service of England and Wales. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of children born with f-SV CHD between 2000 and 2018, using the national CHD procedure registry, with survival ascertained in 2020. RESULTS: Of 56,039 patients, 3293 (5.9%) had f-SV CHD. Median age at first intervention was 7 days (interquartile range [IQR], 4, 27), and median follow-up time was 7.6 years (IQR, 1.0, 13.3). The largest diagnostic subcategories were hypoplastic left heart syndrome, 1276 (38.8%); tricuspid atresia, 440 (13.4%); and double-inlet left ventricle, 322 (9.8%). The survival rate at 1 year and 5 years was 76.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 75.3%-78.2%) and 72.1% (95% CI, 70.6%-73.7%), respectively. The unadjusted hazard ratio for each 5 additional patients with f-SV starting treatment per center per year was 1.04 (95% CI, 1.02-1.06), P < .001. However, after adjustment for significant risk factors (diagnostic subcategory; antenatal diagnosis; younger age, low weight, acquired comorbidity, increased severity of illness at first procedure), the hazard ratio for f-SV center volume was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.99-1.04) P = .28. There was strong evidence that patients with more complex f-SV (hypoplastic left heart syndrome, Norwood pathway) were treated at centers with greater f-SV case volume (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: After adjustment for case mix, there was no evidence that f-SV center volume was linked to longer-term survival in the centralized health service provided by the 10 children's cardiac centers in England and Wales.

Arterial Switch for Transposition of the Great Arteries: Treatment Timing, Late Outcomes, and Risk Factors.

Background: Reports of long-term mortality and reintervention after transposition of the great arteries with intact ventricular septum treatment, although favorable, are mostly limited to single-center studies. Even less is known about hospital resource utilization (days at hospital) and the impact of treatment choices and timing on outcomes. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to describe survival, reintervention and hospital resource utilization after arterial switch operation (ASO) in a national dataset. Methods: Follow-up and life status data for all patients undergoing ASO between 2000 and 2017 in England and Wales were collected and explored using multivariable regressions and matching. Results: A total of 1,772 patients were identified, with median ASO age of 9.5 days (IQR: 6.5-14.5 days). Mortality and cardiac reintervention at 10 years after ASO were 3.2% (95% CI: 2.5%-4.2%) and 10.7% (95% CI: 9.1%-12.2%), respectively. The median time spent in hospital during the ASO spell was 19 days (IQR: 14, 24). Over the first year after the ASO patients spent 7 days (IQR: 4-10 days) in hospital in total, decreasing to 1 outpatient day/year beyond the fifth year. In a subgroup with complete risk factor data (n = 652), ASO age, and balloon atrial septostomy (BAS) use were not associated with late mortality and reintervention, but cardiac or congenital comorbidities, low weight, and circulatory/renal support at ASO were. After matching for patient characteristics, BAS followed by ASO and ASO as first procedure, performed within the first 3 weeks of life, had comparable early and late outcomes, including hospital resource utilization. Conclusions: Mortality and hospital resource utilization are low, while reintervention remains relatively frequent. Early ASO and individualized use of BAS allows for flexibility in treatment choices and a focus on at-risk patients.

Machine learning for real-time aggregated prediction of hospital admission for emergency patients.

Machine learning for hospital operations is under-studied. We present a prediction pipeline that uses live electronic health-records for patients in a UK teaching hospital's emergency department (ED) to generate short-term, probabilistic forecasts of emergency admissions. A set of XGBoost classifiers applied to 109,465 ED visits yielded AUROCs from 0.82 to 0.90 depending on elapsed visit-time at the point of prediction. Patient-level probabilities of admission were aggregated to forecast the number of admissions among current ED patients and, incorporating patients yet to arrive, total emergency admissions within specified time-windows. The pipeline gave a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.0 admissions (mean percentage error of 17%) versus 6.5 (32%) for a benchmark metric. Models developed with 104,504 later visits during the Covid-19 pandemic gave AUROCs of 0.68-0.90 and MAE of 4.2 (30%) versus a 4.9 (33%) benchmark. We discuss how we surmounted challenges of designing and implementing models for real-time use, including temporal framing, data preparation, and changing operational conditions.

Transfer of congenital heart patients from paediatric to adult services in England.

OBJECTIVE: This study assessed the transfer of patients from paediatric cardiac to adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) services in England and the factors impacting on this process. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used a population-based linked data set (LAUNCHES QI data set: 'Linking Audit and National datasets in Congenital Heart Services for Quality Improvement') including all patients born between 1987 and 2000, recorded as having a congenital heart disease (CHD) procedure in childhood. Hospital Episode Statistics data identified transfer from paediatric to ACHD services between the ages of 16 and 22 years. RESULTS: Overall, 63.8% of a cohort of 10 298 patients transferred by their 22nd birthday. The estimated probability of transfer by age 22 was 96.5% (95% CI 95.3 to 97.7), 86.7% (95% CI 85.6 to 87.9) and 41.0% (95% CI 39.4 to 42.6) for severe, moderate and mild CHD, respectively. 166 patients (1.6%) died between 16 and 22 years; 42 of these (0.4%) died after age 16 but prior to transfer. Multivariable ORs in the moderate and severe CHD groups up to age 20 showed significantly lower likelihood of transfer among female patients (0.87, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.97), those with missing ethnicity data (0.31, 95% CI 0.18 to 0.52), those from deprived areas (0.84, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.98) and those with moderate (compared with severe) CHD (0.30, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.35). The odds of transfer were lower for the horizontal compared with the vertical care model (0.44, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.72). Patients who did not transfer had a lower probability of a further National Congenital Heart Disease Audit procedure between ages 20 and 30 compared with those who did transfer: 12.3% (95% CI 5.1 to 19.6) vs 32.5% (95% CI 28.7 to 36.3). CONCLUSIONS: Majority of patients with moderate or severe CHD in England transfer to adult services. Patients who do not transfer undergo fewer elective CHD procedures over the following decade.

Linkage of National Congenital Heart Disease Audit data to hospital, critical care and mortality national data sets to enable research focused on quality improvement.

OBJECTIVES: To link five national data sets (three registries, two administrative) and create longitudinal healthcare trajectories for patients with congenital heart disease (CHD), describing the quality and the summary statistics of the linked data set. DESIGN: Bespoke linkage of record-level patient identifiers across five national data sets. Generation of spells of care defined as periods of time-overlapping events across the data sets. SETTING: National Congenital Heart Disease Audit (NCHDA) procedures in public (National Health Service; NHS) hospitals in England and Wales, paediatric and adult intensive care data sets (Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network; PICANet and the Case Mix Programme from the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre; ICNARC-CMP), administrative hospital episodes (hospital episode statistics; HES inpatient, outpatient, accident and emergency; A&E) and mortality registry data. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with any CHD procedure recorded in NCHDA between April 2000 and March 2017 from public hospitals. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary: number of linked records, number of unique patients and number of generated spells of care. Secondary: quality and completeness of linkage. RESULTS: There were 143 862 records in NCHDA relating to 96 041 unique patients. We identified 65 797 linked PICANet patient admissions, 4664 linked ICNARC-CMP admissions and over 6 million linked HES episodes of care (1.1M inpatient, 4.7M outpatient). The linked data set had 4 908 153 spells of care after quality checks, with a median (IQR) of 3.4 (1.8-6.3) spells per patient-year. Where linkage was feasible (in terms of year and centre), 95.6% surgical procedure records were linked to a corresponding HES record, 93.9% paediatric (cardiac) surgery procedure records to a corresponding PICANet admission and 76.8% adult surgery procedure records to a corresponding ICNARC-CMP record. CONCLUSIONS: We successfully linked four national data sets to the core data set of all CHD procedures performed between 2000 and 2017. This will enable a much richer analysis of longitudinal patient journeys and outcomes. We hope that our detailed description of the linkage process will be useful to others looking to link national data sets to address important research priorities.

"What's the evidence?"-Towards more empirical evaluations of the impact of OR interventions in healthcare.

Despite an increasing number of papers reporting applications of operational research (OR) to problems in healthcare, there remains little empirical evidence of OR improving healthcare delivery in practice. Without such evidence it is harder both to justify the usefulness of OR to a healthcare audience and to learn and continuously improve our approaches. To progress, we need to build the evidence-base on whether and how OR improves healthcare delivery through careful empirical evaluation. This position paper reviews evaluation standards in healthcare improvement research and dispels some common myths about evaluation. It highlights the current lack of robust evaluation of healthcare OR and makes the case for addressing this. It then proposes possible ways for building better empirical evaluations of OR interventions in healthcare.

Cohort study of intervened functionally univentricular heart in England and Wales (2000-2018).

OBJECTIVE: Given the paucity of long-term outcome data for complex congenital heart disease (CHD), we aimed to describe the treatment pathways and survival for patients who started interventions for functionally univentricular heart (FUH) conditions, excluding hypoplastic left heart syndrome. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using all procedure records from the National Congenital Heart Diseases Audit for children born in 2000-2018. The primary outcome was mortality, ascertained from the Office for National Statistics in 2020. RESULTS: Of 53 615 patients, 1557 had FUH: 55.9% were boys and 67.4% were of White ethnic groups. The largest diagnostic categories were tricuspid atresia (28.9%), double inlet left ventricle (21.0%) and unbalanced atrioventricular septal defect (AVSD) (15.2%). The ages at staged surgery were: initial palliation 11.5 (IQR 5.5-43.5) days, cavopulmonary shunt 9.2 (IQR 6.0-17.1) months and Fontan 56.2 (IQR 45.5-70.3) months. The median follow-up time was 10.8 (IQR 7.0-14.9) years and the 1, 5 and 10-year survival rates after initial palliation were 83.6% (95% CI 81.7% to 85.4%), 79.4% (95% CI 77.3% to 81.4%) and 77.2% (95% CI 75.0% to 79.2%), respectively. Higher hazards were present for unbalanced AVSD HR 2.75 (95% CI 1.82 to 4.17), atrial isomerism HR 1.75 (95% CI 1.14 to 2.70) and low weight HR 1.65 (95% CI 1.13 to 2.41), critical illness HR 2.30 (95% CI 1.67 to 3.18) or acquired comorbidities HR 2.71 (95% CI 1.82 to 4.04) at initial palliation. CONCLUSION: Although treatment pathways for FUH are complex and variable, nearly 8 out of 10 children survived to 10 years. Longer-term analyses of outcome based on diagnosis (rather than procedure) can inform parents, patients and clinicians, driving practice improvements for complex CHD.

What was the impact of the first wave of COVID-19 on the delivery of care to children and adults with congenital heart disease? A qualitative study using online forums.

OBJECTIVES: Globally, healthcare systems have been stretched to the limit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Significant changes have had to be made to the way in which non-COVID-19-related care has been delivered. Our objective was to understand, from the perspective of patients with a chronic, life-long condition (congenital heart disease, CHD) and their parents/carers, the impact of COVID-19 on the delivery of care, how changes were communicated and whether healthcare providers should do anything differently in a subsequent wave of COVID-19 infections. DESIGN AND SETTING: Qualitative study involving a series of asynchronous discussion forums set up and moderated by three patient charities via their Facebook pages. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with CHD and parents/carers of patients with CHD. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Qualitative responses to questions posted on the discussion forums. RESULTS: The forums ran over a 6-week period and involved 109 participants. Following thematic analysis, we identified three themes and 10 subthemes related to individual condition-related factors, patient-related factors and health professional/centre factors that may have influenced how patients and parents/carers experienced changes to service delivery as a result of COVID-19. Specifically, respondents reported high levels of disruption to the delivery of care, inconsistent advice and messaging and variable communication from health professionals, with examples of both excellent and very poor experiences of care reported. Uncertainty about follow-up and factors related to the complexity and stability of their condition contributed to anxiety and stress. CONCLUSIONS: The importance of clear, consistent communication cannot be over-estimated. Our findings, while collected in relation to patients with CHD, are not necessarily specific to this population and we believe that they reflect the experiences of many thousands of people with life-long conditions in the UK. Recommendations related to communication, service delivery and support during the pandemic may improve patients' experience of care and, potentially, their outcomes.

The road to hell is paved with good intentions: the experience of applying for national data for linkage and suggestions for improvement.

BACKGROUND: We can improve healthcare services by better understanding current provision. One way to understand this is by linking data sets from clinical and national audits, national registries and other National Health Service (NHS) encounter data. However, getting to the point of having linked national data sets is challenging. OBJECTIVE: We describe our experience of the data application and linkage process for our study 'LAUNCHES QI', and the time, processes and resource requirements involved. To help others planning similar projects, we highlight challenges encountered and advice for applications in the current system as well as suggestions for system improvements. FINDINGS: The study set up for LAUNCHES QI began in March 2018, and the process through to data acquisition took 2.5 years. Several challenges were encountered, including the amount of information required (often duplicate information in different formats across applications), lack of clarity on processes, resource constraints that limit an audit's capacity to fulfil requests and the unexpected amount of time required from the study team. It is incredibly difficult to estimate the resources needed ahead of time, and yet necessary to do so as early on as funding applications. Early decisions can have a significant impact during latter stages and be hard to change, yet it is difficult to get specific information at the beginning of the process. CONCLUSIONS: The current system is incredibly complex, arduous and slow, stifling innovation and delaying scientific progress. NHS data can inform and improve health services and we believe there is an ethical responsibility to use it to do so. Streamlining the number of applications required for accessing data for health services research and providing clarity to data controllers could facilitate the maintenance of stringent governance, while accelerating scientific studies and progress, leading to swifter application of findings and improvements in healthcare.

Ethnic-specific mortality of infants undergoing congenital heart surgery in England and Wales.

PURPOSE: To investigate ethnic differences in mortality for infants with congenital heart defects (CHDs) undergoing cardiac surgery or interventional catheterisation. DESIGN: Observational study of survival to age 1 year using linked records from routine national paediatric cardiac surgery and intensive care audits. Mortality risk was investigated using multivariable Poisson models with multiple imputation. Predictors included sex, ethnicity, preterm birth, deprivation, comorbidities, prenatal diagnosis, age and weight at surgery, preprocedure deterioration and cardiac diagnosis. SETTING: All paediatric cardiac surgery centres in England and Wales. PATIENTS: 5350 infants with CHDs born from 2006 to 2009. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Survival at age 1 year. RESULTS: Mortality was 83.9 (95% CI 76.3 to 92.1) per 1000 infants, with variation by ethnic group. Compared with those of white ethnicity, infants in British Asian (Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi) and 'all other' (Chinese, mixed and other) categories experienced significantly higher mortality by age 1 year (relative risk [RR] 1.52[95% CI 1.19 to 1.95]; 1.62[95% CI 1.20 to 2.20], respectively), specifically during index hospital admission (RR 1.55 [95% CI 1.07 to 2.26]; 1.64 [95% CI 1.05 to 2.57], respectively). Further predictors of mortality included non-cardiac comorbidities, prenatal diagnosis, older age at surgery, preprocedure deterioration and cardiac diagnosis. British Asian infants had higher mortality risk during elective hospital readmission (RR 1.86 [95% CI 1.02 to 3.39]). CONCLUSIONS: Infants of British Asian and 'all other' non-white ethnicity experienced higher postoperative mortality risk, which was only partly explained by socioeconomic deprivation and access to care. Further investigation of case-mix and timing of risk may provide important insights into potential mechanisms underlying ethnic disparities.

Mixed-methods evaluation of the Perioperative Medicine Service for High-Risk Patients Implementation Pilot (POMSHIP): a study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Perioperative complications have a lasting effect on health-related quality of life and long-term survival. The Royal College of Anaesthetists has proposed the development of perioperative medicine (POM) services as an intervention aimed at improving postoperative outcome, by providing better coordinated care for high-risk patients. The Perioperative Medicine Service for High-risk Patients Implementation Pilot was developed to determine if a specialist POM service is able to reduce postoperative morbidity, failure to rescue, mortality and cost associated with hospital admission. The service involves individualised objective risk assessment, admission to a postoperative critical care unit and follow-up on the surgical ward by the POM team. This paper introduces the service and how it will be evaluated. METHODS AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVALUATION: A mixed-methods evaluation is exploring the impact of the service. Clinical effectiveness of the service is being analysed using a 'before and after' comparison of the primary outcome (the PostOperative Morbidity Score). Secondary outcomes will include length of stay, validated surveys to explore quality of life (EQ-5D) and quality of recovery (Quality of Recovery-15 Score). The impact on costs is being analysed using 'before and after' data from the Patient-Level Information and Costing System and the National Schedule of Reference Costs. The perceptions and experiences of staff and patients with the service, and how it is being implemented, are being explored by a qualitative process evaluation. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was classified as a service evaluation. Participant information sheets and consent forms have been developed for the interviews and approvals required for the use of the validated surveys were obtained. The findings of the evaluation are being used formatively, to make changes in the service throughout implementation. The findings will also be used to inform the potential roll-out of the service to other sites.

A method for evaluating and comparing immunisation schedules that cover multiple diseases: Illustrative application to the UK routine childhood vaccine schedule.

BACKGROUND: In the UK, the childhood immunisation programme is given in the first 5 years of life and protects against 12 vaccine-preventable diseases. Recently, this programme has undergone changes with addition of vaccination against Meningitis B from September 2015 and the removal of the primary dose of protection against Meningitis C from July 2016. These hanges have direct impact on the associated diseases but in addition may induce indirect effects on the vaccines that are given simultaneously or later in the programme. In this work, we developed a novel formal method to evaluate the impact of vaccination changes to one aspect of the programme across an entire vaccine programme. METHODS: Firstly, we combined transmission modelling (for four diseases) and historic data synthesis (for eight diseases) to project, for each disease, the disease burden at different levels of effective coverage against the associated disease. Secondly, we used a simulation model to determine the vector of effective coverage against each disease under three variations of the current childhood schedule. Combining these, we calculated the vector of disease burden across the programme under different scenarios, and assessed the direct and indirect effects of the schedule changes. RESULTS: Through illustrative application of our novel framework to three scenarios of the current childhood immunisation programme in the UK, we demonstrated the feasibility of this unifying approach. For each disease in the programme, we successfully quantified the residual disease burden due to the change. For some diseases, the change was indirectly beneficial and reduced the burden, whereas for others the effect was adverse and the change increased the disease burden. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate the potential benefit of considering the programme-wide impact of changes to an immunisation schedule, and our framework is an important step in the development of a means for systematically doing so.

Parents' Experiences of Caring for Their Child at the Time of Discharge After Cardiac Surgery and During the Postdischarge Period: Qualitative Study Using an Online Forum.

BACKGROUND: Congenital heart disease (CHD) is the most common class of birth defects, which encompasses a broad spectrum of severity ranging from relatively minor to extremely complex. Improvements in surgery and intensive care have resulted in an increasing number of infants with the most complex lesions surviving after surgery until the time of discharge from the hospital, but there remain concerns about out-of-hospital mortality, variability in how services are provided at the time of discharge and beyond, and difficulties experienced by some families in accessing care. OBJECTIVE: As part of a mixed-methods program of research, this study aimed to elicit parental experiences of caring for a child with CHD after hospital discharge following a cardiac surgery and collect information to inform interviews for a subsequent stage of the project. METHODS: A closed online discussion group was set up via the main Facebook page of the Children's Heart Federation (CHF), a national charity offering support to children with heart disease and their families. The discussion group was advertised through the charity's webpage, and interested participants were directed to the charity's Facebook page from where they could access the closed Facebook group and respond to questions posted. The CHF moderated the forum, and the research team provided questions to be posted on the forum. Responses were collated into a single transcript and subjected to thematic analysis. RESULTS: The forum was open for 4 months, and 91 participants (mean age 35 years, range 23-58 years, 89 females, 89 parents, and 2 grandparents) submitted demographic information and were given access to the closed forum group. A common experience of isolation emerged from the data, with descriptions of how that isolation was experienced (physical, social, knowledge) and its psychological impact, together with the factors that made it worse or better. Woven through this theme was the notion that parents developed expertise over time. CONCLUSIONS: The use of an online forum provided a means for eliciting data from a large number of parents regarding their experiences of caring for their child after hospital discharge following cardiac surgery. Parents engaged with the forum and were able to articulate what went well and what went less well, together with sharing their stories and supporting each other through doing so. Some parents clearly found participating in the forum a positive experience in itself, demonstrating the potential of social media as a mechanism for providing support and reducing isolation. Information gained from the forum was used to shape questions for interviews with parents in a subsequent phase of the study. Furthermore, the themes identified in the online forum have contributed to identifying ways of improving the provision of care and support for parents of high-risk babies following discharge after cardiac surgery.

One to one specialling and sitters in acute care hospitals: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: One to one specialling is a type of care which is provided to ensure the safety of patients who may be suffering from cognitive impairment, exhibit challenging behaviour, or may be at risk of falls or of causing harm to themselves or others. Care such as this, often referred to as 'specialling' or 'sitting' is common practice in most hospitals around the world, but there is a lack of evidence regarding its cost effectiveness and the quality of care provided. AIM: The aim of this scoping review was to explore the breadth and scope of literature on one to one specialling, sitters and similar types of care in acute secondary care settings, in order to identify the challenges and concerns relating to the quality of care (process and outcomes) and cost effectiveness emerging from the literature, and determine the implications of this for policy, practice and future research. DESIGN: This review was based on scoping review methodology following a five stage scoping review process. A keyword search was conducted in the following databases: MEDLINE, Scopus, CINAHL Plus, Web of Science, ProQuest Social Science, and ProQuest Nursing and Allied Health. The time limit placed on the search was January 2000 to April 2016. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied. The Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool was used to assess the quality of primary research articles. FINDINGS: Forty-four articles were included in the review. We found a lack of clarity in the terms used to describe one to one specialling and variability in what this type of care entails, who provides the care and the needs of patients requiring this type of care. High costs of specialling are often seen as a concern, but there was a lack of economic evaluations considering the full cost of specialling and balancing these against the benefits. Some of the articles proposed alternatives to one to one specialling or the use of sitters, but only some of these were evaluated. CONCLUSION: There is wide variation in what specialling and one to one care entails, which can in turn lead to the provision of poor quality care. A reduction in this variation and improved quality care might be achieved through the development of guidelines, training and standardized decision-making tools. Further research on the impact of one to one specialling on patient outcomes and cost would be beneficial, as well as robust evaluations of the alternatives to specialling.