Recent trends in the incidence of testicular germ cell tumors in the United States.

Testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT), which comprise 98% of all testicular malignancies, are the most commonly occurring cancers among men between the ages of 15 and 44 years in the United States (US). A prior report from our group found that while TGCT incidence among all US men increased between 1973 and 2003, the rate of increase among black men was more pronounced starting in 1989-1993 than was the rate of increase among other men. In addition, TGCT incidence increased among Hispanic white men between 1992 and 2003. To determine whether these patterns have continued, in the current study, we examined temporal trends in incidence through 2011. Between 1992 and 2011, 21 271 TGCTs (12 419 seminomas; 8715 non-seminomas; 137 spermatocytic seminomas) were diagnosed among residents of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 13 registry areas. The incidence of TGCT was highest among non-Hispanic white men (6.97 per 100 000 man-years) followed by American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN; 4.66), Hispanic white (4.11), Asian/Pacific Islander (A/PI; 1.95), and black (1.20) men. Non-Hispanic white men were more likely to present with smaller tumors (3.5 cm) and localized disease (72.6%) than were men of other races/ethnicities. Between 1992 and 2011, TGCT incidence increased significantly among Hispanic white [annual percent change (APC) = 2.94, p < 0.0001], black (APC = 1.67, p = 0.03), non-Hispanic white (APC = 1.23, p < 0.0001), and A/PI (APC = 1.04, p = 0.05) men. Incidence rates also increased, although not significantly, among AI/AN men (APC = 2.96, p = 0.06). The increases were greater for non-seminoma than seminoma. In summary, while non-Hispanic white men in the US continue to have the highest incidence of TGCT, they present at more favorable stages of disease and with smaller tumors than do other men. The increasing rates among non-white men, in conjunction with the larger proportion of non-localized stage disease, suggest an area where future research is warranted.

International patterns and trends in testicular cancer incidence, overall and by histologic subtype, 1973-2007.

Incidence rates of testicular cancer in Northern European and North American countries have been widely reported, whereas rates in other populations, such as Eastern Europe, Central/South America, Asia, and Africa, have been less frequently evaluated. We examined testicular cancer incidence rates overall and by histologic type by calendar time and birth cohort for selected global populations 1973-2007. Age-standardized incidence rates over succeeding 5-year periods were calculated from volumes 4-9 of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents electronic database (CI5plus) and the newly released CI5X (volume 10) database. Annual percent change over the 35-year period was calculated using weighted least squares regression. Age-period-cohort analyses were performed and observed rates and fitted rate ratios presented by birth cohort. Incidence rates of testicular cancer increased between 1973-1977 and 2003-2007 in most populations evaluated worldwide. Of note, incidence rates in Eastern European countries rose rapidly and approached rates in Northern European countries. Rates in Central and South America also increased and are now intermediate to the high rates among men of European ancestry and low rates among men of Asian or African descent. Some heterogeneity in the trends in seminoma and nonseminoma were observed in Denmark, the United Kingdom, and among US whites, particularly in recent generations, with rapid and uniform increases in the incidence of both histologic types in Slovakia. Reasons for the rising incidence rates among European and American populations remain unexplained; however, changing distributions in the prevalence of risk factors for testicular cancer cannot be ruled out.

Mobile phone use and glioma risk: comparison of epidemiological study results with incidence trends in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: In view of mobile phone exposure being classified as a possible human carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), we determined the compatibility of two recent reports of glioma risk (forming the basis of the IARC's classification) with observed incidence trends in the United States. DESIGN: Comparison of observed rates with projected rates of glioma incidence for 1997-2008. We estimated projected rates by combining relative risks reported in the 2010 Interphone study and a 2011 Swedish study by Hardell and colleagues with rates adjusted for age, registry, and sex; data for mobile phone use; and various latency periods. SETTING: US population based data for glioma incidence in 1992-2008, from 12 registries in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) programme (Atlanta, Detroit, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose-Monterey, Seattle, rural Georgia, Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, New Mexico, and Utah). PARTICIPANTS: Data for 24,813 non-Hispanic white people diagnosed with glioma at age 18 years or older. RESULTS: Age specific incidence rates of glioma remained generally constant in 1992-2008 (-0.02% change per year, 95% confidence interval -0.28% to 0.25%), a period coinciding with a substantial increase in mobile phone use from close to 0% to almost 100% of the US population. If phone use was associated with glioma risk, we expected glioma incidence rates to be higher than those observed, even with a latency period of 10 years and low relative risks (1.5). Based on relative risks of glioma by tumour latency and cumulative hours of phone use in the Swedish study, predicted rates should have been at least 40% higher than observed rates in 2008. However, predicted glioma rates based on the small proportion of highly exposed people in the Interphone study could be consistent with the observed data. Results remained valid if we used either non-regular users or low users of mobile phones as the baseline category, and if we constrained relative risks to be more than 1. CONCLUSIONS: Raised risks of glioma with mobile phone use, as reported by one (Swedish) study forming the basis of the IARC's re-evaluation of mobile phone exposure, are not consistent with observed incidence trends in US population data, although the US data could be consistent with the modest excess risks in the Interphone study.

Oesophageal cancer incidence in the United States by race, sex, and histologic type, 1977-2005.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, the rates and temporal trends of oesophageal cancer overall and for the two predominant histologic types - adenocarcinoma (ADC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) - differ between Blacks and Whites, but little is known with regard to the patterns among Asians/Pacific Islanders or Hispanics. METHODS: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results programme data, we analysed oesophageal cancer incidence patterns by race, sex, and histologic type for the period 1977-2005. RESULTS: Total oesophageal cancer incidence has been increasing among Whites only; the rates among all other race groups have declined. Moreover, rates among White men surpassed those among Blacks in 2004. Oesophageal SCC rates have been decreasing among virtually all racial/ethnic groups; rates among Hispanic and Asian/Pacific Islander men have been intermediate to those of Blacks and Whites, with rates among women being lower than those among Blacks or Whites. The ADC rates among Hispanic men may be rising, akin to the historical trends among Whites and Blacks. The sex ratios for these cancers also varied markedly. CONCLUSIONS: These observations may provide clues for aetiological research.

Global increases in kidney cancer incidence, 1973-1992.

Reports of increasing rates for kidney cancers in several count prompted this analysis of global incidence trends for total kidney cancers and by subsite. International incidence data for 5-year periods 1973-1977, 1978-1982, 1983-1987 and 1988-1992 were obtained from volumes IV to VII of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents published by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The USA data for the same 5-year periods were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program of the National Cancer Institute. Percentage changes in incidence rates were computed using the relative difference between the time periods 1973-1977 and 1988-1992, and annual percentage changes in incidence rates were computed using log linear regression. In 1988-1992, kidney cancer incidence rates (age-adjusted to the world-standard population) were highest in France (16.1/100,000 man-years and 7.3/100,000 woman-years) and lowest in India (2.0 and 0.9, respectively). Between 1973-1977 and 1988-1992, incidence rates rose among men and women in all regions and ethnic groups, with a few exceptions, mostly in Scandinavian countries. The largest percentage increase for men was in Japan (171%) and for women in Italy (107%). Rates for renal pelvis cancer were less than 1/100,000 person-years in almost all regions in both sexes, and the temporal trends were inconsistent. Incidence trends for renal parenchyma cancer tracked those for total kidney cancers, and appeared to result from increases in the prevalence of risk factors and in use of diagnostic imaging procedures.

International trends and patterns of primary liver cancer.

Primary liver cancer (PLC) is common in many areas of the developing world, but uncommon in most of the developed world. Some evidence suggests, however, that the global pattern of PLC may be changing. To clarify this issue, we examined incidence rates for PLC over the 15-year time period, 1978-92, in selected cancer registries around the world. With some exceptions, developed countries have experienced PLC increases in incidence whereas developing countries have experienced declines. Although the reasons for the trends are not entirely clear, the increased seroprevalence of HCV in the developed world and the elimination of HBV-cofactors in the developing world are likely to have contributed to the patterns. Further progress against PLC may be seen in the developing world once the HBV-vaccinated segment of the population reaches adulthood. Published 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Recent trends in cutaneous melanoma incidence among whites in the United States.

BACKGROUND: It is not yet clear whether increasing melanoma incidence is real or whether recent incidence trends mainly reflect improved diagnosis. To address this question, we examined the most recent melanoma incidence patterns among the white population stratified by sex, age, tumor stage, and tumor thickness by use of data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. METHODS: We examined log-transformed age-specific rates for melanoma by 5-year age groups and time periods by year of diagnosis and birth cohort. Melanoma trends were further examined among broader age groups (<40 years, 40-59 years, and > or =60 years) by tumor stage and tumor thickness. Rates were age-adjusted to the 1970 U.S. standard population, and trends were tested by use of a two-sided Student's t test. RESULTS: Melanoma incidence increased in females born since the 1960s. From 1974-1975 through 1988-1989, upward trends for the incidence of localized tumors and downward trends for the incidence of distant-stage tumors occurred in the age group under 40 years. In the more recent time period, 1990-1991 through 1996-1997, age specific rates among females compared with males generally remained stable or declined more for distant-stage tumors and increased less for local-stage tumors. Thin tumors (<1 mm) increased statistically significantly in all age groups (P<.05 for all), except in men under age 40 years. In contrast, rates for thick tumors (> or =4 mm) increased statistically significantly (P =.0003) only in males aged 60 years and older. CONCLUSION: Melanoma incidence may well continue to rise in the United States, at least until the majority of the current population in the middle-age groups becomes the oldest population. The recent trends may reflect increased sunlight exposure.

Declining ovarian cancer rates in U.S. women in relation to parity and oral contraceptive use.

Ovarian cancer incidence and mortality rates have declined among U.S. women age 35-59 years during the period 1970-1995. Epidemiologic studies have shown that ovarian cancer risk decreases with increasing parity and increasing duration of oral contraceptive use. During this period, parity has declined while oral contraceptive use has increased. We compared temporal trends in observed ovarian cancer incidence rates with rates predicted by changes in parity and duration of oral contraceptive use to determine whether the changes in these characteristics could explain the declining rates in younger women. In addition, we wished to examine whether oral contraceptive use continues to be protective to postmenopausal women. To predict changes in rates between 1970 and 1995, we assumed that increases in parity and duration of oral contraceptive use induce proportional decreases in incidence rates. We found that the rates predicted by these assumptions agreed well with observed rates in young women (age 30-49) but were substantially lower than observed rates in older women (age 50-64). The data indicate that the relative decrease in incidence rates due to the protective effect of oral contraceptive use declines with age.

Cancer surveillance series: non-Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence by histologic subtype in the United States from 1978 through 1995.

BACKGROUND: Clinical investigations have shown prognostic heterogeneity within the non-Hodgkin's lymphomas (NHLs) according to histology, but few descriptive studies have considered NHLs by subgroup. Our purpose is to assess the demographic patterns and any notable increases in population-based rates of different histologic subgroups of NHL. METHODS: Using data collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program of the National Cancer Institute, we calculated incidence rates for the major clinicopathologic categories of NHL by age, race, sex, geographic area, and time period. RESULTS: Among the 60 057 NHL cases diagnosed during the period from 1978 through 1995, total incidence (per 100 000 person-years) was 17.1 and 11.5 among white males and females, respectively, and 12.6 and 7.4 among black males and females, respectively. However, rates for follicular NHLs were two to three times greater among whites than among blacks, with little sex variation. Blacks demonstrated much higher incidence than whites for peripheral T-cell NHL, with the incidence rates higher in males than in females. For other NHL subgroups, the incidence rates for persons less than 60 years of age were generally higher among males than among females, with little racial difference; at older ages, the rates were higher among whites than among blacks, with little sex difference. High-grade NHL was the most rapidly rising subtype, particularly among males. Follicular NHL increased more rapidly in black males than in the other three race/sex groups. Overall, the broad categories of small lymphocytic, follicular, diffuse, high-grade, and peripheral T-cell NHL emerged as distinct entities with specific age, sex, racial, temporal, and geographic variations in rates. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from our large, population-based study reveal differing demographic patterns and incidence trends according to histologic group. Future descriptive and analytic investigations should evaluate NHL risks according to subtype, as defined by histology and new classification criteria.

Retinoblastoma incidence and sunlight exposure.

To evaluate positive findings from an earlier report, we studied the relation between retinoblastoma incidence and ultraviolet (UV-B) radiation levels in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) programme areas of the USA using weighted regression, as well as in international data after adjusting for race, economic development, and climate. The association was not statistically significant within the USA (P > 0.20). At an international level, the relation was significant overall and after adjusting for economic development, but it was not significant after adjusting for race and tropical climate, suggesting that environmental factors other than UV-B may be responsible for the geographic patterns of retinoblastoma.

Cancer surveillance series: changing patterns of cutaneous malignant melanoma mortality rates among whites in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Mortality from melanoma among whites is still increasing in the United States. In this study, we describe the changing patterns of melanoma mortality rates among whites by demographic factors and geography and further assess the relationship between the geographic patterns and the UV radiation (UV-B) level. METHODS: Age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates were computed by use of the 1970 U.S. population standard. Annual percent changes of mortality were estimated by fitting regression lines to the logarithm of rates. The relationships between melanoma mortality rates and UV-B level over time were assessed by weighted regressions. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: From 1950-1954 through 1990-1994, melanoma mortality rates increased by 191% and 84% among males and females, respectively. Mortality rates peaked in the 1930 through 1950 birth cohorts for females and in the 1935 through 1950 birth cohorts for males. In the 1950 through 1969 study period, melanoma mortality rates showed a strong North-South gradient, but the gradient weakened in recent periods. The absolute change in mortality for a 10% increase in UV-B among females decreased from 0.08 additional deaths per 100 000 person-years in 1950-1959 to 0.01 additional deaths in 1990-1995. In contrast, the absolute change in mortality among males showed little change over time; additional deaths increased from 0.11 to 0.12 per 100 000 person-years. CONCLUSIONS: Melanoma mortality in the United States reflects the complex interplay of UV radiation levels in each geographic region, the sun-protection behaviors of each generation of males and females in childhood and adulthood, the geographic mobility of the population, and the risk awareness and early detection.

Alternate ranging methods for cancer mortality maps.

BACKGROUND: Mapping techniques can highlight the spatial or temporal variations in rates of cancer mortality. In mapping geographic patterns of cancer mortality, spatial units are grouped into categories defined by specified rate ranges, and then the units in each category are assigned a particular color in the map. We examined the consequences of using different ranging methods when comparing maps over several time intervals. METHODS: Maps of mortality rates for cancers of the breast, lung (including the lung, trachea, bronchus, and pleura), and cervix uteri in the United States by county or state economic area are created for different time intervals between 1950 and 1994. Two ranging methods are employed: 1) Ranges are defined for individual time interval by the deciles of rates in that interval (ranging within intervals), and 2) constant ranges for all time intervals are defined by the deciles of rates for the entire 45-year period from 1950 through 1994 (ranging across intervals). The time intervals from 1950 through 1969 and from 1970 through 1994 were chosen to accommodate the availability of detailed county-level population estimates specifically for blacks starting in 1970. RESULTS: The ranging method has little impact on maps for breast cancer mortality, which changed little over time. For lung cancer, which increased over time, and cervix uteri cancer, which decreased over time, ranging within time intervals shows the geographic variability but does not convey the temporal trends. Trends are evident when ranging across time intervals is employed; however, geographic variability is partially obscured by the predominance of spatial units in the highest rate categories in the recent time intervals for lung cancer and in the early time intervals for cervix uteri cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Ranging within time intervals displays geographic patterns and changes in geographic patterns, regardless of time trends in rates. Ranging across time intervals shows temporal changes in rates but with some loss of information about geographic variability.

International trends and patterns of prostate cancer incidence and mortality.

Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer in western men, and incidence is rising rapidly in most countries, including low-risk populations. Age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates from 15 and 13 countries between 1973-77 and 1988-92, respectively, were compared to provide leads for future analytic studies. Large increases in both incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer were seen for all countries. For incidence, increases were more pronounced in the United States, Canada, Australia, France and the Asian countries, while the increases in medium-risk countries were moderate. Increases in incidence ranged from 25%-114%, 24%-55% and 15%-104% in high-, medium- and low-risk countries, respectively. Mortality rates rose more rapidly in Asian countries than in high-risk countries. Substantial differences in incidence and mortality across countries were evident, with U.S. blacks having rates that were 50-60 times higher than the rates in Shanghai, China. Increasing incidence rates in the United States and Canada are likely to be due in part to the widespread use of transurethral resection of the prostate and prostate-specific antigen testing, while increases in the Asian countries are probably related to westernization in these low-risk populations. The large disparities in incidence between high- and low-risk countries may be due to a combination of genetic and environmental factors. Future studies are needed to examine gene-gene and gene-environment interactions in various countries concurrently to shed light on the etiology of prostate cancer and to help elucidate reasons for the large differences in risk between populations.

Cancer incidence trends in urban shanghai, 1972-1994: an update.

Incidence rates for a number of cancers in urban Shanghai, China, have been changing markedly. Herein we update the trends using population-based data from the Shanghai Cancer Registry for 1972-1994. During 1993-1994, cancers of the lung, stomach, and liver were the 3 leading forms among men, with age-adjusted (world standard) incidence rates of 50.9, 39.2, and 26.5 per 100,000 person-years, respectively, followed by cancers of the colon (12.4) and esophagus (10.0). Among women, cancers of the breast (27.5), stomach (19.1), and lung (17.7) were the most common tumors, followed by cancers of the colon (11.3) and liver (9.4). Over the 23-year period, the rate for all cancers combined, excluding non-melanoma skin cancer, decreased from 247.5 to 215.2 among men and from 173.6 to 154.0 among women. However, trends for individual forms of cancer varied considerably. Rates doubled for cancers of the colon and biliary tract in both sexes, and they increased substantially for cancers of the brain and nervous system, kidney, pancreas, prostate, corpus uteri, female breast, and ovary, and for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Rates for cancers of the lung and rectum changed little. Rates declined by at least one-half for cancers of the esophagus and cervix, with notable decreases also for cancers of the stomach and liver. Some of these trends may reflect variations in diagnostic or screening practices, although changes in lifestyle and other environmental exposures are likely to play important roles. Further epidemiologic research in China is needed to identify risk factors influencing the cancer incidence trends.

Cancer surveillance series: changing geographic patterns of lung cancer mortality in the United States, 1950 through 1994.

BACKGROUND: Geographic surveys revealing variations in lung cancer mortality rates across the United States have prompted epidemiologic studies in high-risk communities. We have updated these maps to track the changing patterns and to provide further clues to the determinants of lung cancer. METHODS: Age-adjusted race- and sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates from 1950 through 1994 were calculated for nine Census Divisions and 508 State Economic Areas of the United States. RESULTS: Pronounced geographic variation in lung cancer rates was evident, with the patterns changing substantially over time. Among white males in the 1950s and 1960s, high rates were observed in urban areas of the northeast and north central states and in areas along the southeast and Gulf coasts. By the 1970s, the northern excess began to fade, with high rates starting to cover wider areas of the south. By the 1980s to the mid-1990s, clustering of elevated rates was prominent across the southeast and south central areas, with relatively low rates throughout much of the northeast. Among white females, little geographic variation was evident in the 1950s, but thereafter relatively high rates began to appear in clusters along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. For both sexes, consistently low rates were seen in the mountain and the plains states. Rates among blacks were consistently elevated in northern areas and low across the south. CONCLUSIONS: The changing mortality patterns for lung cancer generally coincide with regional trends in cigarette smoking, indicating that public health measures aimed at smoking prevention and cessation should have a dramatic effect in reducing lung cancer rates.

Cancer surveillance series: recent trends in childhood cancer incidence and mortality in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Public concern about possible increases in childhood cancer incidence in the United States led us to examine recent incidence and mortality patterns. METHODS: Cancers diagnosed in 14540 children under age 15 years from 1975 through 1995 and reported to nine population-based registries in the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program were investigated. Age-adjusted incidence was analyzed according to anatomic site and histologic categories of the International Classification of Childhood Cancer. Age-adjusted U.S. mortality rates were calculated. Trends in rates were evaluated by use of standard regression methods. RESULTS: A modest rise in the incidence of leukemia, the most common childhood cancer, was largely due to an abrupt increase from 1983 to 1984; rates have decreased slightly since 1989. For brain and other central nervous system (CNS) cancers, incidence rose modestly, although statistically significantly (two-sided P = .020), largely from 1983 through 1986. A few rare childhood cancers demonstrated upward trends (e.g., the 40% of skin cancers designated as dermatofibrosarcomas, adrenal neuroblastomas, and retinoblastomas, the latter two in infants only). In contrast, incidence decreased modestly but statistically significantly for Hodgkin's disease (two-sided P = .037). Mortality rates declined steadily for all major childhood cancer categories, although less rapidly for brain/CNS cancers. CONCLUSIONS: There was no substantial change in incidence for the major pediatric cancers, and rates have remained relatively stable since the mid-1980s. The modest increases that were observed for brain/CNS cancers, leukemia, and infant neuroblastoma were confined to the mid-1980s. The patterns suggest that the increases likely reflected diagnostic improvements or reporting changes. Dramatic declines in childhood cancer mortality represent treatment-related improvements in survival.

Rising incidence of renal cell cancer in the United States.

CONTEXT: Clinical surveys have revealed that incidental detection of renal cell carcinoma is rising because of increased use of imaging procedures. OBJECTIVE: To examine incidence, mortality, and survival trends of renal cell and renal pelvis cancers by age, sex, race, and tumor stage at diagnosis. DESIGN: Calculation of age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates, along with 5-year relative survival rates, using data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients diagnosed as having kidney cancer from 1975 through 1995 in the 9 geographic areas covered by tumor registries in the SEER program, which represent about 10% of the US population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence, mortality, and 5-year relative survival rates by time periods. RESULTS: The age-adjusted incidence rates for renal cell carcinoma between 1975 and 1995 for white men, white women, black men, and black women were 9.6, 4.4, 11.1, and 4.9 per 100000 person-years, respectively. The corresponding rates for renal pelvis cancer were 1.5, 0.7, 0.8, and 0.5 per 100000 person-years. Renal cell cancer incidence rates increased steadily between 1975 and 1995, by 2.3% annually among white men, 3.1 % among white women, 3.9% among black men, and 4.3% among black women. Increases were greatest for localized tumors but were also seen for more advanced and unstaged tumors. In contrast, the incidence rates for renal pelvis cancer declined among white men and remained stable among white women and blacks. Although 5-year relative survival rates for patients with renal cell cancer improved among whites but not among blacks, kidney cancer mortality rates increased in all race and sex groups. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing detection of presymptomatic tumors by imaging procedures, such as ultrasonography, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging, does not fully explain the upward incidence trends of renal cell carcinoma. Other factors may be contributing to the rapidly increasing incidence of renal cell cancer in the United States, particularly among blacks.