Projected climate change impact on a coastal sea-As significant as all current pressures combined.

Climate change influences the ocean's physical and biogeochemical conditions, causing additional pressures on marine environments and ecosystems, now and in the future. Such changes occur in environments that already today suffer under pressures from, for example, eutrophication, pollution, shipping, and more. We demonstrate how to implement climate change into regional marine spatial planning by introducing data of future temperature, salinity, and sea ice cover from regional ocean climate model projections to an existing cumulative impact model. This makes it possible to assess climate change impact in relation to pre-existing cumulative impact from current human activities. Results indicate that end-of-century projected climate change alone is a threat of the same magnitude as the combination of all current pressures to the marine environment. These findings give marine planners and policymakers forewarning on how future climate change may impact marine ecosystems, across space, emission scenarios, and in relation to other pressures.

Future projections of record-breaking sea surface temperature and cyanobacteria bloom events in the Baltic Sea.

Aiming to inform both marine management and the public, coupled environmental-climate scenario simulations for the future Baltic Sea are analyzed. The projections are performed under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (medium and high-end) and three nutrient load scenarios spanning the range of plausible socio-economic pathways. Assuming an optimistic scenario with perfect implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), the projections suggest that the achievement of Good Environmental Status will take at least a few more decades. However, for the perception of the attractiveness of beach recreational sites, extreme events such as tropical nights, record-breaking sea surface temperature (SST), and cyanobacteria blooms may be more important than mean ecosystem indicators. Our projections suggest that the incidence of record-breaking summer SSTs will increase significantly. Under the BSAP, record-breaking cyanobacteria blooms will no longer occur in the future, but may reappear at the end of the century in a business-as-usual nutrient load scenario.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population.

Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes.

Impact of climate change on ecological quality indicators and biogeochemical fluxes in the Baltic sea: a multi-model ensemble study.

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.

Modeling nutrient transports and exchanges of nutrients between shallow regions and the open Baltic sea in present and future climate.

We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.

Diagnostic value of procalcitonin serum levels in comparison with C-reactive protein in allogeneic stem cell transplantation.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Infections represent the major complications following allogeneic stem cell transplantation (SCT). A promising marker for a more specific and early detection of bacterial or fungal infections is procalcitonin (PCT). DESIGN AND METHODS: Maximum values (m) and increase (Delta) of PCT and C-reactive protein (CRP) were prospectively analyzed during 214 clinical events in a cohort of 61 patients undergoing allogeneic SCT. Systemic reactions during bacterial or fungal infections were classified according to the ACCP/SCCM criteria. RESULTS: mPCT and mCRP (normal <0.5 microg/L and <5 mg/L, respectively) levels were high during bacterial and fungal infections (median 2.3 microg/L and 188 mg/L), moderately elevated during fever of unknown origin (median 1.5 microg/L and 82 mg/L) and low during clinical events for which there was no evidence of bacterial or fungal infections (median 0.4 microg/L and 55 mg/L). The area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.70 for mPCT, 0.76 for mCRP, 0.76 for DeltaPCT and 0.83 for DeltaCRP. Cut-off concentrations for optimum prediction of bacterial or fungal infection were: mPCT > 1 microg/L, mCRP > 100 mg/L, DeltaPCT > 1 microg/L and DeltaCRP > 50 mg/L. An increase of PCT during a bacterial or fungal infection was usually detected 1 day after the onset of fever, while the rise of CRP occurred 1 day before. mPCT was strongly correlated with the severity of systemic reaction during infection (sepsis vs severe sepsis/septic shock: p=0.0002). INTERPRETATION AND CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic value of PCT was not superior to that of CRP in the detection of bacterial or fungal infections after allogeneic SCT. However, PCT assays may be useful in studies which compare the severity of infectious complications.