ABSTRACT
Background & Aims: Non-invasive models stratifying clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) are limited. Herein, we developed a new non-invasive model for predicting CSPH in patients with compensated cirrhosis and investigated whether carvedilol can prevent hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified using the new model. Methods: Non-invasive risk factors of CSPH were identified via systematic review and meta-analysis of studies involving patients with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). A new non-invasive model was validated for various performance aspects in three cohorts, i.e., a multicenter HVPG cohort, a follow-up cohort, and a carvedilol-treating cohort. Results: In the meta-analysis with six studies (n = 819), liver stiffness measurement and platelet count were identified as independent risk factors for CSPH and were used to develop the new "CSPH risk" model. In the HVPG cohort (n = 151), the new model accurately predicted CSPH with cutoff values of 0 and -0.68 for ruling in and out CSPH, respectively. In the follow-up cohort (n = 1,102), the cumulative incidences of decompensation events significantly differed using the cutoff values of <-0.68 (low-risk), -0.68 to 0 (medium-risk), and >0 (high-risk). In the carvedilol-treated cohort, patients with high-risk CSPH treated with carvedilol (n = 81) had lower rates of decompensation events than non-selective beta-blockers untreated patients with high-risk CSPH (n = 613 before propensity score matching [PSM], n = 162 after PSM). Conclusions: Treatment with carvedilol significantly reduces the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified by the new model.