Building a predictive model of low birth weight in low- and middle-income countries: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Low birth weight (LBW, < 2500 g) infants are at significant risk for death and disability. Improving outcomes for LBW infants requires access to advanced neonatal care, which is a limited resource in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Predictive modeling might be useful in LMICs to identify mothers at high-risk of delivering a LBW infant to facilitate referral to centers capable of treating these infants. METHODS: We developed predictive models for LBW using the NICHD Global Network for Women's and Children's Health Research Maternal and Newborn Health Registry. This registry enrolled pregnant women from research sites in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, Kenya, Guatemala, India (2 sites: Belagavi, Nagpur), Pakistan, and Bangladesh between January 2017 - December 2020. We tested five predictive models: decision tree, random forest, logistic regression, K-nearest neighbor and support vector machine. RESULTS: We report a rate of LBW of 13.8% among the eight Global Network sites from 2017-2020, with a range of 3.8% (Kenya) and approximately 20% (in each Asian site). Of the five models tested, the logistic regression model performed best with an area under the curve of 0.72, an accuracy of 61% and a recall of 72%. All of the top performing models identified clinical site, maternal weight, hypertensive disorders, severe antepartum hemorrhage and antenatal care as key variables in predicting LBW. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive modeling can identify women at high risk for delivering a LBW infant with good sensitivity using clinical variables available prior to delivery in LMICs. Such modeling is the first step in the development of a clinical decision support tool to assist providers in decision-making regarding referral of these women prior to delivery. Consistent referral of women at high-risk for delivering a LBW infant could have extensive public health consequences in LMICs by directing limited resources for advanced neonatal care to the infants at highest risk.

Pragmatic, randomized, blinded trial to shorten pharmacologic treatment of newborns with neonatal opioid withdrawal syndrome (NOWS).

BACKGROUND: The incidence of maternal opioid use in the USA has increased substantially since 2000. As a consequence of opioid use during pregnancy, the incidence of neonatal opioid withdrawal syndrome (NOWS) has increased fivefold between 2002 and 2012. Pharmacological therapy is indicated when signs of NOWS cannot be controlled, and the objective of pharmacological therapy is to control NOWS signs. Once pharmacologic therapy has started, there is great variability in strategies to wean infants. An important rationale for studying weaning of pharmacological treatment for NOWS is that weaning represents the longest time interval of drug treatment. Stopping medications too early may not completely treat NOWS symptoms. METHODS: This will be a pragmatic, randomized, blinded trial of opioid weaning to determine whether more rapid weaning, compared to slow wean, will reduce the number of days of opioid treatment in infants receiving morphine or methadone as the primary treatment for NOWS. DISCUSSION: The proposed study is a pragmatic trial to determine whether a rapid-weaning intervention reduces the number of days of opioid treatment, compared to a slow-weaning intervention, and we powered the proposed study to detect a 2-day difference in the length of treatment. Hospitals will be able to use either morphine or methadone with the knowledge that we may find a positive treatment effect for both, one, or neither drugs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04214834. Registered January 2, 2020.

Generalizability of the Necrotizing Enterocolitis Surgery Trial to the Target Population of Eligible Infants.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate whether infants randomized in the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network Necrotizing Enterocolitis Surgery Trial differed from eligible infants and whether differences affected the generalizability of trial results. STUDY DESIGN: Secondary analysis of infants enrolled in Necrotizing Enterocolitis Surgery Trial (born 2010-2017, with follow-up through 2019) at 20 US academic medical centers and an observational data set of eligible infants through 2013. Infants born ≤1000 g and diagnosed with necrotizing enterocolitis or spontaneous intestinal perforation requiring surgical intervention at ≤8 weeks were eligible. The target population included trial-eligible infants (randomized and nonrandomized) born during the first half of the study with available detailed preoperative data. Using model-based weighting methods, we estimated the effect of initial laparotomy vs peritoneal drain had the target population been randomized. RESULTS: The trial included 308 randomized infants. The target population included 382 (156 randomized and 226 eligible, non-randomized) infants. Compared with the target population, fewer randomized infants had necrotizing enterocolitis (31% vs 47%) or died before discharge (27% vs 41%). However, incidence of the primary composite outcome, death or neurodevelopmental impairment, was similar (69% vs 72%). Effect estimates for initial laparotomy vs drain weighted to the target population were largely unchanged from the original trial after accounting for preoperative diagnosis of necrotizing enterocolitis (adjusted relative risk [95% CI]: 0.85 [0.71-1.03] in target population vs 0.81 [0.64-1.04] in trial) or spontaneous intestinal perforation (1.02 [0.79-1.30] vs 1.11 [0.95-1.31]). CONCLUSION: Despite differences between randomized and eligible infants, estimated treatment effects in the trial and target population were similar, supporting the generalizability of trial results. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT01029353.

Exposure to umbilical cord management approaches and death or neurodevelopmental impairment at 22-26 months' corrected age after extremely preterm birth.

OBJECTIVE: To compare death or severe neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI) at 22-26 months' corrected age (CA) among extremely preterm infants following exposure to different forms of umbilical cord management. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network registry. PATIENTS: Infants born <27 weeks' gestation in 2016-2018 without severe congenital anomalies who received active treatment after birth and underwent neurodevelopmental assessments between 22 and 26 months' CA. EXPOSURES: Immediate cord clamping (ICC), delayed cord clamping (DCC) or umbilical cord milking (UCM). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURE: Primary composite outcome of death or severe NDI at 22-26 months' CA, defined as severe cerebral palsy, Bayley-III cognitive/motor composite score <70, bilateral deafness or blindness; individual components were examined as secondary outcomes. Multivariable regression examined associations, adjusting for risk factors identified a priori and potential confounders. Mediation analysis explored the effect of severe intraventricular haemorrhage (IVH) on the exposure-outcome relationship. RESULTS: Among 1900 infants, 64.1% were exposed to ICC, 27.8% to DCC and 8.1% to UCM. Compared with ICC-exposed infants, DCC-exposed infants had lower odds of death or severe NDI (adjusted OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.83). No statistically significant differences were observed when comparing UCM with either ICC or DCC, or between secondary outcomes across groups. Association between cord management and the primary outcome was not mediated by severe IVH. CONCLUSION: Compared with ICC, DCC exposure was associated with lower death or severe NDI at 22-26 months' CA among extremely preterm infants, which was not mediated by severe IVH.

Special considerations in randomized trials investigating neonatal surgical treatments.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are challenging, but are the studies most likely to change practice and benefit patients. RCTs investigating neonatal surgical therapies are rare. The Necrotizing Enterocolitis Surgery Trial (NEST) was the first surgical RCT conducted by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Neonatal Research Network (NRN), and multiple lessons were learned. NEST was conducted over a 7.25-year enrollment period and the primary outcome was death or neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI) at 18-22 months corrected age. Surgical investigators designing clinical trials involving neonatal surgical treatments have many considerations to include, including how to study eligible but non-randomized patients, heterogeneity of treatment effect, use of frequentist and Bayesian analyses, assessment of generalizability, and anticipating criticisms during peer review. Surgeons are encouraged to embrace these challenges and seek innovative methods to acquire evidence that will be used to improve patient outcomes.

Initial Laparotomy Versus Peritoneal Drainage in Extremely Low Birthweight Infants With Surgical Necrotizing Enterocolitis or Isolated Intestinal Perforation: A Multicenter Randomized Clinical Trial.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine which initial surgical treatment results in the lowest rate of death or neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI) in premature infants with necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) or isolated intestinal perforation (IP). SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: The impact of initial laparotomy versus peritoneal drainage for NEC or IP on the rate of death or NDI in extremely low birth weight infants is unknown. METHODS: We conducted the largest feasible randomized trial in 20 US centers, comparing initial laparotomy versus peritoneal drainage. The primary outcome was a composite of death or NDI at 18 to 22 months corrected age, analyzed using prespecified frequentist and Bayesian approaches. RESULTS: Of 992 eligible infants, 310 were randomized and 96% had primary outcome assessed. Death or NDI occurred in 69% of infants in the laparotomy group versus 70% with drainage [adjusted relative risk (aRR) 1.0; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.87-1.14]. A preplanned analysis identified an interaction between preoperative diagnosis and treatment group (P = 0.03). With a preoperative diagnosis of NEC, death or NDI occurred in 69% after laparotomy versus 85% with drainage (aRR 0.81; 95% CI: 0.64-1.04). The Bayesian posterior probability that laparotomy was beneficial (risk difference <0) for a preoperative diagnosis of NEC was 97%. For preoperative diagnosis of IP, death or NDI occurred in 69% after laparotomy versus 63% with drainage (aRR, 1.11; 95% CI: 0.95-1.31); Bayesian probability of benefit with laparotomy = 18%. CONCLUSIONS: There was no overall difference in death or NDI rates at 18 to 22 months corrected age between initial laparotomy versus drainage. However, the preoperative diagnosis of NEC or IP modified the impact of initial treatment.

Associations Among PTSD and Postconcussive Symptoms in the Long-Term Impact of Military-Relevant Brain Injury Consortium-Chronic Effects of Neurotrauma Consortium Prospective, Longitudinal Study Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To describe rates of mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) with and without concurrent posttraumatic stress disorder a sample of former and current military personnel, and to compare the factor structure of the Neurobehavioral Symptom Inventory (NSI) based on whether participants sustained mTBI with and without a positive posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) screen. SETTING: Participants recruited and tested at 7 Veterans Affairs (VA) sites and 1 military training facility as part of a national, longitudinal study of mental health, physical, and cognitive outcomes among veterans and service members. Participants: Total of 1540 former and current military personnel with a history of combat exposure. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of observational data, including confirmatory factor analysis. Main Measures: NSI and PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5). RESULTS: Most participants (81.5%) had a history of mTBI and almost half of these screened positive for PTSD (40.5%); only 23.9% of participants without a history of mTBI screened positive for PTSD. Participants with a history of mTBI reported higher elevations of NSI and PCL-5 symptoms compared with those without a history of mTBI. Confirmatory factor analyses of the NSI demonstrated good model fit using a 4-factor structure (somatosensory, affective, cognitive, and vestibular symptoms) among groups of participants both with and without a history of mTBI. CONCLUSION: Symptoms of mTBI and PTSD are strongly associated with each other among veterans and service members with a history of combat exposure. The 4-factor NSI structure is supported among participants with and without a history of mTBI. These findings suggest the potential benefit of a holistic approach to evaluation and treatment of veterans and service members with concurrent and elevated postconcussive and posttraumatic stress symptoms.

Umbilical Cord Milking vs Delayed Cord Clamping and Associations with In-Hospital Outcomes among Extremely Premature Infants.

OBJECTIVE: To compare in-hospital outcomes after umbilical cord milking vs delayed cord clamping among infants <29 weeks of gestation. STUDY DESIGN: Multicenter retrospective study of infants born <29 weeks of gestation from 2016 to 2018 without congenital anomalies who received active treatment at delivery and were exposed to umbilical cord milking or delayed cord clamping. The primary outcome was mortality or severe (grade III or IV) intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) by 36 weeks of postmenstrual age (PMA). Secondary outcomes assessed at 36 weeks of PMA were mortality, severe IVH, any IVH or mortality, and a composite of mortality or major morbidity. Outcomes were assessed using multivariable regression, incorporating mortality risk factors identified a priori, confounders, and center. A prespecified, exploratory analysis evaluated severe IVH in 2 gestational age strata, 22-246/7 and 25-286/7 weeks. RESULTS: Among 1834 infants, 23.6% were exposed to umbilical cord milking and 76.4% to delayed cord clamping. The primary outcome, mortality or severe IVH, occurred in 21.1% of infants: 28.3% exposed to umbilical cord milking and 19.1% exposed to delayed cord clamping, with an aOR that was similar between groups (aOR 1.45, 95% CI 0.93, 2.26). Infants exposed to umbilical cord milking had higher odds of severe IVH (19.8% umbilical cord milking vs 11.8% delayed cord clamping, aOR 1.70 95% CI 1.20, 2.43), as did the 25-286/7 week stratum (14.8% umbilical cord milking vs 7.4% delayed cord clamping, aOR 1.89 95% CI 1.22, 2.95). Other secondary outcomes were similar between groups. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis of extremely preterm infants suggests that delayed cord clamping is the preferred practice for placental transfusion, as umbilical cord milking exposure was associated with an increase in the adverse outcome of severe IVH. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00063063.

BayesCTDesign: An R Package for Bayesian Trial Design Using Historical Control Data.

This article introduces the R (R Core Team 2019) package BayesCTDesign for two-arm randomized Bayesian trial design using historical control data when available, and simple two-arm randomized Bayesian trial design when historical control data is not available. The package BayesCTDesign, which is available on CRAN, has two simulation functions, historic_sim() and simple_sim() for studying trial characteristics under user defined scenarios, and two methods print() and plot() for displaying summaries of the simulated trial characteristics. The package BayesCTDesign works with two-arm trials with equal sample sizes per arm. The package BayesCTDesign allows a user to study Gaussian, Poisson, Bernoulli, Weibull, Lognormal, and Piecewise Exponential (pwe) outcomes. Power for two-sided hypothesis tests at a user defined alpha is estimated via simulation using a test within each simulation replication that involves comparing a 95% credible interval for the outcome specific treatment effect measure to the null case value. If the 95% credible interval excludes the null case value, then the null hypothesis is rejected, else the null hypothesis is accepted. In the article, the idea of including historical control data in a Bayesian analysis is reviewed, the estimation process of BayesCTDesign is explained, and the user interface is described. Finally, the BayesCTDesign is illustrated via several examples.

Placental transfusion and short-term outcomes among extremely preterm infants.

OBJECTIVE: To compare short-term outcomes after placental transfusion (delayed cord clamping (DCC) or umbilical cord milking (UCM)) versus immediate cord clamping among extremely preterm infants. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network registry. PATIENTS: Infants born <29 weeks' gestation in 2016 or 2017 without congenital anomalies who received active treatment after delivery. INTERVENTION/EXPOSURE: DCC or UCM. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes: (1) composite of mortality or major morbidity by 36 weeks' postmenstrual age (PMA); (2) mortality by 36 weeks PMA and (3) composite of major morbidities by 36 weeks' PMA. Secondary composite outcomes: (1) any grade intraventricular haemorrhage or mortality by 36 weeks' PMA and (2) hypotension treatment in the first 24 postnatal hours or mortality in the first 12 postnatal hours. Outcomes were assessed using multivariable regression, adjusting for mortality risk factors identified a priori, significant confounders and centre as a random effect. RESULTS: Among 3116 infants, 40% were exposed to placental transfusion, which was not associated with the primary composite outcome of mortality or major morbidity by 36 weeks' PMA (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.26, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.66). However, exposure was associated with decreased mortality by 36 weeks' PMA (aOR 0.71, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.92) and decreased hypotension treatment in first 24 postnatal hours (aOR 0.66, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.82). CONCLUSION: In this extremely preterm infant cohort, exposure to placental transfusion was not associated with the composite outcome of mortality or major morbidity, though there was a reduction in mortality by 36 weeks' PMA. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00063063.

Predictive Modeling for Perinatal Mortality in Resource-Limited Settings.

Importance: The overwhelming majority of fetal and neonatal deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. Fetal and neonatal risk assessment tools may be useful to predict the risk of death. Objective: To develop risk prediction models for intrapartum stillbirth and neonatal death. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Global Network for Women's and Children's Health Research population-based vital registry, including clinical sites in South Asia (India and Pakistan), Africa (Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, and Kenya), and Latin America (Guatemala). A total of 502 648 pregnancies were prospectively enrolled in the registry. Exposures: Risk factors were added sequentially into the data set in 4 scenarios: (1) prenatal, (2) predelivery, (3) delivery and day 1, and (4) postdelivery through day 2. Main Outcomes and Measures: Data sets were randomly divided into 10 groups of 3 analysis data sets including training (60%), test (20%), and validation (20%). Conventional and advanced machine learning modeling techniques were applied to assess predictive abilities using area under the curve (AUC) for intrapartum stillbirth and neonatal mortality. Results: All prenatal and predelivery models had predictive accuracy for both intrapartum stillbirth and neonatal mortality with AUC values 0.71 or less. Five of 6 models for neonatal mortality based on delivery/day 1 and postdelivery/day 2 had increased predictive accuracy with AUC values greater than 0.80. Birth weight was the most important predictor for neonatal death in both postdelivery scenarios with independent predictive ability with AUC values of 0.78 and 0.76, respectively. The addition of 4 other top predictors increased AUC to 0.83 and 0.87 for the postdelivery scenarios, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Models based on prenatal or predelivery data had predictive accuracy for intrapartum stillbirths and neonatal mortality of AUC values 0.71 or less. Models that incorporated delivery data had good predictive accuracy for risk of neonatal mortality. Birth weight was the most important predictor for neonatal mortality.

Structural neuroimaging in mild traumatic brain injury: A chronic effects of neurotrauma consortium study.

OBJECTIVES: The chronic effects of neurotrauma consortium (CENC) observational study is a multisite investigation designed to examine the long-term longitudinal effects of mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). All participants in this initial CENC cohort had a history of deployment in Operation Enduring Freedom (Afghanistan), Operation Iraqi Freedom (Iraq), and/or their follow-on conflicts (Operation Freedom's Sentinel). All participants undergo extensive medical, neuropsychological, and neuroimaging assessments and either meet criteria for any lifetime mTBI or not. These assessments are integrated into six CENC core studies-Biorepository, Biostatistics, Data and Study Management, Neuroimaging, and Neuropathology. METHODS: The current study outlines the quantitative neuroimaging methods managed by the Neuroimaging Core using FreeSurfer automated software for image quantification. RESULTS: At this writing, 319 participants from the CENC observational study have completed all baseline assessments including the imaging protocol and tertiary data quality assurance procedures. CONCLUSIONS/DISCUSSION: The preliminary findings of this initial cohort are reported to describe how the Neuroimaging Core manages neuroimaging quantification for CENC studies.

Exploring the factor structure of a battery of neuropsychological assessments among the CENC cohort.

OBJECTIVE: The goal of the Chronic Effects of Neurotrauma Consortium (CENC) study is to explore the effects of concussions among Service Members and Veterans. A factor model was fit to selected neuropsychological measures to identify potentially useful relationships between assessments collected on CENC-enrolled participants. METHOD: 492 post-9/11 participants with combat exposure were enrolled across four VA study sites. Participants completed assessments including concussion history, neurocognitive functioning, and self-report questionnaires. Exploratory factor analyses (EFA) using four different methods with varimax and promax rotations were used to analyse the cognitive variables. Final model selection was based on factor loadings towards simple structure. RESULTS: The scree plot suggested the number of factors to be extracted was between 4 and 5. EFA produced a 5-factor MINRES model with promax rotation that resulted in a factor loading with variables loading on only one factor with a predefined threshold (0.40). Variables loaded on five cognition domains: list learning, working memory/executive skills, cognitive control, fluency, and memory. CONCLUSION: These results provide reasonable evidence that data collected from the CENC neuropsychological battery can be reduced to five clinically useful factors. This will enable us to use the factors for further study of the impact of concussion on neurodegeneration.

Myeloablative Autologous Stem-Cell Transplantation for Severe Scleroderma.

BACKGROUND: Despite current therapies, diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (scleroderma) often has a devastating outcome. We compared myeloablative CD34+ selected autologous hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation with immunosuppression by means of 12 monthly infusions of cyclophosphamide in patients with scleroderma. METHODS: We randomly assigned adults (18 to 69 years of age) with severe scleroderma to undergo myeloablative autologous stem-cell transplantation (36 participants) or to receive cyclophosphamide (39 participants). The primary end point was a global rank composite score comparing participants with each other on the basis of a hierarchy of disease features assessed at 54 months: death, event-free survival (survival without respiratory, renal, or cardiac failure), forced vital capacity, the score on the Disability Index of the Health Assessment Questionnaire, and the modified Rodnan skin score. RESULTS: In the intention-to-treat population, global rank composite scores at 54 months showed the superiority of transplantation (67% of 1404 pairwise comparisons favored transplantation and 33% favored cyclophosphamide, P=0.01). In the per-protocol population (participants who received a transplant or completed ≥9 doses of cyclophosphamide), the rate of event-free survival at 54 months was 79% in the transplantation group and 50% in the cyclophosphamide group (P=0.02). At 72 months, Kaplan-Meier estimates of event-free survival (74% vs. 47%) and overall survival (86% vs. 51%) also favored transplantation (P=0.03 and 0.02, respectively). A total of 9% of the participants in the transplantation group had initiated disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) by 54 months, as compared with 44% of those in the cyclophosphamide group (P=0.001). Treatment-related mortality in the transplantation group was 3% at 54 months and 6% at 72 months, as compared with 0% in the cyclophosphamide group. CONCLUSIONS: Myeloablative autologous hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation achieved long-term benefits in patients with scleroderma, including improved event-free and overall survival, at a cost of increased expected toxicity. Rates of treatment-related death and post-transplantation use of DMARDs were lower than those in previous reports of nonmyeloablative transplantation. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the National Institutes of Health; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00114530 .).

Bayesian clinical trial design using Markov models with applications to autoimmune disease.

Immune Thrombocytopenia is an autoimmune disease associated with bleeding that is treated by increasing the platelet count to a level where the chance of uncontrollable bleeding is low. Failure occurs when platelet counts are not raised sufficiently (initial failure), or when high platelet counts are not maintained after initial success (relapse). In this paper, we propose a Bayesian clinical trial design that uses a Markov multistate model along with a power prior for the parameters which incorporates historical control data to estimate transition rates among two randomized groups as defined by the model. A detailed simulation is carried out to examine the operating characteristics of a trial to test whether a new treatment reduces the relapse rate by 40% relative to standard care when data from 60 historical controls treated with standard care is available. We also use simulated data to demonstrate effects of discordance between historical and randomized controls on the estimated hazard ratios. Finally, we use a simulated trial to demonstrate briefly what type of results the model can give and how those results can be used to address hypotheses regarding treatment effects. Using simulated data, we show that the model yields good operating characteristics when the historical and randomized controls are from the same population, and demonstrate how discordance between the control groups affects the operating characteristics.

Community-Based Health Education Programs Designed to Improve Clinical Measures Are Unlikely to Reduce Short-Term Costs or Utilization Without Additional Features Targeting These Outcomes.

Stakeholders often expect programs for persons with chronic conditions to "bend the cost curve." This study assessed whether a diabetes self-management education (DSME) program offered as part of a multicomponent initiative could affect emergency department (ED) visits, hospital stays, and the associated costs for an underserved population in addition to the clinical indicators that DSME programs attempt to improve. The program was implemented in Camden, New Jersey, by the Camden Coalition of Healthcare Providers to address disparities in diabetes care. Data used are from medical records and from patient-level information about hospital services from Camden's hospitals. Using multivariate regression models to control for individual characteristics, changes in utilization over time and changes relative to 2 comparison groups were assessed. No reductions in ED visits, inpatient stays, or costs for participants were found over time or relative to the comparison groups. High utilization rates and costs for diabetes are associated with longer term disease progression and its sequelae; thus, DSME or peer support may not affect these in the near term. Some clinical indicators improved among participants, and these might lead to fewer costly adverse health events in the future. DSME deployed at the community level, without explicit segmentation and targeting of high health care utilizers or without components designed to affect costs and utilization, should not be expected to reduce short-term medical needs for participating individuals or care-seeking behaviors such that utilization is reduced. Stakeholders must include financial outcomes in a program's design if those outcomes are to improve.

Sweet-liking is associated with transformation of heavy drinking into alcohol-related problems in young adults with high novelty seeking.

BACKGROUND: We tested the hypothesis that high novelty seeking (NS) (a trait that promotes experimentation) and sweet-liking (SL) (a phenotype that may reflect processing of hedonic stimuli) act independently and synergistically to increase the risk of having alcohol-related problems in young adults. METHODS: A sample of 163 young adults, ages 18 to 26, was recruited and balanced for gender and evidence for presence of alcohol problems to yield 150 evaluable participants. NS was evaluated using the Tridimensional Personality Questionnaire. Pleasurable response to sweet taste was tested to identify sweet-likers and sweet-dislikers. Alcohol use and problems were assessed by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test and the Rutgers Alcohol Problem Index. RESULTS: NS, but not SL, was positively and significantly associated with alcohol consumption and alcohol problems; however, the effect of NS on alcohol problems was significantly enhanced in the presence of the SL phenotype, thus showing a strong synergistic interaction. The combination of SL and high NS was associated with increased odds of having alcohol problems -20.64 (95% CI: -89.98, 4.74) compared to those with low NS and sweet-disliking. Other combinations did not produce such odds ratios. SL and low NS showed OR = 1.88 (95% CI 0.44, 7.99), and sweet-dislikers and high novelty seekers had OR = 4.07 (95%, CI 1.01, 16.46). CONCLUSIONS: These results support and extend our hypothesis that as clinically distinct phenotypes, high NS and the SL phenotype are associated with risk of alcohol-related problems. High NS is associated with the use of alcohol, and the presence of the SL phenotype appears to bias an individual to alcohol problems once alcohol use is initiated. Understanding the biology and phenomenology of these phenotypes will allow a more complete picture of the processes that lead to alcohol problems.

Random forest methodology for model-based recursive partitioning: the mobForest package for R.

BACKGROUND: Recursive partitioning is a non-parametric modeling technique, widely used in regression and classification problems. Model-based recursive partitioning is used to identify groups of observations with similar values of parameters of the model of interest. The mob() function in the party package in R implements model-based recursive partitioning method. This method produces predictions based on single tree models. Predictions obtained through single tree models are very sensitive to small changes to the learning sample. We extend the model-based recursive partition method to produce predictions based on multiple tree models constructed on random samples achieved either through bootstrapping (random sampling with replacement) or subsampling (random sampling without replacement) on learning data. RESULTS: Here we present an R package called "mobForest" that implements bagging and random forests methodology for model-based recursive partitioning. The mobForest package constructs large number of model-based trees and the predictions are aggregated across these trees resulting in more stable predictions. The package also includes functions for computing predictive accuracy estimates and plots, residuals plot, and variable importance plot. CONCLUSION: The mobForest package implements a random forest type approach for model-based recursive partitioning. The R package along with it source code is available at http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=mobForest.

Neuropsychological dysfunction and neuroimaging abnormalities in neurologically intact adults with sickle cell anemia.

CONTEXT: Sickle cell anemia (SCA) is a chronic illness causing progressive deterioration in quality of life. Brain dysfunction may be the most important and least studied problem affecting individuals with this disease. OBJECTIVE: To measure neurocognitive dysfunction in neurologically asymptomatic adults with SCA vs healthy control individuals. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Cross-sectional study comparing neuropsychological function and neuroimaging findings in neurologically asymptomatic adults with SCA and controls from 12 SCA centers, conducted between December 2004 and May 2008. Participants were patients with SCA (hemoglobin [Hb] SS and hemoglobin level < or = 10 mg/dL) aged 19 to 55 years and of African descent (n = 149) or community controls (Hb AA and normal hemoglobin level) (n = 47). Participants were stratified on age, sex, and education. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was nonverbal function assessed by the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale, third edition (WAIS-III) Performance IQ Index. Secondary exploratory outcomes included performance on neurocognitive tests of executive function, memory, attention, and language and magnetic resonance imaging measurement of total intracranial and hippocampal volume, cortical gray and white matter, and lacunae. RESULTS: The mean WAIS-III Performance IQ score of patients with SCA was significantly lower than that of controls (adjusted mean, 86.69 for patients with SCA vs 95.19 for controls [mean difference, -5.50; 95% confidence interval {CI}, -9.55 to -1.44]; P = .008), with 33% performing more than 1 SD (<85) below the population mean. Among secondary measures, differences were observed in adjusted mean values for global cognitive function (full-scale IQ) (90.47 for patients with SCA vs 95.66 for controls [mean difference, -5.19; 95% CI, -9.24 to -1.13]; P = .01), working memory (90.75 vs 95.25 [mean difference, -4.50; 95% CI, -8.55 to -0.45]; P = .03), processing speed (86.50 vs 97.95 [mean difference, -11.46; 95% CI, -15.51 to -7.40]; P < .001), and measures of executive function. Anemia was associated with poorer neurocognitive function in older patients. No differences in total gray matter or hippocampal volume were observed. Lacunae were more frequent in patients with SCA but not independently related to neurocognitive function. CONCLUSION: Compared with healthy controls, adults with SCA had poorer cognitive performance, which was associated with anemia and age.

UGT1A1 promoter polymorphisms and the development of hyperbilirubinemia and gallbladder disease in children with sickle cell anemia.

Genetic modifiers contribute to phenotypic variability in patients with sickle cell anemia (SCA). The influence of the bilirubin UDP-glucuronosyltransferase (UGT) 1A1 (TA)(n)TAA promoter polymorphism on bilirubin levels and gallbladder disease in SCA was examined using prospectively collected data from the Cooperative Study of Sickle Cell Disease. A total of 324 children with HbSS (median age 6.9 years) had UGT1A1 genotyping; 243 (75%) had common (TA)(6) or (TA)(7) alleles, whereas 81 (25.0%) had variant (TA)(5) or (TA)(8) alleles. The UGT1A1 genotype significantly influenced average bilirubin levels for the common alleles: 6/6 genotype = 2.36 +/- 1.13 mg/dL, 6/7 genotype = 2.90 +/- 1.54 mg/dL, and 7/7 genotype = 4.24 +/- 2.11 mg/dL (P < 0.0001). Thirty-nine percent of children with the 7/7 genotype had documented gallbladder disease, compared with 18.2% with the 6/7 genotype and only 9.9% with the wildtype 6/6 UGT1A1 genotype (P = 0.001). To analyze the (TA)(5) and (TA)(8) variant alleles, three groups were generated, showing increasing bilirubin levels with increasing TA repeats and age. Group 3 (genotypes 6/8, 7/7, and 7/8) had a significantly greater rate of bilirubin change than Groups 1 (genotypes 5/6, 5/7, and 6/6) or 2 (genotype 6/7). These results validate previous smaller studies and confirm that the UGT1A1 promoter polymorphism exerts a powerful influence on bilirubin levels and the development of gallbladder disease in children with SCA. UGT1A1 genotyping should be considered as a screening tool for predicting children most likely to develop gallbladder disease at a young age.