Dysplastic Recurrence After Successful Treatment for Early Barrett's Neoplasia: Development and Validation of a Prediction Model.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The combination of endoscopic resection and radiofrequency ablation is the treatment of choice for eradication of Barrett's esophagus (BE) with dysplasia and/or early cancer. Currently, there are no evidence-based recommendations on how to survey patients after successful treatment, and most patients undergo frequent follow-up endoscopies. We aimed to develop and externally validate a prediction model for visible dysplastic recurrence, which can be used to personalize surveillance after treatment. METHODS: We collected data from the Dutch Barrett Expert Center Registry, a nationwide registry that captures outcomes from all patients with BE undergoing endoscopic treatment in the Netherlands in a centralized care setting. We used predictors related to demographics, severity of reflux, histologic status at baseline, and treatment characteristics. We built a Fine and Gray survival model with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalization to predict the incidence of visible dysplastic recurrence after initial successful treatment. The model was validated externally in patients with BE treated in Switzerland and Belgium. RESULTS: A total of 1154 patients with complete BE eradication were included for model building. During a mean endoscopic follow-up of 4 years, 38 patients developed recurrent disease (1.0%/person-year). The following characteristics were independently associated with recurrence (strongest to weakest predictor): a new visible lesion during treatment phase, higher number of endoscopic resection treatments, male sex, increasing BE length, high-grade dysplasia or cancer at baseline, and younger age. External validation showed a C-statistic of 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.94) with good calibration. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first externally validated model to predict visible dysplastic recurrence after successful endoscopic eradication treatment of BE with dysplasia or early cancer. On external validation, our model has good discrimination and calibration. This model can help clinicians and patients to determine a personalized follow-up strategy.

High frequency oscillations in the intra-operative ECoG to guide epilepsy surgery ("The HFO Trial"): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Intra-operative electrocorticography, based on interictal spikes and spike patterns, is performed to optimize delineation of the epileptogenic tissue during epilepsy surgery. High frequency oscillations (HFOs, 80-500 Hz) have been identified as more precise biomarkers for epileptogenic tissue. The aim of the trial is to determine prospectively if ioECoG-tailored surgery using HFOs, instead of interictal spikes, is feasible and will lead to an equal or better seizure outcome. METHODS\ DESIGN: We present a single-blinded multi-center randomized controlled trial "The HFO Trial" including patients with refractory focal epilepsy of all ages who undergo surgery with intra-operative electrocorticography. Surgery is tailored by HFOs (arm 1) or interictal spikes (arm 2) in the intra-operative electrocorticography. Primary outcome is post-operative outcome after 1 year, dichotomized in seizure freedom (Engel 1A and 1B) versus seizure recurrence (Engel 1C-4). Secondary outcome measures are the volume of resected tissue, neurologic deficits, surgical duration and complications, cognition and quality of life. The trial has a non-inferiority design to test feasibility and at least equal performance in terms of surgical outcome. We aim to include 78 patients within 3 years including 1 year follow-up. Results are expected in 2018. DISCUSSION: This trial provides a transition from observational research towards clinical interventions using HFOs. We address methodological difficulties in designing this trial. We expect that the use of HFOs as a biomarker for tailoring will increase the success rate of epilepsy surgery while reducing resection volume. This may reduce neurological deficits and yield a better quality of life. Future technical developments, such as validated automatic online HFO identification, could, together with the attained clinical knowledge, lead to a new objective tailoring approach in epilepsy surgery. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered at the US National Institutes of Health (ClinicalTrials.gov) #NCT02207673 (31 July 2014) and the Central Committee on Research Involving Human Subjects, The Netherlands #NL44257.041.13 (18 March 2014).

Prediction of an excessive response in in vitro fertilization from patient characteristics and ovarian reserve tests and comparison in subgroups: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether ovarian reserve tests (ORTs) add prognostic value to patient characteristics, such as female age, in the prediction of excessive response to ovarian hyperstimulation in patients undergoing IVF, and whether their performance differs across clinical subgroups. DESIGN: Authors of studies reporting on basal FSH, antimüllerian hormone (AMH), or antral follicle count (AFC) in relation to ovarian response to ovarian hyperstimulation were invited to share original data. Random intercept logistic regression models were used to estimate added value of ORTs on patient characteristics, while accounting for between-study heterogeneity. Receiver operating characteristic regression analyses were performed to study the effect of patient characteristics on ORT accuracy. SETTING: In vitro fertilization clinics. PATIENT(S): A total of 4,786 women for the main analysis, with a subgroup of 1,023 women with information on all three ORTs. INTERVENTION(S): None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Excessive response prediction. RESULT(S): We included 57 studies reporting on 32 databases. Female age had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.61 for excessive response prediction. Antral follicle count and AMH significantly added prognostic value to this. A model with female age, AFC, and AMH had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85. The combination of AMH and AFC, without age, had similar accuracy. Subgroup analysis indicated that FSH performed significantly worse in predicting excessive response in higher age groups, AFC did significantly better, and AMH performed the same. CONCLUSION(S): We demonstrate that AFC and AMH add value to female age in the prediction of excessive response and that, for AFC and FSH, the discriminatory performance is affected by female age.

Assessment of androgen concentration in women: liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry and extraction RIA show comparable results.

OBJECTIVE: The measurement of serum testosterone in women is challenging due to lack of trueness, precision, and sensitivity of various available testosterone assays. Accurate assessment of testosterone in women is crucial especially in conditions associated with alleged over- or under-production of testosterone, such as in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) or primary ovarian insufficiency (POI). The aim of this study was to measure and compare androgen concentrations in women with PCOS, POI, and female controls and to evaluate the performance of extraction RIA and liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) in these women. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. METHODS: Carefully phenotyped women with POI (n=208) or PCOS (n=200) and 45 healthy, regularly cyclic female controls were included. Method comparison analyses were performed for total testosterone, androstenedione (AD), and DHEA, as measured by LC-MS/MS and extraction RIA. RESULTS: All androgen levels were significantly elevated in women with PCOS compared with POI patients (P<0.05) and controls (P<0.05). Women with POI presented with similar androgen concentrations as controls, except for AD. Compared with measurements by extraction RIA, testosterone, DHEA, and AD concentrations measured by LC-MS/MS were systematically lower. However, using extraction RIA and LC-MS/MS, testosterone, DHEA, and AD measurements were shown to have good agreement as assessed by Bland-Altman analysis and intraclass correlation coefficient: 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.94-0.91), 0.83 (0.79-0.86), and 0.96 (0.95-0.97) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: LC-MS/MS, compared with a labor-intensive extraction RIA, shows good precision, sensitivity, and high accuracy for measuring female testosterone, DHEA, and AD concentrations under various clinical conditions. LC-MS/MS, therefore, represents a convenient and reliable assay for both clinical and research purposes, where androgen measurement in women is required.