Infectivity of Plasmodium parasites to Aedes aegypti and Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes maintained on blood-free meals of SkitoSnack.

BACKGROUND: Aedes and Anopheles mosquitoes are responsible for tremendous global health burdens from their transmission of pathogens causing malaria, lymphatic filariasis, dengue, and yellow fever. Innovative vector control strategies will help to reduce the prevalence of these diseases. Mass rearing of mosquitoes for research and support of these strategies presently depends on meals of vertebrate blood, which is subject to acquisition, handling, and storage issues. Various blood-free replacements have been formulated for these mosquitoes, but none of these replacements are in wide use, and little is known about their potential impact on competence of the mosquitoes for Plasmodium infection. METHODS: Colonies of Aedes aegypti and Anopheles stephensi were continuously maintained on a blood-free replacement (SkitoSnack; SS) or bovine blood (BB) and monitored for engorgement and hatch rates. Infections of Ae. aegypti and An. stephensi were assessed with Plasmodium gallinaceum and P. falciparum, respectively. RESULTS: Replicate colonies of mosquitoes were maintained on BB or SS for 10 generations of Ae. aegypti and more than 63 generations of An. stephensi. The odds of engorgement by SS- relative to BB-maintained mosquitoes were higher for both Ae. aegypti (OR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.3-5.2) and An. stephensi (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.4-5.5), while lower odds of hatching were found for eggs from the SS-maintained mosquitoes of both species (Ae. aegypti OR = 0.40, 95% CI 0.26-0.62; An. stephensi OR = 0.59, 95% CI 0.36-0.96). Oocyst counts were similar for P. gallinaceum infections of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes maintained on SS or BB (mean ratio = [mean on SS]/[mean on BB] = 1.11, 95% CI 0.85-1.49). Similar oocyst counts were also observed from the P. falciparum infections of SS- or BB-maintained An. stephensi (mean ratio = 0.76, 95% CI 0.44-1.37). The average counts of sporozoites/mosquito showed no evidence of reductions in the SS-maintained relative to BB-maintained mosquitoes of both species. CONCLUSIONS: Aedes aegypti and An. stephensi can be reliably maintained on SS over multiple generations and are as competent for Plasmodium infection as mosquitoes maintained on BB. Use of SS alleviates the need to acquire and preserve blood for mosquito husbandry and may support new initiatives in fundamental and applied research, including novel manipulations of midgut microbiota and factors important to the mosquito life cycle and pathogen susceptibility.

Visceral Leishmaniasis-Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Coinfected Patients Are Highly Infectious to Sandflies in an Endemic Area in India.

In an area endemic with Indian visceral leishmaniasis (VL), we performed direct xenodiagnosis to evaluate the transmission of Leishmania donovani from patients with VL-human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) coinfection to the vector sandflies, Phlebotomus argentipes. Fourteen patients with confirmed VL-HIV coinfection, with a median parasitemia of 42 205 parasite genome/mL of blood, were exposed to 732 laboratory-reared pathogen-free female P argentipes sandflies on their lower arms and legs. Microscopy revealed that 16.66% (122/732) of blood-fed flies were xenodiagnosis positive. Notably, 93% (13/14) of the VL-HIV group infected the flies, as confirmed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction and/or microscopy, and were 3 times more infectious than those who had VL without HIV.

Causal interpretation of the hazard ratio in randomized clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Although the hazard ratio has no straightforward causal interpretation, clinical trialists commonly use it as a measure of treatment effect. METHODS: We review the definition and examples of causal estimands. We discuss the causal interpretation of the hazard ratio from a two-arm randomized clinical trial, and the implications of proportional hazards assumptions in the context of potential outcomes. We illustrate the application of these concepts in a synthetic model and in a model of the time-varying effects of COVID-19 vaccination. RESULTS: We define causal estimands as having either an individual-level or population-level interpretation. Difference-in-expectation estimands are both individual-level and population-level estimands, whereas without strong untestable assumptions the causal rate ratio and hazard ratio have only population-level interpretations. We caution users against making an incorrect individual-level interpretation, emphasizing that in general a hazard ratio does not on average change each individual's hazard by a factor. We discuss a potentially valid interpretation of the constant hazard ratio as a population-level causal effect under the proportional hazards assumption. CONCLUSION: We conclude that the population-level hazard ratio remains a useful estimand, but one must interpret it with appropriate attention to the underlying causal model. This is especially important for interpreting hazard ratios over time.

Durability of Protection Against COVID-19 Through the Delta Surge for the NVX-CoV2373 Vaccine.

BACKGROUND: Protein-based vaccines for COVID-19 provide a traditional vaccine platform with long-lasting protection for non-SARS-CoV-2 pathogens and may complement messenger RNA vaccines as a booster dose. While NVX-CoV2373 showed substantial early efficacy, the durability of protection has not been delineated. METHODS: The PREVENT-19 vaccine trial employed a blinded crossover design; the original placebo arm received NVX-CoV2373 after efficacy was established. Using novel statistical methods that integrate surveillance data of circulating strains with post-crossover cases, we estimated placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy and durability of NVX-CoV2373 against both pre-Delta and Delta strains of SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: Vaccine efficacy against pre-Delta strains of COVID-19 was 89% (95% CI: 75%, 95%) and 87% (72%, 94%) at 0 and 90 days after 2 doses of NVX-CoV2373, respectively, with no evidence of waning (p=0.93). Vaccine efficacy against the Delta strain was 88% (71%, 95%), 82% (56%, 92%), and 77% (44%, 90%) at 40, 120, and 180 days, respectively, with evidence of waning (p<0.01). In sensitivity analyses, the estimated Delta vaccine efficacy at 120 days ranged from 66% (15%, 86%) to 89% (74%, 95%) per various assumptions of the surveillance data. CONCLUSION: NVX-CoV2373 has high initial efficacy against pre-Delta and Delta strains of COVID-19 with little evidence of waning for pre-Delta strains through 90 days and moderate waning against Delta strains over 180 days.

DON in pediatric cerebral malaria, a phase I/IIA dose-escalation safety study: study protocol for a clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Despite treatment with highly effective antimalarial drugs, malaria annually claims the lives of over half a million children under 5-years of age in sub-Saharan Africa. Cerebral malaria (CM), defined as Plasmodium falciparum infection with coma, is the severe malaria syndrome with the highest mortality. Studies in the CM mouse model suggest that a T cell-mediated response underlies CM pathology, opening a new target for therapy in humans. This trial aims to establish the preliminary safety of one such novel therapy, the glutamine antagonist 6-diazo-5-oxo-L-norleucine (DON). METHODS: In this phase I/IIa dose-escalation clinical trial, a single dose of intravenous (IV) DON is administered to three participants groups-healthy adults and adults with uncomplicated malaria, then pediatric participants with CM-to primarily assess safety. The secondary objective of this trial is to assess pharmacokinetics of DON over a range of doses. The open-label adult portion of the trial enrolls 40 healthy adults concurrently with 40 adults with uncomplicated malaria. Cohorts of 10 participants receive a single IV dose of DON with doses escalating between cohorts from 0.1 mg/kg, 1.0 mg/kg, 5.0 mg/kg, to 10 mg/kg. Following subsequent safety review, a randomized, double-blind, and placebo-controlled pediatric study enrolls 72 participants aged 6 months to 14 years with CM. The pediatric portion of the study minimally spans three malaria seasons including a planned interim analysis after 50% of pediatric enrollments. The first half of pediatric participants receive DON 0.1 mg/kg, 1.0 mg/kg, or placebo. Dosing for the second half of pediatric participants is informed by the safety and preliminary efficacy results of those previously enrolled. The pediatric portion of the study has an exploratory outcome evaluating the preliminary efficacy of DON. Efficacy is assessed by diagnostics predictive of CM outcome: electroencephalography (EEG), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and transcranial doppler (TCD), measured before and after DON administration. All participants with malaria receive standard of care antimalarials in accordance with local guidelines, regardless of study drug dose group. DISCUSSION: This preliminary safety and efficacy study evaluates DON, a candidate adjunctive therapy for pediatric CM. If results support DON preliminary safety and efficacy, follow-up phase II and III clinical trials will be indicated. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov on 28 July 2022 (NCT05478720).

Mepolizumab incompletely suppresses clinical flares in a pilot study of episodic angioedema with eosinophilia.

BACKGROUND: Episodic angioedema with eosinophilia (EAE) is a rare multilineage cyclic syndrome of unknown etiology characterized by episodes of angioedema, myalgia, fatigue, and fever that occur every 3 to 8 weeks and resolve between episodes without therapy. Cyclic elevations in serum IL-5 levels and neutrophils precede the increase in absolute eosinophil count (AEC) in most patients. OBJECTIVE: We sought to assess the role of IL-5-driven eosinophilia in the clinical manifestations of EAE. METHODS: An open-label pilot study of mepolizumab (700 mg intravenously monthly for 3 months followed by sequential dose reduction to the Food and Drug Administration-approved dose of 300 mg subcutaneously monthly) was conducted. The primary end point was reduction in the number and severity of clinical symptoms as assessed by patient-reported symptom questionnaires. Secondary end points were greater than or equal to 75% reduction in peak AEC after 1 dose of mepolizumab and sustained reduction in AEC after 3 doses of mepolizumab. Exploratory end points included effects of mepolizumab treatment on other cell lineages (numbers and surface marker expression), levels of plasma mediators, and biomarkers of eosinophil activation. RESULTS: Four female and 1 male (median age, 45 years) participants with EAE were enrolled. None of the 5 participants experienced a reduction in the number of symptomatic flares on mepolizumab therapy, and 1 participant withdrew before study completion because of lack of improvement. Peak AEC was reduced by 75% or more in 3 participants after the first dose of mepolizumab and in 4 participants after 3 doses. CONCLUSIONS: In a small cohort of participants with EAE, mepolizumab was unsuccessful in substantially reducing clinical symptoms despite reduction in AEC.

Association of alpha globin gene copy number with exhaled nitric oxide in a cross-sectional study of healthy Black adults.

INTRODUCTION: The genetic determinants of fractional exhalation of nitric oxide (FeNO), a marker of lung inflammation, are understudied in Black individuals. Alpha globin (HBA) restricts nitric oxide signalling in arterial endothelial cells via interactions with nitric oxide synthase; however, its role in regulating the release of NO from respiratory epithelium is less well understood. We hypothesised that an HBA gene deletion, common among Black individuals, would be associated with higher FeNO. METHODS: Healthy Black adults were enrolled at four study sites in North Carolina from 2005 to 2008. FeNO was measured in triplicate using a nitric oxide analyzer. The -3.7 kb HBA gene deletion was genotyped using droplet digital PCR on genomic DNA. The association of FeNO with HBA copy number was evaluated using multivariable linear regression employing a linear effect of HBA copy number and adjusting for age, sex and serum immunoglobulin-E levels. Post-hoc analysis employing a recessive mode of inheritance was performed. RESULTS: 895 individuals were in enrolled in the study and 720 consented for future genetic research; 643 had complete data and were included in this analysis. Median (25th, 75th) FeNO was 20 (13, 31) ppb. HBA genotypes were: 30 (4.7%) -a/-a, 197 (30.6%) -a/aa, 405 (63%) aa/aa and 8 (1.2%) aa/aaa. Subjects were 35% male with median age 20 (19, 22) years. Multivariable linear regression analysis revealed no association between FeNO and HBA copy number (ß=-0.005 (95% CI -0.042 to 0.033), p=0.81). In the post-hoc sensitivity analysis, homozygosity for the HBA gene deletion was associated with higher FeNO (ß=0.107 (95% CI 0.003 to 0.212); p=0.045). CONCLUSION: We found no association between HBA copy number and FeNO using a prespecified additive genetic model. However, a post hoc recessive genetic model found FeNO to be higher among subjects homozygous for the HBA deletion.

A phase III randomized crossover trial of plerixafor versus G-CSF for treatment of WHIM syndrome.

BACKGROUNDWarts, hypogammaglobulinemia, infections, and myelokathexis (WHIM) syndrome is a primary immunodeficiency disorder caused by heterozygous gain-of-function CXCR4 mutations. Myelokathexis is a kind of neutropenia caused by neutrophil retention in bone marrow and in WHIM syndrome is associated with lymphopenia and monocytopenia. The CXCR4 antagonist plerixafor mobilizes leukocytes to the blood; however, its safety and efficacy in WHIM syndrome are undefined.METHODSIn this investigator-initiated, single-center, quadruple-masked phase III crossover trial, we compared the total infection severity score (TISS) as the primary endpoint in an intent-to-treat manner in 19 patients with WHIM who each received 12 months treatment with plerixafor and 12 months treatment with granulocyte CSF (G-CSF, the standard of care for severe congenital neutropenia). The treatment order was randomized for each patient.RESULTSPlerixafor was nonsuperior to G-CSF for TISS (P = 0.54). In exploratory endpoints, plerixafor was noninferior to G-CSF for maintaining neutrophil counts of more than 500 cells/µL (P = 0.023) and was superior to G-CSF for maintaining lymphocyte counts above 1,000 cells/µL (P < 0.0001). Complete regression of a subset of large wart areas occurred on plerixafor in 5 of 7 patients with major wart burdens at baseline. Transient rash occurred on plerixafor, and bone pain was more common on G-CSF. There were no significant differences in drug preference or quality of life or the incidence of drug failure or serious adverse events.CONCLUSIONPlerixafor was not superior to G-CSF in patients with WHIM for TISS, the primary endpoint. Together with wart regression and hematologic improvement, the infection severity results support continued study of plerixafor as a potential treatment for WHIM syndrome.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicaltrials.gov NCT02231879.FUNDINGThis study was funded by the Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Examining protective effects of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies after vaccination or monoclonal antibody administration.

While new vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 are authorized based on neutralizing antibody (nAb) titer against emerging variants of concern, an analogous pathway does not exist for preventative monoclonal antibodies. In this work, nAb titers were assessed as correlates of protection against COVID-19 in the casirivimab + imdevimab monoclonal antibody (mAb) prevention trial (ClinicalTrials.gov #NCT4452318) and in the mRNA-1273 vaccine trial (ClinicalTrials.gov #NCT04470427). In the mAb trial, protective efficacy of 92% (95% confidence interval (CI): 84%, 98%) is associated with a nAb titer of 1000 IU50/ml, with lower efficacy at lower nAb titers. In the vaccine trial, protective efficacies of 93% [95% CI: 91%, 95%] and 97% (95% CI: 95%, 98%) are associated with nAb titers of 100 and 1000 IU50/ml, respectively. These data quantitate a nAb titer correlate of protection for mAbs benchmarked alongside vaccine induced nAb titers and support nAb titer as a surrogate endpoint for authorizing new mAbs.

Assessment of precision in growth inhibition assay (GIA) using human anti-PfRH5 antibodies.

BACKGROUND: For blood-stage malaria vaccine development, the in vitro growth inhibition assay (GIA) has been widely used to evaluate functionality of vaccine-induced antibodies (Ab), and Plasmodium falciparum reticulocyte-binding protein homolog 5 (RH5) is a leading blood-stage antigen. However, precision, also called "error of assay (EoA)", in GIA readouts and the source of EoA has not been evaluated systematically. METHODS: In the Main GIA experiment, 4 different cultures of P. falciparum 3D7 parasites were prepared with red blood cells (RBC) collected from 4 different donors. For each culture, 7 different anti-RH5 Ab (either monoclonal or polyclonal Ab) were tested by GIA at two concentrations on three different days (168 data points). To evaluate sources of EoA in % inhibition in GIA (%GIA), a linear model fit was conducted including donor (source of RBC) and day of GIA as independent variables. In addition, 180 human anti-RH5 polyclonal Ab were tested in a Clinical GIA experiment, where each Ab was tested at multiple concentrations in at least 3 independent GIAs using different RBCs (5,093 data points). The standard deviation (sd) in %GIA and in GIA50 (Ab concentration that gave 50%GIA) readouts, and impact of repeat assays on 95% confidence interval (95%CI) of these readouts was estimated. RESULTS: The Main GIA experiment revealed that the RBC donor effect was much larger than the day effect, and an obvious donor effect was also observed in the Clinical GIA experiment. Both %GIA and log-transformed GIA50 data reasonably fit a constant sd model, and sd of %GIA and log-transformed GIA50 measurements were calculated as 7.54 and 0.206, respectively. Taking the average of three repeat assays (using three different RBCs) reduces the 95%CI width in %GIA or in GIA50 measurements by ~ half compared to a single assay. CONCLUSIONS: The RBC donor effect (donor-to-donor variance on the same day) in GIA was much bigger than the day effect (day-to-day variance using the same donor's RBC) at least for the RH5 Ab evaluated in this study; thus, future GIA studies should consider the donor effect. In addition, the 95%CI for %GIA and GIA50 shown here help when comparing GIA results from different samples/groups/studies; therefore, this study supports future malaria blood-stage vaccine development.

Confidence intervals for prevalence estimates from complex surveys with imperfect assays.

There are established methods for estimating disease prevalence with associated confidence intervals for complex surveys with perfect assays, or simple random sample surveys with imperfect assays. We develop and study methods for the complicated case of complex surveys with imperfect assays. The new methods use the melding method to combine gamma intervals for directly standardized rates and established adjustments for imperfect assays by estimating sensitivity and specificity. One of the new methods appears to have at least nominal coverage in all simulated scenarios. We compare our new methods to established methods in special cases (complex surveys with perfect assays or simple surveys with imperfect assays). In some simulations, our methods appear to guarantee coverage, while competing methods have much lower than nominal coverage, especially when overall prevalence is very low. In other settings, our methods are shown to have higher than nominal coverage. We apply our method to a seroprevalence survey of SARS-CoV-2 in undiagnosed adults in the United States between May and July 2020.

Vaccine efficacy at a point in time.

Vaccine trials are generally designed to assess efficacy on clinical disease. The vaccine effect on infection, while important both as a proxy for transmission and to describe a vaccine's entire effects, requires frequent (e.g., twice a week) longitudinal sampling to capture all infections. Such sampling may not always be feasible. A logistically easy approach is to collect a sample to test for infection at a regularly scheduled visit. Such point or cross-sectional sampling does not permit estimation of classic vaccine efficacy on infection, as long duration infections are sampled with higher probability. Building on work by Rinta-Kokko and others (2009) and Lipsitch and Kahn (2021), we evaluate proxies of the vaccine effect on transmission at a point in time; the vaccine efficacy on prevalent infection and on prevalent viral load, VE$_{\rm PI}$ and VE$_{\rm PVL}$, respectively. Longer infections with higher viral loads should have more transmission potential and prevalent vaccine efficacy naturally captures this aspect. We demonstrate how these parameters obtain from an underlying proportional hazards model for infection and allow for waning efficacy on infection, duration, and viral load. We estimate these parameters based on regression models with either repeated cross-sectional sampling or frequent longitudinal sampling. We evaluate the methods by simulation and analyze a phase III vaccine trial with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) cross-sectional sampling for subclinical infection.

Urine eosinophil-derived neurotoxin: A potential marker of activity in select eosinophilic disorders.

BACKGROUND: Biomarkers of eosinophilic disease activity, especially in the context of novel therapies that reduce blood eosinophil counts, are an unmet need. Absolute eosinophil count (AEC) does not accurately reflect tissue eosinophilia or eosinophil activation. Therefore, the aims of this study were to compare the reliability of plasma and urine eosinophil major basic protein 1, eosinophil cationic protein, eosinophil-derived neurotoxin (EDN), and eosinophil peroxidase measurement and to evaluate the usefulness of eosinophil granule protein (EGP) measurement for the assessment of disease activity in patients with eosinophil-associated diseases treated with mepolizumab, benralizumab, or dexpramipexole. METHODS: Eosinophil granule protein concentrations were measured in serum, plasma, and urine from healthy volunteers and patients with hypereosinophilic syndrome (HES), eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis (EGPA), and eosinophilic asthma using a multiplex assay. RESULTS: Urine EGP concentrations remained stable, whereas serum and plasma EGP concentrations increased significantly with delayed processing. Plasma (p) EDN, but not urine (u) EDN, concentration correlated with AEC and negatively correlated with prednisone dose. Both pEDN and uEDN decreased significantly following treatment of HES patients with benralizumab and EGPA patients with mepolizumab. uEDN appeared to increase with clinical relapse in both patient groups. CONCLUSIONS: Measurement of EGP in urine is noninvasive and unaffected by cellular lysis. Although plasma and urine EDN concentrations showed a similar pattern following benralizumab and mepolizumab treatment, the lack of correlation between AEC or prednisone dose and uEDN concentrations suggests that measurement of uEDN may provide a potential biomarker of disease activity in patients with HES and EGPA.

An International, Retrospective Study of Off-Label Biologic Use in the Treatment of Hypereosinophilic Syndromes.

BACKGROUND: Treatment of hypereosinophilic syndrome (HES) often requires the use of immunomodulators with substantial side effect profiles. The emergence of biologics offers an alternative treatment modality. OBJECTIVE: To examine real-world practice data to describe the safety and consequences of various biologics suspected to directly or indirectly affect eosinophilic inflammation for the treatment of HES. METHODS: Retrospective data from 13 centers were collected via an online Research Electronic Data Capture repository. Inclusion criteria included (1) peripheral eosinophil count of 1,500/mm3 or greater without a secondary cause; (2) clinical manifestations attributable to the eosinophilia; and (3) having received mepolizumab (anti-IL-5), benralizumab (afucosylated anti-IL-5 receptor α), omalizumab (anti-IgE), alemtuzumab (anti-CD52), dupilumab (anti-IL-4 receptor α), or reslizumab (anti-IL-5) outside a placebo-controlled clinical trial. RESULTS: Of the 151 courses of biologics prescribed for 121 patients with HES, 59% resulted in improved HES symptoms and 77% enabled tapering of other HES medications. Overall, 105 patients were receiving daily systemic glucocorticoids at the time of a biologic initiation and were able to reduce the glucocorticoid dose by a median reduction of 10 mg of daily prednisone equivalents. Biologics were generally safe and well-tolerated other than infusion reactions with alemtuzumab. Thirteen of 24 patients had clinical improvement after switching biologics and nine patients responded to increasing the dose of mepolizumab after a lack of response to a lower dose. CONCLUSIONS: Biologics may offer a safer treatment alternative to existing therapies for HES, although the optimal dosing and choice for each subtype of HES remain to be determined. Limitations of this study include its retrospective nature and intersite differences in data collection and availability of each biologic.

Development of Inapparent Dengue Associated With Increased Antibody Levels to Aedes aegypti Salivary Proteins: A Longitudinal Dengue Cohort in Cambodia.

BACKGROUND: We established the first prospective cohort to understand how infection with dengue virus is influenced by vector-specific determinants such as humoral immunity to Aedes aegypti salivary proteins. METHODS: Children aged 2-9 years were enrolled in the PAGODAS (Pediatric Assessment Group of Dengue and Aedes Saliva) cohort with informed consent by their guardians. Children were followed semi-annually for antibodies to dengue and to proteins in Ae. aegypti salivary gland homogenate using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays and dengue-specific neutralization titers. Children presented with fever at any time for dengue testing. RESULTS: From 13 July to 30 August 2018, we enrolled 771 children. At baseline, 22% (173/770) had evidence of neutralizing antibodies to 1 or more dengue serotypes. By April 2020, 51 children had symptomatic dengue while 148 dengue-naive children had inapparent dengue defined by neutralization assays. In a multivariate model, individuals with higher antibodies to Ae. aegypti salivary proteins were 1.5 times more likely to have dengue infection (hazard ratio [HR], 1.47 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.05-2.06]; P = .02), particularly individuals with inapparent dengue (HR, 1.64 [95% CI, 1.12-2.41]; P = .01). CONCLUSIONS: High levels of seropositivity to Ae. aegypti salivary proteins are associated with future development of dengue infection, primarily inapparent, in dengue-naive Cambodian children. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03534245.

Natural history of disease in cynomolgus monkeys exposed to Ebola virus Kikwit strain demonstrates the reliability of this non-human primate model for Ebola virus disease.

Filoviruses (Family Filoviridae genera Ebolavirus and Marburgvirus) are negative-stranded RNA viruses that cause severe health effects in humans and non-human primates, including death. Except in outbreak settings, vaccines and other medical countermeasures against Ebola virus (EBOV) will require testing under the FDA Animal Rule. Multiple vaccine candidates have been evaluated using cynomolgus monkeys (CM) exposed to EBOV Kikwit strain. To the best of our knowledge, however, animal model development data supporting the use of CM in vaccine research have not been submitted to the FDA. This study describes a large CM database (122 CM, 62 female and 60 male, age 2 to 9 years) and demonstrates the consistency of the CM model through time to death models and descriptive statistics. CMs were exposed to EBOV doses of 0.1 to 100,000 PFU in 33 studies conducted at three Animal Biosafety Level 4 facilities, by three exposure routes. Time to death was modeled using Cox proportional hazards models with a frailty term that incorporated study-to-study variability. Despite significant differences attributed to exposure variables, all CMs exposed to the 100 to 1,000 pfu doses commonly used in vaccine studies died or met euthanasia criteria within 21 days of exposure, median 7 days, 93% between 5 and 12 days of exposure. Moderate clinical signs were observed 4 to 5 days after exposure and preceded death or euthanasia by approximately one day. Viremia was detected within a few days of infection. Hematology indices were indicative of viremia and the propensity for hemorrhage with progression of Ebola viremia. Changes associated with coagulation parameters and platelets were consistent with coagulation disruption. Changes in leukocyte profiles were indicative of an acute inflammatory response. Increased liver enzymes were observed shortly after exposure. Taken together, these factors suggest that the cynomolgus monkey is a reliable animal model for human disease.

Undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and delayed implementation of diagnostics have led to poorly defined viral prevalence rates in the United States and elsewhere. To address this, we analyzed seropositivity in 9089 adults in the United States who had not been diagnosed previously with COVID-19. Individuals with characteristics that reflected the U.S. population (n = 27,716) were selected by quota sampling from 462,949 volunteers. Enrolled participants (n = 11,382) provided medical, geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic information and dried blood samples. Survey questions coincident with the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey, a large probability-based national survey, were used to adjust for selection bias. Most blood samples (88.7%) were collected between 10 May and 31 July 2020 and were processed using ELISA to measure seropositivity (IgG and IgM antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and the spike protein receptor binding domain). The overall weighted undiagnosed seropositivity estimate was 4.6% (95% CI, 2.6 to 6.5%), with race, age, sex, ethnicity, and urban/rural subgroup estimates ranging from 1.1% to 14.2%. The highest seropositivity estimates were in African American participants; younger, female, and Hispanic participants; and residents of urban centers. These data indicate that there were 4.8 undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infections for every diagnosed case of COVID-19, and an estimated 16.8 million infections were undiagnosed by mid-July 2020 in the United States.

A Deferred-Vaccination Design to Assess Durability of COVID-19 Vaccine Effect After the Placebo Group Is Vaccinated.

Multiple candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials, and several have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. At some point after demonstration of substantial efficacy, placebo recipients should be offered the efficacious vaccine from their trial, which will occur before longer-term efficacy and safety are known. The absence of a placebo group could compromise assessment of longer-term vaccine effects. However, by continuing follow-up after vaccination of the placebo group, this study shows that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be mathematically derived by assuming that the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the original placebo recipients after their vaccination. Although this derivation provides less precise estimates than would be obtained by a standard trial where the placebo group remains unvaccinated, this proposed approach allows estimation of longer-term effect, including durability of vaccine efficacy and whether the vaccine eventually becomes harmful for some. Deferred vaccination, if done open-label, may lead to riskier behavior in the unblinded original vaccine group, confounding estimates of long-term vaccine efficacy. Hence, deferred vaccination via blinded crossover, where the vaccine group receives placebo and vice versa, would be the preferred way to assess vaccine durability and potential delayed harm. Deferred vaccination allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain them on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunologic and clinical effectiveness over time.