Protocol and rationale for a randomized controlled SGLT2 inhibitor trial in pediatric and young adult populations with chronic kidney disease: DOUBLE PRO-TECT Alport.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Clinical trials have demonstrated positive cardiovascular and kidney outcomes of sodium-glucose-co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors in adult patients with diabetic and other chronic kidney diseases (CKD). Whether benefits extend to children, teenagers, and young adults with early-stage CKD is unknown. For this reason, the DOUBLE PRO-TECT Alport trial (NCT05944016) will study the progression of albuminuria in young patients with Alport syndrome (AS), the most common hereditary CKD, to assess the safety and efficacy of the SGLT2-inhibitor dapagliflozin. Patients living with AS and chronically elevated albuminuria have a high risk of kidney failure before the age of 50 years. METHODS AND RATIONALE: DOUBLE PRO-TECT Alport is a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial (RCT). Participants (aged 10 to 39 years) must have a diagnosis of AS by genetic testing or kidney biopsy, be on a stable (> 3 months) maximum tolerated dose of a renin-angiotensin-system-inhibitor (RASi) and must have a Urinary Albumin to Creatinine Ratio (UACR) of >300 mg/g (pediatric) or >500 mg/g (adult).Eligible participants will be randomly assigned at a 2:1 ratio to 48 weeks of treatment with dapaglifozin 10 mg/day -to- matched placebo. Most participants are expected to be children with a normal glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). In addition to safety, the primary (change in UACR from baseline to Week 48) and key secondary (eGFR change from baseline to Week 52) efficacy outcomes will be analyzed with a mixed model repeated measures approach. Efficacy analyses will be performed primarily in the full analysis set according to the intention-to-treat principle. A sensitivity analysis will be performed using reference-based multiple imputation. CONCLUSION: DOUBLE PRO-TECT Alport will assess whether SGLT2-inhibitors can safely reduce change from baseline in UACR as a marker for progression of CKD in young patients living with AS.

On the Application of Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) in Late-Stage Clinical Development.

Whereas AI/ML methods were considered experimental tools in clinical development for some time, nowadays they are widely available. However, stakeholders in the health care industry still need to answer the question which role these methods can realistically play and what standards should be adhered to. Clinical research in late-stage clinical development has particular requirements in terms of robustness, transparency and traceability. These standards should also be adhered to when applying AI/ML methods. Currently there is some formal regulatory guidance available, but this is more directed at settings where a device or medical software is investigated. Here we focus on the application of AI/ML methods in late-stage clinical drug development, i.e. in a setting where currently less guidance is available. This is done via first summarizing available regulatory guidance and work done by regulatory statisticians followed by the presentation of an industry application where the influence of extensive sets of baseline characteristics on the treatment effect can be investigated by applying ML-methods in a standardized manner with intuitive graphical displays leveraging explainable AI methods. The paper aims at stimulating discussions on the role such analyses can play in general rather than advocating for a particular AI/ML-method or indication where such methods could be meaningful.

Ferric carboxymaltose and exercise capacity in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and iron deficiency: the FAIR-HFpEF trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Evidence is lacking that correcting iron deficiency (ID) has clinically important benefits for patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). METHODS: FAIR-HFpEF was a multicentre, randomized, double-blind trial designed to compare intravenous ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) with placebo (saline) in 200 patients with symptomatic HFpEF and ID (serum ferritin < 100 ng/mL or ferritin 100-299 ng/mL with transferrin saturation < 20%). The primary endpoint was change in 6-min walking test distance (6MWTD) from baseline to week 24. Secondary endpoints included changes in New York Heart Association class, patient global assessment, and health-related quality of life (QoL). RESULTS: The trial was stopped because of slow recruitment after 39 patients had been included (median age 80 years, 62% women). The change in 6MWTD from baseline to week 24 was greater for those assigned to FCM compared to placebo [least square mean difference 49 m, 95% confidence interval (CI) 5-93; P = .029]. Changes in secondary endpoints were not significantly different between groups. The total number of adverse events (76 vs. 114) and serious adverse events (5 vs. 19; rate ratio 0.27, 95% CI 0.07-0.96; P = .043) was lower with FCM than placebo. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with HFpEF and markers of ID, intravenous FCM improved 6MWTD and was associated with fewer serious adverse events. However, the trial lacked sufficient power to identify or refute effects on symptoms or QoL. The potential benefits of intravenous iron in HFpEF with ID should be investigated further in a larger cohort.

Pre-hospital heparin is not associated with infarct vessel patency and mortality in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

BACKGROUND: Pre-hospital heparin administration has been reported to improve prognosis in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). This beneficial effect may be limited to the subgroup of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. METHODS: To assess the impact of pre-hospital heparin loading on TIMI (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction) flow grade and mortality in STEMI patients with OHCA, we analyzed data from 2,566 consecutive patients from two hospitals participating in the prospective Feedback Intervention and Treatment Times in ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction (FITT-STEMI) trial. RESULTS: In 394 participants with OHCA, 272 (69%) received heparin from the emergency medical service (EMS). Collapse witnessed by EMS (odds ratio (OR) = 3.53, 95%-confidence interval (CI) = 1.54-8.09; p = 0.003) and pre-hospital ECG recording (OR = 3.32, 95% CI = 1.06-10.35; p = 0.039) were identified as parameters significantly associated with pre-hospital heparin use. In univariate analysis, in-hospital mortality was lower in the group receiving heparin in the pre-hospital setting (26.8% vs. 42.6%, p = 0.002). However, in a regression model, pre-hospital heparin use was no longer a significant predictor of mortality (OR = 0.992; p = 0.981). Patency of the infarct artery prior to coronary revascularization, as measured by TIMI flow grade, was not associated with pre-hospital administration of heparin in OHCA patients (OR = 0.840; p = 0.724). CONCLUSIONS: In STEMI patients with OHCA, pre-hospital use of heparin is neither associated with improved early patency of the infarct artery nor with a better prognosis. Our results do not support the assumption of a positive effect of heparin administration in the pre-hospital treatment phase in STEMI patients with OHCA. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00794001.

Catheter-based ablation to improve outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: Rationale and design of the CABA-HFPEF-DZHK27 trial.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in heart failure (HF) and negatively impacts outcomes. The role of ablation-based rhythm control in patients with AF and HF with preserved (HFpEF) or mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) is not known. The CABA-HFPEF-DZHK27 (CAtheter-Based Ablation of atrial fibrillation compared to conventional treatment in patients with Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction) trial will determine whether early catheter ablation for AF can prevent adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with HFpEF or HFmrEF. METHODS: CABA-HFPEF-DZHK27 (NCT05508256) is an investigator-initiated, prospective, randomized, open, interventional multicentre strategy trial with blinded outcome assessment. Approximately 1548 patients with paroxysmal or persistent AF diagnosed within 24 months prior to enrolment and HFpEF or HFmrEF will be randomized to early catheter ablation within 4 weeks after randomization or to usual care. All patients receive anticoagulation, rate control, and HF management according to current guideline recommendations. Usual care can include rhythm control in symptomatic patients. Patients will be followed until the end of the trial for the primary outcome, a composite of cardiovascular death, stroke, and total unplanned hospitalizations for HF or acute coronary syndrome. The safety outcome comprises complications of catheter ablation and death. The trial is powered for a rate ratio of 0.75 (two-sided alpha = 0.05, 1-beta = 0.8). CONCLUSION: CABA-HFPEF-DZHK27 will define the role of systematic and early catheter ablation in patients with AF and HFpEF or HFmrEF.

Percutaneous repair of moderate-to-severe or severe functional mitral regurgitation in patients with symptomatic heart failure: Baseline characteristics of patients in the RESHAPE-HF2 trial and comparison to COAPT and MITRA-FR trials.

AIM: The RESHAPE-HF2 trial is designed to assess the efficacy and safety of the MitraClip device system for the treatment of clinically important functional mitral regurgitation (FMR) in patients with heart failure (HF). This report describes the baseline characteristics of patients enrolled in the RESHAPE-HF2 trial compared to those enrolled in the COAPT and MITRA-FR trials. METHODS AND RESULTS: The RESHAPE-HF2 study is an investigator-initiated, prospective, randomized, multicentre trial including patients with symptomatic HF, a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) between 20% and 50% with moderate-to-severe or severe FMR, for whom isolated mitral valve surgery was not recommended. Patients were randomized 1:1 to a strategy of delivering or withholding MitraClip. Of 506 patients randomized, the mean age of the patients was 70 ± 10 years, and 99 of them (20%) were women. The median EuroSCORE II was 5.3 (2.8-9.0) and median plasma N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) was 2745 (1407-5385) pg/ml. Most patients were prescribed beta-blockers (96%), diuretics (96%), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers/angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors (82%) and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (82%). The use of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors was rare (7%). Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) devices had been previously implanted in 29% of patients. Mean LVEF, left ventricular end-diastolic volume and effective regurgitant orifice area (EROA) were 31 ± 8%, 211 ± 76 ml and 0.25 ± 0.08 cm2, respectively, whereas 44% of patients had mitral regurgitation severity of grade 4+. Compared to patients enrolled in COAPT and MITRA-FR, those enrolled in RESHAPE-HF2 were less likely to have mitral regurgitation grade 4+ and, on average, HAD lower EROA, and plasma NT-proBNP and higher estimated glomerular filtration rate, but otherwise had similar age, comorbidities, CRT therapy and LVEF. CONCLUSION: Patients enrolled in RESHAPE-HF2 represent a third distinct population where MitraClip was tested in, that is one mainly comprising of patients with moderate-to-severe FMR instead of only severe FMR, as enrolled in the COAPT and MITRA-FR trials. The results of RESHAPE-HF2 will provide crucial insights regarding broader application of the transcatheter edge-to-edge repair procedure in clinical practice.

Stress and Multiple Sclerosis - Systematic review and meta-analysis of the association with disease onset, relapse risk and disability progression.

OBJECTIVE: This systematic review and meta-analysis address the evidence on the association of psychological stressors with onset of multiple sclerosis, inflammatory disease activity (relapses or new disease activity on magnetic resonance imaging, MRI) and disability progression. METHODS: PubMed was searched from 1946 to 15 July 2022. Studies and certain stressors were selected when they assessed stressors independent from stress elicited by the disease process itself. Risk of bias was assessed by the CASP Case Control Study Checklist and the CASP Cohort Study Checklist. Normal-Normal Hierarchical Model (NNHM) for random-effects meta-analysis was used in the Bayesian framework. RESULTS: 30 studies reporting data from 26 cohorts reporting on 24.781 cases could be identified. Ten studies addressed stressors and MS disease onset showing a weak to modest effect of psychological stressors. A meta-analysis of three studies investigating diagnosed stress disorders and MS risk showed a 1.87-fold (CI 1.061 to 3.429) increased MS risk. Stress and MS relapse risk were addressed in 19 heterogeneous studies. Meta-analyses from two independent cohorts investigating the same military threat of a population showed a threefold increased risk for relapses in association with war (relapse rate: 3.0, CI 1.56 to 5.81). In addition, two studies confirmed an association of stressful life events and MRI activity. Three studies of stressors and disease progression were included indicating some effect on disease progression. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together studies indicate a minor to modest impact of psychological stressors on disease onset, inflammatory activity and progression of MS. Possible case-selection bias and lack of confounder analysis were present in many studies.

Survival analysis for AdVerse events with VarYing follow-up times (SAVVY): summary of findings and assessment of existing guidelines.

BACKGROUND: The SAVVY project aims to improve the analyses of adverse events (AEs) in clinical trials through the use of survival techniques appropriately dealing with varying follow-up times and competing events (CEs). This paper summarizes key features and conclusions from the various SAVVY papers. METHODS: Summarizing several papers reporting theoretical investigations using simulations and an empirical study including randomized clinical trials from several sponsor organizations, biases from ignoring varying follow-up times or CEs are investigated. The bias of commonly used estimators of the absolute (incidence proportion and one minus Kaplan-Meier) and relative (risk and hazard ratio) AE risk is quantified. Furthermore, we provide a cursory assessment of how pertinent guidelines for the analysis of safety data deal with the features of varying follow-up time and CEs. RESULTS: SAVVY finds that for both, avoiding bias and categorization of evidence with respect to treatment effect on AE risk into categories, the choice of the estimator is key and more important than features of the underlying data such as percentage of censoring, CEs, amount of follow-up, or value of the gold-standard. CONCLUSIONS: The choice of the estimator of the cumulative AE probability and the definition of CEs are crucial. Whenever varying follow-up times and/or CEs are present in the assessment of AEs, SAVVY recommends using the Aalen-Johansen estimator (AJE) with an appropriate definition of CEs to quantify AE risk. There is an urgent need to improve pertinent clinical trial reporting guidelines for reporting AEs so that incidence proportions or one minus Kaplan-Meier estimators are finally replaced by the AJE with appropriate definition of CEs.

Lack of Prognostic Value of T-Wave Alternans for Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator Benefit in Primary Prevention.

BACKGROUND: New methods to identify patients who benefit from a primary prophylactic implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) are needed. T-wave alternans (TWA) has been shown to associate with arrhythmogenesis of the heart and sudden cardiac death. We hypothesized that TWA might be associated with benefit from ICD implantation in primary prevention. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the EU-CERT-ICD (European Comparative Effectiveness Research to Assess the Use of Primary Prophylactic Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillators) study, we prospectively enrolled 2327 candidates for primary prophylactic ICD. A 24-hour Holter monitor reading was taken from all recruited patients at enrollment. TWA was assessed from Holter monitoring using the modified moving average method. Study outcomes were all-cause death, appropriate shock, and survival benefit. TWA was assessed both as a contiguous variable and as a dichotomized variable with cutoff points <47 µV and <60 µV. The final cohort included 1734 valid T-wave alternans samples, 1211 patients with ICD, and 523 control patients with conservative treatment, with a mean follow-up time of 2.3 years. TWA ≥60 µV was a predicter for a higher all-cause death in patients with an ICD on the basis of a univariate Cox regression model (hazard ratio, 1.484 [95% CI, 1.024-2.151]; P=0.0374; concordance statistic, 0.51). In multivariable models, TWA was not prognostic of death or appropriate shocks in patients with an ICD. In addition, TWA was not prognostic of death in control patients. In a propensity score-adjusted Cox regression model, TWA was not a predictor of ICD benefit. CONCLUSIONS: T-wave alternans is poorly prognostic in patients with a primary prophylactic ICD. Although it may be prognostic of life-threatening arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in several patient populations, it does not seem to be useful in assessing benefit from ICD therapy in primary prevention among patients with an ejection fraction of ≤35%.

Evaluating palliative care case conferences in primary care for patients with advanced non-malignant chronic conditions: a cluster-randomised controlled trial (KOPAL).

BACKGROUND: Patients with congestive heart failure (CHF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and dementia are underrepresented in specialist palliative home care (SPHC). However, the complexity of their conditions requires collaboration between general practitioners (GPs) and SPHC teams and timely integration into SPHC to effectively meet their needs. OBJECTIVE: To facilitate joint palliative care planning and the timely transfer of patients with advanced chronic non-malignant conditions to SPHC. METHODS: A two-arm, unblinded, cluster-randomised controlled trial. 49 GP practices in northern Germany were randomised using web-based block randomisation. We included patients with advanced CHF, COPD and/or dementia. The KOPAL intervention consisted of a SPHC nurse-patient consultation followed by an interprofessional telephone case conference between SPHC team and GP. The primary outcome was the number of hospital admissions 48 weeks after baseline. Secondary analyses examined the effects on health-related quality of life and self-rated health status, as measured by the EuroQol 5D scale. RESULTS: A total of 172 patients were included in the analyses. 80.4% of GP practices had worked with SHPC before, most of them exclusively for cancer patients. At baseline, patients reported a mean EQ-VAS of 48.4, a mean quality of life index (EQ-5D-5L) of 0.63 and an average of 0.80 hospital admissions in the previous year. The intervention did not significantly reduce hospital admissions (incidence rate ratio = 0.79, 95%CI: [0.49, 1.26], P = 0.31) or the number of days spent in hospital (incidence rate ratio = 0.65, 95%CI: [0.28, 1.49], P = 0.29). There was also no significant effect on quality of life (∆ = -0.02, 95%CI: [-0.09, 0.05], P = 0.53) or self-rated health (∆ = -2.48, 95%CI: [-9.95, 4.99], P = 0.51). CONCLUSIONS: The study did not show the hypothesised effect on hospitalisations and health-related quality of life. Future research should focus on refining this approach, with particular emphasis on optimising the timing of case conferences and implementing discussed changes to treatment plans, to improve collaboration between GPs and SPHC teams.

Effect of SGLT2 inhibitors on heart failure outcomes and cardiovascular death across the cardiometabolic disease spectrum: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors have been studied in patients with heart failure, type 2 diabetes, chronic kidney disease, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, and acute myocardial infarction. Individual trials were powered to study composite outcomes in one disease state. We aimed to evaluate the treatment effect of SGLT2 inhibitors on specific clinical endpoints across multiple demographic and disease subgroups. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we queried online databases (PubMed, Cochrane CENTRAL, and SCOPUS) up to Feb 10, 2024, for primary and secondary analyses of large trials (n>1000) of SGLT2 inhibitors in patients with heart failure, type 2 diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (including acute myocardial infarction). Outcomes studied included composite of first hospitalisation for heart failure or cardiovascular death, first hospitalisation for heart failure, cardiovascular death, total (first and recurrent) hospitalisation for heart failure, and all-cause mortality. Effect sizes were pooled using random-effects models. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42024513836. FINDINGS: We included 15 trials (N=100 952). Compared with placebo, SGLT2 inhibitors reduced the risk of first hospitalisation for heart failure by 29% in patients with heart failure (hazard ratio [HR] 0·71 [95% CI 0·67-0·77]), 28% in patients with type 2 diabetes (0·72 [0·67-0·77]), 32% in patients with chronic kidney disease (0·68 [0·61-0·77]), and 28% in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (0·72 [0·66-0·79]). SGLT2 inhibitors reduced cardiovascular death by 14% in patients with heart failure (HR 0·86 [95% CI 0·79-0·93]), 15% in patients with type 2 diabetes (0·85 [0·79-0·91]), 11% in patients with chronic kidney disease (0·89 [0·82-0·96]), and 13% in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (0·87 [0·78-0·97]). The benefit of SGLT2 inhibitors on both first hospitalisation for heart failure and cardiovascular death was consistent across the majority of the 51 subgroups studied. Notable exceptions included acute myocardial infarction (22% reduction in first hospitalisation for heart failure; no effect on cardiovascular death) and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (26% reduction in first hospitalisation for heart failure; no effect on cardiovascular death). INTERPRETATION: SGLT2 inhibitors reduced heart failure events and cardiovascular death in patients with heart failure, type 2 diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. These effects were consistent across a wide range of subgroups within these populations. This supports the eligibility of a large population with cardiorenal-metabolic diseases for treatment with SGLT2 inhibitors. FUNDING: None.

Transition from asymptomatic to symptomatic systolic chronic heart failure: rationale and design of TransitionCHF.

AIMS: Chronic systolic heart failure (CHF) is a major health burden. A relevant number of patients shows asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction (ALVSD) before symptomatic CHF or becomes asymptomatic after initiating heart failure therapy. Clinical course, prognosis, and response to pharmacological and device-based treatment are largely unknown in these two distinct groups of patients. Current pharmacological and interventional therapies do neither properly address the underlying pathophysiology nor prevent malignant loss of function. New therapeutic paradigms are needed to stop the progression from asymptomatic to symptomatic heart failure. Key questions are what causes progression of clinically asymptomatic New York Heart Association (NYHA) I heart failure to overt heart failure (>NYHA I) in some but not all patients and the underlying reasons for this transition. This requires the identification of disease mechanisms and biomarkers that predict outcome in well-defined cohorts for innovative preclinical and clinical trials. METHODS AND RESULTS: TransitionCHF is a prospective, multicentre, longitudinal pathophysiological evaluation cohort study in patients with asymptomatic systolic dysfunction NYHA I and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40%. The cohort comprises both incidental findings and patients who had become asymptomatic after a previous symptomatic event. TransitionCHF has recruited 1000 patients with ALVSD caused by various aetiologies in 20 university heart failure clinics across Germany. Both patients with and without comorbidities at study entry will be recruited. Patients will be systematically investigated and followed up annually over the course of the study. The primary composite endpoint is time to hospitalization for heart failure and cardiovascular death. The secondary endpoints assess time to all-cause mortality, to cardiovascular mortality, to heart failure mortality, to all-cause hospitalization, to heart failure hospitalization, and to recurrent heart failure hospitalizations, as well as time to assist device implantation/transplantation. Additional investigations focusing on biomarkers, comorbidities, gender aspects, nutrition, and functional parameters including quality of life will be performed. CONCLUSIONS: TransitionCHF will provide a more thorough pathophysiological understanding of the progression of asymptomatic systolic dysfunction into symptomatic heart failure that will help develop therapies tailored to prevent progressive heart failure.

Health economic evaluation of blended collaborative care for older multimorbid heart failure patients: study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Integrated care, in particular the 'Blended Collaborative Care (BCC)' strategy, may have the potential to improve health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in multimorbid patients with heart failure (HF) and psychosocial burden at no or low additional cost. The ESCAPE trial is a randomised controlled trial for the evaluation of a BCC approach in five European countries. For the economic evaluation of alongside this trial, the four main objectives were: (i) to document the costs of delivering the intervention, (ii) to assess the running costs across study sites, (iii) to evaluate short-term cost-effectiveness and cost-utility compared to providers' usual care, and (iv) to examine the budgetary implications. METHODS: The trial-based economic analyses will include cross-country cost-effectiveness and cost-utility assessments from a payer perspective. The cost-utility analysis will calculate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) using the EQ-5D-5L and national value sets. Cost-effectiveness will include the cost per hospital admission avoided and the cost per depression-free days (DFD). Resource use will be measured from different sources, including electronic medical health records, standardised questionnaires, patient receipts and a care manager survey. Uncertainty will be addressed using bootstrapping. DISCUSSION: The various methods and approaches used for data acquisition should provide insights into the potential benefits and cost-effectiveness of a BCC intervention. Providing the economic evaluation of ESCAPE will contribute to a country-based structural and organisational planning of BCC (e.g., the number of patients that may benefit, how many care managers are needed). Improved care is expected to enhance health-related quality of life at little or no extra cost. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study follows CHEERS2022 and is registered at the German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS00025120).

Methods for non-proportional hazards in clinical trials: A systematic review.

For the analysis of time-to-event data, frequently used methods such as the log-rank test or the Cox proportional hazards model are based on the proportional hazards assumption, which is often debatable. Although a wide range of parametric and non-parametric methods for non-proportional hazards has been proposed, there is no consensus on the best approaches. To close this gap, we conducted a systematic literature search to identify statistical methods and software appropriate under non-proportional hazard. Our literature search identified 907 abstracts, out of which we included 211 articles, mostly methodological ones. Review articles and applications were less frequently identified. The articles discuss effect measures, effect estimation and regression approaches, hypothesis tests, and sample size calculation approaches, which are often tailored to specific non-proportional hazard situations. Using a unified notation, we provide an overview of methods available. Furthermore, we derive some guidance from the identified articles.

Randomized investigation of the MitraClip device in heart failure: Design and rationale of the RESHAPE-HF2 trial design.

AIMS: The safety and effectiveness of the MitraClip device to treat functional mitral regurgitation (FMR) has been tested in previous clinical trials yielding somewhat heterogeneous results in heart failure (HF) patients. Over time, the MitraClip device system has been modified and clinical practice evolved to consider also less severely diseased HF patients with FMR for this therapeutic option. The RESHAPE-HF2 trial aims to assess the safety and effectiveness of the MitraClip device system on top of medical therapy considered optimal in the treatment of clinically significant FMR in symptomatic patients with chronic HF. METHODS: The RESHAPE-HF2 is an investigator-initiated, prospective, randomized, parallel-controlled, multicentre trial designed to evaluate the use of the MitraClip device (used in the most up-to-date version as available at sites) plus optimal standard of care therapy (device group) compared to optimal standard of care therapy alone (control group). Eligible subjects have signs and symptoms of HF (New York Heart Association [NYHA] class II-IV despite optimal therapy), and have moderate-to-severe or severe FMR, as confirmed by a central echocardiography core laboratory; have an ejection fraction between ≥20% and ≤50% (initially 15-35% for NYHA class II patients, and 15-45% for NYHA class III/IV patients); have been adequately treated per applicable standards, and have received appropriate revascularization and cardiac resynchronization therapy, if eligible; had a HF hospitalization or elevated natriuretic peptides (B-type natriuretic peptide [BNP] ≥300 pg/ml or N-terminal proBNP ≥1000 pg/ml) in the last 90 days; and in whom isolated mitral valve surgery is not a recommended treatment option. The trial has three primary endpoints, which are these: (i) the composite rate of total (first and recurrent) HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular death during 24 months of follow-up, (ii) the rate of total (i.e. first and recurrent) HF hospitalizations within 24 months, and (iii) the change from baseline to 12 months in the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire overall score. The three primary endpoints will be analysed using the Hochberg procedure to control the familywise type I error rate across the three hypotheses. CONCLUSIONS: The RESHAPE-HF2 trial will provide sound evidence on the MitraClip device and its effects in HF patients with FMR. The recruitment was recently completed with 506 randomized patients.

[OPTINOFA-Intelligent assistance service for structured assessment in the emergency department]. / OPTINOFA ­ Intelligenter Assistenzdienst zur strukturierten Ersteinschätzung in der Notaufnahme.

BACKGROUND: Case numbers in central emergency departments (EDs) have risen during the past decade in Germany, leading to recurrent overcrowding, increased risks in emergency care, and elevated costs. Particularly the fraction of outpatient emergency treatments has increased disproportionately. Within the framework of the Optimization of emergency care by structured triage with intelligent assistant service (OPTINOFA, Förderkennzeichen [FKZ] 01NVF17035) project, an intelligent assistance service was developed. PATIENTS AND METHODS: New triage algorithms were developed for the 20 most frequent leading symptoms on the basis of established triage systems (emergency severity index, ESI; Manchester triage system, MTS) and provided as web-based intelligent assistance services on mobile devices. To evaluate the validity, reliability, and safety of the new OPTINOFA triage instrument, a pilot study was conducted in three EDs after ethics committee approval. RESULTS: In the pilot study, n = 718 ED patients were included (age 59.1 ± 22 years; 349 male, 369 female). With respect to disposition (out-/inpatient), a sensitivity of 91.1% and a specificity of 40.7%, and a good correlation with the OPTINOFA triage levels were detected (Spearman's rank correlation ρ = 0.41). Furthermore, the area under the curve (AUC) for prediction of disposition according to the OPTINOFA triage level was 0.73. The in-hospital mortality rate of OPTINOFA triage levels 4 and 5 was 0%. The association between the length of ED stay and the OPTINOFA triage level was shown to be significant (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The results of the pilot study demonstrate the safety and validity of the new triage system OPTINOFA. By definition of both urgency and emergency care level, new customized perspectives for load reduction in German EDs via a closer cooperation between out- and inpatient sectors of emergency care could be established.

A diagnostic phase III/IV seamless design to investigate the diagnostic accuracy and clinical effectiveness using the example of HEDOS and HEDOS II.

The development process of medical devices can be streamlined by combining different study phases. Here, for a diagnostic medical device, we present the combination of confirmation of diagnostic accuracy (phase III) and evaluation of clinical effectiveness regarding patient-relevant endpoints (phase IV) using a seamless design. This approach is used in the Thyroid HEmorrhage DetectOr Study (HEDOS & HEDOS II) investigating a post-operative hemorrhage detector named ISAR-M THYRO® in patients after thyroid surgery. Data from the phase III trial are reused as external controls in the control group of the phase IV trial. An unblinded interim analysis is planned between the two study stages which includes a recalculation of the sample size for the phase IV part after completion of the first stage of the seamless design. The study concept presented here is the first seamless design proposed in the field of diagnostic studies. Hence, the aim of this work is to emphasize the statistical methodology as well as feasibility of the proposed design in relation to the planning and implementation of the seamless design. Seamless designs can accelerate the overall trial duration and increase its efficiency in terms of sample size and recruitment. However, careful planning addressing numerous methodological and procedural challenges is necessary for successful implementation as well as agreement with regulatory bodies.

On the role of benchmarking data sets and simulations in method comparison studies.

Method comparisons are essential to provide recommendations and guidance for applied researchers, who often have to choose from a plethora of available approaches. While many comparisons exist in the literature, these are often not neutral but favor a novel method. Apart from the choice of design and a proper reporting of the findings, there are different approaches concerning the underlying data for such method comparison studies. Most manuscripts on statistical methodology rely on simulation studies and provide a single real-world data set as an example to motivate and illustrate the methodology investigated. In the context of supervised learning, in contrast, methods are often evaluated using so-called benchmarking data sets, that is, real-world data that serve as gold standard in the community. Simulation studies, on the other hand, are much less common in this context. The aim of this paper is to investigate differences and similarities between these approaches, to discuss their advantages and disadvantages, and ultimately to develop new approaches to the evaluation of methods picking the best of both worlds. To this aim, we borrow ideas from different contexts such as mixed methods research and Clinical Scenario Evaluation.