Mental Health of Adolescents Exposed to the War in Ukraine.

Importance: With exposure to traumatic events and reduced access to mental health care, adolescents of Ukraine during the Russian invasion since February 2022 are at high risk of psychiatric conditions. However, the actual mental health burden of the war has scarcely been documented. Objective: To investigate the prevalence of a positive screen for psychiatric conditions among adolescents amidst the ongoing war in Ukraine as well as their associations with war exposure. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study reports the results from the first wave of the Adolescents of Ukraine During the Russian Invasion cohort, the largest cohort study on Ukrainian adolescents' mental health during the Russian invasion since 2022. Using self-reported questionnaires, the national-level prevalence of a positive screen for various psychiatric conditions was estimated among adolescents aged 15 years or older attending secondary school in Ukraine in person or online (including those residing abroad but attending Ukrainian secondary school online) and the prevalence among Ukrainian adolescents living abroad due to the war. Exposure: Self-reported exposure to war. Main Outcomes and Measures: A positive screen for psychiatric conditions. The association between self-reported war exposure and a positive screen for each of the psychiatric conditions was also evaluated. Results: A total of 8096 Ukrainian adolescents (4988 [61.6%] female) living in Ukraine or abroad were included in the analyses. Based on national-level estimates, 49.6% of the adolescents were directly exposed to war, 32.0% screened positive for moderate or severe depression, 17.9% for moderate or severe anxiety, 35.0% for clinically relevant psychological trauma, 29.5% for eating disorders, and 20.5% for medium risk or higher of substance use disorder. The burden of psychiatric symptoms was similarly large among Ukrainian adolescents living abroad. Adolescents exposed to war were more likely to screen positive for depression (prevalence ratio [PR], 1.39; 95% CI, 1.29-1.50), anxiety (PR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.45-1.81), clinically relevant psychological trauma (PR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.32-1.50), eating disorders (PR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.12-1.32), and substance use disorder (PR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.98-1.25). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study suggest that the mental health burden of Ukrainian adolescents amidst the Russian invasion of Ukraine is substantial. Mental health care efforts to alleviate the mental health burden of Ukrainian adolescents are needed.

Machine learning for detection of heterogeneous effects of Medicaid coverage on depression.

In 2008, Oregon expanded its Medicaid program using a lottery, creating a rare opportunity to study the effects of Medicaid coverage using a randomized controlled design (Oregon Health Insurance Experiment). Analysis showed that Medicaid coverage lowered the risk of depression. However, this effect may vary between individuals, and the identification of individuals likely to benefit the most has the potential to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the Medicaid program. By applying the machine learning causal forest to data from this experiment, we found substantial heterogeneity in the effect of Medicaid coverage on depression; individuals with high predicted benefit were older and had more physical or mental health conditions at baseline. Expanding coverage to individuals with high predicted benefit generated greater reduction in depression prevalence than expanding to all eligible individuals (21.5 vs 8.8 percentage-point reduction; adjusted difference = +12.7 [95% CI, +4.6 to +20.8]; P = 0.003), at substantially lower cost per case prevented ($16 627 vs $36 048; adjusted difference = -$18 598 [95% CI, -156 953 to -3120]; P = 0.04). Medicaid coverage reduces depression substantially more in a subset of the population than others, in ways that are predictable in advance. Targeting coverage on those most likely to benefit could improve the effectiveness and efficiency of insurance expansion. This article is part of a Special Collection on Mental Health.