Modelling COVID-19 Vaccination in the UK: Impact of the Autumn 2022 and Spring 2023 Booster Campaigns.

INTRODUCTION: The delivery of COVID-19 vaccines was successful in reducing hospitalizations and mortality. However, emergence of the Omicron variant resulted in increased virus transmissibility. Consequently, booster vaccination programs were initiated to decrease the risk of severe disease and death among vulnerable members of the population. This study aimed to estimate the effects of the booster program and alternative vaccination strategies on morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19 in the UK. METHOD: A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model was used to assess the impact of several vaccination strategies on severe outcomes associated with COVID-19, including hospitalizations, mortality, National Health Service (NHS) capacity quantified by hospital general ward and intensive care unit (ICU) bed days, and patient productivity. The model accounted for age-, risk- and immunity-based stratification of the UK population. Outcomes were evaluated over a 48-week time horizon from September 2022 to August 2023 considering the actual UK autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaigns and six counterfactual strategies. RESULTS: The model estimated that the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign resulted in a reduction of 18,921 hospitalizations and 1463 deaths, compared with a no booster scenario. Utilization of hospital bed days due to COVID-19 decreased after the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign. Expanding the booster eligibility criteria and improving uptake improved all outcomes, including averting twice as many ICU admissions, preventing more than 20% additional deaths, and a sevenfold reduction in long COVID, compared with the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign. The number of productive days lost was reduced by fivefold indicating that vaccinating a wider population has a beneficial impact on the morbidities associated with COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Our modelling demonstrates that the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign reduced COVID-19-associated morbidity and mortality. Booster campaigns with alternative eligibility criteria warrant consideration in the UK, given their potential to further reduce morbidity and mortality as future variants emerge.

Estimating the Treatment and Prophylactic Economic Value of New Antimicrobials in Managing Antibiotic Resistance and Serious Infections for Common Pathogens in the USA: A Population Modelling Study.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance is a growing public health concern. There is a global need to estimate the population-level value of developing new antimicrobials and to ensure the effective use of existing antimicrobials as strategies to counteract antimicrobial resistance. To this aim, population-level value criteria need to be considered alongside conventional value measures. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to develop a novel modelling approach to estimate the value of new antimicrobials, considering the transmission, diversity and enablement elements of STEDI value. METHODS: We developed a population-based mathematical model for the assessment of antimicrobial value considering both prophylactic use of antimicrobials and the treatment of selected serious hospital-acquired infections in hospitals in the USA at a population level. Large-scale clinical and population healthcare data were used to inform a modelling-based analysis assessing the impact of introducing a new antimicrobial compared with continuing with no new antimicrobial, accounting for the transmission, diversity and enablement value of antimicrobial agents. RESULTS: Over a 10-year period, the addition of a new antimicrobial as part of an antimicrobial stewardship strategy in the USA was estimated to result in a proportional reduction of 9.03% in projected antimicrobial resistance levels. This yielded an estimated reduction of $64.3 million in hospitalization costs and a gain of over 153,000 quality-adjusted life-years at an economic value of over $15.4 billion over 10 years. Considering input uncertainty, the estimate of monetary benefit ranged from $11.1 to $21.4 billion. CONCLUSIONS: The use of a new antimicrobial for treatment and prophylactic indications yields considerable clinical and economic benefits including transmission diversity and enablement value. These findings may provide decision makers with important evidence to support investment in new antimicrobials and antimicrobial stewardship policy that address the patient, population and system burden associated with antimicrobial resistance.

Budget impact of oral nirmatrelvir/ritonavir in adults at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19 in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (NMV/r) is indicated for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in adults who are at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19. NMV/r has also been authorized for emergency use by the US Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in pediatric patients (aged 226512 years and weighing at least 40 kg) who are at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19. Understanding the budget impact of introducing NMV/r for the treatment of adults with COVID-19 is of key interest to US payers. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the annual budget impact of introducing NMV/r in a US commercial health plan setting in the current Omicron COVID-19 era. METHODS: A budget impact model was developed to assess the impact of NMV/r on health care costs in a hypothetical 1-million-member commercial health insurance plan over a 1-year period in the US population; clinical and cost inputs were derived from published literature with a focus on studies in the recent COVID-19 era that included vaccinated population and predominance of the Omicron variant. In the base-case analysis, it was assumed the only effect of NMV/r was a reduction in incidence (not severity) of hospitalization or death; its potential effect on post-COVID conditions was assessed in a scenario analysis. Outcomes included the number of hospitalizations, total cost, per patient per year (PPPY) costs, and per member per month (PMPM) costs. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted to assess uncertainty around key model inputs. RESULTS: An estimated 29,999 adults were eligible and sought treatment with oral antiviral for COVID-19 over 1 year. The availability of NMV/r was estimated to reduce the number of hospitalizations by 647 with a total budget impact of $2,733,745, $91 PPPY, and $0.23 PMPM. NMV/r was cost saving when including post-COVID conditions with a -$1,510,780 total budget impact, a PPPY cost of -$50, and a PMPM cost of -$0.13. Sensitivity analyses indicated results were most sensitive to the risk of hospitalization under supportive care, risk of hospitalization with NMV/r treatment and cost of NMV/r. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with NMV/r in the current COVID-19 era is estimated to result in substantial cost offsets because of reductions in hospitalization and modest budget impact to potential overall cost savings.

Virologic Response to Dolutegravir Plus Lamivudine in People With Suppressed Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 and Historical M184V/I: A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-analysis.

Background: To investigate the impact of the M184V/I mutation on virologic response to dolutegravir plus lamivudine (DTG + 3TC) in suppressed-switch populations, a meta-analysis was performed using virologic outcomes from people with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (PWH) with and without M184V/I before DTG + 3TC switch in real-world studies identified via systematic literature review. Sensitivity analyses were performed using data from PWH with M184V/I in interventional studies identified via targeted literature review. Methods: Single-arm meta-analyses using common- and random-effects models were used to estimate proportions of PWH with virologic failure (VF) among real-world populations with and without M184V/I and interventional study participants with M184V/I at 24, 48, and 96 weeks. Results: Literature reviews identified 5 real-world studies from 3907 publications and 51 abstracts meeting inclusion criteria and 5 interventional studies from 1789 publications and 3 abstracts. All time points had low VF incidence in PWH with M184V/I (real-world: 1.43%-3.81%; interventional: 0.00%) and without (real-world: 0.73%-2.37%). Meta-analysis-estimated proportions (95% confidence interval) with VF were low at weeks 24, 48, and 96, respectively, for PWH with M184V/I (real-world: 0.01 [.00-.04], 0.03 [.01-.06], and 0.04 [.01-.07]; interventional: 0.00 [.00-.02], 0.00 [.00-.01], and 0.00 [.00-.03]) and without (real-world: 0.00 [.00-.02], 0.02 [.01-.04], and 0.02 [.00-.05]). One real-world study (n = 712) reported treatment-emergent M184V at VF in 1 of 652 (0.15%) PWH without prior M184V/I. Conclusions: Results suggest that prior M184V/I has minimal impact on virologic suppression after switching to DTG + 3TC and provide reassurance when considering switching regimens in virologically suppressed PWH with incomplete treatment history or limited treatment options.

Cabotegravir and Rilpivirine Long-Acting Antiretroviral Therapy Administered Every 2 Months is Cost-Effective for the Treatment of HIV-1 in Spain.

INTRODUCTION: Current antiretroviral therapies (ARTs) have improved outcomes for people living with HIV. However, the requirement to adhere to lifelong daily oral dosing may be challenging for some people living with HIV, leading to suboptimal adherence and therefore reduced treatment effectiveness. Treatment with long-acting (LA) ART may improve adherence and health-related quality of life. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of cabotegravir + rilpivirine (CAB+RPV) LA administered every 2 months (Q2M) compared with current ART administered as daily oral single-tablet regimens (STRs) from a Spanish National Healthcare System perspective. METHODS: A hybrid decision-tree and Markov state-transition model was used with pooled data from three phase III/IIIb trials (FLAIR, ATLAS, and ATLAS-2M) over a lifetime horizon, with health states defined by viral load and CD4+ cell count. Direct costs (in €) were taken from Spanish public sources from 2021 and several deterministic and probabilistic analyses were carried out. An annual 3% discount rate was applied to both costs and utilities. RESULTS: Over the lifetime horizon, CAB+RPV LA Q2M was associated with an additional 0.27 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and slightly greater lifetime costs (€4003) versus daily oral ART, leading to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €15,003/QALY, below the commonly accepted €30,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold in Spain. All scenario analyses showed consistent results, and the probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed cost-effectiveness compared with daily oral STRs in 62.4% of simulations, being dominant in 0.3%. CONCLUSION: From the Spanish National Health System perspective, CAB+RPV LA Q2M is a cost-effective alternative compared with the current options of daily oral STR regimens for HIV treatment. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: ATLAS, NCT02951052; ATLAS-2M, NCT03299049; FLAIR, NCT02938520.

Over the past decades, treatments for HIV infection have improved outcomes for people living with HIV. However, most of the treatments available consist of daily oral administration, which may present challenges for some people. These challenges may lead to a less optimal intake of the medicines and, therefore, to a potential reduction of treatment effectiveness. A new long-acting treatment alternative for HIV with two drugs is now available: cabotegravir + rilpivirine long-acting is the first injectable treatment administered in the muscle every 2 months by a healthcare professional. Long-acting injectables may improve treatment administration and health-related quality of life of people living with HIV. This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of cabotegravir + rilpivirine long-acting in Spain compared with daily oral single-tablet treatment for HIV. An economic model using clinical data and Spanish inputs was used to estimate cost-effectiveness and health outcomes over a lifetime. Cabotegravir + rilpivirine long-acting compared with daily oral single-tablet treatment showed an increase in health-related quality of life, leading to a cost-effectiveness ratio of €15,003, below the Spanish willingness-to-pay threshold of €30,000. All different scenarios tested showed consistent results, with cabotegravir + rilpivirine long-acting being cost-effective in 62.4% of the simulations and less costly and more effective in 0.3%. This study demonstrated that, in Spain, cabotegravir + rilpivirine long-acting administered every 2 months is a cost-effective alternative to the current daily oral single-tablet treatment options for HIV.

Impact of ferric carboxymaltose for iron deficiency at discharge after heart failure hospitalization: a European multinational economic evaluation.

AIMS: Iron deficiency (ID) is comorbid in up to 50% patients with heart failure (HF) and exacerbates disease burden. Ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) reduced HF hospitalizations and improved quality of life when used to treat ID at discharge in patients hospitalized for acute HF with left ventricular ejection fraction <50% in the AFFIRM-AHF trial. We quantified the effect of FCM on burden of disease and the wider pharmacoeconomic implications in France, Germany, Poland, Spain and Sweden. METHODS AND RESULTS: The per country eligible population was calculated, aligning with the 2021 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) HF guidelines and the AFFIRM-AHF trial. Changes in burden of disease with FCM versus standard of care (SoC) were represented by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), hospitalization episodes and bed days, using AFFIRM-AHF data. A Markov model was adapted to each country to estimate cost-effectiveness and combined with epidemiology data to calculate the impact on healthcare budgets. Between 335 (Sweden) and 13 237 (Germany) DALYs were predicted to be avoided with FCM use annually. Fewer hospitalizations and shorter lengths of stay associated with FCM compared to SoC were projected to result in substantial annual savings in bed days, from 5215 in Sweden to 205 630 in Germany. In all countries, FCM was predicted to be dominant (cost saving with gains in quality-adjusted life years), resulting in net savings to healthcare budgets within 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: This comprehensive evaluation of FCM therapy highlights the potential benefits that could be realized through implementation of the ESC HF guideline recommendations regarding ID treatment.