Diverse Shape Design and Physical Property Evaluation of In-Body Tissue Architecture-Induced Tissues.

Autologous-engineered artificial tissues constitute an ideal alternative for radical surgery in terms of natural anticoagulation, self-repair, tissue regeneration, and the possibility of growth. Previously, we focused on the development and practical application of artificial tissues using "in-body tissue architecture (iBTA)", a technique that uses living bodies as bioreactors. This study aimed to further develop iBTA by fabricating tissues with diverse shapes and evaluating their physical properties. Although the breaking strength increased with tissue thickness, the nominal breaking stress increased with thinner tissues. By carving narrow grooves on the outer periphery of an inner core with narrow grooves, we fabricated approximately 2.2 m long cord-shaped tissues and net-shaped tissues with various designs. By assembling the two inner cores inside the branched stainless-steel pipes, a large graft with branching was successfully fabricated, and its aortic arch replacement was conducted in a donor goat without causing damage. In conclusion, by applying iBTA technology, we have made it possible, for the first time, to create tissues of various shapes and designs that are difficult using existing tissue-engineering techniques. Thicker iBTA-induced tissues exhibited higher rupture strength; however, rupture stress was inversely proportional to thickness. These findings broaden the range of iBTA-induced tissue applications.

Characterizing Healthy Dietary Practices in Japan: Insights from a 2024 Nationwide Survey and Cluster Analysis.

The increasing burden of lifestyle-related diseases highlights the need to address unhealthy dietary habits. This study aims to explore the latest dietary patterns in Japan following the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on trends in health-promoting food choices. A web-based survey was conducted among 27,154 Japanese adults, selected via quota sampling to mirror national demographics. The study evaluated dietary diversity, measured through the Dietary Variety Score (Outcome 1), and the prioritization of nutritional and health considerations in food selection, assessed via a Likert scale (Outcome 2). Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) and Ordering Points To Identify the Clustering Structure (OPTICS) algorithms were used to delineate patterns in health-centric food selections. OPTICS clustering revealed four distinct clusters for each outcome. Cluster 3, with a diverse diet, comprised older, predominantly female individuals with higher well-being and lower social isolation compared to Cluster 4, which lacked distinct dietary patterns. Cluster 3 also engaged more in snacking, treat foods, home cooking, and frozen meals. Similarly, a divide emerged between those prioritizing dietary considerations (Cluster C) and those indifferent to such aspects (Cluster D). The findings underscore the need for holistic post-COVID-19 public health initiatives addressing socioeconomic and cultural barriers to healthier dietary practices.

Breaking the Limit of Cardiovascular Regenerative Medicine: Successful 6-Month Goat Implant in World's First Ascending Aortic Replacement Using Biotube Blood Vessels.

This study investigated six-month outcomes of first models of ascending aortic replacement. The molds used to produce the Biotube were implanted subcutaneously in goats. After 2-3 months, the molds were explanted to obtain the Biotubes (inner diameter, 12 mm; wall thickness, 1.5 mm). Next, we performed ascending aortic replacement using the Biotube in five allogenic goats. At 6 months, the animals underwent computed tomography (CT) and histologic evaluation. As a comparison, we performed similar surgeries using glutaraldehyde-fixed autologous pericardial rolls or pig-derived heterogenous Biotubes. At 6 months, CT revealed no aneurysmalization of the Biotube or pseudoaneurysm formation. The histologic evaluation showed development of endothelial cells, smooth muscle cells, and elastic fibers along the Biotube. In the autologous pericardium group, there was no evidence of new cell development, but there was calcification. The histologic changes observed in the heterologous Biotube group were similar to those in the allogenic Biotube group. However, there was inflammatory cell infiltration in some heterologous Biotubes. Based on the above, we could successfully create the world's first Biotube-based ascending aortic replacement models. The present results indicate that the Biotube may serve as a scaffold for aortic tissue regeneration.

Carotid Artery Bypass Surgery of In-Body Tissue Architecture-Induced Small-Diameter Biotube in a Goat Model: A Pilot Study.

Biotubes are autologous tubular tissues developed within a patient's body through in-body tissue architecture, and they demonstrate high potential for early clinical application as a vascular replacement. In this pilot study, we used large animals to perform implantation experiments in preparation for preclinical testing of Biotube. The biological response after Biotube implantation was histologically evaluated. The designed Biotubes (length: 50 cm, internal diameter: 4 mm, and wall thickness: 0.85 mm) were obtained by embedding molds on the backs of six goats for a predetermined period (1-5 months). The same goats underwent bypass surgery on the carotid arteries using Biotubes (average length: 12 cm). After implantation, echocardiography was used to periodically monitor patency and blood flow velocity. The maximum observation period was 6 months, and tissue analysis was conducted after graft removal, including the anastomosis. All molds generated Biotubes that exceeded the tensile strength of normal goat carotid arteries, and eight randomly selected Biotubes were implanted. Thrombotic occlusion occurred immediately postoperatively (1 tube) if anticoagulation was insufficient, and two tubes, with insufficient Biotube strength (<5 N), were ruptured within a week. Five tubes maintained patency for >2 months without aneurysm formation. The spots far from the anastomosis became stenosed within 3 months (3 tubes) when Biotubes had a wide intensity distribution, but the shape of the remaining two tubes remained unchanged for 6 months. The entire length of the bypass region was walled with an αSMA-positive cell layer, and an endothelial cell layer covered most of the lumen at 2 months. Complete endothelial laying of the luminal surface was obtained at 3 months after implantation, and a vascular wall structure similar to that of native blood vessels was formed, which was maintained even at 6 months. The stenosis was indicated to be caused by fibrin adhesion on the luminal surface, migration of repair macrophages, and granulation formation due to the overproliferation of αSMA-positive fibroblasts. We revealed the importance of Biotubes that are homogeneous, demonstrate a tensile strength > 5 N, and are implanted under appropriate antithrombotic conditions to achieve long-term patency of Biotube. Further, we clarified the Biotube regeneration process and the mechanism of stenosis. Finally, we obtained the necessary conditions for a confirmatory implant study planned shortly.

Quality of epicardial adipose tissue predicts major adverse cerebral and cardiovascular events following transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) have been shown to be associated with several heart disease, including coronary artery disease (CAD), atrial fibrillation (AF), and heart failure (HF). It is reported that the quality of EAT, represented by fat attenuation determined using computed tomography (CT) imaging, can detect the histologically-assessed remodeled EAT. We tested the hypothesis that quality of EAT would predict major adverse cerebral and cardiovascular events (MACCE) following transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) in patients with aortic stenosis (AS). A total of 125 consecutive severe AS patients who underwent TAVI were enrolled (39 male, mean 85.4 ± 4.0 years). Using CT imaging before TAVI, we measured the average CT fat attenuation of EAT (EAT attenuation) and investigated the association with MACCE. During the mean follow up period of 567 ± 371 days, 21 cases of MACCE were observed. Patients with MACCE had greater levels of EAT attenuation compared to those without (- 74 ± 3.7 Hounsfield Units (HU) vs - 77 ± 5.5 HU, p = 0.010). Based on the ROC curves, the high EAT attenuation was defined as > - 74.3 HU. According to this cut-off index, 44 patients were classified into the high EAT attenuation group (28 female, mean age 87 ± 3.6 years), whereas 81 patients were classified into the low EAT attenuation group (13 female, 85 ± 4.1 years). Kaplan-Meier survival curve demonstrated that the patients in the high EAT attenuation group showed greater prevalence of MACCE (log-rank 6.64, p = 0.010). Cox proportional hazards regression analysis revealed that EAT attenuation and Logistic EuroSCORE were independently associated with the incidence of MACCE. Our results suggest that quality of EAT, assessed by EAT attenuation detected by CT imaging, can predict the cerebral and cardiovascular events after TAVI in patients with AS.

Nanoarchitectonics of highly dispersed polythiophene on paper for accurate quantitative detection of metal ions.

π-Conjugated polymers such as polythiophene provide intramolecular wire effects upon analyte capture, which contribute to sensitive detection in chemical sensing. However, inherent aggregation-induced quenching causes difficulty in fluorescent chemical sensing in the solid state. Herein, we propose a solid-state fluorescent chemosensor array device made of a paper substrate (PCSAD) for the qualitative and quantitative detection of metal ions. A polythiophene derivative modified by dipicolylamine moieties (1poly), which shows optical changes upon the addition of target metal ions (i.e., Cu2+, Cd2+, Ni2+, Co2+, Pb2+, Zn2+, and Hg2+), was highly dispersed on the paper substrate using office apparatus. In this regard, morphological observation of the PCSAD after printing of 1poly suggested the contribution of the fiber structures of the paper substrate to the homogeneous dispersion of 1poly ink to suppress aggregation-induced quenching. The optical changes in the PCSAD upon the addition of metal ions was rapidly recorded using a smartphone, which was further applied to imaging analysis and pattern recognition techniques for high-throughput sensing. Indeed, the printed PCSAD embedded with 1poly achieved the accurate detection of metal ions at ppm levels contained in river water. The limit of detection of the PCSAD-based sensing system using a smartphone (48 ppb for Cu2+ ions) is comparable to that of a solution-based sensing system using a stationary spectrophotometer (16 ppb for Cu2+ ions). Therefore, the methodology based on a combination of a paper-based sensor array and a π-conjugated polymer will be a promising approach for solid-state fluorescent chemosensors.

The Efficacy of an mHealth App in Facilitating Weight Loss Among Japanese Fitness Center Members: Regression Analysis Study.

BACKGROUND: Self-tracking smartphone apps have emerged as promising tools to encourage healthy behaviors. In this longitudinal study, we used gym use data from members of a major fitness club that operates gyms throughout Japan from January 2014 to December 2019. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to assess the extent to which a health and fitness self-tracking mobile app introduced to gym members on January 1, 2018, contributed to their weight loss. The app allows users to input information regarding diet, sleep, weight, and gym exercise so that they can receive personalized feedback from an artificial intelligence chatbot to improve their health behaviors. METHODS: We used linear regression to quantify the association between app use and weight loss. The primary outcome of the study was the weight loss achieved by each gym user, which was calculated as the difference between their initial and final weights in kilograms, as recorded in the app. Individuals who did not attend the gym or failed to use the mobile app at least twice during the study period were excluded from the analysis. The model accounted for age, gender, distance between the gym and the member's residence, average weekly number of times a member used the gym, user's gym membership length in weeks, average weekly number of times a member input information into the app, and the number of weeks that the app was used at least once. RESULTS: Data from 26,589 participants were analyzed. Statistically significant associations were detected between weight loss and 2 metrics related to app use: the average weekly frequency of use and the total number of weeks in which the app was used at least once. One input per week was found to be associated with a loss of 62.1 (95% CI 53.8-70.5) g, and 1 week of app use was associated with 21.7 (95% CI 20.5-22.9) g of weight loss from the day of the first input to that of the final input to the app. Furthermore, the average number of times that a member used the gym weekly was also shown to be statistically significantly associated with weight loss: 1 use per week was associated with 255.5 (95% CI 228.5-282.6) g of weight loss. CONCLUSIONS: This empirical study demonstrated a significant association between weight loss among gym members and not only the frequency of weekly gym use but also the use of a health and fitness self-tracking app. However, further work is needed to examine the mechanisms through which mobile apps affect health behaviors and to identify the specific app features that are most effective in promoting weight loss.

Low-flow perfusion technique for shaggy aortic arch.

BACKGROUND: The most common complication of thoracic aortic disease with shaggy aorta is cerebral infarction. We have performed "low-flow perfusion" as a method of extracorporeal circulation to prevent cerebral embolism in patients with strong atherosclerotic lesions in the aortic arch. METHODS: "Low-flow perfusion" is a method in which cardiopulmonary bypass is started by partial blood removal, approaching deep hypothermia while maintaining self-cardiac output. We compared the outcomes of 12 patients who underwent the "low-flow perfusion" method (Group L) with those of 12 who underwent normal extracorporeal circulation (Group N) during aortic arch surgery since 2019. RESULTS: Group L consisted of 8 males with an average age of 73 years old, and Group N consisted of 6 males with an average age of 73 years old. The average time from the start of cooling to ventricular fibrillation was 9.5 min in Group L and 3.6 min in Group N (p < 0.01). The eardrum temperature when ventricular fibrillation was reached was 28.2 °C in Group L and 32.5 °C in Group N (p = 0.01). A blood flow analysis also revealed low wall shear stress on the lesser curvature of the aortic arch. CONCLUSION: With this method, the intracranial temperature was sufficiently low at the time of ventricular fibrillation, and there was no need to increase the total pump flow. The low-flow perfusion method can prevent cerebral embolism by preventing atheroma destruction by the blood flow jet while maintaining the self-cardiac output during the cooling process.

Estimation of the time of exposure based on interval and censored data using the ε-accelerated EM algorithm.

Accurately estimating the timing of pathogen exposure plays a crucial role in outbreak control for emerging infectious diseases, including the source identification, contact tracing, and vaccine research and development. However, since surveillance activities often collect data retrospectively after symptoms have appeared, obtaining accurate data on the timing of disease onset is difficult in practice and can involve "coarse" observations, such as interval or censored data. To address this challenge, we propose a novel likelihood function, tailored to coarsely observed data in rapid outbreak surveillance, along with an optimization method based on an ε $$ \varepsilon $$ -accelerated EM algorithm for faster convergence to find maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs). The covariance matrix of MLEs is also discussed using a nonparametric bootstrap approach. In terms of bias and mean-squared error, the performance of our proposed method is evaluated through extensive numerical experiments, as well as its application to a series of epidemiological surveillance focused on cases of mass food poisoning. The experiments show that our method exhibits less bias than conventional methods, providing greater efficiency across all scenarios.

Bioprosthetic Valve Deterioration: Accumulation of Circulating Proteins and Macrophages in the Valve Interstitium.

Histologic evaluations revealed excessive accumulations of macrophages and absence of fibroblastic interstitial cells in explanted bioprosthetic valves. Comprehensive gene and protein expression analysis and histology unveiled an accumulation of fibrinogen and plasminogen, an activator of infiltrated macrophages, from degenerated valve surfaces in the interstitial spaces. These pathologies were completely reproduced in a goat model replaced with an autologous pericardium-derived aortic valve. Further preclinical animal experiments using goats demonstrated that preventing infiltration of macrophages and circulating proteins by increasing collagen density and leaflet strength is an effective treatment option.

Dehydrogenative Annulation of Silylated 1H-Indoles with Alkynes via Silyl Migration.

We investigated the dehydrogenative annulation of silylated 1H-indole derivatives with alkynes to synthesize a silole-fused indole. The addition of the in situ generated silylium ion to alkynes was followed by the sila-Friedel-Crafts reaction via silyl migration, realizing regioselective dehydrogenative annulation controlled by the steric bulkiness of a base. The optical properties of the obtained siloloindoles indicated fluorescence of which the intensity depends on the location of the fused silole.

Reducing salt intake with umami: A secondary analysis of data in the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey.

Reducing sodium content in foods is an important public health measure to reduce salt intake and decrease the incidence of noncommunicable diseases, such as cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease. This study quantified the amount of salt intake that could potentially be reduced by using umami substances, including glutamate, inosinate, and guanylate, without compromising taste, for adults in the United Kingdom (UK). We used data comprised of 1834 adults aged 20 years and over from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS RP) 2016/2017-2018/2019. Four hypothetical scenarios in which the market share of low-sodium foods accounts for 0%, 30%, 60%, or 90% of consumed products were considered in the analyses. Per capita daily salt intake corresponding to the NDNS RP food groups was calculated for each scenario, and the salt intake was aggregated by gender and age groups. Replacing salt with umami substances could help UK adults reduce daily salt intake by 9.09%-18.59% (9.21%-18.43% for women; 8.83%-19.43% for men), which is equivalent to 0.45-0.92 g/day of salt reduction (0.41-0.82 g/day for women; 0.50-1.10 g/day for men). The use of umami substances may serve as one method for the UK government to encourage salt intake reduction, particularly in the context of food product reformulation, as 80% of salt consumed in the country comes from processed foods. Empirical studies with sensory evaluation should be conducted to confirm consumer tolerance. The food industry should also be engaged in conversations regarding the addition of umami to food products in the United Kingdom.

Age-related enhanced degeneration of bioprosthetic valves due to leaflet calcification, tissue crosslinking, and structural changes.

AIMS: Bioprosthetic heart valves (BHVs), made from glutaraldehyde-fixed heterograft materials, are subject to more rapid structural valve degeneration (SVD) in paediatric and young adult patients. Differences in blood biochemistries and propensity for disease accelerate SVD in these patients, which results in multiple re-operations with compounding risks. The goal of this study is to investigate the mechanisms of BHV biomaterial degeneration and present models for studying SVD in young patients and juvenile animal models. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied SVD in clinical BHV explants from paediatric and young adult patients, juvenile sheep implantation model, rat subcutaneous implants, and an ex vivo serum incubation model. BHV biomaterials were analysed for calcification, collagen microstructure (alignment and crimp), and crosslinking density. Serum markers of calcification and tissue crosslinking were compared between young and adult subjects. We demonstrated that immature subjects were more susceptible to calcification, microstructural changes, and advanced glycation end products formation. In vivo and ex vivo studies comparing immature and mature subjects mirrored SVD in clinical observations. The interaction between host serum and BHV biomaterials leads to significant structural and biochemical changes which impact their functions. CONCLUSIONS: There is an increased risk for accelerated SVD in younger subjects, both experimental animals and patients. Increased calcification, altered collagen microstructure with loss of alignment and increased crimp periods, and increased crosslinking are three main characteristics in BHV explants from young subjects leading to SVD. Together, our studies establish a basis for assessing the increased susceptibility of BHV biomaterials to accelerated SVD in young patients.

Recent changes in the reporting of STIs in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic has had variable effects on the rates of STIs reported across the globe. This study sought to assess how the number of STI reports changed during the pandemic in Japan. METHODS: We used national infectious disease surveillance data from the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (Tokyo, Japan) for the period between January 2013 and December 2021. We compared reported rates of chlamydia, gonorrhoea, condyloma acuminata and genital herpes, as well as total notifications for HIV/AIDS and syphilis during the pandemic versus previous years in Japan. We used a quasi-Poisson regression to determine whether any given week or month between January 2018 and December 2021 had a significant excess or deficit of STIs. Notification values above or below the 95% upper and lower prediction thresholds were considered as statistically significant. The start of the pandemic was defined as January 2020. RESULTS: Chlamydia generally remained within predicted range during the pandemic period. Reporting of gonorrhoea was significantly higher than expected throughout early-to-mid 2021 but otherwise generally remained within predicted range prior to 2021. Condyloma, herpes and HIV/AIDS reporting were transiently significantly lower than expected throughout the pandemic period, but no significant periods of higher-than-expected reporting were detected. Syphilis showed widespread evidence of significantly lower-than-predicted reporting throughout 2020 but eventually reversed, showing significantly higher-than-predicted reporting in mid-to-late 2021. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with variable changes in the reporting of STIs in Japan. Higher-than-predicted reporting was more likely to be observed in the later phases of the pandemic. These changes may have been attributable to pandemic-related changes in sexual behaviour and decreased STI clinic attendance and testing, but further research on the long-term impact of the pandemic on STIs is necessary.

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and state of emergency declarations on the relative incidence of legionellosis and invasive pneumococcal disease in Japan.

INTRODUCTION: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the incidence of many droplet-transmitted infections decreased due to increased mask-wearing and social distancing. Contrastingly, there has been concern that COVID-19 countermeasures, such as lockdowns, may increase legionellosis incidence via water stagnation. During the pandemic in Japan, four state of emergency declarations were imposed between 2020 and 2021, which makes it particularly suitable to test this hypothesis. METHODS: We use country-level surveillance data from the National Institute of Infectious Diseases to track the relative incidence of legionellosis compared to invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, with a focus on the periods just after state of emergency declarations were lifted. RESULTS: The absolute number of legionellosis and IPD cases decreased in 2020 and 2021 compared to previous years. The average relative incidence of legionellosis as well as the variance of the relative incidence significantly increased during the pandemic compared to previous years. There were no increases in the relative incidence of legionellosis during the periods immediately following emergency declaration liftings, but the relative incidence did increase considerably during the first two states of emergency. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 countermeasures appear more effective at decreasing the incidence of human-to-human transmitted infections, such as IPD, compared to environmentally-transmitted infections, such as legionellosis. Though no evidence was found to suggest that legionellosis cases increased after state of emergency declarations, public health efforts should continue to emphasize the importance of routine sanitation and water system maintenance to prevent water stagnation and Legionella spp. contamination.

Salt intake reduction using umami substance-incorporated food: a secondary analysis of NHANES 2017-2018 data.

OBJECTIVE: Excessive salt intake raises blood pressure and increases the risk of non-communicable diseases (NCD), such as CVD, chronic kidney disease and stomach cancer. Reducing the Na content of food is an important public health measure to control the NCD. This study quantifies the amount of salt reduced by using umami substances, i.e. glutamate, inosinate and guanylate, for adults in the USA. DESIGN: The secondary data analysis was performed using data of the US nationally representative cross-sectional dietary survey, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2017-2018. Per capita daily salt intake corresponding to the NHANES food groups was calculated in the four hypothetical scenarios of 0 %, 30 %, 60 % and 90 % market share of low-Na foods in the country. The salt reduction rates by using umami substances were estimated based on the previous study results. SETTING: The USA. PARTICIPANTS: 4139 individuals aged 20 years and older in the USA. RESULTS: Replacing salt with umami substances could help the US adults reduce salt intake by 7·31-13·53 % (7·50-13·61 % for women and 7·18-13·53 % for men), which is equivalent to 0·61-1·13 g/d (0·54-0·98 g/d for women and 0·69-1·30 g/d for men) without compromising the taste. Approximately, 21·21-26·04 % of the US adults could keep their salt intake below 5 g/d, the WHO's recommendation in the scenario where there is no low-Na product on the market. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides essential information that the use of umami substances as a substitute for salt may help reduce the US adults' salt intake.

Effect of the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games on COVID-19 incidence in Japan: a synthetic control approach.

BACKGROUND: The Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games (23 July-8 August 2021) were held in the middle of Japan's fifth wave of COVID-19, when the number of cases was on the rise, and coincided with the fourth state of emergency implemented by the host city, Tokyo. AIM: This study aimed to assess whether the hosting of the Games was associated with a change in the number of COVID-19 cases in Japan using a synthetic control method. METHODS: A weighted average of control countries with a variety of predictors was used to estimate the counterfactual trajectory of daily COVID-19 cases per 1 000 000 population in the absence of the Games in Japan. Outcome and predictor data were extracted using official and open sources spanning several countries. The predictors comprise the most recent country-level annual or daily data accessible during the Games, including the stringency of the government's COVID-19 response, testing capacity and vaccination capacity; human mobility index; electoral democracy index and demographic, socioeconomic, health and weather information. After excluding countries with missing data, 42 countries were ultimately used as control countries. RESULTS: The number of observed cases per 1 000 000 population on the last day of the Games was 109.2 (7-day average), which was 115.7% higher than the counterfactual trajectory comprising 51.0 confirmed cases per 1 000 000 population. During the Olympic period (since 23 July), the observed cumulative number of cases was 61.0% higher than the counterfactual trajectory, comprising 143 072 and 89 210 confirmed cases (p=0.023), respectively. The counterfactual trajectory lagged 10 days behind the observed trends. CONCLUSIONS: Given the increasing likelihood that new emerging infectious diseases will be reported in the future, we believe that the results of this study should serve as a sentinel warning for upcoming mega-events during COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Excess deaths from non-COVID-19-related causes in Japan and 47 prefectures from January 2020 through May 2021 by place of death.

Excess deaths, including all-causes mortality, were confirmed for the first time in Japan in April 2021. However, little is known about the indirect effects of COVID-19 on the number of non-COVID-19-related deaths. We then estimated the excess deaths from non-COVID-19-related causes in Japan and its 47 prefectures from January 2020 through May 2021 by place of death. Vital statistical data on deaths were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Using quasi-Poisson regression models, we estimated the expected weekly number of deaths due to all-causes excluding COVID-19 (non-COVID-19) and due to respiratory disease, circulatory disease, malignant neoplasms, and senility. Estimates were made separately for deaths in all locations, as well as for deaths in hospitals and clinics, in nursing homes and elderly care facilities, and at home. We defined a week with excess deaths as one in which the observed number of deaths exceeded the upper bound of the two-sided 95% prediction interval. Excess death was expressed as a range of differences between the observed and expected number of deaths and the 95% upper bound of the two-sided predictive interval. The excess percentage was calculated as the number of excess deaths divided by the expected number of deaths. At the national level, excess deaths from non-COVID-19-related all-causes were observed during April 19 to May 16, 2021. The largest excess percentage was 2.73-8.58% (excess deaths 689-2161) in the week of May 3-9. Similar trends were observed for all four cause categories. The cause-of-death categories which contributed to the excesses showed heterogeneity among prefectures. When stratified by place of death, excess mortality tended to be observed in nursing homes and elderly care facilities for all categories, in hospitals and clinics for circulatory disease, and at home for respiratory disease, malignant neoplasms, and senility. A caution is necessary that for the lastest three months (March-May 2021), adjusted data were used to account for possible reporting delays.

Inter-prefectural Travel and Network Connectedness During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Increases in human mobility have been linked to rises in novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission. The pandemic era in Japan has been characterized by changes in inter-prefectural mobility across state of emergency (SOE) declarations and travel campaigns, but they have yet to be characterized. METHODS: Using Yahoo Japan mobility data extracted from the smartphones of more than 10 million Japanese residents, we calculated the monthly number of inter-prefectural travel instances, stratified by residential prefecture and destination prefecture. We then used this adjacency matrix to calculate two network connectedness metrics, closeness centrality and effective distance, that reliably predict disease transmission. RESULTS: Inter-prefectural mobility and network connectedness decreased most considerably during the first SOE, but this decrease dampened with each successive SOE. Mobility and network connectedness increased during the Go To Travel campaign. Travel volume between distant prefectures decreased more than travel between prefectures with geographic proximity. Closeness centrality was found to be negatively correlated with the rate of COVID-19 infection across prefectures, with the strength of this association increasing in tandem with the infection rate. Changes in effective distance were more visible among geographically isolated prefectures (Hokkaido and Okinawa) than among metropolitan, central prefectures (Tokyo, Aichi, Osaka, and Fukuoka). CONCLUSION: The magnitude of reductions in human mobility decreased with each subsequent state of emergency, consistent with pandemic fatigue. The association between network connectedness and rates of COVID-19 infection remained visible throughout the entirety of the pandemic period, suggesting that inter-prefectural mobility may have contributed to disease spread.

Factors associated with reversals of COVID-19 vaccination willingness: Results from two longitudinal, national surveys in Japan 2021-2022.

Background: Research characterizing changes of heart with respect to vaccine intention is scarce, and very little research considers those who were initially vaccine willing but became hesitant. Here, we sought to assess the factors related to reversals of vaccine willingness. Methods: We conducted a longitudinal, national survey on vaccination intention among Japanese adults aged 20 years or older, with the first questionnaire performed in February-March 2021 (N = 30,053) and the follow-up in February 2022 (N = 19,195, response rate 63.9%). The study population comprised those who reported vaccine willingness in the first survey, with the outcome variable being development of vaccine hesitancy at follow-up. We performed a regression analysis of vaccination status using sociodemographic, health-related, psychologic/attitudinal, and information-related variables as predictors. We used the sparse group minimax concave penalty (MCP) to select the optimum group of covariates for the logistic regression. Findings: Of 11,118 (57.9%) respondents who previously expressed interest in vaccination, 10,684 (96.1%) and 434 (3.9%) were in the vaccine willing and hesitant groups, respectively. Several covariates were found to significantly predict vaccine hesitancy, including marital status, influenza vaccine history, COVID-19 infection/testing history, engagement in COVID-19 preventive measures, perceived risks/benefits of the COVID-19 vaccine, and attitudes regarding vaccination policies and norms. The use of certain information sources was also associated with vaccine hesitancy. Interpretation: Sociodemographic, health-related, psychologic/attitudinal, and information-related variables predicted the development of vaccine hesitancy among those with prior willingness. Most of these predictors were also associated with vaccination status. Funding: The present work was supported in part by a grant from the Kanagawa Prefectural Government of Japan and by AIST government subsidies.