Implications of the Eighth Joint National Committee Guidelines for the Management of High Blood Pressure for Aging Adults: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

The recent 2014 Evidence-Based Guideline for the Management of High Blood Pressure in Adults from the Eight Joint National Committee Panel may significantly affect the aging US population. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of black and white participants in Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities who participated in the fifth study visit (2011-2013). Sitting blood pressure was calculated from the average of 3 successive readings taken after a 5-minute rest. Currently, prescribed antihypertensive medications were recorded by reviewing medication containers brought to the visit. Blood pressure control was defined using both the Seventh and Eighth Joint National Committee thresholds. Of 6088 participants (mean age, 75.6 [range, 66-90] years, 58.4% women; 23.2% black), 54.9% had either diabetes mellitus or chronic kidney disease. The prevalence of hypertension according to Seventh Joint National Committee thresholds was 81.9%, and 62.8% of the entire sample were at blood pressure goal. Using the Eighth Joint National Committee thresholds, 79.4% were at blood pressure goal (16.6% were reclassified as at-goal). Reclassification was higher for individuals with diabetes mellitus or chronic kidney disease (20.6%) when compared with individuals without either condition (11.6%). The use of antihypertensive medications in our cohort was high, with 75.0% prescribed at least 1 antihypertensive medication and 46.7% on ≥2 antihypertensive agents. In conclusion, in a US cohort of aging white and black individuals, ≈1 in 6 individuals were reclassified as having blood pressure at goal by Eighth Joint National Committee guidelines. Despite these less aggressive goals, >20% remain uncontrolled by the new criteria.

Obesity related risk of sudden cardiac death in the atherosclerosis risk in communities study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist hip ratio (WHR) with sudden cardiac death (SCD) in community dwelling individuals. METHODS: Data from a multicentre, prospective, cohort study of 14 941 men and women (African American, and white), aged 45-64 years, participating in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study was analysed. Obesity measures were assessed at baseline (1987-1989). SCD was adjudicated by a committee. RESULTS: At enrolment mean±SD age of the participants was 54±6 years (55% female; 26% African American). During 12.6±2.5 years of follow-up, 253 SCD occurred (incidence rate 1.34/100 person-years). The association between obesity and SCD differed by smoking status (interaction p≤0.01). In models adjusting for age, sex, race, study centre and education level, SCD risk was positively associated (p<0.001) with BMI, WC and WHR in non-smokers, but not in smokers. WHR was more strongly associated with SCD in non-smokers than was BMI or WC (HR per SD increment (95% CI) 2.00 (1.65 to 2.42); 1.34 (1.15 to 1.56) and 1.49 (1.28 to 1.74), respectively). After adjustment for potential mediators (hypertension, diabetes, lipid profile, prevalent coronary heart disease, heart failure, and LV hypertrophy), non-smokers in the highest WHR category (>0.95 in women; >1.01 in men) had double the risk of SCD (HR 2.03, 95% CI 1.19 to 3.46; incidence rate 1.43/1000 person-years) versus those with normal WHR. CONCLUSIONS: General obesity is associated with increased risk of SCD in middle-aged, non-smoking individuals, mediated by traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Central obesity, however, is independently associated with SCD by pathways that remain to be elucidated.

Echocardiographic measures of cardiac structure and function are associated with risk of atrial fibrillation in blacks: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have examined the link between atrial fibrillation (AF) and various echocardiographic measures of cardiac structure and function in whites and other racial groups but not in blacks. Exploring AF risk factors in blacks is important given that the lower incidence of AF in this racial group despite higher risk factors, is not completely explained. METHODS: We examined the association of echocardiographic measures with AF incidence in 2283 blacks (64.5% women, mean age 58.8 years) free of diagnosed AF and enrolled in the Jackson cohort of Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, a prospective study of cardiovascular disease. Echocardiography was performed in 1993-1995, and incident AF was determined by electrocardiograms at a follow-up study exam, hospitalization discharge codes and death certificates through the end of 2009. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for AF associated with the echocardiographic measures, adjusting for age, sex, and known AF risk factors. RESULTS: During an average follow-up of 13.5 years, 191 (8.4%) individuals developed AF. Left ventricular (LV) internal diameter 2-D (diastole) and percent fractional shortening of LV diameter displayed a U-shaped relationship with risk of AF, while left atrial diameter displayed a J-shaped nonlinear association. LV mass index was associated positively with AF. E/A ratio <0.7 or >1.5 and ejection fraction (EF <50%) were also associated with higher AF risk. These measures improved risk stratification for AF in addition to traditional risk factors, although not significantly {C-statistic of 0.767 (0.714-0.819) vs. 0.744 (0.691-0.797)}. CONCLUSIONS: In a community-based population of blacks, echocardiographic measures of cardiac structure and function are significantly associated with an increased risk of AF.

Association of sick sinus syndrome with incident cardiovascular disease and mortality: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study and Cardiovascular Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Sick sinus syndrome (SSS) is a common indication for pacemaker implantation. Limited information exists on the association of sick sinus syndrome (SSS) with mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population. METHODS: We studied 19,893 men and women age 45 and older in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study and the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), two community-based cohorts, who were without a pacemaker or atrial fibrillation (AF) at baseline. Incident SSS cases were validated by review of medical charts. Incident CVD and mortality were ascertained using standardized protocols. Multivariable Cox models were used to estimate the association of incident SSS with selected outcomes. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 17 years, 213 incident SSS events were identified and validated (incidence, 0.6 events per 1,000 person-years). After adjustment for confounders, SSS incidence was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14-1.70), coronary heart disease (HR 1.72, 95%CI 1.11-2.66), heart failure (HR 2.87, 95%CI 2.17-3.80), stroke (HR 1.56, 95%CI 0.99-2.46), AF (HR 5.75, 95%CI 4.43-7.46), and pacemaker implantation (HR 53.7, 95%CI 42.9-67.2). After additional adjustment for other incident CVD during follow-up, SSS was no longer associated with increased mortality, coronary heart disease, or stroke, but remained associated with higher risk of heart failure (HR 2.00, 95%CI 1.51-2.66), AF (HR 4.25, 95%CI 3.28-5.51), and pacemaker implantation (HR 25.2, 95%CI 19.8-32.1). CONCLUSION: Individuals who develop SSS are at increased risk of death and CVD. The mechanisms underlying these associations warrant further investigation.

Socioeconomic status and the incidence of atrial fibrillation in whites and blacks: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

BACKGROUND: No previous studies have examined the interplay among socioeconomic status, sex, and race with the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS AND RESULTS: We prospectively followed 14 352 persons (25% black, 75% white, 55% women, mean age 54 years) who were free of AF and participating in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. Socioeconomic status was assessed at baseline (1987-1989) through educational level and total family income. Incident AF through 2009 was ascertained from electrocardiograms, hospitalizations, and death certificates. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs of AF for education and family income. Interactions were tested between socioeconomic status and age, race, or sex. Over a median follow-up of 20.6 years, 1794 AF cases occurred. Lower family income was associated with higher AF risk (hazard ratio 1.45, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.67 in those with income less than $25 000 per year compared with those with $50 000 or more per year). The association between education and AF risk varied by sex (P=0.01), with the lowest education group associated with higher AF risk in women (hazard ratio 1.88, 95% CI 1.55 to 2.28) but not in men (hazard ratio 1.15, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.36) compared with the highest education group. Adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors attenuated the associations. There were no interactions with race or age. Blacks had lower AF risk than whites in all income and education groups. CONCLUSIONS: Lower family income was associated with a higher AF risk overall, whereas the impact of education on AF risk was present only in women. Differences in socioeconomic status do not explain the lower risk of AF in blacks compared with whites.

Atrial fibrillation and cognitive decline-the role of subclinical cerebral infarcts: the atherosclerosis risk in communities study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The mechanism underlying the association of atrial fibrillation (AF) with cognitive decline in stroke-free individuals is unclear. We examined the association of incident AF with cognitive decline in stroke-free individuals, stratified by subclinical cerebral infarcts (SCIs) on brain MRI scans. METHODS: We analyzed data from 935 stroke-free participants (mean age±SD, 61.5±4.3 years; 62% women; and 51% black) from 1993 to 1995 through 2004 to 2006 in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, a biracial community-based prospective cohort study. Cognitive testing (including the digit symbol substitution and the word fluency tests) was performed in 1993 to 1995, 1996 to 1998, and 2004 to 2006 and brain MRI scans in 1993 to 1995 and 2004 to 2006. RESULTS: During follow-up, there were 48 incident AF events. Incident AF was associated with greater annual average rate of decline in digit symbol substitution (-0.77; 95% confidence interval, -1.55 to 0.01; P=0.054) and word fluency (-0.80; 95% confidence interval, -1.60 to -0.01; P=0.048). Among participants without SCIs on brain MRI scans, incident AF was not associated with cognitive decline. In contrast, incident AF was associated with greater annual average rate of decline in word fluency (-2.65; 95% confidence interval, -4.26 to -1.03; P=0.002) among participants with prevalent SCIs in 1993 to 1995. Among participants who developed SCIs during follow-up, incident AF was associated with a greater annual average rate of decline in digit symbol substitution (-1.51; 95% confidence interval, -3.02 to -0.01; P=0.049). CONCLUSIONS: The association of incident AF with cognitive decline in stroke-free individuals can be explained by the presence or development of SCIs, raising the possibility of anticoagulation as a strategy to prevent cognitive decline in AF.

Birth weight and the risk of atrial fibrillation in whites and African Americans: the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities (ARIC) study.

BACKGROUND: Low birth weight (LBW) has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). A previous study, however, found higher risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in individuals with higher birth weight (BW). To further understand this apparent paradox, we examined the relationship between AF and BW in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort. METHODS: The analysis included 10,132 individuals free of AF at baseline (1996-1998), who provided BW information, were not born premature, and were not a twin. Self-reported BW was categorized as low (<2.5 kg), medium (2.5-4 kg), and high (>4.0 kg). AF incidence was ascertained from hospital discharge codes and death certificates. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to determine the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of AF across BW groups. RESULTS: During an average follow-up of 10.3 years, we identified 882 incident AF cases. LBW was associated with higher risk of AF. Compared to individuals in the medium BW category, the HR (95% CI) of AF was 1.33 (0.99, 1.78) for LBW and 1.00 (0.81, 1.24) for high BW after adjusting for sociodemographic variables (p for trend = 0.29). Additional adjustment for CVD risk factors did not attenuate the associations (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.06, 1.90 for LBW and HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.69-1.07 for high BW, compared to medium BW, p for trend = 0.01). CONCLUSION: LBW was associated with a higher risk of AF. This association was independent of known predictors of AF and is consistent with that observed for other cardiovascular diseases.

Height and risk of sudden cardiac death: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities and Cardiovascular Health studies.

PURPOSE: Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is an important cause of mortality in the adult population. Height has been associated with cardiac hypertrophy and an increased risk of arrhythmias but also with decreased risk of coronary heart disease, suggesting a complex association with SCD. METHODS: We examined the association of adult height with the risk of physician-adjudicated SCD in two large population-based cohorts: the Cardiovascular Health Study and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. RESULTS: Over an average follow-up time of 11.7 years in Cardiovascular Health Study, there were 199 (3.6%) cases of SCD among 5556 participants. In Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, over 12.6 years, there were 227 (1.5%) cases of SCD among 15,633 participants. In both cohorts, there was a trend toward decreased SCD with taller height. In fixed effects meta-analysis, the pooled hazard ratio per 10 cm of height was 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.98; P = .03. The association of increased height with lower risk of SCD was slightly attenuated after inclusion of risk factors associated with height, such as hypertension and left ventricular hypertrophy. The association appeared stronger among men than women in both cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: In two population-based prospective cohorts of different ages, greater height was associated with lower risk of SCD.

Novel association between plasma matrix metalloproteinase-9 and risk of incident atrial fibrillation in a case-cohort study: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

BACKGROUND: Previous cross-sectional studies have suggested that biomarkers of extracellular matrix remodelling are associated with atrial fibrillation (AF), but no prospective data have yet been published. Hence, we examine whether plasma matrix metalloproteinases (MMP) and their inhibitors are related to increased risk of incident AF. METHODS: We used a case-cohort design in the context of the prospective Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. From 13718 eligible men and women free from AF in 1990-92, we selected a stratified random sample of 500 individuals without and 580 with incident AF over a mean follow-up of 11.8 years. Using a weighted proportional hazards regression model, the relationships between MMP-1, MMP-2, MMP-9, tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinase (TIMP)-1, TIMP-2 and C-terminal propeptide of collagen type-I with incident AF were examined after adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: In models adjusted for age, sex and race, all biomarkers were associated with AF, but only the relationship between plasma MMP-9 remained significant in the fully-adjusted model: each one standard deviation increase in MMP-9 was associated with 27% (95% Confidence Interval: 7% to 50%) increase in risk of AF with no evidence of an interaction with race or sex. Individuals with above mean levels of MMP-9 were more likely to be male, white and current smokers. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that elevated levels of MMP-9 are independently associated with increased risk of AF. However, given the lack of specificity of MMP-9 to atrial tissue, it remains to be determined whether the observed relationship reflects the impact of atrial fibrosis or more generalized fibrosis on risk of incident AF.

Atrial fibrillation and the risk of sudden cardiac death: the atherosclerosis risk in communities study and cardiovascular health study.

BACKGROUND: It is unknown whether atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in the general population. This association was examined in 2 population-based cohorts. METHODS: In the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, we analyzed data from 15 439 participants (baseline age, 45-64 years; 55.2% women; and 26.6% black) from baseline (1987-1989) through December 31, 2001. In the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), we analyzed data from 5479 participants (baseline age, ≥65 years; 58.2% women; and 15.4% black) from baseline (first cohort, 1989-1990; second cohort, 1992-1993) through December 31, 2006. The main outcome was physician-adjudicated SCD, defined as death from a sudden, pulseless condition presumed to be due to a ventricular tachyarrhythmia. The secondary outcome was non-SCD (NSCD), defined as coronary heart disease death not meeting SCD criteria. We used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the association between AF and SCD/NSCD, adjusting for baseline demographic and cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: In the ARIC Study, 894 AF, 269 SCD, and 233 NSCD events occurred during follow-up (median, 13.1 years). The crude incidence rates of SCD were 2.89 per 1000 person-years (with AF) and 1.30 per 1000 person-years (without AF). The multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CIs) of AF for SCD and NSCD were 3.26 (2.17-4.91) and 2.43 (1.60-3.71), respectively. In the CHS, 1458 AF, 292 SCD, and 581 NSCD events occurred during follow-up (median, 13.1 years). The crude incidence rates of SCD were 12.00 per 1000 person-years (with AF) and 3.82 per 1000 person-years (without AF). The multivariable HRs (95% CIs) of AF for SCD and NSCD were 2.14 (1.60-2.87) and 3.10 (2.58-3.72), respectively. The meta-analyzed HRs (95% CIs) of AF for SCD and NSCD were 2.47 (1.95-3.13) and 2.98 (2.52-3.53), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Incident AF is associated with an increased risk of SCD and NSCD in the general population. Additional research to identify predictors of SCD in patients with AF is warranted.

Relation of serum phosphorus levels to the incidence of atrial fibrillation (from the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities [ARIC] study).

High serum phosphorus levels have been linked with vascular calcification and greater cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. We assessed whether serum phosphorus was associated with the atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence in a large community-based cohort in the United States. Our analysis included 14,675 participants (25% black, 45% men) free of AF at baseline (1987 to 1989) and with measurements of fasting serum phosphorus from the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities (ARIC) study. The incidence of AF was ascertained through the end of 2008 from study visit electrocardiograms, hospitalizations, and death certificates. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratios of AF by the serum phosphorus levels, adjusting for potential confounders. During a median follow-up of 19.7 years, we identified 1,656 incident AF cases. Greater serum phosphorus was associated with a greater AF risk: the hazard ratio of AF with a 1-mg/dl increase in serum phosphorus was 1.13 (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.26). No significant interaction was seen by race (p = 0.88) or gender (p = 0.51). The risk of AF was increased in association with greater serum phosphorus in those with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of ≥90 ml/min/1.72 m(2) but not among those with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of <90 ml/min/1.72 m(2). The total corrected calcium levels were not related to AF risk; however, greater levels of the calcium-phosphorus product were associated with greater AF risk. In conclusion, in the present large population-based study, greater levels of serum phosphorus and the related calcium-phosphorus product were associated with a greater incidence of AF.

Serum and dietary magnesium and incidence of atrial fibrillation in whites and in African Americans--Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

BACKGROUND: Low serum magnesium (Mg) has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), including ventricular arrhythmias, but the association between serum or dietary Mg and atrial fibrillation (AF) has not been investigated. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 14,290 men and women (75% white; 53% female; mean age, 54 years) free of AF at baseline participating in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study in the United States, were studied. Incident AF cases through 2009 were ascertained from electrocardiograms, hospital discharge codes, and death certificates. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for AF associated with serum and dietary Mg quintiles. Over a median follow-up time of 20.6 years, 1,755 incident AF cases were identified. In multivariate models, lower serum Mg was associated with higher AF risk: compared to individuals in the middle quintile (≥ 0.80-0.83 mmol/L), the HR (95% CI) of AF in quintiles 1, 2, 4, and 5 were 1.34 (1.16-1.54), 0.99 (0.85-1.16), 1.04 (0.90-1.22), and 1.06 (0.91-1.23), respectively. There was no evidence of significant interactions between serum Mg and sex or race. No association between dietary Mg and AF risk was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Lower serum Mg was associated with a higher AF risk, and this association was not different between whites and African Americans. Dietary Mg was not associated with AF risk.

Blood lipid levels, lipid-lowering medications, and the incidence of atrial fibrillation: the atherosclerosis risk in communities study.

BACKGROUND: Several cardiovascular risk factors have been associated with the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). Limited and inconsistent evidence exists on the association of blood lipid levels and lipid-lowering medication use with AF risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed 13 969 participants (25% African American, 45% men) free of AF at baseline from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. Fasting high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLc), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLc), triglycerides, and total cholesterol were measured at baseline (1987-1989) and each of 3 follow-up visits. The incidence of AF was ascertained through 2007. The association of the use of statins and other lipid-lowering medications with AF was estimated in 13 044 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities participants attending visit 2 (1990-1992), adjusting for covariates from the previous visit. During a median follow-up of 18.7 years, there were 1433 incident AF cases. Multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs of AF associated with a 1-SD increase in lipid levels were as follows: HDLc, 0.97 (0.91-1.04); LDLc, 0.90 (0.85-0.96); total cholesterol, 0.89 (0.84-0.95); and triglycerides, 1.00 (0.96-1.04). Participants taking lipid-lowering medications had an adjusted HR (95% CI) of AF of 0.96 (0.82-1.13) compared with those not taking medications, whereas those taking statins had an adjusted HR of 0.91 (0.66-1.25) compared with those taking other lipid-lowering medications. CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of LDLc and total cholesterol were associated with a lower incidence of AF. However, HDLc and triglycerides were not independently associated with AF incidence. No association was found between the use of lipid-lowering medications and incident AF.

Usefulness of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein to predict mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation (from the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities [ARIC] Study).

High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) is a marker for the risk of cardiovascular and overall mortality. However, information about the association between hs-CRP and mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation is scarce. A total of 293 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities study with a history of AF and hs-CRP levels available were studied. During a median follow-up of 9.4 years, 134 participants died (46%). The hazard ratio of all-cause mortality associated with the highest versus the lowest tertile of hs-CRP was 2.52 (95% confidence interval 1.49 to 4.25) after adjusting for age, gender, history of cardiovascular diseases, and cardiovascular risk factors. A similar trend was observed for cardiovascular mortality (57 events; hazard ratio 1.90, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 4.45). The Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age >75 years, Diabetes, and previous Stroke or transient ischemic attack (CHADS2) score was also associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 3.39 (95% confidence interval 1.91 to 6.01) and 8.71 (95% confidence interval 2.98 to 25.47), respectively, comparing those with a CHADS2 score >2 versus a CHADS2 score of 0. Adding hs-CRP to a predictive model including the CHADS2 score was associated with an improvement of the C-statistic for total mortality (from 0.627 to 0.677) and for cardiovascular mortality (from 0.700 to 0.718). In conclusion, high levels of hs-CRP constitute an independent marker for the risk of mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation.

P wave indices, obesity, and the metabolic syndrome: the atherosclerosis risk in communities study.

Atrial fibrillation and obesity are increasing in prevalence and are interrelated epidemics. There has been limited assessment of how obesity and the metabolic syndrome impact P wave indices, established electrocardiographic predictors of atrial fibrillation. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis to determine the association of obesity and the components of the metabolic syndrome with P wave indices in the population-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. Analyses were adjusted for demographic, anthropometric and clinical variables, and cardiovascular diseases and risk factors. Following relevant exclusions, 14,433 subjects were included (55% women and 24.7% black). In multivariable analyses, we identified significant, progressive increases in PR interval, P wave maximum duration, and P wave terminal force with BMI 25-30 kg/m(2) and BMI ≥30 kg/m(2) compared to the reference group <25 kg/m(2) (P < 0.0001 for trend for all P wave indices). These effects were present in both blacks and whites. Presence of metabolic syndrome was also associated with longer P wave indices. When components of the metabolic syndrome were examined separately, hypertension resulted in significant (P < 0.001) augmentation of the three P wave indices. Similarly, waist circumference was associated with greater P wave maximum duration in both races (P < 0.001). We concluded that P wave indices are significantly associated with obesity and particularly with hypertension and waist circumference. P wave indices may comprise intermediate markers, independent of age and cardiovascular risk, of the pathway linking obesity and with the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF).

Type 2 diabetes, glucose homeostasis and incident atrial fibrillation: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes has been inconsistently associated with the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in previous studies that have frequently been beset by methodological challenges. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. PARTICIPANTS: Detailed medical histories were obtained from 13 025 participants. Individuals were categorised as having no diabetes, pre-diabetes or diabetes based on the 2010 American Diabetes Association criteria at study baseline (1990-2). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Diagnoses of incident AF were obtained to the end of 2007. Associations between type 2 diabetes and markers of glucose homeostasis and the incidence of AF were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models after adjusting for possible confounders. RESULTS: Type 2 diabetes was associated with a significant increase in the risk of AF (HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.60) after adjustment for confounders. There was no indication that individuals with pre-diabetes or those with undiagnosed diabetes were at increased risk of AF compared with those without diabetes. A positive linear association was observed between HbA1c and the risk of AF in those with and without diabetes (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.20) and HR 1.05, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.15 per 1% point increase, respectively). There was no association between fasting glucose or insulin in those without diabetes, but a significant association with fasting glucose was found in those with the condition. The results were similar in white subjects and African-Americans. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes, HbA1c level and poor glycaemic control are independently associated with an increased risk of AF, but the underlying mechanisms governing the relationship are unknown and warrant further investigation.

Chronic kidney disease is associated with the incidence of atrial fibrillation: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease is associated with the incidence of cardiovascular disease. Chronic kidney disease may also increase the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF), but existing studies have reported inconsistent results. METHODS AND RESULTS: We estimated cystatin C-based glomerular filtration rate (eGFR(cys)) and measured urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) in 10 328 men and women free of AF from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study in 1996 to 1998. Incidence of AF was ascertained through the end of 2007. During a median follow-up of 10.1 years, we identified 788 incident AF cases. Compared with individuals with eGFR(cys) ≥90 mL · min(-1) · 1.73 m(-2), multivariable hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of AF were 1.3 (95% CI, 1.1 to 1.6), 1.6 (95% CI, 1.3 to 2.1), and 3.2 (95% CI, 2.0 to 5.0; P for trend <0.0001) in those with eGFR(cys) of 60 to 89, 30 to 59, and 15 to 29 mL · min(-1) · 1.73 m(-2), respectively. Similarly, the presence of macroalbuminuria (ACR ≥300 mg/g; hazard ratio, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.3 to 4.5) and microalbuminuria (ACR, 30 to 299 mg/g; hazard ratio, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.6 to 2.4) was associated with higher AF risk compared with those with ACR <30 mg/g. Risk of AF was particularly elevated in those with both low eGFR(cys) and macroalbuminuria (hazard ratio, 13.1; 95% CI, 6.0 to 28.6, comparing individuals with ACR ≥300 mg/g and eGFR(cys) of 15 to 29 mL · min(-1) · 1.73 m(-2) and those with ACR <30 mg/g and eGFR(cys) ≥90 mL · min(-1) · 1.73 m(-2)). CONCLUSION: In this large population-based study, reduced kidney function and presence of albuminuria were strongly associated with the incidence of AF independently of other risk factors.

Absolute and attributable risks of atrial fibrillation in relation to optimal and borderline risk factors: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an important risk factor for stroke and overall mortality, but information about the preventable burden of AF is lacking. The aim of this study was to determine what proportion of the burden of AF in blacks and whites could theoretically be avoided by the maintenance of an optimal risk profile. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study included 14 598 middle-aged Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study cohort members. Previously established AF risk factors, namely high blood pressure, elevated body mass index, diabetes mellitus, cigarette smoking, and prior cardiac disease, were categorized into optimal, borderline, and elevated levels. On the basis of their risk factor levels, individuals were classified into 1 of these 3 groups. The population-attributable fraction of AF resulting from having a nonoptimal risk profile was estimated separately for black and white men and women. During a mean follow-up of 17.1 years, 1520 cases of incident AF were identified. The age-adjusted incidence rates were highest in white men and lowest in black women (7.45 and 3.67 per 1000 person-years, respectively). The overall prevalence of an optimal risk profile was 5.4% but varied according to race and gender: 10% in white women versus 1.6% in black men. Overall, 56.5% of AF cases could be explained by having ≥ 1 borderline or elevated risk factors, of which elevated blood pressure was the most important contributor. CONCLUSION: As with other forms of cardiovascular disease, more than half of the AF burden is potentially avoidable through the optimization of cardiovascular risk factors levels.

Cardiac overexpression of insulin-like growth factor 1 attenuates chronic alcohol intake-induced myocardial contractile dysfunction but not hypertrophy: Roles of Akt, mTOR, GSK3beta, and PTEN.

Chronic alcohol intake leads to the development of alcoholic cardiomyopathy manifested by cardiac hypertrophy and contractile dysfunction. This study was designed to examine the effects of transgenic overexpression of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) on alcohol-induced cardiac contractile dysfunction. Wild-type FVB and cardiac-specific IGF-1 mice were placed on a 4% alcohol or control diet for 16weeks. Cardiac geometry and mechanical function were evaluated by echocardiography and cardiomyocyte and intracellular Ca(2+) properties. Histological analyses for cardiac fibrosis and apoptosis were evaluated by Masson trichrome staining and TUNEL assay, respectively. Expression and phosphorylation of Cu/Zn superoxide dismutase (SOD1), Ca(2+) handling proteins, and key signaling molecules for survival including Akt, mTOR, GSK3beta, Foxo3a, and the negative regulator of Akt, phosphatase and tensin homolog on chromosome 10 (PTEN), as well as mitochondrial proteins UCP-2 and PGC1alpha, were evaluated by Western blot analysis. Chronic alcohol intake led to cardiac hypertrophy, interstitial fibrosis, reduced mitochondrial number, compromised cardiac contractile function and intracellular Ca(2+) handling, decreased SOD1 expression, elevated superoxide production, and overt apoptosis, all of which, with the exception of cardiac hypertrophy, were abrogated by the IGF-1 transgene. Immunoblotting data showed reduced phosphorylation of Akt, mTOR, GSK3beta, and Foxo3a; upregulated Foxo3a and PTEN; and dampened SERCA2a, PGC1alpha, and UCP-2 after alcohol intake. All these alcohol-induced changes in survival and mitochondrial proteins were alleviated by IGF-1. Taken together, these data favor a beneficial role for IGF-1 in alcohol-induced myocardial contractile dysfunction independent of cardiac hypertrophy.