Short-term risk of cardiovascular events in people newly diagnosed with gout.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the temporal association between first diagnosis of gout and cardiovascular events in the short-term. METHODS: We performed a self-controlled case series analysis and a cohort study using data from linked primary care, hospitalisation, and mortality records from the UK's Clinical Practice Research Database (GOLD). We included individuals with a new diagnosis of gout either in the primary care or secondary care between 01/01/1997 and 31/12/2020. The first consultation at which gout was diagnosed was the exposure of interest. The main outcome consisted of cardiovascular events (i.e., a composite of fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, ischaemic or haemorrhagic stroke, and transient ischaemic attack). RESULTS: 4,398 patients (66.9% male, mean age 74.6 years) had a cardiovascular event within ±2 years of their first recorded diagnosis of gout. The incidence of cardiovascular events was significantly higher in the 30 days after the first diagnosis of gout compared to baseline (adjusted incidence rate ratio: 1.55 ((95% confidence interval) 95%CI: 1.33-1.83)). Among 76,440 patients (72.9% male, mean age 63.2 years) included in the cohort study, the incidence of cardiovascular events in the 30 days after the first gout diagnosis (31.2 events/1,000 person-years, 95%CI: 27.1-35.9) was significantly higher than in days 31-730 after gout diagnosis (21.6 events/1,000 person-years, 95%CI:20.8-22.4) with a rate difference of -9.6 events/1,000 person-years, 95%CI: -14.0 to -5.1). CONCLUSION: Individuals had a short-term increased risk of cardiovascular events in the 30 days following the first consultation at which gout was diagnosed.

Temporal Trends of Infant Mortality Secondary to Congenital Heart Disease: National CDC Cohort Analysis (1999-2020).

BACKGROUND: Infant mortality continues to be a significant problem for patients with congenital heart disease (CHD). Limited data exist on the recent trends of mortality in infants with CHD. METHODS: The CDC WONDER (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research) was queried to identify deaths occurring within the United States with CHD listed as one of the causes of death between 1999 and 2020. Subsequently, trends were calculated using the Joinpoint regression program (version 4.9.1.0; National Cancer Institute). RESULTS: A total of 47,015 deaths occurred in infants due to CHD at the national level from the year 1999 to 2020. The overall proportional infant mortality (compared to all deaths) declined (47.3% to 37.1%, average annual percent change [AAPC]: -1.1 [95% CI -1.6 to -0.6, p < 0.001]). There was a significant decline in proportional mortality in both Black (45.3% to 34.3%, AAPC: -0.5 [-0.8 to -0.2, p = 0.002]) and White patients (55.6% to 48.6%, AAPC: -1.2 [-1.7 to -0.7, p = 0.001]), with a steeper decline among White than Black patients. A statistically significant decline in the proportional infant mortality in both non-Hispanic (43.3% to 33.0%, AAPC: -1.3% [95% CI -1.9 to -0.7, p < 0.001]) and Hispanic (67.6% to 57.7%, AAPC: -0.7 [95% CI -0.9 to -0.4, p < 0.001]) patients was observed, with a steeper decline among non-Hispanic infant population. The proportional infant mortality decreased in males (47.5% to 53.1%, AAPC: -1.4% [-1.9 to -0.9, p < 0.001]) and females (47.1% to 39.6%, AAPC: -0.9 [-1.9 to 0.0, p = 0.05]). A steady decline in for both females and males was noted. CONCLUSION: Our study showed a significant decrease in CHD-related mortality rate in infants and age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) between 1999 and 2020. However, sex-based, racial/ethnic disparities were noted, with female, Black, and Hispanic patients showing a lesser decline than male, White, and non-Hispanic patients.

The Intersection of Socioeconomic Differences and Sex in the Management and Outcomes of Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Nationwide Cohort Study.

Patients with lower socioeconomic status (SES) have poorer outcomes following acute myocardial infarction (AMI) than patients with higher SES; however, how sex modifies socioeconomic differences is unclear. Using the United Kingdom (UK) Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) registry, alongside Office of National Statistics (ONS) mortality data, we analyzed 736,420 AMI patients between 2005 and 2018, stratified by Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) score Quintiles (most affluent [Q1] to most deprived [Q5]). There was no significant difference in probability of in-hospital mortality in our adjusted model according to sex. The probability of 30-day mortality in our adjusted model was similar between men and women throughout Quintiles, ((Q5; Men 7.6%; 95% CI 7.3-7.8% (P < .001), Women; 7.0%; 95% CI 6.8-7.3%, P < .001)) ((Q1; Men 7.1%; 95% CI 6.8-7.4%, P < .001, Women; 6.9%; 95% CI 6.6-7.1%, P < .001)). The probability of one-year mortality in our adjusted model was higher in men throughout all Quintiles (Q1; Men 15.0%; 95% CI 14.8-15.6%), P < .001, Women; 14.5%; 95% CI 14.2-14.9%, P < .001) (Q5; Men 16.9%; 95% CI 16.5-17.3%, P < .001, Women; 15.5%; 95% CI 15.1-15.9 by %, P < .001). Overall, female sex did not significantly influence the effect of deprivation on AMI processes of care and outcomes.

Comparative analysis of cardiogenic shock outcomes in acute myocardial infarction with polyvascular disease.

Background: Cardiogenic shock (CS) is the leading cause of mortality in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients, especially in those with vascular disease. This study aimed to assess the association between extent of polyvascular disease and the in hospital management and outcome of patients with AMI-induced CS. Method: Using the National Inpatient Sample from 2016 to 2019, adult patients with AMI and CS with known vascular disease were identified and stratified by number of diseased vascular beds and into STEMI and NSTEMI subgroups. The study assessed in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE), mortality, acute CVA and major bleeding, as well as invasive management by number of diseased vascular beds. Results: Out of 136,245 patients, 57.9 % attributed to STEMI and 42.1 % to NSTEMI. The study revealed that the likelihood of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) [(aOR for 2 beds 0.94, CI 0.91-0.96, p-value < 0.001; 3 beds 1.0, CI 0.94-1.06, p-value 0.96)] and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) [(aOR for 2 beds 0.66, CI 0.64-0.69, p-value < 0.001; 3 beds 0.76, CI 0.71-0.81, p-value < 0.001)] decreased as the number of diseased vascular sites increased. The study also highlighted a direct dose-response relationship between the number of diseased vascular beds and major adverse outcomes, including MACCE, mortality and acute CVA, underscoring the prognostic significance of polyvascular disease in this patient population. Conclusion: The study demonstrated that polyvascular disease significantly worsens AMI-induced CS outcomes. The findings highlight the importance of early identification and aggressive management of polyvascular disease in these patients. Further research is needed to develop targeted treatment strategies for this high-risk population.

Post-COVID changes and disparities in cardiovascular mortality rates in the United States.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted healthcare delivery and increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. This study assesses whether cardiovascular mortality rates in the US have recovered post-pandemic and examines the equity of this recovery across different populations. Methods: We analyzed data from the CDC WONDER database, covering US residents' mortality from 2018-2023. We focused on cardiovascular diseases, categorized by ischemic heart disease (IHD), heart failure (HF), hypertensive diseases (HTN), and cerebrovascular disease. Age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated for three periods: pre-COVID (2018-2019), during COVID (2020-2021), and post-COVID (2022-2023), stratified by demographic and geographic variables. Results: Cardiovascular age-adjusted mortality rates increased by 5.9% during the pandemic but decreased by 3.4% post-pandemic, resulting in a net increase of 2.4% compared to pre-COVID levels. When compared to pre COVID age-adjusted mortality rates, post COVID IHD mortality age-adjusted mortality rates decreased by 5.0%, while cerebrovascular and HTN age-adjusted mortality rates increased by 5.9% and 28.5%, respectively. Men and younger populations showed higher increases in cardiovascular Age-adjusted mortality rates. Geographic disparities were notable, with significant reductions in cardiovascular mortality in the Northeast and increases in states like Arizona and Oregon. Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic led to a surge in cardiovascular mortality, with partial recovery post-pandemic. Significant differences in mortality changes highlight the need for targeted healthcare interventions to address inequities across demographic and geographic groups.

Global burden of cardiovascular diseases: projections from 2025 to 2050.

AIMS: The prediction of future trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and their risk factors can assist policy-makers in healthcare planning. This study aims to project geospatial trends in CVDs and their underlying risk factors from 2025 to 2050. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using historical data on mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study, encompassing the period of 1990 to 2019, Poisson regression was performed to model mortality and DALYs associated with CVD and its associated risk factors from 2025 to 2050. Subgroup analysis was based on GBD super-regions. Between 2025 and 2050, a 90.0% increase in cardiovascular prevalence, 73.4% increase in crude mortality, and 54.7% increase in crude DALYs are projected, with an expected 35.6 million cardiovascular deaths in 2050 (from 20.5 million in 2025). However, age-standardized cardiovascular prevalence will be relatively constant (-3.6%), with decreasing age-standardized mortality (-30.5%) and age-standardized DALYs (-29.6%). In 2050, ischaemic heart disease will remain the leading cause of cardiovascular deaths (20 million deaths) while high systolic blood pressure will be the main cardiovascular risk factor driving mortality (18.9 million deaths). Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia super-region is set to incur the highest age-standardized cardiovascular mortality rate in 2050 (305 deaths per 100 000 population). CONCLUSION: In the coming decades, the relatively constant age-standardized prevalence of global CVD suggests that the net effect of summative preventative efforts will likely continue to be unchanged. The fall in age-standardized cardiovascular mortality reflects the improvement in medical care following diagnosis. However, future healthcare systems can expect a rapid rise in crude cardiovascular mortality, driven by the ageing global populace. The continued rise in CVD burden will largely be attributed to atherosclerotic diseases. REGISTRATION: Not applicable.

The global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden is expected to rise in the next few decades, driven primarily by an ageing populace worldwide. When standardized by age and population, CVD prevalence is expected to remain relatively constant, while mortality is expected to fall. This suggests that the effects of primary prevention efforts are set to remain roughly constant, while worldwide treatment outcomes are anticipated to improve.High blood pressures, dietary risks, and high cholesterol are the predominant risk factors expected to drive cardiovascular diseases from 2025 to 2050. A high body-mass index is likely to see a rapid rise in certain regions. Effective region-specific interventions are vital to arrest the CVD trajectory.

In-hospital outcomes of ad hoc versus planned PCI for unprotected left-main disease: An analysis of 8574 cases from British Cardiovascular Intervention Society database 2006-2018.

BACKGROUND: Although data suggests ad hoc percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) results in similar patient outcomes compared to planned PCI in nonselected patients, data for ad hoc unprotected left main stem PCI (uLMS-PCI) are lacking. AIM: To determine if in-hospital outcomes of uLMS-PCI vary by ad hoc versus planned basis. METHODS: Data were analyzed from all patients undergoing uLMS-PCI in the United Kingdom 2006-2018, and patients grouped into uLMS-PCI undertaken on an ad hoc or a planned basis. Patients who presented with ST-segment elevation, cardiogenic shock, or with an emergency PCI indication were excluded. RESULTS: In total, 8574 uLMS-PCI procedures were undertaken with 2837 (33.1%) of procedures performed on an ad hoc basis. There was a lower likelihood of intervention for stable angina (28.8% vs. 53.8%, p < 0.001) and a higher rate of potent P2Y12 inhibitor use (16.4% vs. 12.1%, p < 0.001) in the ad hoc PCI group compared to the planned PCI group. Patients undergoing uLMS-PCI on an ad hoc basis tended to undergo less complex procedures. Acute procedural complications including slow flow (odds ratio [OR]: 1.70, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-2.86), coronary dissection (OR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.12-1.77) and shock induction (OR: 2.80, 95% CI: 1.64-4.78) were more likely in the ad hoc PCI group. In-hospital death (OR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.19-2.27) and in-hospital major adverse cardiac or cerebrovascular events (OR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.13-1.98) occurred more frequently in the ad hoc group. In sensitivity analyses, these observations did not differ when several subgroups were separately examined. CONCLUSIONS: Ad hoc PCI for uLMS disease is associated with adverse outcomes compared to planned PCI. These data should inform uLMS-PCI procedural planning.

Safety, efficacy, and optical coherence tomography insights into intravascular lithotripsy for the modification of non-eruptive calcified nodules: A prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Non-eruptive calcium nodules (CNs) are commonly seen in heavily calcified coronary artery disease. They are the most difficult subset for modification, and may result in stent damage, malapposition and under-expansion. There are only limited options available for non-eruptive CN modification. Intravascular lithotripsy (IVL) is being explored as a potentially safe and effective modality in these lesions. AIMS: This study aimed to investigate the safety and efficacy of the use of IVL for the modification of non-eruptive CNs. The study also explored the OCT features of calcium nodule modification by IVL. METHODS: This is a single-center, prospective, observational study in which patients with angiographic heavy calcification and non-eruptive CN on OCT and undergoing PCI were enrolled. The primary safety endpoint was freedom from perforation, no-reflow/slow flow, flow-limiting dissection after IVL therapy, and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) during hospitalization and at 30 days. MACE was defined as a composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction (MI), and ischemia-driven target lesion revascularization (TLR). The primary efficacy endpoint was procedural success, defined as residual diameter stenosis of <30% on angiography and stent expansion of more than 80% as assessed by OCT. RESULTS: A total of 21 patients with 54 non-eruptive CNs undergoing PCI were prospectively enrolled in the study. Before IVL, OCT revealed a mean calcium score of 3.7 ± 0.5 and a mean MLA at CN of 3.9 ± 2.1 mm2. Following IVL, OCT revealed calcium fractures in 40 out of 54 (74.1%) CNs with an average of 1.05 ± 0.72 fractures per CN. Fractures were predominantly observed at the base of the CN (80%). Post IVL, the mean MLA at CN increased to 4.9 ± 2.3 mm2. After PCI, the mean MSA at the CN was 7.9 ± 2.5 mm2. Optimal stent expansion (stent expansion >80%) at the CN was achieved in 85.71% of patients. All patients remained free from MACE during hospitalization and at the 30-day follow-up. At 1-year follow-up, all-cause death had occurred in 3 (14.3%) patients. CONCLUSIONS: This single-arm study demonstrated the safety, efficacy, and utility of the IVL in a subset of patients with non-eruptive calcified nodules. In this study, minimal procedural complications, excellent lesion modifications, and favorable 30-day and 1-year outcomes were observed.

Impact of Chronic Kidney Disease on the Processes of Care and Long-Term Mortality of Non-ST-Segment-Elevation Myocardial Infarction: A Nationwide Cohort Study and Long-Term Follow-Up.

BACKGROUND: A growing population of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) presents with non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, although little is known about their longer-term mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using the MINAP (Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project) registry, linked to Office for National Statistics mortality data, we analyzed 363 559 UK patients with non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, with or without CKD. Cox regression models were fitted, adjusting for baseline demographics. Compared with patients without CKD, patients with CKD were less frequently prescribed P2Y12 inhibitors (89% versus 86%, P<0.001) less likely to undergo invasive angiography (67% versus 41%, P<0.001) or percutaneous coronary intervention (41% versus 25%, P<0.001), and were less often referred to cardiac rehabilitation (80% versus 66%, P<0.001). Following non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, patients with CKD had higher risk of 30-day (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.24 [95% CI, 1.20-1.29], 1-year 1.47 [95% CI, 1.44-1.51]) and 5-year mortality 1.55 (95% CI, 1.53-1.58) than patients without CKD (all P<0.001). Risk of mortality over the entire study period was highest in CKD Stage 5 (HR, 2.98 [95% CI, 2.87-3.10]), even after excluding mortality ≤30 days (HR, 3.03 [95% CI, 2.90-3.17]) (P<0.001). There was no significant difference in proportion of deaths attributable to cardiovascular disease at 30 days (CKD; 76% versus no CKD; 76%), or 1 -year (CKD; 62% versus no CKD; 62%). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with CKD were significantly less likely to receive invasive investigation or undergo percutaneous coronary intervention and had significantly higher risk of short- and longer-term mortality. Risk of mortality increased with reducing CKD stage. Cardiovascular disease was the main cause of mortality in patients with CKD, but at comparable rates to the general population with non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction.

Dual vs triple antithrombotic therapy in atrial fibrillation and acute coronary syndrome: An updated meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Antithrombotic treatment in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) poses a dilemma. We compared outcomes of dual antithrombotic therapy (DAT) (direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs)/warfarin + antiplatelets) vs triple antithrombotic therapy (TAT) (DOACs/warfarin, aspirin, and P2Y12 inhibitor) in this population. Multiple databases were searched from inception to December 17, 2023 to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing DAT vs TAT in patients with AF and ACS. Outcomes included major adverse cardiac events (MACE), bleeding events, stroke, stent thrombosis, and myocardial infarction (MI). Relative risk and 95% confidence intervals were estimated with a random-effects model using the inverse-variance technique. We assigned I2 > 50% as an indicator of statistical heterogeneity. p-Value <0.05 was considered significant. Ten RCTs comprising 6186 patients on TAT (female 26%, mean age 71 ± 9 years) and 6800 patients on DAT (female 27%, mean age 71 ± 9 years) were included. Patients receiving DAT experienced lower rates of bleeding events compared to those receiving TAT, with relative risks of 0.69 [0.55-0.87] (p < 0.001), 0.65 [0.40-1.06] (p = 0.09), and 0.62 [0.46-0.84] (p < 0.001) for TAT durations of 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively. No difference was seen in the occurrence of MACE, MI, stroke, or stent thrombosis between DAT and TAT across all three durations of TAT. This is the largest pooled analysis comparing TAT to DAT stratified by the duration of antithrombotic therapy. Our results revealed that DAT was associated with reduced bleeding risk despite no difference in other outcomes.

Diabetes and Its Impact on Cardiogenic Shock Outcomes in Acute Myocardial Infarction with Polyvascular Disease: A Comparative Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) significantly impacts cardiovascular outcomes, particularly in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) complicated by cardiogenic shock (CS). The presence of polyvascular disease further complicates the prognosis due to the increased burden of atherosclerosis and comorbidities. This study was designed to investigate the combined impact of DM and polyvascular disease on outcomes in patients with AMI and CS. METHOD: Using the National Inpatient Sample database, we analyzed 39,140 patients with AMI complicated by CS and known polyvascular disease. The patients were stratified by diabetes status. The study assessed in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE), mortality, cerebrovascular accident (CVA) and major bleeding. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine the association between in-hospital outcomes and diabetes, adjusting for baseline differences. RESULTS: Of the study population, 54% had DM. The patients with DM were younger (69.5 vs. 72.1 years, p < 0.001) and more likely to be female (36.7% vs. 34.2%, p < 0.001). After adjustment, the patients with DM showed a 17% increased mortality risk (aOR 1.17, 95% CI: 1.11-1.23, p < 0.001) and a higher risk of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (aOR 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01-1.10, p = 0.020). CONCLUSIONS: DM significantly impacts outcomes in patients with AMI complicated by CS and polyvascular disease, leading to increased mortality risk, longer hospital stays, and higher healthcare costs. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions and specialized care strategies for this high-risk population.

Clinical Outcomes of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Amyloidosis, Sarcoidosis, and Hemochromatosis.

Background: Infiltrative diseases (IDs), including amyloidosis, sarcoidosis, and hemochromatosis, are characterized by abnormal cellular infiltration in multiple organs, including the heart. The prognosis of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) patients with underlying IDs has not been well-studied. We evaluated the prevalence of IDs in patients undergoing PCI and their association with post-PCI outcomes. Methods: The National Inpatient Sample (NIS) 2016-2020 database was used to identify PCI patients with ICD-10 codes for a retrospective analysis. PCI patients were then divided into those with and without underlying IDs, which included amyloidosis, sarcoidosis, and hemochromatosis. Multivariable logistic regression was performed for composite post-PCI outcomes analyses. Results: Among 2,360,860 patients admitted to undergo PCI, 7855 patients had underlying IDs. The highest prevalence was observed for sarcoidosis (0.2%) followed by hemochromatosis (0.07%) and amyloidosis (0.04%). Underlying amyloidosis was associated with worse composite post-PCI outcomes (odds ratio [OR], 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.44; P = .02), including higher in-hospital mortality (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-3.4; P = .04), higher risk of intra/post-PCI stroke (OR, 4.0; 95% CI, 1.1-16.0; P = .04), but not major bleeding (OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 0.97-5.03; P = .058). In contrast, underlying sarcoidosis (OR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.87-1.41; P = .4), and hemochromatosis (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.77-1.8; P = .44) were not associated with composite post-PCI outcomes. Amyloidosis patients undergoing PCI also had higher hospitalization charges ($212,123 vs $141,137; P = .03) and longer length of stay (8.2 vs 3.9 days; P < .001). Conclusions: Underlying amyloidosis was associated with worse post-PCI outcomes including higher in-hospital mortality, intra/post-PCI stroke, and socioeconomic burden. A multidisciplinary approach and future studies are needed to investigate the screening and treatment strategies in these patients.

30-Day unplanned readmission rates, causes and outcomes of patients hospitalized for acute coronary syndrome based on the trial participation status.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the association between index trial participation status and 30-day unplanned readmission rates, causes, and outcomes in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients. METHODS: The National Readmission Database was analysed for all index hospitalizations with a principal diagnosis of ACS between October 2015 to November 2019, stratified by index trial participation status (International Classification of Diseases - 10th edition code: Z00.6). The 30-day unplanned readmission rates, causes and outcomes were analysed, including the assessment of factors associated with readmission. Multivariable regression analyses were reported as adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CI). All analyses were weighted and utilized hierarchical multi-level organization. RESULTS: A total of 2,066,328 cases with a principal diagnosis of ACS were included in the study, of which there were 4061 trial participants (0.2 %) and 189,240 (9.2 %) cases experienced unplanned 30-day readmission. Rates of unplanned 30-day readmission were similar between trial participants and non-participants (9.8 % vs. 9.2 %, p = 0.16). Consistently, after multivariable adjustment, there was no significant association between trial participation and unplanned 30-day readmissions (aOR 0.96, 95 % CI 0.86-1.07, p = 0.45). Compared with trial participants, the majority of readmissions in non-participants were related to cardiovascular conditions (55.2 % vs. 46.7 %, p = 0.005, respectively). There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality (5.5 % vs. 4.6 %, p = 0.368, respectively), but trial participants were more likely to develop major bleeding (3.5 % vs. 2.1 %, p = 0.044), ischemic stroke (4.0 % vs. 2.1 %, p = 0.008) and haemorrhagic stroke (2.0 % vs. 0.6 %, p < 0.001) at readmissions. CONCLUSION: Overall rates of unplanned 30-day readmissions after ACS are similar between trial participants and non-participants, but non-participation in trials was associated with a higher likelihood of cardiovascular readmission.

The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions.

Background: Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050. Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades. Findings: Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population). Interpretation: This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor. Funding: This was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01).

Performance of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED in predicting stroke and bleeding in atrial fibrillation and cancer.

Aims: To compare the predictive performance of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with and without cancer. Methods and results: Using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England, we performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with new diagnoses of AF from 2009 to 2019. Cancer was defined as history of breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, or haematological cancer. We calculated the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores for the 1-year risk of stroke and major bleeding events. Scores performance was estimated by discrimination [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)] and calibration plots. Of 141 796 patients with AF, 10.3% had cancer. The CHA2DS2-VASc score had good to modest discrimination in prostate cancer AUC = 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.71, 0.77), haematological cancer AUC = 0.71 (0.66, 0.76), colorectal cancer AUC = 0.70 (0.66, 0.75), breast cancer AUC = 0.70 (0.66, 0.74), and lung cancer AUC = 0.69 (0.60, 0.79), compared with no-cancer AUC = 0.73 (0.72, 0.74). HAS-BLED discrimination was poor in prostate cancer AUC = 0.58 (0.55, 0.61), haematological cancer AUC = 0.59 (0.55, 0.64), colorectal cancer AUC = 0.57 (0.53, 0.61), breast cancer AUC = 0.56 (0.52, 0.61), and lung cancer AUC = 0.59 (0.51, 0.67), compared with no-cancer AUC = 0.61 (0.60, 0.62). Both the CHA2DS2-VASc score and HAS-BLED score were well calibrated across all study cohorts. Conclusion: Amongst certain cancer cohorts in the AF population, CHA2DS2-VASc performs similarly in predicting stroke to AF patients without cancer. Our findings highlight the importance of cancer diagnosis during the development of risk scores and opportunities to optimize the HAS-BLED risk score to better serve cancer patients with AF.

Temporal trends of in-hospital mortality and its determinants following percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with acute coronary syndrome in England and Wales: A population-based study between 2006 and 2021.

BACKGROUND: There is limited data around drivers of changes in mortality over time. We aimed to examine the temporal changes in mortality and understand its determinants over time. METHODS: 743,149 PCI procedures for patients from the British Cardiovascular Intervention Society (BCIS) database who were aged between 18 and 100 years and underwent Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI) for Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) in England and Wales between 2006 and 2021 were included. We decomposed the contributing factors to the difference in the observed mortality proportions between 2006 and 2021 using Fairlie decomposition method. Multiple imputation was used to address missing data. RESULTS: Overall, there was an increase in the mortality proportion over time, from 1.7% (95% CI: 1.5% to 1.9%) in 2006 to 3.1% (95% CI: 3.0% to 3.2%) in 2021. 61.2% of this difference was explained by the variables included in the model. ACS subtypes (percentage contribution: 14.67%; 95% CI: 5.76% to 23.59%) and medical history (percentage contribution: 13.50%; 95% CI: 4.33% to 22.67%) were the strongest contributors to the difference in the observed mortality proportions between 2006 and 2021. Also, there were different drivers to mortality changes between different time periods. Specifically, ACS subtypes and severity of presentation were amongst the strongest contributors between 2006 and 2012 while access site and demographics were the strongest contributors between 2012 and 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Patient factors and the move towards ST-elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI) PCI have driven the short-term mortality changes following PCI for ACS the most.

Bleeding risk prediction after acute myocardial infarction-integrating cancer data: the updated PRECISE-DAPT cancer score.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: This study assessed the impact of incorporating cancer as a predictor on performance of the PRECISE-DAPT score. METHODS: A nationally linked cohort of ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients between 1 January 2005 and 31 March 2019 was derived from the UK Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project and the UK Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care registries. The primary outcome was major bleeding at 1 year. A new modified score was generated by adding cancer as a binary variable to the PRECISE-DAPT score using a Cox regression model and compared its performance to the original PRECISE-DAPT score. RESULTS: A total of 216 709 ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients were included, of which 4569 had cancer. The original score showed moderate accuracy (C-statistic .60), and the modified score showed modestly higher discrimination (C-statistics .64; hazard ratio 1.03, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.04) even in patients without cancer (C-statistics .63; hazard ratio 1.03, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.04). The net reclassification index was .07. The bleeding rates of the modified score risk categories (high, moderate, low, and very low bleeding risk) were 6.3%, 3.8%, 2.9%, and 2.2%, respectively. According to the original score, 65.5% of cancer patients were classified as high bleeding risk (HBR) and 21.6% were low or very low bleeding risk. According to the modified score, 94.0% of cancer patients were HBR, 6.0% were moderate bleeding risk, and no cancer patient was classified as low or very low bleeding risk. CONCLUSIONS: Adding cancer to the PRECISE-DAPT score identifies the majority of patients with cancer as HBR and can improve its discrimination ability without undermining its performance in patients without cancer.

Wait-times Benchmarks for risk-based prioritization in Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Demand for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has increased in the last decade, resulting in prolonged wait-times and undesirable health outcomes in many health systems. Risk-based prioritization and wait-times benchmarks can improve equitable access to patients. METHODS: We used simulation models to follow-up a synthetic population of 50,000 individuals from referral to completion of TAVI. Based on their risk of adverse events, patients could be classified as "low-", "medium-" and "high-risk", and shorter wait-times were assigned for the higher risk groups. We assessed the impacts of the size and wait-times for each risk group on waitlist mortality, hospitalization and urgent TAVIs. All scenarios had the same resource constraints, allowing us to explore the trade-offs between faster access for prioritized patients and deferred access for non-prioritized groups. RESULTS: Increasing the proportion of patients categorized as high-risk, and providing more rapid access to the higher-risk groups achieved the greatest reductions in mortality, hospitalizations and urgent TAVIs (relative reductions of up to 29%, 23% and 38%, respectively). However, this occurs at the expense of excessive wait-times in the non-prioritized low-risk group (up to 25 weeks). We propose wait-times of up to 3 weeks for high-risk patients and 7 weeks for medium-risk patients. CONCLUSIONS: Prioritizing higher-risk patients with faster access leads to better health outcomes, however this also results in unacceptably long wait-times for the non-prioritized groups in settings with limited capacity. Decision-makers must be aware of these implications when developing and implementing waitlist prioritization strategies.