A Bayesian Projection of the Total Fertility Rate of Puerto Rico: 2020-2050.

OBJECTIVE: The abrupt decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of Puerto Rico to 0.9 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, makes the prospect of a sustained population decline a real possibility. Population projections produced by the United States Census Bureau and the United Nations Population Division show that the island population may decline from 3.8 millions in 2000 to slightly above 2 million by 2050, a dramatic population decline of 47% in 50 years. Both population projections assume that all countries with a TFR below replacement level could eventually increase toward or oscillate to 2.1 children per woman and have Puerto Rico's TFR approaching 1.5 by 2050. This assumption has been widely criticized as unrealistic and not supported by evidence. The main objective of our research is to provide an alternative fertility projection for Puerto Rico by 2050 that has more realistic assumptions. METHODS: Our methodology is based on the Bayesian Hierarchical Probabilistic Theory used by the United Nations to incorporate a way to measure the uncertainty and to estimate the projection parameters. We modified the assumptions used by the United Nations by considering 17 countries with TFR similar to Puerto Rico. RESULTS: By 2050, Puerto Rico may have a TFR of 1.1 bounded by a 95% credibility interval (0.56,1.77). CONCLUSION: Under this scenario Puerto Rico can expect to have a larger population decline than that projected by the Census Bureau and the United Nations.

Comparative Longterm Mortality Trends in Cancer vs. Ischemic Heart Disease in Puerto Rico.

OBJECTIVE: Although contemporary mortality data are important for health assessment and planning purposes, their availability lag several years. Statistical projection techniques can be employed to obtain current estimates. This study aimed to assess annual trends of mortality in Puerto Rico due to cancer and Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD), and to predict shorterm and longterm cancer and IHD mortality figures. METHODS: Age-adjusted mortality per 100,000 population projections with a 50% interval probability were calculated utilizing a Bayesian statistical approach of Age-Period-Cohort dynamic model. Multiple cause-of-death annual files for years 1994-2010 for Puerto Rico were used to calculate shortterm (2011-2012) predictions. Longterm (2013-2022) predictions were based on quinquennial data. We also calculated gender differences in rates (men-women) for each study period. RESULTS: Mortality rates for women were similar for cancer and IHD in the 1994-1998 period, but changed substantially in the projected 2018-2022 period. Cancer mortality rates declined gradually overtime, and the gender difference remained constant throughout the historical and projected trends. A consistent declining trend for IHD historical annual mortality rate was observed for both genders, with a substantial changepoint around 2004-2005 for men. The initial gender difference of 33% (80/100,00 vs. 60/100,000) in mortality rates observed between cancer and IHD in the 1994-1998 period increased to 300% (60/100,000 vs. 20/100,000) for the 2018-2022 period. CONCLUSION: The APC projection model accurately projects shortterm and longterm mortality trends for cancer and IHD in this population: The steady historical and projected cancer mortality rates contrasts with the substantial decline in IHD mortality rates, especially in men.

Incidence, in-hospital case-fatality rates, and management practices in Puerto Ricans hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVE: There are extremely limited data on minority populations, especially Hispanics, describing the clinical epidemiology of acute coronary disease. The aim of this study is to examine the incidence rate of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), in-hospital case-fatality rate (CFR), and management practices among residents of greater San Juan (Puerto Rico) who were hospitalized with an initial AMI. METHODS: Our trained study staff reviewed and independently validated the medical records of patients who had been hospitalized with possible AMI at any of the twelve hospitals located in greater San Juan during calendar year 2007. RESULTS: The incidence rate (# per 100,000 population) of 1,415 patients hospitalized with AMI increased with advancing age and were significantly higher for older patients for men (198) than they were for women (134). The average age of the study population was 64 years, and women comprised 45% of the study sample. Evidence-based cardiac therapies, e.g., aspirin, beta blockers, ACE inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers, and statins, were used with 60% of the hospitalized patients, and women were less likely than men to have received these therapies (59% vs. 65%) or to have undergone interventional cardiac procedures (47% vs. 59%) (p<0.05). The in-hospital CFR increased with advancing age and were higher for women (8.6%) than they were for men (6.0%) (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Efforts are needed to reduce the magnitude of AMI, enhance the use of evidence-based cardiac therapies, reduce possible gender disparities, and improve the short-term prognoses of Puerto Rican patients hospitalized with an initial AMI.

Seasonal variations in the risk of gastrointestinal illness on a tropical recreational beach.

The objectives of this study were to examine the seasonal changes in the risk of gastrointestinal (GI) illness of beachgoers in the tropics, to compare the association between GI illness and water quality using various indicator organisms, and to study other beach health hazards. A prospective cohort study during two seasonal periods (summer and autumn) was conducted in a beach surrounded by intensive residential development. Analyses demonstrated that although densities of indicators were well below water quality standards throughout the study, they were significantly higher during the autumn season. The incidence of GI illness among beachgoers was also higher during the rainy season. A higher incidence of GI illness was observed for bathers during the autumn season when compared to non-bathers, while a somewhat lower incidence was observed during the summer. This study showed that rainfall contributes to higher levels of microbial contaminants and GI risk to beachgoers. The association between GI illness and Enterococcus using culture counts showed the highest odds ratio among all indicator parameters including those using molecular methods. A much higher risk of GI illness among children under 5 years was observed among all beachgoers.

Gender disparities in Puerto Ricans hospitalized with an initial acute myocardial infarction: A population-based perspective.

OBJECTIVE: The published literature suggests differences in presenting symptoms for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), management, and outcomes according to gender and age. However, limited information exists on this topic among Hispanics. METHODS: In Puerto Rican patients hospitalized with an initial AMI, we examined differences in presenting symptoms, effective cardiac therapies, and in-hospital mortality as a function of gender and age groups. We reviewed the medical records of patients hospitalized with a validated AMI in 12 greater San Juan, Puerto Rico hospitals during 2007. RESULTS: The average age of 1,415 patients hospitalized with a first AMI was 66 years and 45 % were women. Chest pain (81%) was the most prevalent acute presenting symptom with significant differences in its frequency between women (77%) and men (85%)(p<0.001). Right arm pain, shortness-of-breath/dyspnea, and sweating/ diaphoresis were most prevalent in patients 55-64 years old (45%), compared with patients 75 years and older (29%)(p<0.005). Relative to men and patients < 55 years old, coronary angiography/thrombolytic therapy and percutaneous coronary interventions were used less frequently in women and older patients (>75 years old). During hospitalization for AMI the in-hospital death rate was higher in women (8.6%) than men (6.0%), and increased with advancing age (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest significant gender and age differences in presenting symptoms, management, and early mortality in Puerto Ricans hospitalized with an initial AMI. It remains of considerable importance that health care personnel become aware of these gender and age differences to improve the management and outcomes of these patients.

El espaciamiento de los nacimientos en Puerto Rico / Birth spacing in Puerto Rico

Este trabajo analiza el proceso de formación de familias en Puerto Rico mediante el uso de la técnica de tablas de vida. A pesar del descenso continuo en al fecundidad, el patrón de espaciamiento de los nacimientos es uno muy rápido con una alta proporción de intervalos intergenésicos de corta duración. Esto indica una clara distinción en el comportamiento reproductivo dirigido al espaciamiento y a la terminación de la reprodución. Al final se discuten algunas de las posibles implicaciones de salud