Exostosin-1/exostosin-2 expression and favorable kidney outcomes in lupus nephritis: a retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION/OBJECTIVES: The heterodimer exostosin-1/exostosin-2 (EXO-1/2) is a novel antigen observed in membranous nephropathy associated with systemic lupus erythematosus. This study aimed to evaluate the association between EXO-1/2 positivity in kidney biopsy and kidney outcomes. METHODS: The kidney biopsy tissue from 50 class 5 lupus nephritis (LN) and 55 mixed class 3/4 + 5 LN patients was stained for EXO-1/2. Baseline clinical and histological characteristics were compared between EXO-1/2 positive and EXO-1/2 negative patients. Time-to-event analyses were performed to compare rates of response to therapy, kidney flares, and progression to a 40% decline of the glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), doubling of serum creatinine, and kidney failure. RESULTS: Fourteen out of 50 (28%) of class 5 and 5 out of 55 (9%) of mixed class 3/4 + 5 LN stained positive for EXO-1/2. Patients with class 5 LN and EXO-1/2 positive stain were younger, with better kidney function at presentation, and lower scarring in the kidney biopsy analysis. Over a median follow-up of 100 months, patients with positive EXO-1/2 staining had significantly lower rates of progression in the full cohort. When analyzed separately in class 5 and mixed class LN subgroups, there were significantly lower rates of progression to a 40% decline of the eGFR and non-statistically significant trends for doubling of serum creatinine and kidney failure. CONCLUSION: EXO-1/2 is a novel antigen detected in class 5 LN and associated with a good prognosis of kidney function. The incorporation of EXO-1/2 staining in clinical practice can potentially modify the management of LN due to its prognostic implications. Key Points • Exostosin-1/exostosin-2 antigen has been found in cases of membranous nephropathy associated with autoimmune diseases such as systemic lupus erythematosus. • Exostosin-1/exostosin-2 staining in the kidney biopsy of class 5 or mixed class 3/4 + 5 lupus nephritis is associated with a good long-term prognosis of kidney function. • The incorporation of exostosin-1/exostosin-2 staining into clinical practice can potentially modify management due to its prognostic implications.

Performance of clinical and histological prognostic scores for kidney survival in ANCA-associated vasculitis.

OBJECTIVES: Integrating clinical and histological parameters into prognostic scores may enhance the prediction of progression to kidney failure in anti-neutrophil cytoplasm antibodies-associated vasculitis (AAV). This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic performance of histological classifications and scoring systems for kidney survival in AAV. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 101 AAV patients with kidney involvement diagnosed by biopsy and followed for ≥12 months. The main outcome was the time to kidney failure. The prognostic performance of each histological and prognostic score was evaluated using Harrell's C statistic and Akaike's Information Criteria. RESULTS: Among the 101 patients, 37 progressed to kidney failure over a median follow-up of 75 months (IQR 39-123). The Harrell's C statistic was 0.702 (0.620-0.784), 0.606 (0.473-0.738), 0.801 (0.736-0.867), 0.782 (0.706-0.858), and 0.817 (0.749-0.885) for the EUVAS/Berden classification, Mayo Clinic Chronicity Score, Percentage of ANCA Crescentic Score (PACS), ANCA renal risk score (ARRS), and the improved ANCA kidney risk score (AKRiS), respectively. The AKRiS best discriminated the risk of kidney failure progression among subgroups. The AKRiS performance decreased with longer follow-up intervals. Adding the peak estimated glomerular filtration rate attained post-therapy improved the AKRiS performance at all follow-up intervals. Kidney relapses precipitated kidney failure in 71% of cases that progressed after the first year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: The novel AKRiS enhances the prediction of kidney failure in AAV with kidney involvement. As the prognostic yield of AKRiS decreases over time, a second calculation of AKRiS, including post-therapy kidney function, may improve its long-term performance.

Kidney involvement in systemic lupus erythematosus: From the patient assessment to a tailored treatment.

In the last few years, several studies have provided new evidence for the diagnosis, management, and follow-up of patients with lupus nephritis. Evidence showing dissociation between clinical and histological findings has prompted reevaluation of the role of the kidney biopsy as a tool for diagnosis and follow-up. In therapeutics, four immunosuppressive schemes now have supporting evidence for use as initial therapy. Current challenges include individualized selection of the best immunosuppressive regimen, an unmet need for non-invasive biomarkers of disease activity to inform treatment responses and guide subsequent therapy, holistic patient management in this complex, multisystem disease, and ultimately the development of more targeted therapies directed at specific effector pathways driving glomerular inflammation and damage in order to improve treatment response. In this communication, we review the diagnostic and therapeutic approach to lupus nephritis, as well as evaluation of response to therapy and disease control.

Effect of antimalarials on clinical outcomes in lupus nephritis.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effect of antimalarial drugs in response to therapy, incidence of LN flares, and progression of kidney disease in a large LN cohort. METHODS: We retrospectively studied 424 biopsy-proven LN patients followed for >3 years. We obtained demographic, clinical, laboratory, histopathological, and treatment variables. Antimalarial use was approached as 1) users versus no users, 2) according to prevalent vs incident use regarding the LN flare, and 3) according to the type of antimalarial. All outcomes were evaluated by time-to-event analyses. Adjusted hazard ratios were obtained by Cox regression. RESULTS: The cohort included 424 patients, median age of 29 years (IQR 23-37), 96% female, with a median eGFR of 81 ml/min/1.73m2 (IQR 48-118) and proteinuria of 3.4 g/g (IQR 1.9-5.5). Antimalarial use was associated with higher complete response (aHR 1.57, 1.08-2.27), lower incidence of kidney flares (aHR 0.63, 0.43-0.92), and lower progression to kidney failure (aHR 0.37, 0.23-0.53). The effect on these outcomes was modified by the presentation eGFR, histological class, and/or concomitant initial immunosuppressor. These protective effects were observed in patients with prevalent or incident use regarding the LN flare and patients using hydroxychloroquine. The incidence of toxic retinopathy was 1.7%, 5.7%, and 8.8% by 3-, 5-, and 7 years of continued antimalarial use. CONCLUSION: The use of antimalarial drugs is associated with increased response to therapy, lower incidence of kidney flares, and lower progression to kidney failure in LN patients. Conversely, this population is at high risk of toxic maculopathy, and yearly ophthalmologic examination is recommended.

Predictors of treatment outcomes in lupus nephritis with severe acute kidney injury and requirement of dialytic support.

INTRODUCTION/OBJECTIVES: Acute kidney injury (AKI) with the requirement of kidney replacement therapy (KRT) portends a poor prognosis for kidney function in lupus nephritis (LN). This study evaluated the kidney function recovery rates, the rates of reinitiation of KRT, and factors associated with these outcomes in LN. METHOD: All consecutive patients hospitalized for LN with KRT requirement between 2000 and 2020 were included. Their clinical and histopathologic characteristics were retrospectively registered. The outcomes and associated factors were evaluated by multivariable Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Among 140 patients, 75 (54%) recovered kidney function, with recovery rates of 50.9% and 54.2% by 6 and 12 months of therapy. The factors associated with a lower probability of recovery included a previous history of LN flares, worse eGFR and higher proteinuria at presentation, immunosuppression with azathioprine, and hospitalizations within 6 months of therapy initiation. There was no difference in the kidney function recovery rates between mycophenolate and cyclophosphamide treatment schemes. Out of 75 patients who recovered kidney function, 37 (49%) reinitiated KRT, with KRT reinitiation rates of 27.2% and 46.5% by 3 and 5 years. Seventy-three (52%) patients had at least one hospitalization within 6 months of initial therapy, 52 (72%) of them secondary to infectious events. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 50% of patients with LN and KRT requirement recover kidney function within 6 months. The risk-to-benefit ratio decisions may be aided by clinical and histological factors. These patients require close follow-up as ≈50% of those who recover kidney function will reinitiate dialysis in the long term. Key Points • Approximately 50% of patients with severe acute lupus nephritis with the need for kidney replacement therapy requirement recover their kidney function. • The factors associated with a lower probability of recovery of kidney function include a previous history of LN flares, worse eGFR and higher proteinuria at presentation, immunosuppression with azathioprine, and hospitalizations within 6 months of therapy initiation. • Patients who recover kidney function will require close follow-up as around 50% of them will eventually reinitiate kidney replacement therapy.

Acute Kidney Injury in Critical Care COVID-19 Patients on Invasive Mechanical Ventilation: The Potential Preventive Role of Dexamethasone

Abstract Background: A high incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI) has been reported in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in critical care units and those undergoing invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). The introduction of dexamethasone (DXM) as treatment for severe COVID-19 has improved mortality, but its effects in other organs remain under study. Objective: The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between DXM and AKI in COVID-19. Methods: In this prospective observational cohort study, we evaluated the incidence of AKI in critically ill COVID-19 patients undergoing mechanical ventilation, and the association of DXM treatment with the incidence, severity, and outcomes of AKI. The association between DXM treatment and AKI was evaluated by multivariable logistic regression. The association of the combination of DXM treatment and AKI on mortality was evaluated by Cox-regression analysis. Results: We included 552 patients. AKI was diagnosed in 311 (56%), of which 196 (63%) corresponded to severe (stage 2 or 3) AKI, and 46 (14.8%) received kidney replacement therapy. Two hundred and sixty-seven (48%) patients were treated with DXM. This treatment was associated to lower incidence of AKI (Odds Radio 0.34, 95% Confidence intervals [CI] 0.22-0.52, p < 0.001) after adjusting for age, body mass index, laboratory parameters, SOFA score, and vasopressor use. DXM treatment significantly reduced mortality in patients with severe AKI (HR 0.63, 95%CI 0.41-0.96, p = 0.032). Conclusions: The incidence of AKI is high in COVID-19 patients under IMV. DXM treatment is associated with a lower incidence of AKI and a lower mortality in the group with severe AKI.

Leukocyte Chemotactic Factor 2 Amyloidosis (ALECT2) Distribution in a Mexican Population.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the prevalence of leukocyte cell-derived chemotactic 2 (LECT2), its organ involvement, and its clinical association in autopsies from an ethnically biased population. METHODS: The tissues from all autopsies of individuals diagnosed with amyloidosis were reassessed and typed for amyloid light chain (AL) amyloidosis, amyloid A (AA) amyloidosis, transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTR), and leukocyte chemotactic factor 2 amyloidosis (ALECT2) by immunohistochemistry. Organ involvement was described and correlated with its clinical associations. RESULTS: Of 782 autopsies, 27 (3.5%) had a confirmed diagnosis of amyloidosis. Of these, 14 (52%) corresponded to ALECT2, 5 (19%) to AL amyloidosis, 2 (7%) to ATTR amyloidosis, 1 (4%) to AA amyloidosis, and 5 (21%) as undetermined-type amyloidosis. The LECT2 amyloid deposits were found in the kidneys, liver, spleen, and adrenal glands in most individuals. Except for the kidneys, there were no clinical signs suggestive of amyloid deposition in most of the affected organs. LECT2 amyloidosis was not associated with the cause of death in any case. No cases had heart or brain involvement. Potential subclinical effects of amyloid deposition in organs such as adrenal glands and spleen require further study. CONCLUSIONS: This autopsy study confirms the high prevalence of LECT2 amyloidosis in the Mexican population, with frequent amyloid deposition in the kidneys, liver, spleen, and adrenal glands.

Characteristics and outcomes of a Hispanic lupus nephritis cohort from Mexico.

OBJECTIVES: To characterize the clinical presentation and outcomes of LN in a Hispanic cohort from Mexico. METHODS: We studied 440 subjects with systemic lupus erythematosus and biopsy-proven LN followed for >36 months. We obtained demographic, clinical, laboratory, histopathological and treatment variables. All outcomes were analysed by survival analysis and included response to therapy, renal relapses, progression of kidney disease (decline in eGFR ≥ 30%, doubling of serum creatinine, end-stage kidney disease) and patient survival. RESULTS: The median age of the study cohort was 29 years (IQR 23-37) and 96% were female. The median eGFR at inclusion was 81 mL/min/1.73m2 (IQR 48-118) and 24 h-uPCR was 3.4 g/g (IQR 1.9-5.6). Mixed class LN (III/IV+V) was the most frequently observed (69%). Over a median follow-up of 79 months, complete response rates were 22.3%, 40.5% and 51.6%, at 6, 12 and 24 months, respectively. Renal relapse rates were 32.3% and 50.6% at 3 and 5 years. By 3 and 5 years, 20.7% and 31.4% had decline in eGFR ≥30%, 14.4% and 22.5% doubled their serum creatinine, and 9.1% and 17.7% progressed to ESKD. The factors associated with loss of kidney function were age, eGFR at presentation, the histologic chronicity index in the kidney biopsy, and the type of response to therapy. Patient survival was 98.2% and 97.1% at 3 and 5 years. CONCLUSION: Although the response to treatment and patient survival in this Latin American cohort is comparable to that observed in other regions, there is still a high rate of renal relapses and progression to decline in kidney function.

The first-year course of urine MCP-1 and its association with response to treatment and long-term kidney prognosis in lupus nephritis.

OBJECTIVES: The present study aims to assess the course of uMCP-1 and its association with response to therapy and long-term kidney function in a prospective cohort of adults who received a kidney biopsy for suspicion of active lupus nephritis (LN). METHODS: Subjects were segregated into a histologically active LN group and a histologically chronic LN group. Both groups were followed for > = 36 months and urine were collected at flare, 3, 6, and 12 months of follow-up. The association between the course of uMCP-1, response to treatment, and progression to 30% loss of the eGFR was evaluated by linear mixed models for repeated measures. RESULTS: A kidney biopsy was performed on 125 subjects. In 114, the report was consistent with histologically active LN; in 11, with histologically chronic LN. Urine MCP-1 levels were significantly higher in the active LN than in the chronic LN group. Urine MCP-1 levels correlated with the histological findings of cellular crescents, endocapillary hypercellularity, interstitial inflammation, glomerular sclerosis, interstitial fibrosis, and tubular atrophy. The mean estimates of uMCP-1 at flare were higher in the non-response group than in the complete response group, and decreased in the complete/partial response groups by the third month, while they remained elevated in the non-response group. The mean estimates for uMCP-1 were higher at LN flare and remained elevated in patients who progressed to loss of 30% of the eGFR, while they decreased in patients with stable kidney function. CONCLUSION: The first-year course of uMCP-1 is associated with response to therapy and kidney survival in LN. Key Points •Urine MCP-1 levels differentiate histologically-active lupus nephritis from histologically-chronic lupus nephritis •Urine MCP-1 levels decrease by 3 months of therapy in subjects with a favorable response whose kidney function remains stable long-term •Urine MCP-1 levels remain elevated during the first year of therapy in subjects the will later lose kidney function.

The influence of repeated flares in response to therapy and prognosis in lupus nephritis.

BACKGROUND: Repeated renal flares in lupus nephritis (LN) have been associated with worse long-term kidney function. This study aimed to assess the impact of repeated LN flares in response to therapy, kidney and patient prognosis. METHODS: All patients from a biopsy-proven LN cohort between 2008 and 2018 were segregated into three groups according to the number of LN flares when they entered our cohort: first LN flare, second LN flare or third LN flare. The following outcomes were evaluated by unadjusted and adjusted time-to-event analyses: complete and partial response, disease relapses, progression to decline of 30% of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), doubling of serum creatinine, end-stage kidney disease and patient survival. RESULTS: A total of 441 patients were included: 257 (58%) in their first LN flare, 102 (23%) in their second LN flare and 82 (19%) in their third LN flare. There were significant differences in LN flare presentation in age, eGFR, serum albumin, pyuria and hematuria among groups. The National Institutes of Health chronicity indices and the percentage of patients with vascular lesions were higher in groups at progressive LN flares. In the adjusted analyses, complete and partial response rates decreased, as well as kidney and patient survival, at a progressive number of LN flares. No differences in the dynamic course of all surveillance laboratory parameters were observed in the first year after initial therapy among LN flare groups. CONCLUSIONS: A progressive number of LN flares is associated with a lower response to therapy and an adverse prognosis for kidney function and patient survival.

What Did We Learn about Coronavirus Disease-19-Associated Acute Kidney Injury During the Pandemic?

ABSTRACT Initial reports suggested that kidney involvement after coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) infection was uncommon, but this premise appears to be incorrect. Acute kidney injury can occur through various mechanisms and complicate the course of up to 25% of patients with COVID-19 hospitalized in our Institution, and of over 50% of those on invasive mechanical ventilation. Mechanisms of injury include direct kidney injury and predominantly tubular, although glomerular injury has been reported, and resulting from severe hypoxic respiratory failure, secondary infection, and exposure to nephrotoxic drugs. The mainstay of treatment remains the prevention of progressive kidney damage and, in some cases, the use of renal replacement therapy. Although the use of blood purification techniques has been proposed as a potential treatment, results to date have not been conclusive. In this manuscript, the mechanisms of kidney injury by COVID-19, risk factors, and the mainstays of treatment are reviewed.

What did we learn about coronavirus disease-19-associated acute kidney injury during the pandemic?

Initial reports suggested that kidney involvement after coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) infection was uncommon, but this premise appears to be incorrect. Acute kidney injury can occur through various mechanisms and complicate the course of up to 25% of patients with COVID-19 hospitalized in our Institution, and of over 50% of those on invasive mechanical ventilation. Mechanisms of injury include direct kidney injury and predominantly tubular, although glomerular injury has been reported, and resulting from severe hypoxic respiratory failure, secondary infection, and exposure to nephrotoxic drugs. The mainstay of treatment remains the prevention of progressive kidney damage and, in some cases, the use of renal replacement therapy. Although the use of blood purification techniques has been proposed as a potential treatment, results to date have not been conclusive. In this manuscript, the mechanisms of kidney injury by COVID-19, risk factors, and the mainstays of treatment are reviewed.

Acute Kidney Injury in Critical Care COVID-19 Patients on Invasive Mechanical Ventilation: The Potential Preventive Role of Dexamethasone.

Background: A high incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI) has been reported in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in critical care units and those undergoing invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). The introduction of dexamethasone (DXM) as treatment for severe COVID-19 has improved mortality, but its effects in other organs remain under study. Objective: The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between DXM and AKI in COVID-19. Methods: In this prospective observational cohort study, we evaluated the incidence of AKI in critically ill COVID-19 patients undergoing mechanical ventilation, and the association of DXM treatment with the incidence, severity, and outcomes of AKI. The association between DXM treatment and AKI was evaluated by multivariable logistic regression. The association of the combination of DXM treatment and AKI on mortality was evaluated by Cox-regression analysis. Results: We included 552 patients. AKI was diagnosed in 311 (56%), of which 196 (63%) corresponded to severe (stage 2 or 3) AKI, and 46 (14.8%) received kidney replacement therapy. Two hundred and sixty-seven (48%) patients were treated with DXM. This treatment was associated to lower incidence of AKI (Odds Radio 0.34, 95% Confidence intervals [CI] 0.22-0.52, p < 0.001) after adjusting for age, body mass index, laboratory parameters, SOFA score, and vasopressor use. DXM treatment significantly reduced mortality in patients with severe AKI (HR 0.63, 95%CI 0.41-0.96, p = 0.032). Conclusions: The incidence of AKI is high in COVID-19 patients under IMV. DXM treatment is associated with a lower incidence of AKI and a lower mortality in the group with severe AKI.

The lupus nephritis management renaissance.

Over the past year, and for the first time ever, the US Food and Drug Administration approved 2 drugs specifically for the treatment of lupus nephritis (LN). As the lupus community works toward understanding how to best use these new therapies, it is also an ideal time to begin to rethink the overall management strategy of LN. In addition to new drugs, this must include how to use kidney biopsies for management and not just diagnosis, how molecular technologies can be applied to interrogate biopsies and how such data can impact management, and how to incorporate LN biomarkers into management paradigms. Herein, we will review new developments in these areas of LN and put them into perspective for disease management now and in the future.

Voclosporin: a novel calcineurin inhibitor for the management of lupus nephritis.

INTRODUCTION: Kidney survival rates in lupus nephritis (LN) remain suboptimal, with 10-20% of patients progressing to end-stage kidney disease by 10-20 years. Recently, the landscape of LN management has changed with the advent of new molecules that have demonstrated safety and efficacy in clinical trials. AREAS COVERED: In this review, we approach the current state of LN management, the unmet therapeutic needs, and deep dive into voclosporin, a novel calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) that has demonstrated improved efficacy when added to a mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) and glucocorticoid regimen, without an increase in adverse events. We focus on the characteristics of this new CNI and the studies that led to its approval by the US FDA. EXPERT OPINION: Voclosporin adds to therapeutic options for LN. This drug offers potential advantages over other CNIs. The addition of voclosporin to a standard-of-care regimen of MMF/glucocorticoids demonstrated higher and faster response rates. As other regimens, a combination of CNI, MMF, and glucocorticoids must be individualized and is not appropriate for all patients. Some questions remain to be answered for this regimen, such as the length of treatment, the tapering schedule, and its long-term safety and efficacy for preserving kidney function.

The Use of Glucocorticoids in Lupus Nephritis: New Pathways for an Old Drug.

Glucocorticoids therapy has greatly improved the outcome of lupus nephritis patients. Since their discovery, their adverse effects have counterbalanced their beneficial anti-inflammatory effects. Glucocorticoids exert their effects through both genomic and non-genomic pathways. Differential activation of these pathways is clinically relevant in terms of benefit and adverse effects. Ongoing aims in lupus nephritis treatment development focus on a better use of glucocorticoids combined with immunosuppressant drugs and biologics. Newer regimens aim to decrease the peak glucocorticoid dose, allow a rapid glucocorticoid tapering, and intend to control disease activity with a lower cumulative glucocorticoid exposure. In this review we discuss the mechanisms, adverse effects and recent strategies to limit glucocorticoid exposure without compromising treatment efficacy.

Community- and Hospital-Acquired Acute Kidney Injury in COVID-19: Different Phenotypes and Dismal Prognosis.

INTRODUCTION: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). It is unknown if hospital-acquired AKI (HA-AKI) and community-acquired AKI (CA-AKI) convey a distinct prognosis. METHODS: The study aim was to evaluate the incidence and risk factors associated with both CA-AKI and HA-AKI. Consecutive patients hospitalized at a reference center for COVID-19 were included in this prospective cohort study. RESULTS: We registered 349 (30%) AKI episodes in 1,170 hospitalized patients, 224 (19%) corresponded to CA-AKI, and 125 (11%) to HA-AKI. Compared to patients with HA-AKI, subjects with CA-AKI were older (61 years [IQR 49-70] vs. 50 years [IQR 43-61]), had more comorbidities (hypertension [44 vs. 26%], CKD [10 vs. 3%]), higher Charlson Comorbidity Index (2 points [IQR 1-4] vs. 1 point [IQR 0-2]), and presented to the emergency department with more severe disease. Mortality rates were not different between CA-AKI and HA-AKI (119 [53%] vs. 63 [50%], p = 0.66). In multivariate analysis, CA-AKI was strongly associated to a history of CKD (OR 4.17, 95% CI 1.53-11.3), hypertension (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.01-2.36), Charlson Comorbidity Index (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.02-1.32), and SOFA score (OR 2.19, 95% CI 1.87-2.57). HA-AKI was associated with the requirement for mechanical ventilation (OR 68.2, 95% CI 37.1-126), elevated troponin I (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.01-3.83), and glucose levels at admission (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.08). DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS: CA-AKI and HA-AKI portend an adverse prognosis in CO-VID-19. Nevertheless, CA-AKI was associated with a higher comorbidity burden (including CKD and hypertension), while HA-AKI occurred in younger patients by the time severe multiorgan disease developed.

A risk score to predict admission to the intensive care unit in patients with Covid-19: the ABC-GOALS score / Puntaje de riesgo para predecir el ingreso a una unidad de cuidados intensivos en pacientes con Covid-19: puntaje ABC-GOALS

Abstract: Objective: To develop a score to predict the need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission in Covid-19. Materials and methods: We assessed patients admitted to a Covid-19 center in Mexico. Patients were segregated into a group that required ICU admission, and a group that never required ICU admission. By logistic regression, we derived predictive models including clinical, laboratory, and imaging findings. The ABC-GOALS was constructed and compared to other scores. Results: We included 329 and 240 patients in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. One-hundred-fifteen patients from each cohort required ICU admission. The clinical (ABC-GOALSc), clinical+laboratory (ABC-GOALScl), clinical+laboratory+image (ABC-GOALSclx) models area under the curve were 0.79 (95%CI=0.74-0.83) and 0.77 (95%CI=0.71-0.83), 0.86 (95%CI=0.82-0.90) and 0.87 (95%CI=0.83-0.92), 0.88 (95%CI=0.84-0.92) and 0.86 (95%CI=0.81-0.90), in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. The ABC-GOALScland ABC-GOALSclxoutperformed other Covid-19 and pneumonia predictive scores. Conclusion: ABC-GOALS is a tool to timely predict the need for admission to ICU in Covid-19.

Resumen: Objetivo: Desarrollar un puntaje predictivo de la necesidad de ingreso a una unidad de cuidados intensivos (UCI) en Covid-19. Material y métodos: Se evaluaron pacientes ingresados por Covid-19 en México. Se dividieron en un grupo que requirió ingreso a UCI y un grupo que nunca lo requirió. Se derivaron modelos predictivos incluyendo variables clínicas, de laboratorio e imagen y se integraron en el puntaje ABC-GOALS. Resultados: Se incluyeron 329 y 240 pacientes en cohortes de desarrollo y validación, respectivamente. Ciento quince pacientes de cada cohorte requirieron ingreso a UCI. Las áreas bajo la curva de los modelos clínico (ABC-GOALSc), clínico+laboratorio (ABC-GOALScl), clínico+laboratorio+imagen (ABC-GOALSclx) fueron 0.79 (IC95%=0.74-0.83) y 0.77 (IC95%=0.71-0.83); 0.86 (IC95%=0.82-0.90) y 0.87 (IC95%=0.83-0.92); 0.88 (IC95%=0.84-0.92) y 0.86 (IC95%=0.81-0.90) en las cohortes de derivación y validación, respectivamente. El desempeño del ABC-GOALS fue superior a otros puntajes de riesgo. Conclusión: ABC-GOALS es una herramienta para predecir oportunamente la necesidad de ingreso a UCI en Covid-19.