ABSTRACT
Salmonella Typhi is a human-restricted pathogen that is transmitted by the faecal-oral route and causative organism of typhoid fever. Using health facility data from 2016 to 2020, this study focuses on modelling the spatial variation in typhoid risk in Ndirande township in Blantyre. To pursue this objective, we developed a marked inhomogeneous Poisson process model that allows us to incorporate both individual-level and environmental risk factors. The results from our analysis indicate that typhoid cases are spatially clustered, with the incidence decreasing by 54% for a unit increase in the water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) score. Typhoid intensity was also higher in children aged below 18 years than in adults. However, our results did not show evidence of a strong temporal variation in typhoid incidence. We also discuss the inferential benefits of using point pattern models to characterise the spatial variation in typhoid risk and outline possible extensions of the proposed modelling framework.
Subject(s)
Salmonella typhi , Typhoid Fever , Humans , Typhoid Fever/epidemiology , Typhoid Fever/microbiology , Salmonella typhi/isolation & purification , Adolescent , Child , Malawi/epidemiology , Adult , Child, Preschool , Male , Female , Young Adult , Incidence , Infant , Risk Factors , Sanitation , Urban PopulationABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: A lumbar puncture (LP) procedure plays a key role in meningitis diagnosis. In Malawi and other sub-Saharan African countries, LP completion rates are sometimes poor, making meningitis surveillance challenging. Our objective was to measure LP rates following an intervention to improve these during a sentinel hospital meningitis surveillance exercise in Malawi. METHODS: We conducted a before/after intervention analysis among under-five children admitted to paediatric wards at four secondary health facilities in Malawi. We used local and World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines to determine indications for LP, as these are widely used in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). The intervention comprised of refresher trainings for facility staff on LP indications and procedure, use of automated reminders to perform LP in real time in the wards, with an electronic data management system, and addition of surveillance-specific clinical officers to support existing health facility staff with performing LPs. Due to the low numbers in the before/after analysis, we also performed a during/after analysis to supplement the findings. RESULTS: A total of 13,375 under-five children were hospitalised over the 21 months window for this analysis. The LP rate was 10.4% (12/115) and 60.4% (32/53) in the before/after analysis, respectively, and 43.8% (441/1006) and 72.5% (424/599) in the supplemental during/after analysis, respectively. In our intervention-specific analysis among the three individual components, there were improvements in the LP rate by 48% (p < 0.001) following the introduction of surveillance-specific clinical officers, 10% (p < 0.001) following the introduction of automated reminders to perform an LP and 13% following refresher training. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis demonstrated a rise in LP rates following our intervention. This intervention package may be considered for planning future facility-based meningitis surveillances in similar low-resource settings.
Subject(s)
Meningitis , Spinal Puncture , Humans , Malawi/epidemiology , Spinal Puncture/methods , Infant , Child, Preschool , Meningitis/diagnosis , Meningitis/epidemiology , Male , Female , Health Facilities , Infant, Newborn , Sentinel SurveillanceABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: In Malawi, malaria is responsible for 40% of hospital deaths. Prompt diagnosis and effective treatment within 24 h of fever onset is critical to prevent progression from uncomplicated to severe disease and to reduce transmission. METHODS: As part of the large evaluation of the malaria vaccine implementation programme (MVIP), this study analysed survey data to investigate whether prompt treatment-seeking behaviour is clustered at community-level according to socio-economic demographics. RESULTS: From 4563 households included in the survey, 4856 children aged 5-48 months were enrolled. Out of 4732 children with documented gender, 52.2% were female and 47.8% male. Among the 4856 children, 33.8% reported fever in the two weeks prior to the survey. Fever prevalence was high in communities with low socio-economic status (SES) (38.3% [95% CI: 33.7-43.5%]) and low in areas with high SES (29.8% [95% CI: 25.6-34.2%]). Among children with fever, 648 (39.5%) sought treatment promptly i.e., within 24 h from onset of fever symptoms. Children were more likely to be taken for prompt treatment among guardians with secondary education compared to those without formal education (aOR:1.37, 95% CI: 1.11-3.03); in communities with high compared to low SES [aOR: 2.78, 95% CI: 1.27-6.07]. Children were less likely to be taken for prompt treatment if were in communities far beyond 5 km to health facility than within 5 km [aOR: 0.44, 95% CI: 0.21-0.92]. CONCLUSION: The high heterogeneity in prevalence of fever and levels of prompt treatment-seeking behaviour underscore the need to promote community-level malaria control interventions (such as use of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), intermittent preventive therapy (IPT), presumptive treatment and education). Programmes aimed at improving treatment-seeking behaviour should consider targeting communities with low SES and those far from health facility.
Subject(s)
Malaria Vaccines , Malaria , Malnutrition , Humans , Child , Female , Male , Malawi/epidemiology , Malaria/drug therapy , Malaria/epidemiology , Malaria/prevention & control , Educational Status , Fever/epidemiologyABSTRACT
Introduction: Length of hospital stay (LOS), defined as the time from inpatient admission to discharge, death, referral, or abscondment, is one of the key indicators of quality in patient care. Reduced LOS lowers health care expenditure and minimizes the chance of in-hospital acquired infections. Conventional methods for estimating LOS such as the Kaplan-Meier survival curve and the Cox proportional hazards regression for time to discharge cannot account for competing risks such as death, referral, and abscondment. This study applied competing risk methods to investigate factors important for risk-stratifying patients based on LOS in order to enhance patient care. Methods: This study analyzed data from ongoing safety surveillance of the malaria vaccine implementation program in Malawi's four district hospitals of Balaka, Machinga, Mchinji, and Ntchisi. Children aged 1-59 months who were hospitalized (spending at least one night in hospital) with a medical illness were consecutively enrolled between 1 November 2019 and 31 July 2021. Sub-distribution-hazard (SDH) ratios for the cumulative incidence of discharge were estimated using the Fine-Gray competing risk model. Results: Among the 15,463 children hospitalized, 8,607 (55.7%) were male and 6,856 (44.3%) were female. The median age was 22 months [interquartile range (IQR): 12-33 months]. The cumulative incidence of discharge was 40% lower among HIV-positive children compared to HIV-negative (sub-distribution-hazard ratio [SDHR]: 0.60; [95% CI: 0.46-0.76]; P < 0.001); lower among children with severe and cerebral malaria [SDHR: 0.94; (95% CI: 0.86-0.97); P = 0.04], sepsis or septicemia [SDHR: 0.90; (95% CI: 0.82-0.98); P = 0.027], severe anemia related to malaria [SDHR: 0.54; (95% CI: 0.48-0.61); P < 0.001], and meningitis [SDHR: 0.18; (95% CI: 0.09-0.37); P < 0.001] when compared to non-severe malaria; and also 39% lower among malnourished children compared to those that were well-nourished [SDHR: 0.61; (95% CI: 0.55-0.68); P < 0.001]. Conclusions: This study applied the Fine-Gray competing risk approach to more accurately model LOS as the time to discharge when there were significant rates of in-hospital mortality, referrals, and abscondment. Patient care can be enhanced by risk-stratifying by LOS based on children's age, HIV status, diagnosis, and nutritional status.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Typhoid fever is a substantial public health problem in Africa, yet there are few clinical trials of typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV). We assessed immunogenicity and safety of Typbar TCV in Malawi. METHODS: This substudy was nested within a phase 3, double-blind, parallel design, randomised controlled trial of TCV in children from Ndirande Health Centre in Ndirande township, Blantyre, Malawi. To be eligible, participants had to be aged between 9 months and 12 years with no known immunosuppression or chronic health conditions, including HIV or severe malnutrition; eligible participants were enrolled into three strata of approximately 200 children (9-11 months, 1-5 years, and 6-12 years), randomly assigned (1:1) to receive TCV or control (meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine [MCV-A]) intramuscularly. Serum was collected before vaccination and at 28 days and 730-1035 days after vaccination to measure anti-Vi antibodies by ELISA. Because of COVID-19, day 730 visits were extended up to 1035 days. This nested substudy evaluated reactogenicity, safety, and immunogenicity by age stratum. Safety outcomes, analysed in the intention-to-treat population, included solicited adverse events within 7 days of vaccination (assessed on 3 separate days) and unsolicited adverse events within 28 days of vaccination. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03299426. FINDINGS: Between Feb 22 and Sept 6, 2018, 664 participants were screened, and 631 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned (320 to the TCV group and 311 to the MCV-A group). 305 participants in the TCV group and 297 participants in the MCV-A group were vaccinated. Among TCV recipients, anti-Vi IgG geometric mean titres increased more than 500 times from 4·2 ELISA units (EU)/mL (95% CI 4·0-4·4) at baseline to 2383·7 EU/mL (2087·2-2722·3) at day 28, then decreased to 48·0 EU/mL (39·9-57·8) at day 730-1035, remaining more than 11 times higher than baseline. Among MCV-A recipients, anti-Vi IgG titres remained unchanged: 4·3 EU/mL (4·0-4·5) at baseline, 4·4 EU/mL (4·0-4·7) on day 28, and 4·6 EU/mL (4·2-5·0) on day 730-1035. TCV and MCV-A recipients had similar solicited local (eight [3%] of 304, 95% CI 1·3-5·1 and three [1%] of 293, 0·4-3·0) and systemic (27 [9%] of 304, 6·2-12·6 and 27 [9%] of 293, 6·4-13·1) reactogenicity. Related unsolicited adverse events occurred similarly in TCV and MCV-A recipients in eight (3%) of 304 (1·3-5·1) and eight (3%) of 293 (1·4-5·3). INTERPRETATION: This study provides evidence of TCV safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity up to 730-1035 days in Malawian children aged 9 months to 12 years. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Typhoid Fever , Typhoid-Paratyphoid Vaccines , Vaccines, Conjugate , Child , Double-Blind Method , Humans , Immunoglobulin G , Infant , Malawi , Typhoid Fever/prevention & control , Typhoid-Paratyphoid Vaccines/adverse effects , Vaccines, Conjugate/adverse effectsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Typhoid fever caused by multidrug-resistant H58 Salmonella Typhi is an increasing public health threat in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We conducted a phase 3, double-blind trial in Blantyre, Malawi, to assess the efficacy of Vi polysaccharide typhoid conjugate vaccine (Vi-TCV). We randomly assigned children who were between 9 months and 12 years of age, in a 1:1 ratio, to receive a single dose of Vi-TCV or meningococcal capsular group A conjugate (MenA) vaccine. The primary outcome was typhoid fever confirmed by blood culture. We report vaccine efficacy and safety outcomes after 18 to 24 months of follow-up. RESULTS: The intention-to-treat analysis included 28,130 children, of whom 14,069 were assigned to receive Vi-TCV and 14,061 were assigned to receive the MenA vaccine. Blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever occurred in 12 children in the Vi-TCV group (46.9 cases per 100,000 person-years) and in 62 children in the MenA group (243.2 cases per 100,000 person-years). Overall, the efficacy of Vi-TCV was 80.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 64.2 to 89.6) in the intention-to-treat analysis and 83.7% (95% CI, 68.1 to 91.6) in the per-protocol analysis. In total, 130 serious adverse events occurred in the first 6 months after vaccination (52 in the Vi-TCV group and 78 in the MenA group), including 6 deaths (all in the MenA group). No serious adverse events were considered by the investigators to be related to vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Among Malawian children 9 months to 12 years of age, administration of Vi-TCV resulted in a lower incidence of blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever than the MenA vaccine. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03299426.).