Impact of Alcohol Consumption on Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality: The Women's Health Study.

Background: Alcohol intake is associated with breast cancer (BC) risk, but estimates of greatest public health relevance have not been quantified in large studies with long duration. Materials and Methods: In this prospective cohort study of 39,811 women (median 25 years follow-up), we examined the association between alcohol consumption and BC incidence and mortality with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs), cubic splines, absolute risks, number needed to harm (NNH), and population-attributable fractions. Results: We documented 2,830 cases of BC, including 237 BC deaths. Each additional alcoholic drink/day was associated with a 10% higher rate (HR = 1.10, 95% confidence intervals [CIs]: 1.04-1.16) of total BC in a linear manner (p = 0.0004). The higher rate was apparent for estrogen receptor (ER)+ (HR = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.06-1.18) but not ER- tumors (HR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.82-1.10), with a statistically significant difference between these associations (p = 0.03). We constructed models comparing BC incidence among 100,000 women followed for 10 years. Compared to a scenario where all women rarely or never consumed alcohol, we expect 63.79 (95% CI: 58.35-69.24) more cases (NNH = 1,567) had all women consumed alcohol at least monthly and 278.66 (95% CI: 268.70-288.62) more cases (NNH = 358) had all women consumed >1 drink/day. Approximately 4.1% of BC cases were attributable to consumption exceeding one drink/month. Conclusion: Alcohol consumption is associated with a linear dose-response increase in BC incidence even within recommended limits of up to one alcoholic drink/day, at least for ER+ tumors. Our estimates of risk differences, attributable fraction, and NNH quantify the burden that alcohol consumption imposes on women in the general population. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000479.

Assessing short-term risk of ischemic stroke in relation to all prescribed medications.

We examined the short-term risk of stroke associated with drugs prescribed in Norway or Sweden in a comprehensive, hypothesis-free manner using comprehensive nation-wide data. We identified 27,680 and 92,561 cases with a first ischemic stroke via the patient- and the cause-of-death registers in Norway (2004-2014) and Sweden (2005-2014), respectively, and linked these data to prescription databases. A case-crossover design was used that compares the drugs dispensed within 1 to 14 days before the date of ischemic stroke occurrence with those dispensed 29 to 42 days before the index event. A Bolasso approach, a version of the Lasso regression algorithm, was used to select drugs that acutely either increase or decrease the apparent risk of ischemic stroke. Application of the Bolasso regression algorithm selected 19 drugs which were associated with increased risk for ischemic stroke and 11 drugs with decreased risk in both countries. Morphine in combination with antispasmodics was associated with a particularly high risk of stroke (odds ratio 7.09, 95% confidence intervals 4.81-10.47). Several potentially intriguing associations, both within and across pharmacological classes, merit further investigation in focused, follow-up studies.

Influenza vaccination and risk for cardiovascular events: a nationwide self-controlled case series study.

BACKGROUND: US and European guidelines diverge on whether to vaccinate adults who are not at high risk for cardiovascular events against influenza. Here, we investigated the associations between influenza vaccination and risk for acute myocardial infarction, stroke and pulmonary embolism during the 2009 pandemic in Norway, when vaccination was recommended to all adults. METHODS: Using national registers, we studied all vaccinated Norwegian individuals who suffered AMI, stroke, or pulmonary embolism from May 1, 2009 through September 30, 2010. We defined higher-risk individuals as those using anti-diabetic, anti-obesity, anti-thrombotic, pulmonary or cardiovascular medications (i.e. individuals to whom vaccination was routinely recommended); all other individuals were regarded as having lower-risk. We estimated incidence rate ratios with 95% CI using conditional Poisson regression in the pre-defined risk periods up to 180 days following vaccination compared to an unexposed time-period, with adjustment for season or daily temperature. RESULTS: Overall, we observed lower risk for cardiovascular events following influenza vaccination. When stratified by baseline risk, we observed lower risk across all three outcomes in association with vaccination among higher-risk individuals. In this subgroup, relative risks were 0.72 (0.59-0.88) for AMI, 0.77 (0.59-0.99) for stroke, and 0.73 (0.45-1.19) for pulmonary embolism in the period 1-14 days following vaccination when compared to the background period. These associations remained essentially the same up to 180 days after vaccination. In contrast, the corresponding relative risks among subjects not using medications were 4.19 (2.69-6.52), 1.73 (0.91-3.31) and 2.35 (0.78-7.06). CONCLUSION: In this nationwide study, influenza vaccination was associated with overall cardiovascular benefit. This benefit was concentrated among those at higher cardiovascular risk as defined by medication use. In contrast, our results demonstrate no comparable inverse association with thrombosis-related cardiovascular events following vaccination among those free of cardiovascular medications at baseline. These results may inform the risk-benefit balance for universal influenza vaccination.

Author Correction: Systematic assessment of prescribed medications and short-term risk of myocardial infarction - a pharmacopeia-wide association study from Norway and Sweden.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Systematic assessment of prescribed medications and short-term risk of myocardial infarction - a pharmacopeia-wide association study from Norway and Sweden.

Wholesale, unbiased assessment of Scandinavian electronic health-care databases offer a unique opportunity to reveal potentially important undiscovered drug side effects. We examined the short-term risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) associated with drugs prescribed in Norway or Sweden. We identified 24,584 and 97,068 AMI patients via the patient- and the cause-of-death registers and linked to prescription databases in Norway (2004-2014) and Sweden (2005-2014), respectively. A case-crossover design was used to compare the drugs dispensed 1-7 days before the date of AMI diagnosis with 15-21 days' time -window for all the drug individually while controlling the receipt of other drugs. A BOLASSO approach was used to select drugs that acutely either increase or decrease the apparent risk of AMI. We found 48 drugs to be associated with AMI in both countries. Some antithrombotics, antibiotics, opioid analgesics, adrenergics, proton-pump inhibitors, nitroglycerin, diazepam, metoclopramide, acetylcysteine were associated with higher risk for AMI; whereas angiotensin-II-antagonists, calcium-channel blockers, angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors, serotonin-specific reuptake inhibitors, allopurinol, mometasone, metformin, simvastatin, levothyroxine were inversely associated. The results were generally robust in different sensitivity analyses. This study confirms previous findings for certain drugs. Based on the known effects or indications, some other associations could be anticipated. However, inverse associations of hydroxocobalamin, levothyroxine and mometasone were unexpected and needs further investigation. This pharmacopeia-wide association study demonstrates the feasibility of a systematic, unbiased approach to pharmacological triggers of AMI and other diseases with acute, identifiable onsets.

Fibrinogen and albumin levels and risk of atrial fibrillation in men and women (the Copenhagen City Heart Study).

Cross-sectional and limited prospective evidence has suggested that inflammatory markers may predict for the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). In a prospective cohort study, we studied the risk of incident AF among 8,870 women and men free of cardiovascular disease enrolled in the Copenhagen City Heart Study. We measured plasma fibrinogen and serum albumin levels at a study visit from 1991 to 1994. We identified 286 subsequent cases of AF during a mean of 7.5 years of follow-up by a validated nationwide registry of all hospitalizations. The fibrinogen levels at baseline were associated with a higher risk of AF, with a multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio for the highest versus lowest quartiles of 1.98 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.94 to 4.17) among men and 2.14 (95% CI 1.15 to 3.96) among women. The albumin levels were inversely associated with the risk of AF among women (hazard ratio 0.47, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.77) but not among men (hazard ratio 1.01, 95% CI 0.56 to 1.84). Additional adjustment for cases of coronary heart disease, congestive heart failure, and stroke that occurred during follow-up did not attenuate these associations. In conclusion, higher levels of fibrinogen and lower levels of albumin were prospectively associated with a higher risk of AF, even accounting for their relation with the risk of cardiovascular disease. These findings support the hypothesis that inflammation contributes to the etiology of AF.