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1.
Stud Fam Plann ; 54(4): 585-607, 2023 12.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38129327

Malawi has high unmet need for contraception with a costed national plan to increase contraception use. Estimating how such investments might impact future population size in Malawi can help policymakers understand effects and value of policies to increase contraception uptake. We developed a new model of contraception and pregnancy using individual-level data capturing complexities of contraception initiation, switching, discontinuation, and failure by contraception method, accounting for differences by individual characteristics. We modeled contraception scale-up via a population campaign to increase initiation of contraception (Pop) and a postpartum family planning intervention (PPFP). We calibrated the model without new interventions to the UN World Population Prospects 2019 medium variant projection of births for Malawi. Without interventions Malawi's population passes 60 million in 2084; with Pop and PPFP interventions. it peaks below 35 million by 2100. We compare contraception coverage and costs, by method, with and without interventions, from 2023 to 2050. We estimate investments in contraception scale-up correspond to only 0.9 percent of total health expenditure per capita though could result in dramatic reductions of current pressures of very rapid population growth on health services, schools, land, and society, helping Malawi achieve national and global health and development goals.


Contraception , Family Planning Services , Pregnancy , Female , Humans , Malawi , Health Services , Postpartum Period , Contraception Behavior
2.
Heliyon ; 9(11): e21948, 2023 Nov.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38034641

Background: The prevalence of HIV varies greatly between and within countries. We aimed to build a comprehensive mathematical modelling tool capable of exploring the reasons of this heterogeneity and test its applicability by simulating the Malawian HIV epidemic. Methods: We developed a flexible individual-based mathematical model for HIV transmission that comprises a spatial representation and individual-level determinants. We tested this model by calibrating it to the HIV epidemic in Malawi and exploring whether the heterogeneity in HIV prevalence could be reproduced. We ran the model for 1975-2030 with five alternative realizations of the geographical structure and mobility: (I) no geographical structure; 28 administrative districts including (II) only permanent inter-district relocations, (III) inter-district permanent relocations and casual sexual relationships, or (IV) permanent relocations between districts and to/from abroad and inter-district casual sex; and (V) a grid of 10 × 10km2 cells, with permanent relocations and between-cell casual relationships. We assumed HIV was present in 1975 in the districts with >10 % prevalence in 2010. We calibrated the models to national and district-level prevalence estimates. Results: Reaching the national prevalence required all adults to have at least 22 casual sex acts/year until 1990. Models II, III and V reproduced the geographical heterogeneity in prevalence in 2010 to some extent if between-district relationships were excluded (Model II; 4.9 %-21.1 %). Long-distance casual partnership mixing mitigated the differences in prevalence substantially (range across districts 4.1%-18.9 % in 2010 in Model III; 4.0%-17.6 % in Model V); with international migration the differences disappeared (Model IV; range across districts 6.9%-13.3 % in 2010). National prevalence decreased to 5 % by 2030. Conclusion: Earlier introduction of HIV into the Southern part of Malawi may cause some level of heterogeneity in HIV prevalence. Other factors such as sociobehavioural characteristics are likely to have a major impact and need investigation.

3.
PLOS Glob Public Health ; 3(10): e0002367, 2023.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37812592

Type II diabetes mellitus (T2DM) significantly impacts quality of life (QoL) yet data among these patients in Malawi are lacking. This study was conducted to assess QoL among patients with T2DM. A mixed-method cross-section study was conducted at Kamuzu Central Hospital (KCH), Lilongwe, Malawi. Data collection was done using a modified diabetes quality of life (MDQoL)-17 questionnaire for quantitative data while in-depth interviews and diary methods were used for qualitative data. Demographic data were summarized using descriptive statistics and inferential statistics using t-tests and ANOVA. Thematic analysis was utilized for qualitative data. A sample of 339 participants (mean age 50.3±15.5) was recruited. Overall, the mean QoL score was moderate (mean QoL 63.91±19.54). Those on health insurance had better QoL (QoL 76.71, C.I. 69.22-84.19, p-value 0.005) compared to those without health insurance. Furthermore, the absence of comorbidities was associated with having better QoL (QoL 71.18, C.I. 66.69-75.67, p-value < 0.0001). Qualitatively, T2DM was associated with patients' health status, increased stress levels, and loss of independence. There were QoL-promoting factors among T2DM patients such as diabetes health talks, having a supportive family, and following hospital advice. Inhibiting factors include drug shortages, societal perceptions, a sedentary lifestyle, stress, and despising hospital advice. Overall QoL in patients with T2DM receiving treatment at KCH is moderate. QoL of patients with T2DM is influenced by interrelated factors which require multidisciplinary team care to optimize the QoL among these patients. Health workers need to adopt a holistic approach when treating patients with T2DM, such as managing comorbidities and including assessment of QoL, behavioral change measures like physical exercises, and a healthy diet.

4.
Health Policy Open ; 4: 100094, 2023 Dec.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37383887

The existence and availability of evidence on its own does not guarantee that the evidence will be demanded and used by decision and policy makers. Decision and policy-makers, especially in low-income settings, often confront ethical dilemmas about determining the best available evidence and its utilization. This dilemma can be in the form of conflict of evidence, scientific and ethical equipoise and competing evidence or interests. Consequently, decisions are made based on convenience, personal preference, donor requirements, and political and social considerations which can result in wastage of resources and inefficiency. To mitigate these challenges, the use of "Value- and Evidence-Based Decision Making and Practice" (VEDMAP) framework is proposed. This framework was developed by Joseph Mfutso-Bengo in 2017 through a desk review. It was pretested through a scoping study under the Thanzi la Onse (TLO) Project which assessed the feasibility and acceptability of using the VEDMAP as a priority setting tool for Health Technology Assessment (HTA) in Malawi. The study used mixed methods whereby it conducted a desk review to map out and benchmark normative values of different countries in Africa and HTA; focus group discussion and key informant interviews to map out the actual (practised) values in Malawi. The results of this review confirmed that the use of VEDMAP framework was feasible and acceptable and can bring efficiency, traceability, transparency and integrity in decision- policy making process and implementation.

5.
BMC Health Serv Res ; 23(1): 353, 2023 Apr 11.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37041590

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the feasibility and acceptability of institutionalizing Health Technology Assessment (HTA) in Malawi. METHODS: This study employed a document review and qualitative research methods, to understand the status of HTA in Malawi. This was complemented by a review of the status and nature of HTA institutionalization in selected countries.Qualitative research employed a Focus Group Discussion (FGD ) with 7 participants, and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with12 informants selected based on their knowledge and expertise in policy processes related to HTA in Malawi.Data extracted from the literature was organized in Microsoft Excel, categorized according to thematic areas and analyzed using a literature review framework. Qualitative data from KIIs and the FGD was analyzed using a thematic content analysis approach. RESULTS: Some HTA processes exist and are executed through three structures namely: Ministry of Health Senior Management Team, Technical Working Groups, and Pharmacy and Medicines Regulatory Authority (PMRA) with varyingdegrees of effectiveness.The main limitations of current HTA mechanisms include limited evidence use, lack of a standardized framework for technology adoption, donor pressure, lack of resources for the HTA process and technology acquisition, laws and practices that undermine cost-effectiveness considerations. KII and FGD results showed overwhelming demand for strengthening HTA in Malawi, with a stronger preference for strengthening coordination and capacity of existing entities and structures. CONCLUSION: The study has shown that HTA institutionalization is acceptable and feasible in Malawi. However, the current committee based processes are suboptimal to improve efficiency due to lack of a structured framework. A structured HTA framework has the potential to improve processes in pharmaceuticals and medical technologies decision-making.In the short to medium term, HTA capacity building should focus on generating demand and increasing capacity in cost-effectiveness assessments. Country-specific assessments should precede HTA institutionalization as well as recommendations for new technology adoptions.


Technology Assessment, Biomedical , Humans , Technology Assessment, Biomedical/methods , Malawi , Feasibility Studies , Qualitative Research , Focus Groups
6.
Front Public Health ; 11: 1087662, 2023.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36950103

Equitable access and utilization of the COVID-19 vaccine is the main exit strategy from the pandemic. This paper used proceedings from the Second Extraordinary Think-Tank conference, which was held by the Health Economics and Policy Unit at the Kamuzu University of Health Sciences in collaboration with the Malawi Ministry of Health, complemented by a review of literature. We found disparities in COVID-19 vaccine coverage among low-income countries. This is also the case among high income countries. The disparities are driven mainly by insufficient supply, inequitable distribution, limited production of the vaccine in low-income countries, weak health systems, high vaccine hesitancy, and vaccine misconceptions. COVID-19 vaccine inequity continues to affect the entire world with the ongoing risks of emergence of new COVID-19 variants, increased morbidity and mortality and social and economic disruptions. In order to reduce the COVID-19 vaccination inequality in low-income countries, there is need to expand COVAX facility, waive intellectual property rights, transform knowledge and technology acquired into vaccines, and conduct mass COVID-19 vaccination campaigns.


COVID-19 Vaccines , COVID-19 , Healthcare Disparities , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage , Africa , Developing Countries
7.
Pan Afr Med J ; 46: 85, 2023.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38314236

Introduction: although countries in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) show progress in implementing various forms of health insurance, there is a dearth of information regarding health insurance in settings like Malawi. Therefore, we conducted this study to determine the uptake of health insurance and describe some of the factors associated with the prevailing uptake of health insurance in Malawi using the 2019-2020 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS). Methods: this was a secondary analysis of the 2019-2020 MICS data. Data were analysed using frequencies and weighted percentages in Stata v.17. Furthermore, since the number of persons with health insurance is very small, we were unable to perform multivariate analysis. Results: a total of 205 (1%) of the 31259 had health insurance in Malawi in 2019-2020. Of the 205 individuals who owned health insurance, 118 (47%) had health insurance through their employers while 39 (16%) had health insurance through mutual health organizations or community-based. Men had a higher uptake of health insurance than women. The residents from urban areas were more likely to have health insurance than those in rural areas. Persons with media exposure were more likely to own health insurance as compared to their counterparts. There was an increasing trend in the uptake of health insurance by wealth of the individual with the poorest being less likely to have health insurance compared to the richest. The persons with no education were least likely to have health insurance while those with tertiary education were most likely to have health insurance. Conclusion: the uptake of health insurance in Malawi was extremely low. In order to increase the uptake of health insurance, there is a need to increase insurance coverage amongst those in formal employment, and consider minimizing the geographic, economic, and demographic barriers in accessing the health insurance.


Insurance, Health , Poverty , Male , Humans , Female , Malawi , Surveys and Questionnaires , Educational Status
8.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 28(13): S76-S84, 2022 12.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36502413

To determine early COVID-19 burden in Malawi, we conducted a multistage cluster survey in 5 districts. During October-December 2020, we recruited 5,010 community members (median age 32 years, interquartile range 21-43 years) and 1,021 health facility staff (HFS) (median age 35 years, interquartile range 28-43 years). Real-time PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence was 0.3% (95% CI 0.2%-0.5%) among community and 0.5% (95% CI 0.1%-1.2%) among HFS participants; seroprevalence was 7.8% (95% CI 6.3%-9.6%) among community and 9.7% (95% CI 6.4%-14.5%) among HFS participants. Most seropositive community (84.7%) and HFS (76.0%) participants were asymptomatic. Seroprevalence was higher among urban community (12.6% vs. 3.1%) and HFS (14.5% vs. 7.4%) than among rural community participants. Cumulative infection findings 113-fold higher from this survey than national statistics (486,771 vs. 4,319) and predominantly asymptomatic infections highlight a need to identify alternative surveillance approaches and predictors of severe disease to inform national response.


COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humans , Young Adult , Adult , COVID-19/epidemiology , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Health Personnel , Prevalence , Antibodies, Viral
9.
Front Reprod Health ; 4: 949458, 2022.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36303663

Background: Evidence suggests that Malawi continues to register substantial progress on key Family Planning (FP) indicators. However, FP adoption is still low among married youth (15-24 years old), only 38% of married girls use modern contraceptive methods coupled with high-unmet needs (22%) in the same age group. Objective: Identifying factors associated with long-acting (LARC) and short-acting (SARC) reversible contraceptive use among 10-24-years-old youth in Lilongwe, Malawi. Methodology: A retrospective study using secondary data from 64 youth outreach clinic sites in the Lilongwe district. A quantitative approach using secondary data that was analyzed in STATA version 14 was used. A sample of 14,954 youth who accessed FP and Reproductive Health (RH) services during youth outreach clinics were included in the study. Results: SARC uptake was higher than LARC (p < 0.01). Of the youths who accessed FP methods, LARC uptake was 25% (n = 3,735). Variations were noted in the uptake of LARC, especially on age, education level, client status occupation, and marital status. Factors associated with LARC uptake varied; new clients were almost twice likely to use LARC (AOR = 1.87, CI: 1.59-2.19, P < 0.01) while youth aged 20-24, the single, and student youth were less likely to use LARC. Compared to young women with formal occupations, students were less likely to use LARC (AOR = 0.30, CI: 0.158-0.58, P < 0.01). Related to the number of living children, youths with a living child were likely to use LARC (AOR = 6.40, CI: 3.91-10.48, P < 0.01). Conclusion: This study showed that LARC uptake in youth outreach clinics in Lilongwe is low, though increasing over time. In addition to this, this study shows that SARC uptake is high among youth compared to LARC. Furthermore, LARC uptake varied by age education, client status (new, existing, and unknown client), occupation, number of living children, and marital status, and there were variations in LARC uptake by the clinic. Current outreach services reach youth with LARC services, but gaps exist for underserved youths.

10.
BMJ Paediatr Open ; 6(1)2022 01.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36053628

BACKGROUND: Despite the availability of individual-level data of infants accessing HIV DNA-PCR testing service, there has been little in-depth analysis of such data. Therefore, we describe trends in risk of HIV infection among Malawi's HIV-exposed infants (HEI) with DNA-PCR HIV test result from 2013 to 2020. METHODS: This is an implementation study using routinely collected patient-level HIV DNA-PCR test result data extracted from the national Laboratory Management Information System database managed by the Department of HIV/AIDS between 1 January 2013 and 30 June 2020. We calculated frequencies, proportions and odds ratio (OR) with their associated 95% CI. We performed a random-effects logistic regression to determine the risk factors associated with HIV infection in infants, controlling for the spatial autocorrelation between districts and adjusting for other variables. RESULTS: We evaluated 255 229 HEI across 750 facilities in 28 districts. The HIV DNA-PCR test was performed within 2 months in 57% of the children. The overall HIV prevalence among all tested HEI between 2013 and 2020 was 7.2% (95% CI 7.1% to 7.3%). We observed a decreasing trend in the proportion of HEI that tested HIV positive from 7.0% (95% CI 6.6% to 7.4%) in 2013 to 5.7% (95% CI 5.4% to 5.9%) in 2015 followed by an increase to 9.9% (95% CI 9.6% to 10.2%) in 2017 and thereafter a decreasing trend between 2017 (i.e. 9.72% (95%CI: 9.43-10.01)) and 2020 (i.e. 3.86% (95%CI: 3.34-4.37)). The HIV prevalence increased by age of the HEI. There was spatial heterogeneity of HIV prevalence between districts of Malawi. The prevalence of HIV was higher among the HEI from the Northern region of Malawi. CONCLUSION: The main findings of the study are that the DNA test is performed within 2 months only in 57% of the children, that the decreasing trend of HIV prevalence among HEI observed up to 2015 was followed by an increase up to 2017 and a decrease afterwards, and that the risk of HIV infection increased with age at HIV testing. We summarised spatial and temporal trends of risk of HIV infection among HEI in Malawi between 2013 and 2020. There is need to ensure that all the HEI are enrolled in HIV care by 8 weeks of age in order to further reduce the risk of HIV in this population.


Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome , HIV Infections , Child , HIV Infections/diagnosis , Humans , Infant , Malawi/epidemiology , Prevalence , Risk Factors
11.
Inj Epidemiol ; 9(1): 21, 2022 Jul 12.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35821170

BACKGROUND: Road traffic injuries are a significant cause of death and disability globally. However, in some countries the exact health burden caused by road traffic injuries is unknown. In Malawi, there is no central reporting mechanism for road traffic injuries and so the exact extent of the health burden caused by road traffic injuries is hard to determine. A limited number of models predict the incidence of mortality due to road traffic injury in Malawi. These estimates vary greatly, owing to differences in assumptions, and so the health burden caused on the population by road traffic injuries remains unclear. METHODS: We use an individual-based model and combine an epidemiological model of road traffic injuries with a health seeking behaviour and health system model. We provide a detailed representation of road traffic injuries in Malawi, from the onset of the injury through to the final health outcome. We also investigate the effects of an assumption made by other models that multiple injuries do not contribute to health burden caused by road accidents. RESULTS: Our model estimates an overall average incidence of mortality between 23.5 and 29.8 per 100,000 person years due to road traffic injuries and an average of 180,000 to 225,000 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per year between 2010 and 2020 in an estimated average population size of 1,364,000 over the 10-year period. Our estimated incidence of mortality falls within the range of other estimates currently available for Malawi, whereas our estimated number of DALYs is greater than the only other estimate available for Malawi, the GBD estimate predicting and average of 126,200 DALYs per year over the same time period. Our estimates, which account for multiple injuries, predict a 22-58% increase in overall health burden compared to the model ran as a single injury model. CONCLUSIONS: Road traffic injuries are difficult to model with conventional modelling methods, owing to the numerous types of injuries that occur. Using an individual-based model framework, we can provide a detailed representation of road traffic injuries. Our results indicate a higher health burden caused by road traffic injuries than previously estimated.

12.
Trop Med Int Health ; 27(7): 639-646, 2022 07.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35622358

OBJECTIVE: To describe the prevalence of HIV viral suppression and assess the factors associated with HIV viral suppression among persons receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Malawi in 2021. METHODS: Implementation study using routinely collected patient-level HIV RNA-PCR test result data extracted from the national Laboratory Management Information System (LIMS) database managed by the Department of HIV/AIDS in 2021. We calculated frequencies, proportions and odds ratios (OR) of HIV viral suppression with their associated 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs). We performed a random-effects logistic regression to determine the risk factors associated with HIV viral suppression among ART patients, controlling for the spatial autocorrelation between districts and adjusting for other variables. RESULTS: We evaluated 515,797 adults and children receiving ART and having a viral load test in 2021. Of these, 92.8% had HIV viral suppression. ART patients living in urban areas had lower likelihood of HIV viral suppression than those living in rural areas (adjusted OR [aOR] = 0.95, 95%CI: 0.92-0.99, p = 0.01). There was an increasing trend in HIV viral suppression with increasing ART duration. Routine VL monitoring samples were 39% more likely to have suppressed VL values than confirmatory HIV VL monitoring samples (aOR = 1.39; 95%CI: 1.34-1.43, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: This is the first national analysis of Malawi HIV VL data from LIMS. Our findings show the need to particularly consider the urban residents, those below 20 years, males, those on ART for less than a year as well as those on specific ARV regimens in order to persistently suppress HIV VL and consequently achieve the goal of achieving HIV VL suppression by 2030.


Anti-HIV Agents , HIV Infections , Management Information Systems , Adult , Anti-HIV Agents/therapeutic use , Child , HIV Infections/epidemiology , Humans , Malawi/epidemiology , Male , Odds Ratio , Viral Load
13.
PLoS One ; 17(2): e0263650, 2022.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35134088

INTRODUCTION: In 2016, the WHO published recommendations increasing the number of recommended antenatal care (ANC) visits per pregnancy from four to eight. Prior to the implementation of this policy, coverage of four ANC visits has been suboptimal in many low-income settings. In this study we explore socio-demographic factors associated with early initiation of first ANC contact and attending at least four ANC visits ("ANC4+") in Malawi using the Malawi Demographic and Health Survey (MDHS) data collected between 2004 and 2016, prior to the implementation of new recommendations. METHODS: We combined data from the 2004-5, 2010 and 2015-16 MDHS using Stata version 16. Participants included all women surveyed between the ages of 15-49 who had given birth in the five years preceding the survey. We conducted weighted univariate, bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis of the effects of each of the predictor variables on the binary endpoint of the woman attending at least four ANC visits and having the first ANC attendance within or before the four months of pregnancy (ANC4+). To determine whether a factor was included in the model, the likelihood ratio test was used with a statistical significance of P< 0.05 as the threshold. RESULTS: We evaluated data collected in surveys in 2004/5, 2010 and 2015/6 from 26386 women who had given birth in the five years before being surveyed. The median gestational age, in months, at the time of presenting for the first ANC visit was 5 (inter quartile range: 4-6). The proportion of women initiating ANC4+ increased from 21.3% in 2004-5 to 38.8% in 2015-16. From multivariate analysis, there was increasing trend in ANC4+ from women aged 20-24 years (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.27, 95%CI:1.05-1.53, P = 0.01) to women aged 45-49 years (aOR = 1.91, 95%CI:1.18-3.09, P = 0.008) compared to those aged 15-19 years. Women from richest socio-economic position ((aOR = 1.32, 95%CI:1.12-1.58, P<0.001) were more likely to demonstrate ANC4+ than those from low socio-economic position. Additionally, women who had completed secondary (aOR = 1.24, 95%CI:1.02-1.51, P = 0.03) and tertiary (aOR = 2.64, 95%CI:1.65-4.22, P<0.001) education were more likely to report having ANC4+ than those with no formal education. Conversely increasing parity was associated with a reduction in likelihood of ANC4+ with women who had previously delivered 2-3 (aOR = 0.74, 95%CI:0.63-0.86, P<0.001), 4-5 (aOR = 0.65, 95%CI:0.53-0.80, P<0.001) or greater than 6 (aOR = 0.61, 95%CI: 0.47-0.79, <0.001) children being less likely to demonstrate ANC4+. CONCLUSION: The proportion of women reporting ANC4+ and of key ANC interventions in Malawi have increased significantly since 2004. However, we found that most women did not access the recommended number of ANC visits in Malawi, prior to the 2016 WHO policy change which may mean that women are less likely to undertake the 2016 WHO recommendation of 8 contacts per pregnancy. Additionally, our results highlighted significant variation in coverage according to key socio-demographic variables which should be considered when devising national strategies to ensure that all women access the appropriate frequency of ANC visits during their pregnancy.


Prenatal Care/psychology , Prenatal Care/statistics & numerical data , Prenatal Care/trends , Adolescent , Adult , Demography , Educational Status , Female , Humans , Malawi/epidemiology , Middle Aged , Patient Acceptance of Health Care/statistics & numerical data , Pregnancy , Pregnant Women , Sociodemographic Factors , Socioeconomic Factors , Young Adult
14.
BMJ Open ; 11(7): e045196, 2021 07 22.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34301651

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 mitigation strategies have been challenging to implement in resource-limited settings due to the potential for widespread disruption to social and economic well-being. Here we predict the clinical severity of COVID-19 in Malawi, quantifying the potential impact of intervention strategies and increases in health system capacity. METHODS: The infection fatality ratios (IFR) were predicted by adjusting reported IFR for China, accounting for demography, the current prevalence of comorbidities and health system capacity. These estimates were input into an age-structured deterministic model, which simulated the epidemic trajectory with non-pharmaceutical interventions and increases in health system capacity. FINDINGS: The predicted population-level IFR in Malawi, adjusted for age and comorbidity prevalence, is lower than that estimated for China (0.26%, 95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.12%-0.69%, compared with 0.60%, 95% CI 0.4% to 1.3% in China); however, the health system constraints increase the predicted IFR to 0.83%, 95% UI 0.49%-1.39%. The interventions implemented in January 2021 could potentially avert 54 400 deaths (95% UI 26 900-97 300) over the course of the epidemic compared with an unmitigated outbreak. Enhanced shielding of people aged ≥60 years could avert 40 200 further deaths (95% UI 25 300-69 700) and halve intensive care unit admissions at the peak of the outbreak. A novel therapeutic agent which reduces mortality by 0.65 and 0.8 for severe and critical cases, respectively, in combination with increasing hospital capacity, could reduce projected mortality to 2.5 deaths per 1000 population (95% UI 1.9-3.6). CONCLUSION: We find the interventions currently used in Malawi are unlikely to effectively prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission but will have a significant impact on mortality. Increases in health system capacity and the introduction of novel therapeutics are likely to further reduce the projected numbers of deaths.


COVID-19 , China/epidemiology , Humans , Malawi/epidemiology , Models, Theoretical , SARS-CoV-2
15.
Trop Med Int Health ; 25(12): 1486-1495, 2020 12.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32981174

OBJECTIVE: To characterise health seeking behaviour (HSB) and determine its predictors amongst children in Malawi in 2016. METHODS: We used the 2016 Malawi Integrated Household Survey data set. The outcome of interest was HSB, defined as seeking care at a health facility amongst people who reported one or more of a list of possible symptoms given on the questionnaire in the past two weeks. We fitted a multivariate logistic regression model of HSB using a forward step-wise selection method, with age, sex and symptoms entered as a priori variables. RESULTS: Of 5350 children, 1666 (32%) had symptoms in the past two weeks. Of the 1666, 1008 (61%) sought care at health facility. The children aged 5-14 years were less likely to be taken to health facilities for health care than those aged 0-4 years. Having fever vs. not having fever and having a skin problem vs. not having skin problem were associated with increased likelihood of HSB. Having a headache vs. not having a headache was associated with lower likelihood of accessing care at health facilities (AOR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.26-0.96, P = 0.04). Children from urban areas were more likely to be taken to health facilities for health care (AOR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.17-2.85, P = 0.008), as were children from households with a high wealth status (AOR = 1.86, 95% CI: 1.25-2.78, P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: There is a need to understand and address individual, socio-economic and geographical barriers to health seeking to increase access and use of health care and fast-track progress towards Universal Health Coverage.


OBJECTIF: Caractériser le comportement de recherche de santé (CRS) et déterminer ses prédicteurs chez les enfants du Malawi en 2016. MÉTHODES: Nous avons utilisé l'ensemble de données de l'Enquête intégrée de 2016 auprès des ménages du Malawi. Le résultat d'intérêt était le CRS, défini comme la recherche de soins dans un établissement de santé chez les personnes qui ont déclaré une ou plusieurs symptômes d'une liste de possibilités figurant sur le questionnaire, dans les deux dernières semaines. Nous avons appliqué un modèle de régression logistique multivariée du CRS en utilisant une méthode de sélection par étape, avec l'âge, le sexe et les symptômes entrés comme variables a priori. RÉSULTATS: Sur 5.350 enfants, 1.666 (32%) ont présenté des symptômes au cours des deux dernières semaines. Sur les 1.666, des soins ont été cherché pour 1.008 (61%) dans un établissement de santé. Les enfants âgés de 5 à 14 ans étaient moins susceptibles d'être emmenés dans des établissements de santé pour des soins de santé que ceux âgés de 0 à 4 ans. Avoir de la fièvre par rapport à ne pas en avoir et avoir un problème de peau par rapport à ne pas en avoir étaient associés à une probabilité accrue de CRS. Avoir un mal de tête par rapport à ne pas en avoir était associé à une probabilité plus faible d'accéder aux soins dans les établissements de santé (AOR = 0,50 ; IC95%: 0,26-0,96 ; P= 0,04). Les enfants des zones urbaines étaient plus susceptibles d'être emmenés dans des établissements de santé pour des soins de santé (AOR = 1,81 ; IC95%: 1,17-2,85 ; P= 0,008), tout comme les enfants de ménages ayant une position socioéconomique plus élevée (AOR = 1,96 ; IC95%: 1,13-3,40 ; P= 0,02). CONCLUSION: Il est nécessaire de comprendre et de surmonter les obstacles individuels, socioéconomiques et géographiques à la recherche de la santé pour accroître l'accès et l'utilisation des soins de santé et accélérer les progrès vers la couverture sanitaire universelle.


Needs Assessment , Patient Acceptance of Health Care/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Child , Child, Preschool , Cross-Sectional Studies , Family Characteristics , Female , Fever/diagnosis , Fever/therapy , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Logistic Models , Malawi/epidemiology , Male , Multivariate Analysis , Skin Diseases/diagnosis , Skin Diseases/therapy , Socioeconomic Factors , Surveys and Questionnaires
16.
Malawi Med J ; 32(4): 184-191, 2020 12.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34457202

Introduction: Miners in sub-Saharan Africa have a greater risk of tuberculosis (TB) than any other working population in the world. In spite of the presence of large and vulnerable population of miners in Malawi, no previous study has aimed to assess the burden of TB among these miners. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and health-seeking behaviour (HSB) in a population of miners in Malawi, and a range of associated factors. Our goal was to develop a method to identify missing cases of TB. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study in the Karonga, Rumphi, Kasungu and Lilongwe districts of Malawi in 2019. We calculated frequencies, proportions, odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), and used the chi-square test in STATA version15.1 to investigate the burden and magnitude of PTB in the mining sector. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were also fitted for PTB and HSB. Results: Of the 2400 miners approached, we were able to interview 2013 (84%). Of these, 1435 (71%) were males, 1438 (71%) had known HIV status and 272 (14%) had PTB. Multivariate analysis showed that the miners performing informal mining were 50% more likely to develop PTB compared with those in formal mining (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=1.50, 95% CI: 1.10-2.05, P=0.01). A total of 459 (23% of 2013) miners had presumptive TB. Of these, 120 (26%) sought health care; 80% sought health care at health facilities. Multivariate analysis also showed that miners who experienced night sweats were less likely to seek health care compared with those without night sweats (AOR=0.52, 95% CI: 0.30-0.90, P=0.02). Conclusion: The prevalence of PTB was higher among miners than in the general population. Consequently, targeted TB screening programmes for miners may represent a suitable strategy to adopt if we are to end TB by 2030. Poor health-seeking behaviours among miners is worrisome and further qualitative research is necessary to understand the barriers to accessing health care in these settings.


Mining , Occupational Diseases/epidemiology , Tuberculosis, Pulmonary/epidemiology , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Malawi/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Prevalence , Young Adult
17.
Malawi Med J ; 32(4): 205-212, 2020 12.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34457205

Introduction: Health seeking behaviour (HSB) refers to actions taken by individuals who are ill in order to find appropriate remedy. Most studies on HSB have only examined one symptom or covered only a specific geographical location within a country. In this study, we used a representative sample of adults to explore the factors associated with HSB in response to 30 symptoms reported by adult Malawians in 2016. Methods: We used the 2016 Malawi Integrated Household Survey dataset. We fitted a multilevel logistic regression model of likelihood of 'seeking care at a health facility' using a forward step-wise selection method, with age, sex and reported symptoms entered as a priori variables. We calculated the odds ratios (ORs) and their associated 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). We set the level of statistical significance at P < 0.05. Results: Of 6909 adults included in the survey, 1907 (29%) reported symptoms during the 2 weeks preceding the survey. Of these, 937 (57%) sought care at a health facility. Adults in urban areas were more likely to seek health care at a health facility than those in rural areas (AOR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.19-2.30, P = 0.003). Females had a higher likelihood of seeking care from health facilities than males (AOR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.03-1.59, P = 0.029). Being of higher wealth status was associated with a higher likelihood of seeking care from a health facility (AOR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.16-2.16, P = 0.004). Having fever and eye problems were associated with higher likelihood of seeking care at a health facility, while having headache, stomach ache and respiratory tract infections were associated with lower likelihood of seeking care at a health facility. Conclusion: This study has shown that there is a need to understand and address individual, socioeconomic and geographical barriers to health seeking to increase access and appropriate use of health care and fast-track progress towards Universal Health Coverage among the adult population.


Health Behavior/ethnology , Health Facilities/statistics & numerical data , Health Status Disparities , Patient Acceptance of Health Care/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Health Services Accessibility , Health Status , Humans , Male , Patient Acceptance of Health Care/ethnology , Socioeconomic Factors , Surveys and Questionnaires
19.
PLoS One ; 13(6): e0198798, 2018.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29897961

As access to antiretroviral therapy increases, more HIV-infected patients in sub-Saharan Africa may desire fertility. We conducted a cross-sectional study of reproductive health knowledge, attitudes and practices to identify factors associated with desired fertility among women and men receiving care at two large public HIV clinics in Lilongwe, Malawi. Research assistants administered questionnaires to participants. We performed descriptive, bivariable and multivariable analysis of factors related to desired fertility and of factors related to contraceptive non-use among participants who did not desire fertility. One-third of participants desired future children. Having a partner who desired fertility and having lower parity were associated with desiring children among both genders. For women, believing that pregnancy was unhealthy was associated with decreased fertility desire. Fifty-five percent of women and 69% of men who did not want children in the future reported using contraception at last intercourse. Increasing age, lower parity, and making the decision to use contraception herself were associated with contraceptive non-use among women who did not desire fertility. Having discussed family planning with his partner was associated with contraceptive use among men who did not desire fertility. Knowledge of these factors can guide reproductive health counseling and service provision.


Fertility , HIV Infections/psychology , Adolescent , Adult , Anti-Retroviral Agents/therapeutic use , Contraception Behavior , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , HIV Infections/diagnosis , HIV Infections/drug therapy , Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice , Humans , Malawi , Male , Middle Aged , Qualitative Research , Surveys and Questionnaires , Young Adult
20.
BMJ Sex Reprod Health ; 44(1): 1-12, 2018 Jan.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29248899

BACKGROUND: Understanding the influences on condom use among men and women living with HIV is critical to tailoring sexually transmitted infection/HIV prevention efforts. METHODS: This is a sub-analysis of a cross-sectional survey including 255 women and 220 men who were sexually active, HIV-positive, and attending HIV care visits in Lilongwe, Malawi. We estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) to evaluate for factors associated with consistent condom use (always using condoms in the past month) and use at last coitus for men and women in separate models. RESULTS: Among women: 38% and 55% reported consistent condom use and condom use at last coitus, respectively. For women, consistent use and use at last coitus were positively associated with the ability to refuse sex without condoms and shared decision-making compared with making the decision alone regarding condom use, and negatively associated with desire for children in the future. Consistent use also increased with longer antiretroviral therapy (ART) use (≥1 year compared with no ART use). Among men: 51% and 69% reported consistent condom use and condom use at last coitus, respectively. For men, the ability to refuse sex without condoms was associated with consistent use and use at last coitus, and believing that condoms should be used with other contraception was associated with consistent use. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate ongoing low condom utilisation among HIV-positive individuals, and highlight that ART and contraceptive use do not deter condom use. Efforts to increase condom utilisation must recognise individual-level factors that influence use and should focus on relationship dynamics and promotion of empowerment and self-efficacy.

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