Association between dynapenic obesity and risk of cardiovascular disease: The Hisayama study.

BACKGROUND: Dynapenic obesity is a condition characterized by high adiposity levels combined with muscle dysfunction. Although high adiposity and muscle loss/dysfunction are thought to synergistically increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), few studies have addressed the association between dynapenic and sarcopenic obesity and CVD. We aimed to investigate the association of dynapenic obesity with incident CVD events using the data from a population-based prospective longitudinal study in Japan. METHODS: A total of 2490 community-dwelling Japanese aged 40-79 years (42.5% males, mean age 57.7 ± 10.6 years) without a history of CVD were followed up for a median of 24 years. Handgrip strength was classified as low, medium, or high by age- and sex-specific tertiles. Body mass index (BMI) levels were categorized as lean (<18.5 kg/m2), normal (18.5-24.9 kg/m2), or obese (≥25.0 kg/m2). Dynapenic obesity was defined as having both low handgrip strength and obesity. The outcomes were defined as the first-ever development of CVD (defined as stroke or coronary heart disease). The hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the development of CVD were estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model, in which participants with high handgrip strength and normal BMI were used as a reference group. Mediation analyses used serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) as mediators. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 482 participants developed CVD events (324 cases of stroke and 209 of coronary heart disease). The multivariable-adjusted risk of CVD increased significantly among participants with dynapenic obesity compared with the reference group (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.03-2.17). An analysis by age groups showed a further increase in the risk of CVD among participants with dynapenic obesity aged less than 65 years (HR 1.66, 95% CI 1.04-2.65). In mediation analyses for participants aged less than 65 years, serum hs-CRP was shown to be a significant mediator explaining 13.8% of the association between dynapenic obesity and the development of CVD, while HOMA-IR explained 12.2% of this relationship. CONCLUSIONS: Dynapenic obesity was a significant risk factor for the development of CVD in a general Japanese population. This association was more pronounced among those aged <65 years. Inflammation, and possibly glucose metabolism, might partly mediate this association. Our findings suggest that preventing muscle dysfunction as well as appropriate weight control, especially in middle-age, are important for preventing the development of CVD.

Skin carotenoid scores and metabolic syndrome in a general Japanese population: the Hisayama study.

BACKGROUND: Higher vegetable intake is being promoted as an initiative to prevent lifestyle-related diseases. Carotenoids are yellow or red pigment components and are widely present in vegetables. Since ingested carotenoids accumulate in the skin, skin carotenoid levels are a quantitative indicator of vegetable intake. Recently, noninvasive optical sensors for assessing skin carotenoid levels were developed. We here examined the association between skin carotenoid scores measured using optical sensors and the presence of metabolic syndrome. METHODS: A total of 1618 individuals (604 men and 1014 women) aged ≥ 40 years (mean age 63.1 years) participated in the study. Skin carotenoid scores were determined using a noninvasive optical sensor based on multiple spatially resolved reflectance spectroscopy. Metabolic syndrome was defined based on the Joint Scientific Statement criteria developed by six international scientific societies. Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models were used. RESULTS: The prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 31.3% (n = 506). A remarkably strong association was found between higher skin carotenoid scores and lower prevalence of metabolic syndrome after adjusting for confounders. The multivariable-adjusted odds ratio for the presence of metabolic syndrome in individuals with the highest quartile of skin carotenoid scores was 0.39 (95% confidence interval, 0.28-0.55) compared to those with the lowest quartile. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that higher skin carotenoid scores measured by non-invasive optimal sensors are significantly associated with a lower likelihood of having metabolic syndrome in the general Japanese population.

Database profile of the Fukuoka-City Information Platform for Community-based Integrated Care.

BACKGROUND: The Fukuoka-City Information Platform for Community-based Integrated Care is an advanced big data platform that aggregates information on the health and medical services of Fukuoka citizens. Fukuoka City is engaged in a joint project with Kyushu University to promote policy making through a large-scale real-world data analysis. This paper describes the framework for this cooperative effort and the features of the analytical platform. METHODS: Fukuoka City is the fifth most populous ordinance-designated city in Japan, with an estimated population of approximately 1.6 million. Under an agreement with Fukuoka City, Kyushu University was granted access to a portion of the city's anonymized healthcare database as secondary-use information. The database contains information on resident registration, health insurance claims, specific health checkups and health checkups for the older adults, specific health guidance, long-term care insurance data, and cancer screenings collected after fiscal year 2012. Each of these constituent datasets can be interlinked using anonymized hashed key variables, allowing individuals to be followed across databases and over time. CONCLUSIONS: The platform allows longitudinal investigation of the complex association between various aspects of healthcare, such as medical procedures, examinations, interviews, medical costs, long-term care certifications, and care costs. The platform can provide valuable public-health information because it is relatively large for a single database, and because it allows analysis of data across multiple domains and tracing of individuals over time.

Sleep-related breathing disorder in a Japanese occupational population and its association with hypertension-stratified analysis by obesity status.

Sleep-related breathing disorder (SRBD) causes hypertension, and obesity has been highly associated with SRBD, which has become a serious health problem in young and middle-aged Japanese males. However, the relation between SRBD and hypertension considering the effects of obesity remains unknown. In this cross-sectional study, we examined the relationship between SRBD and hypertension, with consideration for the effects of obesity, in Japanese occupational population. Using 3% oxygen desaturation index (3%ODI) obtained by simplified polysomnography (PSG), participants were classified into low (0 ≤ 3%ODI < 5), medium (5 ≤ 3%ODI < 15), and high (15 ≤ 3%ODI) 3%ODI groups. We excluded employees who had not undergone medical examination with simplified PSG in the same year from 2012 to 2018. Logistic regression analysis was performed to calculate odds ratios for having hypertension according to 3%ODI levels. In total, 2532 employees were included. Among them, 25% and 4% were categorized into the medium and high 3%ODI groups, respectively. The odds ratio for hypertension increased significantly with higher 3%ODI levels after adjustment for age, sex, alcohol drinking status and smoking status (p for trend < 0.0001). However, further adjustment for obesity status (body mass index ≥ 25 kg/m2) attenuated the associations. When we performed the stratified analysis by obesity status, the odds ratio for hypertension increased significantly with higher 3%ODI only for non-obese individuals, with significant interaction (p for interaction = 0.014). Higher 3%ODI was significantly associated with higher prevalence of hypertension especially in non-obese participants, suggesting the importance of vigilance for the presence of SRBD even in non-obese individuals. We investigated the association between SRBD and hypertension considering the effects of obesity, which would suggest the need to keep in mind the presence of SRBD even in non-obese individuals.

Day-to-day home blood pressure variability and risk of atrial fibrillation in a general Japanese population: the Hisayama Study.

AIMS: Several prospective studies have reported that higher visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BPV) is associated with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, no studies have investigated the association between day-to-day BPV assessed by home blood pressure measurement and the development of AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 2829 community-dwelling Japanese aged ≥40 years without prior AF were followed up for 10 years (2007-17). Day-to-day home BPV [defined as coefficient of variation (CoV) of home systolic blood pressure (SBP) for 28 days] was categorized into four groups according to the quartiles: Q1, ≤ 4.64%; Q2, 4.65-5.70%; Q3, 5.71-7.01%; Q4, ≥ 7.02%. The hazard ratios for developing AF were estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model. During the follow-up period, 134 participants developed new-onset AF. The crude incidence rates of AF increased significantly with higher CoV levels of home SBP: 2.1, 4.9, 5.2, and 8.8 per 1000 person-years in the first, second, third, and fourth quartiles, respectively (P for trend < 0.01). After adjusting for potential confounders, increased CoV levels of home SBP were associated significantly with a higher risk of AF (P for trend = 0.02). The participants in the highest quartile of CoV had a 2.20-fold (95% confidence intervals: 1.18-4.08) increased risk of developing AF compared with those in the lowest quartile. CONCLUSION: The present findings suggest that increased day-to-day home BPV levels are associated with a higher risk of the development of AF in a general Japanese population.

This prospective cohort study of a general Japanese population demonstrated a significant association between higher day-to-day blood pressure variability (BPV) assessed by home blood pressure monitoring and risk for the development of atrial fibrillation (AF). In addition, the association between BPV and the development of AF tended to be stronger in participants without hypertension. The findings of this study indicate that the evaluation of day-to-day BPV with home blood pressure monitoring may be useful to assess the future risk of AF in participants with and without hypertension, and treatment that takes into account day-to-day BPV in addition to other cardiovascular risk factors may be necessary to prevent the development of AF.

Changes in the Eicosapentaenoic Acid to Arachidonic Acid Ratio in Serum over 10 Years in a Japanese Community: The Hisayama Study.

AIM: Circulating omega-3 and omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids may to contribute to cardiovascular health at the population level. Over a decade, we investigated changes in the serum eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) to arachidonic acid (AA) ratio, and in serum concentrations of the individual fatty acids, in a Japanese community. METHODS: Community surveys took place in 2002-2003 and 2012-2013 in a rural area of Japan. The community surveys included 3,194 and 3,220 community dwellers aged ≥ 40 years who did not take EPA medication in 2002-2003 and 2012-2013, respectively. Fatty acid fractionations in serum were measured using a gas chromatography method. Changes in the serum EPA/AA ratio over time were examined using linear mixed models. RESULTS: Overall, the average serum EPA/AA ratio decreased over the 10 years. A decreasing trend in the serum EPA/AA ratio occurred in all age groups except participants aged ≥ 80 years, with larger decreases in the younger age groups. A similar decline in serum EPA/AA ratio occurred in participants with and those without lipid-lowering therapy. Serum EPA concentrations were slightly increased in the whole population but remained stable or even decreased in participants aged 40-69. In contrast, the average serum AA concentrations increased in all age groups. CONCLUSION: In a Japanese community, the serum EPA/AA ratio decreased over 10 years at the population level, especially in middle-aged participants.

Serum lipopolysaccharide-binding protein levels and the incidence of metabolic syndrome in a general Japanese population: the Hisayama Study.

BACKGROUND: The association between chronic lipopolysaccharide exposure and the development of metabolic syndrome (MetS) is unclear. In this study we examined the association between serum lipopolysaccharide-binding protein (LBP) levels, an indicator of lipopolysaccharide exposure, and the development of MetS in a general Japanese population. METHODS: 1,869 community-dwelling Japanese individuals aged ≥40 years without MetS at baseline examination in 2002-2003 were followed up by repeated examination in 2007-2008. MetS was defined according to the Japanese criteria. Serum LBP levels were classified into quartiles (quartiles 1-4: 2.20-9.56, 9.57-10.78, 10.79-12.18, and 12.19-24.34 µg/mL, respectively). Odds ratios (ORs) for developing MetS were calculated using a logistic regression model. RESULTS: At the follow-up survey, 159 participants had developed MetS. Higher serum LBP levels were associated with greater risk of developing MetS after multivariable adjustment for age, sex, smoking, drinking, and exercise habits (OR [95% confidence interval] for quartiles 1-4: 1.00 [reference], 2.92 [1.59-5.37], 3.48 [1.91-6.35], and 3.86 [2.12-7.03], respectively; P for trend <0.001). After additional adjustment for homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, this association was attenuated but remained significant (P for trend=0.007). On the other hand, no significant association was observed after additional adjustment for serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (P for trend=0.07). CONCLUSIONS: In the general Japanese population, our findings suggest that higher serum LBP levels are associated with elevated risk of developing MetS. Low-grade endotoxemia could play a role in the development of MetS through systemic chronic inflammation and insulin resistance.

Day-to-Day Blood Pressure Variability and Risk of Incident Chronic Kidney Disease in a General Japanese Population.

Background Several longitudinal studies have reported that higher visit-to-visit blood pressure variability is associated with greater risk for developing chronic kidney disease. However, no population-based studies have investigated the association between day-to-day home blood pressure variability and incident chronic kidney disease. Methods and Results A total of 2342 Japanese community-dwelling residents aged ≥40 years without chronic kidney disease at baseline were followed up by annual health examinations for 10 years. Home blood pressure was measured 3 times every morning for 28 days. Day-to-day coefficients of variation of home systolic blood pressure levels were categorized into quintiles. Chronic kidney disease was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 or the presence of proteinuria. The hazard ratios for developing chronic kidney disease were estimated with a Cox proportional hazards model. During the follow-up period, 772 participants developed chronic kidney disease. Increased coefficients of variation of home systolic blood pressure were associated significantly with higher risk of chronic kidney disease after adjusting for confounders (P for trend <0.001): Individuals in the highest quintile of coefficients of variation had a 1.50-fold (95% CI, 1.17-1.94) greater risk of developing chronic kidney disease than those in the lowest quintile. The combination of higher coefficients of variation and higher mean value of home systolic blood pressure was associated with the multivariable-adjusted risk of developing chronic kidney disease. Conclusions These findings suggest that increased day-to-day blood pressure variability is a significant risk factor for developing chronic kidney disease in a general Japanese population.

Active commuting, commuting modes and the risk of diabetes: 14-year follow-up data from the Hisayama study.

AIMS/INTRODUCTION: We aimed to investigate the association of active commuting (cycling or walking to work), as well as the association of the individual commuting modes, with the risk of diabetes in a prospective cohort of community-dwelling adults in Japan. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 1,270 residents aged 40-79 years were followed up for a median of 14 years. Active commuting was defined as either cycling or walking to work. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine the association of active commuting with the risk of diabetes. Associations for different forms of active commuting (cycling, walking and mixed modes of cycling or walking with non-active components) were also examined. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 191 participants developed diabetes. Active commuting was associated with a lower risk of diabetes than non-active commuting after adjustment for potential confounders (hazard ratio [HR] 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.31-0.92). With regard to the commuting modes, the risk of diabetes was significantly lower in individuals who commuted by cycling alone (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.22-0.98), and tended to be lower in individuals who commuted by walking alone (HR 0.14, 95% CI 0.02-1.02) compared with that in individuals with non-active commuting. Meanwhile, no significant associations were observed for the mixed mode of walking and non-active commuting (HR 1.69, 95% CI 0.77-3.71). CONCLUSIONS: Active commuting, particularly that consisting exclusively of cycling or walking, was associated with a reduced risk of diabetes. Our findings support a public health policy that promotes the choice of active commuting for the prevention of diabetes.

Long-term association of vegetable and fruit intake with risk of dementia in Japanese older adults: the Hisayama study.

BACKGROUND: Several prospective Western studies have reported an inverse association of vegetable and fruit intake with dementia risk. However, there is limited epidemiologic evidence in Asians. This study investigated the association of intakes of vegetables, fruits, and their nutrients on the risk of incident dementia and its subtypes in a Japanese community. METHODS: A total of 1071 participants (452 men and 619 women) aged ≥60 years without dementia at baseline were prospectively followed up for 24 years. Intakes of vegetables, fruits, and nutrients were evaluated using a 70-item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire at baseline and were categorized into quartiles separately by gender. The outcome measure was the development of dementia and its subtypes-namely, Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VaD). The risk estimates of incident dementia were computed using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: During the long-term follow-up period, 464 subjects developed dementia, of whom 286 had AD and 144 had VaD. Higher vegetable intake was associated gradually with lower risk of developing dementia and AD (both P-trend < 0.05), but not VaD, after adjusting for confounders. Subjects allocated the highest quartile of vegetable intake had 27 and 31% lower risk of dementia and AD, respectively, than those with the lowest quartile. The risk of dementia decreased significantly with higher intakes of vitamin A, riboflavin, vitamin C, magnesium, calcium, and potassium (all P-trend < 0.05). Subjects with higher total dietary fiber intake tended to be at decreased risk for total dementia (P-trend = 0.07). Meanwhile, there were no significant associations between fruit intake and the risk of dementia and its subtypes. CONCLUSION: Higher intakes of vegetables and their constituent nutrients were associated with a lower risk of dementia in Japanese older adults. A diet rich in vegetables may be beneficial in reducing the dementia risk in Asians.

Serum Uric Acid Levels and Nephrosclerosis in a Population-Based Autopsy Study: The Hisayama Study.

INTRODUCTION: Information regarding the influence of serum uric acid (SUA) levels on pathological changes in the kidney is limited. In this study, we examined the association between SUA levels and pathological findings of nephrosclerosis in population-based autopsy samples. METHODS: A total of 923 deceased individuals in a Japanese community underwent autopsy examinations between 1974 and 1994. Of these, 547 individuals with available kidney tissues and health examination data within a median of 3 years before death were eligible for the present study. SUA levels were categorized into quintiles (Q1, 107-237; Q2, 238-279; Q3, 280-326; Q4, 327-380; Q5, 381-755 µmol/L). Advanced degrees of glomerular sclerosis, kidney arteriolar hyalinosis, and kidney arteriosclerosis were defined as the 90th percentile or more of a glomerular sclerosis index and an arteriolar hyalinosis index, and the 10th percentile or less of a wall-lumen ratio, respectively. A logistic regression model was used to evaluate odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of SUA levels on each kidney lesion. RESULTS: Higher SUA levels were significantly associated with higher values of the age- and sex-adjusted glomerular sclerosis index and lower values of the wall-lumen ratio (both p for trend <0.01). Individuals in the Q5 group had a significantly greater likelihood of advanced glomerular sclerosis (OR 7.19, 95% CI 2.42-21.38) and advanced kidney arteriosclerosis (OR 5.28, 95% CI 1.77-15.80) than individuals in the Q1 group after adjusting for potential covariates. There was no evidence of significant associations of SUA levels with either the arteriolar hyalinosis index or the presence of advanced arteriolar hyalinosis. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated SUA levels were significantly associated with advanced glomerular sclerosis and advanced kidney arteriosclerosis, but not with advanced arteriolar hyalinosis in community-based autopsy samples of Japanese.

Long-Term Trends in The 5-Year Risk of Recurrent Stroke over A Half Century in A Japanese Community: The Hisayama Study.

AIM: Secular trends in the risk of recurrent stroke have been reported in several epidemiological studies worldwide, but this issue has not been investigated in general Japanese populations. We examined the trends in the 5-year risk of recurrent stroke over a half century using community-based prospective data in Japan. METHODS: We established 4 cohort studies in 1961, 1974, 1988, and 2002. To examine the risk of recurrent stroke, participants who developed stroke during a 10-year follow-up period in each cohort were followed-up for 5 years from the date of first onset. A total of 154 (first sub-cohort: 1961-1971), 144 (second sub-cohort: 1974-1984), 172 (third sub-cohort: 1988-1998), and 146 (fourth sub-cohort: 2002-2012) participants from each cohort were enrolled in the present study. The 5-year cumulative risk of recurrent stroke was compared among the sub-cohorts using the Kaplan-Meier method and the age- and sex-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: The risks of recurrent stroke after any stroke and ischemic stroke decreased significantly from the first to the third sub-cohort, but they did not clearly change from the third to the fourth sub-cohort. The risk of recurrent stroke after hemorrhagic stroke decreased mainly from the first to the second sub-cohort and there was no apparent decrease from the second to the fourth sub-cohort. These trends were substantially unchanged after adjusting for age and sex. CONCLUSIONS: In the Japanese community, the risk of recurrent stroke decreased mainly from the 1960s to 1990s, but there was no apparent decrease in recent years.

Changes in Body Weight and Concurrent Changes in Cardiovascular Risk Profiles in Community Residents in Japan: the Hisayama Study.

AIM: We investigated the influence of weight change on concurrent changes in predicted cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and individual CVD risk factors over time. METHODS: A total of 2,140 community-dwellers aged 40-74 years participated in both 2002 and 2007 health examinations. Obesity was defined as body mass index ≥ 25 kg/m2. Weight trajectories were classified as: "stable obese" (obese at both examinations), "obese to nonobese" (obese in 2002 but nonobese in 2007), "nonobese to obese" (nonobese in 2002 but obese in 2007), or "stable nonobese" (nonobese at both examinations). We compared changes in the model-predicted risk for CVD and individual CVD risk factors across weight-change categories. RESULTS: The predicted risk for CVD increased during 5 years in all groups; the increment in the predicted risk for CVD was smallest in the obese to nonobese participants and steepest in the nonobese to obese subjects. Compared with the stable obese participants, the obese to nonobese participants had greater favorable changes in waist circumferences, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, serum triglycerides, and liver enzymes. For all these parameters, opposite trends were observed when comparing the nonobese to obese participants with the stable nonobese group. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated the favorable association of losing weight in obese people and avoiding excessive weight gain in nonobese people with global risk of future CVD and individual CVD risk factors in a real-world setting. The findings could improve behavioral lifestyle interventions that provide information on the health consequences of weight change at health checkups.

Development of a dementia prediction model for primary care: The Hisayama Study.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to develop a risk prediction model for incident dementia using predictors that are available in primary-care settings. METHODS: A total of 795 subjects aged 65 years or over were prospectively followed-up from 1988 to 2012. A Cox proportional-hazards regression was used to develop a multivariable prediction model. The developed model was translated into a simplified scoring system based on the beta-coefficient. The discrimination of the model was assessed by Harrell's C statistic, and the calibration was assessed by a calibration plot. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 364 subjects developed dementia. In the multivariable model, age, female sex, low education, leanness, hypertension, diabetes, history of stroke, current smoking, and sedentariness were selected as predictors. The developed model and simplified score showed good discrimination and calibration. DISCUSSION: The developed risk prediction model is feasible and practically useful in primary-care settings to identify individuals at high risk for future dementia.

Development of a risk prediction model for incident hypertension in Japanese individuals: the Hisayama Study.

The identification of individuals at high risk of developing hypertension can be of great value to improve the efficiency of primary prevention strategies for hypertension. The objective of this study was to develop a risk prediction model for incident hypertension based on prospective longitudinal data from a general Japanese population. A total of 982 subjects aged 40-59 years without hypertension at baseline were followed up for 10 years (2002-12) for the incidence of hypertension. Hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≥ 140 mmHg, diastolic blood pressure (DBP) ≥ 90 mmHg, or the use of antihypertensive agents. The risk prediction model was developed using a Cox proportional hazards model. A simple risk scoring system was also established based on the developed model. During the follow-up period (median 10 years, interquartile range 5-10 years), 302 subjects (120 men and 182 women) developed new-onset hypertension. The risk prediction model for hypertension consisted of age, sex, SBP, DBP, use of glucose-lowering agents, body mass index (BMI), parental history of hypertension, moderate-to-high alcohol intake, and the interaction between age and BMI. The developed model demonstrated good discrimination (Harrell's C statistic=0.812 [95% confidence interval, 0.791-0.834]; optimism-corrected C statistic based on 200 bootstrap samples=0.804) and calibration (Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino χ2 statistic=12.2). This risk prediction model is a useful guide for estimating an individual's absolute risk for hypertension and could facilitate the management of Japanese individuals at high risk of developing hypertension in the future.

Serum NT-proBNP levels and histopathological myocardial fibrosis in autopsied cases from a Japanese community: The Hisayama Study.

BACKGROUND: natriuretic peptide is associated with myocardial fibrosis in animal models and among patients with heart disease. However, it remains unclear whether serum N-terminal pro-B-type peptide (NT-proBNP) levels are associated with histopathologically proven myocardial fibrosis among individuals without apparent heart disease. This study aimed to evaluate the association between serum NT-proBNP levels and the histopathologically estimated myocardial fibrotic area in autopsied samples from a community. METHODS: we selected 63 cases without apparent heart disease with available data of serum NT-proBNP concentrations within six years before death (average age: 82 years; male: 52%) from autopsied cases in a community, and evaluated the percentage areas of myocardial fibrosis in four cardiac segments from each case (i.e. 252 cardiac segments in total). The association between serum NT-proBNP levels and the percentage area of myocardial fibrosis was estimated using a linear mixed model for repeated measures. RESULTS: serum NT-proBNP levels were positively correlated with myocardial fibrotic area [Pearson's correlation coefficient: r = 0.49 (95% confidence interval: 0.28-0.66), p <0.001]. Serum NT-proBNP levels were significantly associated with the percentage areas of myocardial fibrosis after adjusting for potential confounding factors. There was no evidence of heterogeneity in the association between the subgroups with and without reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (<60 mL/min/1.73 m2). CONCLUSIONS: the present study demonstrated that elevated serum NT-proBNP levels were associated with the histopathologically measured myocardial fibrotic area in autopsied cases from a community. These findings may help clarify the association between elevated serum NT-proBNP levels and myocardial fibrosis and their influence on prognosis.

N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide and Incident CKD.

INTRODUCTION: Serum N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels have been associated with the progression of kidney impairment among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), but only a few studies have investigated the association between serum NT-proBNP levels and incident CKD in general populations. METHODS: A total of 2486 Japanese community-dwelling residents ≥40 years of age without CKD at baseline were followed up by repeated annual health examinations for 10 years. Participants were divided into 4 groups according to serum NT-proBNP levels. CKD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.73m2 or the presence of proteinuria. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for risk of CKD. Linear mixed models were used to compare changes in eGFR. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 800 participants developed CKD. The multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) for developing CKD were 1.00 (reference), 1.32 (1.11-1.57), 1.40 (1.10-1.78), and 1.94 (1.38-2.73) for serum NT-proBNP levels of <55, 55-124, 125-299, and ≥300 pg/ml, respectively (P for trend <0.001). The decline of eGFR during the follow-up was significantly more rapid among participants with higher serum NT-proBNP levels (P for trend <0.001). Adding serum NT-proBNP to the model composed of known risk factors for CKD improved the predictive ability for developing CKD. CONCLUSIONS: Higher serum NT-proBNP levels were associated with greater risks of developing CKD and greater decline in eGFR. Serum NT-proBNP could be a useful biomarker for assessing the future risk of CKD in a general Japanese population.

Risk Prediction Model for Incident Atrial Fibrillation in a General Japanese Population　- The Hisayama Study.

BACKGROUND: The risk prediction of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) is useful to prevent AF and its complications. The aim of this study is to develop a new risk prediction model for incident AF using the prospective longitudinal data from a general Japanese population.Methods and Results:A total of 2,442 community-dwelling AF-free residents aged ≥40 years were followed up from 1988 to 2012 (46,422 person-years). The development of AF was confirmed by a standard 12-lead electrocardiogram at repeated health examinations and by medical records at clinics or hospitals. The risk prediction model for incident AF was developed using a Cox proportional hazards model. During the follow up, 230 AF events were confirmed. Age, sex, systolic blood pressure, waist circumference, estimated glomerular filtration rate, abnormal cardiac murmur, high R-wave amplitude, and arrhythmia other than AF were selected for inclusion in the model. This model showed good discrimination (Harrell's c statistics: 0.785) and calibration (Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino test: P=0.87) for AF risk at 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: The new risk prediction model showed good performance on the individual risk assessment of the future onset of AF in a general Japanese population. As this model included commonly used clinical parameters, it may be useful for determining the requirements for the careful evaluation of AF, such as frequent electrocardiogram examinations in clinical settings, and subsequent reductions in the risk of AF-related complications.

High Serum Folate Concentrations Are Associated with Decreased Risk of Mortality among Japanese Adults.

BACKGROUND: Folate and vitamin B-12 are essential nutrients for normal cell growth and replication, but the association of serum folate and vitamin B-12 concentrations with mortality risk remains uncertain. OBJECTIVE: This study was performed to investigate the associations of serum folate and vitamin B-12 concentrations with mortality risk and test whether the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T polymorphism modifies these associations. METHODS: A total of 3050 Japanese community residents aged ≥40 y were prospectively followed-up for mortality between 2002 and 2012. Cox proportional hazards models and restricted cubic splines were used to estimate HRs and 95% CIs of mortality. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 10.2 y, 336 participants died. Higher serum folate concentrations were associated with lower risks of all-cause mortality [multivariable-adjusted HR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.56, 0.96 for the second tertile (8.8-12.2 nmol/L; median 10.4 nmol/L) and HR: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.46, 0.80 for the third tertile (≥12.5 nmol/L; median 15.6 nmol/L) serum folate concentrations compared with the first tertile (≤8.6 nmol/L; median 7.0 nmol/L)]. This association remained significant in all sensitivity analyses. Spline analyses showed a steady decline in all-cause mortality risk with increasing serum folate concentrations up to 20-25 nmol/L. This association persisted regardless of the MTHFR C677T genotypes. For serum vitamin B-12, the multivariable-adjusted HR of 1.32 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.79) of all-cause mortality was marginally significantly greater in the first tertile compared with the second tertile. This association was attenuated and nonsignificant after the exclusion of participants with a history of cardiovascular disease or cancer, or participants aged ≥85 y at baseline, or deaths in the first 3 y of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Serum folate concentrations were inversely associated with the risk of all-cause mortality in Japanese adults. Serum vitamin B-12 concentrations were not consistently associated with all-cause mortality risk after accounting for reverse-causation bias.

Emotional Loneliness Is Associated With a Risk of Dementia in a General Japanese Older Population: The Hisayama Study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the association of loneliness and its component subscales with the risk of dementia in a general Japanese older population. METHOD: A total of 1,141 community-dwelling Japanese residents aged ≥65 years without dementia were prospectively followed up for a median 5.0 years. We evaluated any loneliness and its component subscales-namely, social and emotional loneliness-by using the 6-item de Jong Gierveld Loneliness Scale. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of each loneliness type on the risk of dementia controlling for demographic factors, lifestyle factors, physical factors, social isolation factors, and depression. RESULTS: During the follow-up, 114 participants developed dementia. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate of dementia was significantly greater in participants with any loneliness and emotional loneliness than those without. The multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% confidence intervals) of participants with any loneliness and emotional loneliness on incident dementia were 1.61 (1.08-2.40) and 1.65 (1.07-2.54), respectively, as compared to those without. However, there was no significant association between social loneliness and dementia risk. In subgroup analyses of social isolation factors, excess risks of dementia associated with emotional loneliness were observed in participants who had a partner, lived with someone, or rarely communicated with relatives or friends, but such association was not significant in participants who had no partner, lived alone, or frequently communicated with friends or relatives. DISCUSSION: The present study suggested that loneliness, especially emotional loneliness, was a significant risk factor for the development of dementia in the general older population in Japan.