ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: The purpose of population projection is to have available data in the absence of it and to forecast characteristics and structure of the population. The objective is to obtain the population of Catalonia by age and sex from 1991 to 2015. METHODS: The components method was used to obtain the population projection with an unique demographic scenario characterized by a low Catalonian population aging. The demographic hypotheses assume a stability in the mortality, a moderate increase in the fertility with a delay in the schedule and a slight net migration. RESULTS: In 2015 the projected population under the combination of hypotheses would be decreased in 13.37% for ages less than 15, in 2.27% for ages 15 through 64 and for people over 65 it would increase in 39.29%. The major impact of aging would be observed in female with an increasing in the average of age from 39.29 in 1991 to 44.14 in 2015. The projected population would be 933,540 for the youngest group, 4,004,226 for the adult group and 1,112,732 for the aged group. CONCLUSIONS: These results show a progressive aging of the Catalonian population due to a reduction of the youngest and an increasing of the oldest age groups.
Subject(s)
Demography , Adolescent , Adult , Age Distribution , Aged , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Forecasting , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Middle Aged , Sex Distribution , Spain , Statistics as TopicABSTRACT
In the context of a historical cohort study among workers in the pulp and paper industry, we examined the agreement between the underlying cause of death obtained from municipal mortality files and from the mortality register of Catalonia (n = 50 pairs). The percentage of simple agreement (P0) for major causes of death was 76%. The agreement and the Kappa index was higher for external causes (P0 = 98%; K = 0.87) and for cancer (P0 = 90%; K = 0.79). The agreement was moderate for mortality from circulatory diseases (K = 0.57). Agreement between 3 digit ICD codes was 48% but was higher for deaths from cancer (P0 = 67%). These results indicate that information on major causes of death and on specific causes of cancer retrieved from municipal mortality files may be used for the follow-up of historical cohort studies.
Subject(s)
Neoplasms/mortality , Occupational Diseases/mortality , Cardiovascular Diseases/mortality , Cause of Death , Cohort Studies , Female , Humans , Industry/statistics & numerical data , International Classification of Diseases , Local Government , Male , Paper , Registries , Retrospective Studies , Spain/epidemiology , State Government , WoodABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: To compare the evolution of the principal causes of death in Catalonia, Spain and to assess the impact of AIDS as a contributing factor to the increase of mortality in young people in Catalonia. METHODS: Data from the mortality register of Department of Health in Catalonia has been used. We have compared the principal causes of death in Catalonia for the global population and for the group of 20 to 39 year olds. We have calculated the potential years of life lost (PYLL) between the ages of 13 to 65. RESULTS: Since the first case of AIDS in 1981, AIDS has been the cause of death with the most important increase for the global population in Catalonia. AIDS is the sixth cause of death and the first cause of PYLL. For the young population in Catalonia (aged 20-39) AIDS became, in 1993, the first cause of death. From 1992 to 1993 the PYLL due to AIDS increased 5% in men and 51% in women. CONCLUSIONS: The present situation has led AIDS being the first cause of death among young population. The collaboration between mortality registers and AIDS registers is absolutely essential to assess more accurately the impact of AIDS on the mortality of population.
