Dynamic prediction of mortality in COVID-19 patients in the intensive care unit: A retrospective multi-center cohort study.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic continues to overwhelm intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide, and improved prediction of mortality among COVID-19 patients could assist decision making in the ICU setting. In this work, we report on the development and validation of a dynamic mortality model specifically for critically ill COVID-19 patients and discuss its potential utility in the ICU. Methods: We collected electronic medical record (EMR) data from 3222 ICU admissions with a COVID-19 infection from 25 different ICUs in the Netherlands. We extracted daily observations of each patient and fitted both a linear (logistic regression) and non-linear (random forest) model to predict mortality within 24 h from the moment of prediction. Isotonic regression was used to re-calibrate the predictions of the fitted models. We evaluated the models in a leave-one-ICU-out (LOIO) cross-validation procedure. Results: The logistic regression and random forest model yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87 [0.85; 0.88] and 0.86 [0.84; 0.88], respectively. The recalibrated model predictions showed a calibration intercept of -0.04 [-0.12; 0.04] and slope of 0.90 [0.85; 0.95] for logistic regression model and a calibration intercept of -0.19 [-0.27; -0.10] and slope of 0.89 [0.84; 0.94] for the random forest model. Discussion: We presented a model for dynamic mortality prediction, specifically for critically ill COVID-19 patients, which predicts near-term mortality rather than in-ICU mortality. The potential clinical utility of dynamic mortality models such as benchmarking, improving resource allocation and informing family members, as well as the development of models with more causal structure, should be topics for future research.

mCPP: an undesired addition to the ecstasy market.

A new ecstasy-like substance, meta-chlorophenylpiperazine (mCPP), has been detected in street drugs in the Netherlands. Theoretically, mCPP possesses the potential to become a non-neurotoxic alternative for methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA), the regular psychoactive substance of ecstasy. Since its introduction on the Dutch market of synthetic drugs, the percentage of mCPP-containing tablets has increased, including both tablets that contain only mCPP and tablets containing a combination of mCPP and MDMA. These tablets occur in many different colours, shapes and sizes and with various logos, making it impossible to distinguish mCPP-containing tablets from regular MDMA tablets. In addition, the reports of users concerning the effects of mCPP are predominantly negative. All these aspects together lead to the conclusion that mCPP is an undesired addition to the ecstasy market from the user's perspective.

Strong increase in total delta-THC in cannabis preparations sold in Dutch coffee shops.

The total concentration of THC has been monitored in cannabis preparations sold in Dutch coffee shops since 1999. This annual monitoring was issued by the Ministry of Health after reports of increased potency. The level of the main psychoactive compound, Delta9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), is measured in marijuana and hashish. A comparison is made between imported and Dutch preparations, and between seasons. Samples of cannabis preparations from randomly selected coffee shops were analyzed using gas chromatography (GC-FID) for THC, CBD and CBN. In 2004, the average THC level of Dutch home-grown marijuana (Nederwiet) (20.4% THC) was significantly higher than that of imported marijuana (7.0% THC). Hashish derived from Dutch marijuana (Nederhasj) contained 39.3% THC in 2004, compared with 18.2% THC in imported hashish. The average THC percentage of Dutch marijuana, Dutch hashish and imported hashish was significantly higher than in previous years. It nearly doubled over 5 years. During this period, the THC percentage in imported marijuana remained unchanged. A higher price had to be paid for cannabis with higher levels of THC. Whether the increase in THC levels causes increased health risks for users can only be concluded when more data are available on adjusted patterns of use, abuse liability, bioavailability and levels of THC in the brain.