Modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the United States.

BACKGROUND: New York State (NYS) reported a polio case (June 2022) and outbreak of imported type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) (last positive wastewater detection in February 2023), for which uncertainty remains about potential ongoing undetected transmission. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Extending a prior deterministic model, we apply an established stochastic modeling approach to characterize the confidence about no circulation (CNC) of cVDPV2 as a function of time since the last detected signal of transmission (i.e. poliovirus positive acute flaccid myelitis case or wastewater sample). RESULTS: With the surveillance coverage for the NYS population majority and its focus on outbreak counties, modeling suggests a high CNC (95%) within 3-10 months of the last positive surveillance signal, depending on surveillance sensitivity and population mixing patterns. Uncertainty about surveillance sensitivity implies longer durations required to achieve higher CNC. CONCLUSIONS: In populations that maintain high overall immunization coverage with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), rare polio cases may occur in un(der)-vaccinated individuals. Modeling demonstrates the unlikeliness of type 2 outbreaks reestablishing endemic transmission or resulting in large absolute numbers of paralytic cases. Achieving and maintaining high immunization coverage with IPV remains the most effective measure to prevent outbreaks and shorten the duration of imported poliovirus transmission.

Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and Responses in New York State.

BACKGROUND: In July 2022, New York State (NYS) reported a case of paralytic polio in an unvaccinated young adult, and subsequent wastewater surveillance confirmed sustained local transmission of type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2) in NYS with genetic linkage to the paralyzed patient. METHODS: We adapted an established poliovirus transmission and oral poliovirus vaccine evolution model to characterize dynamics of poliovirus transmission in NYS, including consideration of the immunization activities performed as part of the declared state of emergency. RESULTS: Despite sustained transmission of imported VDPV2 in NYS involving potentially thousands of individuals (depending on seasonality, population structure, and mixing assumptions) in 2022, the expected number of additional paralytic cases in years 2023 and beyond is small (less than 0.5). However, continued transmission and/or reintroduction of poliovirus into NYS and other populations remains a possible risk in communities that do not achieve and maintain high immunization coverage. CONCLUSIONS: In countries such as the United States that use only inactivated poliovirus vaccine, even with high average immunization coverage, imported polioviruses may circulate and pose a small but nonzero risk of causing paralysis in nonimmune individuals.

Home testing for SARS-CoV-2 and impact on surveillance in New York State.

PURPOSE: To determine the distribution of diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infections by testing modality (at-home rapid antigen [home tests] versus laboratory-based tests in clinical settings [clinical tests]), assess factors associated with clinical testing, and estimate the true total number of diagnosed infections in New York State (NYS). METHODS: We conducted an online survey among NYS residents and analyzed data from 1012 adults and 246 children with diagnosed infection July 13-December 7, 2022. Weighted descriptive and logistic regression model analyses were conducted. Weighted percentages and prevalence ratios by testing modality were generated. The percent of infections diagnosed by clinical tests via survey data were synthesized with daily lab-reported results to estimate the total number of diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infections in NYS July 1-December 31, 2022. RESULTS: Over 70% of SARS-CoV-2 infections in NYS during the study period were diagnosed exclusively with home tests. Diagnosis with a clinical test was associated with age, race/ethnicity, and region among adults, and sex, age, and education among children. We estimate 4.1 million NYS residents had diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection July 1-December 31, 2022, compared to 1.1 million infections reported over the same period. CONCLUSIONS: Most SARS-CoV-2 infections in NYS were diagnosed exclusively with home tests. Surveillance metrics using laboratory-based reporting data underestimate diagnosed infections.

Effectiveness of JYNNEOS Vaccine Against Diagnosed Mpox Infection - New York, 2022.

In 2022, an international Monkeypox virus outbreak, characterized by transmission primarily through sexual contact among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM), resulted in 375 monkeypox (mpox) cases in the state of New York outside of New York City (NYC).*,† The JYNNEOS vaccine (Modified Vaccinia Ankara vaccine, Bavarian Nordic), licensed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) against mpox as a 2-dose series, with doses administered 4 weeks apart,§ was deployed in a national vaccination campaign.¶ Before this outbreak, evidence to support vaccine effectiveness (VE) against mpox was based on human immunologic and animal challenge studies (1-3). New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) conducted a case-control study to estimate JYNNEOS VE against diagnosed mpox in New York residents outside of NYC, using data from systematic surveillance reporting. A case-patient was defined as a man aged ≥18 years who received a diagnosis of mpox during July 24-October 31, 2022. Contemporaneous control patients were men aged ≥18 years with diagnosed rectal gonorrhea or primary syphilis and a history of male-to-male sexual contact, without mpox. Case-patients and control patients were matched to records in state immunization systems. JYNNEOS VE was estimated as 1 - odds ratio (OR) x 100, and JYNNEOS vaccination status (vaccinated versus unvaccinated) at the time of diagnosis was compared, using conditional logistic regression models that adjusted for week of diagnosis, region, patient age, and patient race and ethnicity. Among 252 eligible mpox case-patients and 255 control patients, the adjusted VE of 1 dose (received ≥14 days earlier) or 2 doses combined was 75.7% (95% CI = 48.5%-88.5%); the VE for 1 dose was 68.1% (95% CI = 24.9%-86.5%) and for 2 doses was 88.5% (95% CI = 44.1%-97.6%). These findings support recommended 2-dose JYNNEOS vaccination consistent with CDC and NYSDOH guidance.

COVID-19 Vaccination and Hospitalization Among Persons Living With Diagnosed HIV in New York State.

BACKGROUND: Persons living with diagnosed HIV (PLWDH) have higher COVID-19 diagnoses rates and poorer COVID-19-related outcomes than persons living without diagnosed HIV. The intersection of COVID-19 vaccination status and likelihood of severe COVID-19 outcomes has not been fully investigated for PLWDH. SETTING: New York State (NYS). METHODS: We matched HIV surveillance, immunization, and hospitalization databases to compare COVID-19 vaccination and COVID-19-related hospitalizations among PLWDH during B.1.617.2 (Delta) and B.1.1.529 (Omicron) predominance. RESULTS: Through March 4, 2022, 69,137 of the 101,205 (68%) PLWDH were fully vaccinated or boosted for COVID-19. PLWDH who were virally suppressed or in care were more often to be fully vaccinated or boosted compared with PLWDH who were not virally suppressed (77% vs. 44%) or without evidence of care (74% vs. 33%). Overall hospitalization rates were lower among virally suppressed PLWDH. During Delta predominance, PLWDH with any vaccination history who were in care had lower hospitalization rates compared with those not in care; during Omicron predominance, this was the case only for boosted PLWDH. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 28% (28,255) of PLWDH in NYS remained unvaccinated for COVID-19, a rate roughly double of that observed in the overall adult NYS population. PLWDH of color were more often than non-Hispanic White persons to be unvaccinated, as were the virally unsuppressed and those without evidence of HIV-related care, threatening to expand existing disparities in COVID-19-related outcomes. Vaccination was protective against COVID-19-related hospitalizations for PLWDH; however, differences in hospitalization rates between fully vaccinated and unvaccinated PLWDH were smaller than those among all New Yorkers.

Estimated Number of People Who Inject Drugs in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Public health data signal increases in the number of people who inject drugs (PWID) in the United States during the past decade. An updated PWID population size estimate is critical for informing interventions and policies aiming to reduce injection-associated infections and overdose, as well as to provide a baseline for assessments of pandemic-related changes in injection drug use. METHODS: We used a modified multiplier approach to estimate the number of adults who injected drugs in the United States in 2018. We deduced the estimated number of nonfatal overdose events among PWID from 2 of our previously published estimates: the number of injection-involved overdose deaths and the meta-analyzed ratio of nonfatal to fatal overdose. The number of nonfatal overdose events was divided by prevalence of nonfatal overdose among current PWID for a population size estimate. RESULTS: There were an estimated 3 694 500 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1 872 700-7 273 300) PWID in the United States in 2018, representing 1.46% (95% CI, .74-2.87) of the adult population. The estimated prevalence of injection drug use was highest among males (2.1%; 95% CI, 1.1-4.2), non-Hispanic Whites (1.8%; 95% CI, .9-3.6), and adults aged 18-39 years (1.8%; 95% CI, .9-3.6). CONCLUSIONS: Using transparent, replicable methods and largely publicly available data, we provide the first update to the number of people who inject drugs in the United States in nearly 10 years. Findings suggest the population size of PWID has substantially grown in the past decade and that prevention services for PWID should be proportionally increased.

Modeling the Potential Impact of Missing Race and Ethnicity Data in Infectious Disease Surveillance Systems on Disparity Measures: Scenario Analysis of Different Imputation Strategies.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring progress toward population health equity goals requires developing robust disparity indicators. However, surveillance data gaps that result in undercounting racial and ethnic minority groups might influence the observed disparity measures. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the impact of missing race and ethnicity data in surveillance systems on disparity measures. METHODS: We explored variations in missing race and ethnicity information in reported annual chlamydia and gonorrhea diagnoses in the United States from 2007 to 2018 by state, year, reported sex, and infection. For diagnoses with incomplete demographic information in 2018, we estimated disparity measures (relative rate ratio and rate difference) with 5 imputation scenarios compared with the base case (no adjustments). The 5 scenarios used the racial and ethnic distribution of chlamydia or gonorrhea diagnoses in the same state, chlamydia or gonorrhea diagnoses in neighboring states, chlamydia or gonorrhea diagnoses within the geographic region, HIV diagnoses, and syphilis diagnoses. RESULTS: In 2018, a total of 31.93% (560,551/1,755,510) of chlamydia and 22.11% (128,790/582,475) of gonorrhea diagnoses had missing race and ethnicity information. Missingness differed by infection type but not by reported sex. Missing race and ethnicity information varied widely across states and times (range across state-years: from 0.0% to 96.2%). The rate ratio remained similar in the imputation scenarios, although the rate difference differed nationally and in some states. CONCLUSIONS: We found that missing race and ethnicity information affects measured disparities, which is important to consider when interpreting disparity metrics. Addressing missing information in surveillance systems requires system-level solutions, such as collecting more complete laboratory data, improving the linkage of data systems, and designing more efficient data collection procedures. As a short-term solution, local public health agencies can adapt these imputation scenarios to their aggregate data to adjust surveillance data for use in population indicators of health equity.

A stakeholder-driven framework for measuring potential change in the health risks of people who inject drugs (PWID) during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: People who inject drugs (PWID) have likely borne disproportionate health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. PWID experienced both interruptions and changes to drug supply and delivery modes of harm reduction, treatment, and other medical services, leading to potentially increased risks for HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV), and overdose. Given surveillance and research disruptions, proximal, indirect indicators of infectious diseases and overdose should be developed for timely measurement of health effects of the pandemic on PWID. METHODS: We used group concept mapping and a systems thinking approach to produce an expert stakeholder-generated, multi-level framework for monitoring changes in PWID health outcomes potentially attributable to COVID-19 in the U.S. This socio-ecological measurement framework elucidates proximal and distal contributors to infectious disease and overdose outcomes, many of which can be measured using existing data sources. RESULTS: The framework includes multi-level components including policy considerations, drug supply/distribution systems, the service delivery landscape, network factors, and individual characteristics such as mental and general health status and service utilization. These components are generally mediated by substance use and sexual behavioral factors to cause changes in incidence of HIV, HCV, sexually transmitted infections, wound/skin infections, and overdose. CONCLUSION: This measurement framework is intended to increase the quality and timeliness of research on the impacts of COVID-19 in the context of the current pandemic and future crises. Next steps include a ranking process to narrow the drivers of change in health risks to a concise set of indicators that adequately represent framework components, can be written as measurable indicators, and are quantifiable using existing data sources, as well as a publicly available web-based platform for summary data contributions.

Wastewater Testing and Detection of Poliovirus Type 2 Genetically Linked to Virus Isolated from a Paralytic Polio Case - New York, March 9-October 11, 2022.

In July 2022, a case of paralytic poliomyelitis resulting from infection with vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) type 2 (VDPV2)§ was confirmed in an unvaccinated adult resident of Rockland County, New York (1). As of August 10, 2022, poliovirus type 2 (PV2)¶ genetically linked to this VDPV2 had been detected in wastewater** in Rockland County and neighboring Orange County (1). This report describes the results of additional poliovirus testing of wastewater samples collected during March 9-October 11, 2022, and tested as of October 20, 2022, from 48 sewersheds (the community area served by a wastewater collection system) serving parts of Rockland County and 12 surrounding counties. Among 1,076 wastewater samples collected, 89 (8.3%) from 10 sewersheds tested positive for PV2. As part of a broad epidemiologic investigation, wastewater testing can provide information about where poliovirus might be circulating in a community in which a paralytic case has been identified; however, the most important public health actions for preventing paralytic poliomyelitis in the United States remain ongoing case detection through national acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) surveillance†† and improving vaccination coverage in undervaccinated communities. Although most persons in the United States are sufficiently immunized, unvaccinated or undervaccinated persons living or working in Kings, Orange, Queens, Rockland, or Sullivan counties, New York should complete the polio vaccination series as soon as possible.

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of hepatitis B vaccination strategies in high-impact settings for adults.

Adults at increased risk for hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection are recommended to receive vaccination. We conducted a cost utility analysis to evaluate approaches for implementing that recommendation in selected high-risk settings: community outreach events with a large proportion of immigrants, syringe service programs, substance use treatment centres, sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinics, tuberculosis (TB) clinics and jails. We utilized a decision tree framework with a Markov disease progression model to compare quality adjusted life-years and cost in 2021 United States dollars from four strategies: a 3-dose vaccination regimen with prevaccination screening and testing (PVST; baseline comparison); PVST at the initial encounter followed by a 2-dose series (Intervention 1); PVST with the first dose of a 2-dose vaccination series at the initial encounter (Intervention 2); and a 2-dose vaccination series without PVST (Intervention 3). In all settings, Intervention 1 resulted in worse health outcomes compared with the baseline strategy. Intervention 2 averted incident chronic HBV infections in all settings (range -9.4% in TB clinics, -14.8% in syringe service programs) and was a cost-saving approach in settings with higher risk of infection (i.e. jails, -$266 per person; syringe service programs, -$597; substance use treatment centres, -$130). Providing a 2-dose vaccination series without any screening (Intervention 3) averted incident HBV infections and was cost-saving in all settings but resulted in more HBV-related deaths in settings with higher HBV prevalence. These results demonstrate a 2-dose vaccine series is a cost-effective approach in these high-impact settings, even if prevaccination testing is not possible.

Public Health Response to a Case of Paralytic Poliomyelitis in an Unvaccinated Person and Detection of Poliovirus in Wastewater - New York, June-August 2022.

On July 18, 2022, the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) notified CDC of detection of poliovirus type 2 in stool specimens from an unvaccinated immunocompetent young adult from Rockland County, New York, who was experiencing acute flaccid weakness. The patient initially experienced fever, neck stiffness, gastrointestinal symptoms, and limb weakness. The patient was hospitalized with possible acute flaccid myelitis (AFM). Vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (VDPV2) was detected in stool specimens obtained on days 11 and 12 after initial symptom onset. To date, related Sabin-like type 2 polioviruses have been detected in wastewater* in the patient's county of residence and in neighboring Orange County up to 25 days before (from samples originally collected for SARS-CoV-2 wastewater monitoring) and 41 days after the patient's symptom onset. The last U.S. case of polio caused by wild poliovirus occurred in 1979, and the World Health Organization Region of the Americas was declared polio-free in 1994. This report describes the second identification of community transmission of poliovirus in the United States since 1979; the previous instance, in 2005, was a type 1 VDPV (1). The occurrence of this case, combined with the identification of poliovirus in wastewater in neighboring Orange County, underscores the importance of maintaining high vaccination coverage to prevent paralytic polio in persons of all ages.

A cross-sectional study of hepatitis C prevalence and correlates among persons who inject drugs in rural and non-rural communities.

Persons who inject drugs (PWID) have been experiencing a higher burden of new hepatitis C (HCV) due to the opioid epidemic. The greatest increases in injection have been in rural communities. However, less is known about the prevalence of HCV or its risk factors in rural compared to non-rural communities. This study compared HCV infection history, current infection, and associated behavioural and sociodemographic correlates among PWID recruited from rural and non-rural communities from Upstate New York (NY). This cross-sectional study recruited 309 PWID, using respondent-driven sampling. Blood samples were collected through finger stick for HCV antibody and RNA tests. A survey was also self-administered for HCV infection history, sociodemographics and behavioural correlates to compare by setting rurality. HCV seropositivity was significantly higher among PWID from rural than non-rural communities (71.0% vs. 46.8%), as was current infection (41.4% vs. 25.9%). High levels of past year syringe (44.4%) and equipment (62.2%) sharing were reported. Factors associated with infection history include syringe service program utilization, non-Hispanic white race, sharing needles and methamphetamine injection, which was higher in rural vs. non-rural communities (38.5% vs. 15.5%). HCV burden among PWID appears higher in rural than non-rural communities and may be increasing possibly due to greater levels of methamphetamine injection. On-going systematic surveillance of HCV prevalence and correlates is crucial to respond to the changing opioid epidemic landscape. Additionally, improving access to harm reduction services, especially with special focus on stimulants, may be important to reduce HCV prevalence among PWID in rural settings.

Factors associated with SARS-CoV-2-related hospital outcomes among and between persons living with and without diagnosed HIV infection in New York State.

BACKGROUND: Persons living with diagnosed HIV (PLWDH) are at increased risk for severe illness due to COVID-19. The degree to which this due to HIV infection, comorbidities, or other factors remains unclear. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective matched cohort study of individuals hospitalized with COVID-19 in New York State between March and June 2020, during the first wave of the pandemic, to compare outcomes among 853 PLWDH and 1,621 persons without diagnosed HIV (controls). We reviewed medical records to compare sociodemographic and clinical characteristics at admission, comorbidities, and clinical outcomes between PLWDH and controls. HIV-related characteristics were evaluated among PLWDH. RESULTS: PLWDH were significantly more likely to have cardiovascular (matched prevalence-ratio [mPR], 1.22 [95% CI, 1.07-1.40]), chronic liver (mPR, 6.71 [95% CI, 4.75-9.48]), chronic lung (mPR, 1.76 [95% CI, 1.40-2.21]), and renal diseases (mPR, 1.77 [95% CI, 1.50-2.09]). PLWDH were less likely to have elevated inflammatory markers upon hospitalization. Relative to controls, PLWDH were 15% less likely to require mechanical ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and 15% less likely to require admission to the intensive care unit. No significant differences were found in in-hospital mortality. PLWDH on tenofovir-containing regimens were significantly less likely to require mechanical ventilation or ECMO (risk-ratio [RR], 0.73 [95% CI, 0.55-0.96]) and to die (RR, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.57-0.96]) than PLWDH on non-tenofovir-containing regimens. CONCLUSIONS: While hospitalized PLWDH and controls had similar likelihood of in-hospital death, chronic disease profiles and degree of inflammation upon hospitalization differed. This may signal different mechanisms leading to severe COVID-19.

Estimated number of injection-involved drug overdose deaths, United States, 2000 - 2018.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, drug overdose mortality has increased. Death records categorize overdose deaths by type of drug involved, but do not include information about the route of drug administration. METHODS: We utilized data from drug treatment admissions (Treatment Episodes Dataset, TEDS-A) and National Vital Statistics Systems to estimate the percentage of reported drug overdose deaths that were injection-involved from 2000 to 2018 in the U.S. Data on reported route of administration at admission were used to calculate the percent injecting each drug type, by demographic group (race/ethnicity, sex, age group) and year. Using the resulting probabilities, we estimated the number of overdose deaths that were injection-involved. Estimates were compared across drug types, demographic characteristics, and year. FINDINGS: The number of overdose deaths among adults increased more than 3-fold from 2000 (n = 17,196) to 2018 (n = 67,021). During that timeframe, the number of estimated injection-involved overdose deaths increased more than 8-fold from 2000 (n = 3467, 95% CI: 3449-3485) to 2018 (n = 28,257, 95% CI: 28,192-28,322). From 2000-2007, the percent of overdose deaths that were injection-involved remained stable around 20%. From 2007-2018, the percent of overdose deaths that were injection-involved increased from 18.4% (95% CI: 18.3-18.6%) to 42.2% (95% CI: 42.1-42.3%). In 2018, most estimated injection-involved overdose deaths were due to injecting heroin/synthetic opioids (n = 24,860, 95% CI: 24,800-24,919), which accounted for 88.0% of all injection-involved deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Much of the recent increase in overdose mortality is likely attributable to rising injection-involved overdose deaths.

Assessing the Cost-Utility of Universal Hepatitis B Vaccination Among Adults.

BACKGROUND: Although effective against hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, hepatitis B (HepB) vaccination is only recommended for infants, children, and adults at higher risk. We conducted an economic evaluation of universal HepB vaccination among US adults. METHODS: Using a decision analytic model with Markov disease progression, we compared current vaccination recommendations (baseline) with either 3-dose or 2-dose universal HepB vaccination (intervention strategies). In simulated modeling of 1 million adults distributed by age and risk groups, we quantified health benefits (quality-adjusted life years, QALYs) and costs for each strategy. Multivariable probabilistic sensitivity analyses identified key inputs. All costs reported in 2019 US dollars. RESULTS: With incremental base-case vaccination coverage up to 50% among persons at lower risk and 0% increment among persons at higher risk, each of 2 intervention strategies averted nearly one-quarter of acute HBV infections (3-dose strategy, 24.8%; 2-dose strategy, 24.6%). Societal incremental cost per QALY gained of $152 722 (interquartile range, $119 113-$235 086) and $155 429 (interquartile range, $120 302-$242 226) were estimated for 3-dose and 2-dose strategies, respectively. Risk of acute HBV infection showed the strongest influence. CONCLUSIONS: Universal adult vaccination against HBV may be an appropriate strategy for reducing HBV incidence and improving resulting health outcomes.