The Global Diet Quality Score Is Inversely Associated with Nutrient Inadequacy, Low Midupper Arm Circumference, and Anemia in Rural Adults in Ten Sub-Saharan African Countries.

BACKGROUND: Key nutrient deficits remain widespread throughout sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) whereas noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) now cause one-third of deaths. Easy-to-use metrics are needed to track contributions of diet quality to this double burden. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated comparative performance of a novel food-based Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) against other diet metrics in capturing nutrient adequacy and undernutrition in rural SSA adults. METHODS: We scored the GDQS, Minimum Dietary Diversity-Women (MDD-W), and Alternative Healthy Eating Index-2010 (AHEI-2010) using FFQ data from rural men and nonpregnant, nonlactating women of reproductive age (15-49 y) in 10 SSA countries. We evaluated Spearman correlations between metrics and energy-adjusted nutrient intakes, and age-adjusted associations with BMI, midupper arm circumference (MUAC), and hemoglobin in regression models. RESULTS: Correlations between the GDQS and an energy-adjusted aggregate measure of dietary protein, fiber, calcium, iron, zinc, vitamin A, folate, and vitamin B-12 adequacy were 0.34 (95% CI: 0.30, 0.38) in men and 0.37 (95% CI: 0.32, 0.41) in women. The GDQS was associated (P < 0.05) with lower odds of low MUAC [GDQS quintile (Q) 5 compared with Q1 OR in men: 0.44, 95% CI: 0.22, 0.85; women: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.31, 1.03] and anemia (Q5/Q1 OR in men: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.32, 0.98; women: 0.60, 95% CI: 0.35, 1.01). The MDD-W correlated better with some nutrient intakes, though associated marginally with low MUAC in men (P = 0.07). The AHEI-2010 correlated better with fatty acid intakes, though associated marginally with low MUAC (P = 0.06) and anemia (P = 0.14) in women. Overweight/obesity prevalence was low, and neither the GDQS, MDD-W, nor AHEI-2010 were predictive. CONCLUSIONS: The GDQS performed comparably with the MDD-W in capturing nutrient adequacy-related outcomes in rural SSA. Given limited data on NCD outcomes and the cross-sectional study design, prospective studies are warranted to assess GDQS performance in capturing NCD outcomes in SSA.

Areas of global importance for conserving terrestrial biodiversity, carbon and water.

To meet the ambitious objectives of biodiversity and climate conventions, the international community requires clarity on how these objectives can be operationalized spatially and how multiple targets can be pursued concurrently. To support goal setting and the implementation of international strategies and action plans, spatial guidance is needed to identify which land areas have the potential to generate the greatest synergies between conserving biodiversity and nature's contributions to people. Here we present results from a joint optimization that minimizes the number of threatened species, maximizes carbon retention and water quality regulation, and ranks terrestrial conservation priorities globally. We found that selecting the top-ranked 30% and 50% of terrestrial land area would conserve respectively 60.7% and 85.3% of the estimated total carbon stock and 66% and 89.8% of all clean water, in addition to meeting conservation targets for 57.9% and 79% of all species considered. Our data and prioritization further suggest that adequately conserving all species considered (vertebrates and plants) would require giving conservation attention to ~70% of the terrestrial land surface. If priority was given to biodiversity only, managing 30% of optimally located land area for conservation may be sufficient to meet conservation targets for 81.3% of the terrestrial plant and vertebrate species considered. Our results provide a global assessment of where land could be optimally managed for conservation. We discuss how such a spatial prioritization framework can support the implementation of the biodiversity and climate conventions.

The SDGs and human well-being: a global analysis of synergies, trade-offs, and regional differences.

This paper explores the empirical links between achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and subjective well-being. Globally, we find that in terms of well-being, there are increasing marginal returns to sustainable development. Unpacking the SDGs by looking at how each SDG relates to well-being shows, in most cases, a strong positive correlation. However, SDG12 (responsible production and consumption) and SDG13 (climate action) are negatively correlated with well-being. This suggests that in the short run there may be certain trade-offs to sustainable development, and further heterogeneity is revealed through an analysis of how these relationships play out by region. Variance decomposition methods also suggest large differences in how each SDG contributes to explaining the variance in well-being between countries. These and other empirical insights highlight that more complex and contextualized policy efforts are needed in order to achieve sustainable development while optimising for well-being.

Projecting hospital utilization during the COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States.

In the wake of community coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission in the United States, there is a growing public health concern regarding the adequacy of resources to treat infected cases. Hospital beds, intensive care units (ICUs), and ventilators are vital for the treatment of patients with severe illness. To project the timing of the outbreak peak and the number of ICU beds required at peak, we simulated a COVID-19 outbreak parameterized with the US population demographics. In scenario analyses, we varied the delay from symptom onset to self-isolation, the proportion of symptomatic individuals practicing self-isolation, and the basic reproduction number R0 Without self-isolation, when R0 = 2.5, treatment of critically ill individuals at the outbreak peak would require 3.8 times more ICU beds than exist in the United States. Self-isolation by 20% of cases 24 h after symptom onset would delay and flatten the outbreak trajectory, reducing the number of ICU beds needed at the peak by 48.4% (interquartile range 46.4-50.3%), although still exceeding existing capacity. When R0 = 2, twice as many ICU beds would be required at the peak of outbreak in the absence of self-isolation. In this scenario, the proportional impact of self-isolation within 24 h on reducing the peak number of ICU beds is substantially higher at 73.5% (interquartile range 71.4-75.3%). Our estimates underscore the inadequacy of critical care capacity to handle the burgeoning outbreak. Policies that encourage self-isolation, such as paid sick leave, may delay the epidemic peak, giving a window of time that could facilitate emergency mobilization to expand hospital capacity.

The urgent case for expanded development assistance for health.

The low-income developing countries require increased development assistance for health (DAH) to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3, 'Healthy Lives for All'. DAH has a proven track record. DAH expanded during 2001-2008, with significant health gains in the LIDCs, but then stopped expanding in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria requires around US$31.8 billion during 2021-2023 to maintain a trajectory to end the three epidemics by 2030, yet donors have so far signaled that they are prepared to offer less than half that sum, around US$14 billion.

Agriculture, Aid, and Economic Growth in Africa.

How can foreign aid to agriculture support economic growth in Africa? This paper constructs a geographically indexed applied general equilibrium model that considers pathways through which aid might affect growth and structural transformation of labor markets in the context of soil nutrient variation, minimum subsistence consumption requirements, domestic transport costs, labor mobility, and constraints to self-financing of agricultural inputs.Using plausible parameters, the model is presented for Uganda as an illustrative case.We present three stylized scenarios to demonstrate the potential economy-wide impacts of both soil nutrient loss and replenishment, and how foreign aid can be targeted to support agricultural inputs that boost rural productivity and shift labor to boost real wages. One simulation shows how a temporary program of targeted official development assistance (ODA) for agriculture could generate, contrary to traditional Dutch disease concerns, an expansion in the primary tradable sector and positive permanent productivity and welfare effects, leading to a steady decline in the need for complementary ODA for budget support.

The Millennium Villages Project: a retrospective, observational, endline evaluation.

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Villages Project (MVP) was a 10 year, multisector, rural development project, initiated in 2005, operating across ten sites in ten sub-Saharan African countries to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). In this study, we aimed to estimate the project's impact, target attainment, and on-site spending. METHODS: In this endline evaluation of the MVP, we retrospectively selected comparison villages that best matched the project villages on possible confounding variables. Cross-sectional survey data on 40 outcomes of interest were collected from both the project and the comparison villages in 2015. Using these data, as well as on-site spending data collected during the project, we estimated project impacts as differences in outcomes between the project and comparison villages; target attainment as differences between project outcomes and prespecified targets; and on-site spending as expenditures reported by communities, donors, governments, and the project. Spending data were not collected in the comparison villages. FINDINGS: Averaged across the ten project sites, we found that impact estimates for 30 of 40 outcomes were significant (95% uncertainty intervals [UIs] for these outcomes excluded zero) and favoured the project villages. In particular, substantial effects were seen in agriculture and health, in which some outcomes were roughly one SD better in the project villages than in the comparison villages. The project was estimated to have no significant impact on the consumption-based measures of poverty, but a significant favourable impact on an index of asset ownership. Impacts on nutrition and education outcomes were often inconclusive (95% UIs included zero). Averaging across outcomes within categories, the project had significant favourable impacts on agriculture, nutrition, education, child health, maternal health, HIV and malaria, and water and sanitation. A third of the targets were met in the project sites. Total on-site spending decreased from US$132 per person in the first half of the project (of which $66 was from the MVP) to $109 per person in the second half of the project (of which $25 was from the MVP). INTERPRETATION: The MVP had favourable impacts on outcomes in all MDG areas, consistent with an integrated rural development approach. The greatest effects were in agriculture and health, suggesting support for the project's emphasis on agriculture and health systems strengthening. The project conclusively met one third of its targets. FUNDING: The Open Society Foundations, the Islamic Development Bank, and the governments of Japan, South Korea, Mali, Senegal, and Uganda.

Malaria ecology, child mortality & fertility.

The broad determinants of fertility are thought to be reasonably well identified by demographers, though the detailed quantitative drivers of fertility levels and changes are less well understood. This paper uses a novel ecological index of malaria transmission to study the effect of child mortality on fertility. We find that temporal variation in the ecology of the disease is well-correlated to mortality, and pernicious malaria conditions lead to higher fertility rates. We then argue that most of this effect occurs through child mortality, and estimate the effect of child mortality changes on fertility. Our findings add to the literature on disease and fertility, and contribute to the suggestive evidence that child mortality reductions have a causal effect on fertility changes.