Prediction Models for Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia in Preterm Infants: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To review systematically and assess the accuracy of prediction models for bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) at 36 weeks of postmenstrual age. STUDY DESIGN: Searches were conducted in MEDLINE and EMBASE. Studies published between 1990 and 2022 were included if they developed or validated a prediction model for BPD or the combined outcome death/BPD at 36 weeks in the first 14 days of life in infants born preterm. Data were extracted independently by 2 authors following the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (ie, CHARMS) and PRISMA guidelines. Risk of bias was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (ie, PROBAST). RESULTS: Sixty-five studies were reviewed, including 158 development and 108 externally validated models. Median c-statistic of 0.84 (range 0.43-1.00) was reported at model development, and 0.77 (range 0.41-0.97) at external validation. All models were rated at high risk of bias, due to limitations in the analysis part. Meta-analysis of the validated models revealed increased c-statistics after the first week of life for both the BPD and death/BPD outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Although BPD prediction models perform satisfactorily, they were all at high risk of bias. Methodologic improvement and complete reporting are needed before they can be considered for use in clinical practice. Future research should aim to validate and update existing models.

Comparison of New Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia Definitions on Long-Term Outcomes in Preterm Infants.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the discriminative performances of the 2018 National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the 2019 Jensen definitions of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) with the 2001 NIH definition on adverse neurodevelopmental and respiratory outcomes at 2 years and 5 years corrected age. STUDY DESIGN: In this single-center retrospective cohort study, outcomes of infants born at <30 weeks of gestational age were collected. The 3 definitions of BPD were compared by adding the different definitions to the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development's outcome prediction model for neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI) or death. Discriminative performance was compared for both outcomes at 2 years and 5 years corrected age by calculating the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and z-statistics. RESULTS: The presence of BPD and its severity were determined in 584 infants. There were considerable shifts in BPD grading among the different definitions. At both time points, all BPD definition models had comparable discriminating power for NDI and respiratory morbidity, with one exception. Compared with the 2001 NIH definition, the 2018 NIH definition had less predictive power for the neurologic outcome at 2 years corrected age. CONCLUSIONS: Our comparison of the 3 BPD definitions shows similar discriminative performance on long term neurodevelopmental and respiratory outcomes at 2 years and 5 years corrected age.

Population differences and the effect of vaginal progesterone on preterm birth in women with threatened preterm labor (.).

OBJECTIVE: Threatened preterm labor (tPTL) is a complication of pregnancy. Identification of women and clinical definition differs between countries. This study investigated differences in tPTL and effectiveness of vaginal progesterone to prevent preterm birth (PTB) between two countries. METHODS: Secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) from Argentina and Switzerland comparing vaginal progesterone to placebo in women with tPTL (n = 379). Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to compare placebo groups of both countries and to compare progesterone to placebo within each country. We adjusted for baseline differences. Iatrogenic onset of labor or pregnancy beyond gestational age of interest was censored. RESULTS: Swiss and Argentinian women were different on baseline. Risks for delivery <14 days and PTB < 34 and < 37 weeks were increased in Argentina compared to Switzerland, HR 3.3 (95% CI 0.62-18), 54 (95% CI 5.1-569) and 3.1 (95% CI 1.1-8.4). In Switzerland, progesterone increased the risk for delivery <14 days [HR 4.4 (95% CI 1.3-15.7)] and PTB <37 weeks [HR 2.5 (95% CI 1.4-4.8)], in Argentina there was no such effect. CONCLUSION: In women with tPTL, the effect of progesterone may vary due to population differences. Differences in populations should be considered in multicenter RCTs.