Treatment patterns of patients with HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer receiving CDK4/6 inhibitor-based regimens: a cohort study in the French nationwide healthcare database.

PURPOSE: To assess real-world treatment patterns in patients diagnosed with hormone receptor positive (HR+), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 negative (HER2-) metastatic breast cancer (mBC) who received cyclin-dependent kinase 4/6 (CDK4/6) inhibitors in combination with an aromatase inhibitor (AI) or fulvestrant at first line. METHODS: Patient characteristics, treatment history, and outcomes data were extracted from the French 'Système National des Données de Santé' (SNDS) database for patients diagnosed with HR+/HER2- mBC between January 2014 and June 2019 and who received combination therapy with a CDK4/6 inhibitor and endocrine therapy. Kaplan-Meier methodology was used to assess time to next treatment (TTNT) and time to treatment discontinuation (TTTD). RESULTS: The cohort comprised 6061 patients including 4032 patients who received CDK4/6 inhibitors + AIs and 2029 patients who received CDK4/6 inhibitors + fulvestrant. Median follow-up was 13.5 months (IQR 9.5-18.1). The median TTTD of first line treatment with CDK4/6 inhibitors + AIs and CDK4/6 inhibitors + fulvestrant was 17.3 months (95% CI 16.8-17.9) and 9.7 months (95% CI 9.0-10.2), respectively. Chemotherapy was the most common second line therapy. Median TTTD of subsequent treatment lines was progressively shorter following first line treatment with CDK4/6 inhibitors + AIs (2nd line: 4.6 months (95% CI 4.4-4.9) and with CDK4/6 inhibitors + fulvestrant (2nd line: 4.7 months (95% CI 4.3-5.1). TTNT was longer than TTTD across lines of therapy. CONCLUSION: This real-world analysis confirms the effectiveness of CDK4/6 inhibitor-based regimens in French patients and highlights the frequent use of chemotherapy as second line therapy.

The impact of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor agents on visual impairment/blindness prevention in patients with diabetic macular edema and on associated patient and caregiver burden in Japan.

AIMS: To estimate the impact of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) agents on visual impairment and blindness avoided in patients with diabetic macular edema (DME) and on associated patient and caregiver productivity loss in Japan. METHODS: This study compared the impact of current care (estimated at 53.8% utilization of anti-VEGF agents using current data) with that of hypothetical care (characterized by a higher utilization of anti-VEGF agents [80.0%], as estimated by an expert panel) of DME patients. A population-based Markov model (two-eye approach) simulated visual acuity (Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study [ETDRS] letters) transitions over 5 years with DME treatments (intravitreal aflibercept, ranibizumab, and triamcinolone acetonide, and grid/focal laser) in patients with DME. Patient and caregiver productivity loss was determined using the human capital method. RESULTS: In total, 570,000 DME patients were included in the model over 5 years. Increased utilization of anti-VEGF agents resulted in 6,659 fewer cases of severe visual impairment (SVI; 26-35 ETDRS letters) or blindness (0-25 ETDRS letters) compared with the current care approach (26,023 vs 32,682 cases; 20.38% reduction) over this period. Increased utilization of anti-VEGF agents also contributed to productivity loss savings of ¥12.58 billion (US $115.64 million) (i.e., 17.01%) at the end of year 5. The total overall saving over 5 years was ¥45.83 billion (US $421.27 million) (13.45%). LIMITATIONS: Few Japanese data were available, and assumptions were made for some inputs. Vision changes dependent on the function of both eyes were not studied. Only intravitreal (not sub-Tenon's) injections of triamcinolone were considered in this model. Direct costs were not considered. CONCLUSIONS: Increased utilization of anti-VEGF agents can reduce SVI and legal blindness in patients with DME in Japan. This would also be associated with substantial savings in patient and caregiver productivity loss.

Cost-effectiveness comparison of cabozantinib with everolimus, axitinib, and nivolumab in the treatment of advanced renal cell carcinoma following the failure of prior therapy in England.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of cabozantinib with the standard of care in England in adult patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (aRCC), following prior vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR)-targeted therapy. METHODS: We developed a partitioned-survival model with three health states to assess the cost-effectiveness of cabozantinib and its comparators. The model time horizon was 30 years. Efficacy and safety data were derived from pivotal clinical trials (METEOR: NCT01865747, CheckMate025: NCT01668784, and AXIS: NCT00678392). METEOR data were used for a direct comparison of cabozantinib and everolimus. Cabozantinib and nivolumab were compared indirectly, whereas equal efficacy for axitinib and everolimus was assumed based on a previously published expert opinion. For all efficacy endpoints, the best-fitting log-logistic or fractional polynomial curves were used to estimate outcomes. Utilities were converted from the 5-level EQ-5D version instrument applied during the METEOR study for specific health states. Reductions in utility scores due to adverse events were applied. English costs (eg, drug prices) and resource use (eg, visit to consultant) data were used. RESULTS: The total treatment cost was estimated to be 84,136 Great British Pounds (GBP) per patient treated with cabozantinib. The health gains were 2.26 life-years (LYs) and 1.78 quality-adjusted LYs (QALYs). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) versus axitinib and everolimus were 98,967 GBP/QALY and 137,450 GBP/QALY, respectively. Cabozantinib was less costly and more effective than nivolumab; the incremental cost was -6,742 GBP and the QALY difference was 0.18. CONCLUSION: Treatment with cabozantinib was more effective than treatment with axitinib or everolimus but was associated with higher total costs. When compared with nivolumab, cabozantinib represents an efficient option with nominally better efficacy and lower costs.

Budget impact model of Mydrane®, a new intracameral injectable used for intra-operative mydriasis, from a UK hospital perspective.

BACKGROUND: During cataract surgery, maintaining an adequate degree of mydriasis throughout the entire operation is critical to allow for visualisation of the capsulorhexis and the crystalline lens. Good anaesthesia is also essential for safe intraocular surgery. Mydrane® is a new injectable intracameral solution containing two mydriatics (tropicamide 0.02% and phenylephrine 0.31%) and one anaesthetic (lidocaine 1%) that was developed as an alternative to the conventional topical pre-operative mydriatics used in cataract surgery. This study aimed to estimate the budget impact across a one year time frame using Mydrane® instead of topical dilating eye drops, for a UK hospital performing 3,000 cataract operations a year. METHODS: A budget impact model (BIM) was developed to compare the economic outcomes associated with the use of Mydrane® versus topical drops (tropicamide 0.5% and phenylephrine 10%) in patients undergoing cataract surgery in a UK hospital. The outcomes of interest included costs and resource use (e.g. clinician time, mydriasis failures, operating room time, number of patients per vial of therapy etc.) associated with management of mydriasis in patients undergoing cataract surgery. All model inputs considered the UK hospital perspective without social or geographical variables. Deterministic sensitivity analyses were also performed to assess the model uncertainty. RESULTS: Introduction of Mydrane® is associated with a cost saving of £6,251 over 3,000 cataract surgeries in one year. The acquisition costs of the Mydrane® (£18,000 by year vs. £3,330 for eye drops) were balanced by substantial reductions in mainly nurses' costs and time, plus a smaller contribution from savings in surgeons' costs (£20,511) and lower costs associated with auxiliary dilation (£410 due to avoidance of additional dilation methods). Results of the sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the model to the variation of inputs. Except for the duration of one session of eye drop instillation and the cost of Mydrane®, Mydrane® achieved an incremental cost gain compared to tropicamide/phenylephrine eye drops. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a higher acquisition cost of Mydrane®, the budget impact of Mydrane® on hospital budgets is neutral. Mydrane® offers a promising alternative to traditional regimes using eye drops, allowing for a better patient flow and optimisation of the surgery schedule with neutral budget impact.

Cabozantinib Versus Standard-of-Care Comparators in the Treatment of Advanced/Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma in Treatment-naïve Patients: a Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cabozantinib has recently been evaluated as a first-line treatment in advanced renal cell carcinoma (aRCC). OBJECTIVE: To indirectly assess efficacy of cabozantinib versus standard-of-care (SoC) comparators in the first-line treatment of aRCC. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature review (SLR) to identify randomized controlled studies in the first-line setting for aRCC. The outcomes analyzed were overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). A network meta-analysis (NMA) was conducted comparing OS and PFS hazard ratios (HRs). RESULTS: Thirteen studies were identified in the SLR to be eligible for inclusion in the NMA. The overall study populations were heterogeneous in terms of risk groups; some studies included favorable risk patients. In intermediate-risk patients, HRs (95% confidence interval) for PFS were 0.52 (0.33, 0.82), 0.46 (0.26, 0.80), 0.20 (0.12, 0.36), and 0.37 (0.20, 0.68) when cabozantinib was compared with sunitinib, sorafenib, interferon (IFN), or bevacizumab plus IFN, respectively. In poor-risk patients, the NMA also demonstrated significant superiority in terms of PFS for cabozantinib; HRs were 0.31 (0.11, 0.90), 0.22 (0.06, 0.87), 0.16 (0.04, 0.64), and 0.20 (0.05, 0.88), when cabozantinib was compared with sunitinib, temsirolimus, IFN, or bevacizumab plus IFN, respectively. When the overall study populations were compared, the results were similar to the subgroup analyses. OS HRs in all analyses favored cabozantinib, but were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that cabozantinib significantly increases PFS in intermediate-, and poor-risk subgroups when compared to standard-of-care comparators. Although overall populations included favorable risk patients in some studies, the results seen were consistent with the subgroup analyses.

Development of an instrument evaluating the impact of surgeon-patient relationship in patients on sick leave.

Background: To date, no specific instruments exist to measure the quality of the patient-surgeon relationship despite its potential to influence clinical and economic outcomes in patients undergoing surgery for musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs). Objective: The objective was to develop and validate an instrument to assess the quality of the patient-surgeon relationship, taking into account the return to work after functional restoration surgery. Methods: The instrument development was based on literature review, cognitive interviews and expert examinations. The instrument's psychometric properties were explored in a sample of 50 French patients on sick leave with musculoskeletal disorders or hand injuries. Face validity, internal consistency and test-retest reliability were evaluated. The dimensionality of the instrument was studied using an exploratory principal component analysis. Results: The 11-item instrument showed good psychometric properties. The cognitive interviews allowed enhancing the validity of the instrument content by capturing patients' point of view. The exploratory principal component analysis demonstrated the uni-dimensionality of the instrument with the first factor accounting for 83% of the total explained variance. Conclusion:This study has developed the first instrument capable of the specific assessment of the impact of the surgeon-patient relationship on recovery, in patients with hand traumas and MSDs.

Determinants of orphan drugs prices in France: a regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: The introduction of the orphan drug legislation led to the increase in the number of available orphan drugs, but the access to them is often limited due to the high price. Social preferences regarding funding orphan drugs as well as the criteria taken into consideration while setting the price remain unclear. The study aimed at identifying the determinant of orphan drug prices in France using a regression analysis. METHODS: All drugs with a valid orphan designation at the moment of launch for which the price was available in France were included in the analysis. The selection of covariates was based on a literature review and included drug characteristics (Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) class, treatment line, age of target population), diseases characteristics (severity, prevalence, availability of alternative therapeutic options), health technology assessment (HTA) details (actual benefit (AB) and improvement in actual benefit (IAB) scores, delay between the HTA and commercialisation), and study characteristics (type of study, comparator, type of endpoint). The main data sources were European public assessment reports, HTA reports, summaries of opinion on orphan designation of the European Medicines Agency, and the French insurance database of drugs and tariffs. A generalized regression model was developed to test the association between the annual treatment cost and selected covariates. RESULTS: A total of 68 drugs were included. The mean annual treatment cost was €96,518. In the univariate analysis, the ATC class (p = 0.01), availability of alternative treatment options (p = 0.02) and the prevalence (p = 0.02) showed a significant correlation with the annual cost. The multivariate analysis demonstrated significant association between the annual cost and availability of alternative treatment options, ATC class, IAB score, type of comparator in the pivotal clinical trial, as well as commercialisation date and delay between the HTA and commercialisation. CONCLUSION: The orphan drug pricing is a multivariate phenomenon. The complex association between drug prices and the studied attributes and shows that payers integrate multiple variables in decision making when setting orphan drug prices. The interpretation of the study results is limited by the small sample size and the complex data structure.

Comparison of Inhaled Antibiotics for the Treatment of Chronic Pseudomonas aeruginosa Lung Infection in Patients With Cystic Fibrosis: Systematic Literature Review and Network Meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: In Europe, 4 inhaled antibiotics (tobramycin, colistimethate sodium, aztreonam, and levofloxacin) are currently approved for the treatment of chronic Pseudomonas aeruginosa lung infection in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF). Levofloxacin inhalation solution (LIS) is the most recently approved inhaled antibiotic for adult patients with CF. A systematic literature review and Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA) was conducted to compare the relative short-term (4 weeks) and long-term (24 weeks) outcomes of these inhaled antibiotics versus LIS. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted on February 16, 2016, using EMBASE and Medline via OvidSP. All randomized controlled trials comparing any of the aforementioned inhaled antibiotics with 4 or 24 weeks of follow-up were evaluated. NMA was performed for the following outcomes: relative and absolute percent changes from baseline in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1%) predicted, change in P aeruginosa sputum density, respiratory symptoms score from the CF questionnaire-revised, hospitalization, additional antibiotics use, and study withdrawal rates. RESULTS: Of the 685 articles identified, 7 unique studies were included in the 4 weeks' NMA and 9 unique studies were included in the 24 weeks' NMA. Aztreonam was predicted to result in the greatest numerically increase in FEV1% predicted at 4 weeks, whereas LIS were predicted to be numerically greater than colistimethate sodium, tobramycin inhaled solution (TIS), and tobramycin inhaled powder (TIP). However, all of the 95% credibility intervals (CrIs) of these comparisons included zero. At 24 weeks, none of the treatments was significantly more effective than LIS. The estimates for the mean change from baseline to 24 weeks in relative FEV1% versus LIS was -0.55 (95% CrI, -3.91 to 2.80) for TIS, -2.36 (95% CrI, -7.32 to 2.63) for aztreonam, -2.95 (95% CrI, -10.44 to 4.51) for TIP, and -9.66 (95% CrI, -15.01 to -4.33) for placebo. Compared with LIS, the odds ratio for hospitalization at 24 weeks was 1.92 (95% CrI, 1.01-3.30) for TIS, 2.25 (95% CrI, 1.01-4.34) for TIP, and 3.16 (95% CrI, 1.53-5.78) for placebo, all statistically worse than LIS. P aeruginosa sputum density scores, additional use of antipseudomonal antibiotics, and study withdrawal rates were comparable among all inhaled antibiotics at all times. IMPLICATIONS: Based on this NMA, the analyses for many of the outcomes did not provide significant evidence to indicate that the other approved inhaled antibiotics were more effective than LIS for the treatment of chronic P aeruginosa lung infection in patients with CF. Study withdrawal rates seemed to be comparable among these inhaled antibiotics.

Economic Impact of Gene Expression Profiling in Patients with Early-Stage Breast Cancer in France.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The heterogeneous nature of breast cancer can make decisions on adjuvant chemotherapy following surgical resection challenging. Oncotype DX is a validated gene expression profiling test that predicts the likelihood of adjuvant chemotherapy benefit in early-stage breast cancer. The aim of this study is to determine the costs of chemotherapy in private hospitals in France, and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Oncotype DX from national insurance and societal perspectives. METHODS: A multicenter study was conducted in seven French private hospitals, capturing retrospective data from 106 patient files. Cost estimates were used in conjunction with a published Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness of using Oncotype DX to inform chemotherapy decision making versus standard care. Sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: The cost of adjuvant chemotherapy in private hospitals was estimated at EUR 8,218 per patient from a national insurance perspective and EUR 10,305 from a societal perspective. Cost-effectiveness analysis indicated that introducing Oncotype DX improved life expectancy (+0.18 years) and quality-adjusted life expectancy (+0.17 QALYs) versus standard care. Oncotype DX was found cost-effective from a national insurance perspective (EUR 2,134 per QALY gained) and cost saving from a societal perspective versus standard care. Inclusion of lost productivity costs in the modeling analysis meant that costs for eligible patients undergoing Oncotype DX testing were on average EUR 602 lower than costs for those receiving standard care. CONCLUSIONS: As Oncotype DX was found both cost and life-saving from a societal perspective, the test was considered to be dominant to standard care. However, the delay in coverage has the potential to erode the quality of the French healthcare system, thus depriving patients of technologies that could improve clinical outcomes and allow healthcare professionals to better allocate hospital resources to improve the standard of care for all patients.

Does drinking water influence hospital-admitted sialolithiasis on an epidemiological level in Denmark?

OBJECTIVES: Sialolithiasis, or salivary stones, is not a rare disease of the major salivary glands. However, the aetiology and incidence remain largely unknown. Since sialoliths are comprised mainly of calcium phosphate salts, we hypothesise that drinking water calcium levels and other elements in drinking water could play a role in sialolithiasis. Owing to substantial intermunicipality differences in drinking water composition, Denmark constitutes a unique environment for testing such relations. DESIGN: An epidemiological study based on patient data extracted from the National Patient Registry and drinking water data from the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland retrieved as weighted data on all major drinking water constituents for each of the 3364 waterworks in Denmark. All patient cases with International Statistical Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes for sialolithiasis registered between the years 2000 and 2010 were included in the study (n=3014) and related to the drinking water composition on a municipality level (n=98). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Multiple regression analysis using iterative search and testing among all demographic and drinking water variables with sialolithiasis incidence as the outcome in search of possible relations among the variables tested. RESULTS: The nationwide incidence of hospital-admitted sialolithiasis was 5.5 cases per 100,000 citizens per year in Denmark. Strong relations were found between the incidence of sialolithiasis and the drinking water concentration of calcium, magnesium and hydrogen carbonate, however, in separate models (p<0.001). Analyses also confirmed correlations between drinking water calcium and magnesium and their concentration in saliva whereas this was not the case for hydrogen carbonate. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in drinking water calcium and magnesium may play a role in the incidence of sialolithiasis. These findings are of interest because many countries have started large-scale desalination programmes of drinking water.

Core discrete event simulation model for the evaluation of health care technologies in major depressive disorder.

OBJECTIVE: A review of existing economic models in major depressive disorder (MDD) highlighted the need for models with longer time horizons that also account for heterogeneity in treatment pathways between patients. A core discrete event simulation model was developed to estimate health and cost outcomes associated with alternative treatment strategies. METHODS: This model simulated short- and long-term clinical events (partial response, remission, relapse, recovery, and recurrence), adverse events, and treatment changes (titration, switch, addition, and discontinuation) over up to 5 years. Several treatment pathways were defined on the basis of fictitious antidepressants with three levels of efficacy, tolerability, and price (low, medium, and high) from first line to third line. The model was populated with input data from the literature for the UK setting. Model outputs include time in different health states, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and costs from National Health Service and societal perspectives. The codes are open source. RESULTS: Predicted costs and QALYs from this model are within the range of results from previous economic evaluations. The largest cost components from the payer perspective were physician visits and hospitalizations. Key parameters driving the predicted costs and QALYs were utility values, effectiveness, and frequency of physician visits. Differences in QALYs and costs between two strategies with different effectiveness increased approximately twofold when the time horizon increased from 1 to 5 years. CONCLUSION: The discrete event simulation model can provide a more comprehensive evaluation of different therapeutic options in MDD, compared with existing Markov models, and can be used to compare a wide range of health care technologies in various groups of patients with MDD.

Significance of TP53 mutations as predictive markers of adjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy in completely resected non-small-cell lung cancer.

Adjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy only marginally improves survival in patients with completely resected non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We have evaluated the predictive value of mutations in TP53, encoding the tumour suppressor p53, in the International Adjuvant Lung Cancer Trial (IALT), a randomized trial of adjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy against observation. TP53 (exons 4-8) was sequenced in 524 archived specimens of IALT patients with a median follow-up of 7.5 years. Predictive analyses were based on Cox models adjusted for clinical and pathological variables. P-values ≤ 0.01 were considered as significant. Mutations were detected in 221 patients (42%) and had no predictive value for the effect of chemotherapy (interaction between TP53 and treatment: p = 0.17 for Overall Survival (OS); p = 0.06 for Disease-Free Interval, (DFS)). However, among patients with mutations, outcome appeared worse in treatment compared to observation arms (HR for OS = 1.36 (95% CI [0.97-1.31), p = 0.08; DFS = 1.40 (95% CI [1.01-1.95]), p = 0.04). When grouping mutations into classes according to predicted effects on protein structure, the tendency towards worse outcomes was restricted to "structure" mutations affecting residues of the hydrophobic core that are not located at the p53 protein-DNA interface (HR for death in this class vs wild-type T53 = 1.66; 95% CI [1.10-2.52], p = 0.02). Overall, TP53 mutations are not significant predictors of outcome in this trial of cisplatin-based chemotherapy, although a specific class of structural mutations may be associated with a tendency towards worse outcomes upon treatment.

Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project 'European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast' - http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). METHODS: A model was built to assess policy scenarios' impact on the pharmaceutical budgets of seven member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The following scenarios were tested: expanding the UK policies to EU, changing time to market access, modifying generic price and penetration, shifting the distribution chain of biosimilars (retail/hospital). RESULTS: Applying the UK policy resulted in dramatic savings for Germany (10 times the base case forecast) and substantial additional savings for France and Portugal (2 and 4 times the base case forecast, respectively). Delaying time to market was found be to a very powerful tool to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Applying the EU transparency directive (6-month process for pricing and reimbursement) increased pharmaceutical expenditure for all countries (from 1.1 to 4 times the base case forecast), except in Germany (additional savings). Decreasing the price of generics and boosting the penetration rate, as well as shifting distribution of biosimilars through hospital chain were also key methods to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Change in the level of reimbursement rate to 100% in all countries led to an important increase in the pharmaceutical budget. CONCLUSIONS: Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure is a critical exercise to inform policy decision makers. The most important leverages identified by the model on pharmaceutical budget were driven by generic and biosimilar prices, penetration rate, and distribution. Reducing, even slightly, the prices of generics had a major impact on savings. However, very aggressive pricing of generic and biosimilar products might make this market unattractive and can be counterproductive. Worth noting, delaying time to access innovative products was also identified as an effective leverage to increase savings but might not be a desirable policy for breakthrough products. Increasing patient financial contributions, either directly or indirectly via their private insurances, is a more likely scenario rather than expanding the national pharmaceutical expenditure coverage.

EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States' pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). METHOD: In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012-2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. RESULTS: According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (-€9,367 million), France (-€5,589 million), and, far behind them, Germany (-€831 million), Greece (-€808 million), Portugal (-€243 million), and Hungary (-€84 million). The main source of savings came from the cardiovascular, central nervous system, and respiratory areas and from biosimilar entries. Oncology, immunology, and inflammation, in contrast, lead to additional expenditure. The model was particularly sensitive to the time to market of branded products, generic prices, generic penetration, and the distribution of biosimilars. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this forecast suggested a decrease in pharmaceutical expenditure in the studied period. The model was sensitive to pharmaceutical policy decisions.

Novel methodology for pharmaceutical expenditure forecast.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The value appreciation of new drugs across countries today features a disruption that is making the historical data that are used for forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure poorly reliable. Forecasting methods rarely addressed uncertainty. The objective of this project was to propose a methodology to perform pharmaceutical expenditure forecasting that integrates expected policy changes and uncertainty (developed for the European Commission as the 'EU Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast'; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). METHODS: 1) Identification of all pharmaceuticals going off-patent and new branded medicinal products over a 5-year forecasting period in seven European Union (EU) Member States. 2) Development of a model to estimate direct and indirect impacts (based on health policies and clinical experts) on savings of generics and biosimilars. Inputs were originator sales value, patent expiry date, time to launch after marketing authorization, price discount, penetration rate, time to peak sales, and impact on brand price. 3) Development of a model for new drugs, which estimated sales progression in a competitive environment. Clinical expected benefits as well as commercial potential were assessed for each product by clinical experts. Inputs were development phase, marketing authorization dates, orphan condition, market size, and competitors. 4) Separate analysis of the budget impact of products going off-patent and new drugs according to several perspectives, distribution chains, and outcomes. 5) Addressing uncertainty surrounding estimations via deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: This methodology has proven to be effective by 1) identifying the main parameters impacting the variations in pharmaceutical expenditure forecasting across countries: generics discounts and penetration, brand price after patent loss, reimbursement rate, the penetration of biosimilars and discount price, distribution chains, and the time to reach peak sales for new drugs; 2) estimating the statistical distribution of the budget impact; and 3) testing different pricing and reimbursement policy decisions on health expenditures. CONCLUSIONS: This methodology was independent of historical data and appeared to be highly flexible and adapted to test robustness and provide probabilistic analysis to support policy decision making.

[Cost-effectiveness of a chemotherapy predictive test]. / Analyse coût-efficacité d'un test prédictif de la chimiothérapie dans le cancer du sein (Oncotype DX(®)) en France.

BACKGROUND: In breast cancer, adjuvant chemotherapy is often prescribed as a precautionary measure and sometimes unnecessarily. A diagnostic test based on estimating the risk of recurrence at 10 years for women with breast cancer in early stage has been developed (Oncotype DX(®)). METHOD: A Markov's model was adapted to evaluate the long-term effect of this test in terms of costs and life-years gained in French clinical practice for patients with ER+, HER2-, node-negative early-stage breast cancer. Input data were obtained from an international meta-analysis evaluating the proportions of patients in which the genetic test led to changes in the oncologist's decision. Costs and epidemiological data were specific to France. The analysis was conducted in accordance with methodological recommendations from the Haute Autorité de santé. RESULTS: The test is associated with net cost savings of €570 per patient (€1,600 with productivity loss) from societal perspective and gains of 0.15 life-years and 0.14 quality-adjusted life-years per patient. CONCLUSIONS: The use of the test represents efficient use of health care resources in French practice. This test provides an opportunity to optimize treatment prescription by avoiding unnecessary chemotherapies and by prescribing chemotherapy to women who would not have received it based on standard decision criteria.

Evaluation of the costs and resource use associated with adjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer in France.

OBJECTIVES: There is a paucity of recent data on breast cancer costs, particularly on the burden of chemotherapy. The present study was designed to estimate resource use and costs associated with the current standard of care for adjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer. METHODS: Costs and resource use were assessed by retrospective analysis of medical records at a single comprehensive cancer care center, Hôpital Tenon, Paris, France. Data were extracted from files of female patients having undergone surgical resection of breast cancer between January-July 2010. Patients were included if they received chemotherapy at the hospital and had medical records available. Patients were followed from the start of adjuvant chemotherapy (including pre-chemotherapy) to the end of treatment. Costs were collected for each resource use item from a societal perspective using standard, published sources and expressed in 2011 Euros (€). Limitations of the analysis included the single-center study design and the use of pre-defined questionnaires on resource use (which may conservatively estimate costs). RESULTS: A total of 62 patients were included in the study with a mean age of ∼54 years. Most patients had stage II (50.8%) or stage III (40.7%) disease. Anthracycline plus taxane-based chemotherapy regimens were most commonly prescribed (77% of patients). Mean cost of adjuvant chemotherapy was estimated to be ∼€15,740 per patient from a societal perspective. The acquisition costs of chemotherapy agents were responsible for 26% of the total, with lost productivity (27%), chemotherapy administration (19%), and adverse events (16%) also contributing substantially. CONCLUSIONS: Evaluation of costs in patients with non-metastatic breast cancer in France has shown that the costs of adjuvant chemotherapy are substantial. The main components of total cost were the cost of chemotherapy agents, lost productivity, chemotherapy administration, and management and prevention of adverse events.

ERCC1 and RRM1 in the international adjuvant lung trial by automated quantitative in situ analysis.

The excision repair cross completing group 1 gene product (ERCC1) and the regulatory subunit of ribonucleotide reductase (RRM1) have been reported as being prognostic of outcome and predictive of therapeutic efficacy in patients with non-small cell lung cancer. Routinely processed surgical specimens from 784 patients from the International Adjuvant Lung Trial were arrayed as tissue microarrays. In situ protein levels were scored with an automated, quantitative analysis system, dichotomized into high and low marker categories, and analyzed for associations with patients' characteristics, survival, and benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. Scores for both markers were significantly associated with contributing center (P < 0.001) and skewed, with the bulk of scores being low. High scores were more frequent in women for ERCC1 and RRM1 and in older patients and those with adenocarcinoma for RRM1. Low ERCC1 scores indicated significant benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.73 for chemotherapy versus control, P = 0.02]. Although all other survival associations were not statistically significant, low RRM1 scores trended to indicate benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy (HR = 0.84, P = 0.25), and ERCC1 scores were marginally prognostic of survival (HR = 0.77 for high versus low scores, P = 0.10). We conclude that contributing center and specimen quality substantially affect the levels of both markers. Future trials should incorporate the collection and processing of tumor specimens prospectively on standardized protocols to better reveal the impact of biomarkers on clinically relevant outcomes.

Breast radiotherapy as part of loco-regional treatments in stage IV breast cancer patients with oligometastatic disease.

BACKGROUND: Local treatments seem to improve metastasis progression-free survival (MPFS) and overall survival (OS) when added to systemic therapies in stage IV breast cancer. METHODS: From 1990 to 2003, we reviewed 9138 cases treated and registered in the Institut Gustave-Roussy breast cancer database. Among them, 308 had presented with stage IV disease. Eighty percent of patients (n=239) had received a loco-regional treatment and they were categorized into two groups: loco-regional radiotherapy (LRRT) alone (Group 1; n=147) or breast and axillary surgery+/-LRRT (Group 2; n=92). RESULTS: The median follow-up was 6.5 years. LRRT obtained a long-standing loco-regional clinical response in 85% of patients. The 3-year MPFS rates were 20% in Group 1 and 39% in Group 2; the 3-year OS rates were 39% and 57%, respectively. However, no significant differences in MPFS or OS were observed between the two groups when adjusted on prognostic factors. CONCLUSIONS: Radiation therapy alone provides long-standing local control and yields MPFS and OS rates equivalent to those obtained when radiation therapy is combined with surgery, whatever the prognostic factors. Loco-regional therapies, especially radiation therapy alone, may have an important role to play in the treatment of selected patients with stage IV breast cancer.