Prediction of Severe Baseline Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis and Subsequent Risk of Stroke and Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: Risk models to identify patients at high risk of asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis (ACAS) can help in selecting patients for screening, but long-term outcomes in these patients are unknown. We assessed the diagnostic and prognostic value of the previously published Prevalence of ACAS (PACAS) risk model to detect ACAS at baseline and to predict subsequent risk of stroke and cardiovascular disease (CVD) during follow-up. METHODS: We validated the discrimination and calibration of the PACAS risk model to detect severe (≥70% narrowing) ACAS with patients from the Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health registry. We subsequently calculated the incidence rates of stroke and CVD (fatal and nonfatal stroke or myocardial infarction or vascular death) during follow-up in 4 risk groups (low, medium, high, and very high, corresponding to sum scores of ≤9, 10-13, 14-17, and ≥18, respectively). RESULTS: Among 26 384 patients, aged between 45 and 80 years, without prior carotid procedures, 1662 (6.3%) had severe baseline ACAS. During ≈70 000 patient-years of follow-up, 1124 strokes and 2484 CVD events occurred. Discrimination of the PACAS model was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.68), and calibration showed adequate concordance between predicted and observed risks of severe baseline ACAS after recalibration. Significantly higher incidence rates of stroke (Ptrend<0.011) and CVD (Ptrend<0.0001) during follow-up were found with increasing PACAS risk groups. Among patients with high PACAS sum score of ≥14 (corresponding to 27.7% of all patients), severe baseline ACAS prevalence was 11.4%. In addition, 56.6% of incident strokes and 64.9% of incident CVD events occurred in this group. CONCLUSIONS: The PACAS risk model can reliably identify patients at high risk of severe baseline ACAS. Incidence rates of stroke and CVD during follow-up were significantly higher in patients with high PACAS sum scores. Selective screening of patients with high PACAS sum scores may help to prevent future stroke or CVD.

Addressing residual risk beyond statin therapy: New targets in the management of dyslipidaemias-A report from the European Society of Cardiology Cardiovascular Round Table.

Cardiovascular (CV) disease is the most common cause of death in Europe. Despite proven benefits, use of lipid-lowering therapy remains suboptimal. Treatment goals are often not achieved, even in patients at high risk with atherosclerotic CV disease (ASCVD). The occurrence of CV events in patients on lipid-lowering drugs is defined as "residual risk", and can result from inadequate control of plasma lipids or blood pressure, inflammation, diabetes, and environmental hazards. Assessment of CV risk factors and vascular imaging can aid in the evaluation and management decisions for individual patients. Lifestyle measures remain the primary intervention for lowering CV risk. Where drug therapies are required to reach lipid treatment targets, their effectiveness increases when they are combined with lifestyle measures delivered through formal programs. However, lipid drug dosage and poor adherence to treatment remain major obstacles to event-free survival. This article discusses guideline-supported treatment algorithms beyond statin therapy that can help reduce residual risk in specific patient profiles while also likely resulting in substantial healthcare savings through better patient management and treatment adherence.

Adding ethnicity to cardiovascular risk prediction: External validation and model updating of SCORE2 using data from the HELIUS population cohort.

BACKGROUND: Current prediction models for mainland Europe do not include ethnicity, despite ethnic disparities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. SCORE2 performance was evaluated across the largest ethnic groups in the Netherlands and ethnic backgrounds were added to the model. METHODS: 11,614 participants, aged between 40 and 70 years without CVD, from the population-based multi-ethnic HELIUS study were included. Fine and Gray models were used to calculate sub-distribution hazard ratios (SHR) for South-Asian Surinamese, African Surinamese, Ghanaian, Turkish and Moroccan origin groups, representing their CVD risk relative to the Dutch group, on top of individual SCORE2 risk predictions. Model performance was evaluated by discrimination, calibration and net reclassification index (NRI). RESULTS: Overall, 274 fatal and non-fatal CVD events, and 146 non-cardiovascular deaths were observed during a median of 7.8 years follow-up (IQR 6.8-8.8). SHRs for CVD events were 1.86 (95 % CI 1.31-2.65) for the South-Asian Surinamese, 1.09 (95 % CI 0.76-1.56) for the African-Surinamese, 1.48 (95 % CI 0.94-2.31) for the Ghanaian, 1.63 (95 % CI 1.09-2.44) for the Turkish, and 0.67 (95 % CI 0.39-1.18) for the Moroccan origin groups. Adding ethnicity to SCORE2 yielded comparable calibration and discrimination [0.764 (95 % CI 0.735-0.792) vs. 0.769 (95 % CI 0.740-0.797)]. The NRI for adding ethnicity to SCORE2 was 0.24 (95 % CI 0.18-0.31) for events and - 0.12 (95 % CI -0.13-0.12) for non-events. CONCLUSIONS: Adding ethnicity to the SCORE2 risk prediction model in a middle-aged, multi-ethnic Dutch population did not improve overall discrimination but improved risk classification, potentially helping to address CVD disparities through timely treatment.

Course of the effects of LDL-cholesterol reduction on cardiovascular risk over time: A meta-analysis of 60 randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Individuals with or at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) often receive long-term treatment with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering therapies, but whether the effects of LDL-C reduction remain stable over time is uncertain. This study aimed to establish the course of the effects of LDL-C reduction on cardiovascular risk over time. METHODS: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of LDL-C lowering therapies were identified through a search in MEDLINE and EMBASE (1966-January 2023). The primary analyses were restricted to statins, ezetimibe, and proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors, with other therapies included in sensitivity analyses. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed to establish the hazard ratio (HR) for major vascular events (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, coronary revascularization, or stroke) per 1 mmol/L LDL-C reduction. Course of the effects over time was assessed using random-effects meta-regression analyses for the association between follow-up duration, age, and the HR for major vascular events per 1 mmol/L LDL-C reduction. Additionally, treatment-by-time interactions were evaluated in an individual participant data meta-analysis of six atorvastatin trials. RESULTS: A total of 60 RCTs were identified (408,959 participants, 51,425 major vascular events). The HR for major vascular events per 1 mmol/L LDL-C reduction was 0.78 (95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.75-0.81). Follow-up duration was not associated with a change in the HR for major vascular events (HR for change per year 0.994; 95 % CI 0.970-1.020; p = 0.66). The HR attenuated with increasing age in primary prevention (HR for change per 5 years 1.097; 95 % CI 1.031-1.168; p = 0.003), but not secondary prevention (HR for change per 5 years 0.987; 95 % CI 0.936-1.040; p = 0.63). Consistent results were found for statin trials only, and all trials combined. In the individual participant data meta-analysis (31,310 participants, 6734 major vascular events), the HR for major vascular events did not significantly change over follow-up time (HR for change per year 0.983; 95 % CI 0.943-1.025; p = 0.42), or age (HR for change per 5 years 1.022; 95 % CI 0.990-1.055; p = 0.18). CONCLUSIONS: Based on available RCT data with limited follow-up duration, the relative treatment effects of LDL-C reduction are stable over time in secondary prevention, but may attenuate with higher age in primary prevention.

Cyclical Etidronate Reduces the Progression of Arterial Calcifications in Patients with Pseudoxanthoma Elasticum: A 6-Year Prospective Observational Study.

Background: Pseudoxanthoma elasticum (PXE), a rare genetic disorder presenting with slowly progressing calcification of various tissues, including the arteries, is caused by mutations in the ABCC6 gene that lead to the reduction of pyrophosphate, a natural inhibitor of calcification. We showed that, compared to a placebo, the cyclical administration of etidronate, a stable pyrophosphate analog, significantly reduced arterial calcification assessed by low-dose CT scans after one year. The aim of the present prospective, single center, observational cohort study was the assessment of the efficacy and safety of cyclical etidronate in patients treated for periods longer than one year. Methods: Seventy-three patients were followed for a median of 3.6 years without etidronate and 2.8 years with etidronate, and each patient served as their own control. Results: The median absolute yearly progression of total calcification volume during the period with etidronate (388 [83-838] µL) was significantly lower than that without etidronate (761 [362-1415] µL; p < 0.001). The rates of the relative progression of arterial calcification were 11.7% (95% CI: 9.6-13.9) without etidronate compared to 5.3% (95% CI: 3.7-7.0) with etidronate, after adjustment for confounders. Conclusions: The cyclical administration of etidronate for nearly 3 years significantly reduced the progression rate of arterial calcification in patients with PXE with pre-existing calcifications without any serious adverse effects.

Estimating uncertainty when providing individual cardiovascular risk predictions: a Bayesian survival analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores provide point estimates of individual risk without uncertainty quantification. The objective of the current study was to demonstrate the feasibility and clinical utility of calculating uncertainty surrounding individual CVD-risk predictions using Bayesian methods. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Individuals with established atherosclerotic CVD were included from the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease (UCC-SMART). In 8,355 individuals, followed for median of 8.2 years (IQR 4.2-12.5), a Bayesian Weibull model was derived to predict the 10-year risk of recurrent CVD events. RESULTS: Model coefficients and individual predictions from the Bayesian model were very similar to that of a traditional ('frequentist') model but the Bayesian model also predicted 95% credible intervals (CIs) surrounding individual risk estimates. The median width of the individual 95%CrI was 5.3% (IQR 3.6-6.5) and 17% of the population had a 95%CrI width of 10% or greater. The uncertainty decreased with increasing sample size used for derivation of the model. Combining the Bayesian Weibull model with sampled hazard ratios based on trial reports may be used to estimate individual estimates of absolute risk reduction with uncertainty measures and the probability that a treatment option will result in a clinically relevant risk reduction. CONCLUSION: Estimating uncertainty surrounding individual CVD risk predictions using Bayesian methods is feasible. The uncertainty regarding individual risk predictions could have several applications in clinical practice, like the comparison of different treatment options or by calculating the probability of the individual risk being below a certain treatment threshold. However, as the individual uncertainty measures only reflect sampling error and no biases in risk prediction, physicians should be familiar with the interpretation before widespread clinical adaption.

Risk-stratified analysis of long-term clinical outcomes and cumulative costs in Finnish patients with recent acute coronary syndrome or coronary revascularization: a 5-year real-world study using electronic health records.

Aims: Risk assessment is essential in the prevention of cardiovascular disease. In patients with recent acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or coronary revascularization, risk prediction tools, like the European Society of Cardiology guideline recommended SMART-REACH risk score, are increasingly used to predict the risk of recurrent cardiovascular events enabling risk-based personalized prevention. However, little is known about the association between risk stratification and the social and healthcare costs at a population level. This study evaluated the associations between baseline SMART-REACH risk scores, long-term recurrent clinical events, cumulative costs, and post-index event LDL-C goal attainment in patients with recent ACS and/or revascularization. Methods and results: This retrospective study used electronic health records and was conducted in the North Karelia region of Finland. The study cohort included all patients aged 45-85 admitted to a hospital for ACS or who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass surgery between 1 January 2017 and 31 December 2021. Patients were divided into quintiles based on their baseline SMART-REACH risk scores to examine the associations between predicted 5-year scores and selected clinical and economic outcomes. In addition, simple age-based stratification was conducted as a sensitivity analysis. The observed 5-year cumulative incidence of recurrent events ranged from 20% in the lowest to 41% in the highest risk quintile, whereas the corresponding predicted risks ranged from 13% to 51%, and cumulative 5-year mean total costs per patient ranged from 15 827 to 46 182€, respectively. Both monitoring and attainment of low LDL-C values were suboptimal. Conclusion: The use of the SMART-REACH quintiles as a population-level risk stratification tool successfully stratified patients into subgroups with different cumulative numbers of recurrent events and cumulative total costs. However, more research is needed to define clinically and economically optimal threshold values for a population-level stratification.

Use of combination therapy is associated with improved LDL-cholesterol management: 1-year follow-up results from the European observational SANTORINI study.

AIM: To assess whether implementation of the 2019 ESC/EAS dyslipidaemia guidelines observed between 2020-2021 improved between 2021-2022 in the SANTORINI study. METHODS: High- or very-high cardiovascular (CV) risk patients were recruited across 14 European countries from March 2020-February 2021, with 1-year prospective follow-up until May 2022. Lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) and 2019 ESC/EAS risk-based low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) goal attainment (defined as <1.4 mmol/L for patients at very high CV risk and <1.8 mmol/L for patients at high CV risk) at 1-year follow-up were compared with baseline. . RESULTS: Of 9559 patients enrolled, 9136 (2626 high risk, 6504 very high risk) had any follow-up data, and 7210 (2033 high risk, 5173 very high risk) had baseline and follow-up LDL-C data. LLT was escalated in one-third of patients and unchanged in two-thirds. Monotherapy and combination therapy usage rose from 53.6% and 25.6% to 57.1% and 37.9%, respectively. Mean LDL-C levels decreased from 2.4 mmol/L to 2.0 mmol/L. Goal attainment improved from 21.2% to 30.9%, largely driven by LLT use among those not on LLT at baseline. Goal attainment was greater with combination therapy compared with monotherapy at follow-up (39.4 vs 25.5%). CONCLUSIONS: LLT use and achievement of risk-based lipid goals increased over 1-year follow-up particularly when combination LLT was used. Nonetheless, most patients remained above goal, hence strategies are needed to improve implementation of combination LLT.

Cardiovascular diseases, a group of disorders of the heart and blood vessels, are the most common cause of death worldwide. Lowering low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol in the bloodstream reduces the risk of developing cardiovascular diseases, such as heart attacks and strokes. Guidelines recommend that those at highest risk of cardiovascular disease should achieve the lowest levels of LDL cholesterol. Several medications are available that help lower LDL cholesterol levels and prevent cardiovascular events, however, recent studies have shown that the majority of patients continue to have LDL cholesterol levels above optimal value in part due to suboptimal use of these medications. Here we report the results after 1 year of follow-up of the SANTORINI study (started in 2020) which aimed to document the management of LDL cholesterol in clinical practice across 14 countries in Europe. We found that better control of LDL cholesterol occurred when more than one drug was used (combination therapy). Use of combination therapy was low at the start of the study 25.6% but increased over 1 year to 37.9%, resulting in better control of LDL cholesterol at 1 year than observed at the start of the study. Nonetheless, only 31% of patients achieved their LDL cholesterol target levels based on the European guidelines. Greater use of combination therapies is needed in order to improve the overall population level control of LDL cholesterol.

Relationship of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, in addition to C-reactive protein, with cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes.

AIM: To quantify the relationship of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) with cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D), independent of C-reactive protein (CRP). METHODS: Patients with T2D from the UCC-SMART-cohort were studied using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. The relationship of NLR and CRP with vascular events (cerebrovascular events, myocardial infarction and vascular death) and all-cause mortality was quantified. RESULTS: During 10,833 person-years, 232 vascular events and 302 deaths occurred in 1,239 patients with T2D. Risk of vascular events and all-cause mortality increased per standard deviation (SD) in NLR (hazard ratio (HR) 1.27; 95 % confidence interval (CI):1.11-1.46) and 1.15; 95 % CI:1.02-1.30) after adjustment for CRP. CRP was not associated with vascular events after adjustment for NLR, (HR per SD 1.03; 95 % CI: 0.90-1.19), but was associated with all-cause mortality (HR per SD 1.18; 95 % CI: 1.04-1.33). Notably, NLR was related to vascular events in patients with CRP < 2 mg/L (HR per unit 1.45; 95 % CI: 1.19-1.77). CONCLUSION: In patients with T2D, NLR is related to higher risk of CVD and all-cause mortality, independently from CRP. NLR is related to CVD even when CRP is low, indicating that NLR is a marker of CVD-risk in addition to CRP. Both NLR and CRP are independently related to all-cause mortality in T2D patients.

Association of body mass index and waist circumference with long-term mortality risk in 10,370 coronary patients and potential modification by lifestyle and health determinants.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Body adiposity is known to affect mortality risk in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). We examined associations of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) with long term mortality in Dutch CAD patients, and potential and effect modification of these associations by lifestyle and health determinants. METHODS: 10,370 CAD patients (mean age ∼65 y; 20% female; >80% on cardiovascular drugs) from the prospective Alpha Omega Cohort and Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease study were included. Cox models were used to estimate categorical and continuous associations (using restricted cubic splines) of measured BMI and WC with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk, adjusting for age, sex, smoking, alcohol, physical activity and educational level. Analyses were repeated in subgroups of lifestyle factors (smoking, physical activity, diet quality), education and health determinants (diabetes, self-rated health). RESULTS: During ∼10 years of follow-up (91,947 person-years), 3,553 deaths occurred, including 1,620 from cardiovascular disease. U-shaped relationships were found for BMI and mortality risk, with the lowest risk for overweight patients (BMI ∼27 kg/m2). For obesity (BMI ≥30), the HR for all-cause mortality was 1.31 (95% CI: 1.11, 1.41) in male patients and 1.10 (95% CI: 0.92, 1.30) in female patients, compared to BMI 25-30 kg/m2. WC was also non-linearly associated with mortality, and HRs were 1.18 (95%CI:1.06, 1.30) in males and 1.31 (95%CI:1.05, 1.64) in females for the highest vs. middle category of WC. Results for cardiovascular mortality were mostly in line with the results for all-cause mortality. U-shaped associations were found in most subgroups, associations were moderately modified by physical activity, smoking and educational level. CONCLUSIONS: CAD patients with obesity and a large WC were at increased risk of long-term CVD and all-cause mortality, while mildly overweight patients had the lowest risk. These associations were consistent across subgroups of patients with different lifestyles and health status.

Dietary habits and compliance with dietary guidelines in patients with established cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Unhealthy dietary habits are an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and adopting a healthy diet is a central recommendation in CVD prevention. This study assessed the dietary habits of patients with established CVD, their compliance to dietary guidelines, and the relationship between guideline-compliance and recurrent cardiovascular event risk. METHODS: 2656 patients with established CVD from the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease (UCC-SMART) prospective cohort study, were included between 1996 and 2022. Data on dietary intake was retrospectively collected for all participants in December 2022 using a 160-item food frequency questionnaire. Compliance with dietary guidelines was quantified using an amended version of the Dutch Healthy Diet 2015 (DHD-15) index (range: 0-135). Cox proportional hazard models were used to quantify the relationship with cardiovascular events (stroke and myocardial infarction). RESULTS: Among 2656 CVD patients (77% male, mean age 59 ± 9 years), median energy intake was 1922 [IQR: 1536-2351] kcal/day. The median DHD-15 index was 81.7 [IQR 71.2-92.0], with high compliance scores for recommendations on legumes and fish, and low scores for recommendations on whole grains, red meat, processed meat, and dairy. A higher DHD-15 score was associated with lower stroke risk (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.66-0.92 per 10-point increase) but not with myocardial infarction. CONCLUSION: Compliance with dietary guidelines was suboptimal in patients with established CVD. High compliance was associated with a clinically significant reduction in stroke risk in patients with established CVD, emphasizing the importance of dietary counseling.

Development and validation of a lifetime prediction model for incident type 2 diabetes in patients with established cardiovascular disease: the CVD2DM model.

AIMS: Identifying patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) who are at high risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) may allow for early interventions, reducing the development of T2D and associated morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate the CVD2DM model to estimate the 10-year and lifetime risks of T2D in patients with established CVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Sex-specific, competing risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were derived in 19 281 participants with established CVD and without diabetes at baseline from the UK Biobank. The core model's pre-specified predictors were age, current smoking, family history of diabetes mellitus, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, and HDL cholesterol. The extended model also included HbA1c. The model was externally validated in 3481 patients from the UCC-SMART study. During a median follow-up of 12.2 years (interquartile interval 11.3-13.1), 1628 participants with established CVD were diagnosed with T2D in the UK Biobank. External validation c-statistics were 0.79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-0.82] for the core model and 0.81 (95% CI 0.78-0.84) for the extended model. Calibration plots showed agreement between predicted and observed 10-year risk of T2D. CONCLUSION: The 10-year and lifetime risks of T2D can be estimated with the CVD2DM model in patients with established CVD, using readily available clinical predictors. The model would benefit from further validation across diverse ethnic groups to enhance its applicability. Informing patients about their T2D risk could motivate them further to adhere to a healthy lifestyle.

In this study, we developed and externally validated the CVD2DM model, which predicts the 10-year and lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in individuals who already have cardiovascular disease (CVD). The key findings are as follows:The CVD2DM model is the first model to estimate the risk of developing T2D applicable in all patients with atherosclerotic CVD. The model is based on several factors available in clinical practice, such as age, fasting plasma glucose, family history of diabetes, and body mass index. It was developed in 19 281 patients from the UK Biobank. The model performed well in 3481 patients from the UCC-SMART study.Informing patients about their T2D risk could motivate them further to adhere to a healthy lifestyle.

Effects of icosapent ethyl according to baseline residual risk in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: results from REDUCE-IT.

AIMS: Icosapent ethyl lowers triglycerides and significantly reduces major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), though treatment effects may vary between individuals. This study aimed to determine the relative and absolute effects of icosapent ethyl on MACE according to baseline cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants from the Reduction of Cardiovascular Events with Icosapent Ethyl-Intervention Trial (REDUCE-IT) with ASCVD were included (n = 5785). The primary outcome was 3-point MACE, i.e. non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. Baseline 5-year risk of MACE was estimated using the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline-recommended SMART2 risk score. Modification of the relative treatment effects of icosapent ethyl by baseline risk was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models, including a treatment-by-risk interaction. Next, treatment effects were assessed stratified by quartiles of baseline risk. During a median follow-up of 4.8 years (interquartile range 3.2-5.3), MACE occurred in 361 vs. 489 patients in the icosapent ethyl vs. placebo group [95% confidence interval (CI)]; hazard ratio (HR) 0.72 (0.63-0.82), absolute risk reduction (ARR) 4.4% (2.6-6.2%), number needed to treat (NNT) 23 (16-38), and 5-year Kaplan-Meier estimated cumulative incidence reduction (CIR) 5.7% (3.5-7.9%). Icosapent ethyl significantly reduced MACE in all risk quartiles, with an HR (95% CI) of 0.62 (0.43-0.88), 0.66 (0.48-0.92), 0.69 (0.53-0.90), and 0.78 (0.63-0.96), respectively (P for treatment-by-risk interaction = 0.106). The ARR (95% CI) increased across risk quartiles, i.e. was 3.9% (1.0-6.8%), 4.3% (1.2-7.3%), 5.1% (1.4-8.7%), and 5.6% (1.3-10.0%), respectively. This translates to NNTs (95% CI) of 26 (15-98), 24 (14-84), 20 (11-70), and 18 (10-77). The 5-year CIR (95% CI) was 4.8% (1.3-8.2%), 5.0% (1.3-8.7%), 6.1% (1.7-10.5%), and 7.7% (2.3-13.2%), respectively. Consistent results were obtained for 5-point MACE, additionally including coronary revascularization and unstable angina. CONCLUSION: Among patients with ASCVD and elevated triglyceride levels, icosapent ethyl significantly reduces the risk of MACE irrespective of baseline CVD risk, though absolute benefits are largest for patients at the highest risk.

Lifetime and 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with type 1 diabetes: The LIFE-T1D model.

AIMS: To develop and externally validate the LIFE-T1D model for the estimation of lifetime and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with type 1 diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A sex-specific competing risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model was derived in individuals with type 1 diabetes without prior CVD from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR), using age as the time axis. Predictors included age at diabetes onset, smoking status, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, glycated haemoglobin level, estimated glomerular filtration rate, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, albuminuria and retinopathy. The model was externally validated in the Danish Funen Diabetes Database (FDDB) and the UK Biobank. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 11.8 years (interquartile interval 6.1-17.1 years), 4608 CVD events and 1316 non-CVD deaths were observed in the NDR (n = 39 756). The internal validation c-statistic was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-0.85) and the external validation c-statistics were 0.77 (95% CI 0.74-0.81) for the FDDB (n = 2709) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.77) for the UK Biobank (n = 1022). Predicted risks were consistent with the observed incidence in the derivation and both validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The LIFE-T1D model can estimate lifetime risk of CVD and CVD-free life expectancy in individuals with type 1 diabetes without previous CVD. This model can facilitate individualized CVD prevention among individuals with type 1 diabetes. Validation in additional cohorts will improve future clinical implementation.

Sex differences in modifiable risk factors for stroke incidence and recurrence: the UCC-SMART study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Risk factors for stroke differ between women and men in general populations. However, little is known about sex differences in secondary prevention. We investigated if sex interacted with modifiable risk factors for stroke in a large arterial disease cohort. METHODS: Within the prospective UCC-SMART study, 13,898 patients (35% women) with atherosclerotic disease or high-risk factor profile were followed up to 23 years for stroke incidence or recurrence. Hypertension, smoking, diabetes, overweight, dyslipidemia, high alcohol use, and physical inactivity were studied as risk factors. Association between these factors and ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke incidence or recurrence was studied in women and men using Cox proportional hazard models and Poisson regression models. Women-to-men relative hazard ratios (RHR) and rate differences (RD) were estimated for each risk factor. Left-truncated age was used as timescale. RESULTS: The age-adjusted stroke incidence rate was lower in women than men (3.9 vs 4.4 per 1000 person-years), as was the age-adjusted stroke recurrence rate (10.0 vs 11.7). Hypertension and smoking were associated with stroke risk in both sexes. HDL cholesterol was associated with lower stroke incidence in women but not in men (RHR 0.49; CI 0.27-0.88; and RD 1.39; CI - 1.31 to 4.10). Overweight was associated with a lower stroke recurrence in women but not in men (RHR 0.42; CI 0.23-0.80; and RD 9.05; CI 2.78-15.32). CONCLUSIONS: In high-risk population, sex modifies the association of HDL cholesterol on stroke incidence, and the association of overweight on stroke recurrence. Our findings highlight the importance of sex-specific secondary prevention.

Cost-effectiveness of Mediterranean diet and physical activity in secondary cardiovascular disease prevention: results from the UCC-SMART cohort study.

AIMS: The efficacy of a healthy lifestyle in secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well established and a first-line recommendation in CVD prevention guidelines. The aim of this study was to assess whether Mediterranean diet and physical activity are also cost-effective in patients with established CVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: A cost-utility analysis (CUA) was performed comparing a combined Mediterranean diet and physical activity intervention to usual care in patients with CVD. The CUA had a healthcare perspective and lifetime horizon. Costs and utilities were estimated using a microsimulation on a cohort of 100 000 patients with CVD sampled from the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease study (n = 8947, mean age 62 ± 8.7 years, and 74% male). Cost-effectiveness was expressed as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), incremental net health benefit (INHB), and incremental net monetary benefit (INMB). Mediterranean diet and physical activity yielded 2.0 incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and cost reductions of €1236 per person compared with usual care, resulting in an ICER of €-626/QALY [95% confidence interval (CI) -1929 to 2673]. At a willingness-to-pay of €20 000/QALY, INHB was 2.04 (95% CI 0.99-3.58) QALYs and INMB was €40 757 (95% CI 19 819-71 605). The interventions remained cost-effective in a wide range of sensitivity analyses, including worst-case scenarios and scenarios with reimbursement for food and physical activity costs. CONCLUSION: In patients with established CVD, a combined Mediterranean diet and physical activity intervention was cost-saving and highly cost-effective compared with usual care. These findings strongly advocate for the incorporation of lifestyle interventions as integral components of care for all patients with CVD.

Lifestyle optimization, including physical activity and healthy diet, is a central recommendation for preventing recurrent cardiovascular events. In this study, we assessed whether improving physical activity habits and adherence to a heart-healthy Mediterranean diet would also be a cost-effective option. The results were remarkable­following the Mediterranean diet and engaging in physical activity were expected to result in an increase of 2.0 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs, equal to a life year in perfect health) and cost savings. This means that lifestyle optimization in secondary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention improves population health, while reducing overall healthcare costs. These findings underscore the importance of implementing lifestyle changes in the care for all individuals with CVD. A healthy lifestyle is not only effective in improving health but also a prudent financial decision.A combined Mediterranean diet and physical activity intervention is expected to result in two additional QALYs and three additional life years free of recurrent cardiovascular events per patient with established CVD.Targeting a healthy lifestyle is expected to lead to cost savings compared with usual care, due to the low costs of the intervention and the high efficacy in preventing recurrent cardiovascular events.Lifestyle optimization in secondary CVD prevention was shown to result in a dominant incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €−626/QALY, which strongly advocates for healthy policy targeted at implementing lifestyle interventions in regular care for patients with CVD.

Impact of the 2021 European Society for Cardiology prevention guideline's stepwise approach for cardiovascular risk factor treatment in patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

AIMS: This study aimed to evaluate the stepwise approach for cardiovascular (CV) risk factor treatment as outlined by the European Society for Cardiology 2021 guidelines on CV disease (CVD) prevention in patients with established atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: In patients with ASCVD, included in UCC-SMART (n = 8730) and European parts of the REACH registry (n = 18 364), the 10-year CV risk was estimated using SMART2. Treatment effects were derived from meta-analyses and trials. Step 1 recommendations were LDL cholesterol (LDLc) < 1.8 mmol/L, systolic blood pressure (SBP) < 140 mmHg, using any antithrombotic medication, sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibition, and smoking cessation. Step 2 recommendations were LDLc < 1.4 mmol/L, SBP < 130 mmHg, dual-pathway inhibition (DPI, aspirin plus low-dose rivaroxaban), colchicine, glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1 receptor agonists, and eicosapentaenoic acid. Step 2 was modelled accounting for Step 1 non-attainment. With current treatment, residual CV risk was 22%, 32%, and 60% in the low, moderate, and pooled (very) high European risk regions, respectively. Step 2 could prevent up to 198, 223 and 245 events per 1000 patients treated, respectively. Intensified LDLc reduction, colchicine, and DPI could be applied to most patients, preventing up to 57, 74, and 59 events per 1000 patients treated, respectively. Following Step 2, the number of patients with a CV risk of <10% could increase from 20%, 6.4%, and 0.5%, following Step 1, to 63%, 48%, and 12%, in the respective risk regions. CONCLUSION: With current treatment, residual CV risk in patients with ASCVD remains high across all European risk regions. The intensified Step 2 treatment options result in marked further reduction of residual CV risk in patients with established ASCVD. KEY FINDINGS: Guideline-recommended intensive treatment of patients with cardiovascular disease could prevent additional 198-245 new cardiovascular events for every 1000 patients treated.

Patients with established cardiovascular disease are at high risk for new cardiovascular events. The European Society of Cardiology guideline for the prevention of cardiovascular disease introduced a stepwise treatment approach. Step 1 in this approach are treatments that apply to all patients, and Step 2 are intensive treatments that can be prescribed to patients who are still at high risk of new events even with Step 1 treatments. The current study investigates the effect of Steps 1 and 2 on the risk of cardiovascular disease in 27 094 patients all across Europe. With the conventional treatments of Step 1 the risk of cardiovascular disease remains high, with a 10-year risk of new events higher than 10% in 80­99% of patients. The intensive treatment options from Step 2 could prevent additional 198­245 new cardiovascular events for every 1000 patients that are treated. With intensive treatment, up to 63% of patients could achieve a 10-year risk of new cardiovascular disease below 10%.