Ethnicity as a predictor of outcomes of psychological therapies for anxiety and depression: a retrospective cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Studies on predictors of outcomes of treatment for common mental health disorders (CMDs) in community mental health settings are scarce, and sample sizes are often small. Research on the impact of identifying as a member of an ethnic minority group on treatment outcomes is limited. AIMS: To ascertain whether ethnicity is an independent predictor of outcome and the extent to which any association is mediated by other sociodemographic factors. METHOD: Retrospective observational study of anonymised treatment data collected for routine clinical purposes. Data were analysed from nine Improving Access to Psychological Therapy (IAPT) services from 2009 to 2016. Social functioning, ethnic group, age, gender, occupation and baseline severity of the mental health disorder were analysed as predictors of outcome. RESULTS: Outcomes varied with ethnic group. Levels of occupation, social deprivation, initial morbidity and social functioning varied between ethnic groups at baseline. After adjustment for these factors the impact of ethnicity was attenuated and only some ethnic groups remained as significant independent predictors of treatment outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Ethnic minority status is a marker for multiple disadvantages. Some of the differences in outcome seen between ethnic groups may be the result of more general factors present in all ethnic groups but at greater intensity in some ethnic minority groups.

Noradrenergic Add-on Therapy with Extended-Release Guanfacine in Alzheimer's Disease (NorAD): study protocol for a randomised clinical trial and COVID-19 amendments.

BACKGROUND: Guanfacine is a α2A adrenergic receptor agonist approved for treating attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). It is thought to act via postsynaptic receptors in the prefrontal cortex, modulating executive functions including the regulation of attention. Attention is affected early in Alzheimer's disease (AD), and this may relate to pathological changes within the locus coeruleus, the main source of noradrenergic pathways within the brain. Given that cholinergic pathways, also involved in attention, are disrupted in AD, the combination of noradrenergic and cholinergic treatments may have a synergistic effect on symptomatic AD. The primary objective of the NorAD trial is to evaluate the change in cognition with 12 weeks of treatment of extended-release guanfacine (GXR) against a placebo as a combination therapy with cholinesterase inhibitors in participants with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease. METHODS/DESIGN: NorAD is a 3-month, single-centre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase III trial of extended-release guanfacine (GXR) in participants with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease. A total of 160 participants will be randomised to receive either daily guanfacine or placebo in combination with approved cholinesterase treatment for 12 weeks. The primary outcome is the change in cognition, as measured by the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog), from baseline to follow-up in the treatment group compared to the placebo group. Secondary outcomes include the change in additional cognitive measures of attention (Tests of Attention: Trails A and B, digit-symbol substitution, Test of Everyday Attention and CANTAB-RVP), neuropsychiatric symptoms (Neuropsychiatric Inventory), caregiver burden (Zarit Burden Interview) and activities of daily living (Alzheimer's Disease Co-operative Study - Activities of Daily Living Inventory). From July 2020, observation of change following cessation of treatment is also being assessed. DISCUSSION: There is strong evidence for early noradrenergic dysfunction in Alzheimer's disease. The NorAD trial aims to determine whether guanfacine, a noradrenergic alpha-2 agonist, improves attention and cognition when used in addition to standard cholinergic treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03116126 . Registered on 14 April 2017 EudraCT: 2016-002598-36.

Evaluating cognitive profiles of patients undergoing clinical amyloid-PET imaging.

Episodic memory impairment and brain amyloid-beta are two of the main hallmarks of Alzheimer's Disease. In the clinical setting, these are often evaluated through neuropsychological testing and amyloid PET imaging, respectively. The use of amyloid PET in clinical practice is only indicated in patients with substantial diagnostic uncertainty due to atypical clinical presentation, multiple comorbidities and/or early age of onset. The relationship between amyloid-beta and cognition has been previously investigated, but no study has examined how neuropsychological features relate to the presence of amyloid pathology in the clinical population that meets the appropriate use criteria for amyloid PET imaging. In this study, we evaluated a clinical cohort of patients (n = 107) who presented at the Imperial Memory Clinic and were referred for clinical amyloid PET and neuropsychological assessment as part of their diagnostic workup. We compared the cognitive performance of amyloid-positive patients (Aß-pos, n = 47) with that of stable amyloid-negative (stableAß-neg, n = 26) and progressive amyloid-negative (progAß-neg, n = 34) patients. The amyloid-positive group performed significantly worse than both amyloid-negative groups in the visuospatial and working memory domains. Episodic memory performance, however, effectively differentiated the amyloid-positive group from the stable but not the progressive amyloid-negative group. On affective questionnaires, the stable amyloid-negative group reported significantly higher levels of depression than the amyloid-positive group. In our clinical cohort, visuospatial dysfunction and working memory impairment were better indicators of amyloid positivity than episodic memory dysfunction. These findings highlight the limited value of isolated cognitive scores in patients with atypical clinical presentation, comorbidities and/or early age of onset.

A video-feedback parenting intervention to prevent enduring behaviour problems in at-risk children aged 12-36 months: the Healthy Start, Happy Start RCT.

BACKGROUND: Behaviour problems emerge early in childhood and place children at risk for later psychopathology. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a parenting intervention to prevent enduring behaviour problems in young children. DESIGN: A pragmatic, assessor-blinded, multisite, two-arm, parallel-group randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Health visiting services in six NHS trusts in England. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 300 at-risk children aged 12-36 months and their parents/caregivers. INTERVENTIONS: Families were allocated in a 1 : 1 ratio to six sessions of Video-feedback Intervention to promote Positive Parenting and Sensitive Discipline (VIPP-SD) plus usual care or usual care alone. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the Preschool Parental Account of Children's Symptoms, which is a structured interview of behaviour symptoms. Secondary outcomes included caregiver-reported total problems on the Child Behaviour Checklist and the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. The intervention effect was estimated using linear regression. Health and social care service use was recorded using the Child and Adolescent Service Use Schedule and cost-effectiveness was explored using the Preschool Parental Account of Children's Symptoms. RESULTS: In total, 300 families were randomised: 151 to VIPP-SD plus usual care and 149 to usual care alone. Follow-up data were available for 286 (VIPP-SD, n = 140; usual care, n = 146) participants and 282 (VIPP-SD, n = 140; usual care, n = 142) participants at 5 and 24 months, respectively. At the post-treatment (primary outcome) follow-up, a group difference of 2.03 on Preschool Parental Account of Children's Symptoms (95% confidence interval 0.06 to 4.01; p = 0.04) indicated a positive treatment effect on behaviour problems (Cohen's d = 0.20, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.40). The effect was strongest for children's conduct [1.61, 95% confidence interval 0.44 to 2.78; p = 0.007 (d = 0.30, 95% confidence interval 0.08 to 0.51)] versus attention deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms [0.29, 95% confidence interval -1.06 to 1.65; p = 0.67 (d = 0.05, 95% confidence interval -0.17 to 0.27)]. The Child Behaviour Checklist [3.24, 95% confidence interval -0.06 to 6.54; p = 0.05 (d = 0.15, 95% confidence interval 0.00 to 0.31)] and the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire [0.93, 95% confidence interval -0.03 to 1.9; p = 0.06 (d = 0.18, 95% confidence interval -0.01 to 0.36)] demonstrated similar positive treatment effects to those found for the Preschool Parental Account of Children's Symptoms. At 24 months, the group difference on the Preschool Parental Account of Children's Symptoms was 1.73 [95% confidence interval -0.24 to 3.71; p = 0.08 (d = 0.17, 95% confidence interval -0.02 to 0.37)]; the effect remained strongest for conduct [1.07, 95% confidence interval -0.06 to 2.20; p = 0.06 (d = 0.20, 95% confidence interval -0.01 to 0.42)] versus attention deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms [0.62, 95% confidence interval -0.60 to 1.84; p = 0.32 (d = 0.10, 95% confidence interval -0.10 to 0.30)], with little evidence of an effect on the Child Behaviour Checklist and the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. The primary economic analysis showed better outcomes in the VIPP-SD group at 24 months, but also higher costs than the usual-care group (adjusted mean difference £1450, 95% confidence interval £619 to £2281). No treatment- or trial-related adverse events were reported. The probability of VIPP-SD being cost-effective compared with usual care at the 24-month follow-up increased as willingness to pay for improvements on the Preschool Parental Account of Children's Symptoms increased, with VIPP-SD having the higher probability of being cost-effective at willingness-to-pay values above £800 per 1-point improvement on the Preschool Parental Account of Children's Symptoms. LIMITATIONS: The proportion of participants with graduate-level qualifications was higher than among the general public. CONCLUSIONS: VIPP-SD is effective in reducing behaviour problems in young children when delivered by health visiting teams. Most of the effect of VIPP-SD appears to be retained over 24 months. However, we can be less certain about its value for money. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN58327365. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 29. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Behaviour problems in young children are common and are linked to mental and physical health problems, and educational and social difficulties. An important factor that influences the development of behaviour problems is the quality of care that children receive from their caregivers. This study aimed to test if a six-session parenting programme [called Video-feedback Intervention to promote Positive Parenting and Sensitive Discipline (VIPP-SD)] reduced behaviour problems in children aged 1 or 2 years who were showing early signs of behaviour problems (e.g. restlessness, impulsivity, tantrums and aggression). VIPP-SD supports caregivers in responding to their child's communication and behaviour. A total of 300 families participated. All families continued to access usual health-care services (e.g. health visitors and general practitioners), but half of the families were randomly allocated to also receive the VIPP-SD programme. We visited all families when the study started, and at 5 and 24 months to see if the children whose families received VIPP-SD showed fewer behaviour problems. We measured the children's behaviour by completing interviews and questionnaires with their caregivers. We also analysed whether or not VIPP-SD was good value for money compared with existing services. We did this by comparing the cost of all of the standard health and community services that families accessed during their time in the study, taking account of the impact that VIPP-SD had on children's behaviour. The children in the VIPP-SD group had lower levels of behaviour problems following the programme than children whose parents did not receive the programme. On average, VIPP-SD children scored 2 points lower on the main measure of behaviour; an example difference would be tantrums being rated as mild rather than severe. By the 2-year visit, the VIPP-SD children continued to show lower levels of behaviour problems. It is less clear whether or not VIPP-SD is good value for money, as this depends on how much money policy-makers are willing to invest for reductions in behaviour problems. Overall, there is strong evidence that the VIPP-SD programme is effective in reducing behaviour problems in the short term. Most of this benefit appears to be maintained for the following 2 years. However, we are less certain about the long-term effect and the VIPP-SD's value for money.

A Brief Home-Based Parenting Intervention to Reduce Behavior Problems in Young Children: A Pragmatic Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Behavior problems are one of the most common mental health disorders in childhood and can undermine children's health, education, and employment outcomes into adulthood. There are few effective interventions for early childhood. Objective: To test the clinical effectiveness of a brief parenting intervention, the Video-feedback Intervention to promote Positive Parenting and Sensitive Discipline (VIPP-SD), in reducing behavior problems in children aged 12 to 36 months. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Healthy Start, Happy Start study was a 2-group, parallel-group, researcher-blind, multisite randomized clinical trial conducted via health visiting services in 6 National Health Service trusts in England. Baseline and 5-month follow-up data were collected between July 30, 2015, and April 27, 2018. Of 818 eligible families, 227 declined to participate, and 300 were randomized into the trial. Target participants were caregivers of children who scored in the top 20% for behavior problems on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Participants were randomly allocated on a 1:1 basis to receive either VIPP-SD (n = 151) or usual care (n = 149), stratified by site and number of participating caregivers. Analysis was performed on an intention-to-treat basis. Statistical analysis was performed from September 5, 2019, to January 17, 2020. Interventions: All families continued to access usual care. Families allocated to VIPP-SD were offered 6 home-based video-feedback sessions of 1 to 2 hours' duration every 2 weeks. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the score on an early childhood version of the Preschool Parental Account of Children's Symptoms, a semistructured interview of behavior symptoms, at 5 months after randomization. Secondary outcomes included caregiver-reported behavior problems on the Child Behavior Checklist and the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Results: Among 300 participating children (163 boys [54%]; mean [SD] age, 23.0 [6.7] months), primary outcome data were available for 140 of 151 VIPP-SD participants (93%) and 146 of 149 usual care participants (98%). There was a mean difference in the total Preschool Parental Account of Children's Symptoms score of 2.03 (95% CI, 0.06-4.01; P = .04; Cohen d = 0.20 [95% CI, 0.01-0.40]) between trial groups, with fewer behavior problems in the VIPP-SD group, particularly conduct symptoms (mean difference, 1.61 [95% CI, 0.44-2.78]; P = .007; d = 0.30 [95% CI, 0.08-0.51]). Other child behavior outcomes showed similar evidence favoring VIPP-SD. No treatment or trial-related adverse events were reported. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that VIPP-SD was effective in reducing symptoms of early behavior problems in young children when delivered in a routine health service context. Trial Registration: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN58327365.

Reflection on modern methods: Statistics education beyond 'significance': novel plain English interpretations to deepen understanding of statistics and to steer away from misinterpretations.

Concerns have been expressed over standards of statistical interpretation. Results with P <0.05 are often referred to as 'significant' which, in plain English, implies important. This leads some people directly into the misconception that this provides proof that associations are clinically relevant. There are calls for statistics educators to respond to these concerns. This article provides novel plain English interpretations that are designed to deepen understanding. Experience teaching postgraduates at Imperial College is discussed. A key issue with focusing on 'significance' is the common inappropriate practice of implying no association exists, simply because P >0.05. Referring to strengths of association in 'study participants' gives them gravitas, which may help to avoid this. This contrasts with the common practice of focusing on imprecision, by referring to the 'sample' and to 'point estimates'. Unlike formal statistical definitions, interpretations developed and presented here are rooted in the application of statistics. They are based on one set of study participants (not many random samples). Precision of strengths of association are based on using strengths in study participants to estimate strengths of association in the population (from which participants were selected by probability random sampling). Reference to 'compatibility with study data, dependent on statistical modelling assumptions' reminds us of the importance of data quality and modelling assumptions. A straightforward graph shows the relationship between P-values and test statistics. This figure and associated interpretations were developed to illuminate the continuous nature of P-values. This is designed to discourage focus on whether P <0.05, and encourage interpretation of exact P-values.

Prescribing trends of gabapentin, pregabalin, and oxycodone: a secondary analysis of primary care prescribing patterns in England.

BACKGROUND: The risk of iatrogenic harm from the use and misuse of prescription drugs such as gabapentin, pregabalin, and oxycodone is substantial. In recent years, deaths associated with these drugs in England have increased. AIM: To characterise general practice prescribing trends for gabapentin, pregabalin, and oxycodone - termed dependence forming medicines (DFM) - in England and describe potential drivers of unwarranted variation (that is, very high prescribing). DESIGN & SETTING: This study is a retrospective secondary analysis of open source, publicly available government data from various sources pertaining to primary care demographics and prescriptions. METHOD: This study used 5 consecutive years (April 2013-March 2018) of aggregate data to investigate longitudinal trends of prescribing and variation in prescribing trends at practice and clinical commissioning group (CCG) level. RESULTS: Annual prescriptions of gabapentin, pregabalin, and oxycodone increased each year over the period. Variation in prescribing trends was associated with GP practice deprivation quintile, where the most deprived GP practices prescribed 313% (P<0.001) and 238% (P<0.001) greater volumes of gabapentin and pregabalin per person respectively, than practices in the least deprived quintile. The highest prescribing CCGs of each of these drugs were predominantly in northern and eastern regions of England. CONCLUSION: Substantial increases in gabapentin, pregabalin, and oxycodone prescriptions are concerning and will increase iatrogenic harm from drug-related morbidity and mortality. More research is needed to understand the large variation in prescribing between general practices, and to develop and implement interventions to reduce unwarranted variation and increase the appropriateness of prescribing of these drugs.

An observational study to examine how cumulative impact zones influence alcohol availability from different types of licensed outlets in an inner London Borough.

OBJECTIVES: Cumulative impact zones (CIZs) are a widely implemented local policy intended to restrict alcohol availability in areas proliferated with licensed outlets. Limited previous research has questioned their effectiveness and suggested they may play a more nuanced role in shaping local alcohol environments. This study evaluates the association between CIZ implementation and the number of licence applications made, and the number issued, relative to a control region. DESIGN: A quantitative observational study. SETTING: The inner London Borough of Southwark, which currently enforces three CIZs. POPULATION: Licence applications received by Southwark Council's Licensing Authority between 1 April 2006 and 31 March 2017 (n=1254). INTERVENTIONS: CIZ implementation. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Five outlet types were categorised and evaluated: drinking establishments, eateries, takeaways, off sales and other outlets. Primary outcome measures were the number of applications received and the number of licences issued. These were analysed using Poisson regression of counts over time. RESULTS: Across all CIZs, implementation was associated with greater increases in the number of eateries in CIZ regions (incidence rate ratio (IRR)=1.58, 95% CI: 1.02-2.45, p=0.04) and number of takeaway venues (IRR=3.89, 95% CI: 1.32-11.49, p=0.01), relative to the control area. No discernible association was found for the remaining outlet types. Disaggregating by area indicated a 10-fold relative increase in the number of new eateries in Peckham CIZ (IRR=10.38, 95% CI: 1.39-77.66, p=0.02) and a fourfold relative increase in the number of newly licensed takeaways in Bankside CIZ (IRR=4.38, 95% CI: 1.20-15.91, p=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: CIZs may be useful as policy levers to shape local alcohol environments to support the licensing goals of specific geographical areas and diversify the night-time economy.

Sustained Socioeconomic Inequalities in Hospital Admissions for Cardiovascular Events Among People with Diabetes in England.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to determine changes in absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in hospital admissions for major cardiovascular causes among patients with diabetes in England. METHODS: We identified all patients with diabetes aged ≥45 years admitted to the hospital in England between 2004-2005 and 2014-2015 for acute myocardial infarction, stroke, percutaneous coronary intervention, or coronary artery bypass graft. We measured socioeconomic status using the Index of Multiple Deprivation. Diabetes-specific admission rates were calculated for each year by deprivation quintile. We assessed temporal changes using negative binomial regression models. RESULTS: Most admissions occurred among patients aged ≥65 years (71%) and men (63.3%). The number of admissions increased steadily from the least quintile to the most deprived quintile. Patients in the most deprived quintile had a 1.94-fold increased risk of acute myocardial infarction (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.79-2.10), 1.92-fold increased risk of stroke (95% CI, 1.78-2.07), 1.66-fold increased risk of coronary artery bypass graft (95% CI, 1.50-1.74), and 1.76-fold increased risk of percutaneous coronary intervention (95% CI, 1.64-1.89) compared with the least deprived group. Absolute differences in rates between the least and most deprived quintiles did not change significantly for acute myocardial infarction (P = .29) and were reduced for stroke, coronary artery bypass graft, and percutaneous coronary intervention (by 17.5, 15, and 11.8 per 100,000 patients with diabetes, respectively, P ≤ .01 for all). CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic inequalities persist in diabetes-related hospital admissions for major cardiovascular events in England. Besides improved risk stratification strategies that consider socioeconomically defined needs, wide-reaching population-based policy interventions are required to reduce inequalities in diabetes outcomes.

Natural immunity against capsular group X N. meningitidis following an outbreak in Togo, 2007.

BACKGROUND: Capsular group X N. meningitidis (MenX) has emerged as a cause of localized disease outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa, but the human immune response following exposure to MenX antigens is poorly described. We therefore assessed the natural immunity against MenX in individuals who were living in an area affected by a MenX outbreak during 2007 in Togo, West Africa. During 2009, 300 healthy individuals (100 aged 3-5 years, 100 aged 13-19 years and 100 aged 20-25 years) were included in the study, and serum responses were compared with sera from age-matched controls from the U.K. and Burkina Faso. METHODS: MenX serum bactericidal antibody (SBA) was measured using rabbit complement, and antibodies against MenX polysaccharide (XPS) and outer membrane vesicles (XOMVs) were quantified by ELISA. RESULTS: The proportion of Togolese individuals with an SBA titer of ≥8 against the MenX strain was 29% (95% confidence interval (CI) 18-41) among those aged 3-5 years, 34% (95% CI 9-60) among those aged 13-19 years and 32% (95% CI 24-40) among those aged 20-25 years. These were significantly higher than observed in the control populations from the U.K (range 13-16%) and Burkina Faso (range 2-6%). CONCLUSION: In Togolese individuals, the concentration of serum IgG against XPS was higher among the two older age groups as compared to the youngest age group. Antibody concentrations against MenX PS correlated significantly with SBA titers. This supports further development of a MenX PS based conjugate vaccine. Further studies are needed to verify the ability of MenX PS to induce SBA in humans.

Contract and ownership type of general practices and patient experience in England: multilevel analysis of a national cross-sectional survey.

Objective To examine associations between the contract and ownership type of general practices and patient experience in England. Design Multilevel linear regression analysis of a national cross-sectional patient survey (General Practice Patient Survey). Setting All general practices in England in 2013-2014 ( n = 8017). Participants 903,357 survey respondents aged 18 years or over and registered with a general practice for six months or more (34.3% of 2,631,209 questionnaires sent). Main outcome measures Patient reports of experience across five measures: frequency of consulting a preferred doctor; ability to get a convenient appointment; rating of doctor communication skills; ease of contacting the practice by telephone; and overall experience (measured on four- or five-level interval scales from 0 to 100). Models adjusted for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of respondents and general practice populations and a random intercept for each general practice. Results Most practices had a centrally negotiated contract with the UK government ('General Medical Services' 54.6%; 4337/7949). Few practices were limited companies with locally negotiated 'Alternative Provider Medical Services' contracts (1.2%; 98/7949); these practices provided worse overall experiences than General Medical Services practices (adjusted mean difference -3.04, 95% CI -4.15 to -1.94). Associations were consistent in direction across outcomes and largest in magnitude for frequency of consulting a preferred doctor (-12.78, 95% CI -15.17 to -10.39). Results were similar for practices owned by large organisations (defined as having ≥20 practices) which were uncommon (2.2%; 176/7949). Conclusions Patients registered to general practices owned by limited companies, including large organisations, reported worse experiences of their care than other patients in 2013-2014.

Paediatric lymphoedema: A retrospective chart review of 86 cases.

AIM: To define the clinical characteristics, investigations, management and outcomes of lymphoedema in a paediatric cohort. METHODS: A retrospective chart review of children with lymphoedema seen at two tertiary paediatric hospitals since 1998. Telephone interviews with parents were performed when information was missing. Information recorded included demographic data, features of diagnosis and clinical presentation, symptoms, complications and treatment. RESULTS: A total of 86 patients with lymphoedema were identified. Eighty cases (93%) were primary and six cases (7%) were secondary. Most were female (60%). Location of swelling was most commonly the lower limbs (94%). There were 13 cases (15%) of genital involvement. Swelling presented in the first 12 months of life in 60% of primary lymphoedema patients. Complications of lymphoedema occurred in 73% of patients. Lymphoscintigraphy was the most common investigation used (65%), followed by ultrasound (57%) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) (35%). Eight of the 48 (17%) lymphoscintigraphs produced a false negative result or were inconclusive with a correct diagnosis subsequently made clinically and using MRI. Average time to diagnosis was 9 months. Lymphoedema was managed with compression garments (99%), manual lymph drainage (97%) and multilayered bandaging (68%). Eight patients had an operative procedure as a part of management. CONCLUSIONS: Primary lymphoedema is more common than secondary lymphoedema in children. Onset tends to be during infancy for both males and females, and the lower limb is typically involved. Causes of secondary lymphoedema are diverse and rare. Diagnosis in children is often delayed but is possible based on history and physical examination alone and when further investigation is necessary MRI is effective.

Recommending Oral Probiotics to Reduce Winter Antibiotic Prescriptions in People With Asthma: A Pragmatic Randomized Controlled Trial.

PURPOSE: Evidence from studies mainly in children has shown that orally administered probiotics may prevent respiratory tract infections and associated antibiotic use. We evaluated whether advice to take daily probiotics can reduce antibiotic prescribing for winter respiratory tract infections in people with asthma. METHODS: We conducted a randomized controlled, parallel-group pragmatic study for participants aged 5 years and older with asthma in a UK primary care setting. The intervention was a postal leaflet with advice to take daily probiotics from October 2013 to March 2014, compared with a standard winter advice leaflet. Primary outcome was the proportion of participants prescribed antibiotics for respiratory tract infections. RESULTS: There were 1,302 participants randomly assigned to a control group (n = 650) or intervention group (n = 652). There was no significant difference in the primary outcome measure, with 27.7% receiving antibiotics in the intervention group and 26.9% receiving antibiotics in the control group (odds ratio = 1.04; 95% CI, 0.82-1.34). Uptake of probiotics was low, but outcomes were similar in those who accessed probiotics (adjusted odds ratio = 1.08; 95% CI, 0.69-1.69, compared with controls). We also found no evidence of an effect on respiratory tract infections or asthma exacerbations. CONCLUSIONS: In this pragmatic community-based trial in people with asthma, we found no evidence that advising use of winter probiotics reduces antibiotic prescribing.

The Association Between Chronic Pain and Cardiac Disease: A Cross-sectional Population Study.

OBJECTIVES: Chronic pain may increase the risk of cardiac disease, but the extent to which confounding variables account for this association has yet to be satisfactorily established. This study aims to examine the possibility of an independent association between these 2 variables. METHODS: We applied logistic regression analysis to data from 8596 adults surveyed in a population study of the health of the population of England. The association between cardiac disease (angina and/or myocardial infarction) and chronic pain (pain lasting >3 months) was explored, taking account of 10 potentially confounding variables including the regular use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. RESULTS: Participants reporting chronic pain (n=3023) were more likely to experience cardiac disease than those without pain: odds ratio (OR), 1.55; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.15-2.07. Subsets of participants fulfilling various criteria for high-intensity chronic pain demonstrated stronger associations with cardiac disease suggesting a "dose-response" element to the relationship: chronic widespread pain (OR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.42-7.68); higher-disability chronic pain (OR, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.71-3.23); and higher average chronic pain score (OR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.40-2.71). Adjustment for regular prescription of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs did not reduce the association of chronic pain with cardiac disease. DISCUSSION: Patients reporting chronic pain, in particular those most severely affected, may be at significantly increased risk of cardiac disease. Future studies should focus on determining whether reducing the impact of chronic pain can improve cardiac health.

A Metabolic Study of Huntington's Disease.

BACKGROUND: Huntington's disease patients have a number of peripheral manifestations suggestive of metabolic and endocrine abnormalities. We, therefore, investigated a number of metabolic factors in a 24-hour study of Huntington's disease gene carriers (premanifest and moderate stage II/III) and controls. METHODS: Control (n = 15), premanifest (n = 14) and stage II/III (n = 13) participants were studied with blood sampling over a 24-hour period. A battery of clinical tests including neurological rating and function scales were performed. Visceral and subcutaneous adipose distribution was measured using magnetic resonance imaging. We quantified fasting baseline concentrations of glucose, insulin, cholesterol, triglycerides, lipoprotein (a), fatty acids, amino acids, lactate and osteokines. Leptin and ghrelin were quantified in fasting samples and after a standardised meal. We assessed glucose, insulin, growth hormone and cortisol concentrations during a prolonged oral glucose tolerance test. RESULTS: We found no highly significant differences in carbohydrate, protein or lipid metabolism markers between healthy controls, premanifest and stage II/III Huntington's disease subjects. For some markers (osteoprotegerin, tyrosine, lysine, phenylalanine and arginine) there is a suggestion (p values between 0.02 and 0.05) that levels are higher in patients with premanifest HD, but not moderate HD. However, given the large number of statistical tests performed interpretation of these findings must be cautious. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to previous studies that showed altered levels of metabolic markers in patients with Huntington's disease, our study did not demonstrate convincing evidence of abnormalities in any of the markers examined. Our analyses were restricted to Huntington's disease patients not taking neuroleptics, anti-depressants or other medication affecting metabolic pathways. Even with the modest sample sizes studied, the lack of highly significant results, despite many being tested, suggests that the majority of these markers do not differ markedly by disease status.

Access to primary care and the route of emergency admission to hospital: retrospective analysis of national hospital administrative data.

BACKGROUND: The UK government is pursuing policies to improve primary care access, as many patients visit accident and emergency (A and E) departments after being unable to get suitable general practice appointments. Direct admission to hospital via a general practitioner (GP) averts A and E use, and may reduce total hospital costs. It could also enhance the continuity of information between GPs and hospital doctors, possibly improving healthcare outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether primary care access is associated with the route of emergency admission-via a GP versus via an A and E department. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of national administrative data from English hospitals for 2011-2012. Adults admitted in an emergency (unscheduled) for ≥1 night via a GP or an A and E department formed the study population. The measure of primary care access-the percentage of patients able to get a general practice appointment on their last attempt-was derived from a large, nationally representative patient survey. Multilevel logistic regression was used to estimate associations, adjusting for patient and admission characteristics. RESULTS: The analysis included 2 322 112 emergency admissions (81.9% via an A and E department). With a 5 unit increase in the percentage of patients able to get a general practice appointment on their last attempt, the adjusted odds of GP admission (vs A and E admission) was estimated to increase by 15% (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.17). The probability of GP admission if ≥95% of appointment attempts were successful in each general practice was estimated to be 19.6%. This probability reduced to 13.6% when <80% of appointment attempts were successful. This equates to 139 673 fewer GP admissions (456 232 vs 316 559) assuming no change in the total number of admissions. Associations were consistent in direction across geographical regions of England. CONCLUSIONS: Among hospital inpatients admitted as an emergency, patients registered to more accessible general practices were more likely to have been admitted via a GP (vs an A and E department). This furthers evidence suggesting that access to general practice is related to use of emergency hospital services in England. The relative merits of the two admission routes remain unclear.

A 24-Hour Study of the Hypothalamo-Pituitary Axes in Huntington's Disease.

BACKGROUND: Huntington's disease is an inherited neurodegenerative disorder characterised by motor, cognitive and psychiatric disturbances. Patients exhibit other symptoms including sleep and mood disturbances, muscle atrophy and weight loss which may be linked to hypothalamic pathology and dysfunction of hypothalamo-pituitary axes. METHODS: We studied neuroendocrine profiles of corticotropic, somatotropic and gonadotropic hypothalamo-pituitary axes hormones over a 24-hour period in controlled environment in 15 healthy controls, 14 premanifest and 13 stage II/III Huntington's disease subjects. We also quantified fasting levels of vasopressin, oestradiol, testosterone, dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate, thyroid stimulating hormone, free triiodothyronine, free total thyroxine, prolactin, adrenaline and noradrenaline. Somatotropic axis hormones, growth hormone releasing hormone, insulin-like growth factor-1 and insulin-like factor binding protein-3 were quantified at 06:00 (fasting), 15:00 and 23:00. A battery of clinical tests, including neurological rating and function scales were performed. RESULTS: 24-hour concentrations of adrenocorticotropic hormone, cortisol, luteinizing hormone and follicle-stimulating hormone did not differ significantly between the Huntington's disease group and controls. Daytime growth hormone secretion was similar in control and Huntington's disease subjects. Stage II/III Huntington's disease subjects had lower concentration of post-sleep growth hormone pulse and higher insulin-like growth factor-1:growth hormone ratio which did not reach significance. In Huntington's disease subjects, baseline levels of hypothalamo-pituitary axis hormones measured did not significantly differ from those of healthy controls. CONCLUSIONS: The relatively small subject group means that the study may not detect subtle perturbations in hormone concentrations. A targeted study of the somatotropic axis in larger cohorts may be warranted. However, the lack of significant results despite many variables being tested does imply that the majority of them do not differ substantially between HD and controls.

Development of a composite outcome score for a complex intervention - measuring the impact of Community Health Workers.

BACKGROUND: In health services research, composite scores to measure changes in health-seeking behaviour and uptake of services do not exist. We describe the rationale and analytical considerations for a composite primary outcome for primary care research. We simulate its use in a large hypothetical population and use it to calculate sample sizes. We apply it within the context of a proposed cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) of a Community Health Worker (CHW) intervention. METHODS: We define the outcome as the proportion of the services (immunizations, screening tests, stop-smoking clinics) received by household members, of those that they were eligible to receive. First, we simulated a population household structure (by age and sex), based on household composition data from the 2011 England and Wales census. The ratio of eligible to received services was calculated for each simulated household based on published eligibility criteria and service uptake rates, and was used to calculate sample size scenarios for a cluster RCT of a CHW intervention. We assume varying intervention percentage effects and varying levels of clustering. RESULTS: Assuming no disease risk factor clustering at the household level, 11.7% of households in the hypothetical population of 20,000 households were eligible for no services, 26.4% for 1, 20.7% for 2, 15.3% for 3 and 25.8% for 4 or more. To demonstrate a small CHW intervention percentage effect (10% improvement in uptake of services out of those who would not otherwise have taken them up, and additionally assuming intra-class correlation of 0.01 between households served by different CHWs), around 4,000 households would be needed in each of the intervention and control arms. This equates to 40 CHWs (each servicing 100 households) needed in the intervention arm. If the CHWs were more effective (20%), then only 170 households would be needed in each of the intervention and control arms. CONCLUSIONS: This is a useful first step towards a process-centred composite score of practical value in complex community-based interventions. Firstly, it is likely to result in increased statistical power compared with multiple outcomes. Second, it avoids over-emphasis of any single outcome from a complex intervention.

Tonsillectomy among children with low baseline acute throat infection consultation rates in UK general practices: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effectiveness of tonsillectomy in reducing acute throat infection (ATI) consultation rates over 6 years' follow-up among children with low baseline ATI consultation rates. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: UK general practices from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. PARTICIPANTS: Children aged 4-15 years with ≤3 ATI consultations during the 3 years prior to 2001 (baseline). 450 children who underwent tonsillectomy (tonsillectomy group) and 13 442 other children with an ATI consultation (comparison group) in 2001. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mean differences in ATI consultation rates over the first 3 years' and subsequent 3 years' follow-up compared with 3 years prior to 2001 (baseline); odds of ≥3 ATI consultations at the same time points. RESULTS: Among children in the tonsillectomy group, the 3-year mean ATI consultation rate decreased from 1.31 to 0.66 over the first 3 years' follow-up and further declined to 0.60 over the subsequent 3 years' follow-up period. Compared with children who had no operation, those who underwent tonsillectomy experienced a reduction in 3-year mean ATI consultations per child of 2.5 (95% CI 2.3 to 2.6, p<0.001) over the first 3 years' follow-up, but only 1.2 (95% CI 1.0 to 1.4, p<0.001) over the subsequent 3 years' follow-up compared with baseline, respectively. This equates to a mean reduction of 3.7 ATI consultations over a 6-year period and approximates to a mean annual reduction of 0.6 ATI consultations per child, per year, over 6 years' follow-up. Children who underwent tonsillectomy were also much less likely to experience ≥3 ATI consultations during the first 3 years' follow-up (adjusted OR=0.12, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.17) and the subsequent 3 years' follow-up (adjusted OR=0.24, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.41). CONCLUSIONS: Among children with low baseline ATI rates, there was a statistically significant reduction in ATI consultation rates over 6 years' follow-up. However, the relatively modest clinical benefit needs to be weighed against the potential risks and complications associated with surgery.

Use and abuse of statistics in tobacco industry-funded research on standardised packaging.

In this commentary we consider the validity of tobacco industry-funded research on the effects of standardised packaging in Australia. As the first country to introduce standardised packs, Australia is closely watched, and Philip Morris International has recently funded two studies into the impact of the measure on smoking prevalence. Both of these papers are flawed in conception as well as design but have nonetheless been widely publicised as cautionary tales against standardised pack legislation. Specifically, we focus on the low statistical significance of the analytical methods used and the assumption that standardised packaging should have an immediate large impact on smoking prevalence.