ABSTRACT
PIP: This study examines the relationship between modernization and fertility in Puerto Rico using data from the 1970 census on 75 municipios, and compares the findings with results of similar studies in 1950 and 1960. The technique of path analysis was used to test the inverse relationship between urbanization/industrialization and the dependent variable, fertility, through 3 intervening variables, income, education, and proportion of women in the labor force. All 5 independent variables were found to be inversely correlated with the dependent variable, statistically significant at the .001 level for all variables except industrialization. Path analysis indicates that 27% of the variation in fertility ratios are explained by industrialization, education, income, and women working. A comparison of individual correlations and path analysis results for the 3 census years of 1950, 1960, and 1970 indicates that since 1950 the inverse relationship of urbanization, industrialization, education, income, and women working with fertility has persisted. Urbanization has had no direct effect on the community's fertility level since 1960, its effects being distributed indirectly through other variables such as education, income, and women working. Industrialization, which did not have a direct influence on fertility in 1950, began showing increasing direct influence thereafter in addition to its indirect influence through income, education, and women working. Education has always been important. The negative effect of income decreased from 1950-60 and in 1970 its direct negative effect on fertility was no longer operating. The effect of women working has also declined over the 3 decades. An interesting finding is that the proposed model with urbanization, industrialization, education, income, and women working as indicators is significantly less able to explain variations in fertility in 1970 than in 1950.^ieng