Integrating socioeconomic and ecological data into restoration practice.

Driven by the United Nations Decade on Restoration and international funding initiatives, such as the Mangrove Breakthrough, investment in mangrove restoration is expected to increase. Yet, mangrove restoration efforts frequently fail, usually because of ad hoc site-selection processes that do not consider mangrove ecology and the socioeconomic context. Using decision analysis, we developed an approach that accounts for socioeconomic and ecological data to identify sites with the highest likelihood of mangrove restoration success. We applied our approach in the Biosphere Reserve Marismas Nacionales Nayarit, Mexico, an area that recently received funding for implementing mangrove restoration actions. We identified 468 potential restoration sites, assessed their restorability potential based on socioeconomic and ecological metrics, and ranked sites for implementation with spatial optimization. The metrics we used included favorable conditions for propagules to establish and survive under sea-level rise, provision of ecosystem services, and community dynamics. Sites that were selected based on socioeconomic or ecological metrics alone had lower likelihood of mangrove restoration success than sites that were selected based on integrated socioeconomic and ecological metrics. For example, selecting sites based on only socioeconomic metrics captured 16% of the maximum attainable value of functioning mangroves able to provide propagules to potential restoration sites, whereas selecting sites based on ecological and socioeconomic metrics captured 46% of functioning mangroves. Our approach was developed as part of a collaboration between nongovernmental organizations, local government, and academics under rapid delivery time lines given preexisting mangrove restoration implementation commitments. The systematic decision process we used integrated socioeconomic and ecological considerations even under short delivery deadlines, and our approach can be adapted to help mangrove restoration site-selection decisions elsewhere.

Integración de datos socioeconómicos y ecológicos en las prácticas de restauración Resumen Se espera que la inversión en la restauración de los manglares incremente debido a la Década de Restauración de las Naciones Unidad y las iniciativas internacionales de financiamiento, como The Mangrove Breakthrough. Sin embargo, los esfuerzos de restauración de manglares fallan con frecuencia, generalmente por los procesos de selección de sitios ad­hoc que no consideran la ecología del manglar y el contexto socioeconómico. Usamos el análisis de decisiones para desarrollar una estrategia que considera los datos socioeconómicos y ecológicos para identificar los sitios con mayor probabilidad de éxito de restauración. Aplicamos nuestra estrategia en la Reserva de la Biósfera Marismas Nacionales Nayarit, México, un área que recibió financiamiento reciente para la restauración del manglar. Identificamos 468 sitios potencialmente restaurables, evaluamos su potencial de restauración con base en medidas ecológicas y socioeconómicas y clasificamos los sitios para la implementación con la optimización espacial. Las medidas que usamos incluían las condiciones favorables para que los propágulos se establezcan y sobrevivan con el incremento en el nivel del mar, el suministro de servicios ambientales y las dinámicas de la comunidad. Los sitios seleccionados sólo con base en las medidas ecológicas o socioeconómicas tuvieron una menor probabilidad de éxito de restauración que los sitios que se seleccionaron con base en medidas socioeconómicas y ecológicas integradas. Por ejemplo, la selección de sitios con base sólo en las medidas socioeconómicas capturó el 16% del máximo valor alcanzable de manglares funcionales capaces de proporcionar propágulos a los sitios potenciales de restauración, mientras que la selección basada en medidas ecológicas y socioeconómicas capturó el 46% de los manglares funcionales. Desarrollamos nuestra estrategia como parte de una colaboración entre organizaciones no gubernamentales, el gobierno local y académicos sujetos a una fecha pronta de entrega debido a los compromisos preexistentes para la restauración de manglares. El proceso de decisión sistemática que usamos integró las consideraciones ecológicas y socioeconómicas incluso con plazos cortos de entrega. Nuestra estrategia puede adaptarse para apoyar en la selección de sitios de restauración de manglares en otros sitios.

Exposure of protected areas in Central America to extreme weather events.

Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Although 21st-century climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical and projected EWEs across the region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., intensity, duration, and frequency) of heat waves, cyclones, droughts, and rainfall and compared trends in PAs with trends in unprotected lands. From the early 21st century onward, exposure to EWEs increased across the region, and PAs were predicted to be more exposed to climate extremes than unprotected areas (as shown by autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for heat waves, which were projected to have a significantly higher average (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01) intensity and duration, and tropical cyclones, which affected PAs more severely in carbon-intensive scenarios. PAs were also predicted to be significantly less exposed to droughts and heavy rainfall than unprotected areas (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01). However, droughts that could threaten connectivity between PAs are increasingly common in this region. We estimated that approximately 65% of the study area will experience at least one drought episode that is more intense and longer lasting than previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight that new conservation strategies adapted to threats associated with EWEs need to be tailored and implemented promptly. Unless urgent action is taken, significant damage may be inflicted on the unique biodiversity of the region.

Ciclones, olas de calor, sequías y lluvias intensas son eventos comunes en Centroamérica y el Caribe, cuya frecuencia, intensidad y duración se espera aumente durante el siglo XXI a causa del cambio climático. Sin embargo, en la actualidad, se desconoce cuál será la incidencia de estos eventos meteorológicos extremos (EME) dentro de las áreas protegidas. En este estudio examinamos la exposición histórica y futura a los extremos climáticos y comparamos el grado de exposición dentro y fuera de las áreas protegidas de toda la región por medio de 32 métricas que describen distintas dimensiones (intensidad, duración y frecuencia) de las olas de calor, los ciclones, las sequías y las precipitaciones. Los resultados indican que a medida que aumente el número de EME, las áreas protegidas estarán más expuestas a los extremos climáticos que las áreas no protegidas. Esto es especialmente cierto en el caso de las olas de calor, que, según las proyecciones, tendrán una intensidad y una duración medias significativamente mayores, y de los ciclones tropicales, que afectarán más gravemente a las zonas protegidas en los escenarios intensivos en carbono. Nuestros resultados también indican que las zonas protegidas estarán significativamente menos expuestas a sequías o lluvias torrenciales que las zonas no protegidas. Sin embargo, las sequías que podrían amenazar la conectividad entre áreas protegidas son cada vez más frecuentes en esta región. Se estima que aproximadamente el 65% del área de estudio experimentará al menos un episodio de sequía más intenso y duradero que las sequías anteriores. En conjunto, nuestros resultados ponen de relieve la necesidad de diseñar y aplicar con prontitud nuevas estrategias de conservación adaptadas a las amenazas asociadas a los EWE. A menos que se tomen medidas urgentes, la biodiversidad única de la región podría sufrir daños considerables.

Strategic restoration planning for land birds in the Colorado River Delta, Mexico.

Ecological restoration is an essential strategy for mitigating the current biodiversity crisis, yet restoration actions are costly. We used systematic conservation planning principles to design an approach that prioritizes restoration sites for birds and tested it in a riparian forest restoration program in the Colorado River Delta. Restoration goals were to maximize the abundance and diversity of 15 priority birds with a variety of habitat preferences. We built abundance models for priority birds based on the current landscape, and predicted bird distributions and relative abundances under a scenario of complete riparian forest restoration throughout our study area. Then, we used Zonation conservation planning software to rank this restored landscape based on core areas for all priority birds. The locations with the highest ranks represented the highest priorities for restoration and were located throughout the river reach. We optimized how much of the available landscape to restore by simulating restoration of the top 10-90% of ranked sites in 10% intervals. We found that total diversity was maximized when 40% of the landscape was restored, and mean relative abundance was maximized when 80% of the landscape was restored. The results suggest that complete restoration is not optimal for this community of priority birds and restoration of approximately 60% of the landscape would provide a balance between maximum relative abundance and diversity. Subsequent planning efforts will combine our results with an assessment of restoration costs to provide further decision support for the restoration-siting process. Our approach can be applied to any landscape-scale restoration program to improve the return on investment of limited economic resources for restoration.

Jaguar conservation in the American continent: the role of protected landscape and human-impacted biomes

Introduction: Worldwide, expanding human activities continue to be a threat to many large-bodied species, including jaguars. As these activities continue, it is critical to understand how home range sizes will be impacted by human-modified landscapes. Objective: To evaluate the importance of protected and unprotected land on home-range size across their range. Methods: We used home range data from 117 jaguars in several habitat protection categories and human biome types. We used a Generalized Linear Mixed Model to test home range and spatial overlap with conservation categories and human biomes. Results: Most home-ranges were in Jaguar Conservation Units (62 %), followed by Protected Areas (21 %), Indigenous People's Lands (10 %) and Jaguar Movement Corridors (3 %), where 76 % of the jaguars lived inside one the first three conservation types. However, outside of conserved land, Rangeland, Cropland, Seminatural land and other human biomes were also important (24 % of the individuals). Jaguars in Rangeland, Cropland and Seminatural land had the largest home ranges. Conclusions: Although conservation land was dominant, human-impacted lands appear to play a considerable role in satisfying the spatial requirements of jaguars.

Introducción: A nivel mundial, la expansión de actividades humanas continúa teniendo un riesgo para muchas especies de cuerpo grande, tal como los jaguares. Conforme continúen estas actividades, es crucial entender el impacto de paisajes modificados sobre el tamaño de su territorio. Objetivo: Evaluar la importancia de terrenos protegidos y no protegidos sobre el tamaño de su territorio a lo largo de su rango. Métodos: Usamos datos de tamaño de los territorios de 117 jaguares en varias categorías de protección de hábitats y biomas humanos. Usamos un Modelo Mixto Lineal Generalizado para probar traslapes espaciales y de territorios con categorías de conservación y biomas humanos. Resultados: La mayoría de los territorios estaban en Unidades de Conservación de Jaguares (62 %), seguido por Áreas protegidas (21 %), Tierras de Pueblos Indígenas (10 %) y Corredores de Movimiento de Jaguares (3 %), en donde el 76 % de los jaguares vivían dentro de alguna de las primeras tres modalidades de conservación. Sin embargo, fuera de áreas protegidas, pastizales, tierras de cultivo, terrenos seminaturales y otros biomas humanos también fueron importantes (24 % de individuos). Jaguares en pastizales, tierras de cultivo, y terrenos seminaturales tuvieron territorios más grandes. Conclusiones: Aunque las áreas de conservación fueron dominantes, áreas con impacto humano parecieron jugar un rol considerable en satisfacer los requerimientos espaciales de los jaguares.

Unveiling demographic and mating strategies of Panthera onca in the Pantanal, Brazil.

We conducted the first long-term and large-scale study of demographic characteristics and reproductive behavior in a wild jaguar (Panthera onca) population. Data were collected through a combination of direct observations and camera trapping on a study area that operates both as a cattle ranch and ecotourism destination. Jaguars exhibited two birth peaks: April/May and October/November, that are the end and the beginning of the wet season in the Pantanal, respectively. The average litter size was 1.43 ± 0.65. Single cubs made up a total of 65.7% of the births, and we found a slight predominance of females (1.15:1 ratio) in litters. The mean age at independence was 17.6 ± 0.98 months, with sex-biased dispersal, with all males (n = 27) leaving the natal home range and 63.6% of females exhibiting philopatry. The interbirth intervals were 21.8 ± 3.2 months and the mean age at first parturition was 31.8 ± 4.2 months. Our results estimated a lifetime reproductive success for female jaguars of 8.13 cubs. Our observations also indicate that female jaguars can display mating behavior during cub rearing or pregnancy, representing 41.4% of the consorts and copulations recorded. We speculate that this behavior has evolved as a defense against infanticide and physical harm to the female. To our knowledge, this is the first time that such behavior is described for this species. All aggressive interactions between females involved the presence of cubs, following the offspring-defense hypothesis, that lead to territoriality among females in mammals, regardless of food availability. In the face of growing threats to this apex predator, this work unveils several aspects of its natural history, representing a baseline for comparison with future research and providing critical information for population viability analysis and conservation planning in the long term.

Este é o primeiro estudo de longo prazo e em grande escala de características demográficas e de comportamento reprodutivo em uma população selvagem de onças-pintadas (Panthera onca). Os dados foram coletados por meio de uma combinação de observações diretas e armadilhamentos fotográficos em uma área de estudo que atua tanto como fazenda de pecuária quanto como destino ecoturístico. As onças-pintadas apresentaram dois picos de nascimento: abril/maio e outubro/novembro, que são o final e o início da estação chuvosa no Pantanal, respectivamente. O tamanho médio da ninhada foi 1.43 ± 0.65. Filhotes únicos representaram um total de 65.7% dos nascimentos, e encontramos uma ligeira predominância de fêmeas (proporção 1.15:1) nas ninhadas. A idade média de independência foi de 17.6 ± 0.98 meses, com uma dispersão sexo-assimétrica, com todos os machos (n = 27) deixando a área natal e 63.6% das fêmeas apresentando filopatria. O intervalo entre ninhadas foi de 21.8 ± 3.2 meses e a idade média da primeira cria foi de 31.8 ± 4.2 meses. Nossos resultados estimaram um sucesso reprodutivo médio ao longo da vida para onças-pintadas fêmeas de 8.13 filhotes. Nossas observações também indicam que as onças-pintadas fêmeas podem apresentar comportamento de acasalamento durante a criação dos filhotes ou da gestação, representando 41.4% das cortes e cópulas registradas. Especulamos que esse comportamento tenha evoluído como uma defesa contra infanticídio e danos físicos à fêmea. Segundo nosso conhecimento, está é a primeira vez que tal comportamento é descrito para esta espécie. Todas as interações agressivas entre fêmeas envolveram a presença de filhotes, seguindo a hipótese de defesa da prole, que levam à territorialidade entre fêmeas em mamíferos, independentemente da disponibilidade de alimento. Diante das crescentes ameaças a este predador de topo, este trabalho revela vários aspectos de sua história natural, representando uma base de comparação com pesquisas futuras e fornecendo informações críticas para a análise de viabilidade populacional e planejamento de conservação em longo prazo.

Spatial relationships between fishes and amphibians: implications for conservation planning in a Neotropical Hotspot.

Species distribution patterns are widely used to guide conservation planning and are a central issue in ecology. The usefulness of spatial correlation analysis has been highlighted in several ecological applications so far. However, spatial assumptions in ecology are highly scale-dependent, in which geographical relationships between species diversity and distributions can have different conservation concerns. Here, an integrative landscape planning was designed to show the spatial distribution patterns of taxonomic and functional diversity of amphibians and fishes, from multiple species traits regarding morphology, life history, and behavior. We used spatial, morphological, and ecological data of amphibians and fishes to calculate the functional diversity and the spatial correlation of species. Mapping results show that the higher taxonomic and functional diversity of fishes is concentrated in the West Atlantic Forest. Considering amphibians, are located in the East portion of the biome. The spatial correlation of species indicates the regions of the Serra do Mar and the extreme southern part of the Central Corridor as the main overlapped species distribution areas between both groups. New key conservation sites were reported within the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot, revealing cross-taxon mismatches between terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. This study offers useful spatial information integrating suitable habitats of fishes and amphibians to complement existing and future research based on terrestrial and freshwater conservation. New priorities for biodiversity conservation in rich-species regions highlight the importance of spatial pattern analysis to support land-use planning in a macroecological context.

Multi-objective forest restoration planning in Costa Rica: Balancing landscape connectivity and ecosystem service provisioning with sustainable development.

Degradation, fragmentation, and loss of tropical forests has exponentially increased in the last decades leading to unprecedented rates of species extinctions and loss of ecosystems functions and services. Forest restoration is key to recover ecosystems health and achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals. However, restoring forests at the landscape scale presents many challenges, since it requires balancing conservation goals and economic development. In this study, we used a spatial planning tool (Marxan) to identify priority areas for restoration satisfying multiple objectives across a biological corridor in Costa Rica. Biological corridors are critical conservation instruments promoting forest connectivity while acknowledging human presence. Increasing forest connectivity requires restoration initiatives that will likely conflict with other land uses, some of them of high national economic importance. Our restoration plan sought to maximize the provision of forest-related services (i.e., seed dispersal, tourism and carbon storage) while minimizing the impact on current land uses and thus avoiding potential conflicts. We quantified seed dispersal and tourism services (birdwatching potential) using species distribution models. We used the carbon sequestration model of InVEST to quantify carbon storage potential. We tested different restoration scenarios that differed in whether land opportunity costs of current uses were considered or not when identifying potential restoration areas, or how these costs were estimated. We showed how a landscape-scale forest restoration plan accounting for only forest connectivity and ecosystem service provision capacity can greatly differ from a plan that considers the potential impacts on local livelihoods. Spatial planning tools can assist at designing cost-effective landscape-scale forest restoration plans, identifying priority areas where forest restoration can maximize ecosystem provision and increase forest connectivity. Special care must be paid to the use of adequate estimates of opportunity cost, to avoid potential conflicts between restoration goals and other legitimate land uses.

Resource users as land-sea links in coastal and marine socioecological systems.

Coastal zones, which connect terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, are among the most resource-rich regions globally and home to nearly 40% of the global human population. Because human land-based activities can alter natural processes in ways that affect adjacent aquatic ecosystems, land-sea interactions are increasingly recognized as critical to coastal conservation planning and governance. However, the complex socioeconomic dynamics inherent in coastal and marine socioecological systems (SESs) have received little consideration. Drawing on knowledge generalized from long-term studies in Caribbean Nicaragua, we devised a conceptual framework that clarifies the multiple ways socioeconomically driven behavior can link the land and sea. In addition to other ecosystem effects, the framework illustrates how feedbacks resulting from changes to aquatic resources can influence terrestrial resource management decisions and land uses. We assessed the framework by applying it to empirical studies from a variety of coastal SESs. The results suggest its broad applicability and highlighted the paucity of research that explicitly investigates the effects of human behavior on coastal SES dynamics. We encourage researchers and policy makers to consider direct, indirect, and bidirectional cross-ecosystem links that move beyond traditionally recognized land-to-sea processes.

Los Usuarios de Recursos como Conexiones entre la Tierra y el Mar dentro de los Sistemas Socioecológicos Marinos y Costeros Resumen Las zonas costeras, que conectan los ecosistemas terrestres y acuáticos, se encuentran entre las regiones más ricas en recursos a nivel mundial y además albergan a casi el 40% de la población humana de todo el mundo. Ya que las actividades humanas terrestres pueden alterar los procesos naturales de manera que terminan por afectar a los ecosistemas acuáticos adyacentes, cada vez se reconoce más a las interacciones tierra-mar como críticas para la planeación de la conservación y la gestión costera. Sin embargo, las complejas dinámicas socioeconómicas inherentes a los sistemas socioecológicos (SES) marinos y costeros han recibido poca atención. Con el conocimiento generalizado a partir de los estudios a largo plazo realizados en el Caribe de Nicaragua como punto de partida, diseñamos un marco conceptual que clarifica las múltiples formas en las que el comportamiento con origen socioeconómico puede conectar a la tierra y al mar. Sumado a otros efectos de los ecosistemas, el marco conceptual ilustró cómo los comentarios resultantes de los cambios ocurridos en los recursos acuáticos pueden influir sobre las decisiones de manejo de recursos terrestres y de uso de suelo. Evaluamos el marco conceptual mediante su aplicación a los estudios empíricos de una variedad de SES costeros. Los resultados sugirieron su aplicabilidad generalizada y resaltaron la escasez de investigaciones busquen específicamente los efectos del comportamiento humano sobre las dinámicas de los SES costeros. Alentamos a los investigadores y a los formuladores de políticas a considerar las conexiones directas, indirectas y bidireccionales entre ecosistemas que van más allá de los procesos de tierra a mar reconocidos tradicionalmente.

Deficiencias en la categorización y necesidades de investigación en especies amenazadas: un análisis de los vertebrados y plantas del departamento de Loreto, Perú / Categorization deficiencies and research needs in threatened species: An analysis of the vertebrates and plants of the department of Loreto, Peru

Resumen Para tomar decisiones en conservación o manejo de especies silvestres es prioritario conocer su estado de conservación, siendo el método de la IUCN el más utilizado para categorizar especies según su nivel de amenaza, tanto a nivel global como a nivel nacional. En este artículo realizamos un análisis de las especies de plantas y vertebrados amenazadas y de aquellas con datos insuficientes del departamento de Loreto, el más grande y uno de los más biodiversos del Perú, con el fin de identificar las principales amenazas que soportan, identificar los vacíos de información y comparar la congruencia entre la lista nacional y la global. Uniendo ambas listas, en Loreto se ha registrado 226 especies consideradas amenazadas. Existen grandes diferencias entre la lista nacional y la global, principalmente para plantas y peces. La principal amenaza registrada es la pérdida de hábitat, que afecta a la mayor parte de las especies de vertebrados terrestres amenazados. Existen grandes vacíos de información sobre tamaño y tendencia poblacional en todos los grupos taxonómicos, y de distribución en las plantas amenazadas. Entre las especies con datos insuficientes, los vacíos principales se dan en los aspectos de distribución y población, pero también en amenazas, ecología y taxonomía. Nuestros resultados resaltan la necesidad de actualizar la lista de plantas amenazadas del Perú, así como crear una lista de peces amenazados y realizar investigación sobre distribución, población, amenazas y taxonomía de las especies con datos insuficientes y de las especies amenazadas con vacíos de información.

Abstract In order to make decisions on the conservation or management of wild species, it is a priority to know their conservation status. For this purpose, the most widely used method is IUCN's categorization of species according to the level of threat they face, both globally and nationally. In this article we conducted an analysis of threatened plant and vertebrate species, and of data deficient species in the department of Loreto, the largest and one of the most biodiverse in Peru, to identify the main threats they face, identify information gaps, and compare the national and global lists. According to both lists combined, 226 species considered threatened have been recorded in Loreto. Large differences exist between the national and global lists, mainly for plants and fish. The main threat recorded is habitat loss, which affects most of the threatened terrestrial vertebrate species. Large gaps persist in information on population size and trends for all taxonomic groups, and on distribution for threatened plants. Among the data deficient species, the main gaps are in distribution and population aspects, but also in threats, ecology, and taxonomy. Our results highlight the need to update the list of threatened plants of Peru, as well as to create a list of threatened fish species and to conduct research on the distribution, population, threats, and taxonomy of species with deficient data and threatened species with information gaps.

Improving the management effectiveness and decision-making by stakeholders' perspectives: A case study in a protected area from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.

Assessing management effectiveness in protected areas is a fundamental instrument to achieve socio-biodiversity protection goals. This study aimed to analyze the management effectiveness of Cunhambebe State Park (from now on, "PEC") in the State of Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, from the perception of stakeholders and the multi-temporal analysis of land use and land cover between 1998 and 2018. We used the Rapid Assessment and Prioritization of Protected Area Management method for a participatory approach. Seventy-two indicators were used and applied to assess the perception of stakeholders related to the Advisory Council. The management effectiveness of PEC was classified as moderately satisfactory (63.41%). Indicators of "Legal security", "Vulnerability", "Site design and planning" and "Financial resources" revealed the weaknesses and threats of management and what should be the priority projects for better effectiveness. Through the multi-temporal analysis, we identified that the advances of pasture and urban areas are the highest pressures and threats, as perceived by stakeholders. In our case study, we provide evidence of actions that must be performed by the PEC management team. These actions must consider the weaknesses and threats presented by the SWOT analysis. Finally, we recommend some political and management measures: 1) Financial resources for the land regularization of areas overlapping with PEC, 2) Guidelines about PEC areas must be included in the Master Plans of municipalities that cover PEC limits, 3) Technical assistance to improve land management, and 4) Strengthen environmental education initiatives at all school levels.

A genoscape-network model for conservation prioritization in a migratory bird.

Migratory animals are declining worldwide and coordinated conservation efforts are needed to reverse current trends. We devised a novel genoscape-network model that combines genetic analyses with species distribution modeling and demographic data to overcome challenges with conceptualizing alternative risk factors in migratory species across their full annual cycle. We applied our method to the long distance, Neotropical migratory bird, Wilson's Warbler (Cardellina pusilla). Despite a lack of data from some wintering locations, we demonstrated how the results can be used to help prioritize conservation of breeding and wintering areas. For example, we showed that when genetic, demographic, and network modeling results were considered together it became clear that conservation recommendations will differ depending on whether the goal is to preserve unique genetic lineages or the largest number of birds per unit area. More specifically, if preservation of genetic lineages is the goal, then limited resources should be focused on preserving habitat in the California Sierra, Basin Rockies, or Coastal California, where the 3 most vulnerable genetic lineages breed, or in western Mexico, where 2 of the 3 most vulnerable lineages overwinter. Alternatively, if preservation of the largest number of individuals per unit area is the goal, then limited conservation dollars should be placed in the Pacific Northwest or Central America, where densities are estimated to be the highest. Overall, our results demonstrated the utility of adopting a genetically based network model for integrating multiple types of data across vast geographic scales and better inform conservation decision-making for migratory animals.

Un Modelo de Redes de Panorama Poblacional para la Priorización de la Conservación de un Ave Migratoria Resumen Los animales migratorios están pasando por una declinación mundial y se requieren esfuerzos coordinados de conservación para revertir las tendencias actuales. Diseñamos un modelo novedoso de redes de panorama poblacional que combina el análisis genético con el modelado de la distribución de especies y los datos demográficos para sobreponerse a los obstáculos con la conceptualización de los factores alternativos de riesgo en las especies migratorias durante su ciclo anual completo. Aplicamos nuestro método al chipe de corona negra (Cardellina pusilla), un ave migratoria neotropical que recorre largas distancias. A pesar de la falta de datos de algunas localidades de invernación, mostramos cómo pueden usarse los resultados para ayudar a priorizar la conservación de las áreas de reproducción y de invernación. Por ejemplo, mostramos que cuando se consideraron en conjunto los resultados del modelado genético, demográfico y de redes queda claro que las recomendaciones de conservación diferirán dependiendo de si el objetivo es preservar linajes genéticos únicos o el mayor número de aves por unidad de área. Más específicamente, si el objetivo es la conservación de los linajes genéticos, entonces los recursos limitados deberían enfocarse en preservar el hábitat en la Sierra de California, la Cuenca de las Rocallosas, la costa de California (lugares en donde se reproducen los tres linajes genéticos más vulnerables) o en el oeste de México (en donde dos de los tres linajes más vulnerables pasan el invierno). Alternativamente, si el objetivo es la conservación del mayor número de individuos por unidad de área, entonces el financiamiento limitado debería aplicarse en el noroeste del Pacífico o en América Central, en donde se estima que las densidades poblacionales son las más altas. En general, nuestros resultados demostraron la utilidad de adoptar un modelo de redes basadas en la genética para la integración de datos a lo largo de escalas geográficas amplias y para informar de mejor manera la toma de decisiones de conservación para los animales migratorios.

Priority areas for conservation of and research focused on terrestrial vertebrates.

Effective conservation policies require comprehensive knowledge of biodiversity. However, knowledge shortfalls still remain, hindering possibilities to improve decision making and built such policies. During the last 2 decades, conservationists have made great efforts to allocate resources as efficiently as possible but have rarely considered the idea that if research investments are also strategically allocated, it would likely fill knowledge gaps while simultaneously improving conservation actions. Therefore, prioritizing areas where both conservation and research actions could be conducted becomes a critical endeavor that can further maximize return on investment. We used Zonation, a conservation planning tool and geographical distributions of amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles to suggest and compare priority areas for conservation and research of terrestrial vertebrates worldwide. We also evaluated the degree of human disturbance in both types of priority areas by describing the value of the human footprint index within such areas. The spatial concordance between priority conservation and research areas was low: 0.36% of the world's land area. In these areas, we found it would be possible to protect almost half of the currently threatened species and to gather information on nearly 42% of data-deficient (DD) species. We also found that 6199 protected areas worldwide are located in such places, although only 35% of them have strict conservation purposes. Areas of consensus between conservation and research areas represent an opportunity for simultaneously conserving and acquiring knowledge of threatened and DD species of vertebrates. Although the picture is not the most encouraging, joint conservation and research efforts are possible and should be fostered to save vertebrate species from our own ignorance and extinction.

Áreas Prioritarias para la Conservación e Investigación Enfocadas en Vertebrados Terrestres Resumen Las políticas efectivas de conservación requieren del conocimiento integral de la biodiversidad. Sin embargo, la deficiencia de conocimiento todavía obstaculiza las posibilidades de mejorar la toma de decisiones y construir dichas políticas. Durante las últimas dos décadas, los conservacionistas han realizado un gran esfuerzo por asignar los recursos de la manera más eficiente posible, pero en pocas ocasiones han considerado la idea de que, si las inversiones para la investigación también se asignan estratégicamente, probablemente llenarían los vacíos de conocimiento a la vez que mejoran las acciones de conservación. Por lo tanto, la priorización de las áreas en donde podrían realizarse acciones de conservación y de investigación se convierte en un esfuerzo importante que puede avanzar todavía más la maximización del rendimiento de la inversión. Usamos Zonation, una herramienta de planeación de la conservación, junto con las distribuciones geográficas de anfibios, aves, mamíferos y reptiles para sugerir y comparar las áreas prioritarias para la conservación e investigación de los vertebrados terrestres en todo el mundo. También evaluamos el grado de perturbación humana en ambos tipos de áreas prioritarias mediante la descripción del valor del índice de la huella ecológica humana dentro de dichas áreas. La concordancia espacial entre las áreas prioritarias para la conservación y para la investigación fue baja: 0.36% del área total de suelo mundial. Encontramos que en estas áreas sería posible proteger a casi la mitad de las especies que se encuentran actualmente amenazadas, así como recopilar información sobre casi el 42% de las especies cuya información es deficiente. También descubrimos que 6199 áreas protegidas a nivel mundial están localizadas en dichos lugares, aunque sólo el 35% de ellas tiene propósitos estrictos de conservación. Las áreas de consenso entre la conservación y la investigación representan una oportunidad para simultáneamente conservar y adquirir conocimiento sobre las especies amenazadas de vertebrados y cuya información es deficiente. Aunque el futuro no es alentador, los esfuerzos conjuntos de conservación e investigación son posibles y deberían fomentarse para salvar a las especies de vertebrados de nuestra propia ignorancia y extinción.

Mapping tree species vulnerability to multiple threats as a guide to restoration and conservation of tropical dry forests.

Understanding the vulnerability of tree species to anthropogenic threats is important for the efficient planning of restoration and conservation efforts. We quantified and compared the effects of future climate change and four current threats (fire, habitat conversion, overgrazing and overexploitation) on the 50 most common tree species of the tropical dry forests of northwestern Peru and southern Ecuador. We used an ensemble modelling approach to predict species distribution ranges, employed freely accessible spatial datasets to map threat exposures, and developed a trait-based scoring approach to estimate species-specific sensitivities, using differentiated trait weights in accordance with their expected importance in determining species sensitivities to specific threats. Species-specific vulnerability maps were constructed from the product of the exposure maps and the sensitivity estimates. We found that all 50 species face considerable threats, with an average of 46% of species' distribution ranges displaying high or very high vulnerability to at least one of the five threats. Our results suggest that current levels of habitat conversion, overexploitation and overgrazing pose larger threats to most of the studied species than climate change. We present a spatially explicit planning strategy for species-specific restoration and conservation actions, proposing management interventions to focus on (a) in situ conservation of tree populations and seed collection for tree planting activities in areas with low vulnerability to climate change and current threats; (b) ex situ conservation or translocation of populations in areas with high climate change vulnerability; and (c) active planting or assisted regeneration in areas under high current threat vulnerability but low climate change vulnerability, provided that interventions are in place to lower threat pressure. We provide an online, user-friendly tool to visualize both the vulnerability maps and the maps indicating priority restoration and conservation actions.

Validating anthropogenic threat maps as a tool for assessing river ecological integrity in Andean-Amazon basins.

Anthropogenic threat maps are commonly used as a surrogate for the ecological integrity of rivers in freshwater conservation, but a clearer understanding of their relationships is required to develop proper management plans at large scales. Here, we developed and validated empirical models that link the ecological integrity of rivers to threat maps in a large, heterogeneous and biodiverse Andean-Amazon watershed. Through fieldwork, we recorded data on aquatic invertebrate community composition, habitat quality, and physical-chemical parameters to calculate the ecological integrity of 140 streams/rivers across the basin. Simultaneously, we generated maps that describe the location, extent, and magnitude of impact of nine anthropogenic threats to freshwater systems in the basin. Through seven-fold cross-validation procedure, we found that regression models based on anthropogenic threats alone have limited power for predicting the ecological integrity of rivers. However, the prediction accuracy improved when environmental predictors (slope and elevation) were included, and more so when the predictions were carried out at a coarser scale, such as microbasins. Moreover, anthropogenic threats that amplify the incidence of other pressures (roads, human settlements and oil activities) are the most relevant predictors of ecological integrity. We concluded that threat maps can offer an overall picture of the ecological integrity pattern of the basin, becoming a useful tool for broad-scale conservation planning for freshwater ecosystems. While it is always advisable to have finer scale in situ measurements of ecological integrity, our study shows that threat maps provide fast and cost-effective results, which so often are needed for pressing management and conservation actions.

Climate change and conservation in a warm North American desert: effect in shrubby plants.

BACKGROUND: Deserts are biologically rich habitats with a vast array of animals and plants adapted to xeric conditions, and most deserts are among the planet's last remaining areas of total wilderness. Among North American deserts, the Chihuahuan Desert has the highest levels of diversity and endemism. To understand the effect of future climate change on plants distributed in this arid land and propose effective conservation planning, we focused on five endemic shrubby species that characterize the Chihuahuan Desert and used an integrative approach. METHODS: Ecological niche-based modeling, spatial genetics and ecological resistance analyses were carried out to identify the effect of global warming on the studied five shrubby species. Key areas that need to be preserved were identified taking into account the existing protected areas within the Chihuahuan Desert. RESULTS: The extent of future distribution will vary among these species, and on average expansion will occur in the western part of the Chihuahuan Desert. For most species low environmental resistance to gene flow was predicted, while higher future resistance was predicted for one species that would lead to increased population isolation. The highest haplotype diversity was identified in three hotspots. Based on future suitability of habitat and in the haplotype diversity we suggest preserving two hotspots of genetic diversity in the Sierra Madre Oriental, located in areas without protection. The third hotspot was detected in the well preserved Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Man and Biosphere Reserve. CONCLUSION: Global climate change will have an effect in arid adapted plants, favoring expansion in the western of the Chihuahuan Desert however negatively affecting others with high ecological resistance disrupting gene flow. Two hotspots of genetic diversity in the Sierra Madre Oriental should be protected.

Conservation gaps and priorities in the Tropical Andes biodiversity hotspot: Implications for the expansion of protected areas.

The Tropical Andes (TA) contain some of the most important and threatened areas for biodiversity conservation on earth. Despite the proportion of protected areas (PAs) that currently cover the TA, it is unknown if these areas are adequately protecting the biodiversity throughout the region and where the expansion of PAs is most needed to preserve biodiversity in the future. Here, we examine the conservation status of 1743 vertebrate species endemic to the TA (including mammals, birds, amphibians and reptiles), for which conservation actions should be prioritized within the region itself. Using species' geographical range maps, refined by their known elevational and habitat requirements, we carry out a gap analysis to examine to what degree endemic vertebrate species in the TA are represented by PAs. Then, using the irreplaceability-vulnerability framework, we localize first and second priority areas for conservation action, where important ecological features are subjected to severe anthropogenic disturbance. Our results show that 72% of all species and 90% of all threatened species are insufficiently covered by PAs. Furthermore, 73% of the first priority sites and 84% of the second priority sites are not covered by current PAs. These areas are predominantly located in the surroundings of major population centers in Ecuador and Colombia. To prevent species from extinction in the near future, actions to conserve their remaining habitat in prioritized areas are urgently required.

Planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible: the case of Atlantic Forest endemic birds.

BACKGROUND: A key strategy in biodiversity conservation is the establishment of protected areas. In the future, however, the redistribution of species in response to ongoing climate change is likely to affect species' representativeness in those areas. Here we quantify the effectiveness of planning protected areas network to represent 151 birds endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot, under current and future climate change conditions for 2050. METHODS: We combined environmental niche modeling and systematic conservation planning using both a county and a regional level planning strategy. We recognized the conflict between biodiversity conservation and economic development, including socio-economic targets (as opposed to biological only) and using planning units that are meaningful for policy-makers. RESULTS: We estimated an average contraction of 29,500 km2 in environmentally suitable areas for birds, representing 52% of currently suitable areas. Still, the most cost-effective solution represented almost all target species, requiring only ca. 10% of the Atlantic Forest counties to achieve that representativeness, independent of strategy. More than 50% of these counties were selected both in the current and future planned networks, representing >83% of the species. DISCUSSION: Our results indicate that: (i) planning protected areas network currently can be useful to represent species under climate change; (ii) the overlapped planning units in the best solution for both current and future conditions can be considered as "no regret" areas; (iii) priority counties are spread throughout the biome, providing specific guidance wherever the possibility of creating protected area arises; and (iv) decisions can occur at different administrative spheres (Federal, State or County) as we found quite similar numerical solutions using either county or regional level strategies.

Achilles heel of a powerful invader: restrictions on distribution and disappearance of feral pigs from a protected area in Northern Pantanal, Western Brazil.

This paper focuses on a rare case of natural disappearance of feral pigs (Sus scrofa) in an extensive area without using traditional methods of eradication programs. The study was conducted both in the Private Reserve of Natural Heritage (PRNH) Sesc Pantanal and in an adjacent traditional private cattle ranch. In 1998, feral pigs were abundant and widely distributed in the PRNH. However, the feral pigs gradually disappeared from the area and currently, the absence of pigs in the PRNH contrasts with the adjacent cattle ranch where the species is abundant. To understand the current distribution of the species in the region we partitioned the effects of variation of feral pigs' presence considering the habitat structure (local), landscape composition and the occurrence of potential predators. Additionally, we modeled the distributions of the species in Northern Pantanal, projecting into the past using the classes of vegetation cover before the PRNH implementation (year 1988). Our results show areas with more suitability for feral pigs in regions where the landscape is dominated by pastures and permeated by patches of Seasonal Dry Forest. The species tends to avoid predominantly forested areas. Additionally, we recorded that the environmental suitability decreases exponentially as the distance from water bodies increases. The disappearance of feral pigs in the PRNH area seems to be associated with changes in the landscape and vegetation structure after the removal of the cattle. In the Brazilian Pantanal, the feral pigs' occurrence seems strongly conditioned to environmental changes associated to livestock activity.

A habitat-based approach to predict impacts of marine protected areas on fishers.

Although marine protected areas can simultaneously contribute to biodiversity conservation and fisheries management, the global network is biased toward particular ecosystem types because they have been established primarily in an ad hoc fashion. The optimization of trade-offs between biodiversity benefits and socioeconomic values increases success of protected areas and minimizes enforcement costs in the long run, but it is often neglected in marine spatial planning (MSP). Although the acquisition of spatially explicit socioeconomic data is perceived as a costly or secondary step in MSP, it is critical to account for lost opportunities by people whose activities will be restricted, especially fishers. We developed an easily reproduced habitat-based approach to estimate the spatial distribution of opportunity cost to fishers in data-poor regions. We assumed the most accessible areas have higher economic and conservation values than less accessible areas and their designation as no-take zones represents a loss of fishing opportunities. We estimated potential distribution of fishing resources from bathymetric ranges and benthic habitat distribution and the relative importance of the different resources for each port of total catches, revenues, and stakeholder perception. In our model, we combined different cost layers to produce a comprehensive cost layer so that we could evaluate of trade-offs. Our approach directly supports conservation planning, can be applied generally, and is expected to facilitate stakeholder input and community acceptance of conservation.

Ordinary kriging vs inverse distance weighting: spatial interpolation of the sessile community of Madagascar reef, Gulf of Mexico.

Information about the distribution and abundance of the habitat-forming sessile organisms in marine ecosystems is of great importance for conservation and natural resource managers. Spatial interpolation methodologies can be useful to generate this information from in situ sampling points, especially in circumstances where remote sensing methodologies cannot be applied due to small-scale spatial variability of the natural communities and low light penetration in the water column. Interpolation methods are widely used in environmental sciences; however, published studies using these methodologies in coral reef science are scarce. We compared the accuracy of the two most commonly used interpolation methods in all disciplines, inverse distance weighting (IDW) and ordinary kriging (OK), to predict the distribution and abundance of hard corals, octocorals, macroalgae, sponges and zoantharians and identify hotspots of these habitat-forming organisms using data sampled at three different spatial scales (5, 10 and 20 m) in Madagascar reef, Gulf of Mexico. The deeper sandy environments of the leeward and windward regions of Madagascar reef were dominated by macroalgae and seconded by octocorals. However, the shallow rocky environments of the reef crest had the highest richness of habitat-forming groups of organisms; here, we registered high abundances of octocorals and macroalgae, with sponges, Millepora alcicornis and zoantharians dominating in some patches, creating high levels of habitat heterogeneity. IDW and OK generated similar maps of distribution for all the taxa; however, cross-validation tests showed that IDW outperformed OK in the prediction of their abundances. When the sampling distance was at 20 m, both interpolation techniques performed poorly, but as the sampling was done at shorter distances prediction accuracies increased, especially for IDW. OK had higher mean prediction errors and failed to correctly interpolate the highest abundance values measured in situ, except for macroalgae, whereas IDW had lower mean prediction errors and high correlations between predicted and measured values in all cases when sampling was every 5 m. The accurate spatial interpolations created using IDW allowed us to see the spatial variability of each taxa at a biological and spatial resolution that remote sensing would not have been able to produce. Our study sets the basis for further research projects and conservation management in Madagascar reef and encourages similar studies in the region and other parts of the world where remote sensing technologies are not suitable for use.